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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13

Pair Density Wave Order from Electron Repulsion

A pair density wave (PDW) is a superconductor whose order parameter is a periodic function of space, without an accompanying spatially uniform component. Since PDWs are not the outcome of a weak-coupling instability of a Fermi liquid, a generic pairing mechanism for PDW order has remained elusive. Here, we describe and solve models having robust PDW phases. To access the intermediate coupling limit, we invoke large-$N$ limits of Fermi liquids with repulsive BCS interactions that admit saddle point solutions. We show that the requirements for long-range PDW order are that the repulsive BCS couplings must be nonmonotonic in space and that their strength must exceed a threshold value. We obtain a phase diagram with both finite temperature transitions to PDW order and a $T = 0$ quantum critical point, where non-Fermi liquid behavior occurs.

2-dimensional systems↗

Cell‐type‐specific transcriptomics uncovers spatial regulatory networks in bioenergy sorghum stems

SUMMARY Bioenergy sorghum is a low‐input, drought‐resilient, deep‐rooting annual crop that has high biomass yield potential enabling the sustainable production of biofuels, biopower, and bioproducts. Bioenergy sorghum's 4–5 m stems account for ~80% of the harvested biomass. Stems accumulate high levels of sucrose that could be used to synthesize bioethanol and useful biopolymers if information about cell‐type gene expression and regulation in stems was available to enable engineering. To obtain this information, laser capture microdissection was used to isolate and collect transcriptome profiles from five major cell types that are present in stems of the sweet sorghum Wray. Transcriptome analysis identified genes with cell‐type‐specific and cell‐preferred expression patterns that reflect the distinct metabolic, transport, and regulatory functions of each cell type. Analysis of cell‐type‐specific gene regulatory networks (GRNs) revealed that unique transcription factor families contribute to distinct regulatory landscapes, where regulation is organized through various modes and identifiable network motifs. Cell‐specific transcriptome data was combined with known secondary cell wall (SCW) networks to identify the GRNs that differentially activate SCW formation in vascular sclerenchyma and epidermal cells. The spatial transcriptomic dataset provides a valuable source of information about the function of different sorghum cell types and GRNs that will enable the engineering of bioenergy sorghum stems, and an interactive web application developed during this project will allow easy access and exploration of the data ( https://mc‐lab.shinyapps.io/lcm‐dataset/ ).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Redefining precision interferometry and spectroscopy with high-performance optical interference coatings

High-performance optical interference coatings have transformed precision interferometry and spectroscopy by enabling unparalleled control over light–matter interactions. This review explores recent innovations in ion-beam sputtered amorphous dielectric, as well as substrate-transferred crystalline coatings, and their impact on systems at the forefront of precision metrology. These state-of-the-art coating techniques generate multilayers with ultralow optical losses, yielding mirrors with exceptional reflectivity. Refinements in their noise performance push the ultimate limits of sensitivity, resolution, and stability in demanding laser-based metrology applications. These technologies underpin the most advanced timekeeping and spatial measurement tools, enabling high-finesse reference cavities for the world’s most precise optical atomic clocks and low-noise reflective test masses for km-baseline gravitational-wave detectors. Emerging hybrid designs combining these techniques expand access to the mid-infrared spectral region, enabling the first ultralow-optical-loss coatings in the 3000–5000 nm wavelength range for enhanced spectroscopy and trace-gas detection. We highlight how these technologies redefine coating performance metrics and set new benchmarks in quantum science, fundamental physics, and precision optical sensing.

Cole, Garrett D. [University of Arizona, Tucson, A↗

Predicting partner fitness based on spatial structuring in a light-driven microbial community

