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At least 235 records · Page 13

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Comparison of INP Parameterizations for Dust Minerals in Climatological Simulations With a Global Model

The effect of aerosol particles on ice nucleation and, in turn, the formation of ice and mixed phase clouds is recognized as one of the largest sources of uncertainty in weather and climate prediction. We utilize an improved sectional dust module in NASA GISS Earth System ModelE2.1, which distinguishes eight different mineral species and accretions between iron oxides and the other minerals. Simulations over a period of 20 years have been carried out with this model, and the mineral fields and other model variables (temperature, relative humidity) are used to calculate the ice nucleating particle (INP) number concentration, applying time-independent and time-dependent INP parameterizations, such as active site parameterization and water activity based immersion freezing model (ABIFM). We study how the dependence of the parameterizations on different model variables affects the mean INP number concentration. The sensitivity of the INP number concentration to fundamental dust properties such as emitted mineral size distributions and mixing state between minerals is also investigated. Results show that the sensitivity of the total INP number concentration to the emitted dust size distribution is rather small, but the sensitivity over the whole size range obscures offsetting differences in the magnitude and the sign of the sensitivity between smaller and larger particles.

INP Parameterizations↗

DOE OSTI2022

Room-temperature skyrmion lattice in a layered magnet (Fe 0.5 Co 0.5 ) 5 GeTe 2

Novel magnetic ground states have been stabilized in two-dimensional (2D) magnets such as skyrmions, with the potential next-generation information technology. Here, we report the experimental observation of a Néel-type skyrmion lattice at room temperature in a single-phase, layered 2D magnet, specifically a 50% Co-doped Fe 5 GeTe 2 (FCGT) system. The thickness-dependent magnetic domain size follows Kittel's law. The static spin textures and spin dynamics in FCGT nanoflakes were studied by Lorentz electron microscopy, variable-temperature magnetic force microscopy, micromagnetic simulations, and magnetotransport measurements. Current-induced skyrmion lattice motion was observed at room temperature, with a threshold current density, j th = 1 × 10 6 A/cm 2 . This discovery of a skyrmion lattice at room temperature in a noncentrosymmetric material opens the way for layered device applications and provides an ideal platform for studies of topological and quantum effects in 2D.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the climate impact of an improved volcanic sulfate aerosol representation in E3SM

Accurately simulating historical surface temperature variations is essential for evaluating climate models, yet many struggle to reproduce the mid-20th-century temperature trends associated with significant volcanic eruptions. This study examines the impact of volcanic sulfate aerosol representation on these biases using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The standard CMIP6 protocol prescribes volcanic forcing through radiative perturbations, omitting volcanic aerosol–cloud interactions (VACIs). Here, we implement an emission-based approach with an updated volcanic eruption inventory that directly incorporates volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions, enabling a more process-based representation of volcanic forcing. This approach leads to improved surface temperature variability and a modest reduction in cold biases between 1940 and 1980 compared to the CMIP6 setup. Additionally, we assess cloud property responses to a more realistic volcanic sulfate aerosol representation, which weakens cloud-induced cooling during periods of lower volcanic activity. However, despite these refinements, a significant temperature cold bias remains, indicating that further improvements in atmospheric chemistry, aerosol microphysics, cloud processes, and model parameterizations are needed to fully resolve this issue in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Influences of Alkali Metal Cation Interactions on N2 Coordination to Iron(I) Beta-Diketiminate Complexes in Electrolyte Solutions

N2 functionalization reactions often use stable, isolable N2-bound complexes and low temperatures or highly activated reagents. However, little work has focused on systems where N2 binds weakly, and the N2 binding equilibrium can be modulated. Here, we describe analysis of surprising trends in alkali metal cation solvation on the formation of an anionic iron(I) beta-diketiminate complex and the subsequent N2 binding equilibrium. Variable temperature UV-vis spectroscopy shows that increased ionic strength in the coordinating solvent tetrahydrofuran promotes N2 coordination. Additionally, less solvated alkali metal cations in noncoordinating 2-methyltetrahydrofuran (MeTHF) stabilize N2 coordination, likely through the formation of contact ion pairs in solution that have enhanced N2 binding. Ionic strength has little effect on the energetics of N2 coordination to these proposed contact ion pairs in MeTHF. When the electrochemical analysis is done at –78 °C, there is an irreversible reduction of iron(II) and an anodically shifted oxidation, which is attributed to the formation of the spectroscopically observed N2 complex. Finally, bulk electrolysis is used to verify the electrochemical formation of the N2-bound anionic iron(I) complex. These studies demonstrate a new strategy for promoting N2 coordination by changing solution properties, which is relevant to homogeneous electrochemical N2 reduction methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2002

