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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Full-stack Quantification of Variability in Predicting Ion Transport Properties using Machine-learned Interatomic Potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have become the state-of-the-art for performing accurate, scalable molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. It is therefore crucial to understand and quantify the reliability of MLIPs for downstream property predictions. Uncertainty in predicted properties can arise from limitations in first-principles training data, intrinsic MLIP model errors in representing the data, and the statistical noise introduced during subsequent MD simulations. Using ion transport in Li7P3S11 as a case study, we systematically assess the impact of training set size and selection, neural network stochasticity, and MD sampling statistics on predicted diffusivity and activation energy. We find that when using equivariant MLIP architectures with standard MD protocols, uncertainty arising from MD sampling dominates over model-induced errors. In contrast, MLIP errors relative to the underlying first-principles data are consistently minor. Given this, there are two main routes to improving the accuracy of predictions based on MLIP potentials: adopting higher accuracy reference data generation methods, and improving the MD sampling statistics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical semi-Markov models with duration-aware dynamics for activity sequences

Residential electricity demand at granular scales is driven by what people do and for how long. Accurately forecasting this demand for applications like microgrid management and demand response therefore requires generative models for activities that can produce realistic daily activity sequences, capturing both the timing and duration of human behavior. This paper develops a generative model of human activity sequences using nationally representative time-use diaries at a 10-min resolution. We use this model to quantify which demographic factors are most critical for improving predictive performance. We propose a hierarchical semi-Markov framework that addresses two key modeling challenges. First, a time-inhomogeneous Markov router learns the patterns of “which activity comes next.” Second, a semi-Markov hazard component explicitly models activity durations, capturing “how long” activities realistically last. To ensure statistical stability when data are sparse, the model pools information across related demographic groups and time blocks. The entire framework is trained and evaluated using survey design weights to ensure our findings are representative of the U.S. population. On a held-out test set, we demonstrate that explicitly modeling durations with the hazard component provides a substantial and statistically significant improvement over purely Markovian models. Furthermore, our analysis reveals a clear hierarchy of demographic factors: Sex, Day-Type, and Household Size provide the largest predictive gains, while Region and Season, though important for energy calculations, contribute little to predicting the activity sequence itself. The result is an interpretable and robust generator of synthetic activity traces, providing a high-fidelity foundation for downstream energy systems modeling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning method for enforcing variable independence in background estimation with LHC data: ABCDisCoTEC

A novel solution is presented for the problem of estimating the backgrounds of a signal search using observed data while simultaneously maximizing the sensitivity of the search to the signal. The 'ABCD method' provides a reliable framework for background estimation by partitioning events into one signal-enhanced region (A) and three background-enhanced control regions (B, C, and D) via two smoothly varying, statistically independent variables. In practice, even slight correlations between the two variables can significantly undermine the method's performance. Thus, choosing appropriate variables by hand can present a formidable challenge, especially when background and signal differ only subtly. To address this issue, the ABCD with distance correlation (ABCDisCo) method was developed to construct two learned variables via a neural network trained to provide strong signal-background discrimination with small values of the distance correlation (DisCo) measure between the two learned variables. However, relying solely on minimizing the DisCo can result in learned variables that may not have distributions of background events that are smoothly varying and localized at extreme values, as necessary for the validity of the background estimation. The ABCDisCo training enhanced with closure (ABCDisCoTEC) method is introduced to solve this issue by directly minimizing the nonclosure, expressed as a dedicated differentiable loss term. This extended method is applied to a data set of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded by the CMS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Additionally, given the complexity of the minimization problem with constraints on multiple loss terms, the modified differential method of multipliers is applied and shown to greatly improve the stability and robustness of the ABCDisCoTEC method, compared to grid search hyperparameter optimization procedures.