Microbial communities have vital roles in systems essential to human health and agriculture, such as gut and soil microbiomes, and there is growing interest in engineering designer consortia for applications in biotechnology ( e . g ., personalized probiotics, bioproduction of high-value products, biosensing). The capacity to monitor and model metabolite exchange in dynamic microbial consortia can provide foundational information important to understand the community level behaviors that emerge, a requirement for building novel consortia. Where experimental approaches for monitoring metabolic exchange are technologically challenging, computational tools can enable greater access to the fate of both chemicals and microbes within a consortium. In this study, we developed an in-silico model of a synthetic microbial consortia of sucrose-secreting Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942 and Escherichia coli W. Our model was built on the NUFEB framework for Individual-based Modeling (IbM) and optimized for biological accuracy using experimental data. We showed that the relative level of sucrose secretion regulates not only the steady-state support for heterotrophic biomass, but also the temporal dynamics of consortia growth. In order to determine the importance of spatial organization within the consortium, we fit a regression model to spatial data and used it to accurately predict colony fitness. We found that some of the critical parameters for fitness prediction were inter-colony distance, initial biomass, induction level, and distance from the center of the simulation volume. We anticipate that the synergy between experimental and computational approaches will improve our ability to design consortia with novel function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Performance Year 1 Technical Report - OPEN COG Grid: Extendable Coherent Models-Datasets for Cognitive Power Grids

The OPEN COG Grid project is a collaborative effort between LLNL, NREL, and Texas A&M University (TAMU) to develop synthetic power system datasets that (i) contain all technical information that would be available in a real system, allowing to conduct studies ranging from dynamic simulation to long term planning studies; ii) are accessible to researchers from the broader data sciences community, as oppossed to power system experts only; and (iii) This report summarizes the work conducted during the first 15 months of execution of the project. These activities encompassed: 1. Conduct a survey of existing open data sets and open source power systems simulators, their supported use cases, and accessibility (Chapter 1). 2. Define a new extensible specification for power system data, covering all parameters necessary for most computational use cases (Chapter 2). 3. Collecting real technical system data to complete missing parameters in existing open source datasets (Chapter 3). 4. Develop models that capture the behavior of emergent actors in power grids, neglected by existing datasets; aggregated residential demand response (Chapter 4) and demand response of cryptocurrency miners (Chapter 5). 5. Collect detailed spatial information on distributed energy resources, particular, solar photovoltaic facilities (Chapter 6). The following chapters provide detailed descriptions of these tasks, the assumptions taken, and their findings. In conducting these tasks, the project team produced: two (accepted) conference papers; one journal paper under submission; one draft journal paper pending submission; released one repository with the developed power system data specification, with documentation and examples; and one extended dataset for the Texas power grid under review for release. The team hopes these contributions will enhance access to power system data and remove barriers to the development of new computational techniques for power systems, particularly, those inspired by cognitive sciences.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

What Can Plastic Flow Fields Tell Us About Heat Sources in Deformation Processing?

We characterize primary (shape-change) and secondary (friction) deformation, and associated temperature fields, in metal cutting and forming processes, using in situ imaging and simulation. The experimental configurations enable access to the deformation zones and die contact-interfaces, for measuring deformation, temperature, and frictional drag. Infra-red thermography reveals that the plastic strain-rate field is an excellent proxy for the deformation-induced heat sources. Both spatially confined and diffuse strain-rate fields occur, depending on the initial workpiece deformation state. When the strain rate is confined, as in pre-hardened material, the temperature modeling is much simplified, as the heat source is also now localized. However complex, microstructure-driven deformation modes, like sinuous flow in annealed metals, result in spatially diffuse strain-rate and body heat sources, more challenging to analyze. Furthermore, our unified measurements should be of value for accurately estimating the fraction of plastic dissipation that is converted into heat in large-strain deformation processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Phosphoserine Charge State Drives Ion Condensation and Spatial Polyamine Presentation in Multirepeat Silaffin

Diatom silaffins direct silica biomineralization through heavily post-translationally modified repeat domains, yet how these modifications reshape the multirepeat conformational ensemble remains unknown. We report all-atom MD simulations of a 195-residue construct spanning repeats R1–R7 of Sil1p from Cylindrotheca fusiformis, carrying the full complement of native PTMs: phosphoserine (pSer), long-chain polyamines (LCPA), dimethyllysine (MLY), and trimethylhydroxylysine phosphate (TPL). We simulated three variants (Native, P1/singly deprotonated phosphate, and P2/doubly deprotonated phosphate) at two NaCl concentrations in triplicate for 500 ns each. All systems disorder from the AlphaFold 3 starting structure. Phosphate charge state, not ionic strength, is the dominant control of ensemble compaction and ion organization. Doubly deprotonated phosphate organizes an extensive Na + condensation shell (∼100 ions, 20% of box Na + ) and a heterogeneous bridging network that integrates both pSer and TPL phosphate groups. The resulting ensemble is compact with LCPA side chains exhibiting above-median solvent accessibility in 84% of simulation frames in P2 at 300 mM. This is higher than any other condition we simulated and indicates that polyamine groups are preferentially surface-presented in the most compact, ion-organized state. A charge-neutralization control confirms that this compact state is a structured intermediate maintained by the bridging network, not a simple collapsed globule. Here, this repeat-scale spatial organization is not captured by single-repeat peptide studies. Understanding the dynamics, mechanism, and spatial organization of PTM-rich silaffin at the repeat scale is a step closer to hierarchical biomimetic materials beyond simple silica morphologies.

