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At least 235 records · Page 13

Detecting Volcanic Co2 Emissions Hidden in Tropical Volcanic Forests Using Fixed-Wing sUAS

CO2 emissions are among the earliest indicators of subsurface state change and reactivation of volcanic systems and these deep signals reflect in faint diffuse emissions variations on volcanic flanks. Monitoring vast areas of rainforests covering tropical volcanoes is challenging, and space-borne sensors like OCO-2 are not sensitive enough. Fortunately, trees exposed to mild enhancements of CO2 may experience fertilization and build excess CO2 into excess biomass (Cawse-Nicholson, et al. 2018, Biogeosciences). They also process excess CO2 through photosynthesis, measurable by fluorescence (Bogue et al., 2019, Biogeosciences). Furthermore, spaceborne remote sensing instruments have demonstrated increasing NDVI months to years before eruptions, unexplained by other factors (e.g., Houlie et al. 2006, EPSL; Seiler et al. 2017, PLoS One). By providing a means to map large areas of above-canopy CO2 variations over tropical rainforest on the flanks of actively degassing volcanoes, we enable to interpret the signals plants provide in response to excess CO2 with airborne and spaceborne hyperspectral remote sensing methods, including a possible future Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) NASA satellite mission.As a critical step to mature and test this concept, we deployed small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) using a fixed-wing sUAS designed for autonomous operations and long endurance in extreme environments, without causing significant disturbance of the sampled air. We integrated an in-situ sensor to record the CO2 enhancement field above the forest canopy. Test flight results on the flanks of Turrialba volcano in Costa Rica above forest canopies covering known moderate gas seeps demonstrate the sUAS-borne detection and mapping capabilities of above-canopy elevated CO2 gradients. The strong detection capabilities and high detector signal stability resulted from key system design elements including RF shielding, mechanical stabilization, and calibration procedures. This highly robust system is readily applied for diffuse volcanic CO2 emission studies on active volcanoes covered by dense vegetation.

Volcanic↗

Ten Years of Land Cover Change on the California Coast Detected using Landsat Satellite Image Analysis

Landsat satellite imagery was analyzed to generate a detailed record of 10 years of vegetation disturbance and regrowth for Pacific coastal areas of Marin and San Francisco Counties. The Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System (LEDAPS) methodology, a transformation of Tasseled-Cap data space, was applied to detected changes in perennial coastal shrubland, woodland, and forest cover from 1999 to 2009. Results showed several principal points of interest, within which extensive contiguous areas of similar LEDAPS vegetation change (either disturbed or restored) were detected. Regrowth areas were delineated as burned forest areas in the Point Reyes National Seashore (PRNS) from the 1995 Vision Fire. LEDAPS-detected disturbance patterns on Inverness Ridge, PRNS in areas observed with dieback of tanoak and bay laurel trees was consistent with defoliation by sudden oak death (Phytophthora ramorum). LEDAPS regrowth pixels were detected over much of the predominantly grassland/herbaceous cover of the Olema Valley ranchland near PRNS. Extensive restoration of perennial vegetation cover on Crissy Field, Baker Beach and Lobos Creek dunes in San Francisco was identified. Based on these examples, the LEDAPS methodology will be capable of fulfilling much of the need for continual, low-cost monitoring of emerging changes to coastal ecosystems.

Land Cover Change↗

Thermal contouring of forestry data: Wallops Island

The contouring of 8-13.5 micrometer thermal data collected over a forestry site in Virginia is described. The data were collected at an altitude of 1000 ft above terrain on November 4, 1970. The site was covered on three approximately parallel lines. The purpose of the contouring was to attempt to delineate pine trees attacked by southern pine bark beetle, and to map other important terrain categories. Special processing steps were required to achieve the correct aspect ratio of the thermal data. The reference for the correction procedure was color infrared photography. Data form and quality are given, processing steps are outlined, a brief interpretation of results is given, and conclusion are presented.