Hayrapetyan, Aram [Yerevan Phys. Inst.]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning insights into microstructural origins of transport and mechanical properties in porous microstructures

Multifunctional porous materials are increasingly needed across various fields, but their complex microstructures create significant challenges due to the intricate microstructure-property relationships. This complexity, combined with limitations of traditional analysis methods, hinders efforts to understand and optimize microstructure–property relationships. Here, to address this, we integrate physics-based mesoscale modeling with interpretable machine learning (ML) to uncover how microstructural features govern effective diffusivity and elastic modulus. At constant porosity, we show diffusivity varies by over 150 × and modulus by ∼50 ×, highlighting the power of microstructure engineering. Statistical analysis reveals bimodal behavior in diffusivity and unimodal in modulus. ML identifies connectivity as the dominant factor, while modulus is also sensitive to domain size and feature interactions. Controlled simulations further highlight domain shape as a critical feature for modulus. This framework enables efficient exploration of microstructure-property correlations, offering new insights to guide the design of advanced porous materials.

Bicontinuous microstructure↗
DOE OSTI2025

Describing Point Defect Topology in 2D Energy Materials Through Computer Vision

Point defects such as vacancies and impurity atoms strongly impact the performance of 2D materials. Traditional efforts often rely on manual detection, a process that is time-intensive, prone to human error, and challenging to scale. Here we leverage machine learning (ML) methods to identify and quantify vacancies within 2D transition metal carbides (Ti3C2, MXenes), aiming to expedite detection while improving accuracy. MXenes exhibit valuable defect-defined electrochemical properties, but we currently lack statistical understanding of defect topology needed to fully harness these materials. We employ a convolutional neural network for semantic segmentation of experimental MXene images, opening an opportunity to conduct a rigorous statistical study on defect hierarchy while investigating local relaxation in the lattice. We show how the integration of ML can yield fundamental insight into point defects, providing a powerful tool that will play an increasingly crucial role in the future of materials science.

2D materials↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring scenarios for enhanced fuel compression and performance on the National Ignition Facility with machine-learning-aided design techniques

Recent fusion experiments on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) have achieved ignition, producing multi-MJ fusion yields for input laser energies of roughly 2 MJ [Abu-Shawareb et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 132, 065102 (2024)]. Building on the success of the target designs that have achieved ignition, we explore new implosion scenarios predicted to generate significantly more compression of the dense DT ice layer and correspondingly higher yields while preserving many of the key physics characteristics of present-day ignition designs. Our main result is a novel 3-shock implosion scheme that effectively minimizes the shock-induced entropy in the dense, accelerating DT shell and maximizes the resulting fuel compression subject to a fixed leading shock strength consistent with present-day ignition experiments, which is necessary to melt the crystalline high-density carbon ablator. Compared to the first NIF experiment to fulfill Lawson's ignition criterion, shot N210808 [Abu-Shawareb et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 129, 075001 (2022)], our design exhibits a 40% increase in simulated peak areal density (ρR) and a 5× increase in 1D fusion yield using a 4% lighter ablator and identical DT payloads. We also present a complete integrated 2D hohlraum design and laser pulse specifications capable of generating the desired 3-shock drive and maintaining control of the low-mode capsule implosion symmetry, where the increase in simulated 2D yield relative to N210808 is > 10×. This new implosion regime was discovered with help from a machine-learning-enabled capsule design optimization framework. We outline the workflow this automated tool uses to identify improved design candidates by running several rounds of capsule simulations, constructing a surrogate model mapping input variations to key physics output quantities, and querying the resulting statistical model to propose adjustments to the x-ray drive and capsule to reach a set of physics objectives prescribed by the designer.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Describing Point Defect Topology in 2D Energy Materials through Computer Vision

Point defects such as vacancies and impurity atoms strongly impact the performance of 2D materials. Traditional efforts often rely on manual detection, a process that is time-intensive, prone to human error, and challenging to scale. Here we leverage machine learning (ML) methods to identify and quantify vacancies within 2D transition metal carbides (Ti3C2, MXenes), aiming to expedite detection while improving accuracy. MXenes exhibit valuable defect-defined electrochemical properties, but we currently lack statistical understanding of defect topology needed to fully harness these materials. Here we employ a convolutional neural network for semantic segmentation of experimental MXene images, opening an opportunity to conduct a rigorous statistical study on defect hierarchy while investigating local relaxation in the lattice. We show how the integration of ML can yield fundamental insight into point defects, providing a powerful tool that will play an increasingly crucial role in the future of materials science.

