Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Toroid”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13

Solar Imaging UV/EUV Spectrometers Using TVLS Gratings

It is a particular challenge to develop a stigmatic spectrograph for UV, EUV wavelengths since the very low normal-incidence reflectance of standard materials most often requires that the design be restricted to a single optical element which must simultaneously provide both reimaging and spectral dispersion. This problem has been solved in the past by the use of toroidal gratings with uniform line-spaced rulings (TULS). A number of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectrometers have been based on such designs, including SOHO/CDS, Solar-B/EIS, and the sounding rockets Solar Extreme ultraviolet Research Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS) and Extreme Ultraviolet Normal Incidence Spectrograph (EUNIS). More recently, Kita, Harada, and collaborators have developed the theory of spherical gratings with varied line-space rulings (SVLS) operated at unity magnification, which have been flown on several astronomical satellite missions. We now combine these ideas into a spectrometer concept that puts varied-line space rulings onto toroidal gratings. Such TVLS designs are found to provide excellent imaging even at very large spectrograph magnifications and beam-speeds, permitting extremely high-quality performance in remarkably compact instrument packages. Optical characteristics of three new solar spectrometers based on this concept are described: SUMI and RAISE, two sounding rocket payloads, and NEXUS, currently being proposed as a Small-Explorer (SMEX) mission.

Thomas, Roger J.↗

How Large Scale Flows in the Solar Convection Zone may Influence Solar Activity

Large scale flows within the solar convection zone are the primary drivers of the Sun s magnetic activity cycle. Differential rotation can amplify the magnetic field and convert poloidal fields into toroidal fields. Poleward meridional flow near the surface can carry magnetic flux that reverses the magnetic poles and can convert toroidal fields into poloidal fields. The deeper, equatorward meridional flow can carry magnetic flux toward the equator where it can reconnect with oppositely directed fields in the other hemisphere. These axisymmetric flows are themselves driven by large scale convective motions. The effects of the Sun s rotation on convection produce velocity correlations that can maintain the differential rotation and meridional circulation. These convective motions can influence solar activity themselves by shaping the large-scale magnetic field pattern. While considerable theoretical advances have been made toward understanding these large scale flows, outstanding problems in matching theory to observations still remain.

Hathaway, D. H.↗

How Large Scales Flows May Influence Solar Activity

Large scale flows within the solar convection zone are the primary drivers of the Sun's magnetic activity cycle and play important roles in shaping the Sun's magnetic field. Differential rotation amplifies the magnetic field through its shearing action and converts poloidal field into toroidal field. Poleward meridional flow near the surface carries magnetic flux that reverses the magnetic poles at about the time of solar maximum. The deeper, equatorward meridional flow can carry magnetic flux back toward the lower latitudes where it erupts through the surface to form tilted active regions that convert toroidal fields into oppositely directed poloidal fields. These axisymmetric flows are themselves driven by large scale convective motions. The effects of the Sun's rotation on convection produce velocity correlations that can maintain both the differential rotation and the meridional circulation. These convective motions can also influence solar activity directly by shaping the magnetic field pattern. While considerable theoretical advances have been made toward understanding these large scale flows, outstanding problems in matching theory to observations still remain.

Hathaway, D. H.↗

DSMC Simulations of Ballute Aerothermodynamics Under Hypersonic Rarefied Conditions

This paper presents computational results obtained with the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method for towed ballute applications. A ballute is an inflatable drag device that can be used to create a large amount of drag at high altitudes. Consequently, ballutes provide a potential technology for achieving aerocapture when the primary spacecraft velocity reduction (ΔV) is achieved at much higher altitudes than with the conventional rigid aeroshell. Since the ΔV is achieved at relatively high altitudes, rarefaction can be significant and is the motivation for the current study with the DSMC method. Computed surface and flow-field results are presented for a toroidal ballute, isolated tethers when exposed to free-stream flow conditions, and the flow interactions resulting from a toroidal ballute when towed by a six meter diameter Mars Pathfinder shaped (without tethers) spacecraft. All results presented are for Earth entry at velocities of 14 to 7 km/s (primary focus is at 8.55 km/s, same as some previous Titan aerocapture studies) and altitudes of 200 to 100 km. Variations of drag and heating coefficients as a function of rarefaction are presented. A description of the flow structure is provided and also an explanation of how it is affected by shock interactions produced solely by the ballute and those resulting from the two body combination of towed ballute and spacecraft is also given.

