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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Projecting climate change in South America using variable‐resolution Community Earth System Model: An application to Chile

Abstract We introduce variable‐resolution enabled Community Earth System Model (VR‐CESM) results simulating historical and future climate conditions at 28 km over South America and 14 km over the Andes. Three 30‐year simulations are performed: a historic (1985–2014), a near future (2030–2059), and an end‐century (2070–2099) simulation under the RCP8.5 scenario. Historic results compare favourably to several temperature and precipitation reanalysis products, though local biases are present, particularly during austral summer. Future simulations highlight broad warming patterns (+3–6°C by end‐century) and heterogeneous precipitation responses across South America that qualitatively agree with prior modelling efforts. Our results reveal that the interaction between temperature and precipitation changes produce shifts in several Köppen–Geiger climates. Notable changes include the near‐elimination of the Andean Tundra or Alpine climates, a 15% decrease in Tropical Rainforests and a Tropical Savannah expansion of 20%. To provide a regionally focused analysis of projected climate change and to illustrate the benefits of variable resolution modelling, we analyse changes in the magnitude and trend in seasonal and daily temperature and precipitation in Chile. We also examined several metrics [e.g., snow water equivalent (SWE), temperatures on wet days, and days below 0°C] to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on the Chilean cryosphere between the end‐of‐century and historic periods, finding wide‐ranging indications of cryospheric decline. These changes are interpreted through reductions in the timing (1–2.5 months earlier peak SWE) and magnitude (200–1,000 mm SWE decreases) of water stored as snow in the Andes, a 10–30% decrease in number of cool season wet days with temperatures below 1°C, and 50–200 fewer days (annually) with minimum temperatures below 0°C. Our aim in producing a high‐resolution dataset of climate projections from VR‐CESM is to support analyses of climate change throughout South America but especially in vulnerable montane regions and to provide additional results for comparison with previous, ongoing, and upcoming modelling efforts.

variable-resolution global climate models↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Sea‐Level Rise on Coastal Groundwater Table Simulated by an Earth System Model With a Land‐Ocean Coupling Scheme

Abstract Sea‐level rise (SLR) poses a severe threat to the coastal environment through seawater intrusion into freshwater aquifers. The rising groundwater table also exacerbates the risk of pluvial, fluvial, and groundwater flooding in coastal regions. However, current Earth system models (ESMs) commonly ignore the exchanges of water at the land‐ocean interface. To address this gap, we developed a novel land‐ocean hydrologic coupling scheme in a state‐of‐the‐science ESM, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). The new scheme includes the lateral exchange between seawater and groundwater and the vertical infiltration of seawater driven by the SLR‐induced inundation. Simulations were performed with the updated E3SMv2 for the global land‐ocean interface to assess the impacts of SLR on coastal groundwater under a high CO 2 emission scenario. By the middle of this century, seawater infiltration on the inundated areas will be the dominant component in the land‐ocean coupling process, while the lateral subsurface flow exchange will be much smaller. The SLR‐induced seawater infiltration will raise the groundwater levels, enhance evapotranspiration, and increase runoff with distinct spatial patterns globally in the future. Although the coupling process is induced by SLR, we found topography and warming temperature have more control on the coupling impacts, probably due to the relatively modest magnitude of SLR during the selected future period. Overall, our study suggests significant groundwater and seawater exchange at the land‐ocean interface, which needs to be considered in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Exploring the isopycnal mixing and helium–heat paradoxes in a suite of Earth system models

