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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States

Previous studies have identified a recent increase in wildfire activity in the western United States (WUS). However, the extent to which this trend is due to weather pattern changes dominated by natural variability versus anthropogenic warming has been unclear. Using an ensemble constructed flow analogue approach, we have employed observations to estimate vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the leading meteorological variable that controls wildfires, associated with different atmospheric circulation patterns. Our results show that for the period 1979 to 2020, variation in the atmospheric circulation explains, on average, only 32% of the observed VPD trend of 0.48 ± 0.25 hPa/decade (95% CI) over the WUS during the warm season (May to September). The remaining 68% of the upward VPD trend is likely due to anthropogenic warming. The ensemble simulations of climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project suggest that anthropogenic forcing explains an even larger fraction of the observed VPD trend (88%) for the same period and region. These models and observational estimates likely provide a lower and an upper bound on the true impact of anthropogenic warming on the VPD trend over the WUS. During August 2020, when the August Complex “Gigafire” occurred in the WUS, anthropogenic warming likely explains 50% of the unprecedented high VPD anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-xSP NEON Soaproot Saddle (SOAP)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xSP NEON Soaproot Saddle (SOAP). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xSP NEON Soaproot Saddle (SOAP) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The Soaproot Saddle is a complex terrain of coarse hills, steep slopes and narrow drainages. With an elevation of 3274 - 4537’ this site encompasses 1438 acres of mixed conifer forests that are experiencing high levels of mortality due to native Pine beetles. At the core of this site stands a 171’ tall flux tower that collects physical and chemical properties of atmosphere and related process. Soaproot Saddle also hosts an array of sensor measurements along with field observations collected by highly trained NEON staff. The automated instrument measurements and some of the terrestrial observational safor this field site are colocted with NEON's aquatic site, Upper Big Creek, which is located just north of Soaproot Saddle's site boundaries.

Network), NEON (National Ecological Observatory [N↗
DOE OSTI2026

Search for GeV-scale dark matter from the Galactic Center with IceCube-DeepCore

Models describing dark matter as a novel particle often predict that its annihilation or decay into Standard Model particles could produce a detectable neutrino flux in regions of high dark matter density, such as the Galactic Center. In this work, we search for these neutrinos using ∼9 years of IceCube-DeepCore data with an event selection optimized for energies between 15 to 200 GeV. We considered several annihilation and decay channels and dark matter masses ranging from 15 GeV up to 8 TeV. No significant deviation from the background expectation from atmospheric neutrinos and muons was found. The most significant result was found for a dark matter mass of 201.6 GeV annihilating into a pair of bb¯ quarks assuming the Navarro–Frenk–White halo profile with a post-trial significance of 1.08σ. We present upper limits on the thermally averaged annihilation cross section of the order of 10-24 cm3 s-1, as well as lower limits on the dark matter decay lifetime up to 1026 s for dark matter masses between 5 GeV up to 8 TeV. These results strengthen the current IceCube limits on dark matter masses above 20 GeV and provide an order of magnitude improvement at lower masses. In addition, they represent the strongest constraints from any neutrino telescope on GeV-scale dark matter and are among the world-leading limits for several dark matter scenarios.

Abbasi, R↗
DOE OSTI2026

Custom surface reflectance, shade mask, and equivalent water thickness maps for the Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (2025)