Thomson, F.↗

Throughfall exclusion and fertilization effects on tropical dry forest tree plantations, a large-scale experiment

Abstract. Across tropical ecosystems, global environmental change is causing drier climatic conditions and increased nutrient deposition. Such changes represent large uncertainties due to unknown interactions between drought and nutrient availability in controlling ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP). Using a large-scale manipulative experiment, we studied for 4 years whether nutrient availability affects the individual and integrated responses of aboveground and belowground ecosystem processes to throughfall exclusion in 30-year-old mixed plantations of tropical dry forest tree species in Guanacaste, Costa Rica. We used a factorial design with four treatments: control, fertilization (F), drought (D), and drought + fertilization (D + F). While we found that a 13 %–15 % reduction in soil moisture only led to weak effects in the studied ecosystem processes, NPP increased as a function of F and D + F. The relative contribution of each biomass flux to NPP varied depending on the treatment, with woody biomass being more important for F and root biomass for D + F and D. Moreover, the F treatment showed modest increases in maximum canopy cover. Plant functional type (i.e., N fixation or deciduousness) and not the experimental manipulations was the main source of variation in tree growth. Belowground processes also responded to experimental treatments, as we found a decrease in nodulation for F plots and an increase in microbial carbon use efficiency for F and D plots. Our results emphasize that nutrient availability, more so than modest reductions in soil moisture, limits ecosystem processes in tropical dry forests and that soil fertility interactions with other aspects of drought intensity (e.g., vapor pressure deficit) are yet to be explored.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Detection of Storm Damage Tracks with EOS Data

The damage surveys conducted by the NWS in the aftermath of a reported tornadic event are used to document the location of the tornado ground damage track (pathlength and width) and an estimation of the tornado intensity. This study explores the possibility of using near-real-time medium and high spatial resolution satellite imagery from the NASA Earth Observing System satellites to provide additional information for the surveys. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data were used to study the damage tracks from three tornadic storms: the La Plata, Maryland, storm of 28 April 2002 and the Ellsinore and Marquand, Missouri, storms of 24 April 2002. These storms varied in intensity and occurred over regions with significantly different land cover. It was found that, depending on the nature of the land cover, tornado damage tracks from intense storms (F1 or greater) and hail storms may be evident in ASTER, Landsat, and MODIS satellite imagery. In areas where the land cover is dominated by forests, the scar patterns can show up very clearly, while in areas of grassland and regions with few trees, scar patterns are not as obvious or cannot be seen at all in the satellite imagery. The detection of previously unidentified segments of a damage track caused by the 24 April 2002 Marquand, Missouri, tornado demonstrates the utility of satellite imagery for damage surveys. However, the capability to detect tornado tracks in satellite imagery depends on the ability to observe the ground without obstruction from space and appears to be as much dependent on the nature of the underlying surface and land cover as on the severity of the tornadic storm.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

2024 IUFRO Tree Biotechnology Conference (Aug 4-8, 2024)

The 2024 IUFRO Tree Biotechnology Conference is the biennial meeting on genomics, molecular biology, and biotechnology of forest trees, associated with the IUFRO Working Party 2.04.06. This year's meeting was held in Annapolis, MD, USA from August 4th to 8th and was hosted by Yiping Qi (University of Maryland), Edward Eisenstein (University of Maryland), Gary Coleman (University of Maryland), and Heather Coleman (Syracuse University). The conference covered seven topics over the course of five days: 1) Biological and ecological insights from OMICS, 2) Advancing technologies for targeted trait manipulation and acceptability to diverse tree species, 3) Genes, development, and physiology, 4) Translating genomics and biotechnology to practice, 5) Trees in a changing world, 6) Genetic and phenotypic diversity for breeding and genomic selection, and 7) Biotechnology for biomaterials and bioeconomy. In addition to the sessions, there were two plenary sessions, provided by John Ralph (University of Wisconsin) and Tanja Pyrhäjärvi (University of Helsinki). The meeting celebrated the second awardees of the newly created IUFRO WG 2.04.06 Award: Excellence in Forest Molecular Biology and Genomics, which was presented to Chung-Jui (C.J.) Tsai (University of Georgia). Greg Goralogia (Oregon State University) was the recipient of the associated Early Career Award. The scientific presentations at the conference highlighted cutting-edge advancements in many facets of forest biotechnology research, including applications of genomic selection in forest genetics and breeding, the use of genetic editing, tree physiology, stress response, molecular breeding, wood development, "omics" technologies, and the social and economic impacts of genetically modified (GM) trees. Scientific take homes from the meeting include the power of NMR to dissect the composition of lignin, the genomic diversity of forest trees that has enormous potential for tree improvement and the integration of systems biology with climate and geographical data. The conference attracted a mix of students (25), postdoctoral fellows (32), and scientists from academia (66) and industry (18). In all, the conference was attended by 141 registered participants, representing 20 countries that participated in 23 invited lectures (including 6 'early-career' keynotes), 27 voluntary talks and 61 poster presentations. Support for the conference was drawn from a wide variety of Academia, Industry, and Government sources, and included financial support from several tree improvement companies. Overall, the conference was a great success, providing an exceptional mix of science and social activities in a relaxed and collegial atmosphere. More information about the meeting can be found at treebiotech.org. The next meeting will be held in Stellenbosch, South Africa, in 2026, hosted jointly by Zander Myburg, Dave Drew (University of Stellenbosch,) and Sanushka Naidoo (University of Pretoria, FABI).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) evapotranspiration product Version 5.0: Algorithm development and preliminary validation

