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NASA NTRS1996

Nonlinear dynamics of the magnetosphere and space weather

The solar wind-magnetosphere system exhibits coherence on the global scale and such behavior can arise from nonlinearity on the dynamics. The observational time series data were used together with phase space reconstruction techniques to analyze the magnetospheric dynamics. Analysis of the solar wind, auroral electrojet and Dst indices showed low dimensionality of the dynamics and accurate prediction can be made with an input/output model. The predictability of the magnetosphere in spite of the apparent complexity arises from its dynamical synchronism with the solar wind. The electrodynamic coupling between different regions of the magnetosphere yields its coherent, low dimensional behavior. The data from multiple satellites and ground stations can be used to develop a spatio-temporal model that identifies the coupling between different regions. These nonlinear dynamical models provide space weather forecasting capabilities.

Sharma, A. Surjalal↗

NASA NTRS2007

GEO Population Estimates using Optical Survey Data

Optical survey data taken using the NASA Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) gives us an opportunity to statistically sample faint object population in the Geosynchronous (GEO) and near-GEO environment. This paper will summarize the MODEST survey work that has been conducted by NASA since 2002, and will outline the techniques employed to arrive at the current population estimates in the GEO environment for dim objects difficult to detect and track using current systems in the Space Surveillance Network (SSN). Some types of orbits have a higher detection rate based on what parts of the GEO belt is being observed, a straightforward statistical technique is used to debias these observations to arrive at an estimate of the total population potentially visible to the telescope. The size and magnitude distributions of these fainter debris objects are markedly different from the catalogued population. GEO debris consists of at least two different populations, one which follows the standard breakup power law and one which has anomalously high Area-to-Mass Ratios (1 to approx. 30 square meters per kilogram; a sheet of paper = approx. 13 square meters per kilogram). The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) is investigating objects in GEO orbits with anomalously high Area-to-Mass Ratios (AMRs). The ESA Space Debris Telescope discovered this population and has and its properties of inclinations (0 to 30 degrees), changing eccentricities (0 and 0.6), and mean motions (approx. 1 rev), will be presented. The accepted interpretation of this orbital behavior is that solar radiation pressure drives the perturbations causing time varying inclinations and eccentricities. The orbital parameters are unstable for this population and thus difficult to predict. Their dim visual magnitudes and photometric variability make observations a challenge. The IADC has enlisted a series of observatories (participating institutions: University of Michigan/CTIO, Astronomical Institute University of Bern, Boeing LTS / AMOS, Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics) at different longitudes. Complete observational coverage over periods of days to months will provide a better understanding of the properties, such as solar radiation pressure effects on orbital elements, size, shape, attitude, color variations, and spectral characteristics. Results from recent observational programs will be summarized, and includes a description of the orbit elements prediction processes, a summary of the metric tracking performance, and some photometric characteristics of this class of debris.

Barker, Edwin S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterizing Spatiotemporal Uncertainty in Interpolated Meteorological Data

Interpolated meteorological data invariably contain errors. These errors have structure in time and space, particularly autocorrelation, which can cause the effects of errors to compound when model outputs are aggregated temporally or spatially. One way to account for this uncertainty is with a probabilistic model from which samples can be drawn that are coherent with respect to underlying spatial and temporal covariance structure. This work describes a probabilistic method for spatial interpolation of point-wise meteorological time series. Observational data from weather stations are generally sparse in space and dense in time (but sometimes missing). The method works by projecting time series onto orthogonal basis vectors and spatially interpolating each resulting component independently. Under suitable assumptions, and data transformations to better satisfy those assumptions, Gaussian process regression provides a complete description of the joint predictive distribution over a Gaussian random field. Spatiotemporally coherent realizations are generated as the sum of conditional (spatial) simulations of each orthogonal (temporal) component. Data-derived and generic orthogonal bases are considered. In addition to spatial interpolation, imputation of missing observational data is examined. The method is applied using near-surface air temperature over the Western United States and validated by comparing theoretical versus actual coverage of predictive distributions and analyzing the degree to which spatial and temporal covariance structure is reproduced. Computational considerations, relating to conditional simulation of random fields, are also addressed.