Amines↗

Visualization of Hemispherical Post‐Detonation Fireball Internal Structures

Hemispherical charges are initiated above a transparent plate in a half‐plane configuration, allowing optical access to the internal regions of the luminous fireball. High‐speed visualization enables characterization of the internal luminous structure, showing clearly the bright shell and dark core regions. Spectroscopic and pyrometric diagnostics are applied to these flows, generating quantitative information on the spatial distribution of temperature inside the fireball. Both cased and uncased charges can be examined using this methodology, and several different high explosives are tested. This approach can be useful in validation of detailed explosive fireball models. Initial comparisons with such models are presented.

detonation↗

Runaway electron beam dynamics at low plasma density in DIII-D: energy distribution, current profile, and internal instability

Parameters of the post-disruption runaway electron (RE) beam in the collisionless background plasma achieved after deuterium injection are investigated in DIII-D. The spatially resolved RE energy distribution function is measured for the first time during the RE plateau stage by inverting hard X-ray bremsstrahlung spectra. It has maximum energy up to 20 MeV and a non-monotonous feature at 5{6 MeV observed only in the core of the beam supporting the possibility of kinetic instabilities. The RE current profile is reconstructed for the first time using the spatially resolved RE energy distribution. It is found to be more peaked than the pre-disruption plasma current, with higher internal inductance, suggesting preferential formation of REs in the core plasma or potentially a radially inward motion of the REs. The accessed relatively low-current (180 kA) RE beam is found stable, likely due to its elevated q profile. From this base stable equilibrium, instability is accessed by ramping the solenoid current. Under a large applied accelerating loop voltage an internal kink mode is observed. The kink mode leads to sawtooth-like relaxation of the RE current profile, but drives no RE loss. Under conditions of a large decelerating voltage, chirping Alfvénic instabilities driven by REs during the RE plateau stage are observed for the first time. The low-frequency (0.1{7 MHz) Alfvénic instabilities, supposedly compressional Alfvén eigenmodes, are found to be correlated with a RE loss signal. Finally, this provides novel plasma conditions to study these instabilities and investigate opportunities to utilize them for RE control. Bifurcated electron cyclotron emission (ECE) spectrum is measured during the collisionless RE plateau, with a break point at ≈100 GHz suggesting resonant absorption of the ECE at low frequencies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The IEA Wind Task 49 Reference Floating Wind Array Design Basis

International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme (IEA Wind) Task 49 on Integrated Design of Floating Wind Arrays is an international collaboration aiming to advance the development of large-scale floating wind farms by providing open-access resources to the research and development and planning communities. The work of Task 49 focuses on array-level challenges related to the colocation of many floating wind turbines; their layouts, mooring systems, and cabling systems; failure risks; logistical considerations; marine spatial planning needs; and future research needs and innovation directions. This report provides a general design basis for the development of reference floating wind farm designs. These reference array designs will extend the scope of existing reference floating wind turbine designs to facilitate research on array-level floating wind technology challenges and innovations. The design basis promotes coordination and consistency in developing the reference array designs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Development of a 95-Year Solar Dataset for Resource Adequacy Studies

