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At least 235 records · Page 13

Geos 3 wave height measurements - An assessment during high sea state conditions in the North Atlantic

The sea state in the North Atlantic Ocean has been monitored in February, 1977 to obtain data for verification of Geos 3 radio altimeter wave form data. The altimeter sea state data were found to be in good agreement with in situ sea state measurements and with aircraft remote sensing measurements of wave height. The average difference between the supporting data and Geos 3 was 0.34 m, and the standard deviation 0.61 m. Contour maps of sea state constructed for large regions of the earth's oceans on the basis of Geos 3 altimeter measurements exhibited systematic differences from operationally available computerized maps. It is thought that the underestimation of significant wave height maxima in the operational maps and the underestimation of the speed of movement of oceanic cyclones may be due to basic errors in the output of atmospheric primitive-equation models. Because of the narrow swath width of the Geos-3 sensor, data from several satellite orbits must be combined to construct contour maps, leading to low values of significant wave heights.

Parsons, C. L.↗

Assessment of the sea surface temperature diurnal cycle in CNRM-CM6-1 based on its 1D coupled configuration

A single-column version of the CNRM-CM6-1 global climate model has been developed to ease development and validation of the boundary layer physics and air–sea coupling in a simplified environment. This framework is then used to assess the ability of the coupled model to represent the sea surface temperature (SST) diurnal cycle. To this aim, the atmospheric–ocean single-column model (AOSCM), called CNRM-CM6-1D, is implemented in a case study derived from the CINDY2011/DYNAMO campaign over the Indian Ocean, where large diurnal SST variabilities have been well documented. Comparing the AOSCM and its uncoupled components (atmospheric SCM and oceanic SCM, called OSCM) highlights the fact that the impact of coupling in the atmosphere results from both the possibility to take into account the diurnal variability of SST, which is not usually available in forcing products, and the change in mean state SST as simulated by the OSCM, with the ocean mean state not being heavily impacted by the coupling. This suggests that coupling feedbacks in the 3D model do not arise from the coupling of ocean and atmosphere vertical column physics but are more due to the large-scale dynamics resolved by the 3D model. Additionally, a sub-daily coupling frequency is needed to represent the SST diurnal variability, but the choice of the coupling time step between 15 min and 3 h does not impact the diurnal temperature range simulated much. The main drawback of a 3 h coupling is delaying the SST diurnal cycle by 5 h in asynchronous coupled models. Overall, the diurnal SST variability is reasonably well represented in CNRM-CM6-1 with a 1 h coupling time step and the upper-ocean model resolution of 1 m. This framework is shown to be a very valuable tool to develop and validate the boundary layer physics and the coupling interface. It highlights the interest to develop other atmosphere–ocean coupling case studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ocean tides

Progress in the understanding of ocean tides since the field was reviewed two years ago by Hendershott and Munk [1970] has confirmed their characterization of the field as rapidly developing. The First Geodesy/ Solid‐Earth and Ocean Physics (GEOP) Research Conference on Solid‐ Earth and Ocean Tides provided an opportunity to gather subsequent results and to view them in the context of long‐term trends in the development of the field. This review, therefore, largely picks up where that of Hendershott and Munk [1970] left off; the two reviews together are intended to provide a modern view of our state of understanding of ocean tides. Vital progress in instrumentation, in data analysis, and in the closely related field of solid‐earth tides is outlined in the accompanying summary of conference discussions beginning on page 96 of this issue.

M. C. Hendershott↗

Contents of the NASA ocean data system archive, version 11-90

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ocean Data System (NODS) archive at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) includes satellite data sets for the ocean sciences and global-change research to facilitate multidisciplinary use of satellite ocean data. Parameters include sea-surface height, surface-wind vector, sea-surface temperature, atmospheric liquid water, and surface pigment concentration. NODS will become the Data Archive and Distribution Service of the JPL Distributed Active Archive Center for the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) and will be the United States distribution site for Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/POSEIDON data and metadata.

