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Stochastic forcing of perturbation variance in unbounded shear and deformation flows

An alternative mechanism for growth and maintenance of perturbation variance - amplification in a straining flow of stochastically forced perturbations in the absence of exponential instabilities - is explored, using as examples unbounded constant shear and pure deformation flow for which closed-form solutions are available and neither of which support a nonsingular mode. With diffusive dissipation, amplification of isotropic band-limited stochastic driving is found to be unbounded for the case of pure deformation and to be bounded by a threefold increase at large shear for the case of a linear velocity profile. It is concluded that amplification of stochastic forcing in a straining field can maintain a variance field substantially more energetic than that resulting from the same forcing in the absence of a background straining flow.

Farrell, Brian F.↗

A Simple Postflight Measure of Postural Atania in Astronauts

Astronauts returning from space flight universally present with postural ataxia. Throughout the Space Shuttle Program, measurement of ataxia has concentrated on sway in the anterior-posterior (AP) plane. The current investigation, as a part of a larger functional study, concentrated on characterizing postural instability using dynamic stabilographic sway patterns in both the AP and medial-lateral (ML) planes. To accomplish this goal, six astronauts from short-duration (Shuttle) and three from long-duration (ISS) flights were required to recover from a simulated fall. Subjects with eyes open, wearing running shoes lay prone on the floor for 2 minutes and then quickly stood up, maintained a quiet stance for 3 minutes, arms relaxed along the side of the body, and feet comfortably placed on the force plate. Crewmembers were tested twice before flight, on landing day (Shuttle only), and 1, 6, and 30 days after flight. Anterior-posterior and ML center-of-pressure (COP) coordinates were calculated from the ground reaction forces collected at 500 Hz. The 3-minute quiet stance trial was broken into three 1-minute segments for stabilogram diffusion analysis. A mean sway speed (rate of change of COP displacement) was also calculated as an additional postural stability parameter. While there was considerable variation, most of crewmembers tested exhibited increased stochastic activity evidenced by larger short-term COP diffusion coefficients postflight in both the AP and ML planes, suggesting significant changes in postural control mechanisms, particularly control of lower limb muscle function. As expected, postural instability of ISS astronauts on the first day postflight was similar to that of Shuttle crewmembers on landing day. Recoveries of stochastic activity and mean sway speed to baseline levels were typically observed by the 30th day postflight for both long-duration and short-duration crewmembers. Dynamic postural stability characteristics obtained in this low-impact study complement the data measured with computerized dynamic posturography.

Reschke, M. F.↗

Postflight Quiet Stance Stability of Astronauts Following Recovery From a Simulated Fall

INTRODUCTION: Astronauts returning from space flight universally present with postural ataxia. Throughout the Space Shuttle Program, measurement of ataxia has concentrated on sway in the anterior-posterior plane. Implementation of an interdisciplinary pre- and postflight study (Functional Task Test, FTT) designed to evaluate both astronaut postflight functional performance and related physiological changes has allowed the investigation of postural instability by characterizing dynamic stabilographic sway patterns. METHODS: Six astronauts from short-duration (Shuttle) and three from long-duration (ISS) flights were required to recover from a simulated fall. Subjects with eyes open, wearing running shoes lay prone on the floor for 2 minutes and then quickly stood up, maintained a quiet stance for 3 minutes, arms relaxed along the side of the body, and feet comfortably placed on the force plate. Crewmembers were tested twice before flight, on landing day (Shuttle only), and 1, 6, and 30 days after flight. Anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) center-of-pressure (COP) coordinates were calculated from the ground reaction forces collected at 500 Hz. The 3-minute quiet stance trial was broken into three 1-minute segments for stabilogram diffusion analysis. A mean sway speed (rate of change of COP displacement) was also calculated as an additional postural stability parameter. RESULTS/CONCLUSION: While there was considerable variation, most of crewmembers tested exhibited increased stochastic activity evidenced by larger short-term COP diffusion coefficients postflight in both the AP and ML planes, suggesting significant changes in postural control mechanisms, particularly control of lower limb muscle function. As expected, postural instability of ISS astronauts on the first day postflight was similar to that of Shuttle crewmembers on landing day. Recoveries of stochastic activity and mean sway speed to baseline levels were typically observed by the 30th day postflight for both long-duration and short-duration crewmembers. Dynamic postural stability characteristics obtained in this low-impact study complement the data measured with computerized dynamic posturography.