An accurate estimation of spatially and temporally continuous global terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) is essential in the assessment of surface energy, water and carbon cycles. The Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) ET product Version 4.0 (v4.0) based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method was generated to estimate global terrestrial ET. However, certain uncertainty for the GLASS ET product v4.0 limits its application. In this study, we introduced the deep neural networks (DNN) merging framework to improve terrestrial ET estimation for GLASS ET product Version 5.0 (v5.0) generation by integrating five satellite-derived ET products [Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ET product (MOD16), Shuttleworth–Wallace dual-source ET product (SW), Priestley–Taylor-based ET product (PT-JPL), modified satellite-based Priestley–Taylor ET product (MS-PT) and simple hybrid ET product (SIM)]. We compared the performance of DNN method against other merging methods, including GLASS ET algorithm v4.0 (BMA), the gradient boosting regression tree (GBRT) method and the random forest (RF) method, based on 195 global eddy covariance (EC) flux towers covering observations from 2000 through 2015. Validations indicated that the DNN had the highest accuracy among four merging methods across different land cover types, yielding the highest average determination coefficients (R 2 , 0.62), root-mean-squared-error (RMSE, 24.1 W/m 2 ) and Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE, 0.77) with a of 99% confidence interval. Compared with GLASS ET algorithm v4.0, the DNN improved on the R 2 by approximately 7% (p < 0.01) and the KGE by 10%. Based on the DNN, we then generated 8-day GLASS ET product v5.0 globally with a 1 km spatial resolution from 2001 to 2015 driven by GLASS vegetation and surface net radiation (R n ) datasets and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA2) datasets. Finally, this global terrestrial ET product provides a valuable dataset for monitoring regional and global water resources and environmental changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement of isolated-photon plus two-jet production in p p collisions at s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The dynamics of isolated-photon plus two-jet production in pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV are studied with the ATLAS detector at the LHC using a dataset corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb−1. Cross sections are measured as functions of a variety of observables, including angular correlations and invariant masses of the objects in the final state, γ+jet+jet. Measurements are also performed in phase-space regions enriched in each of the two underlying physical mechanisms, namely direct and fragmentation processes. The measurements cover the range of photon (jet) transverse momenta from 150 GeV (100 GeV) to 2 TeV. The tree-level plus parton-shower predictions from SHERPA and PYTHIA as well as the next-to-leading-order QCD predictions from SHERPA are compared with the measurements. The next-to-leading-order QCD predictions describe the data adequately in shape and normalisation except for regions of phase space such as those with high values of the invariant mass or rapidity separation of the two jets, where the predictions overestimate the data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Mapping tall shrub biomass in Alaska at landscape scale using structure-from-motion photogrammetry and lidar

Warming in arctic and boreal regions is increasing shrub cover and biomass. In southcentral Alaska, willow (Salix spp.) and alder (Alnus spp.) shrubs grow taller than many tree species and account for a substantial proportion of aboveground biomass, yet they are not individually measured as part of the operational Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program. The goal of this research was to test methods for landscape-scale mapping of tall shrub biomass in upper montane and subalpine environments using FIA-type plot measurements (n = 51) and predictor variables from imagery-based structure-from-motion (SfM) and airborne lidar. Specifically, we compared biomass models constructed from imagery acquired by unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV; ~1.7 cm pixels), imagery from the NASA Goddard's Lidar, Hyperspectral, and Thermal Airborne Imager (G-LiHT; ~3.1 cm pixels), and concomitant G-LiHT small-footprint lidar. Tall shrub biomass was most accurately predicted at 5 m resolution (R^2 = 0.81, RMSE = 1.09 kg/sq. m) using G-LiHT SfM color and structure variables. Lidar-only models had lower precision (R^2 = 0.74, RMSE = 1.26 kg/sq. m), possibly due to reduced model information content from variable multicollinearity or lower data density. Separate models for upper montane zones with trees and shrubs and subalpine zones with only shrubs were always chosen over single models based on minimization of Akaike's Information Criterion, indicating the need for variable sets robust to overhanging tree canopy. Decreasing point density from UAV (5000–8000 pts./sq. m) to the G-LiHT SfM point cloud (500–2000 pts./sq. m) had little impact on model fit, suggesting that high-resolution airborne imagery can extend SfM approaches well beyond line-of-sight restrictions for UAV platforms. Overall, our results confirmed that SfM from high-resolution imagery is a viable approach to estimate shrub biomass in the boreal region, especially when an existing lidar terrain model and local field calibration data are available to quantify uncertainty in the SfM point cloud and landscape-scale estimates of shrub biomass.