Smith, Elizabeth A.↗

Data-Driven Exploration of Climate Attractor Manifolds For Long-Term Predictability

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal Area 3. We seek to gain insight into decadal-scale climate predictability by applying novel manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques to the complex data produced by Earth System models (ESMs) such as E3SM. The associated portfolio of research activities leverages DOE’s asset mix of HPC platforms, climate expertise, climate simulation codes, and AI expertise. Science Challenge: Climate and climate models are dynamical systems exhibiting properties that are interpretable through chaos theory. The theory contains an important concept that is relevant to multi-decade-scale climate prediction: a chaotic attractor. While the space containing all the possible states of the Earth’s atmosphere and ocean, the possible weather, is large, the realized states tend to stay near the smaller-dimensioned attractor. This behavior is responsible for the “order behind the irregularity” [1] of climate phenomena. Climate change can be thought of as a change in the properties of the attractor, and predicting the climate over years to decades is equivalent to predicting how those properties will change. To date, the attractor has been a useful conceptual tool, but has not been amenable to direct characterization. A new development is the advent of efficient high-dimensional manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques, which permit a data-driven characterization of the ESM attractor and its probability distribution over weather states. Such a characterization would result in a natural dimensional reduction — a “non-linear Principal Components Analysis (PCA) adapted to climate simulation data” — leading to important advances in scenario-based long-term climate prediction, long-term prediction of water cycle extremes, ESM verification, inter-model comparison, and process model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observations and Modeling of the Transient General Circulation of the North Pacific Basin

Because of recent progress in satellite altimetry and numerical modeling and the accumulation and archiving of long records of hydrographic and meteorological variables, it is becoming feasible to describe and understand the transient general circulation of the ocean (i.e., variations with spatial scales larger than a few hundred kilometers and time scales of seasonal and longer-beyond the mesoscale). We have carried out various studies in investigation of the transient general circulation of the Pacific Ocean from a coordinated analysis of satellite altimeter data, historical hydrographic gauge data, scatterometer wind observations, reanalyzed operational wind fields, and a variety of ocean circulation models. Broadly stated, our goal was to achieve a phenomenological catalogue of different possible types of large-scale, low-frequency variability, as a context for understanding the observational record. The approach is to identify the simplest possible model from which particular observed phenomena can be isolated and understood dynamically and then to determine how well these dynamical processes are represented in more complex Oceanic General Circulation Models (OGCMs). Research results have been obtained on Rossby wave propagation and transformation, oceanic intrinsic low-frequency variability, effects of surface gravity waves, pacific data analyses, OGCM formulation and developments, and OGCM simulations of forced variability.

McWilliams, James C.↗

Skillful Multi‐Month Predictions of Ecosystem Stressors in the Surface and Subsurface Ocean

Abstract Anthropogenic carbon emissions and associated climate change are driving rapid warming, acidification, and deoxygenation in the ocean, which increasingly stress marine ecosystems. On top of long‐term trends, short term variability of marine stressors can have major implications for marine ecosystems and their management. As such, there is a growing need for predictions of marine ecosystem stressors on monthly, seasonal, and multi‐month timescales. Previous studies have demonstrated the ability to make reliable predictions of the surface ocean physical and biogeochemical state months to years in advance, but few studies have investigated forecast skill of multiple stressors simultaneously or assessed the forecast skill below the surface. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Seasonal to Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) along with novel observation‐based biogeochemical and physical products to quantify the predictive skill of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), dissolved oxygen, and temperature in the surface and subsurface ocean. CESM SMYLE demonstrates high physical and biogeochemical predictive skill multiple months in advance in key oceanic regions and frequently outperforms persistence forecasts. We find up to 10 months of skillful forecasts, with particularly high skill in the Northeast Pacific (Gulf of Alaska and California Current Large Marine Ecosystems) for temperature, surface DIC, and subsurface oxygen. Our findings suggest that dynamical marine ecosystem prediction could support actionable advice for decision making.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