Long-term high-resolution solar data provides enhanced understanding of variability of solar generation and enhances our ability to develop strategies for a resilient and reliable electric grid under high deployment of solar energy. Therefore, it is important to develop long-term synthetic datasets that can provide multiple occurrences of various severe weather scenarios that are expected to test the limits of resource adequacy under scenarios contain various energy generation sources. Examples of such scenarios could be long periods of high temperatures when demand for electricity is high or periods where high winds could lead to a shut-down of transmission lines for long periods of time to ensure fire safety. NREL has developed the first version of such a dataset covering a 95-year period covering 2006-2100 at a 4km hourly resolution. This dataset contains all variables necessary to calculate solar generation. During development of this dataset, we focused on creating unbiased, high-resolution solar irradiance through statistical downscaling methods, using Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) as input. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) containing over 25 years of observations was used to calibrate the statistical downscaling models. This presentation will outline the primary steps in developing this dataset, including (1) regridding RCM data to a common grid at 20-km resolution, (2) correcting RCM biases with NSRDB, (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar and ancillary data. Additionally, we will present an evaluation of the downscaled data against the NSRDB across various zones in the CONUS. Lastly, we will present a user guide for accessing the datasets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

HarDWR - Raw Water Rights Records

For a detailed description of the database of which this record is only one part, please see the HarDWR meta-record. In order to hold a water right in the western United States, an entity, (e.g., an individual, corporation, municipality, sovereign government, or non-profit) must register a physical document with the state's water regulatory agency. State water agencies each maintain their own database containing all registered water right documents within the state, along with relevant metadata such as the point of diversion and place of use of the water. All western U.S. states have digitized their individual water rights databases, along with the geospatial data describing the spatial units where water rights are managed. Each state maintains and provides their own water rights data in accordance with individual state regulations and standards. We collected water rights databases from 11 western United States states either by downloading them from publicly accessible web portals, or by contacting state water management representatives; detailed descriptions of where and when the data was collected is provided in the README.txt, as well as Lisk et al.(in review). This collection of data are those raw water rights. Each state formats their data differently, meaning that file types, field availability, and names vary from state to state. Note, the data provided here reflects the state of the water rights databases at the time we collected the data; updates have likely occurred in many states. Some pieces of information are common among all states. These are: priority date, volume or flow of water allowed by the right, stated water use of the right, and some means of identifying the geography and source of the water pertaining to the right - typically the coordinates of the Point of Diversion (PoD) of a waterbody or well. Arizona regulates water in a different way than the other 10 states. Outside of some relatively small critical agricultural areas called Active Management Areas (AMAs), Arizona does not maintain any water rights. However, the state does require registration of surface and groundwater pumping devices, which includes disclosing the mechanical specifics of the devices. We used these records as a proxy for water rights. Each state, and their respective water right authorities, have made their water right records available for non-commercial reference uses. In addition, the states make no guarantees as to the completeness, accuracy, or timeliness of their respective databases, let alone the modifications which we, the authors of this paper, have made to the collected records. None of the states should be held liable for using this data outside of its intended use. In addition, the following states have requested specifically worded disclaimers to be included with their data. Colorado: "The data made available here has been modified for use from its original source, which is the State of Colorado. THE STATE OF COLORADO MAKES NO REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTY AS TO THE COMPLETENESS, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, OR CONTENT OF ANY DATA MADE AVAILABLE THROUGH THIS SITE. THE STATE OF COLORADO EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING ANY IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. The data is subject to change as modifications and updates are complete. It is understood that the information contained in the Web feed is being used at one's own risk." Montana: "The Montana State Library provides this product/service for informational purposes only. The Library did not produce it for, nor is it suitable for legal, engineering, or surveying purposes. Consumers of this information should review or consult the primary data and information sources to ascertain the viability of the information for their purposes. The Library provides these data in good faith but does not represent or warrant its accuracy, adequacy, or completeness. In no event shall the Library be liable for any incorrect results or analysis; any direct, indirect, special, or consequential damages to any party; or any lost profits arising out of or in connection with the use or the inability to use the data or the services provided. The Library makes these data and services available as a convenience to the public, and for no other purpose. The Library reserves the right to change or revise published data and/or services at any time." Oregon: "This product is for informational purposes and may not have been prepared for, or be suitable for legal, engineering, or surveying purposes. Users of this information should review or consult the primary data and information sources to ascertain the usability of the information." The available data is provided as a series of compressed files, which each containing the full data collected from each state. Some of the files have been renamed, to more easily know which state the data belongs to. The file renaming was also required as some files from different states had the same name. In other cases, the data for a state has been placed in a folder indicating which state it belongs to - as the state organized its data by selected subregions. Below is a brief description of the format of the collected data from each state. ArizonaRights_StatementOfClaimants: A folder containing a database of interconnected CSV files. The soc_erd.pdf file contains a visual flowchart of how the various files are connected, beginning with SOC_MAIN.csv in the center of the page. ArizonaRights_SurfaceWaterRightsData: A folder containing a database of a single Shapefile and 10 associated CSVs. SurfaceWater.pdf contains a visual flowchart of how the various files are connected, beginning with ADWR_SW_APPL_REGRY.csv. ArizonaRights_Well55Registry: A folder containing a database of a single Shapefile and 59 associated CSVs. Wells55.pdf contains a visual flowchart of how the various files are connected, beginning with WellRegistry.shp. CaliforniaRights_eWRIMS_directDatabase: A folder containing a collection of four "series" Microsoft Excel files, as either XLS or XLSX. The four "series": byCounty, byEntity (what type of legal entity holds the right), byUse (stated water use), and byWatershed, are various methods by which the California water rights are organized within the state's database. However, it was observed that by only collecting a single series, not all water rights were being provided. So, essentially, the majority of records within each "series" are copies of each other, with each "series" containing some unique records. ColoradoRights_NetAmounts: A folder containing 78 CSV files, with one file per Colorado Water District. IdahoRights_PointOfDiversion: A Shapefile containing the Points of Diversion for the entire state of Idaho. IdahoRights_PlaceOfUse: A Shapefile containing the Place of Use polygons for the entire state of Idaho. MontanaRights_WaterRights: A Geodatabase file containing the Points of Diversion and Places of Use for the entire state of Montana. The name of the Points of Diversion Feature Layer within the Geodatabase is "WRDIV", and the name of the Places of Use Feature Layer is "WRPOU". NevadaRights_POD_Sites: A Shapefile containing the Points of Diversion for the entire state of Nevada. NewMexicoRights_Points_of_Diversion: A Shapefile containing the Points of Diversion for the entire state of New Mexico. OregonRights_state_shp: A folder containing 36 Shapefiles and are split between "pod" (Point of Diversion) and "pou" (Place of Use) for each water management basin within Oregon. In other words, each basin has one "pod" file and one "pou" file. The "pod" files are point shapes, and the "pou" files are polygons. UtahRights_Points_of_Diversion: A Shapefile containing the Points of Diversion for the entire state of Utah. WashingtonRights_WaterDiversions_ECY_NHD: A Geodatabase file containing both the Points of Diversion for the entire state of Washington. The name of the Feature Layer within the Geodatabase is "WaterDiversions_ECY_NHD". WyomingRights: A folder containing four subdirectories, one for each Wyoming Water Division. Each Division directory includes a varying number of subdirectories for each Wyoming Water District. Each District folder contains two copies of the Point of Diversion records for that area, with one copying being in CSV and one copy in Microsoft Excel XLS format.

