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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13

Mesoscale Convective Systems in DYAMOND Global Convection‐Permitting Simulations

Abstract This study examines the deep convection populations and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) simulated in the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the atmospheric general circulation modeled on non‐hydrostatic domains) winter project. A storm tracking algorithm is applied to six DYAMOND simulations and a global high‐resolution satellite cloud and precipitation data set for comparison. The simulated frequencies of tropical deep convection and organized convective systems vary widely among models and regions, although robust MCSs are generally underestimated. The diurnal cycles of MCS initiation and mature stages are well simulated, but the amplitudes are exaggerated over land. Most models capture the observed MCS lifetime, cloud shield area, rainfall volume and movement speed. However, cloud‐top height and convective rainfall intensity are consistently overestimated, and stratiform rainfall area and amount are consistently underestimated. Possible causes for the model differences compared to observations and implications for future model developments are discussed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Simulating Hurricane Katrina in the Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model v1

Climate models are important tools for advancing understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs). Traditional global climate models, however, do not have the ability to properly simulate TC intensity due to their coarse horizontal resolution. Regional models can be run at convection‐permitting resolutions, but these models are often strongly influenced by the data used in the lateral boundary forcing, and domain choice can have a large impact on the simulation. Cloud‐resolving global climate models have demonstrated great potential for realism in TC simulations, and in this study we focus specifically on the Simple Cloud‐Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) v1 configuration. We evaluate SCREAMv1 against the observational record and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at a convection‐permitting resolution with Hurricane Katrina as our case study. We found that both models produced realistic simulations of Hurricane Katrina. SCREAMv1 demonstrated skill in simulating TC track, size, and intensity, while the model produced an excessive amount of precipitation. In comparison, WRF more accurately simulated TC precipitation and intensity, although the TC wind extent was smaller than the observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Out-of-Distribution Detection and Radiological Data Monitoring Using Statistical Process Control

Abstract Machine learning (ML) models often fail with data that deviates from their training distribution. This is a significant concern for ML-enabled devices as data drift may lead to unexpected performance. This work introduces a new framework for out of distribution (OOD) detection and data drift monitoring that combines ML and geometric methods with statistical process control (SPC). We investigated different design choices, including methods for extracting feature representations and drift quantification for OOD detection in individual images and as an approach for input data monitoring. We evaluated the framework for both identifying OOD images and demonstrating the ability to detect shifts in data streams over time. We demonstrated a proof-of-concept via the following tasks: 1) differentiating axial vs. non-axial CT images, 2) differentiating CXR vs. other radiographic imaging modalities, and 3) differentiating adult CXR vs. pediatric CXR. For the identification of individual OOD images, our framework achieved high sensitivity in detecting OOD inputs: 0.980 in CT, 0.984 in CXR, and 0.854 in pediatric CXR. Our framework is also adept at monitoring data streams and identifying the time a drift occurred. In our simulations tracking drift over time, it effectively detected a shift from CXR to non-CXR instantly, a transition from axial to non-axial CT within few days, and a drift from adult to pediatric CXRs within a day—all while maintaining a low false positive rate. Through additional experiments, we demonstrate the framework is modality-agnostic and independent from the underlying model structure, making it highly customizable for specific applications and broadly applicable across different imaging modalities and deployed ML models.

Zamzmi, Ghada↗

California wildfire spread derived using VIIRS satellite observations and an object-based tracking system

Changing wildfire regimes in the western US and other fire-prone regions pose considerable risks to human health and ecosystem function. However, our understanding of wildfire behavior is still limited by a lack of data products that systematically quantify fire spread, behavior and impacts. Here we develop a novel object-based system for tracking the progression of individual fires using 375 m Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire detections. At each half-daily time step, fire pixels are clustered according to their spatial proximity, and are either appended to an existing active fire object or are assigned to a new object. This automatic system allows us to update the attributes of each fire event, delineate the fire perimeter, and identify the active fire front shortly after satellite data acquisition. Using this system, we mapped the history of California fires during 2012–2020. Our approach and data stream may be useful for calibration and evaluation of fire spread models, estimation of near-real-time wildfire emissions, and as means for prescribing initial conditions in fire forecast models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tracking Soiling Losses: Assessment, Uncertainty, and Challenges in Mapping