James N Moss↗

Design Considerations for High Temperature Power Inductors

A uniform B-field approximation model is used to develop design formulas for single-layer wound, toroidal core, ac power inductors that must handle a specified current. Such a geometry is well suited for high temperature, high frequency inductors, where removal of heat from the core becomes critical. Explicit expressions are derived for core radii, core and winding volumes, winding turns and core permeability as functions of a dimensional scaling ratio (S). A limit on the maximum allowed core B-field leads to the result that the minimum core volume is proportional to the permeability, which has a lower bound. Plots versus S are provided for a specific case, to show that good designs can be picked in the overlap regions around the minima in mass and overall size, where the mass and size are relatively flat. Data to 250 C are presented for an MPP core based inductor to show that a quasi-linear, high temperature inductor can be constructed with available materials. A similar development is applied to a toroidal air-core geometry, showing that for the same ratings, such an inductor is considerably bigger and more massive, at least in the single-layer version.

Niedra, Janis M.↗

Progress on the Plasmoid Thruster Experiment (PTX)

A plasmoid, also called a compact toroid, is a compact plasma structure with an integral magnetic field, that may be categorized according to the relative strength of the poloidal and toroidal magnetic field (Bp and Bt, respectively). An object with Bp/Bt much greater than 1 is called a Field Reverse Configuration (FRC); if Bp = Bt, it is called a Spheromak. The plasmoid thruster is a pulsed inductive device which operates by repetitively producing plasmoids that are accelerated and ejected at high velocity. As the process is inductive, this thruster avoids the problem of electrode erosion. Also, the magnetic structure of the plasmoid should suppress thermal and mass losses to the wall, and improve detachment of the plasma exhaust from the thruster. This concept should be capable of producing an Isp of 5,000 seconds and greater, with thrust densities of order 10(exp 5) N/sq m. The plasmoid thruster consists chiefly of a conical theta-pinch coil. Propellant is introduced onto a bias magnetic field, produced by an auxiliary coil, and is then pre-ionized, freezing in the magnetic field. The theta-pinch coil is then energized producing a field aligned anti- parallel to the bias field. The reversed field reconnects with the bias field to form the plasmoid. The magnetic pressure of the reversed field accelerates the plasmoid out of the thruster . A series of experiments have been conducted on the PTX device, which consisted of a single turn conical theta-pinch coil, driven by a 560 nF, 35 kV capacitor bank, which rang at a frequency of 500 kHz, and served all three functions required for formation: pre-ionization, bias field loading, and field reversal. Initial ionization was found to occur in an annular region at the exit plane of the coil, and was found to be reproducible with a variety of gases, including H2, D2, Ar, and an H2/N2 mixture (75% / 25%). A fast gas valve for injecting propellant has been tested, as well as a ringing pre-ionization circuit (operating at 5 Mhz) to better control the plasmoid formation. Velocities as high as 20 km/s have been measured for a plasmoid propagating into a static back-fill of neutral gas. Magnetic field and density measurements indicate that the plasmoid retains its structure well into the down-stream exhaust region, and that it is capable of pushing a dense cloud of neutral gas in front of it. Further experiments will focus on the effects of coil geometry and bias-field strength on the performance of the device. A high-power solid-state switching system is being developed in order to replace the spark-gap switch.