From microbial diversity to functional potential using dimensionality reduction

The high dimensionality of microbial diversity data from ‘omics observations can be reduced using Machine Learning, with many recent studies showcasing ML utility for exploratory ecological feature finding and process prediction. Here, we compare the Self Organizing Map (SOM) dimensionality reduction method to the well-documented sample-based Principal Coordinate Analysis (PCoA) and taxa-based Weighted Gene Correlation Network Analysis (WGCNA) using near daily 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing data from the 2019 to 2020 MOSAiC International Arctic Drift Expedition. We then map k-means clustering outputs from each method to available metagenomes, extracting functionally distinct seasonal microbial ecotypes in the surface Arctic Ocean. Our results indicate the SOM method better represented expected seasonal transitions and identified a greater number of metabolically distinct functional groups than the more traditional PCoA ordination. Ultimately, we identified four community ecotypes with distinct taxonomic and functional cut-offs driven by seasonality, water mass, and substrate turnover, highlighting the importance of succession in functional diversity for the central Arctic Ocean. These results reinforce ML dimensionality reduction as a meaningful translator in the mining of historical amplicon datasets to address modern mechanistic questions and potentially provide ’omics informed ecotype diversity to leverage in mechanistic biogeochemical models.

Arctic Ocean↗

Laboratory and field assessment of mid-infrared absorption (MIRA) instrument performance for methane and ethane dry mole fractions

Concurrent measurements of methane (CH 4 ) and ethane (C 2 H 6 ) can be used to identify and separate methane sources, as ethane is present in thermogenic sources (e.g., oil and natural gas) but not in biogenic sources (e.g., agriculture). In this study, we evaluated the performance of multiple Aeris MIRA Ultra instruments (Versions 1 and 2) through controlled laboratory tests and tower-based deployments under field conditions. The systems were modified with an external pump, flow control, a Nafion dryer, and a custom-built auxiliary box to automate the system and transmit near real-time data. We determined the best calibration approach for our application, given practical limitations, to be a full calibration cycle (with ambient and high calibration cylinders) about once per day and an ambient calibration cylinder sampled hourly. Measurement uncertainty was assessed, including the uncertainty due to instrument noise as a function of calibration frequency, uncertainty in the water vapor correction, and cylinder assignment uncertainty. Instrument noise was the dominant source of uncertainty for C 2 H 6 , while the water vapor correction dominated the CH 4 uncertainty. For Version 2 systems with hourly calibrations and a Nafion dryer with counterflow, the mean total uncertainty, including both systematic errors and noise, of hourly averages was 0.8–3.0 ppb CH 4 and 0.35–0.37 ppb C 2 H 6 . Laboratory intercomparisons showed network compatibility within 1.2 ppb CH 4 and 0.23 ppb C 2 H6, and a collocated deployment with a NOAA Picarro system agreed within 1.8 ppb CH 4 . Instrument noise varied substantially amongst the instruments, with errors reaching up to 11 ppb CH 4 and 2 ppb C 2 H 6 for hourly means, with similar variability indicated in a 50 h cylinder test. With appropriate engineering and calibration, the Aeris MIRA Ultra has the potential to distinguish regional methane emission sources in many field settings.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

The First Habitable-zone Earth-sized Planet from TESS. III. Climate States and Characterization Prospects for TOI-700 d

We present self-consistent three-dimensional climate simulations of possible habitable states for the newly discovered habitable-zone Earth-sized planet TOI-700 d. We explore a variety of atmospheric compositions, pressures, and rotation states for both ocean-covered and completely desiccated planets in order to assess the planet’s potential for habitability. For all 20 of our simulated cases, we use our climate model outputs to synthesize transmission spectra, combined-light spectra, and integrated broadband phase curves. These climatologically informed observables will help the community assess the technological capabilities necessary for future characterization of this planet—as well as similar transiting planets discovered in the future—and will provide a guide for distinguishing possible climate states if one day we do obtain sensitive spectral observations of a habitable planet around an M star. We find that TOI-700 d is a strong candidate for a habitable world and can potentially maintain temperate surface conditions under a wide variety of atmospheric compositions. Unfortunately, the spectral feature depths from the resulting transmission spectra and the peak flux and variations from our synthesized phase curves for TOI-700 d do not exceed 10 ppm. This will likely prohibit the James Webb Space Telescope from characterizing its atmosphere; however, this motivates the community to invest in future instrumentation that perhaps can one day reveal the true nature of TOI-700 d and to continue to search for similar planets around less distant stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The First Habitable-zone Earth-sized Planet from TESS. III. Climate States and Characterization Prospects for TOI-700 d