This paper uses a suite of Earth system models which simulate the distribution of He isotopes and radiocarbon to examine two paradoxes in Earth science, each of which results from an inconsistency between theoretically motivated global energy balances and direct observations. The helium–heat paradox refers to the fact that helium emissions to the deep ocean are far lower than would be expected given the rate of geothermal heating, since both are thought to be the result of radioactive decay in Earth's interior. The isopycnal mixing paradox comes from the fact that many theoretical parameterizations of the isopycnal mixing coefficient A Redi that link it to baroclinic instability project it to be small (of order a few hundred m 2 s −1 ) in the ocean interior away from boundary currents. However, direct observations using tracers and floats (largely in the upper ocean) suggest that values of this coefficient are an order of magnitude higher. Helium isotopes equilibrate rapidly with the atmosphere and thus exhibit large gradients along isopycnals while radiocarbon equilibrates slowly and thus exhibits smaller gradients along isopycnals. Thus it might be thought that resolving the isopycnal mixing paradox in favor of the higher observational estimates of A Redi might also solve the helium paradox, by increasing the transport of mantle helium to the surface more than it would radiocarbon. In this paper we show that this is not the case. In a suite of models with different spatially constant and spatially varying values of A Redi the distribution of radiocarbon and helium isotopes is sensitive to the value of A Redi . However, away from strong helium sources in the southeastern Pacific, the relationship between the two is not sensitive, indicating that large-scale advection is the limiting process for removing helium and radiocarbon from the deep ocean. The helium isotopes, in turn, suggest a higher value of A Redi below the thermocline than is seen in theoretical parameterizations based on baroclinic growth rates. We argue that a key part of resolving the isopycnal mixing paradox is to abandon the idea that A Redi has a direct relationship to local baroclinic instability and to the so-called "thickness" mixing coefficient A GM .

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Systems and methods for distributed power system model calibration

A computing device for distributed power system model calibration is provided. The computing device is programmed to receive event data and model response data associated with a model to simulate, wherein the model includes a plurality of parameters, divide the event data into a plurality of sets, wherein each set includes associated parameters, and transmit the plurality of sets of event data to a plurality of client nodes. Each client node of the plurality of client nodes is programmed to analyze a corresponding set of event data to determine updated parameters for the model. The computing device is further programmed to receive a plurality of updated parameters for the model from the plurality of client nodes and analyze the received plurality of updated parameters to determine at least one adjusted parameter.

Wang, Honggang↗
DOE OSTI2018

Validation of a Statistical Methodology for Extracting Vegetation Feedbacks: Focus on North African Ecosystems in the Community Earth System Model

Generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA) is a potentially valuable multivariate statistical tool for extracting vegetation feedbacks to the atmosphere in either observations or coupled Earth system models. The reliability of GEFA at capturing the terrestrial impacts on regional climate is demonstrated here using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM), with focus on North Africa. The feedback is assessed statistically by applying GEFA to output from a fully coupled control run. To reduce the sampling error caused by short data records, the traditional or full GEFA is refined through stepwise GEFA by dropping unimportant forcings. Two ensembles of dynamical experiments are developed for the Sahel or West African monsoon region against which GEFA-based vegetation feedbacks are evaluated. In these dynamical experiments, regional leaf area index (LAI) is modified either alone or in conjunction with soil moisture, with the latter runs motivated by strong regional soil moisture–LAI coupling. Stepwise GEFA boasts higher consistency between statistically and dynamically assessed atmospheric responses to land surface anomalies than full GEFA, especially with short data records. GEFA-based atmospheric responses are more consistent with the coupled soil moisture–LAI experiments, indicating that GEFA is assessing the combined impacts of coupled vegetation and soil moisture. Both the statistical and dynamical assessments reveal a negative vegetation–rainfall feedback in the Sahel associated with an atmospheric stability mechanism in CESM versus a weaker positive feedback in the West African monsoon region associated with a moisture recycling mechanism in CESM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

A production-tagged aerosol module for Earth system models, OsloAero5.3 – extensions and updates for CAM5.3-Oslo

