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At least 235 records · Page 13

Can Restoring Tidal Wetlands Reduce Estuarine Nuisance Flooding of Coasts Under Future Sea‐Level Rise?

Wetland restoration is an increasingly popular nature‐based method for flood risk mitigation in coastal communities. In this study, we present a novel method using hydrodynamic modeling and harmonic analysis to quantify wetlands' ability to reduce future nuisance flooding. The method leverages a hydrodynamic model calibrated to present day data and was run for a range of future sea‐level rise (SLR) and wetland restoration scenarios to quantify changes to tidal harmonic amplitudes and phases. The harmonic constituents are used to generate water surface elevations over a time period of interest (e.g., one year) and compared to critical exceedance thresholds such as levee elevations. Then, changes to nuisance flooding are calculated by counting the number of hours critical thresholds are exceeded under different SLR and wetland restoration scenarios. We applied the method to Coos Bay, Oregon, USA as a test case. We found restoration reduces the number of hours nuisance flooding occurs in downtown Coos Bay from 15 hr (present day conditions) to 0 hr (fully restored condition) under median SLR (82 cm by 2100). Restoration had spatially variable impacts on reducing peak flood elevations with minimal impacts near the estuary mouth and greatest impact 32 km inland. The effectiveness of restoration was heavily dependent on future SLR. Restoration was maximally effective in 2050 under all SLR scenarios, less effective in 2100 under median SLR, and not effective under high SLR. Modeling results suggest increased tidal prism and accommodation space are driving restoration‐associated reductions in tidal amplitudes.

Brand, Matthew W. [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Ro↗

Evaluation of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height From Wind Profiling Radar and Slab Models and Its Responses to Seasonality of Land Cover, Subsidence, and Advection

In this study, we evaluated the effect of land cover, atmospheric subsidence, and advection on the annual dynamics of atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) height from two contrasting sites. The first site is the Walker Branch forest, a deciduous forest of temperate climate, complex topography, and cloudy summers. The second site is the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, a site of Mediterranean climate, flat terrain on a local scale, and clear summers. After testing a new algorithm to calculate ABL heights from 915 MHz radar wind profilers, we evaluated a hierarchy of three slab models to recreate the diurnal and annual patterns of ABL growth. We found that the lower ABL heights in the Delta, particularly during late summer, are driven by the combined effects of increased atmospheric subsidence and marine air advection. In both sites, the annual pattern of ABL height was strongly correlated to total daily incoming radiation, and in the Delta, the annual pattern of ABL height closely followed the seasonal patterns of sensible heat flux from a mosaic of different land covers. A land composite of latent and sensible heat fluxes obtained through a meso-network of eddy covariance measurements and the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) mission resulted in higher model skill, thus showing that land cover heterogeneity is an important driver of ABL growth. To conclude, model simulations show that in the Delta, restoring agricultural land to wetlands with large open water areas could result in a reduction of ABL height during those months with low subsidence and advection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Iron mineral dissolution releases iron and associated organic carbon during permafrost thaw

It has been shown that reactive soil minerals, specifically iron(III) (oxyhydr)oxides, can trap organic carbon in soils overlying intact permafrost, and may limit carbon mobilization and degradation as it is observed in other environments. However, the use of iron(III)-bearing minerals as terminal electron acceptors in permafrost environments, and thus their stability and capacity to prevent carbon mobilization during permafrost thaw, is poorly understood. We have followed the dynamic interactions between iron and carbon using a space-for-time approach across a thaw gradient in Abisko (Sweden), where wetlands are expanding rapidly due to permafrost thaw. We show through bulk (selective extractions, EXAFS) and nanoscale analysis (correlative SEM and nanoSIMS) that organic carbon is bound to reactive Fe primarily in the transition between organic and mineral horizons in palsa underlain by intact permafrost (41.8 ±10.8 mg carbon per g soil, 9.9 to 14.8% of total soil organic carbon). During permafrost thaw, water-logging and O 2 limitation lead to reducing conditions and an increase in abundance of Fe(III)-reducing bacteria which favor mineral dissolution and drive mobilization of both iron and carbon along the thaw gradient. By providing a terminal electron acceptor, this rusty carbon sink is effectively destroyed along the thaw gradient and cannot prevent carbon release with thaw.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Approaches for effective negative pressure isolation space control to minimize airborne transmission of contaminants in residential homes