2d materials↗
DOE OSTI2026

Status of 1eNp0π Charged-Current Electron Neutrino Cross Section on Argon in the NuMI Beam at ICARUS

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Program is designed to probe short-baseline neutrino anomalies, including the LSND electron neutrino excess and the MiniBooNE low-energy excess. Essential to interpreting these anomalies and to the success of future experiments like DUNE, is the precise measurement of neutrino-argon interaction cross sections. The program utilizes two liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detectors: the Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND) located 110 meters downstream from the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) target, and the ICARUS detector positioned 600 meters downstream. Additionally, the ICARUS detector lies off-axis to the NuMI beamline, providing a unique, high-statistics flux of electron neutrinos and sensitivity to energies that overlap with the DUNE spectrum. To analyze the data from these detectors, we have begun employing a machine-learning-based reconstruction algorithm referred to as “Scalable Particle Imaging with Neural Embeddings” (SPINE). SPINE has shown improvement in the ability to reconstruct the properties of final state particles in the detector, like the particle ID and momentum, with the potential to enhance the quality of measurements achievable within the SBN Program e.g., the resolution on kinematics used in differential cross section extraction. This poster presents progress toward measuring the electron neutrino argon interaction cross section in the 1eNp0π topology using the NuMI beam, highlighting the impact of SPINE through the ability to select signal events across a wide kinematic range without sacrificing background rejection power.

Carber, Dan [Colorado State U.] (ORCID:00090006451↗
DOE OSTI2026

Robust Design Under Uncertainty in Quantum Error Mitigation

Error mitigation techniques are crucial to achieving near-term quantum advantage. Classical postprocessing of quantum computation outcomes is a popular approach for error mitigation, which includes methods, such as zero noise extrapolation, virtual distillation, and learning-based error mitigation. However, these techniques have limitations due to the propagation of uncertainty resulting from the finite shot number of a quantum measurement. In this work, we introduce general and unbiased methods for quantifying the uncertainty and error of error-mitigated observables based on the strategic sampling of error mitigation outcomes. We then extend our approach to demonstrate the optimization of performance and robustness of error mitigation under uncertainty. To illustrate our methods, we apply them to zero noise extrapolation and Clifford date regression in the ground state of the XY model simulated using depolarizing and International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Toronto noise models, respectively. In particular, we optimize the choice of noise levels and the allocation of shots for zero noise extrapolation and the distribution of the training circuits for Clifford data regression. While our methods are readily applicable to any postprocessing-based error mitigation approach, in practice they must not be prohibitively expensive—even though they perform optimizations of the error mitigation hyperparameters requiring sampling of a statistical distribution of error mitigation outcomes. By leveraging surrogate-based optimization, we show that our methods can efficiently perform optimal design for a zero noise extrapolation implementation. We then further demonstrate the transferability of learned zero noise extrapolation hyperparameters to other similar circuits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Revisiting point defect thermodynamics in group IVB and VB transition metal carbides

We present a comprehensive re-examination of point defect thermodynamics in group IVB and VB transition metal carbides (TMCs) with the rocksalt structure using a combination of density functional theory (DFT) calculations and a statistical mechanical Wagner-Schottky model within the canonical ensemble. The most stable configurations of point defects were discovered using basin-hopping global optimization, driven by either a machine learning interatomic potential (MLIP) or DFT. A key finding is the identification of previously unreported dicarbon antisites—a C–C dimer occupying a metal site—as the structural (constitutional) defects on the carbon-rich side of stoichiometry in all group IVB and VB TMCs except TaC. Furthermore, dicarbon antisite-containing thermal defect complexes, such as quadruple and interbranch defects, can dominate in TMCs under specific stoichiometric and temperature conditions. In conclusion, by incorporating dicarbon antisites into the defect landscape, this work provides a revised understanding of the thermodynamics of point defects in TMCs.

Carbides↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Agnostic Feature-Target Analysis & Ranking Machine Learning Pipeline (DAFTAR-ML) v0.1.0

DAFTAR-ML is a specialized machine-learning pipeline that identifies relevant features based on their relationship to a target variable. Many ML pipelines focus solely on prediction, and feature ranking is often absent or lacks robust statistical methods. DAFTAR-ML performs its tasks with this outcome in mind. Model training is robust, using nested cross-validation and hyperparameter tuning. Instead of relying on native feature-importance scores, it employs SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to quantify feature importance. The pipeline also produces comprehensive results, including publication-quality visualizations.