Abstract. We document model updates and present and discuss modeling and validation results from a further developed production-tagged aerosol module, OsloAero5.3, for use in Earth system models. The aerosol module has in this study been implemented and applied in CAM5.3-Oslo. This model is based on CAM5.3–CESM1.2 and its own predecessor model version CAM4-Oslo. OsloAero5.3 has improved treatment of emissions, aerosol chemistry, particle life cycle, and aerosol–cloud interactions compared to its predecessor OsloAero4.0 in CAM4-Oslo. The main new features consist of improved aerosol sources; the module now explicitly accounts for aerosol particle nucleation and secondary organic aerosol production, with new emissions schemes also for sea salt, dimethyl sulfide (DMS), and marine primary organics. Mineral dust emissions are updated as well, adopting the formulation of CESM1.2. The improved model representation of aerosol–cloud interactions now resolves heterogeneous ice nucleation based on black carbon (BC) and mineral dust calculated by the model and treats the activation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) as in CAM5.3. Compared to OsloAero4.0 in CAM4-Oslo, the black carbon (BC) mass concentrations are less excessive aloft, with a better fit to observations. Near-surface mass concentrations of BC and sea salt aerosols are also less biased, while sulfate and mineral dust are slightly more biased. Although appearing quite similar for CAM5.3-Oslo and CAM4-Oslo, the validation results for organic matter (OM) are inconclusive, since both of the respective versions of OsloAero are equipped with a limited number of OM tracers for the sake of computational efficiency. Any information about the assumed mass ratios of OM to organic carbon (OC) for different types of OM sources is lost in the transport module. Assuming that observed OC concentrations scaled by 1.4 are representative for the modeled OM concentrations, CAM5.3-Oslo with OsloAero5.3 is slightly inferior for the very sparsely available observation data. Comparing clear-sky column-integrated optical properties with data from ground-based remote sensing, we find a negative bias in optical depth globally; however, it is not as strong as in CAM4-Oslo, but has positive biases in some areas typically dominated by mineral dust emissions. Aerosol absorption has a larger negative bias than the optical depth globally. This is reflected in a lower positive bias in areas where mineral dust is the main contributor to absorption. Globally, the low bias in absorption is smaller than in CAM4-Oslo. The Ångström parameter exhibits small biases both globally and regionally, suggesting that the aerosol particle sizes are reasonably well represented. Cloud-top droplet number concentrations over oceans are generally underestimated compared to satellite retrievals, but seem to be overestimated downwind of major emissions of dust and biomass burning sources. Finally, we find small changes in direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere, while the cloud radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols is now more negative than in CAM4-Oslo, being on the strong side compared to the multi-model estimate in IPCC AR5. Although not all validation results in this study show improvement for the present CAM5.3-Oslo version, the extended and updated aerosol module OsloAero5.3 is more advanced and applicable than its predecessor OsloAero4.0, as it includes new parameterizations that more readily facilitate sensitivity and process studies and use in climate and Earth system model studies in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Time-Dependent Cryospheric Longwave Surface Emissivity Feedback in the Community Earth System Model

Frozen and unfrozen surfaces exhibit different longwave surface emissivities with different spectral characteristics, and outgoing longwave radiation and cooling rates are reduced for unfrozen scenes relative to frozen ones. In this paper physically realistic modeling of spectrally resolved surface emissivity throughout the coupled model components of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is advanced, and implications for model high-latitude biases and feedbacks are evaluated. It is shown that despite a surface emissivity feedback amplitude that is, at most, a few percent of the surface albedo feedback amplitude, the inclusion of realistic, harmonized longwave, spectrally resolved emissivity information in CESM1.2.2 reduces wintertime Arctic surface temperature biases from -7.2 ± 0.9 K to -1.1 ± 1.2 K, relative to observations. The bias reduction is most pronounced in the Arctic Ocean, a region for which Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) models exhibit the largest mean wintertime cold bias, suggesting that persistent polar temperature biases can be lessened by including this physically based process across model components. The ice emissivity feedback of CESM1.2.2 is evaluated under a warming scenario with a kernel-based approach, and it is found that emissivity radiative kernels exhibit water vapor and cloud cover dependence, thereby varying spatially and decreasing in magnitude over the course of the scenario from secular changes in atmospheric thermodynamics and cloud patterns. Finally, accounting for the temporally varying radiative responses can yield diagnosed feedbacks that differ in sign from those obtained from conventional climatological feedback analysis methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models

Abstract This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of −0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C −1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from −0.2 to −2 ppbv °C −1 , with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C −1 , implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.