Michael Alonzo↗

Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture Can Capture Dynamics Relevant to Plant Water Uptake

A frequently expressed viewpoint across the Earth science community is that global soil moisture estimates from satellite L-band (1.4 GHz) measurements represent moisture only in a shallow surface layer (0–5 cm) and consequently are of limited value for studying global terrestrial ecosystems because plants use water from deeper rootzones. Using this argumentation, many observation-based land surface studies avoid satellite-observed soil moisture. Here, based on peer-reviewed literature across several fields, we argue that such a viewpoint is overly limiting for two reasons. First, microwave soil emission depth considerations and statistical considerations of vertically correlated soil moisture information together indicate that L-band measurements carry information about soil moisture extending below the commonly referenced 5 cm in many conditions. However, spatial variations of effective depths of representation remain uncertain. Second, in reviewing isotopic tracer field studies of plant water uptake, we find a prevalence of vegetation that primarily draws moisture from these upper soil layers. This is especially true for grasslands and croplands covering more than a third of global vegetated surfaces. Even some deeper-rooted species (i.e., shrubs and trees) preferentially or seasonally draw water from the upper soil layers. Therefore, L-band satellite soil moisture estimates are more relevant to global vegetation water uptake than commonly appreciated (i.e., relevant beyond only shallow soil processes like soil evaporation). Our commentary encourages the application of satellite soil moisture across a broader range of terrestrial hydrosphere and biosphere studies while urging more rigorous estimates of its effective depth of representation.

Andrew F. Feldman↗

Spatial and temporal variation in forest transpiration across a forested boreal peatland complex

Transpiration is a globally important component of evapotranspiration. Careful upscaling of transpiration from point measurements is thus crucial for quantifying water and energy fluxes. In spatially heterogeneous landscapes common across the boreal biome, upscaled transpiration estimates are difficult to determine due to variation in local environmental conditions (e.g., basal area, soil moisture, permafrost). Here, we sought to determine stand-level attributes that influence transpiration scalars for a forested boreal peatland complex consisting of sparsely treed wetlands and densely treed permafrost plateaus as land cover types. The objectives were to quantify spatial and temporal variability in stand-level transpiration, and to identify sources of uncertainty when scaling point measurements to the stand-level. Using heat ratio method sap flow sensors, we determined sap velocity for black spruce and tamarack for 2-week periods during peak growing season in 2013, 2017 and 2018. We found greater basal area, drier soils, and the presence of permafrost increased daily sap velocity in individual trees, suggesting that local environmental conditions are important in dictating sap velocity. When sap velocity was scaled to stand-level transpiration using gridded 20 × 20 m resolution data across the ~10 ha Scotty Creek ForestGEO plot, we observed significant differences in daily plot transpiration among years (0.17–0.30 mm), and across land cover types. Daily transpiration was lowest in grid-cells with sparsely treed wetlands compared to grid-cells with well-drained and densely treed permafrost plateaus, where daily transpiration reached 0.80 mm, or 30% of the daily evapotranspiration. When transpiration scalars (i.e., sap velocity) were not specific to the different land cover types (i.e., permafrost plateaus and wetlands), scaled stand-level transpiration was overestimated by 42%. To quantify the relative contribution of tree transpiration to ecosystem evapotranspiration, we recommend that sampling designs stratify across local environmental conditions to accurately represent variation associated with land cover types, especially with different hydrological functioning as encountered in rapidly thawing boreal peatland complexes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Disentangling error structures of precipitation datasets using decision trees