Reschke, M. F.↗

Enhancing statistical moment calculations for stochastic Galerkin solutions with Monte Carlo techniques

Here, we provide a method for enhancing stochastic Galerkin moment calculations to the linear elliptic equation with random diffusivity using an ensemble of Monte Carlo solutions. This hybrid approach combines the accuracy of low-order stochastic Galerkin and the computational efficiency of Monte Carlo methods to provide statistical moment estimates which are significantly more accurate than performing each method individually. The hybrid approach involves computing a low-order stochastic Galerkin solution, after which Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the residual. We show that the combined stochastic Galerkin solution and residual is superior in both time and accuracy for a one-dimensional test problem and a more computational intensive two-dimensional linear elliptic problem for both the mean and variance quantities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fluctuating hydrodynamics and the Rayleigh–Plateau instability

The Rayleigh–Plateau instability occurs when surface tension makes a fluid column become unstable to small perturbations. At nanometer scales, thermal fluctuations are comparable to interfacial energy densities. Consequently, at these scales, thermal fluctuations play a significant role in the dynamics of the instability. These microscopic effects have previously been investigated numerically using particle-based simulations, such as molecular dynamics (MD), and stochastic partial differential equation–based hydrodynamic models, such as stochastic lubrication theory. In this paper, we present an incompressible fluctuating hydrodynamics model with a diffuse-interface formulation for binary fluid mixtures designed for the study of stochastic interfacial phenomena. An efficient numerical algorithm is outlined and validated in numerical simulations of stable equilibrium interfaces. We present results from simulations of the Rayleigh–Plateau instability for long cylinders pinching into droplets for Ohnesorge numbers of Oh = 0.5 and 5.0. Both stochastic and perturbed deterministic simulations are analyzed and ensemble results show significant differences in the temporal evolution of the minimum radius near pinching. Short cylinders, with lengths less than their circumference, were also investigated. As previously observed in MD simulations, we find that thermal fluctuations cause these to pinch in cases where a perturbed cylinder would be stable deterministically. Finally, we show that the fluctuating hydrodynamics model can be applied to study a broader range of surface tension–driven phenomena.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integrability Breaking from Backscattering

Herein we analyze the onset of diffusive hydrodynamics in the one-dimensional hard-rod gas subject to stochastic backscattering. While this perturbation breaks integrability and leads to a crossover from ballistic to diffusive transport, it preserves infinitely many conserved quantities corresponding to even moments of the velocity distribution of the gas. In the limit of small noise, we derive the exact expressions for the diffusion and structure factor matrices, and show that they generically have off diagonal components. We find that the particle density structure factor is non-Gaussian and singular near the origin, with a return probability showing logarithmic deviations from diffusion.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

An adaptive local reduced basis method for solving PDEs with uncertain inputs and evaluating risk

Many physical systems are modeled using partial differential equations (PDEs) with uncertain or random inputs. For such systems, naively propagating a fixed number of samples of the input probability law (or an approximation thereof) through the PDE is often inadequate to accurately quantify the "risk" associated with critical system responses. In this paper, we develop a goal-oriented, adaptive sampling and local reduced basis approximation for PDEs with random inputs. Our method determines a set of samples and an associated (implicit) Voronoi partition of the parameter domain on which we build local reduced basis approximations of the PDE solution. The samples are selected in an adaptive manner using an a posteriori error indicator. A notable advantage of the proposed approach is that the computational cost of the approximation during the adaptive process remains constant. We provide theoretical error bounds for our approximation and numerically demonstrate the performance of our method when compared to widely used adaptive sparse grid techniques. In addition, we tailor our approach to accurately quantify the risk of quantities of interest that depend on the PDE solution. We demonstrate our method on an advection-diffusion example and a Helmholtz example. Keywords: stochastic partial differential equation, adaptive sampling, reduced basis, a posteriori error estimation, coherent risk measure, conditional value-at-risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Coupling Warm Rain With an Eddy Diffusivity/Mass Flux Parameterization: 1. Model Description and Validation