Zanis, Prodromos↗
DOE OSTI2013

A Physically Based Runoff Routing Model for Land Surface and Earth System Models

A new physically based runoff routing model, called the Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART), has been developed to be applicable across local, regional, and global scales. Within each spatial unit, surface runoff is first routed across hillslopes and then discharged along with subsurface runoff into a ‘‘tributary subnetwork’’ before entering the main channel. The spatial units are thus linked via routing through the main channel network, which is constructed in a scale-consistent way across different spatial resolutions. All model parameters are physically based, and only a small subset requires calibration.MOSART has been applied to the Columbia River basin at 1/ 168, 1/ 88, 1/ 48, and 1/ 28 spatial resolutions and was evaluated using naturalized or observed streamflow at a number of gauge stations. MOSART is compared to two other routing models widely used with land surface models, the River Transport Model (RTM) in the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Lohmann routing model, included as a postprocessor in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model package, yielding consistent performance at multiple resolutions. MOSART is further evaluated using the channel velocities derived from field measurements or a hydraulic model at various locations and is shown to be capable of producing the seasonal variation and magnitude of channel velocities reasonably well at different resolutions. Moreover, the impacts of spatial resolution on model simulations are systematically examined at local and regional scales. Finally, the limitations ofMOSART and future directions for improvements are discussed.

runoff routing, scale adaptive↗
DOE OSTI2015

Collaborative Project. A Flexible Atmospheric Modeling Framework for the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

In this project we have been upgrading the Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), also known as Super-Parameterized CAM (SP-CAM). This has included a major effort to update the coding standards and interface with CAM so that it can be placed on the main development trunk. It has also included development of a new software structure for CAM to be able to handle sub-grid column information. These efforts have formed the major thrust of the work.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Plant-microbe interactions: from genes to ecosystems using Populus as a model system

Plant-microbe symbioses span a continuum from pathogenic to mutualistic with functional consequences for both organisms in the symbiosis. In order to increase sustainable food and fuel production in the future, it is imperative that we harness these symbioses. The tree genus Populus is an excellent model system for studies examining plant-microbe interactions due to the wealth of genomic information available and the molecular tools that have been developed to manipulate Populus-microbe symbioses. In this review, we highlight how Populus can serve as a model system to explore plant-microbe interactions. Specifically, highlighting research linking Populus-microbe interactions from the gene to the ecosystem level. We explore why Populus is an excellent model for perennial plant systems, the molecular underpinnings of Populus-microbe interactions, how host genetics influence microbial community composition, and how microbial communities vary at fine spatial scales and between Populus species. Further, we explore how the patterns of the microbiome may affect ecosystem level functions in managed and natural ecosystems. Understanding and manipulating these interactions in Populus has the potential to improve plant health and impact ecosystem sustainability and processes as Populus trees function as foundational species in many natural ecosystems and are also deployed in managed ecosystems for various agroforestry applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Complex Systems Models and Their Applications: Towards a New Science of Verification, Validation & Uncertainty Quantification

This report contains the written footprint of a Sandia-hosted workshop held in Albuquerque, New Mexico, June 22-23, 2016 on “Complex Systems Models and Their Applications: Towards a New Science of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification,” as well as of pre-work that fed into the workshop. The workshop’s intent was to explore and begin articulating research opportunities at the intersection between two important Sandia communities: the complex systems (CS) modeling community, and the verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) community The overarching research opportunity (and challenge) that we ultimately hope to address is: how can we quantify the credibility of knowledge gained from complex systems models, knowledge that is often incomplete and interim, but will nonetheless be used, sometimes in real-time, by decision makers?