Controlling airborne transmission of contaminants including respired viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 is necessary to protect occupants living in the same house with a contagious person. The effectiveness of interventions requiring minor efforts that create a negative pressure isolation zone (IZ) for a contagious person has yet to be systematically tested for residential homes. In this study, ASHRAE Standard 170, which offers guidance for negative pressure isolation space control in healthcare facilities, was used in developing practical and attainable recommendations for residential single-family homes. The relative effectiveness of several control strategies was evaluated through experimentally conducting 17 different test cases in a manufactured single-family house laboratory. These cases were designed based on various heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) operating scenarios, intervention measures including closing the IZ door and/or sealing over supply and return air grilles in the IZ, and utilization of bathroom exhaust or portable window fans for pressure control. Four out of 17 test cases were identified as having the potential for strong containment with adequate depressurization in the IZ. The most effective IZ depressurization was achieved through continuously operating the exhaust fan in the bathroom attached to the IZ, by installing a portable window fan that extracted air out of the IZ, and a portable room air conditioner with the AC unit exhaust duct installed in one of the IZ windows.

Construction & Building Technology↗

Microbial Community Changes across Time and Space in a Constructed Wetland

Constructed wetlands are artificial ecosystems designed to replicate natural wetland processes. Microbial communities play a pivotal role in cycling essential elements, particularly sulfur, which is crucial for trace metal fixation and remobilization in these ecosystems. By their response to their environment, microbial communities act as biological indicators of the wetland performance. To address knowledge gaps pertinent to the changes in trace metal bioavailability in relation to microbial activities in the H-02 constructed wetland, we performed this study to investigate temporal and spatial variations in microbial communities by using molecular biology tools. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction and next generation sequencing techniques were employed to analyze archaeal and bacterial groups associated with sulfur and methane cycling. Alpha diversity indices were used to assess species richness, evenness, and dominance. Results indicated high gene abundance of Desulfuromonas (5.37 × 10 6 g.cell –1 ), methane oxidizing bacteria (6.92 × 10 6 g.cell –1 ), and methanogenic microorganisms (3.02 × 10 5 g.cell –1 ) during cool months. Warm months were marked by sulfate reducing bacteria dominance (3.31 × 10 6 g.cell –1 ), potentially due to competitive interactions and environmental conditions, higher temperatures, and lower redox potential. Spatial variability among microbial groups was insignificant, but trends in gene abundance indicated complex factors influencing these groups. Next generation sequencing data demonstrated Firmicutes as the most abundant phylum with over 50% regardless of the season or sampling location. Cool months exhibited higher alpha diversity than warm months. Overall, this study showed that seasonal changes significantly impacted the microbial communities in the H-02 constructed wetland that are associated with the sulfur cycle and eventually trace metal biogeochemistry, revealing two distinct mechanisms of the sulfur cycle between the two main seasons, whereas spatial variability effects were not conclusive.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

From calibration to parameter learning: Harnessing the scaling effects of big data in geoscientific modeling

Abstract The behaviors and skills of models in many geosciences (e.g., hydrology and ecosystem sciences) strongly depend on spatially-varying parameters that need calibration. A well-calibrated model can reasonably propagate information from observations to unobserved variables via model physics, but traditional calibration is highly inefficient and results in non-unique solutions. Here we propose a novel differentiable parameter learning (dPL) framework that efficiently learns a global mapping between inputs (and optionally responses) and parameters. Crucially, dPL exhibits beneficial scaling curves not previously demonstrated to geoscientists: as training data increases, dPL achieves better performance, more physical coherence, and better generalizability (across space and uncalibrated variables), all with orders-of-magnitude lower computational cost. We demonstrate examples that learned from soil moisture and streamflow, where dPL drastically outperformed existing evolutionary and regionalization methods, or required only ~12.5% of the training data to achieve similar performance. The generic scheme promotes the integration of deep learning and process-based models, without mandating reimplementation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advancing the Understanding of Snow Accumulation, Melting, and Associated Thermal Insulation Using Spatially Dense Snow Depth and Temperature Time Series

Snow thermal insulation is a critical factor influencing ground thermal dynamics and associated biogeochemical processes. We analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of snow accumulation, melting, and thermal insulation dynamics using spatially dense, collocated snow depth and ground interface temperature time series over two consecutive years. We demonstrated that considering late‐winter snow depth alone was insufficient to fully capture the complexity in snow and insulation dynamics. The influence of vegetation and topography on snow depth distribution varied over the season, across sites and years. We found that deep snow with a long melting period had a substantial impact on thawing n‐factors. To better predict snow insulation effects, we proposed a new weighted snow depth metric that integrates mean daily snow depth and air temperature throughout the cold season. Our results provide insights for developing space‐time remote sensing products and evaluating the representation of snow and permafrost processes in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Multiscale Simulation Study of the Effects of Nantucket Island on Atmospheric Boundary Layer Flow