Martin, Adam↗

A Magnetohydrodynamic Boost for Relativistic Jets

We have performed relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the hydrodynamic boosting mechanism for relativistic jets explored by Aloy & Rezzolla (2006) using the RAISHIN code. Simulation results show that the presence of a magnetic field may change the properties of the shock interface between the tenuous, overpressured jet (V(sub j) (sup z)) flowing tangentially to a dense external medium. Magnetic fields can lead to more efficient acceleration of the jet, in comparison to the pure-hydrodynamic case. A poloidal magnetic field (B(sup z)), tangent to the interface and parallel to the jet flow, produces both a stronger outward moving shock and inward moving rarefaction wave. This leads to a large velocity component normal to the interface in addition to acceleration tangent to the interface, and the jet is thus accelerated to a larger Lorentz factors than those obtained in the pure-hydrodynamic case. In contrast, a strong toroidal magnetic field (B(sup y)), tangent to the interface but perpendicular to the jet flow, also leads to stronger acceleration tangent to the shock interface relative to the pure-hydrodynamic case, but to a lesser extent than found for the poloidal case due to the fact that the velocity component normal to the shock interface is now much smaller. Overall, the acceleration efficiency in the toroidal case is less than that of the poloidal case but both geometries still result in higher Lorentz factors than the pure-hydrodynamic case. Thus, the presence and relative orientation of a magnetic field in relativistic jets can have a significant influence on the hydrodynamic boost mechanism studied by Aloy & Rezzolla (2006).

Mizuno, Yosuke↗

A Starfish Preplanetary Nebula: IRAS 19024+0044

Using the Hubble Space Telescope, we have imaged the OH/IR star IRAS 19024+0044 (I19024) at 0.6, 0.8, 1.1, and 1.6 micrometers, as part of our surveys of candidate preplanetary nebulae. The images show a multipolar nebula of size approximately equal to 3.'7 2.'3, with at least six elongated lobes emanating from the center of the nebula. Two of the lobes show limb-brightened tips having point-symmetric structure with respect to the expected location of the central star. The central region shows two dark bands southwest and northeast of a central shallow maximum that may be either two inclined dusty toroidal structures or the dense parts of a single wide, inhomogeneous, toroid. Avery faint, surface brightness-limited, diffuse halo surrounds the lobes. Long-slit/echelle optical spectroscopy obtained at the Mount Palomar and Keck observatories shows a spatially compact source of H(alpha) emission; the H(alpha) line shows a strong, narrow, central core with very broad (+/-1000 km/sec), weak wings, and a narrower blueshifted absorption feature signifying the presence of an approximately 100 km/sec(exp -1) outflow. The spectrum is characterized by a strong, relatively featureless, continuum and lacks the strong forbidden emission lines characteristic of planetary nebulae, confirming that IRAS 19024 is a preplanetary nebula; the spectral type for the central star, although uncertain, is most likely early G. Interferometric observations of the CO J = 1 -0 line emission with the Owens Valley Radio Interferometer show a marginally resolved molecular envelope (size 5.'5 x 4.'4) with an expansion velocity of 13 km/sec (exp -1), resulting from the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) progenitor's dense, slow wind. We derive a kinematic distance of 3.5 kpc to I19024, based on its radial velocity. The bolometric flux is 7:3 x 10(exp -9) erg s(exp -1) cm(exp -2), and the luminosity 2850 L. The relatively low luminosity of I19024, in comparison with stellar evolutionary models, indicates that the initial mass of its central star was approximately 1-1.5 solar mass. The lobes, which appear to be hollow structures with dense walls, have a total mass greater than or equal to about 0.02 solar mass. The lobes, which appear to be hollow structures with dense walls, have a total mass greater than or equal to about 0.02 solar mass. The dusty tori in the center have masses of a few times 10(exp -3) solar mass. The faint halo has a power-law radial surface brightness profile with an exponent of about -3 and most likely represents the remnant spherical circumstellar envelope formed as a result of constant mass loss during the AGB expansion age of less than or approximately equal to 2870 yr, giving a mass-loss rate of greater than or approximately equal to 10(exp -5) solar mass yr (exp -1), The far-infrared fluxes of I19024 indicate the presence of a large mass of cool dust in the nebula, from a simple model we infer the presence of 'cool' (109 K) and 'warm' (280 K) components of dust mass 5.7 x 10(exp -4) and 1.5 x 10(exp -7) solar mass. We discuss our results for I19024 in the light of past and current ideas for the dramatic transformation of the morphology and kinematics of mass-ejecta as AGB stars evolve into planetary nebulae.