Several models have been presented in the recent years to estimate the magnitude of soiling from environmental parameters. However, these models are often based on data from a single site, or at most a few sites, and only limited data are, as of yet, available on their uncertainty. The present work aims to present a first comparative analysis of soiling estimation models, using measured soiling data from various locations in the USA. The study also investigates the impact that the source of the input data can have on the estimation. The results show that the model selection is only one of the factors that can affect the evaluation. Indeed, the use of satellite-derived or ground-mounted particulate matter data can lead to the generation of different soiling maps, with factors greater than 2x between the modeled losses. The current challenges and the unanswered questions that can bias soiling estimation are discussed. Additionally, potential research directions to improve the quality of soiling modeling are identified.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Comparative Analysis of Infrastructure-Based Perception Sensors for Intelligent Transportation Systems

The rise of privatized and public investment in smart city infrastructure and intelligent transportation systems has generated a heightened demand for perception sensors that effectively track and detect objects while being reliable in diverse weather and lighting conditions. This growing demand for perception sensors has accelerated their development and enhanced their capabilities. With these new capabilities, it is challenging to determine the most suitable sensing unit to use in each situation. Therefore, it is essential to have a comprehensive understanding of the benefits and limitations of each sensing unit to effectively leverage their capabilities. The purpose of this paper is to provide a detailed evaluation of various perception sensors. Additionally, this paper will demonstrate the benefits of combining multiple perception sensors, which complement each other by addressing data gaps inherent to single-sensor systems, to facilitate the creation of a digital twin that models the real world. The Infrastructure, Perception, and Control (IPC) team will conduct data analysis using data collected through field testing at traffic intersections in Colorado Springs, Colorado, to make comparisons between sensors. This research aims to provide clear and concise information about modern perception systems, which will support the development of intelligent transportation systems.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Deep Learning Experiments for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Reducing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast errors is a challenging task that has interested the operational forecasting and research community for decades. To address this, we developed a deep learning (DL)-based multilayer perceptron (MLP) TC intensity prediction model. The model was trained using the global Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) predictors to forecast the change in TC maximum wind speed for the Atlantic basin. In the first experiment, a 24-h forecast period was considered. To overcome sample size limitations, we adopted a leave one year out (LOYO) testing scheme, where a model is trained using data from all years except one and then evaluated on the year that is left out. When tested on 2010–18 operational data using the LOYO scheme, the MLP outperformed other statistical–dynamical models by 9%–20%. Additional independent tests in 2019 and 2020 were conducted to simulate real-time operational forecasts, where the MLP model again outperformed the statistical–dynamical models by 5%–22% and achieved comparable results as HWFI. The MLP model also correctly predicted more rapid intensification events than all the four operational TC intensity models compared. In the second experiment, we developed a lightweight MLP for 6-h intensity predictions. When coupled with a synthetic TC track model, the lightweight MLP generated realistic TC intensity distribution in the Atlantic basin. Therefore, the MLP-based approach has the potential to improve operational TC intensity forecasts, and will also be a viable option for generating synthetic TCs for climate studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Deflagration to Detonation Transition Update: XDDT Code Modularization

A legacy FORTRAN 77 implementation of the Baer–Nunziato two-phase mixture theory for deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) in reactive granular materials—hereafter the XDDT (eXplosive DDT) code—has been modularized to Fortran 90 with modular structure, external input files, and adaptive mesh capability. During validation, two code defects were identified and corrected: an inconsistency in the nodal solid pressure evaluation and a nonphysical burn-front tracking criterion. The ignition criterion was also corrected to use the granular surface temperature from the interface heat transfer model, matching the original Baer implementation. An initial attempt to validate against Figure 3 of the original Baer and Nunziato (1986) paper revealed that the code’s detonation velocity on a 201-node mesh (5.5 km/s) was approximately 21% below the expected Chapman–Jouguet value for 70% TMD HMX (∼7 km/s). Validation was redirected to the piston-driven DDT experiments of McAfee et al. (1989), Shot B-9036, for which well-characterized ionization-pin data are available. With the compaction-burn coefficient calibrated to 𝐶 𝛼 = 75, the XDDT code reproduces the DDT transition time to within 0.4% and produces a steady-state detonation velocity within 4% of the McAfee experimental value of 6.36 km/s. The burn model was generalized to support pressure-dependent exponents, enabling application to nitrocellulose-based ball propellants (TS3659) with a cube-root pressure dependence. Validation against the Sandusky/Baer PDC82 piston-impact experiment yielded a reactive wave velocity of 2.3–2.8 km/s, in good agreement with the experimental value of ∼2.2 km/s, and wave coalescence within 5% of the experimental timing. The mathematical model, input parameter requirements, and a roadmap for extending XDDT to PETN with an autocatalytic burn model are presented.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Healthcare Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe. Our goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions. We developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground. Forecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs. Real-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Platform for Automated Anomaly Detection in the Mercury Process System at the Target System in the Spallation Neutron Source

The Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory accelerates proton beams, which are directed toward a mercury target to generate the world’s most intense neutron beams via spallation. The target system consists of several interconnected subsystems and accounts for a major share of the facility’s overall downtime. Early detection of anomalies in the target system response can thus provide the possibility of taking corrective actions to reduce downtime. Accelerator facilities have largely focused on the beam side for data-driven fault prognostics. On the target side, SNS relies on operational shift technicians (OSTs), who respond to alarms and manually flag anomalies onto the System Tracking and Reliability (STAR) platform. This paper presents one of the first studies of using machine learning (ML) to automate anomaly detection in the target system. The study focused on the mercury process system as the first use case and employed reconstruction-based anomaly detection on minutely sampled time series signals. The pipeline was integrated into the STAR platform to autonomously rank and flag anomalies every week. The STAR platform provides a user interface for the OSTs to evaluate the flagged anomalies, thereby incorporating human feedback.

Anomaly detection↗

Vehicle Tracking with Crop-based Detection

End-to-end production of vehicle tracking data from video in real-time and with high accuracy remains a challenging problem due to the computational cost of object detection on each frame. In this work we present Tracking with Crop-based Detection, a method for speeding object tracking in constrained contexts (with stable cameras and relatively-predictable object motion) such as vehicle traffic monitoring. We leverage this context to provide a strong prior for object locations, which we use to 1.) boost detection speed by detecting objects only in regions corresponding to object priors on most frames and 2.) inform the selection of the detector output for each object. We evaluate Crop-based Detection as an extension to the KIOU object tracker (Crop-KIOU) on the UA-DETRAC dataset. The proposed tracker outperforms all other reported algorithms in terms of PR-MOTA, PR-MOTP, and mostly tracked objects on the UA-DETRAC benchmark, establishing a new state-of-the-art. Relative to tracking by detection with KIOU, Crop-KIOU achieves a 26% higher frame-rate and increases accuracy. Furthermore, Tracking with Crop-based Detection can be combined with frame skipping; we show a 149% increase in framerate relative to KIOU with no decrease in accuracy using this combination of methods.

Gloudemans, Derek↗

Utah FORGE: Triaxial Direct Shear Results - February 2025

This dataset contains results from nine triaxial direct shear tests conducted by Los Alamos National Laboratory on samples from FORGE Well 16A(78)-32. The primary objectives of this work were to determine the shear strength in both intact and residual states, evaluate dilation against displacement, assess permeability in relation to displacement, time, and normal stress, understand the relationship between aperture and normal stress, and monitor the effluent chemistry as a function of time. The data includes time-series measurements of stress, displacement, permeability, and effluent chemistry, with and without experimental dilution corrections. Additional materials include profilometry data, photographic documentation of the experimental setups and apparatus, and test notes. The dataset is organized into folders corresponding to each test, containing hydromechanical data, effluent chemistry measurements, and images. The hydromechanical data consists of detailed time-series records capturing parameters such as shear force, confining pressure, permeability, and temperature. Effluent chemistry data tracks fluid composition changes over time. Also included are conference papers, presentation slides, and a summary document outlining the experiments.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Western sector in-situ chemical oxidation project: Supplemental results after injection activities