Thermostructural Analysis of Carbon Cloth Phenolic Material Tested at the Laser Hardened Material Evaluation Laboratory

RSRM nozzle liner components have been analyzed and tested to explore the occurrence of anomalous material performance known as pocketing erosion. Primary physical factors that contribute to pocketing seem to include the geometric permeability, which governs pore pressure magnitudes and hence load, and carbon fiber high temperature tensile strength, which defines a material limiting capability. The study reports on the results of a coupled thermostructural finite element analysis of Carbon Cloth Phenolic (CCP) material tested at the Laser Hardened Material Evaluation Laboratory (the LHMEL facility). Modeled test configurations will be limited to the special case of where temperature gradients are oriented perpendicular to the composite material ply angle. Analyses were conducted using a transient, one-dimensional flow/thermal finite element code that models pore pressure and temperature distributions and in an explicitly coupled formulation, passes this information to a 2-dimensional finite element structural model for determination of the stress/deformation behavior of the orthotropic fiber/matrix CCP. Pore pressures are generated by thermal decomposition of the phenolic resin which evolve as a multi-component gas phase which is partially trapped in the porous microstructure of the composite. The nature of resultant pressures are described by using the Darcy relationships which have been modified to permit a multi-specie mass and momentum balance including water vapor condensation. Solution to the conjugate flow/thermal equations were performed using the SINDA code. Of particular importance to this problem was the implementation of a char and deformation state dependent (geometric) permeability as describing a first order interaction between the flow/thermal and structural models. Material property models are used to characterize the solid phase mechanical stiffness and failure. Structural calculations were performed using the ABAQUS code. Iterations were made between the two codes involving the dependent variables temperature, pressure and across-ply strain level. Model results comparisons are made for three different surface heat rates and dependent variable sensitivities discussed for the various cases.

Clayton, J. Louie↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probing Conformational Evolution and Associated Dynamics of Mg(N(SO 2 CF 3 ) 2 ) 2 ·Dimethoxyethane Adduct Using Solid-State 19 F and 1 H NMR

Bis(trifluoromethanesulfonimide) or TFSI is widely used as a counter anion in electrolyte design due to its structural flexibility and chemical stability. Here we studied the conformational variations and associated dynamics of TFSI in adduct of Mg(TFSI) 2 with dimethoxyethane (DME), a solvate crystalline material using solid-state 1 H and 19 F NMR. TFSI molecular motion in this solvate structure falls within the timescale of the 19 F NMR experiment, yielding spectroscopic signatures for unique TFSI conformers under the coordination environment of Mg 2+ cation. Within the temperature range of -5 to 82 °C, we observe nine distinct TFSI sites in both crystalline and disordered regions using 19 F NMR, reflecting complexity of structural and dynamics of TFS1 anions within solvate structure. The four distinguishable sites in the disordered region for the two CF 3 groups of the same TFSI molecule are identified using chemical shift analysis. The exchange rate constants from site to site are calculated through variable temperature 19 F NMR and two-dimensional (2D) exchange spectroscopy (EXSY) experiments, along with respective activation enthalpies using Eyring's formulation. The flip rate of CF 3 around the S-C bond is estimated as ~ 15 s -1 at 8 °C with ΔH ≠ ~ 22 kJ/mol, but the rotation of the entire TFSI is 4.8 s -1 at 8 °C with a significantly greater ΔH ≠ = 98 ± 10 kJ/mol. Furthermore, the slow conversion of trans to cis conformers at a lower temperature (T ≤ 1 °C) in the crystalline region is monitored, with a conversion rate of ~ 2 x 10 -5 s -1 at -5 °C. Density functional theory (DFT)-based calculations were performed to support further the assignment of experimental chemical shifts, and the activation energy E a = 21.1 kJ/mol obtained for the cis to trans transition is consistent with experimental values. The combined set of 19 F and 1 H under both one-dimensional (1D) and 2D NMR methods demonstrated here can be further used for examining electrode-electrolyte interfaces to probe the motions of various constituents that can enable detailed studies of interfacial processes and dynamics. Ultimately, such studies will aid in the design and discovery of interfacial constructs in which directed defect chemistry, chemical moiety distribution, and nanostructure are employed to drive efficient charge transport.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spectroscopic Signatures of Phonon Character in Molecular Electron Spin Relaxation