circumstellar matter↗

The Invariant Twist of Magnetic Fields in the Relativistic Jets of Active Galactic Nuclei

The origin of cosmic magnetic (B) fields remains an open question. It is generally believed that very weak primordial B fields are amplified by dynamo processes, but it appears unlikely that the amplification proceeds fast enough to account for the fields presently observed in galaxies and galaxy clusters. In an alternative scenario, cosmic B fields are generated near the inner edges of accretion disks in Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) by azimuthal electric currents due to the difference between the plasma electron and ion velocities that arises when the electrons are retarded by interactions with photons. While dynamo processes show no preference for the polarity of the (presumably random) seed field that they amplify, this alternative mechanism uniquely relates the polarity of the poloidal B field to the angular velocity of the accretion disk, resulting in a unique direction for the toroidal B field induced by disk rotation. Observations of the toroidal fields of 29 AGN jets revealed by parsec-scale Faraday rotation measurements show a clear asymmetry that is consistent with this model, with the probability that this asymmetry came about by chance being less than 1 %. This lends support to the hypothesis that the Universe is seeded by B fields that are generated in AGN via this mechanism

Contopoulos, Ioannis↗

Poynting Robertson Battery and the Chiral Magnetic Fields of AGN Jets

We propose that the magnetic fields in the accretion disks of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) are generated by azimuthal electric currents due to the difference between the plasma electron and ion velocities that arises when the electrons are retarded by interactions with the AGN photons (the Poynting Robertson battery). This process provides a unique relation between the polarity of the poloidal B field to the angular velocity Omega of the accretion disk (B is parallel to Omega), a relation absent in the more popular dynamo B-field generation. This then leads to a unique direction for the toroidal B field induced by disk rotation. Observations of the toroidal fields of 29 AGN jets revealed by parsec-scale Faraday rotation measurements show a clear asymmetry that is consistent with this model, with the probability that this asymmetry comes about by chance being approx.0.06 %. This lends support to the hypothesis that the universe is seeded by B fields that are generated in AGNs via this mechanism and subsequently injected into intergalactic space by the jet outflows.

Kazanas, Demosthenes↗

Induced Anisotropy in FeCo-Based Nanocrystalline Ferromagnetic Alloys (HITPERM) by Very High Field Annealing

Very high magnetic field annealing is shown to affect the magnetic anisotropy in FeCo-base nanocrystalline soft ferromagnetic alloys. Alloys of composition Fe(44.5)Co(44.5)Zr(7)B(4) were prepared by melt spinning into amorphous ribbons, then wound to form toroidal bobbin cores. One set of cores was crystallized in a zero field at 600 deg. C for 1 h, then, field annealed at 17 tesla (T) at 480 deg. C for 1 h. Another set was crystallized in a 17-T field at 480 deg. C for 1 h. Field orientation was transverse to the magnetic path of the toroidal cores. An induced anisotropy is indicated by a sheared hysteresis loop. Sensitive torque magnetometry measurements with a Si cantilever sensor indicated a strong, uniaxial, longitudinal easy axis in the zero-field-crystallized sample. The source is most likely magnetoelastic anisotropy, caused by the residual stress from nanocrystallization and the nonzero magnetostriction coefficient for this material. The magnetostrictive coefficient lambda(5) is measured to be 36 ppm by a strain gage technique. Field annealing reduces the magnitude of the induced anisotropy. Core loss measurements were made in the zero-field-crystallized, zero-field-crystallized- than-field-annealed, and field-crystallized states. Core loss is reduced 30%-50% (depending on frequency) by field annealing. X-ray diffraction reveals no evidence of crystalline texture or orientation that would cause the induced anisotropy. Diffusional pair ordering is thought to be the cause of the induced anisotropy. However, reannealing the samples in the absence of a magnetic field at 480 deg. C does not completely remove the induced anisotropy.