Multiscale atmospheric simulations were conducted to investigate how Nantucket Island modifies the marine atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flow, how the mechanisms responsible are represented in mesoscale versus large-eddy simulation (LES) domains, and potential impacts on wind energy production downstream, in moderate and high wind speed cases. Here, to isolate the effects of the island, each case study was simulated (i) with and without island topography included and (ii) with observed versus spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) values, the latter removing the influence of spatial variability in SST, while also enabling the examination of how the island effects vary with near-surface thermodynamic stability over the surrounding ocean. Island effects were found to be strongest during daytime heating, which generates convective rolls that redistribute momentum vertically over the island and downstream. Colder SSTs and weaker winds strengthen these rolls and extend their influence. Flow statistics within a representative wind turbine rotor-swept area downstream show that while vertical momentum redistribution enhances near-surface wind speeds, those aloft decrease, resulting in minimal net change to rotor-equivalent wind speed and slightly reduced vertical shear. Comparisons of mesoscale and LES domains reveal that both capture the roughness-driven near-surface slowdown, but mesoscale models underestimate vertical momentum transport compared to LES, which explicitly resolves convective rolls. Increasing LES resolution beyond the grid spacing required to begin capturing the largest convective roll structures ∼ O(100) m yields minimal additional momentum transport but increases resolved turbulence kinetic energy, relevant for stress loading.

Atmosphere-land interaction↗

Numerical investigations to identify environmental factors for field-scale reactive transport of pathogens at riverbank filtration sites

While induced bank filtration is a proven method for facilitating sustainable drinking water production, it is at risk from surface water contaminations (e.g., pathogens). Induced bank filtration and pathogen transport in groundwater have been studied extensively. However, long-term studies that consider real-world conditions are missing. These conditions include seasonal changes to environmental conditions and waterworks operations. Therefore, to analyze the effect of seasonal changes on the transport of human pathogenic viruses and their indicators in induced bank filtration, concentrations of adenoviruses and pathogen indicators were monitored over 16 months at an active bank filtration plant at the Rhine River, in Düsseldorf (Germany). Based on this data, a 2D groundwater model was created in PFLOTRAN that simulated flow, heat transport, conservative transport of chloride and the resulting electrical conductivity, reactive transport of oxygen and nitrate, and colloid-based transport of coliforms, somatic coliphages, and adenoviruses. The results show that reduced travel time was the key factor determining periods with a low removal of coliforms and somatic coliphages in the aquifer. Travel time was controlled by river level variations during rainy seasons, and the waterworks extraction rates during dry seasons. Further, for adenovirus transport, travel distance in the subsurface appeared to be the key factor, while travel time had no significant impact. Coliform removal increased when the colmation layer permeability decreased, while coliphage and adenovirus removal was unaffected by the colmation layer permeability. Seasonal changes in temperature and oxygen content did not significantly impact the removal of coliphages and adenoviruses in groundwater. Denitrifying conditions correlated with a lowered coliform removal, but the modelling could not establish a connection between denitrifying conditions and coliform removal. Our study showed that removal of pathogens and pathogen indicators at induced bank filtration plants varies greatly in time and space (e.g., for coliforms from 1 to 4 log-levels at 20m travel distance), and that adenovirus transport differs considerably from transport of coliforms and somatic coliphages.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Ames National Laboratory Annual Site Environmental Report for CY2021

