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At least 235 records · Page 13

A statistical data analysis and plotting program for cloud microphysics experiments

The analysis software developed for atmospheric cloud microphysics experiments conducted in the laboratory as well as aboard a KC-135 aircraft is described. A group of four programs was developed and implemented on a Hewlett Packard 1000 series F minicomputer running under HP's RTE-IVB operating system. The programs control and read data from a MEMODYNE Model 3765-8BV cassette recorder, format the data on the Hewlett Packard disk subsystem, and generate statistical data (mean, variance, standard deviation) and voltage and engineering unit plots on a user selected plotting device. The programs are written in HP FORTRAN IV and HP ASSEMBLY Language with the graphics software using the HP 1000 Graphics. The supported plotting devices are the HP 2647A graphics terminal, the HP 9872B four color pen plotter, and the HP 2608A matrix line printer.

Jordan, A. J.↗

Tidal dissipation in the moon

Euler's equations of motion, modified to include elasticity and solid friction, were used to study the rotation of the moon. Two heuristic models for the anelasticity were considered: Q independent of frequency and Q inversely proportional to the frequency and Q inversely proportional to the frequency of the strain oscillation. Parameters in each model were estimated by weighted least squares from 9 years of lunar laser range observations. The root mean square of the postfit range residuals was 19 cm in each case. For a strain period of 1 month, the estimates of Q obtained with the two models were similar and surprisingly low: 23 + or - 6. The range of uncertaintly, + or - 6, represents our estimate of the true standard deviation of the estimate of Q, as affected by systematic errors; it is 3 times larger than the formal, statistical, standard error.

Cappallo, R. J.↗

Human performance in the modern cockpit

This panel was organized by the Aerospace Human Factors Committee to illustrate behavioral research on the perceptual, cognitive, and group processes that determine crew effectiveness in modern cockpits. Crew reactions to the introduction of highly automated systems in the cockpit will be reported on. Automation can improve operational capabilities and efficiency and can reduce some types of human error, but may also introduce entirely new opportunities for error. The problem solving and decision making strategies used by crews led by captains with various personality profiles will be discussed. Also presented will be computational approaches to modeling the cognitive demands of cockpit operations and the cognitive capabilities and limitations of crew members. Factors contributing to aircrew deviations from standard operating procedures and misuse of checklist, often leading to violations, incidents, or accidents will be examined. The mechanisms of visual perception pilots use in aircraft control and the implications of these mechanisms for effective design of visual displays will be discussed.

Dismukes, R. K.↗

A Comparison of FIFE Observation with GEOS Assimilated Data Including a Heterogeneous LSM

Several recent studies have shown that much can be learned by comparing grid-point data from a data assimilation system with in-situ observations from field experiments. While the surface heterogeneity is acknowledged in these studies, they lack quantitative representations of the influence of heterogeneity on the near-surface meteorology and surface hydrologic and energy balance. Here, we use the Betts and Ball FIFE site-averaged data. Standard deviations of the site-average will provide an estimate of the FIFE site heterogeneity. Recently, the Mosaic Land-Surface Model (LSM) has been incorporated into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The Mosaic LSM computes the surface energy and hydrologic balance for nine distinct surface types at each grid-point. Each surface type is proportionally weighted to determine the mean grid point properties. Hence, we can compare modeled and observed grid-point variability in addition to the mean properties. Also, assimilated data sets created with and without the LSM are compared. The results indicate the importance of including quantitative estimates of heterogeneity in the analysis of the land surface hydrology and energy balances in assimilation systems.

Bosilovich, M.↗

A Celestial Reference Frame Based on Kalman Filtering

In this study, we investigate a novel approach to the determination of celestial reference frames (CRF). Instead of a constant model for radio sources positions, we adopt a time series representation, which allows temporal variations of radio source coordinates to be taken into account. In particular, the added flexibility is beneficial for radio sources with extended structure. We compute our time series-based CRF solutions by Kalman filtering and smoothing radio source positions, which are initially obtained from single-session VLBI analysis. The temporal resolution of the estimated CRF coordinates is identical to that of the input data, i.e. usually 1-4 days. The magnitude of the coordinate variations is controlled by the amount of process noise applied in the filter, which is in turn derived from analyzing the Allan standard deviation of the corresponding radio source coordinate time series. Measures have been developed to reduce the impact of observation errors and datum effects on the noise model.