FERROMAGNETIC ALLOYS↗

Tunable Filter Made From Three Coupled WGM Resonators

A tunable third-order band-pass optical filter has been constructed as an assembly of three coupled, tunable, whispering-gallery-mode resonators similar to the one described in Whispering-Gallery-Mode Tunable Narrow-Band-Pass Filter (NPO-30896), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 28, No. 4 (April 2004), page 5a. This filter offers a combination of four characteristics that are desirable for potential applications in photonics: (1) wide real-time tunability accompanied by a high-order filter function, (2) narrowness of the passband, (3) relatively low loss between input and output coupling optical fibers, and (4) a sparse spectrum. In contrast, prior tunable band-pass optical filters have exhibited, at most, two of these four characteristics. As described in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles, a whispering-gallery-mode (WGM) resonator is a spheroidal, disklike, or toroidal body made of a highly transparent material. It is so named because it is designed to exploit whispering-gallery electromagnetic modes, which are waveguide modes that propagate circumferentially and are concentrated in a narrow toroidal region centered on the equatorial plane and located near the outermost edge. Figure 1 depicts the optical layout of the present filter comprising an assembly of three coupled, tunable WGM resonators. Each WGM resonator is made from a disk of Z-cut LiNbO3 of 3.3-mm diameter and 50-m thickness. The perimeter of the disk is polished and rounded to a radius of curvature of 40 microns. The free spectral range of each WGM resonator is about 13.3 GHz. Gold coats on the flat faces of the disk serve as electrodes for exploiting the electro-optical effect in LiNbO3 for tuning. There is no metal coat on the rounded perimeter region, where the whispering-gallery modes propagate. Light is coupled from an input optical fiber into the whispering-gallery-modes of the first WGM resonator by means of a diamond prism. Another diamond prism is used to couple light from the whispering-gallery-modes of the third WGM resonator to an output optical fiber. The filter operates at a nominal wavelength of 1,550 nm and can be tuned over a frequency range of plus or minus 12 GHz by applying a potential in the range of plus or minus 150 V to the electrodes. The insertion loss (the loss between the input and output coupling optical fibers) was found to be repeatable at 6 dB. The resonance quality factor (Q) of the main sequence of resonator modes was found to be 5 x 10(exp 6), which corresponds to a bandwidth of 30 MHz. The filter can be shifted from one operating frequency to another within a tuning time less than or equal to 30 micro seconds. The transmission curve of the filter at frequencies near the middle of the passband closely approximates a theoretical third-order Butterworth filter profile, as shown in Figure 2.

