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NASA NTRS2022

Space Weather Modeling and Prediction for Intermediate Time-scales

Much of solar activity within a sunspot cycle occurs as bursts, or 'seasons' of strong activity over several months, separated by periods of much less activity. The most important space weather effects occur during these bursts. Previous modeling and forecasting efforts have focused on time-scales of hours-to-days and decades-to-centuries. The recent discovery of Rossby waves in the Sun, together with recently developed global models of solar MHD Rossby waves and their interactions with differential rotation and spot-producing magnetic fields, reveal the opportunity to simulate and predict the occurrence, strength and location of enhanced activity bursts a few weeks up to several months in advance. We now have a golden opportunity to fill in this gap in time-scales of forecasting space weather. This requires a) continuous observations of solar Rossby waves by various techniques; b) development of coupled nonlinear MHD models that simulate both global Rossby waves and the much smaller spatial scale emergence of new active regions; c) application of advanced data assimilation techniques to couple surface observations to update the model-system to integrate forward in time for creating forecasts months ahead. Then it will be possible to build operational prediction models to meet the needs of customers and stakeholders, including support of future NASA missions, regarding what kind and level of space weather to expect a few weeks to several months ahead.

SMD↗

NASA NTRS2011

Space Weathering Impact on Solar System Surfaces and Planetary Mission Science

We often look "through a glass, darkly" at solar system bodies with tenuous atmospheres and direct surface exposure to the local space environment. Space weathering exposure acts via universal space-surface interaction processes to produce a thin patina of outer material covering, potentially obscuring endogenic surface materials of greatest interest for understanding origins and interior evolution. Examples of obscuring exogenic layers are radiation crusts on cometary nuclei and iogenic components of sulfate hydrate deposits on the trailing hemisphere of Europa. Weathering processes include plasma ion implantation into surfaces, sputtering by charged particles and solar ultraviolet photons, photolytic chemistry driven by UV irradiation, and radiolytic chemistry evolving from products of charged particle irradiation. Regolith structure from impacts, and underlying deeper structures from internal evolution, affects efficacy of certain surface interactions, e.g. sputtering as affected by porosity and surface irradiation dosage as partly attenuated by local topographic shielding. These processes should be regarded for mission science planning as potentially enabling, e.g. since direct surface sputtering, and resultant surface-bound exospheres, can provide in-situ samples of surface composition to ion and neutral mass spectrometers on orbital spacecraft. Sample return for highest sensitivity compOSitional and structural analyses at Earth will usually be precluded by limited range of surface sampling, long times for return, and high cost. Targeted advancements in instrument technology would be more cost efficient for local remote and in-situ sample analysis. More realistic laboratory simulations, e.g. for bulk samples, are needed to interpret mission science observations of weathered surfaces. Space environment effects on mission spacecraft and science operations must also be specified and mitigated from the hourly to monthly changes in space weather and from longer term (e.g., solar cycle) evolution of space climate. Capable instrumentation on planetary missions can and should be planned to contribute to knowledge of interplanetary space environments. Evolving data system technologies such as virtual observatories should be explored for more interdisciplinary application to the science of planetary surface, atmospheric, magnetospheric, and interplanetary interactions.

Cooper, John F.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Space Weathering of Ordinary Chondrite Parent Bodies, Its Impact on the Method of Distinguishing H, L, and LL Types and Implications for Itokawa Samples Returned by the Hayabusa Mission

As the most abundance meteorites in our collections, ordinary chondrites potentially have very important implications on the origin and formation of our Solar System. In order to map the distribution of ordinary chondrite-like asteroids through remote sensing, the space weathering effects of ordinary chondrite parent bodies must be addressed through experiments and modeling. Of particular importance is the impact on distinguishing different types (H/L/LL) of ordinary chondrites. In addition, samples of asteroid Itokawa returned by the Hayabusa spacecraft may re~ veal the mechanism of space weathering on an LLchondrite parent body. Results of space weathering simulations on ordinary chondrites and implications for Itokawa samples are presented here.