The primary purpose of this report is to summarize the performance of Ames National Laboratory’s environmental programs, present highlights of significant environmental activities, and confirm compliance with environmental regulations and requirements for calendar year 2021. This report is a working requirement of Department of Energy Order 231.1B, Environment, Safety and Health Reporting. It includes descriptions of the Laboratory’s site, mission, the status of its compliance with applicable environmental regulations, its planning and activities to maintain compliance, and a comprehensive review of its environmental protection, surveillance and monitoring activities. Ames National Laboratory is located on the campus of Iowa State University (ISU) and occupies 13 buildings owned by the Department of Energy (DOE). See the Laboratory’s Web page for location and Laboratory overview. The Laboratory also leases space in ISU owned buildings. In 2021, the Laboratory accumulated and disposed of hazardous waste under a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued generator number. All waste was handled according to applicable EPA, State, and local regulations and DOE Orders. The Laboratory operates as a Small Quantity Generator (SQG) of hazardous waste. There were no radiological air emissions or exposures to the general public due to Laboratory activities in 2021 (See U.S. Department of Energy Air Emissions Annual Report in Appendix A.) The Laboratory has an established Environmental Radiological Protection Program (Plan 10200.041) per DOE Order 458.1 requirements. Plans, policies, and procedures are in place to protect the public and the environment against undue risk from radiation associated with DOE radiological activities. As indicated in prior Site Environmental Reports, formal pollution prevention awareness, waste minimization and recycling programs have been in practice since 1990, with improvements implemented most recently in 2017 with Iowa State University’s shift toward single-stream recycling. Included in recycling efforts are items such as batteries, monitors, corrugated cardboard, lamps, miscellaneous electronic office equipment, mixed paper, newsprint, food/beverage containers, and laboratory glassware. Ames National Laboratory also recycles/reuses salvageable metal, used oil, and foamed polystyrene peanuts, and encourages chemical redistribution and sharing among research groups. Ames National Laboratory reported its contractual performance to DOE-Ames Site Office (AMSO) through the Laboratory’s Performance Evaluation Measurement Plan (PEMP), and a performance level of “B+” was achieved in 2021 for Sustain Excellence and Enhance Effectiveness of Integrated Safety, Health, and Environmental Protection As reported in Site Environmental Reports for prior years, the Laboratory’s Environmental Management System (EMS) has been integrated into the Laboratory’s Integrated Safety Management System (ISMS) since 2005. The integration of EMS into Laboratory business practices allows the Laboratory to systematically review, address and respond to environmental impacts. In addition to DOE-identified objectives and targets, the EMS Steering Committee recommends annual environmental goals for the Laboratory. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and limited onsite work staff, goals of reducing water usage and travel/commuting to promote the reduction of scope 3 greenhouse gases were achieved. All contract deliverables and environmental compliance activities were still met during this time.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Importance of viewing angle: Hotspot effect improves the ability of satellites to track terrestrial photosynthesis

The product of near-infrared reflectance of vegetation and photosynthetic active radiation (NIRvP) is a new tool for monitoring gross primary productivity (GPP) dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems, due to the discovered linear correlation between NIRvP and GPP. While remote sensing-based NIRvP is considerably influenced by sensor geometry, such geometry impacts on the NIRvP-GPP relationship remain underexplored. In this study, we calculate NIRvP using observations from the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) that provide unique hotspot observation geometry in which the sensor viewing angle coincides with the sun direction. We evaluated the linear correlation between NIRvP and GPP in both the common nadir direction and the special hotspot direction. The results indicate that NIRvP in the hotspot direction significantly outperforms that in the nadir direction for tracking GPP variations across different ecosystems from diurnal to daily scales. This conclusion is further supported by data from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and simulations using the Soil Canopy Observation Photosynthesis Energy (SCOPE) model. Finally, our research highlights the value of using the unconventional hotspot-based sun-tracking satellite observations for a more accurate characterization of GPP dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanistic Study of Controlled Zinc Electrodeposition Behaviors Facilitated by Nanoscale Electrolyte Additives at the Electrode Interface

Nanoparticle organic hybrid materials (NOHMs) are liquid-like materials composed of an inorganic core to which a polymeric canopy is ionically tethered. NOHMs have unique properties including negligible vapor pressure, high oxidative thermal stability, and the ability to bind to reactive species of interest due to the tunability of their polymeric canopy. This makes them promising multifunctional materials for a wide range of energy and environmental technologies, including electrolyte additives for electrochemical energy storage (e.g., flow batteries) and the electrochemical conversion of CO 2 to chemicals and fuels. Due to their unique transport behaviors in fluid systems, an understanding of the near-electrode surface behavior of NOHMs in electrolyte solutions and their effect on electrochemical reactions is still lacking. In this work, the complexation of zinc (Zn) by NOHMs with an ionically tethered polyetheramine canopy (HPE) (NOHM-I-HPE) was studied using attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared and Carbon-13 nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Additionally, various electrochemical techniques were employed to discern the role of NOHM-I-HPE during zinc electrodeposition, and the results were compared to those of the electrochemical system containing untethered HPE polymers. Our findings confirmed that NOHM-I-HPE and HPE reversibly complex zinc in the aqueous electrolyte. NOHM-I-HPE and HPE were found to block some of the electrode active sites, reducing the overall current density during electrodeposition, while facilitating the formation of smooth zinc deposits, as revealed by surface imaging and diffraction techniques. Observed variations in the current density responses and the degree of passivation created by the NOHM-I-HPE and HPE adsorbed on the electrode surface revealed that their different packing behaviors at the electrode–electrolyte interface influence the zinc deposition mechanism. The presence of the nanoparticle and ordering offered by the NOHMs as well as the structured conformation of the polymeric canopy allowed the formation of void spaces and free volumes for enhanced transport behaviors. Furthermore, these findings provided insights into how structured electrolyte additives such as NOHMs can allow for advancements in electrolyte design for controlled deposition of metal species from energy-dense electrolytes or for other electrochemical reactions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Development of Future Heatwaves for Different Hazard Thresholds