Spin–lattice relaxation constitutes a key challenge for the development of quantum technologies, as it destroys superpositions in molecular quantum bits (qubits) and magnetic memory in single molecule magnets (SMMs). Gaining mechanistic insight into the spin relaxation process has proven challenging owing to a lack of spectroscopic observables and contradictions among theoretical models. Here, we use pulse electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) to profile changes in spin relaxation rates (T 1 ) as a function of both temperature and magnetic field orientation, forming a two-dimensional data matrix. For randomly oriented powder samples, spin relaxation anisotropy changes dramatically with temperature, delineating multiple regimes of relaxation processes for each Cu(II) molecule studied. We show that traditional T 1 fitting approaches cannot reliably extract this information. Single-crystal T 1 anisotropy experiments reveal a surprising change in spin relaxation symmetry between these two regimes. We interpret this switch through the concept of a spin relaxation tensor, enabling discrimination between delocalized lattice phonons and localized molecular vibrations in the two relaxation regimes. Variable-temperature T 1 anisotropy thus provides a unique spectroscopic method to interrogate the character of nuclear motions causing spin relaxation and the loss of quantum information.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1999

Dynamical and Chemical Behavior of the Lower Stratosphere and Interactions with the Troposphere

Equivalent-barotropic calculations, in tandem with Lagrangian analyses, reveal how changes of total ozone follow from vertical and horizontal transport by planetary waves. Those calculations also throw light on how diabatic motions comprising the Brewer-Dobson circulation develop from quasi-horizontal advection by planetary waves. Potential temperature along a material surface indicates organized subsidence inside the polar-night vortex, resembling tracer observations from UARS. Lagrangian histories illustrate that this sinking motion follows in large part from parcels being driven out of thermodynamic equilibrium by planetary waves, especially at high latitudes. Irreversible heat transfer then produces a net drift of air across isentropic surfaces as parcels orbit about the displaced vortex. By driving mean-meridional overturning in the stratosphere, this downward drift is ultimately responsible for transferring ozone from the tropics to the extratropical lower stratosphere. It also introduces horizontal structure into the distribution of total ozone, which surfaces clearly in ozone trends. High-resolution global cloud imagery constructed from 6 satellites simultaneously observing the Earth was used to investigate the spectrum of equatorial waves generated by tropical convection and propagating vertically into the stratosphere. The results indicate that temperature variability is dominated by planetary-scale equatorial waves like the Kelvin mode, which agrees with satellite observations of the tropical stratosphere. However, the Kelvin mode accounts for only about 30 - 50% of the eastward momentum flux radiating into the stratosphere, the remainder coming from gravity waves. An algorithm was developed to determine 3-dimensional atmospheric motion from satellite tracer measurements. Based on Lagrangian constraints, the algorithm circumvents limitations of the traditional scheme for inferring motion from temperature measurements and determines the circulation in the tropics as reliably as elsewhere. A study of deep convection revealed that the highest towers (those penetrating into stratospheric air and controlling tropopause height and composition through convective mixing) occur in close association with the diurnal cycle of convection. Clouds colder than 220 K develop almost entirely in association with the diurnal cycle of convection over tropical landmasses and substantially in association with it even over maritime regions.

Salby, Murry L.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

Many studies have been carried out during the last decade to study the effect of climate change on crop yields and other key crop characteristics. In these studies, one or several crop models were used to simulate crop growth and development for different climate scenarios that correspond to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and rainfall changes (Semenov et al., 1996; Tubiello and Ewert, 2002; White et al., 2011). The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013) builds on these studies with the goal of using an ensemble of multiple crop models in order to assess effects of climate change scenarios for several crops in contrasting environments. These studies generate large datasets, including thousands of simulated crop yield data. They include series of yield values obtained by combining several crop models with different climate scenarios that are defined by several climatic variables (temperature, CO2, rainfall, etc.). Such datasets potentially provide useful information on the possible effects of different climate change scenarios on crop yields. However, it is sometimes difficult to analyze these datasets and to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexity; simulated yield data can differ among contrasting climate scenarios, sites, and crop models. Another issue is that it is not straightforward to extrapolate the results obtained for the scenarios to alternative climate change scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Additional dynamic crop model simulations for new climate change scenarios are an option but this approach is costly, especially when a large number of crop models are used to generate the simulated data, as in AgMIP. Statistical models have been used to analyze responses of measured yield data to climate variables in past studies (Lobell et al., 2011), but the use of a statistical model to analyze yields simulated by complex process-based crop models is a rather new idea. We demonstrate herewith that statistical methods can play an important role in analyzing simulated yield data sets obtained from the ensembles of process-based crop models. Formal statistical analysis is helpful to estimate the effects of different climatic variables on yield, and to describe the between-model variability of these effects.