Conor T Doherty↗

NASA NTRS1986

Long-term changes in reflectivity and larger scale motions in the atmospheres of Jupiter and Saturn

A multi-color, broad-band photographic program for monitoring atmospheric variability of Jupiter and Saturn with the 61-cm, f/75 telescope was continued. The archivial product consists of approximately 20 sequential images on 3 1/4 x 4 1/4 glass plates with a plate scale of 4.53 arc sec/mm. An eleven-step sensitometric wedge, recorded times of acquisition, and fiducial marks which determine the orientation of the plate, are recorded on each individual plate. This allows accurate positional measurements, as well as detailed relative surface brightness determinations. Detailed measurements of the Red Spot are being utilized in a study of zonal velocity variation and the ability to predict the longitude of the Red Spot during the Galileo mission. An ongoing 5-color series of Saturn has been maintained to map the seasonal changes in the belt-zone reflectivity. Digitization of a series of blue images containing the Red Spot and a series of red and blue images excluding the Red Spot are being processed and reduced to normalized surface brightness maps. This data is being utilized to map time-dependent brightness variations of selected features, belts, and ones.

Beebe, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The potential impact of scatterometry on oceanography - A wave forecasting case

A series of observing system simulation experiments have been performed in order to assess the potential impact of marine surface wind data on numerical weather prediction. In addition to conventional data, the experiments simulated the time-continuous assimilation of remotely sensed marine surface wind or temperature sounding data. The wind data were fabricated directly for model grid points intercepted by a Seasat-1 scatterometer swath and were assimilated into the lowest active level (945 mb) of the model using a localized successive correction method. It is shown that Seasat wind data can greatly improve numerical weather forecasts due to better definition of specific features. The case of the QE II storm is examined.

Cane, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS2021

TLife-LSTM: Forecasting Future COVID-19 Progression with Topological Signatures of Atmospheric Conditions

Understanding the impact of atmospheric conditions on SARS-CoV2 is critical to model COVID-19 dynamics and sheds a light on the future spread around the world. Furthermore, geographic distri- butions of expected clinical severity of COVID-19 may be closely linked to prior history of respiratory diseases and changes in humidity, tem- perature, and air quality. In this context, we postulate that by tracking topological features of atmospheric conditions over time, we can provide a quanti?able structural distribution of atmospheric changes that are likely to be related to COVID-19 dynamics. As such, we apply the machinery of persistence homology on time series of graphs to extract topological signatures and to follow geographical changes in relative humidity and temperature. We develop an integrative machine learning framework named Topological Lifespan LSTM (TLife-LSTM) and test its predictive capabilities on forecasting the dynamics of SARS-CoV2 cases. We validate our framework using the number of con?rmed cases and hospitalization rates recorded in the states of Washington and California in the USA. Our results demonstrate the predictive potential of TLife-LSTM in forecasting the dynamics of COVID-19 and modeling its complex spatio-temporal spread dynamics.

Gel, Yulia R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Toward The Development of Hailstorm Climatologies Derived From Reanalyses and Infared/Passive Microwave Satellite Imagers

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Meteosat series, provide both historical and near-real-time observations of cloud top patterns that are commonly associated with severe convection. Environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are thought to be represented well by reanalyses. Predicting exactly where convection and costly storm hazards like hail will occur using models or satellite imagery alone, however, is extremely challenging. The multivariate combination of satellite-observed cloud patterns with reanalysis environmental parameters, linked to United States Next Generation Weather Radar- (NEXRAD-) estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) using a deep neural network (DNN), enables estimation of potentially severe hail likelihood for any observed storm cell. These estimates are specifically designed to make hail likelihood distinctions based on satellite-indicated points of deep convection within environments favorable for storm development. We seek an approach that can be used to estimate climatological hailstorm frequency and risk throughout the historical satellite data record. This presentation demonstrates that statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis show separation between non-severe/severe hailstorm classes for predictors including overshooting cloud top temperature and area characteristics, convective available potential energy, vertical wind shear, 500 hPa temperature, mid-level lapse rate, precipitable water, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN to produce a hail likelihood metric with a critical success index of 0.504 and Heidke skill score of 0.403, which is exceptional among recent analogous hail studies. Furthermore, applications of the DNN to select case studies demonstrate good qualitative agreement between hail likelihood and MESH. These hail classifications are aggregated across an 11-year GOES-12/13 image database to derive a hail frequency and severity climatology, which denotes the Central Plains, the Midwest, and northwestern Mexico as being the most hail-prone regions within the domain studied. Opportunities for training and applying DNN-based hailstorm predictions to recently developed GOES-8/10/12/13/16 and Meteosat Second Generation convective storm detection and characterization climatologies over South America and South Africa, respectively, will also be presented.