In 2018 and 2019, heatwaves set all-time temperature records around the world and caused adverse effects on human health, agriculture, natural ecosystems, and infrastructure. Often, severe impacts relate to the joint spatial and temporal extent of the heatwaves, but most research so far focuses either on spatial or temporal attributes of heatwaves. Furthermore, sensitivity of heatwaves characteristics to the choice of the heatwave thresholds in a warming climate are rarely discussed. Here, we analyze the largest spatiotemporal moderate heatwaves—that is, three-dimensional (space-time) clusters of hot days—in simulations of global climate models. We use three different hazard thresholds to define a hot day: fixed thresholds (time-invariant climatological thresholds), seasonally moving thresholds based on changes in the summer means, and fully moving thresholds (hot days defined relative to the future climatology). We find a substantial increase of spatiotemporally contiguous moderate heatwaves with global warming using fixed thresholds, whereas changes for the other two hazard thresholds are much less pronounced. In particular, no or very little changes in the overall magnitude, spatial extent, and duration are detected when heatwaves are defined relative to the future climatology using a temporally fully moving threshold. This suggests a dominant contribution of thermodynamic compared to dynamic effects in global climate model simulations. The similarity between seasonally moving and fully moving thresholds indicates that seasonal mean warming alone can explain large parts of the warming of extremes. The strong sensitivity of simulated future heatwaves to hazard thresholds should be considered in the projections of potential future heat-related impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Finding of Effect, And Mitigation Documentation for Building 23-620, Mercury, Area 23, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) plans to demolish Building 23-620 in the town of Mercury (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15283), which is on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada (see Figure 1). The purpose of the undertaking is related to the modernization of Mercury for future mission needs. The NNSA/NFO will implement this undertaking in accordance with the Programmatic Agreement between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA. Building 23-620 was built in 1968 as office space for the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory (LASL), who worked on the design and engineering of nuclear weapons. In the 1990s, it became a maintenance facility for Reynolds Electrical & Engineering Company (REECo), and eventually, it became the Real Estate Services building in 2004. The town of Mercury and the immediate surrounding area have been formally determined eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (National Register, NRHP) as the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource No. D230) under Criteria A and C for its importance in supporting nuclear testing and scientific research from 1951 through 1992. Building 23-620 was identified as a contributing element to the MHD in a 2018 architectural survey of the district (Reno et al.) and recorded on a Nevada Architectural Resource Assessment (ARA) form (Reno et al. 2017). Building 23-620 was also identified in Appendix C of the Mercury PA as a Category I contributing element, indicating that it might be individually eligible for the NRHP. It is a historic property for the purposes of compliance with Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) and subject to the stipulations of the Mercury PA. Mitigation Report: The purpose of this letter report is to submit documentation related to the mitigation of the demolition of Building 23-620 (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15283) in the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource No. D230). This submission is intended to comply with the stipulations in the Programmatic Agreement between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada, hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Organic carbon enables the biotic engineering of beneficial soil structure in Profundihumic and Haplic Ferralsols