Melie, Tina [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving the Parameterization of Cloud and Rain Microphysics in E3SM using Novel Observationally-Constrained Bayesian Approach (Final Technical Report)

In this project, we sought to develop new cloud and rain microphysics frameworks within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). This work encompassed two primary avenues of research: 1) Further development of a Bayesian-based scheme called BOSS (Bayesian Observationally-constrained Statistical-physical Scheme) to represent cloud and rain microphysics, testing it in realistic high-resolution cloud models, and implementing it in E3SM; 2) Development of a methodology utilizing machine learning to enable computationally tractable use of tractable use of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling for Bayesian parameter estimation in Earth system and cloud models. In this project, we adapted the BOSS microphysics scheme, originally formulated for rain-only, to include all liquid-phase microphysical processes for cloud and rain, in particular the processes that mediate between these two categories, for example the conversion from cloud to rain through collision and coalescence of drops. We constrained the scheme via comparison and testing against a detailed model that explicitly represents the evolution of cloud and rain particles, called a bin microphysics scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of fluxon synapse device based on superconducting loops for energy efficient neuromorphic computing

With Moore’s law nearing its end due to the physical scaling limitations of CMOS technology, alternative computing approaches have gained considerable attention as ways to improve computing performance. Here, we evaluate performance prospects of a new approach based on disordered superconducting loops with Josephson-junctions for energy efficient neuromorphic computing. Synaptic weights can be stored as internal trapped fluxon states of three superconducting loops connected with multiple Josephson-junctions (JJ) and modulated by input signals applied in the form of discrete fluxons (quantized flux) in a controlled manner. The stable trapped fluxon state directs the incoming flux through different pathways with the flow statistics representing different synaptic weights. We explore implementation of matrix–vector-multiplication (MVM) operations using arrays of these fluxon synapse devices. We investigate the energy efficiency of online-learning of MNIST dataset. Our results suggest that the fluxon synapse array can provide ~100× reduction in energy consumption compared to other state-of-the-art synaptic devices. This work presents a proof-of-concept that will pave the way for development of high-speed and highly energy efficient neuromorphic computing systems based on superconducting materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

CAHS: Context-Aware Homology Search

Protein homology search is foundational to bioinformatics: it supports annotation transfer, structure/function inference, and evolutionary analysis over rapidly expanding sequence repositories (e.g., UniProtKB). Profile hidden Markov models (pHMMs), as implemented in HMMER, remain the most widely trusted approach because they provide statistically calibrated E-values; however, their gap behavior is fixed once a profile is trained, despite biological evidence that insertion/deletion tolerance varies across flexible loops and intrinsically disordered regions. We present CAHS (Context-Aware Homology Search), a lightweight query-time adapter for pHMM search that incorporates learned and biologically motivated signals without changing HMMER's downstream search pipeline or its calibrated E-value reporting. Given a query sequence, CAHS computes per-residue representations from a protein language model and a disorder predictor, maps these to profile coordinates, and modulates only match-state transition rows (gap-open and gap-extension probabilities) while preserving Plan7 constraints. We comprehensively evaluate CAHS across six structurally diverse protein families and multi-domain architectures against a 570k-sequence target corpus. CAHS expands detection capability, retrieving thousands of additional remote homologs at relaxed thresholds by maintaining alignment quality through flexible regions. For multi-domain proteins, context-aware modulation resolves 94% of fragmented alignments. Crucially, CAHS preserves hit-set invariance at stringent operating points (E<10-10), demonstrating increased statistical confidence without inflating false positives. Furthermore, sharper statistical distinction between homologs and background noise during early filter stages yields up to a 3.87× acceleration in end-to-end wall-clock time on high-performance computing clusters. Overall, CAHS illustrates a practical AI-for-science design pattern: augmenting a trusted probabilistic model with query-specific learned signals to improve interpretable, reproducible inference in data-rich biology.