Kristopher Bedka↗

NASA NTRS2003

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS)

Prediction of climate relies on models, and better model prediction depends on good model physics. Improving model physics requires the maximal utilization of climate data of the past, present and future. CEOP provides the first example of a comprehensive, integrated global and regional data set, consisting of globally gridded data, reference site in-situ observations, model location time series (MOLTS), and integrated satellite data for a two-year period covering two complete annual cycles of 2003-2004. The monsoon regions are the most important socio-economically in terms of devastation by floods and droughts, and potential impacts from climate change md fluctuatinns nf the hydrologic cyc!e. Scientifically, it is most challenging, because of complex interactions of atmosphere, land and oceans, local vs. remote forcings in contributing to climate variability and change in the region. Given that many common features, and physical teleconnection exist among different monsoon regions, an international research focus on monsoon must be coordinated and sustained. Current models of the monsoon are grossly inadequate for regional predictions. For improvement, models must be confronted with relevant observations, and model physic developers must be made to be aware of the wealth of information from existing climate data, field measurements, and satellite data that can be used to improve models. Model transferability studles must be conducted. CIMS is a major initiative under CEOP to engage the modeling and the observational communities to join in a coordinated effort to study the monsoons. The objectives of CIMS are (a) To provide a better understanding of fundamental physical processes (diurnal cycle, annual cycle, and intraseasonal oscillations) in monsoon regions around the world and (b) To demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. In this talk, I will present the basic concepts of CIMS and the key scientific problems facing monsoon climates and provide examples of common monsoon features, and possible monsoon induced teleconnections linking different parts of the world.

Lau, William K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Fusion Approach for Remotely-Sensed Mapping of Agriculture (FARMA): A Scalable Open Source Method for Land Cover Monitoring Using Data Fusion

The increasing availability of very-high resolution (VHR; <2 m) imagery has the potential to enable agricultural monitoring at increased resolution and cadence, particularly when used in combination with widely available moderate-resolution imagery. However, scaling limitations exist at the regional level due to big data volumes and processing constraints. Here, we demonstrate the Fusion Approach for Remotely-Sensed Mapping of Agriculture (FARMA), using a suite of open source software capable of efficiently characterizing time-series field-scale statistics across large geographical areas at VHR resolution. We provide distinct implementation examples in Vietnam and Senegal to demonstrate the approach using WorldView VHR optical, Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar, and Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3 optical imagery. This distributed software is open source and entirely scalable, enabling large area mapping even with modest computing power. FARMA provides the ability to extract and monitor sub-hectare fields with multisensor raster signals, which previously could only be achieved at scale with large computational resources. Implementing FARMA could enhance predictive yield models by delineating boundaries and tracking productivity of smallholder fields, enabling more precise food security observations in low and lower-middle income countries.

fusion↗

NASA NTRS1979

An introduction to a unified approach to flexible rotor balancing

Two types of technique for flexible-rotor balancing are examined: the influence coefficient method, and the modal balancing method. Briefly, the influence coefficient method seeks those correction masses in a predetermined set of planes which will minimize measured vibration (readings) at a series of sensors and speeds, as predicted by influence coefficients relating vibration readings to mass additions; the influence coefficients are normally determined by a series of trial mass tests. The modal balancing method seeks to balance the rotor, one mode at a time, with a set of masses specifically selected not to disturb previously balanced lower modes, the sensitivity to this combination of masses is determined empirically by a series of trial mass tests. The two approaches are compared in supercritical-shaft balancing tests, and some common features are stressed for ultimate incorporation into a unified approach toward flexible-rotor balancing.