The purpose of the Western Sector ISCO project is to inject chemical oxidants (i.e., potassium permanganate and sodium persulfate) into the eight injections wells (i.e., WSI001B, WSI001C, WSI002B, WSI002C, WSI003B, WSI003C, WSI004B, and WSI004C) and evaluate the effectiveness of the chemical oxidants at degrading indiscriminate DNAPL that is present in the subsurface. Fifteen monitoring wells (i.e., WSM001BB, WSM001B, WSM001CC, WSM001C, WSM002BB, WSM002B, WSM002CC, WSM002C, WSM003BB, WSM003B, WSM003CC, WSM003C, MSB107B, MSB107CC, and MSB107C) are currently being used by SRS to monitor the effect of the oxidant injections on the VOC plume of the Western Sector of the M-Area HWMF. Figure 1 shows the project location in reference to the M-Area Settling Basin. This is the second of three planned interim reports to track the performance of the project. The purpose of this document is to report groundwater monitoring data collected during the baseline monitoring before oxidant injections occurred and the fifteen months after oxidant injections were completed.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Droplet Evaporation-Based Approach for Microliter Fuel Property Measurements

Small-volume, high-throughput screening techniques are sought to enable downselection from a large candidate pool of bio-blendstocks to a select few, having physical properties consistent with requirements of downsized, turbo-boosted internal combustion engines. Herein, this work presents a droplet evaporation-based approach to predict heat of vaporization, vapor pressure, diffusion coefficient, and Lennard–Jones parameters for an unknown fuel. Two different schemes, considering the isothermal evaporation of a moving droplet in ambient air, are proposed, which combine droplet velocity and temperature measurements, with some known properties to predict unknown properties. The schemes utilize an inverse solution of a transient model of droplet evaporation solved in an iterative fashion. A baseline scheme, which only requires droplet size change measurements, is evaluated using test data for three liquid fuels, comprising of alkanes and alcohols, as obtained in a temperature-controlled chamber. Results yield temperature-dependent heat of vaporization and vapor pressure predictions within 10 % and 22 %, respectively, of reference values. The advanced scheme, which additionally requires droplet temperature measurement, is numerically evaluated in the current work and will be experimentally validated in future efforts. The advanced scheme is found to significantly improve prediction quality, with deviations less than 2 % and 1 % for heat of vaporization and vapor pressure, while also predicting diffusion coefficient and Lennard–Jones parameters within 5 % and 8 %, respectively. The combined set of approaches, which primarily track droplet evaporation, can be incorporated into a small-volume, high-throughput fuel screening process.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

CSP Systems Analysis 2022-2024 (Final Technical Report)

The CSP Systems Analysis project estimates the current market cost of CSP subsystems and technologies for use by the DOE Program and within NREL analysis tools. The project addresses upgrades to NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM) related to CSP, as well as development of new modules within SAM to expand the types of CSP systems that can be simulated and new tools for evaluating CSP subsystem performance or optimizing CSP system layouts, for example, SolarPILOT and SolTrace. The project evaluates the potential cost and performance of new CSP-relevant technologies and generally includes assessment of CSP technologies in support of the DOE subprogram. A primary goal of the CSP System Analysis project is to provide timely and accurate cost data to the DOE to assess the current state of CSP technologies as well as predict performance and cost for pre-commercial and emerging technologies that may impact the industry. Prior work in this task has produced technology cost reports and roadmaps for DOE and highlighted promising research paths that could reduce overall CSP cost, such as the supercritical CO2 power cycle and molten-salt trough systems. CSP Systems Analysis produces modeling tools to evaluate the performance of CSP systems, subsystems, or components, and journal articles, conference papers, technical reports and databases to disseminate information to the CSP industry. CSP technology costs are estimated and tracked using these tools as well as analysis of literature and industry sources. The CSP modeling tools and NREL analysis results are used by researchers; government, financial, and industry analysts; and other CSP stakeholders. The purpose of this final technical report is to summarize the key accomplishments of the past three years of this project. The project was divided into seven separate tasks, and in what follows, we describe the background, objectives, key accomplishments, and path forward for each task within the project, with one section of this report summarizing each task.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Contribution of Subtropical Moisture Within an Atmospheric River on Moisture Flux, Cloud Structure, and Precipitation Over the Salmon River Mountains of Idaho Using Moisture Tracers