Hiroi, T.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Tutorial: Models and Tools at the CCMC for Space Weather Research and Education

Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is hosting an expanding collection of space weather models covering the entire domain from the solar corona to the Earth’s lower atmosphere. The tutorial will present examples of CCMC models utilization in different research projects and demonstrate how CCMC tools and systems can be utilized in research and education. The presentation will also include highlights of International Space Weather Action Teams Initiatives and discuss opportunities for early career scientists. The presentation will be followed by hands-on demo of CCMC tools and systems.

Maria Kuznetsova↗

NASA NTRS2017

Transmission Electron Microscopy of Plagioclase-Rich Itokawa Grains: Space Weathering Effects and Solar Flare Track Exposure Ages

Limited samples are available for the study of space weathering effects on airless bodies. The grains returned by the Hayabusa mission to asteroid 25143 Itokawa provide the only samples currently available to study space weathering of ordinary chondrite regolith. We have previously studied olivine-rich Itokawa grains and documented their surface alteration and exposure ages based on the observed density of solar flare particle tracks. Here we focus on the rarer Itokawa plagioclase grains, in order to allow comparisons between Itokawa and lunar soil plagioclase grains for which an extensive data set exists.

Keller, Lindsay P.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling of Multiscale Solar Dynamics for Understanding Drivers of Space Weather

Understanding the solar dynamics is critical for improving our capabilities to forecast the evolution of space weather conditions. We take advantage of currently available computational capabilities to model solar dynamics from the deep interior to the corona and investigate mechanisms that may drive space weather conditions. The simulations are performed using the 3D radiative MHD code StellarBox. Comparison of synthetic spectroscopic observables obtained from numerical simulations and actual observations allows us to uncover physical processes associated with observed phenomena. To facilitate a transition from modeling short-term physical phenomena to developing a reliable forecast-oriented model, we suggest using the data assimilation approach. It allows us to cross-analyze dynamo model solutions and observations and to consider possible uncertainties and errors. In this presentation, we briefly summarize current multi-scale modeling capabilities and results and discuss ongoing developments to build a reliable physics-based forecast-oriented model of solar activity.

Irina N Kitiashvili↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling of Multiscale Solar Dynamics for Understanding Drivers of Space Weather

Irina N Kitiashvili↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling of Multiscale Solar Dynamics for Understanding Drivers of Space Weather

Irina N. Kitiashvili↗

NASA NTRS2023

Space Weathering of Genesis Mission Solar-wind Collectors with Inferences for Weathering on Airless Bodies

Samples from the Genesis Solar Wind Sample Return (NASA Discovery 5) are a unique opportunity to study the initial stages of space weathering, i.e., the physical and chemical effects of solar-wind irradiation. Arrays of collectors containing multiple materials were each exposed to a different solar-wind regime (fast, slow, bulk, or coronal mass ejection) at the L1 point for long durations (years). Materials exposed to the solar wind included metals, semiconductors, and insulators. Although the time of exposure was obviously short relative to samples having extraterrestrial origins, optical properties, surface chemical properties, and matrix structure have changed in many collectors due to exposure to solar wind. The thickness of amorphous zones, where present, appears to correspond with the depth of the peak of the solar-wind H distribution in each regime. Damage from high-energy particles was negligible because the collectors were 700 μm or less in thickness and shielded from the back by the spacecraft. Micrometeorite impacts and sputtering were also negligible because of the short exposure times. Our current results are preliminary: We hope future workers will extend this study both to support Genesis characterization efforts and to further understand space-weathering processes on a geologic timescale.

space weathering↗

NASA NTRS2016

Global Positioning System Energetic Particle Data: The Next Space Weather Data Revolution