We present self-consistent three-dimensional climate simulations of possible habitable states for the newly discovered habitable-zone Earth-sized planet TOI-700 d. We explore a variety of atmospheric compositions, pressures, and rotation states for both ocean-covered and completely desiccated planets in order to assess the planet's potential for habitability. For all 20 of our simulated cases, we use our climate model outputs to synthesize transmission spectra, combined-light spectra, and integrated broadband phase curves. These climatologically informed observables will help the community assess the technological capabilities necessary for future characterization of this planet—as well as similar transiting planets discovered in the future—and will provide a guide for distinguishing possible climate states if one day we do obtain sensitive spectral observations of a habitable planet around an M star. We find that TOI-700 d is a strong candidate for a habitable world and can potentially maintain temperate surface conditions under a wide variety of atmospheric compositions. Unfortunately, the spectral feature depths from the resulting transmission spectra and the peak flux and variations from our synthesized phase curves for TOI-700 d do not exceed 10 ppm. This will likely prohibit the James Webb Space Telescope from characterizing its atmosphere; however, this motivates the community to invest in future instrumentation that perhaps can one day reveal the true nature of TOI-700 d and to continue to search for similar planets around less distant stars.

Gabrielle Suissa↗

Prediction and Predictability of the Madden Julian Oscillation in the NASA GEOS-5 Seasonal-to-Subseasonal System

In this study, we examine the prediction skill and predictability of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) in a recent version of the NASA GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean coupled model run at at 1/2 degree horizontal resolution. The results are based on a suite of hindcasts produced as part of the NOAA SubX project, consisting of seven ensemble members initialized every 5 days for the period 1999-2015. The atmospheric initial conditions were taken from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and the ocean and the sea ice were taken from a GMAO ocean analysis. The land states were initialized from the MERRA-2 land output, which is based on observation-corrected precipitation fields. We investigated the MJO prediction skill in terms of the bivariate correlation coefficient for the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices. The correlation coefficient stays at or above 0.5 out to forecast lead times of 26-36 days, with a pronounced increase in skill for forecasts initialized from phase 3, when the MJO convective anomaly is located in the central tropical Indian Ocean. A corresponding estimate of the upper limit of the predictability is calculated by considering a single ensemble member as the truth and verifying the ensemble mean of the remaining members against that. The predictability estimates fall between 35-37 days (taken as forecast lead when the correlation reaches 0.5) and are rather insensitive to the initial MJO phase. The model shows slightly higher skill when the initial conditions contain strong MJO events compared to weak events, although the difference in skill is evident only from lead 1 to 20. Similar to other models, the RMM-index-based skill arises mostly from the circulation components of the index. The skill of the convective component of the index drops to 0.5 by day 20 as opposed to day 30 for circulation fields. The propagation of the MJO anomalies over the Maritime Continent does not appear problematic in the GEOS-5 hindcasts implying that the Maritime Continent predictability barrier may not be a major concern in this model. Finally, the MJO prediction skill in this version of GEOS-5 is superior to that of the current seasonal prediction system at the GMAO; this could be partly attributed to a slightly better representation of the MJO in the free running version of this model and partly to the improved atmospheric initialization from MERRA-2.