This dataset contains land surface reflectance estimates and additional derived products generated from NEON Imaging Spectrometer (NIS) data collected in the Upper Gunnison river basin during June and July of 2025. Data was collected over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). These products were derived from radiance and LiDAR data collected by the NEON Airborne Observation Platform (AOP) campaign funded by the Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) (doi:10.15485/3017965). Products include per-pixel surface reflectance (rfl) and reflectance uncertainty (rfl_unc), observational data (obs), canopy equivalent water thickness (ewt), and shade masks. Atmospheric correction was performed per flightline using the ISOFIT (Imaging Spectrometer Optimal FITting) optimal estimation framework to estimate surface reflectance and the associated per-band reflectance uncertainty. Reflectance retrievals achieved a mean absolute error of 1.5% across diverse validation surfaces (see validation report.pdf). Equivalent water thickness was calculated from surface reflectance using the Beer–Lambert absorption of liquid water. Shade masks were generated based on the geometry between the sun angle, ground surface, and sensor at the time of flight. Data products are provided per-flightline and as mosaics for each domain. Flightline data products are provided as ENVI-formatted binary files (rfl, rfl_unc, ewt) and GeoTIFFs (shade). Reflectance and uncertainty mosaics are provided as tiled NetCDFs, while all other mosaicked products are provided as cloud-optimized GeoTIFFs. These formats are supported by common geospatial software (e.g., QGIS, ArcGIS, ENVI) and programmatic libraries in Python (e.g., rasterio, xarray, spectral, netCDF4) and R (e.g., terra, ncdf4). Processing workflows were designed to be equivalent to those used to generate the 2018 CHESS campaign airborne imaging spectroscopy data products (doi:10.15485/3013527). All outputs were co-registered to a common spatial grid to support time series analyses. CHESS Project Description: The Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) comprised a multi-week airborne remote sensing and field observation campaign in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, conducted in June and July of 2025. Airborne remote sensing was conducted by the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP), concurrent with a field campaign run by the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), and NASA-JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) program. Between June 10 and July 18, 2025, the NEON AOP flight team collected high-resolution aerial imaging spectroscopy and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). In coordination with the flights, a field campaign acquired ground-truth observations, including observations of vegetation composition, foliar traits, forest demography, and subsurface properties in 18 core sampling areas within the domains. Additional surface water observations were taken at over 380 point locations. All CHESS campaign datasets can be found within the CHESS ESS-DIVE data portal: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/chess. Funding Acknowledgment: Data acquisition was performed under a grant from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC24K1005). Computational research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004) and was funded by EMIT Extended Mission Phase E Science.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mesoscale evaluation of AMPS using AWARE radar observations of a wind and precipitation event over the Ross Island region of Antarctica

Surface, upper-air, and radar observations are used to assess the performance of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) in simulating the mesoscale aspects of a wind and precipitation event over the Ross Island region of Antarctica that spanned January 16–20, 2016. The observations, collected during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), provide a unique dataset for evaluating AMPS, especially the radar observations that facilitate a three-dimensional depiction of winds and precipitation. Comparisons of AMPS forecast data with surface meteorology, balloon-sounding, and profiling radar observations at and above sites near McMurdo Station reveal a mixture of similarities and differences. A generally southerly flow is evident at low levels in both the AMPS simulations and observed Doppler radial velocities. AMPS winds are comparable to those observed at the surface and aloft in terms of magnitude, direction, and timing but the strongest simulated southerly flow is displaced eastward relative to the observations. AMPS-simulated reflectivity over the broader Ross Island region is more limited in areal extent and smaller in magnitude than observed by a scanning Doppler radar. Three episodes of surface precipitation are observed near McMurdo Station over the five-day event with peak rates of ~3 mm h -1 and a total accumulation of ~22 mm. However, AMPS produces no surface precipitation at that location over the five-day event due to a low-level dry bias in the forecasts. Herein, the results show the first observationally based three-dimensional understanding of meteorology in the Ross Island region.

AMPS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Novel, Middle and Long Wave Infrared Laser Sources For Accelerator Applications