Characterizing error structures in precipitation products not only facilitates their proper applications for scientific and practical purposes but also helps improve their retrieval algorithms and processing methods. Despite the fact that multiple precipitation products have been assessed in the literature, factors that affect their error structures remain inadequately addressed. By interpreting 60 binary decision trees, this study disentangles the error characteristics of precipitation products in terms of their spatiotemporal patterns and geographical factors. Three independent precipitation products - two satellite-based and one reanalysis datasets: the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement) late run (IMERG-L), Soil Moisture to Rain-Advanced SCATterometer (SM2RAIN-ASCAT), and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 uncorrected precipitation output (MERRA2-UC), are evaluated across the contiguous United States from 2010 to 2019. Here, the ground-based Stage IV precipitation dataset is used as the ground truth. Results indicate that the MERRA2-UC outperforms the IMERG-L and SM2RAIN-ASCAT with higher accuracy and more stable interannual patterns for the analysis period. Decision trees cross-assess three spatiotemporal factors and find that the underestimation of MERRA2-UC occurs in the east of the Rocky Mountains, and SM2RAIN-ASCAT underestimates precipitation over high latitudes, especially in winter. Additionally, the decision tree method ascribes system errors to nine different geographical characteristics, of which the distance to the coast, soil type, and DEM are the three dominant features. On the other hand, the land cover type, topography position index, and aspect are three relatively weak factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forest Modeling of Jack Pine Trees for BOREAS

As a part of the intensive field campaign for the Boreal forest ecosystem-atmosphere research (BOREAS) project in August 1993, the NASA/JPL AIRSAR covered an area of about 100 km by 100 km near the Prince Albert National Park in Saskatchewan, Canada. At the same time, ground-truth measurements were made in several stands which have been selected as the primary study sites, as well as in some auxiliary sites. This paper focuses on an area including Jack Pine stands in the Nipawin area near the park.

radar BOREAS↗

Integrating static PRA information with risk informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) simulation methods

The overall objective of the project was to develop a computationally feasible and user-friendly mechanized process to integrate traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and dynamic PRA (DPRA) results. Starting with the systematic identification of items in an existing PRA that need dynamic augmentation, the project used a generic 4-loop pressurized reactor (PWR) and 3-loop PWR as example plants. Station blackout (SBO) and large break loss of coolant accident SBLOCA) were selected as the example initiating events. Using the traditional event-tree (ET)/fault-tree (FT) methodology augmented by dynamic evet tree approach, the potential consequences of the initiating events were simulated with RELAP-3D and MELCOR/RASCAL codes to cover Level 1 through Level 3 of PRA. RAVEN and ADAPT software were used to generate Level 1 simulations with RELAP-3D and Level 2/3 simulations with MELCOR (Level 2)/RASCAL (Level 3), respectively. Example branching conditions (BCs) for SBO included AC power recovery time, valve repair failure time, reactor coolant pump leak time/break size and emergency power supply duration to a total of 9. Example BCs for LOCA included off-site power recovery time, diesel generator power recovery time, auxiliary feed water system operation time, safety relief valve failure to open upon demand, reactor coolant pump seal break time and size to a total of 21. Each RELAP-3D simulation (9,587 scenarios) was labelled OK or Core Damage based on the maximum allowed peak clad temperature (2,100oF). Each MELCOR simulation (4610 scenarios) was labeled as Bin over 10rem or Bin 0-10rem based on the dose at the site boundary. The scenarios were clustered based on the criteria above using the mean shift methodology. Classical PRA (CPRA) and DPRA results were compared to identify the ET sequences that need DPRA augmentation. Several approaches were proposed for the incorporation of these sequences into CPRA using clustering with the mean shift methodology, restructuring the CPRA ETs by adding new BCs/sequences, and using the concept of a limit surface. Procedures for decision making regarding the possible consequences of an initiating event (e.g. core damage or not, site evacuation or not) were developed using a convolutional neural network (CNN), a recurrent neural network (RNN) and a transformer neural network (TNN). The project has led to two PhD degrees, three archival journal papers and five refereed conference proceedings.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Operational applications of satellite snowcover observations in Rio Grande drainage of Colorado

Various mapping techniques were tried and evaluated. There were many problems encountered such as distinquishing clouds from snow and snow under trees. A partial solution to some of the problems involves ground reconnaissance and low air flights. Snow areas, cloud cover, and total areas were planimetered after transferring imagery by use of zoom transfer scope. These determinations were then compared to areas determined by use of a density slicer. Considerable adjustment is required for these two values to compare. NOAA pictures were also utilized in the evaluation. Forest cover is one of the parameters used in the modeling process. The determination of this percentage is being explored.