Achuthavarier, Deepthi↗

Advancing ocean monitoring and knowledge for societal benefit: the urgency to expand Argo to OneArgo by 2030

The ocean plays an essential role in regulating Earth’s climate, influencing weather conditions, providing sustenance for large populations, moderating anthropogenic climate change, encompassing massive biodiversity, and sustaining the global economy. Human activities are changing the oceans, stressing ocean health, threatening the critical services the ocean provides to society, with significant consequences for human well-being and safety, and economic prosperity. Effective and sustainable monitoring of the physical, biogeochemical state and ecosystem structure of the ocean, to enable climate adaptation, carbon management and sustainable marine resource management is urgently needed. The Argo program, a cornerstone of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), has revolutionized ocean observation by providing real-time, freely accessible global temperature and salinity data of the upper 2,000m of the ocean (Core Argo) using cost-effective simple robotics. For the past 25 years, Argo data have underpinned many ocean, climate and weather forecasting services, playing a fundamental role in safeguarding goods and lives. Argo data have enabled clearer assessments of ocean warming, sea level change and underlying driving processes, as well as scientific breakthroughs while supporting public awareness and education. Building on Argo’s success, OneArgo aims to greatly expand Argo’s capabilities by 2030, expanding to full-ocean depth, collecting biogeochemical parameters, and observing the rapidly changing polar regions. Providing a synergistic subsurface and global extension to several key space-based Earth Observation missions and GOOS components, OneArgo will enable biogeochemical and ecosystem forecasting and new long-term climate predictions for which the deep ocean is a key component. Driving forward a revolution in our understanding of marine ecosystems and the poorly-measured polar and deep oceans, OneArgo will be instrumental to assess sea level change, ocean carbon fluxes, acidification and deoxygenation. Emerging OneArgo applications include new views of ocean mixing, ocean bathymetry and sediment transport, and ecosystem resilience assessment. Implementing OneArgo requires about $100 million annually, a significant increase compared to present Argo funding. OneArgo is a strategic and cost-effective investment which will provide decision-makers, in both government and industry, with the critical knowledge needed to navigate the present and future environmental challenges, and safeguard both the ocean and human wellbeing for generations to come.

ARGO↗

NASA/GEWEX SRB Surface Radiation Budget Fluxes Through the Prism of Weather States

The NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Version 4 (SRB Rel4) product is now publicly available, covering the period from July 1983 through June 2017. This supersedes the SRB Rel3 (Stackhouse et al., 2011) product which has been used in the community for a wide variety of applications, including climate model validation, agriculture, solar energy, and architecture. SRB Rel4 uses the newly recalibrated and processed ISCCP HXS product as its primary input for cloud and radiance data, replacing ISCCP DX with a ninefold increase in pixel count (10km instead of 30km). This version retains a 1°x1° resolution but benefits from a much larger number of samples per grid box than the SRB Rel3. ISCCP also provides an atmospheric temperature and moisture dataset known as nnHIRS which we use here, along with Seaflux and Landflux surface and near-surface meteorological parameters. Rel4 incorporates several important algorithm improvements. These include recalculated shortwave (SW) atmospheric transmissivities and reflectivities yielding a somewhat less transmissive atmosphere. Both shortwave and longwave (LW) now also include variable aerosol composition and radiative properties, allowing for the use of a detailed aerosol history from the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology (MACv1). LW and SW algorithms now produce pristine sky fluxes, allowing the aerosol flux effects to be quantified. For SW, ocean albedo and snow/ice albedo are improved from Release 3. Total solar irradiance is now variable, and reduced to an average of 1361 Wm-2. The radiative treatment of ice cloud is improved. For the LW, a climatological monthly varying spectral surface emissivity is added. Here we evaluate the SRB Rel4 top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface fluxes in the context of weather states and oceanic regions. Weather states (Tselioudis et al., 2013, Tselioudis et al., 2021) are defined by K-means clustering 2-D histograms of satellite-retrieved cloud optical depths and cloud top pressures. The most recent (Tselioudis et al., 2021) weather states derived from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) H-series data results in eight cloud weather states and one clear sky weather state, for a total of nine weather states. We examine the statistics of SRB Rel4 fluxes for each weather state and a variety of relevant land and ocean regions. We compare to similar analyses performed on CERES EBAF and SYN1Deg flux products, and validate against Baseline Surface Radiometer Network (BSRN) land stations and Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) ocean buoy data. It is demonstrated that the weather state concept is valuable when examining the comparative strengths and weaknesses of satellite radiative flux algorithms.