Savchenkov, Anatoliy↗

Whispering-Gallery-Mode Tunable Narrow-Band-Pass Filter

An experimental tunable, narrow-band-pass electro-optical filter is based on a whispering-gallery resonator. This device is a prototype of tunable filters needed for the further development of reconfigurable networking wavelength-division multiplexers and communication systems that utilize radio-frequency (more specifically, microwave) subcarrier signals on optical carrier signals. The characteristics of whispering-gallery resonators that make them attractive for such applications include high tuning speed, compactness, wide tuning range, low power consumption, and compatibility with single-mode optical fibers. In addition, relative to Fabry-Perot resonators, these devices offer advantages of greater robustness and lower cost. As described in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles, a whispering-gallery resonator is a spheroidal, disk-like, or toroidal body made of a highly transparent material. It is so named because it is designed to exploit whispering-gallery electromagnetic modes, which are waveguide modes that propagate circumferentially and are concentrated in a narrow toroidal region centered on the equatorial plane and located near the outermost edge. The experimental whispering-gallery tunable filter (see figure) is made from a disk of Z-cut LiNbO3 of 4.8-mm diameter and 0.17-mm thickness. The perimeter of the disk is rounded to a radius of curvature of 100 m. Metal coats on the flat faces of the disk serve as electrodes for exploiting the electro-optical effect in LiNbO3 for tuning. There is no metal coat on the rounded perimeter region, where the whispering-gallery modes propagate. Light is coupled from an input optical fiber into the whispering-gallery modes by means of a diamond prism. Another diamond prism is used to couple light from the whispering-gallery modes to an output optical fiber. This device is designed and operated to exploit transverse magnetic (TM) whispering- gallery modes, rather than transverse electric (TE) modes because the resonance quality factors (Q values) of the TM modes are higher. If Q values were not of major concern, it would be better to use the TE modes because the electro-optical shifts of the TE modes are 3 times those of the TM modes.

Savchenkov, Anatoliy↗

Possible Evidence for Free Precession of a Strongly Magnetized Neutron Star in the Magnetar 4U 0142+61

Magnetars are a special type of neutron stars, considered to have extreme dipole magnetic fields reaching approximately 10(exp 11) T. The magnetar 4U 0142þ61, one of the prototypes of this class, was studied in broadband x rays (0.5-70 keV) with the Suzaku observatory. In hard x rays (15-40 keV), its 8.69 sec pulsations suffered slow phase modulations by +/- 0.7 sec, with a period of approximately 15 h. When this effect is interpreted as free precession of the neutron star, the object is inferred to deviate from spherical symmetry by approximately 1.6 x 10(epx -4) in its moments of inertia. This deformation, when ascribed to magnetic pressure, suggest a strong toroidal magnetic field, approximately 10(exp 12) T, residing inside the object. This provides one of the first observational approaches towards toroidal magnetic fields of magnetars.

MagnetizedNeutron Star in the Magnetar 4U 0142+61↗

Magnetic Properties of Fe-49Co-2V Alloy and Pure Fe at Room and Elevated Temperatures

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has a need for soft magnetic materials for fission power and ion propulsion systems. In this work the magnetic properties of the soft magnetic materials Hiperco 50 (Fe-49wt%Cr-2V) and CMI-C (commercially pure magnetic iron) were examined at various temperatures up to 600 C. Toroidal Hiperco 50 samples were made from stacks of 0.35 mm thick sheet, toroidal CMI-C specimens were machined out of solid bar stock, and both were heat treated prior to testing. The magnetic properties of a Hiperco 50 sample were measured at various temperatures up to 600 C and then again after returning to room temperature; the magnetic properties of CMI-C were tested at temperatures up to 400 C. For Hiperco 50 coercivity decreased as temperature increased, and remained low upon returning to room temperature; maximum permeability improved (increased) with increasing temperature and was dramatically improved upon returning to room temperature; remanence was not significantly affected by temperature; flux density at H = 0.1 kA/m increased slightly with increasing temperature, and was about 20% higher upon returning to room temperature; flux density at H = 0.5 kA/m was insensitive to temperature. It appears that the properties of Hiperco 50 improved with increasing temperature due to grain growth. There was no significant magnetic property difference between annealed and aged CMI-C iron material; permeability tended to decrease with increasing temperature; the approximate decline in the permeability at 400 C compared to room temperature was 30%; saturation flux density, B(sub S), was approximately equal for all temperatures below 400 C; B(sub S) was lower at 400 C.