The Global Positioning System (GPS) has revolutionized the process of getting from point A to point Band so much more. A large fraction of the worlds population relies on GPS (and its counterparts from other nations) for precision timing, location, and navigation. Most GPS users are unaware that the spacecraft providing the signals they rely on are operating in a very harsh space environment the radiation belts where energetic particles trapped in Earths magnetic field dash about at nearly the speed of light. These subatomic particles relentlessly pummel GPS satellites. So by design, every GPS satellite and its sensors are radiation hardened. Each spacecraft carries particle detectors that provide health and status data to system operators. Although these data reveal much about the state of the space radiation environment, heretofore they have been available only to system operators and supporting scientists. Research scientists have long sought a policy shift to allow more general access. With the release of the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan organized by the White House Office of Science Technology Policy (OSTP) a sample of these data have been made available to space weather researchers. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and the National Center for Environmental Information released a months worth of GPS energetic particle data from an interval of heightened space weather activity in early 2014 with the hope of stimulating integration of these data sets into the research arena. Even before the public data release GPS support scientists from LANL showed the extraordinary promise of these data.

Knipp, Delores J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Near-Real Time Data for Space Weather Analyses: Present Status and Future

Assessments of the present state and future evolution of the space environment heavily relies on timely access to appropriate environmental measurements. These, near real-time (nrt), measurements provide a direct assessment of local or remote space environment conditions, they contribute to a more global description of Space Weather parameters through assimilative models, and they provide essential input into forecasting models. Unlike meteorology, however, the provision of these data is not a mainstream activity in the sense that critical space environment data are often derived from research rather than operational sensors. In addition, space research is a relatively immature field, where SUbstantial gaps in our knowledge impede our ability to optimally use available data streams. In this presentation, we provide examples of presently employed nrt data streams and their utility. We further discuss challenges and opportunities associated with the present approach to space weather forecasting. Finally, an outlook toward the future will be presented.

Hesse, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2011

Space Weathering Effects in Lunar Soils: The Roles of Surface Exposure Time and Bulk Chemical Composition

Space weathering effects on lunar soil grains result from both radiation-damaged and deposited layers on grain surfaces. Typically, solar wind irradiation forms an amorphous layer on regolith silicate grains, and induces the formation of surficial metallic Fe in Fe-bearing minerals [1,2]. Impacts into the lunar regolith generate high temperature melts and vapor. The vapor component is largely deposited on the surfaces of lunar soil grains [3] as is a fraction of the melt [4, this work]. Both the vapor-deposits and the deposited melt typically contain nanophase Fe metal particles (npFe0) as abundant inclusions. The development of these rims and the abundance of the npFe0 in lunar regolith, and thus the optical properties, vary with the soil mineralogy and the length of time the soil grains have been exposed to space weathering effects [5]. In this study, we used the density of solar flare particle tracks in soil grains to estimate exposure times for individual grains and then perform nanometer-scale characterization of the rims using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The work involved study of lunar soil samples with different mineralogy (mare vs. highland) and different exposure times (mature vs. immature).

Zhang, Shouliang↗

NASA NTRS2020

Thermal Decomposition of the Murchison CM2 Carbonaceous Chondrite: Implications of Space Weathering Processes for Sample Return Missions

Primitive carbonaceous asteroids are the target bodies for the JAXA Hayabusa2 mission to Ryugu and the NASA OSIRIS-REx mission to Bennu. Both asteroids share spectral characteristics of CI/CM type carbonaceous chondrites. Ryugu, in particular, appears to have undergone thermal processing that has modified its spectral properties. The nature and extent of space weathering processes on the surfaces of Bennu and Ryugu are under active investigation using remote sensing data from the missions [4] and through laboratory studies on analog materials. The analog studies are needed in order to understand the mineralogical and chemical changes that occur in space weathered samples that give rise to the observed optical effects measured by remote-sensing and to prepare for the analysis of returned samples. The space weathering effects of micrometeorite impact and solar wind irradiation on primitive carbonaceous chondrites have been simulated by analog studies on the Murchison CM2 chondrite. We performed a coordinated mineralogical, chemical and spectroscopic study to examine in detail the effects of thermal metamorphism on Murchison samples as an analog to processes that may have occurred on Ryugu. The bulk measurements including X-ray diffraction (XRD), Mössbauer spectroscopy, UV-VIS-NIR spectroscopy, thermogravimetric analysis, and evolved gas analysis are reported in a companion paper. Here we report on our preliminary nanoscale mineralogical and chemical analyses of pre- and post-heated Murchison samples using multiple electron beam techniques to understand how the mineralogical, chemical, and physical characteristics of carbonaceous chondrites change with increasing thermal effects.