climate↗

DOE OSTI2023

Lattice instability and magnetic phase transitions in strongly correlated MnAs

Using variable temperature x-ray total scattering in magnetic field, we study the interaction between lattice and magnetic degrees of freedom in MnAs, which loses its ferromagnetic order and hexagonal ('H') lattice symmetry at 318 K to recover the latter and become a true paramagnet when the temperature is increased to 400 K. Our results show that the 318 K transition is accompanied by highly anisotropic displacements of Mn atoms that appear as a lattice degree of freedom bridging the 'H' and orthorhombic phases of MnAs. This is a rare example of a lowering of an average crystal symmetry due to an increased displacive disorder emerging on heating. Furthermore, our results also show that magnetic and lattice degrees of freedom appear coupled but not necessarily equivalent control variables for triggering phase transitions in strongly correlated systems in general and in particular in MnAs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2000

Long-term Global Morphology of Gravity Wave Activity Using UARS Data

This quarter was largely devoted to a detailed study of temperature data acquired by the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) on UARS. Our analysis used the same sequence of methods that have been developed, tested and refined on a more limited subset of temperature data acquired by the CRISTA instrument. We focused on a limited subset of our reasoning that geographical and vertical trends in the small-scale temperature variability could be compared with similar trends observed in November 1994 by the CRISTA-SPAS satellite. Results, backed up with hindcasts from the Mountain Wave Forecast Model (MWFM), reveal strong evidence of mountain waves, most persuasively in the Himalayas on 16-17 November, 1992. These CLAES results are coherent over the 30-50 km range and compare well with MWFM hindcasts for the same period. This constitutes, we believe, the first clear evidence that CLAES explicitly resolved long wavelength gravity waves in its CO2 temperature channel. A series of other tasks, related to mesoscale modeling of mountain waves in CRISTA data and fitting of ground-based and HRDI data on global scales, were seen through to publication stage in peer-reviewed journals.

Eckermann, Stephen D.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Temperature Dependence and Recoil-free Fraction Effects in Olivines Across the Mg-Fe Solid Solution

Olivine and pyroxene are the major ferromagnesian minerals in most meteorite types and in mafic igneous rocks that are dominant at the surface of the Earth. It is probable that they are the major mineralogical components at the surface of any planetary body that has undergone differentiation processes. In situ mineralogical studies of the rocks and soils on Mars suggest that olivine is a widespread mineral on that planet s surface (particularly at the Gusev site) and that it has been relatively unaffected by alteration. Thus an understanding of the characteristics of Mossbauer spectra of olivine is of great importance in interpreting MER results. However, variable temperature Mossbauer spectra of olivine, which are needed to quantify recoil-free fraction effects and to understand the temperature dependence of olivine spectra, are lacking in the literature. Thus, we present here a study of the temperature dependence and recoil-free fraction of a series of synthetic olivines.

Sklute, E. C.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Tree-ring cellulose δ(18)O records similar large-scale climate influences as precipitation δ(18)O in the Northwest Territories of Canada

Stable oxygen isotopes measured in tree rings are useful for reconstructing climate variability and explaining changes in physiological processes occurring in forests, complementing other tree-ring parameters such as ring width. Here, we analyzed the relationships between different climate parameters and annually resolved tree-ring δ(18)O records (δ(18)O(TR)) from white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench]Voss) trees located near Tungsten (Northwest Territories, Canada) and used the NASA GISS ModelE2 isotopically-equipped general circulation model (GCM) to better interpret the observed relationships. We found that the δ(18)O(TR) series were primarily related to temperature variations in spring and summer, likely through temperature effects on the precipitation δ(18)O in spring, and evaporative enrichment at leaf level in summer. The GCM simulations showed significant positive relationships between modelled precipitation δ(18)O over the study region and surface temperature and geopotential height over northwestern North America, but of stronger magnitudes during fall-winter than during spring–summer. The modelled precipitation δ(18)O was only significantly associated with moisture transport during the fall-winter season. The δ(18)O(TR) showed similar correlation patterns to modelled precipitation δ(18)O only during spring–summer when water matters more for trees, with significant positive correlations with surface temperature and geopotential height, but no correlations with moisture transport. Overall, the δ(18)O(TR) records for northwestern Canada reflect the same significant large-scale climate patterns as precipitation δ(18)O for spring–summer, and therefore have potential for reconstructing past atmospheric dynamics in addition to temperature variability in the region.