Washicheck, J. N.↗

The use of aircraft laser ranging data for forest mensuration

Laser studies dealing with various aspects of forest canopy measurement are reviewed. Aircraft LIDAR data have been used to estimate canopy density, tree heights, forest volume and biomass, to discriminate terrain units, and to add a height component to multispectral forest cover classifications. Linear comparisons between photogrammetrically-estimated canopy density and laser metrics indicate that the laser explains 45-65 percent of the variation noted in the photo estimates.

Nelson, Ross F.↗

Nuclear safety for the space exploration initiative

The results of a study to identify potential hazards arising from nuclear reactor power systems for use on the lunar and Martian surfaces, related safety issues, and resolutions of such issues by system design changes, operating procedures, and other means are presented. All safety aspects of nuclear reactor power systems from prelaunch ground handling to eventual disposal were examined consistent with the level of detail for SP-100 reactor design at the 1988 System Design Review and for launch vehicle and space transport vehicle designs and mission descriptions as defined in the 90-day Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) study. Information from previous aerospace nuclear safety studies was used where appropriate. Safety requirements for the SP-100 space nuclear reactor system were compiled. Mission profiles were defined with emphasis on activities after low earth orbit insertion. Accident scenarios were then qualitatively defined for each mission phase. Safety issues were identified for all mission phases with the aid of simplified event trees. Safety issue resolution approaches of the SP-100 program were compiled. Resolution approaches for those safety issues not covered by the SP-100 program were identified. Additionally, the resolution approaches of the SP-100 program were examined in light of the moon and Mars missions.

Dix, Terry E.↗

Comprehensive Analysis of Thirty Years of Land Change in Georgia: Forest Degradation, Land-Use Patterns, and Drivers

In this talk, we present results from a study, funded by the NASA Land-Cover and Land-Use Change program, of thirty years of environmental change in the country of Georgia. The country, a former Soviet Union Republic, has experienced more political, economic and social change in the last 30 years than most countries. But the environmental implications of these extreme events remain largely unknown – the region is understudied, no national forest inventory has been completed in 20 years, and previous research in the area conducted by the authors were not successful. The latter statement is because of forest degradation. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, much of the forestry infrastructure broke down and people resorted to chopping down individual trees. The result was in many parts of the country a reduction in forest biomass but not to the point of a change in land cover. This type of forest degradation, which was either gradual over decades or abrupt, could not be readily identified using the methods and data at our disposal at the time. In the recent study, we had full access to the Landsat archive in combination with computing power. By using monitoring methods that are based on time series analysis, we were able to capture and identify the gradual processes driven by small scale activities that are so characteristic of the post-Soviet Georgian landscape. We developed an approach (“CCDC-SMA”) that combines time series analysis and spectral mixture analysis running on Google Earth Engine for monitoring abrupt and gradual forest degradation. By using this approach, we found that forest degradation was significantly larger than the area estimate of deforestation; 3,541 ± 556 km2 (11% of the forest area in 1987) compared to 158 ± 98 km2 from 1987 to 2020. The prevailing narrative is that legal and illegal cutting of trees for fuelwood is primarily responsible for this process. Yet, since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the country has undergone rapid socioeconomic and institutional changes which have not been explored as drivers of forest change. To further our understanding of the underlying causes, we combined forest disturbance estimates, Georgian statistical data, and historical institutional change data to examine socioeconomic drivers of forest degradation. We found that higher winter temperature and drought were associated with higher degradation at the regional scale, while major institutional changes and drought were associated with higher forest degradation at the national level. Access to natural gas, the major energy alternative to fuelwood, had no significant association with degradation. Our results challenge the narrative that poverty and a lack of alternative energy infrastructure drive forest degradation and suggest that government policies banning household fuelwood cutting, including the new Forest Code of 2020, may not reduce forest degradation. Given these results, improved data on wood harvesting and more research on the commercial drivers of degradation and their links to economic and political reforms is needed to better inform forest policy in the region, especially given ongoing risks from climate change.

Pontus Olofsson↗