Lee, S.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms

Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram.

Falconer, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Laboratory Simulation of Space Weathering: ESR Measurements of Nanophase Metallic Iron in Laser-irradiated Olivine and Pyroxene Samples

S-type asteroids are believed to be parent bodies of ordinary chondrites. Although both S-type asteroids and ordinary chondrites contain the same mineral assemblage, mainly olivine and pyroxene, the reflectance spectra of the asteroids exhibit more overall depletion (darkening) and reddening, and more weakening of absorption bands relative to the meteorites. This spectral mismatch is explained by space weathering process, where high-velocity dust particle impacts should change the optical properties of the uppermost regolith surface of asteroids. In order to simulate the space weathering, we irradiated nanosecond pulse laser beam onto pellet samples of olivine (8.97wt% FeO) and pyroxene (enstatite: 9.88wt% FeO, hypersthene: 16.70wt%). We got spectral changes in our samples similar to that by space weathering on asteroids and confirmed nanophase alpha-metallic iron particles, which were theoretically predicted, not only on olivine but also on pyroxene samples by Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM). Nanophase metallic iron particles were widely scattered throughout the amorphous rims developed along the olivine grains, whereas they were embedded in aggregates of amorphous in enstatite samples. Recently, we also measured laser-irradiated samples by ESR (Electron Spin Resonance). Strong ESR signals, characteristic to nanophase iron particles, are observed on irradiated olivine samples. In this paper, we report the quantities of nanophase metallic iron particles in pyroxene samples by ESR observations in addition to olivine samples.

Kurahashi, E.↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Solar Dynamics Observatory and Its Contributions to Space Weather

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) was launched on 11 February 2010 and has worked flawlessly in its first year and a half of operation. SDO was the first mission launched for NASA's Living With a Star Program (LWS), so its focus is not only studying the causes and drivers of the variable Sun, but also how these variations force similar changes in the Earth and other objects within the Heliosphere. Due to SDO's many Space Weather goals, this presentation will not only show some of the recent, ground-breaking new results provided by SDO, but also focus on the real-time Space Weather advances provided by this spacecraft. A main theme throughout this talk will be methods and tools that researchers around the world can utilize to access and manipulate the SDO data real-time for both fundamental science and Space Weather monitoring purposes.

Chamberlin, Phillip C.↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Varying Core Magnetic Field from a Space Weather Perspective

This paper summarizes recent advances in our understanding of geomagnetism, and its relevance to terrestrial space weather. It also discusses specific core magnetic field features such as the dipole moment decay, the evolution of the South Atlantic anomaly, and the location of the magnetic poles that are of importance for the practice of space weather.

Core Field↗

NASA NTRS1998

Effects of Space Weathering on Lunar Rocks: Scanning Electron Microscope Petrography

Lunar rocks that have undergone direct exposure to the space weathering environment at the surface of the Moon commonly have patinas on their surfaces. Patinas are characterized by visible darkening and other changes in spectral properties of rocks. They form as a result of bombardment by micrometeorites, solar wind, and solar flares. Processes of space weathering and patina production have clearly been significant in the formation and history of the lunar regolith. It is very likely that other planetary bodies without atmospheres have undergone similar alteration processes; therefore, it is critical to determine the relationship between patinas and their host rocks in view of future robotic and remote-sensing missions to the Moon and other planetary bodies.

Wentworth, Susan J.↗