The main accomplishment during Years 2020-2024 of the DOE Accelerator Stewardship Program is proof-of-principle demonstration of amplification of an ultrashort 10 µm seed pulse in a multiatmosphere CO 2 laser optically pumped by nanosecond pulses of either a ~4.3 µm Fe:ZnSe laser or a 2.8 µm electro-optically (EO) Q-switched Er: Laser. This has been accomplished at the UCLA Neptune Laboratory by using about 100 mJ, ~100 ns long pulses generated by the pump laser built for this purpose by the UAB team. Implementation of EO Q-switching regime in the solid-state Er:laser system made possible nanosecond synchronization between the pump pulse and the 0.5 ps seed pulse produced by a commercial Ti:sapphire laser based mid-IR OPA/DFG. The injection mode-locking regime realized in a compact Mult atmosphere 3 Hz CO 2 -He regenerative amplifier enabled generation of a train of ultrashort pulses separated by the cavity round-trip time of ~3.2 ns. The measured gain lifetime of ~1 µs at a total pressure of ~12-15 atm indicates that lifetime of the upper laser level is a critical limiting factor in designing high-pressure CO 2 amplifiers. A single picosecond 10 mm pulse with an energy 0.1-0.2 mJ was extracted from the amplifier’s cavity using an ultrafast Ge semiconductor switch whose reflectivity was photo-induced by a femtosecond 800 nm pulse. For direct amplification regime, nonlinear absorption in Ge at 10 mm at GW/cm 2 intensities limited the extracted energy. Therefore, the generated energy could be further increased by minimizing losses in the switch and optimizing the cavity mode size. Based on the obtained data in collaboration with BNL colleagues, we have designed a high-pressure CO 2 amplifier to be used as a preamplifier for the future experiments at the ATF BNL. The latter work is the subject of funding availability.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reactive transport modeling of the Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) system at Stockton University, New Jersey during seasonal operations

Hydrogeochemical processes associated with Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) operations can often impact the system performance owing to mineral precipitation either at the wellbore or in the aquifer owing to changes in temperature and fluid disequilibria. Although failure of ATES systems due to mineral precipitation ("fouling") is common, predictive reactive-transport models have rarely been applied to plan their design and operation. Here, the objective of this study is to develop a reactive-transport model by coupling thermal, hydrological, and chemical (THC) processes to evaluate effects of introduced atmospheric oxygen on water chemistry, mineral precipitation/dissolution, porosity, and permeability changes associated with an ATES system at Stockton University (New Jersey, USA). The THC model builds on a Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical (THM) model of the site that evaluated system failure owing to possible fracturing in the caprock or around the wellbore. The causes of the system failure are not known – potential causes include hydraulic fracturing owing to elevated pump pressures that took place, a flow pathway created by one of the boreholes, or a pre-existing natural hydrologic connection between the upper unconfined aquifer and the ATES aquifer, any of which could have led to oxygenated water entering the reservoir and causing the observed Fe-oxide fouling on well screens. The THC model is used to evaluate some of the hypotheses and observations regarding system failure owing to geochemical processes. The reactive-transport code TOUGHREACT V4 was used to model the THC processes during seasonal heating and cooling operations at the Stockton ATES site over 6 years of operation. In the THC simulations, the primary effects on geochemistry were observed when the injection water is saturated with atmospheric oxygen. Simulations show greater precipitation of goethite near the cold wells as compared to the warm wells. Although volume fractions of Fe-hydroxides were relatively small, the model was aimed at processes in the aquifer at the scale of meters and larger rather than at the scale of mm or cm (i.e., a well screen). Kaolinite is the dominant precipitating phase, also around the cold wells. Illite dissolves near the cold wells and precipitates near the warm wells. There is a net decrease in the porosity near the cold wells and increase near the warm wells, although a slight amount of thermal contraction near the cold wells and expansion near the warm wells is responsible for a significant proportion of the porosity change. Owing to the coarse discretization of the numerical grid near the wells (compared to the screen thickness) the magnitude of permeability changes at the wellbore are likely underestimated. The reactive transport model in this study can be used for characterization of aquifers, optimizing the operational parameters (temperature, pressure, pH etc.), and planning of mitigation strategies for ATES systems.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

How long can luminous blue variables sleep? A long-term photometric variability and spectral study of the Galactic candidate luminous blue variable MN 112