Soja, B.↗

Evaluation of single-footprint AIRS CH4 Profile Retrieval Uncertainties Using Aircraft Profile Measurements

We evaluate the uncertainties of methane optimal estimation retrievals from single footprint thermal infrared observations from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). These retrievals are primarily sensitive to atmospheric methane in the mid-troposphere through the lower stratosphere (~2 to ~17 km). We compare to in situ observations made from aircraft during the Hiaper Pole to Pole Observations (HIPPO), the NASA Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) campaigns, and from the NOAA ESRL aircraft network, between the surface and 5-13 km, across a range of years, latitudes between 60 S to 80 N, and over land and ocean. After a global, pressure dependent bias correction, we find that the land and ocean have similar biases and that the reported observation error (combined measurement and interference errors) of ~27 ppb is consistent with the standard deviation between aircraft and individual AIRS observations. A single measurement has measurement (noise related) uncertainty of ~17 ppb, a ~20 ppb uncertainty from radiative interferences (e.g. from water, temperature, etc.), and ~ 30 ppb due to “smoothing error”, which is partially removed when making comparisons to in situ measurements or models in a way that account for this regularization. We estimate a 16 ppb validation error because the aircraft typically did not measure methane at altitudes where the AIRS measurements have some sensitivity, e.g. the stratosphere. Daily averaged AIRS measurements of at least 9 observations over spatio-temporal domains of < 1 degree and 1 hour have a standard deviation of ~17 ppb versus aircraft, likely because the observation errors from temperature and water vapor (for example) are only partly reduced through averaging. Seasonal averages can reduce this ~17 ppb uncertainty further to ~10 ppb, as determined through comparison with NOAA aircraft, likely because uncertainties related to radiative effects of temperature and water vapor can be reduced when averaged over a season.

Susan Kulawik↗

Comparison of observed and modeled longwave radiances

Calculated LW radiances based on NMC profiles of temperature and humidities for the month of July 1985 are obtained using standard procedures for performing radiative transfer calculations, and are within 3 percent (against a standard deviation of 4 percent) for global daytime land comparsions and within 1 percent (against a standard deviation of 1.5 percent) for a case study located over North America. The calculated values over the global data set show a slight trend with the surface temperature, and since there is no obvious trend with the column amount of water vapor, it is argued that the trend with temperature is evidence that absorption by other components (i.e., CO2O3 and other trace gases not included in these calculations) in the model could be improved.

Stone, Kenneth↗

Thermal Protection System Mass Estimating Relationships for Blunt-Body, Earth Entry Spacecraft

System analysis and design of any entry system must balance the level fidelity for each discipline against the project timeline. One way to inject high fidelity analysis earlier in the design effort is to develop surrogate models for the high-fidelity disciplines. Surrogate models for the Thermal Protection System (TPS) are formulated as Mass Estimating Relationships (MERs). The TPS MERs are presented that predict the amount of TPS necessary for safe Earth entry for blunt-body spacecraft using simple correlations that closely match estimates from NASA's high-fidelity ablation modeling tool, the Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal Analysis Program (FIAT). These MERs provide a first order estimate for rapid feasibility studies. There are 840 different trajectories considered in this study, and each TPS MER has a peak heating limit. MERs for the vehicle forebody include the ablators Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) and Carbon Phenolic atop Advanced Carbon-Carbon. For the aftbody, the materials are Silicone Impregnated Reusable Ceramic Ablator (SIRCA), Acusil II, SLA-561V, and LI-900. The MERs are accurate to within 14% (at one standard deviation) of FIAT prediction, and the most any MER under predicts FIAT TPS thickness is 18.7%. This work focuses on the development of these MERs, the resulting equations, model limitations, and model accuracy.

mass estimating relationship (MER)↗

Random Predictor Models for Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification: Part 2