We investigated how organic matter may, directly and indirectly, modify the porosity of Ferralsols, that is, deeply weathered soils of the tropics and subtropics. Although empirical and anecdotal evidence suggests that organic matter accumulation may increase porosity, a mechanistic understanding of the processes underlying this beneficial effect is lacking, especially so for Ferralsols. To achieve our end, we leveraged the fact that the Profundihumic qualifier of Ferralsols (PF) is distinguished from Haplic Ferralsols (HF) by both a much larger average carbon content in the first 1 m of soil depth (19 kg C m -3 in PF vs. 10 kg C m -3 in HF) and a significantly lower bulk density (1.05 ± 0.08 kg L -1 in PF vs. 1.21 ± 0.05 kg L -1 in HF). Through exhaustive modelling of carbon – bulk density relationships, we demonstrate that the lower bulk density of PF cannot be satisfactorily explained by a simple dilution effect. Rather, we found that bulk density correlated with carbon content when combined with carbon: nitrogen ratio (r 2 = 0.51), black carbon content (r 2 = 0.75), and Δ 14 C (r 2 =0.81). Total pore space was greater in PF (61± 3%) than in HF (55 ± 2%), but x-ray computed tomography revealed that pore space inside soil aggregates of 4–5 mm diameter does not vary between the studied Ferralsols. We further observed nearly twice as many roots and burrows in PF compared with HF. We thus infer that the mechanism responsible for the increase in porosity is most likely an enhancement of resource availability (e.g., energy, carbon, and nutrients) for the organisms (earthworms, ants, termites, etc.) that physically displace soil particles and promote soil aggregation. As a result of increased resource availability, soil organisms can create especially the mesoscale structural soil features necessary for unrestricted water flow and rapid gas exchange. In conclusion, this insight paves the way for the development of land management technologies to optimize the physical shape and capacity of the soil bioreactor.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparing multi-model ensemble simulations with observations and decadal projections of upper atmospheric variations following the Hunga eruption

The Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai Model–Observation Comparison (HTHH–MOC) project aims to comprehensively investigate the evolution of volcanic water vapor and sulfur emissions and their subsequent atmospheric impacts and underlying response mechanisms using state-of-the-art global climate models. This study evaluates multi-model ensemble simulations participating in the HTHH–MOC free-run experiment with climate projections for 10 years (2022–2032). Model results are evaluated against satellite observations to assess their ability to reproduce the observed evolution of stratospheric water vapor, aerosols, temperature, and ozone from 2022 to 2024. The participating models accurately capture the observed distribution patterns and associated upper atmospheric responses, providing confidence for their future projections. Model simulations suggest that the Hunga eruption-induced stratospheric water vapor anomaly lasts 4–7 years, with a water vapor e-folding time of 31–43 months. This prolonged water vapor perturbation leads to significant stratospheric and mesospheric cooling, resulting in significant ozone loss in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere for 7–10 years. Comparisons between simulations with both SO 2 and H 2 O emissions and those with H 2 O-only emissions indicate that the pronounced dipole response with upper-stratospheric cooling and lower-stratospheric warming is driven by the combined effects of SO 2 and H 2 O injections. These results highlight the prolonged atmospheric impacts of the Hunga eruption and the potential critical role of stratospheric water vapor in modulating long-term atmospheric chemistry and dynamics.

Zhuo, Zhihong [Univ. of Quebec, Montreal, QC (Cana↗

Simulating Atmospheric Processes in Earth System Models and Quantifying Uncertainties With Deep Learning Multi‐Member and Stochastic Parameterizations

Abstract Deep learning is a powerful tool to represent subgrid processes in climate models, but many application cases have so far used idealized settings and deterministic approaches. Here, we develop stochastic parameterizations with calibrated uncertainty quantification to learn subgrid convective and turbulent processes and surface radiative fluxes of a superparameterization embedded in an Earth System Model (ESM). We explore three methods to construct stochastic parameterizations: (a) a single Deep Neural Network (DNN) with Monte Carlo Dropout; (b) a multi‐member parameterization; and (c) a Variational Encoder Decoder with latent space perturbation. We show that the multi‐member parameterization improves the representation of convective processes, especially in the planetary boundary layer, compared to individual DNNs. The respective uncertainty quantification illustrates that methods (b) and (c) are advantageous compared to a dropout‐based DNN parameterization regarding the spread of convective processes. Hybrid simulations with our best‐performing multi‐member parameterizations remained challenging and crash within the first days. Therefore, we develop a pragmatic partial coupling strategy relying on the superparameterization for condensate emulation. Partial coupling reduces the computational efficiency of hybrid Earth‐like simulations but enables model stability over 5 months with our multi‐member parameterizations. However, our hybrid simulations exhibit biases in thermodynamic fields and differences in precipitation patterns. Despite this, the multi‐member parameterizations enable improvements in reproducing tropical extreme precipitation compared to a traditional convection parameterization. Despite these challenges, our results indicate the potential of a new generation of multi‐member machine learning parameterizations leveraging uncertainty quantification to improve the representation of stochasticity of subgrid effects.

Behrens, Gunnar [Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und R↗