ABSTRACT Luminous blue variables (LBVs) are massive stars that show strong spectral and photometric variability. The questions of what evolutionary stages they represent and what exactly drives their instability are still open, and thus it is important to understand whether LBVs without significant ongoing activity exist, and for how long such dormant LBVs may ‘sleep’. In this paper we investigate the long-term variability properties of the LBV candidate MN 112, by combining its optical and infrared spectral data covering 12 years with photometric data covering nearly a century, as acquired from both modern time-domain sky surveys and historical photographic plates. We analyse the spectra, derive the physical properties of the star by modelling its atmosphere, and use a new distance estimate from Gaia data release 3 (DR3) to determine the position of MN 112 both inside the Galaxy and in the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram. The distance estimation has almost doubled in comparison with Gaia DR2. Because of this, MN 112 moved to upper part of the diagram, and according to our modelling it lies on an evolutionary track for a star with initial mass $M_*=70~\rm M_\odot$ near the Humphreys–Davidson limit. Given the absence of any significant variability, we conclude that the star is a dormant LBV that has now been inactive for at least a century.

Maryeva, O. V. (ORCID:0000000314424755)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Supporting Advancement in Weather and Water Prediction in the Upper Colorado River Basin: The SPLASH Campaign

Water is a critical resource that causes significant challenges to inhabitants of the western United States. These challenges are likely to intensify as the result of expanding population and climate-related changes that act to reduce runoff in areas of complex terrain. To better understand the physical processes that drive the transition of mountain precipitation to streamflow, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has deployed suites of environmental sensors throughout the East River watershed of Colorado as part of the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH). This includes surface-based sensors over a network of five different observing sites, airborne platforms, and sophisticated remote sensors to provide detailed information on spatiotemporal variability of key parameters. With a 2-yr deployment, these sensors offer detailed insight into precipitation, the lower atmosphere, and the surface, and support the development of datasets targeting improved prediction of weather and water. Initial datasets have been published and are laying a foundation for improved characterization of physical processes and their interactions driving mountain hydrology, evaluation and improvement of numerical prediction tools, and educational activities. SPLASH observations contain a depth and breadth of information that enables a variety of atmospheric and hydrological science analyses over the coming years that leverage collaborations between national laboratories, academia, and stakeholders, including industry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Moisture Recycling through Pumping by Mesoscale Convective Systems

Abstract Moisture recycling, the contribution of local evapotranspiration (ET) to precipitation, has been studied using bulk models assuming a well-mixed atmosphere. The latter is inconsistent with a climatologically stratified atmosphere that slants across latitudes. Reconciling the two views requires an understanding of overturning associated with different weather systems. In this study, we aim to better understand moisture recycling associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Using a convection-permitting WRF simulation equipped with water vapor tracers (WRF-WVT), we tag moisture from terrestrial ET in the U.S. Southern Great Plains during May 2015, when more than 20 MCS events occurred and produced significant precipitation and flooding. Water budget analysis reveals that approximately 76% of terrestrial ET is advected away from the region while the remaining 24% of terrestrial ET is “pumped” upward within the region, accounting for 12% of precipitation. Moisture recycling peaks during early night hours (1800–2400 LT) due to the mixing of the daytime accumulated ET by active convection. By focusing on five “diurnally driven” MCSs with less large-scale circulation influence than other MCSs during the same period, we find an upright pumping of terrestrial ET at the MCS initiation and development stages, which diverges into two branches during the MCS mature and decaying stages. One branch in the upper level advects the ET-sourced moisture downstream, while the other branch in the mid-to-upper level contributes to the trailing precipitation upstream. Overall, our analysis depicts a pumping mechanism associated with MCSs that mixes local ET vertically, highlighting its specific contributions to enhancing convective precipitation processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physicochemical and Molecular Insights into the Boundary Layer and Free Troposphere Aerosol Interactions over the Southern Great Plains