This and a companion paper propose techniques for constructing parametric mathematical models describing key features of the distribution of an output variable given input-output data. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single output value at each value of the input, Random Predictors Models (RPMs) yield a random variable at each value of the input. Optimization-based strategies for calculating RPMs having a polynomial dependency on the input and a linear dependency on the parameters are proposed. These formulations yield RPMs having various levels of fidelity in which the mean, the variance, and the range of the model's parameter, thus of the output, are prescribed. As such they encompass all RPMs conforming to these prescriptions. The RPMs are optimal in the sense that they yield the tightest predictions for which all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations are less than a fixed number of standard deviations from the mean prediction. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization problem(s) used to calculate the RPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex problem), the model's reliability, which is the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted ranges, is bounded rigorously.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

Thermal Protection System Mass Estimating Relationships For Blunt-Body, Earth Entry Spacecraft

Mass estimating relationships (MERs) are developed to predict the amount of thermal protection system (TPS) necessary for safe Earth entry for blunt-body spacecraft using simple correlations that are non-ITAR and closely match estimates from NASA's highfidelity ablation modeling tool, the Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal Analysis Program (FIAT). These MERs provide a first order estimate for rapid feasibility studies. There are 840 different trajectories considered in this study, and each TPS MER has a peak heating limit. MERs for the vehicle forebody include the ablators Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) and Carbon Phenolic atop Advanced Carbon-Carbon. For the aftbody, the materials are Silicone Impregnated Reusable Ceramic Ablator (SIRCA), Acusil II, SLA- 561V, and LI-900. The MERs are accurate to within 14% (at one standard deviation) of FIAT prediction, and the most any MER can under predict FIAT TPS thickness is 18.7%. This work focuses on the development of these MERs, the resulting equations, model limitations, and model accuracy.

Spacecraft↗

Random Predictor Models for Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification: Part 1

This and a companion paper propose techniques for constructing parametric mathematical models describing key features of the distribution of an output variable given input-output data. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single output value at each value of the input, Random Predictors Models (RPMs) yield a random variable at each value of the input. Optimization-based strategies for calculating RPMs having a polynomial dependency on the input and a linear dependency on the parameters are proposed. These formulations yield RPMs having various levels of fidelity in which the mean and the variance of the model's parameters, thus of the predicted output, are prescribed. As such they encompass all RPMs conforming to these prescriptions. The RPMs are optimal in the sense that they yield the tightest predictions for which all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations are less than a fixed number of standard deviations from the mean prediction. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization problem(s) used to calculate the RPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex problem), the model's reliability, which is the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted ranges, can be bounded tightly and rigorously.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

Seven years of IUE observations of the BL Lacertae object PKS 2155-304

Over 50 IUE spectra of the brightest known BL Lac object at ultraviolet wavelengths, PKS 2155-304, were reanalyzed using Gaussian extraction techniques that maximize the signal-to-noise. The ultraviolet continuum of PKS 2155-304 is well fitted by a power law model Fv varies as V sup-alpha, with an average spectral index for the combined SWP-LWR-P fits of less than alpha greater than 0.89 + or - 0.11 (standard deviation). While the ultraviolet intensity of PKS 2155-304 varies by a factor of 2, the spectral index changes very little and is uncorrelated with intensity. Timescales for ultraviolet variability are as short as 10 days. In one case, a well-matched pair of IUE images was obtained nearly simultaneously with a very soft X-ray measurement; the combined spectra clearly show a steepening between the ultraviolet and soft X-ray bands. The relevance of these findings to jet models and accretion models is discussed.

Urry, C. M.↗

Investigation of the Vortical Flow Above an F/A-18 Using Doppler Global Velocimetry

The flow above an F/A-18 model, set to 25-degrees angle of attack, was measured using a Doppler global velocimeter, (DGV). The investigation indicated that the complex flow contained many similarities to the vortical flow above a simple delta wing set to a high-angle of attack, including flow standard deviations greater than 30-percent of free- stream. These standard deviation levels were also comparable to results found during a previous investigation of the vortical flow above a YF-17 using fringe-type laser velocimetry. The global measurement capability of the DGV provided the first evidence that the burst vortices above the model were structured. These structures were found to maintain their spatial coherence while the flow varied in an overall sense.