Bhattaram, Swethasree [Georgia Institute of Techno↗
DOE OSTI2026

Zentropy Theory for Transformative Functionalities of Magnetic and Superconducting Materials

The proposed research developed the zentropy theory through applications to complex magnetic materials and superconductors under the hypothesis that the emergent properties of complex magnetic materials and superconductors can be predicted by statistical mechanics of ergodic microstates with their partition functions computed from DFT-predicted free energies. The key objective is to develop approaches to systematically determine the types and number of microstates and the supercell size in DFT-based calculations through convergency of macroscopic functionalities, with the incorporation of our mixed-space approach accounting for the interactions between periodic supercells. In addition to use scientific intuitions to guide the design of important microstates, the key innovation of the proposed research is to integrate the domain knowledge and the material-property-descriptor database (MPDD) with 4 million microstates, which is supported by our deep neural network machine learning models (SIPFENN: structure-informed prediction of formation energy using neural networks) and integrated with our high throughput DFT Tool Kit (DFTTK). For complex magnetic materials, one of the objectives is to develop approaches to calculate short-range ordering from the statistical distribution of each microstate. For superconductors, the divergency of quasiparticle effective mass at a quantum critical point will be investigated, and the superconducting and non-superconducting microstates will be delineated through analysis of electronic band structure, density of states, charge density, and Fermi surface.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Moment extraction using an unfolding protocol without binning

Deconvolving (“unfolding”) detector distortions is a critical step in the comparison of cross-section measurements with theoretical predictions in particle and nuclear physics. However, most existing approaches require histogram binning while many theoretical predictions are at the level of statistical moments. We develop a new approach to directly unfold distribution moments as a function of another observable without having to first discretize the data. Our moment unfolding technique uses machine learning and is inspired by Boltzmann weight factors and generative adversarial networks (GANs). We demonstrate the performance of this approach using jet substructure measurements in collider physics. With this illustrative example, we find that our moment unfolding protocol is more precise than bin-based approaches and is as or more precise than completely unbinned methods.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards a data-driven model of hadronization using normalizing flows

We introduce a model of hadronization based on invertible neural networks that faithfully reproduces a simplified version of the Lund string model for meson hadronization. Additionally, we introduce a new training method for normalizing flows, termed MAGIC, that improves the agreement between simulated and experimental distributions of high-level (macroscopic) observables by adjusting single-emission (microscopic) dynamics. Our results constitute an important step toward realizing a machine-learning based model of hadronization that utilizes experimental data during training. Finally, we demonstrate how a Bayesian extension to this normalizing-flow architecture can be used to provide analysis of statistical and modeling uncertainties on the generated observable distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The DECam MAGIC Survey: Spectroscopic Follow-up of the Most Metal-poor Stars in the Distant Milky Way Halo *

In this work, we present high-resolution spectroscopic observations for six metal-poor stars with [Fe/H] < –3 (including one with [Fe/H] < –4), selected using narrowband Ca ii HK photometry from the DECam MAGIC Survey. The spectroscopic data confirm the accuracy of the photometric metallicities and allow for the determination of chemical abundances for 16 elements, from carbon to barium. The program stars have chemical abundances consistent with the [Fe/H] < –3 range. A kinematic/dynamical analysis suggests that all program stars belong to the distant Milky Way halo population (heliocentric distances 35 < d helio /kpc ≲ 55), including three with high-energy orbits that might have been associated with the Magellanic system and one, J0026−5445, having parameters consistent with being a member of the Sagittarius stream. The remaining two stars show kinematics consistent with the Gaia-Sausage/Enceladus dwarf galaxy merger. J0433−5548, with [Fe/H] = –4.12, is a carbon-enhanced ultra metal-poor star, with [C/Fe] = +1.73. This star is believed to be a bona fide second-generation star, and its chemical abundance pattern was compared with yields from metal-free supernova models. Results suggest that J0433−5548 could have been formed from a gas cloud enriched by a single supernova explosion from an ∼11 M ⊙ star in the early Universe. The successful identification of such objects demonstrates the reliability of photometric metallicity estimates, which can be used for target selection and statistical studies of faint targets in the Milky Way and its satellite population. These discoveries illustrate the power of measuring chemical abundances of metal-poor Milky Way halo stars to learn more about early galaxy formation and evolution.

CEMP stars↗