Ambient aerosols’ vertical profiles are critical for evaluating the role of aerosols in atmospheric chemistry and radiative transfer, but limited data on these profiles hinders our ability to fully assess their impact on the Earth's radiative balance. Here, in this study, we investigated the size-, time-, and altitude resolved composition of individual particles and bulk molecular composition of particle samples collected by an uncrewed aerial system–ArcticShark over the Southern Great Plains. Single particle microanalysis shows that, the free tropospheric (FT) samples are dominated (56-66%) by carbonaceous sulfate particles, while boundary layer (BL) samples are dominated (57-74%) by carbonaceous particles. Back trajectory simulations suggest that FT particles are likely influenced by long-range transport and have undergone aqueous-phase processing. Conversely, in-situ size distribution data shows evidence of particle growth in the upper BL and just below the FT. This observation may indicate vertical transport of particles from an elevated aerosol layer in the FT, possibly linked to a new particle formation event. This observation is further supported by high resolution molecular composition data, which reveals particle volatility increasing with increasing size, which aligns with the growth event. This study aids in fundamental understanding of the compositional and molecular specificity of vertically resolved organic aerosols to provide insights into particle size evolution for future atmospheric models.

ArcticShark↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thin and transient meltwater layers and false bottoms in the Arctic sea ice pack—Recent insights on these historically overlooked features

The rapid melt of snow and sea ice during the Arctic summer provides a significant source of low-salinity meltwater to the surface ocean on the local scale. The accumulation of this meltwater on, under, and around sea ice floes can result in relatively thin meltwater layers in the upper ocean. Due to the small-scale nature of these upper-ocean features, typically on the order of 1 m thick or less, they are rarely detected by standard methods, but are nevertheless pervasive and critically important in Arctic summer. Observations during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in summer 2020 focused on the evolution of such layers and made significant advancements in understanding their role in the coupled Arctic system. Here we provide a review of thin meltwater layers in the Arctic, with emphasis on the new findings from MOSAiC. Both prior and recent observational datasets indicate an intermittent yet long-lasting (weeks to months) meltwater layer in the upper ocean on the order of 0.1 m to 1.0 m in thickness, with a large spatial range. The presence of meltwater layers impacts the physical system by reducing bottom ice melt and allowing new ice formation via false bottom growth. Collectively, the meltwater layer and false bottoms reduce atmosphere-ocean exchanges of momentum, energy, and material. The impacts on the coupled Arctic system are far-reaching, including acting as a barrier for nutrient and gas exchange and impacting ecosystem diversity and productivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of UKESM aerosol size and composition using ATom measurements indicates missing marine aerosol formation mechanisms

Atmospheric aerosols influence climate through their interactions with radiation and clouds, yet large uncertainties remain in their simulation by global models. This study evaluates the United Kingdom Earth System Model version 1.1 (UKESM1.1) using global-scale aircraft observations from the Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission, focusing on aerosol lifecycle processes in the remote marine atmosphere. We assess model performance in simulating aerosol precursor vapours, number size distributions, chemical composition, and environmental conditions. Several process improvements are tested, including sulfuric acid-ammonia nucleation, ammonium nitrate scheme, methanesulfonic acid condensation, and low-temperature isoprene-derived secondary organic aerosol formation. Model biases differ significantly between the upper troposphere (UT) and the marine boundary layer (MBL). In the UT, UKESM1.1 overestimates nucleation and Aitken mode particles while underestimating accumulation mode, indicating insufficient growth. In the MBL, the model overestimates primary aerosols (e.g. seasalt) and precursor gases but underestimates nucleation and Aitken mode particles, even after incorporating updated nucleation and ammonium nitrate scheme. The persistence of low aerosol number concentrations, despite overestimated precursors, suggests missing formation pathways likely involving other species such as iodine, amines, and organic vapours. These limitations result in an unbalanced cloud condensation nuclei budget that over-relies on primary emissions. Sensitivity tests reveal that model outputs are strongly influenced by dimethyl sulfide emissions and vapour condensation schemes. Our results highlight the need for future model development to prioritise mechanistic representation of currently missing aerosol sources, rather than relying on empirical tuning, to improve aerosol-climate interaction estimates.