A new version of the stochastic multiplume Jet Propulsion Laboratory Eddy-Diffusivity/Mass-Flux (JPL-EDMF) parameterization which consistently couples the simplified Khairoutdinov and Kogan (2000), https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<0229:ANCPPI>2.0.CO;2, warm phase cloud microphysical parameterization with the parameterization of cloud macrophysical and subgrid scale dynamical processes is described. The new parameterization combines the EDMF approach with an assumed shape of a joint probability density function of thermodynamic and kinematic variables which provide the basis for the computation of all parameterized processes. As far as we are aware this is the first attempt to consistently couple all of these parameterized processes in the EDMF framework. This paper is part one of a two paper series. Here, the JPL-EDMF parameterization is described and benchmark simulations of precipitating stratocumulus and cumulus convection are performed in a single-column-model framework. The parameterization results compare favorably to the reference large-eddy-simulation results. In the second part (Smalley et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002729) the JPL-EDMF parameterization is validated for a wide range of observation-based scenarios covering the continuous transition from subtropical stratocumulus to cumulus convection derived from global reanalysis, and parameterization uncertainties are studied in detail.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Full-stack Quantification of Variability in Predicting Ion Transport Properties using Machine-learned Interatomic Potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have become the state-of-the-art for performing accurate, scalable molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. It is therefore crucial to understand and quantify the reliability of MLIPs for downstream property predictions. Uncertainty in predicted properties can arise from limitations in first-principles training data, intrinsic MLIP model errors in representing the data, and the statistical noise introduced during subsequent MD simulations. Using ion transport in Li7P3S11 as a case study, we systematically assess the impact of training set size and selection, neural network stochasticity, and MD sampling statistics on predicted diffusivity and activation energy. We find that when using equivariant MLIP architectures with standard MD protocols, uncertainty arising from MD sampling dominates over model-induced errors. In contrast, MLIP errors relative to the underlying first-principles data are consistently minor. Given this, there are two main routes to improving the accuracy of predictions based on MLIP potentials: adopting higher accuracy reference data generation methods, and improving the MD sampling statistics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The abundances of hydrogen, helium, oxygen, and iron accelerated in large solar particle events

Energy spectra measured in 10 large flares with the University of Maryland/Max-Planck-Institut sensors on ISEE I and Goddard Space Flight Center sensors on IMP 8 allowed us to determine the average H, He, O, and Fe abundances as functions of energy in the range of about 0.3-80 MeV/nucleon. Model fits to the spectra of individual events using the predictions of a steady state stochastic acceleration model with rigidity-dependent diffusion provided a means of interpolating small portions of the energy spectra not measured with the instrumentation. Particles with larger mass-to-charge ratios were relatively less abundant at higher energies in the flare-averaged composition. The Fe/O enhancement at low SEP energies was less than the Fe/O ratios observed in He-3-rich flares. Unlike the SEP composition averaged above 5 MeV/nucleon, the average SEP abundances above 0.3 MeV/nucleon were similar to the average solar wind.