Parkinson, A. G.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Estimation of trends

The application of statistical methods to recorded ozone measurements. The effects of a long term depletion of ozone at magnitudes predicted by the NAS is harmful to most forms of life. Empirical prewhitening filters the derivation of which is independent of the underlying physical mechanisms were analyzed. Statistical analysis performs a checks and balances effort. Time series filters variations into systematic and random parts, errors are uncorrelated, and significant phase lag dependencies are identified. The use of time series modeling to enhance the capability of detecting trends is discussed.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2022

Measurement of Surface Deformation Related to the December 2018 Mt. Etna Eruption Using Time-Series Interferometry and Magma Modeling for Hazard Zone Mapping

Mount Etna has erupted several times since it was first formed. Recently, Mount Etna began erupting again over 24–27 December 2018. Because it erupts frequently, Mount Etna should be observed on a frequent basis. From June 2018 to October 2019, 34 and 56 interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images were acquired from the ascending and descending tracks of the Sentinel-1 satellite, respectively. We employed the Stanford Method for Persistent Scatterers (StaMPS) and a refined small baseline subset (SBAS) InSAR method to produce a surface deformation time-series map. In the time-series analysis, the phase signal remained unaltered with time. The Okada model was then applied to the result to generate a modeled interferogram, and the Q-LavHA program was run to generate a lava flow prediction model. A direct comparison of the results showed that Persistent Scatterers Interferometry (PSI)-StaMPS and the refined SBAS technique were comparable in terms of the displacement pattern, with slightly different velocity values obtained for individual points. In particular, a velocity range of −25 to 21 cm/yr was obtained from PSI-StaMPS, whereas a range of −30 to 25 cm/yr was obtained from the refined SBAS method. Upon computation of the vertical and east-west displacement components based on ascending and descending track data using both methods, deformation velocities of 51.5 and 52.5 cm/yr in the westerly direction on the western flank of Mount Etna were obtained from PSI-StaMPS and the refined SBAS method, respectively, whereas on the eastern flank, deformation toward the east was estimated to occur at a velocity of 50.1 or 54.2 cm/yr, respectively. PSIStaMPS estimated a vertical deformation velocity of −5.3 to 18.3 cm/yr, whereas the refined SBAS method produced a velocity range of approximately −7 to 19 cm/yr. The interferogram obtained via Okada modeling showed two fault sources in the 2018 Mount Etna eruption and a total volume change of approximately 12.39 × 10 6 m 3 . From the modeling results, a lava flow prediction model was generated using the Q-LavHA program. The approaches described in this study can be used by government officials, authorities, and other decision-makers to monitor and assess the risk of volcanic activity in the region.

Suci Ramayanti↗

NASA NTRS1988

High temperature fatigue behavior of Haynes 188

The high temperature, creep-fatigue behavior of Haynes 188 was investigated as an element in a broader thermomechanical fatigue life prediction model development program at the NASA-Lewis. The models are still in the development stage, but the data that were generated possess intrinsic value on their own. Results generated to date is reported. Data were generated to characterize isothermal low cycle fatigue resistance at temperatures of 316, 704, and 927 C with cyclic failure lives ranging from 10 to more than 20,000. These results follow trends that would be predicted from a knowledge of tensile properties, i.e., as the tensile ductility varies with temperature, so varies the cyclic inelastic straining capacity. Likewise, as the tensile strength decreases, so does the high cyclic fatigue resistance. A few two-minute hold-time cycles at peak compressive strain were included in tests at 760 C. These results were obtained in support of a redesign effort for the Orbital Maneuverable System engine. No detrimental effects on cyclic life were noted despite the added exposure time for creep and oxidation. Finally, a series of simulated thermal fatigue tests, referred to as bithermal fatigue tests, were conducted using 316 C as the minimum and 760 C as the maximum temperature. Only out-of-phase bithermal tests were conducted to date. These test results are intended for use as input to a more general thermomechanical fatigue life prediction model based on the concepts of the total strain version of Strainrange Partitioning.

Halford, Gary R.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Trend Detection of Atmospheric Time Series: Incorporating Appropriate Uncertainty Estimates and Handling Extreme Events