He, Xu-Cheng [Univ. of Cambridge (United Kingdom);↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating Tropical Versus Extratropical Influences on the Southern Hemisphere Tropical Edge in the Unified Model

Abstract Since the late 1970s, observations have shown a widening of the tropical Hadley cell (HC) circulation. State‐of‐the‐art climate models reproduce the general trend along with a projected continuous expansion. Discrepancies in expansion rates of observation‐ and model‐based studies have been attributed to differences in applied methods, natural variability and model shortcomings. Furthermore, the driving influence of tropical or extratropical processes on these changes is not well understood. All of this highlights the dynamical mechanisms and the region of origin controlling the tropical width are still insufficiently understood. Here we examine the influence of systematic model biases of the atmosphere‐only Unified Model (UM) onto the simulation of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropical edge. We utilize nudged experiments with prescribed sea surface temperatures, where potential temperature and horizontal winds are relaxed back to ERA‐Interim reanalysis for a 20‐year period in selected regions. Correcting model biases in the tropics and extratropics separately allows us to dissect the dominant remote impacts of present model errors onto the SH tropical edge simulation. The experiments are applied to established tropical width metrics ranging from near‐surface to upper‐level metrics capturing the poleward flank of the HC. We find both regions work remotely to reduce errors in the UM fields and location of the tropical edge. Surprisingly, correcting the extratropical biases, south of 45°S, more consistently improves the tropical width across the metrics and seasons than nudging the tropics (10°N–10°S). These findings demonstrate the substantial role of extratropical influences in locating the SH tropical edge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Biological mechanisms may contribute to soil carbon saturation patterns

Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) storage is a key strategy to mitigate rising atmospheric CO 2 , yet SOC pools often appear to saturate, or increase at a declining rate, as carbon (C) inputs increase. Soil C saturation is commonly hypothesized to result from the finite amount of reactive mineral surface area available for retaining SOC, and is accordingly represented in SOC models as a physicochemically determined SOC upper limit. However, mineral-associated SOC is largely microbially generated. In this perspective, we present the hypothesis that apparent SOC saturation patterns could emerge as a result of ecological constraints on microbial biomass—for example, via competition or predation—leading to reduced C flow through microbes and a reduced rate of mineral-associated SOC formation as soil C inputs increase. Microbially explicit SOC models offer an opportunity to explore this hypothesis, yet most of these models predict linear microbial biomass increases with C inputs and insensitivity of SOC to input rates. Synthesis of 54 C addition studies revealed constraints on microbial biomass as C inputs increase. Different hypotheses limiting microbial density were embedded in a three-pool SOC model without explicit limits on mineral surface area. As inputs increased, the model demonstrated either no change, linear, or apparently saturating increases in mineral-associated and particulate SOC pools. Taken together, our results suggest that microbial constraints are common and could lead to reduced mineral-associated SOC formation as input rates increase. We conclude that SOC responses to altered C inputs—or any environmental change—are influenced by the ecological factors that limit microbial populations, allowing for a wider range of potential SOC responses to stimuli. Understanding how biotic versus abiotic factors contribute to these patterns will better enable us to predict and manage soil C dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Potential Benefits of Handling Mixture Statistics via a Bi-Gaussian EnKF: Tests With All-Sky Satellite Infrared Radiances