De Groh, Henry C., III↗

Reconstructed Parachute System Performance During the Second LDSD Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test

NASA’s Low-Density Supersonic Decelerators project (LDSD) has developed and tested four new aerodynamic decelerator technologies for future Mars missions: two attached toroidal inflatable decelerators, a ballute, and a large supersonic parachute. On June 8, 2015, the project conducted a high-altitude, supersonic flight test of a 30.5-meter supersonic Ringsail (SSRS) canopy at the US Navy’s Pacific Missile Range Facility (PMRF) on Kauai, HI. This test, the second in a series of Supersonic Flight Dynamics Tests (SFDT-2), allowed the LDSD project to test the deployment and performance of its parachute decelerator system in the wake of a representative test vehicle (a 4.7-meter aeroshell and 6-meter toroidal inflatable aerodynamic decelerator) at conditions relevant to Mars entry for the second time. The parachute decelerator system consisted of the SSRS main parachute and a 4.4-meter ballute (called the parachute deployment device, or PDD) for its extraction. The ballute was mortar-deployed at a Mach number of 2.78 and a dynamic pressure of 493 Pa, and inflated with the aid of a water-methanol based gas generator. After flying in the wake of the test vehicle for ten seconds, the PDD was released and allowed to extract the main parachute pack. The SSRS reached line-stretch at a Mach number of 2.37 and dynamic pressure of 602 Pa. Following full inflation, the propagation of a tear in the canopy led to the failure of the parachute skirt band and to the subsequent failure of the vent band. The test vehicle was instrumented with load sensors, inertial sensors, and high-speed and high resolution cameras that provided data on the performance of the PDD and SSRS through deployment, inflation, and flight. This paper describes the resulting reconstructed behavior of the PDD and SSRS during deployment and inflation, their aerodynamic performance on SFDT-2, the failure of the SSRS shortly after full inflation, and the LDSD project’s investigation into its underlying causes.

O'Farrell, Clara↗

Data Assimilation and Uncertainties in Early Solar Cycle Predictions

Stochastic nature of solar activity variations together with our limited knowledge of the dynamo mechanism and subsurface dynamics causes uncertainty in predictions of the solar cycle. For improving the physics-­‐based predictions we can take advantage of the mathematical data assimilation approach that allows us to take into account both, observational errors and model uncertainties, and provide estimates of the next solar cycle along with prediction uncertainties. In this study we use the Parker's migratory dynamo model together with the equation of magnetic helicity balance, which reproduces main properties of the sunspot cycles and allow us to minimize discrepancies between the observed global activity variations and the model solution. The test simulation runs show that a reliable prediction can be obtained for two phases of preceding solar cycle: 1) if the polar field reversals shortly after the solar maxima (strong toroidal field and weak poloidal field), and 2) during the solar minima (strongest poloidal and weak toroidal fields). The early estimate of Cycle 25 obtained by this method shows that this cycle will start in 2019 – 2020, reach the maximum in 2023 – 2024, and that the mean sunspot number at the maximum will be about 90 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series).

Data Assimilation↗

Reassessment of Electromagnetic Core-Mantle Coupling and Its Implications to the Earth's Decadal Polar Motion

The observed Earth's polar motion on decadal time scales has long been conjectured to be excited by the exchange of equatorial angular momentum between the solid mantle and the fluid outer core, via the mechanism of electromagnetic (EM) core-mantle coupling. However, past estimations of the EM coupling torque from surface geomagnetic observations is too weak to account for the observed decadal polar motion. Our recent estimations from numerical geodynamo simulations have shown the opposite. In this paper, we re-examine in detail the EM coupling mechanism and the properties of the magnetic field in the electrically conducting lower mantle (characterized by a thin D″-layer at the base of the mantle). Our simulations find that the toroidal field in the D″-layer from the induction and convection of the toroidal field in the outer core could be potentially much stronger than that from the advection of the poloidal field in the outer core. The former, however, cannot be inferred from geomagnetic observations at the Earth's surface, and is missing in previous EM torque estimated from geomagnetic observations. Our deduction suggests further that this field could make the actual EM coupling torque sufficiently strong, at approximately 5 × 10(exp 19) Nm, to excite, and hence explain, the decadal polar motion to magnitude of approximately 10 mas.

Kuang, Weijia↗