Mazur, J. E.↗

Balance in Astronauts Performing Jumps, Walking and Quiet Stance Following Spaceflight

Introduction: Both balance and locomotor ataxia is severe in astronauts returning from spaceflight with serious implications for unassisted landings. As a part of an ongoing effort to demonstrate the functional significance of the postflight ataxia problem our laboratory has evaluated jumping, walking heel-to-toe and quite stance balance immediately following spaceflight. Methods: Six astronauts from 12-16 day flights and three from 6-month flights were asked to perform three self-initiated two-footed jumps from a 30-cm-high platform, walking for 10 steps (three trials) placing the feet heel to toe in tandem, arms folded across the chest and the eyes closed, and lastly, recover from a simulated fall by standing from a prone position on the floor and with eyes open maintain a quiet stance for 3 min with arms relaxed along the side of the body and feet comfortably positioned on a force plate. Crewmembers were tested twice before flight, on landing day (short-duration), and days 1, 6, and 30 following all flight durations. Results/Conclusions: Many of astronauts tested fell on their first postflight jump but recovered by the third jump showing a rapid learning progression. Changes in take-off strategy were clearly evident in duration of time in the air between the platform and the ground (significant reduction in time to land), and also in increased asymmetry in foot latencies on take-off postflight. During the tandem heel-to-toe walking task there was a significant decrease in percentage of correct steps on landing day (short-duration crew) and on first day following landing (long-duration) with only partial recovery the following day. Astronauts for both short and long duration flight times appeared to be unaware of foot position relative to their bodies or the floor. During quite stance most of crewmembers tested exhibited increased stochastic activity (larger short-term COP diffusion coefficients postflight in all planes and increases in mean sway speed).

Reschke, Millard F.↗

Anomalous Transport of High Energy Cosmic Rays in Galactic Superbubbles

High-energy cosmic rays may exhibit anomalous transport as they traverse and are accelerated by a collection of supernovae explosions in a galactic superbubble. Signatures of this anomalous transport can show up in the particles' evolution and their spectra. In a continuous-time-random- walk (CTRW) model assuming standard diffusive shock acceleration theory (DSA) for each shock encounter, and where the superbubble (an OB stars association) is idealized as a heterogeneous region of particle sources and sinks, acceleration and transport in the superbubble can be shown to be sub-diffusive. While the sub-diffusive transport can be attributed to the stochastic nature of the acceleration time according to DSA theory, the spectral break appears to be an artifact of transport in a finite medium. These CTRW simulations point to a new and intriguing phenomenon associated with the statistical nature of collective acceleration of high energy cosmic rays in galactic superbubbles.

Barghouty, Nasser F.↗

A Numerical Study of Forbush Decreases with a 3D Cosmic-Ray Modulation Model Based on an SDE Approach

Based on the reduced diffusion mechanism for producing Forbush decreases (Fds) in the heliosphere, we constructed a three-dimensional (3D) diffusion barrier, and by incorporating it into a stochastic differential equation (SDE) based time-dependent, cosmic-ray transport model, a 3D numerical model for simulating Fds is built and applied to a period of relatively quiet solar activity. This SDE model generally corroborates previous Fd simulations concerning the effects of the solar magnetic polarity, the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), and cosmic-ray particle energy. Because the modulation processes in this 3D model are multi-directional, the barrier’s geometrical features affect the intensity profiles of Fds differently. We find that both the latitudinal and longitudinal extent of the barrier have relatively fewer effects on these profiles than its radial extent and the level of decreased diffusion inside the disturbance. We find, with the 3D approach, that the HCS rotational motion causes the relative location from the observation point to the HCS to vary, so that a periodic pattern appears in the cosmic-ray intensity at the observing location. Correspondingly, the magnitude and recovery time of an Fd change, and the recovering intensity profile contains oscillation as well. Investigating the Fd magnitude variation with heliocentric radial distance, we find that the magnitude decreases overall and, additionally, that the Fd magnitude exhibits an oscillating pattern as the radial distance increases, which coincides well with the wavy profile of the HCS under quiet solar modulation conditions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