This paper is aimed at atmospheric scientists without formal training in statistical theory. Its goal is to, 1) provide a critical review of the rationale for trend analysis of the time series typically encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry; 2) describe a range of trend-detection methods; and 3) demonstrate effective means of conveying the results to a general audience. Trend detections in atmospheric chemical composition data are often challenged by a variety of sources of uncertainty, which often behave differently to other environmental phenomena such as temperature, precipitation rate, or stream flow, and may require specific methods depending on the science questions to be addressed. Some sources of uncertainty can be explicitly included in the model specification, such as autocorrelation and seasonality, but some inherent uncertainties are difficult to quantify, such as data heterogeneity and measurement uncertainty due to the combined effect of short- and long-term natural variability, instrumental stability, and aggregation of data from sparse sampling frequency. Failure to account for these uncertainties might result in an inappropriate inference of the trends and their estimation errors. On the other hand, the variation in extreme events might be interesting for different scientific questions, for example, the frequency of extremely high surface ozone events and their relevance to human health. In this study we aim to, 1) review trend detection methods for addressing different levels of data complexity in different chemical species; 2) demonstrate that the incorporation of scientifically interpretable covariates can outperform pure numerical curve fitting techniques in terms of uncertainty reduction and improved predictability; 3) illustrate the study of trends based on extreme quantiles that can provide insight beyond standard mean or median based trend estimates; and 4) present an advanced method of quantifying regional trends based on the inter-site correlations of multi-site data. All demonstrations are based on time series of observed trace gases relevant to atmospheric chemistry, but the methods can be applied to other environmental data sets.

Trace gas↗

NASA NTRS1974

Shuttle environmental and thermal control/life support system computer program

Computer programs developed to simulate the RSECS (representative shuttle environmental control system) are described. These programs were prepared to provide pretest predictions, post-test analysis and real-time problem analysis for RSECS test planning and evaluation. These programs are on a magnetic tape cassette and on a disc device that is part of the WANG-2200 series computer system.

Elfers, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Modeling to predict pilot performance during CDTI-based in-trail following experiments

A mathematical model was developed of the flight system with the pilot using a cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) to establish and maintain in-trail spacing behind a lead aircraft during approach. Both in-trail and vertical dynamics were included. The nominal spacing was based on one of three criteria (Constant Time Predictor; Constant Time Delay; or Acceleration Cue). This model was used to simulate digitally the dynamics of a string of multiple following aircraft, including response to initial position errors. The simulation was used to predict the outcome of a series of in-trail following experiments, including pilot performance in maintaining correct longitudinal spacing and vertical position. The experiments were run in the NASA Ames Research Center multi-cab cockpit simulator facility. The experimental results were then used to evaluate the model and its prediction accuracy. Model parameters were adjusted, so that modeled performance matched experimental results. Lessons learned in this modeling and prediction study are summarized.

Sorensen, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Application of neural networks to prediction of advanced composite structures mechanical response and behavior

Two types of neural networks were used to evaluate acousto-ultrasonic (AU) data for material characterization and mechanical reponse prediction. The neural networks included a simple feedforward network (backpropagation) and a radial basis functions network. Comparisons of results in terms of accuracy and training time are given. Acousto-ultrasonic (AU) measurements were performed on a series of tensile specimens composed of eight laminated layers of continuous, SiC fiber reinforced Ti-15-3 matrix. The frequency spectrum was dominated by frequencies of longitudinal wave resonance through the thickness of the specimen at the sending transducer. The magnitude of the frequency spectrum of the AU signal was used for calculating a stress-wave factor based on integrating the spectral distribution function and used for comparison with neural networks results.

Cios, K. J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Reduction of Wake-Stator Interaction Noise Using Passive Porosity

The present study was conducted to assess the potential of Passive Porosity Technology as a mechanism to reduce interaction noise in turbomachinery by reducing the fluctuating forces acting on the vane surfaces. To do so, a typical fan stator airfoil was subjected to the effects of a transversely moving wake; time histories of the primitive aerodynamic variables, obtained from Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solutions, were then input into an acoustic prediction code. This procedure was performed on the solid airfoil to obtain a baseline, and on a series of porous configurations in order to isolate those that yield maximum noise reductions without compromising the aerodynamic performance of the stator. It was found that communication between regions of high pressure differential - made possible by the use of passive porosity - is necessary to significantly alter the noise radiation pattern of the stator airfoil. In general, noise reductions were obtained for those configurations incorporating passive porosity in the region between x/c is approximately 0.15 on the suction side of the airfoil and x/c is approximately 0.20 on the pressure side. Reductions in overall radiated noise of approximately 1.0 dB were obtained. The noise benefit increased to about 2.5 dB when the effects of loading noise alone were considered.

Tinetti, Ana F.↗