Meyers, James F.↗

Line-blanketed model stellar atmospheres applied to Sirius

The primary goal of this analysis is to determine whether the effects of atomic bound-bound transitions on stellar atmospheric structure can be represented well in models. The investigation is based on an approach which is called the method of artificial absorption edges. The method is described, developed, tested, and applied to the problem of fitting a model stellar atmosphere to Sirius. It is shown that the main features of the entire observed spectrum of Sirius can be reproduced to within the observational uncertainty by a blanketed flux-constant model with T sub eff = 9700 K and Log g = 4.26. The profile of H sub gamma is reproduced completely within the standard deviations of the measurements except near line center, where non-LTE effects are expected to be significant. The equivalent width of H sub gamma, the Paschen slope, the Balmer jump, and the absolute flux at 5550 A all agree with the observed values.

Fowler, J. W.↗

The MATHEMATICA economic analysis of the Space Shuttle System

Detailed economic analysis shows the Thrust Assisted Orbiter Space Shuttle System (TAOS) to be the most economic Space Shuttle configuration among the systems studied. The development of a TAOS Shuttle system is economically justified within a level of space activities between 300 and 360 Shuttle flights in the 1979-1990 period, or about 25 to 30 flights per year, well within the U.S. Space Program including NASA and DoD missions. If the NASA and DoD models are taken at face value (624 flights), the benefits of the Shuttle system are estimated to be $13.9 billion with a standard deviation of plus or minus $1.45 billion in 1970 dollars (at a 10% social rate of discount). If the expected program is modified to 514 flights (in the 1979-1990 period), the estimated benefits of the Shuttle system are $10.2 billion, with a standard deviation of $940 million (at a 10% social rate of discount).

Heiss, K. P.↗

Computational aspects of geometric correction data generation in the LANDSAT-D imagery processing

A method is presented for systematic and geodetic correction data calculation. It is based on presentation of image distortions as a sum of nominal distortions and linear effects caused by variation of the spacecraft position and attitude variables from their nominals. The method may be used for both MSS and TM image data and it is incorporated into the processing by means of mostly offline calculations. Modeling shows that the maximal of the method are of the order of 5m at the worst point in a frame; the standard deviations of the average errors less than .8m.

Levine, I.↗

Venusian highlands - Geoid to topography ratios and their implications

Geoid-to-topography ratios (GTRs) are estimated for 12 Venusian highland features to allow comparison with convection calculations and with terrestrial data of oceanic hot spots, swells, and plateaus. The geoid is estimated in the wavenumber domain from the isostatic formula, using the topography and the apparent depths isostatic compensation (ADC) for each region. In the space domain, the GTR is equal to the least squares slope of the linear fit of the geoid to the topograpy. The resulting GTR range is 7-31 m/km, which is much higher than terrestrial oceanic values (-1 to 5 m/km). The features fall into two distinct groups, one with a GTR range of 7-13 m/km, and one with a range of 19-25 m/km. A model for thermal thinning of a 100-km-thick lithosphere fits all values in the lower GTR group to within one standard deviation.

Smrekar, Suzanne E.↗

Deduction of emissions of source gases using an objective inversion algorithm and a chemical transport model

An inversion algorithm, constructed to deduce the emissions of a source gas required to produce a specified surface concentration, is applied to the observed surface concentrations of CFC 11, methylchloroform, and methane, using a two-dimensional chemical transport model. The information utilized for this deduction process is limited to the measured atmospheric concentration of the source gas, including the associated standard deviations of these measurements. In this way the amount of objective information available in these measurements is assessed. The algorithm is shown to be capable of producing a latitudinal emissions distribution as well as the error bounds on the deduced emission distribution. The 'ill posed' nature of this inverse problem is discussed as well as the implications this has on the spatial and temporal resolution at which emissions can be resolved. Finally, a methane emission distribution is deduced which has the expected seasonal variations and consistent with results from other, more subjective, deduction studies.

Brown, Margaret↗