The impact of an atmospheric river (AR) on the flux of subtropical moisture across Idaho's Salmon River Mountains and precipitation over the mountains is evaluated using the Weather, Research, and Forecasting model with water vapor tracers (WRF-WVT). The AR impacted Idaho between 17 and 19 January 2017 during the Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime Clouds: The Idaho Experiment (SNOWIE) campaign. WRF-WVT is configured to isolate the subtropical moisture contribution to the AR, the moisture flux, and precipitation. Subtropical water vapor advected by the AR into Idaho is tagged and tracked in three-dimensional space throughout the run. This allows the contribution of the subtropical moisture to the vertical distribution of water vapor and the precipitation to be directly calculated. The simulated cloud structure is compared with airborne radar data collected during two SNOWIE intensive operation periods. This study found that more than 70% of the moisture flux and more than 80% of the precipitation across the Idaho Mountains during SNOWIE IOP 4 could be attributed to subtropical moisture within the AR. Nearly all of the moisture flux in the upper cloud and 50% of the moisture in the lower cloud was attributable to the subtropical moisture. The subtropical moisture contribution within the AR to precipitation ranged from 35% in northern Idaho to more than 90% in southern Idaho. Across the entire period of impact of the AR, more than 60% of precipitation in Idaho was attributable to the subtropical moisture within the AR, with this percentage increasing toward the south across the state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal conductivity evaluation of ion irradiated Si 3 N 4 and ZrN ceramics using spatial domain thermoreflectance

Nitride ceramics have been investigated for different applications in the nuclear industry, such as space nuclear power, fusion reactor diagnostics and plasma heating, inert matrix fuels, and accident tolerant fuels. Although thermal conductivity remains one of the most important properties to track following irradiation, traditional techniques such as laser flash and xenon flash are limited to bulk sample characterization, which requires lengthy and cost-consuming neutron irradiation. This work used spatial domain thermoreflectance (SDTR) for the micrometer-scale measurement of thermal conductivity in 15 MeV Ni ion-irradiated silicon nitride and zirconium nitride from 1 to 50 dpa and 300 to 700 °C. Here, the SDTR-measured unirradiated thermal conductivity was found to be consistent with the published data on bulk samples. Electrically conductive ZrN exhibits modest reduction after irradiation which is minimal at the highest irradiation temperatures. In electrically insulating Si 3 N 4 , the reduction is more significant and unlike ZrN, the reduction remains significant even at a higher irradiation temperature. The thermal resistance evolution following irradiation was compared with lattice swelling, which was determined using grazing incidence x-ray diffraction, and radiation-induced defects were observed using transmission electron microscopy. A saturation value was observed between 15 and 50 dpa for thermal conductivity degradation in both nitride ceramics and a direct correlation with high-temperature defect recombination was observed, as well as the potential presence of additional carrier scattering mechanisms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Assessment of Carbonated Brine Injection as Low-risk Strategy for Geologic Carbon Storage

The main objective of this early-phase research was to evaluate the techno-economic feasibility and risk associated with combined brine and CO 2 storage in SWD wells using brine dissolution in the North Dakota portion of the Williston Basin. Three simulation studies were conducted to investigate: (1) CO 2 phases at different conditions, (2) wellbore compatibility, and (3) long-term storage fate in reservoir. (1) A simple reservoir model and injection simulations were created using data to represent the BEST (brine extraction and storage test) site, an operational SWD facility located near Watford City, North Dakota. The pressure evolution caused by CO 2 comingled in produced water injectate in a layer cake reservoir was then modeled while tracking aqueous CO 2 throughout the project. The salinity of the injection water, the salinity of the reservoir brine, and the amount of dissolved CO 2 comingled in the injection water were varied. (2) A wellbore corrosion model was performed using the CO 2 concentrations selected based on the reservoir modeling to examine the carbonated produced water impact on wellbore. (3) Reactive transport modeling was conducted with the optimal CO 2 concentration for this injection site to study the rock-fluid interactions and CO 2 fate in the reservoir. Results suggest that CO 2 dissolved in produced water can be injected without appreciably increasing subsurface pressure or leakage risks. Pressure buildup was found to vary with salinity but not with CO 2 mass fraction. Simulation results show that lower CO 2 percent mass fraction leads to a higher amount of CO 2 that can be dissolved at a higher injection salinity. Furthermore, the long-term goal of dissolution trapping in a traditional carbon storage project is accomplished from the start, mitigating risks associated with potential migration of buoyant CO 2 , so long as the reservoir pressure and temperature are used to determine the maximum mass fraction of the dissolved CO 2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