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Common Electric Power Transmission System Model JSON Schema Specification

The Common Electric Power Transmission System Model (CTM) is an intuitive, extensible, language-agnostic, and error-resistant specification of electric power network components parameter names and units, and relation between components, intended for use by the research community developing new computational methods for power systems operations and simulation. Power system datasets following the CTM specification can be read as dictionaries and manipulated in that form in most programming languages (e.g., Python, Julia, C++). This standard data structure in CTM makes it easy to work in multiple power systems domains (e.g., economic operation, reliability assessment, electricity markets, stability assessment, etc.) without requiring conversions between use-case-specific file formats with information loss in the process. This repository specifies CTM as a JSON Schema, provides documentation, derivate (code-generated) implementations of CTM, and example data and usage of the schema for important use cases.

Aravena Solis, Ignacio↗
DOE OSTI2017

Advances in Geologic Disposal System Modeling and Shale Reference Cases

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Fuel Cycle Technology (OFCT) is conducting research and development (R&D) on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high level nuclear waste (HLW). Two high priorities for SFWST disposal R&D are design concept development and disposal system modeling (DOE 2011, Table 6). These priorities are directly addressed in the SFWST Generic Disposal Systems Analysis (GDSA) work package, which is charged with developing a disposal system modeling and analysis capability for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media (e.g., salt, granite, shale, and deep borehole disposal).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving Predictability of Mixed-Phase Clouds and Aerosol Interactions in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with ARM Measurements

The objective of this project is to improve the simulation and predictability of mixed-phase clouds and aerosol interactions in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) through comparisons with the DOE ARM observations. There are four major goals of the proposed study: (1) Improve the representation of ice microphysical processes in mixed-phase clouds; (2) Develop a long-term multi-sensor mixed-phase cloud dataset; (3) Test the performance of improved ice microphysics in CESM-CAM5 with the ARM data; and (4) Examine mixed-phase cloud microphysics-aerosol-dynamics-radiation interactions in CESM-CAM5. In this project, we have (1) Improved the representation of ice microphysical processes in mixed-phase clouds that include ice nucleation, ice depositional growth through the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) process, feedbacks between cloud microphysics, dynamics and radiation, and provides links to aerosol properties in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)-Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5); (2) Developed a long-term multi-sensor mixed-phase cloud dataset. The mixed-phase cloud retrieval algorithms are improved by refining the phase determinations and ice number concentration retrievals. A multi-year mixed-phase cloud observation dataset (1999-2004; October 2013-February 2017) is regenerated at the ARM Barrow site with the improved algorithms. The dataset has been used in the global model evaluation to improve the model parameterizations; (3) Tested the performance of improved ice microphysics in CESM-CAM5 with the ARM data. CESM-CAM5 is run in the DOE Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed (CAPT) and in the single-column model (SCM) mode to facilitate comparison with ARM observations. Multi-year CAPT simulations of seasonal variations of cloud microphysical properties, cloud liquid water path (LWP) and ice water path (IWP), cloud longwave and shortwave forcings, cloud occurrence frequency are evaluated against the ARM multi-sensor mixed-phase cloud retrievals; and (4) Examined mixed-phase cloud microphysics-aerosol-dynamics-radiation interactions in CESM-CAM5 that include the impacts of different ice nucleation mechanisms, sensitivity to dust IN concentration, treatment of the WBF process on mixed-phase cloud properties. Aerosol effect on mixed-phase clouds through the liquid phase (droplet activation) and ice phase processes (e.g., the glaciation indirect effect) is investigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Real-World Distribution System Modeling Framework for Transmission-and-Distribution Cosimulation: Preprint

This paper presents a modeling methodology for realistic distribution system simulation and analysis. The methodology involves three major approaches: utility model conversion, feeder load modeling, and feeder model validation. The feeder models obtained from the utility are converted to the format that is more flexible for analysis and algorithm development. The load profiles down to each node are modeled in detail using advanced metering infrastructure data and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system measured load data. Then the distribution system models are validated by comparing the simulated feeder-head voltage results and SCADA measured voltage data. To better understand the bulk system operations and the interactions between transmission and distribution systems, the modeled realistic distribution systems are integrated into a transmission-and-distribution cosimulation framework to perform the system simulation from the bulk system down to each node in the distribution system.

load modeling↗