CRPropa 3.1—a low energy extension based on stochastic differential equations

The propagation of charged cosmic rays through the Galactic environment influences all aspects of the observation at Earth. Energy spectrum, composition and arrival directions are changed due to deflections in magnetic fields and interactions with the interstellar medium. Today the transport is simulated with different simulation methods either based on the solution of a transport equation (multi-particle picture) or a solution of an equation of motion (single-particle picture). We developed a new module for the publicly available propagation software CRPropa 3.1, where we implemented an algorithm to solve the transport equation using stochastic differential equations. This technique allows us to use a diffusion tensor which is anisotropic with respect to an arbitrary magnetic background field. The source code of CRPropa is written in C++ with python steering via SWIG which makes it easy to use and computationally fast. In this paper, we present the new low-energy propagation code together with validation procedures that are developed to proof the accuracy of the new implementation. Furthermore, we show first examples of the cosmic ray density evolution, which depends strongly on the ratio of the parallel κ{sub ∥} and perpendicular κ{sub ⊥} diffusion coefficients. This dependency is systematically examined as well the influence of the particle rigidity on the diffusion process.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Scalable domain decomposition solvers for stochastic PDEs in high performance computing

Stochastic spectral finite element models of practical engineering systems may involve solutions of linear systems or linearized systems for non-linear problems with billions of unknowns. For stochastic modeling, it is therefore essential to design robust, parallel and scalable algorithms that can efficiently utilize high-performance computing to tackle such large-scale systems. Domain decomposition based iterative solvers can handle such systems. And though these algorithms exhibit excellent scalabilities, significant algorithmic and implementational challenges exist to extend them to solve extreme-scale stochastic systems using emerging computing platforms. Intrusive polynomial chaos expansion based domain decomposition algorithms are extended here to concurrently handle high resolution in both spatial and stochastic domains using an in-house implementation. Sparse iterative solvers with efficient preconditioners are employed to solve the resulting global and subdomain level local systems through multi-level iterative solvers. We also use parallel sparse matrix–vector operations to reduce the floating-point operations and memory requirements. Numerical and parallel scalabilities of these algorithms are presented for the diffusion equation having spatially varying diffusion coefficient modeled by a non-Gaussian stochastic process. Scalability of the solvers with respect to the number of random variables is also investigated.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Stochastic and coarse-grained two-dimensional modeling of directional particle movement

In this work, we study the evolution of interacting groups of pedestrians in two-dimensional geometries. We introduce a microscopic stochastic model that includes floor fields modeling the global flow of individual groups as well as local interaction rules. From this microscopic model we derive an analytically-tractable system of conservation laws that governs the evolution of the macroscopic pedestrian densities. Numerical simulations show good agreement between the system of conservation laws and the microscopic model, though the latter is slightly more diffusive. We conclude by deriving second-order corrections to the system of conservation laws.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Pore diameter dependence of catalytic activity: p -nitrobenzaldehyde conversion to an aldol product in amine-functionalized mesoporous silica

The reaction yield for conversion of p-nitrobenzaldehyde (PNB) to an aldol product in amine-functionalized mesoporous silica nanoparticles (MSN) exhibits a 20-fold enhancement for a modest increase in pore diameter, d. This enhanced catalytic activity is shown to reflect a strong increase in the “passing propensity,” P, of reactant and product species inside the pores. We find that P ≈ 0, corresponding to single-file diffusion, applies for the smallest d which still significantly exceeds the linear dimensions of PNB and the aldol product. However, in this regime of narrow pores, these elongated species must align with each other and with the pore axis in order to pass. Thus, P reflects both translational and rotational diffusion. Langevin simulation accounting for these features is used to determine P versus d. The results are also augmented by analytic theory for small and large d where simulation is inefficient. The connection with the catalytic activity and yield is achieved by the incorporation of results for P into a multi-scale modeling framework. Specifically, we apply a spatially coarse-grained (CG) stochastic model for the overall catalytic reaction-diffusion process in MSN. Pores are treated as linear arrays of cells from the ends of which species adsorb and desorb, and between which species hop and exchange, with the exchange rate reflecting P. CG model predictions including yield are assessed by Kinetic Monte Carlo simulation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