Lisk, Matthew↗

Micro- and nano-scale techniques to explore bacteria and fungi interactions with silicate minerals

Biogeochemical interfaces such as bacteria-mineral, fungi-mineral, and water-mineral are hot spots for important processes and reactions in all environments. Studying these interfaces are useful over a range of spatial and temporal scales in order to understand elemental cycles, soil formation, restoration, and bioremediation. Advancement of micro- and nano-scale techniques lead to new discoveries about reactions and interactions at the heterogeneous interface of bacteria, fungi, and minerals. The current state-of-art of analytical techniques allows to study solid, liquid, and gas phases and their interactions with biological components and often permits simultaneous study of chemical and physical properties in a site-specific manner. Improved techniques not only increased spatial and temporal resolution with site specificity but also decreased sample preparation, artifact generation, sample size requirements and analytical time. There are limitations and challenges that still need to be overcome while studying the very heterogeneous microbe-mineral interface, but improved accessibility to beam time at the synchrotron facilities and instrument time at the user laboratories offer some solutions. This review chapter focuses on a subset of the available micro- and nano-scale techniques: electron and atomic force microscopy, and X-ray based spectroscopy of traditional and synchrotron-based applications.

Slicate minerals, microscopy, microbes↗

Heterogeneous Distribution of Erucic Acid in Brassica napus Seeds

Brassica napus (B. napus) is the world's most widely grown temperate oilseed crop. Although breeding for human consumption has led to removal of erucic acid from refined canola oils, there is renewed interest in the industrial uses of erucic acid derived from B. napus, and there is a rich germplasm available for use. Here, low- and high-erucic acid accessions of B. napus seeds were examined for the distribution of erucic acid-containing lipids and the gene transcripts encoding the enzymes involved in pathways for its incorporation into triacylglycerols (TAGs) across the major tissues of the seeds. In general, the results indicate that a heterogeneous distribution of erucic acid across B. napus seed tissues was contributed by two isoforms (out of six) of FATTY ACYL COA ELONGASE (FAE1) and a combination of phospholipid:diacylglycerol acyltransferase (PDAT)- and diacylglycerol acyltransferase (DGAT)-mediated incorporation of erucic acid into TAGs in cotyledonary tissues. An absence of the expression of these two FAE1 isoforms accounted for the absence of erucic acid in the TAGs of the lowerucic accession.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The European wood pellets for heating market - Price developments, trade and market efficiency

Competitive international markets imply adjustments towards competitive spatial equilibrium in which excess from one market is transferred to another and prices are equilibrated except for remaining differences that can be assigned to transfer costs. The European market for wood pellets used in small-scale heating systems has been expanding significantly over the past decade. Small scale pellet heating is arguably a mature technology, but whether the market is mature is another question. In this paper we analyse recent data on trade flows and price developments between Italy, Austria, Germany and France to understand the developments of wood pellet market efficiency and to draw conclusions about market function. The objective of this study is to establish a framework to test the European residential wood pellet market for competitive spatial equilibrium using modern trade theory. We find mainly inefficiently integrated markets with remaining positive marginal profits and detectable arbitrageurs’ activity. Based on a thorough discussion of these findings and the underlying data we outline possible methodology advancements and list policy recommendations to secure access and affordability of this renewable heating commodity in the long run.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Substrate Partitioning into Protein Macromolecular Frameworks for Enhanced Catalytic Turnover

Spatial partitioning of chemical processes is an important attribute of many biological systems, the effect of which is reflected in the high efficiency of enzymes found within otherwise chaotic cellular environments. Barriers, often provided through the formation of compartments or phase segregation, gate the access of macromolecules and small molecules within the cell and provide an added level of metabolic control. Taking inspiration from nature, we have designed virus-like particles (VLPs) as nanoreactor compartments that sequester enzyme catalysts and have used these as building blocks to construct 3D protein macromolecular framework (PMF) materials, which are structurally characterized using small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS). Additionally, the highly charged PMFs form a separate phase in suspension, and by tuning the ionic strength, we show positively charged molecules preferentially partition into the PMF, while negatively charged molecules are excluded. This molecular partitioning was exploited to tune the catalytic activity of enzymes enclosed within the individual particles in the PMF, the results of which showed that positively charged substrates had turnover rates that were 8500× faster than their negatively charged counterparts. Moreover, the catalytic PMF led to cooperative behavior resulting in charge dependent trends opposite to those observed with individual P22 nanoreactor particles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Limited increases in Arctic offshore oil and gas production with climate change and the implications for energy markets

Climate change impacts on sea ice thickness is opening access to offshore Arctic resources. The degree to which these resources are exploited will depend on sea-ice conditions, technology costs, international energy markets, and the regulatory environment. We use an integrated human-Earth system model, GCAM, to explore the effects of spatial–temporal patterns of sea-ice loss under climate change on future Arctic offshore oil and gas extraction, considering interactions with global energy markets and emission reduction scenarios. We find that under SSP5, a “fossil-fueled development” scenario, the effects of sea-ice loss are larger for Arctic offshore oil production than gas. Under SSP5, future extraction of Arctic offshore oil and gas through 2100 adds roughly 0.8–2.6 EJ/year to oil and gas markets but does not have large impacts on global oil and gas markets. Surprisingly, a low-carbon scenario results in greater Arctic offshore oil production to offset the more emissions-intensive unconventional oil production.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