Atmospheric Radiation↗

Chemical imaging of individual stratospheric particles sampled over North America

The increasing size, severity, and frequency of wildfires have led to dramatic increases in particulate matter concentrations in the troposphere. Severe wildfires can generate intense convective systems capable of transporting large quantities of biomass burning organic aerosols (BBOA) to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Chemically complex organic matter and light-absorbing carbonaceous material is introduced into stratospheric regions that were historically isolated from direct surface emissions. In this study, stratospheric particles were sampled over North America during the Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summer Stratosphere (DCOTSS) campaign, an aircraft-based research project designed to characterize convective perturbation in the UTLS. Particle samples collected from six research flights during summer 2022 were analyzed using Computer-Controlled Scanning Electron Microscopy and Scanning Transmission X-ray Microscopy to investigate particle size distributions, morphology, chemical composition, and mixing state of stratospheric particles along transects across the continental United States and adjacent Pacific Ocean airspace. Analysis revealed that all sampled particles contained detectable levels of carbon, with most exhibiting organic volume fractions of 0.37 ± 0.20. Notably, about 5% of the particles also contained soot inclusions, which indicates the presence of refractory black carbon transported to stratospheric altitudes and provides direct evidence of wildfire-derived black carbon reaching the UTLS. Typical particle morphology exhibits organic shells over soot and inorganic cores and suggests secondary processing and aging of BBOA during transport to and within the UTLS. These findings provide compelling evidence that wildfire emissions play a critical role in affecting the long-term composition and radiative properties of stratospheric particles.

Sharpe, Steven [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (↗

Laboratory Simulations of Ammonia-Rich Oceans in Icy Worlds

Improved equations of state for ammonia-water solutions are important for properly understanding the interiors of large icy satellites hosting deep interior oceans. Titan is the primary example of such a world, but water-rich dwarf planets Measurements of solution density are now possible at relevant pressures (above approx. 250 megapascals) using the Simulator for Icy World Interiors. Analysis of sound velocity measurements in aqueous magnesium sulfate obtained in our laboratory, shows a correction on the order of 5% to 700 megapascals (7 kilobar) from -20 to 100 C and to 3 m (approx. 30 percentage by weight) concentration. Accurate prediction of density as a function of pressure, temperature, and ammonia concentration are needed for interpretation of remote observations to address questions of interior liquid layer depth, composition, and fluid dynamics.

equations of state↗

Mission Adaptive UAS Platform for Earth Science Resource Assessment

NASA Ames Research Center has led a number of important Earth science remote sensing missions including several directed at the assessment of natural resources. A key asset for accessing high risk airspace has been the 180 kg class SIERRA UAS platform, providing mission durations of up to 8 hrs at altitudes up to 3 km. Recent improvements to this mission capability are embodied in the incipient SIERRA-B variant. Two resource mapping problems having unusual mission characteristics requiring a mission adaptive capability are explored here. One example involves the requirement for careful control over solar angle geometry for passive reflectance measurements. This challenges the management of resources in the coastal ocean where solar angle combines with sea state to produce surface glint that can obscure the ocean color signal. Furthermore, as for all scanning imager applications, the primary flight control priority to fly the UAS directly to the next waypoint should compromise with the requirement to minimize roll and crab effects in the imagery. A second example involves the mapping of natural resources in the Earth's crust using precision magnetometry. In this case the vehicle flight path must be oriented to optimize magnetic flux gradients over a spatial domain having continually emerging features, while optimizing the efficiency of the spatial mapping task. These requirements were highlighted in several recent Earth Science missions including the October 2013 OCEANIA mission directed at improving the capability for hyperspectral reflectance measurements in the coastal ocean, and the Surprise Valley Mission directed at mapping sub-surface mineral composition and faults, using high-sensitivity magentometry. This paper reports the development of specific aircraft control approaches to incorporate the unusual and demanding requirements to manage solar angle, aircraft attitude and flight path orientation, and efficient (directly geo-rectified) surface and sub-surface mapping, including the near-time optimization of these sometimes conflicting requirements. *

Flight Control↗