paleoclimate↗

DOE OSTI2020

Clathrate BaNi 2 P 4 : An Interplay of Heat and Charge Transport Due to Strong Host–Guest Interactions

Heat and charge transport properties of the metallic unconventional clathrate BaNi 2 P 4 , hosting Ba cations in oversized Ni 8 P 16 cages, are investigated. A novel method of single-crystal growth was developed, yielding 2–3 mm sized crystals of BaNi 2 P 4 . We also developed a setup to accurately measure thermal conductivity and electrical resistivity of the synthesized single crystals in a wide temperature range avoiding crystal remounting. BaNi 2 P 4 has a metallic temperature dependence of its electrical resistivity (decreasing with decreasing temperature) and manifests an unconventional T 2 power law for 50 K < T < 300 K; below 50 K, the power-law exponent increases gradually such that below 10 K the power law is T 5 , a predicted but extremely rarely experimentally observed dependence for peculiar electron–phonon interactions. Furthermore, electronic band structure calculations, consistent with measurements of de Haas–van Alphen oscillations, show large band dispersions with significant contributions of Ba orbitals to states near the Fermi level, which is atypical for clathrates. The thermal properties of BaNi 2 P 4 were probed using a combination of variable-temperature single-crystal X-ray diffraction experiments, heat capacity measurements, first-principles phonon dispersion calculations, and inelastic neutron scattering measurements. BaNi 2 P 4 exhibits significant hybridization of the Ba-guest and Ni–P-framework vibrational modes, which may be enhanced via the detected split of the Ba position, which results in strong Ba-framework interactions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Insensitivity of Magnetic Coupling to Ligand Substitution in a Series of Tetraoxolene Radical-Bridged Fe 2 Complexes

The elucidation of magnetostructural correlations between bridging ligand substitution and strength of magnetic coupling is essential to the development of high-temperature molecule-based magnetic materials. Toward this end, we report the series of tetraoxolene-bridged Fe II 2 complexes [(Me 3 TPyA) 2 Fe 2 ( R L)] n + (Me 3 TPyA = tris(6-methyl-2-pyridylmethyl)amine; n = 2: OMe LH 2 = 3,6-dimethoxy-2,5-dihydroxo-1,4-benzoquinone, Cl LH 2 = 3,6-dichloro-2,5-dihydroxo-1,4-benzoquinone, Na 2 [ NO 2 L] = sodium 3,6-dinitro-2,5-dihydroxo-1,4-benzoquinone; n = 4: SMe 2 L = 3,6-bis(dimethylsulfonium)-2,5-dihydroxo-1,4-benzoquinone diylide) and their one-electron-reduced analogues. Furthermore, variable-temperature dc magnetic susceptibility data reveal the presence of weak ferromagnetic superexchange between Fe II centers in the oxidized species, with exchange constants of J = +1.2(2) (R = OMe, Cl) and +0.3(1) (R = NO 2 , SMe 2 ) cm –1 . In contrast, X-ray diffraction, cyclic voltammetry, and Mössbauer spectroscopy establish a ligand-centered radical in the reduced complexes. Magnetic measurements for the radical-bridged species reveal the presence of strong antiferromagnetic metal–radical coupling, with J = -57(10), -60(7), -58(6), and -65(8) cm –1 for R = OMe, Cl, NO 2 , and SMe 2 , respectively. The minimal effects of substituents in the 3- and 6-positions of R L x –• on the magnetic coupling strength is understood through electronic structure calculations, which show negligible spin density on the substituents and associated C atoms of the ring. Finally, the radical-bridged complexes are single-molecule magnets, with relaxation barriers of U eff = 50(1), 41(1), 38(1), and 33(1) cm –1 for R = OMe, Cl, NO 2 , and SMe 2 , respectively. Taken together, these results provide the first examination of how bridging ligand substitution influences magnetic coupling in semiquinoid-bridged compounds, and they establish design criteria for the synthesis of semiquinoid-based molecules and materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Using machine learning to derive cloud condensation nuclei number concentrations from commonly available measurements

Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations are an important aspect of aerosol–cloud interactions and the subsequent climate effects; however, their measurements are very limited. We use a machine learning tool, random decision forests, to develop a random forest regression model (RFRM) to derive CCN at 0.4 % supersaturation ([CCN0.4]) from commonly available measurements. The RFRM is trained on the long-term simulations in a global size-resolved particle microphysics model. Using atmospheric state and composition variables as predictors, through associations of their variabilities, the RFRM is able to learn the underlying dependence of [CCN0.4] on these predictors, which are as follows: eight fractions of PM 2.5 (NH 4 , SO 4 , NO 3, secondary organic aerosol (SOA), black carbon (BC), primary organic carbon (POC), dust, and salt), seven gaseous species (NO x , NH 3 , O 3 , SO 2 , OH, isoprene, and monoterpene), and four meteorological variables (temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), precipitation, and solar radiation). The RFRM is highly robust: it has a median mean fractional bias (MFB) of 4.4 % with ≈96.33 % of the derived [CCN0.4] within a good agreement range of -60% 2.5 speciation (NH 4 , SO 4 , NO 3 , and organic carbon (OC)), NO x , O 3 , SO 2 , T, and RH, as well as [CCN0.4] are available. We modify, optimize, and retrain the developed RFRM to make predictions from 19 to 9 of these available predictors. This retrained RFRM (RFRM-ShortVars) shows a reduction in performance due to the unavailability and sparsity of measurements (predictors); it captures the [CCN0.4] variability and magnitude at SGP with ≈67.02 % of the derived values in the good agreement range. This work shows the potential of using the more commonly available measurements of PM 2.5 speciation to alleviate the sparsity of CCN number concentrations' measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Privacy Preserving Model-Free Optimization and Control Framework for Demand Response from Residential Thermal Loads

We consider the problem of optimizing the cost of procuring electricity for a large collection of homes managed by a load serving entity, by pre-cooling or pre-heating the thermal inertial loads in the homes to avoid procuring power during periods of peak electricity pricing. We would like to accomplish this objective in a completely privacy-preserving and model-free manner, that is, without direct access to the state variables (temperatures or power consumption) or the dynamical models (thermal characteristics) of individual homes, while guaranteeing personal comfort constraints of the consumers. We propose a two-stage optimization and control framework to address this problem. In the first stage, we use a long short-term memory (LSTM) network to predict hourly electricity prices, based on historical pricing data and weather forecasts. Given the hourly price forecast and thermal models of the homes, the problem of designing an optimal power consumption trajectory that minimizes the total electricity procurement cost for the collection of thermal loads can be formulated as a large-scale integer program (with millions of variables) due to the on-off cyclical dynamics of such loads. We provide a simple heuristic relaxation to make this large-scale optimization problem model-free and computationally tractable. In the second stage, we translate the results of this optimization problem into distributed open-loop control laws that can be implemented at individual homes without measuring or estimating their state variables, while simultaneously ensuring consumer comfort constraints. We demonstrate the performance of this approach on a large-scale test case comprising of 500 homes in the Houston area and benchmark its performance against a direct model-based optimization and control solution.

Sivaranjani, S.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Collaborative Research: Atlantic Ocean Tropical/Subtropical Processes from Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales: Model/Data, Model/Model Comparison and Model/Data Synthesis Through Assimilation

The effort of this first year of research has been focused on the assimilation of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetric data into a primitive equation model of the Atlantic tropical/subtropical circulation. A reduced-rank, stationary Kalman filter has been constructed to assimilate the altimetric sea surface height anomaly (SHA) into the model. The goal is to assess how the inter-hemispheric transports between the Atlantic subtropics and tropics are affected by the assimilation and how the subsurface thermocline structure , and its variability ,is dynamically constrained by the SHA. The model is a reduced-gravity primitive equation GCM of the upper Atlantic Ocean between 30 S and 30 N. The assimilation scheme is an approximation to the extended Kalman filter in which the error covariances of the state estimates are calculated only in a reduced- dimension subspace. The subspace is defined by the leading empirical orthogonal functions calculated from an unconstrained model calculation. Both an identical twin experiment using simulated SHA observations and assimilation of the real TOPEX data were performed. Results from the twin experiments demonstrate the ability of the method to constrain the ocean circulation and the subsurface temperature structure. The impact on the subsurface temperature structure of TOPEX assimilation was assessed using data from expandable bathythermographs. This showed a substantial improvement in the estimated temperature variability only within 13 degrees in latitude around the equator. The impact of TOPEX SHA assimilation on zonally integrated meridional transport across different latitudes was also estimated. Again within 13 degrees from the equator both the mean amplitude and interannual variability of the surface and subsurface transports were significantly enhanced, while the transports were insensitive to the assimilation in the subtropics.

Malannotte-Rizzoli, Paola↗