The meteorological characteristics of cloudy atmospheric columns can be very different from their clear counterparts. Thus, when a forecast ensemble is uncertain about the presence/absence of clouds at a specific atmospheric column (i.e., some members are clear while others are cloudy), that column's ensemble statistics will contain a mixture of clear and cloudy statistics. Such mixtures are inconsistent with the ensemble data assimilation algorithms currently used in numerical weather prediction. Hence, ensemble data assimilation algorithms that can handle such mixtures can potentially outperform currently used algorithms. In this study, we demonstrate the potential benefits of addressing such mixtures through a bi-Gaussian extension of the ensemble Kalman filter (BGEnKF). The BGEnKF is compared against the commonly used ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) using perfect model observing system simulated experiments (OSSEs) with a realistic weather model (the Weather Research and Forecast model). Synthetic all-sky infrared radiance observations are assimilated in this study. In these OSSEs, the BGEnKF outperforms the EnKF in terms of the horizontal wind components, temperature, specific humidity, and simulated upper tropospheric water vapor channel infrared brightness temperatures. This study is one of the first to demonstrate the potential of a Gaussian mixture model EnKF with a realistic weather model. Our results thus motivate future research toward improving numerical Earth system predictions though explicitly handling mixture statistics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of high-frequency waves in the Martian magnetosphere

Context.Various high-frequency waves in the vicinity of upper-hybrid and Langmuir frequencies are commonly observed in different space plasma environments. Such waves and fluctuations have been reported in the magnetosphere of the Earth, a planet with an intrinsic strong magnetic field. Mars has no intrinsic magnetic field and, instead, it possesses a weak induced magnetosphere, which is highly dynamic due to direct exposure to the solar wind. In the present paper, we investigate the presence of high-frequency plasma waves in the Martian plasma environment by making use of the high-resolution electric field data from the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution missioN (MAVEN) spacecraft. Aims.This study aims to provide conclusive observational evidence of the occurrence of high-frequency plasma waves around the electron plasma frequency in the Martian magnetosphere. We observe two distinct wave modes with frequency below and above the electron plasma frequency. The characteristics of these high-frequency waves are quantified and presented here. We discuss the generation of possible wave modes by taking into account the ambient plasma parameters in the region of observation. Methods.We have made use of the medium frequency (100 Hz–32 kHz) burst mode-calibrated electric field data from the Langmuir Probe and Waves instrument on board NASA’s MAVEN mission. Due to the weak magnetic field strength, the electron gyro-frequency is much lower than the electron plasma frequency, which implies that the upper-hybrid and Langmuir waves have comparable frequencies. A total of 19 wave events with wave activities around electron plasma frequency were identified by examining high-resolution spectrograms of the electric field. Results.These waves were observed around 5 LT when MAVEN crossed the magnetopause boundary and entered the magnetosheath region. These waves are either a broadband- or narrowband-type with distinguishable features in the frequency domain. The narrowband-type waves have spectral peak above the electron plasma frequency. However, in the case of broadband-type waves, the spectral peak always occurred below the electron plasma frequency. The broadband waves consistently show a periodic modulation of 8–14 ms. Conclusions.The high-frequency narrowband-type waves observed above the electron plasma frequency are believed to be associated with upper-hybrid or Langmuir waves. However, the physical mechanism responsible for the generation of broadband-type waves and the associated 8–14 ms modulation remain unexplained and further investigation is required.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Madden-Julian oscillation influences United States springtime tornado and hail frequency

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics and has a documented influence on extratropical extreme weather through modulation of synoptic atmospheric conditions. MJO phase has been correlated with anomalous tornado and severe hail frequency in the United States (US). However, the robustness of this relationship is unsettled, and the variability of physical pathways to modulation is poorly understood, despite the socioeconomic impacts that tornadoes and hail evoke. We approached this problem using pentad MJO indices and practically perfect severe weather hindcasts. MJO lifecycles were cataloged and clustered to document variability and potential pathways to enhanced subseasonal tornado and hail predictability. Statistically significant increases in US tornado and hail probabilities were documented 3–4 weeks following the period of the strongest upper-level divergence for the 53 active MJO events that propagated past the Maritime continent, contrasting with the 47 MJO events that experienced the barrier effect, during boreal spring 1979–2019. The 53 MJO events that propagated past the Maritime continent revealed three prevailing MJO evolutions—each containing unique pathways and modulation of US tornado and hail frequency—advancing our knowledge and capability to anticipate these hazards at extended lead times.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