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Results for “Variance stabilization”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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229 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2012

Sequential Importance Sampling for Rare Event Estimation with Computer Experiments

Importance sampling often drastically improves the variance of percentile and quantile estimators of rare events. We propose a sequential strategy for iterative refinement of importance distributions for sampling uncertain inputs to a computer model to estimate quantiles of model output or the probability that the model output exceeds a fixed or random threshold. A framework is introduced for updating a model surrogate to maximize its predictive capability for rare event estimation with sequential importance sampling. Examples of the proposed methodology involving materials strength and nuclear reactor applications will be presented. The conclusions are: (1) Importance sampling improves UQ of percentile and quantile estimates relative to brute force approach; (2) Benefits of importance sampling increase as percentiles become more extreme; (3) Iterative refinement improves importance distributions in relatively few iterations; (4) Surrogates are necessary for slow running codes; (5) Sequential design improves surrogate quality in region of parameter space indicated by importance distributions; and (6) Importance distributions and VRFs stabilize quickly, while quantile estimates may converge slowly.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microbial Proxies for Anoxic Microsites Vary with Management and Partially Explain Soil Carbon Concentration

Anoxic microsites are potentially important but unresolved contributors to soil organic carbon (C) storage. How anoxic microsites vary with soil management and the degree to which anoxic microsites contribute to soil C stabilization remain unknown. Sampling from four long-term agricultural experiments in the central United States, we examined how anoxic microsites varied with management (e.g., cultivation, tillage, and manure amendments) and whether anoxic microsites determine soil C concentration in surface (0–15 cm) soils. We used a novel approach to track anaerobe habitat space and, hence, anoxic microsites using DNA copies of anaerobic functional genes over a confined volume of soil. No-till practices inconsistently increased anoxic microsite extent compared to conventionally tilled soils, and within one site organic matter amendments increased anaerobe abundance in no-till soils. Across all long-term tillage trials, uncultivated soils had ~2–4 times more copies of anaerobic functional genes than their cropland counterparts. Finally, anaerobe abundance was positively correlated to soil C concentration. Even when accounting for other soil C protection mechanisms, anaerobe abundance, our proxy for anoxic microsites, explained 41% of the variance and 5% of the unique variance in soil C concentration in cropland soils, making anoxic microsites the strongest management-responsive predictor of soil C concentration. Our results suggest that careful management of anoxic microsites may be a promising strategy to increase soil C storage within agricultural soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electrospun porous La–Sr–Co–Ni–O nanofibers for highly sensitive non-enzymatic glucose detection

Glucose biosensors are widely used for clinical, industrial, and environmental applications. Nonenzymatic electrochemical glucose biosensors based on metal oxides with a perovskite structure have exhibited high sensitivity, excellent stability, and cost efficiency. In this work, porous La–Sr–Co–Ni–O (LSCNO) nanofibers, with an ABO 3 -type perovskite structure, were prepared through optimizing the A-site and B-site elements by electrospinning, followed with calcination at 700 °C for 5 h. Characterized by scanning and transmission electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, fabricated nanofibers were confirmed to be porous and nanosized polycrystalline grains with high crystallinity. A novel La 0.75 Sr 0.25 Co 0.5 Ni 0.5 O 3 -based nonenzymatic electrochemical biosensor was developed, which is sensitive to glucose because of an electrochemically catalytic mechanism, a mediated electron transfer involving Ni(II)/Ni(III) or Co(II)/Co(III), accompanying with gluconic acid complexation. The glucose biosensor presented a linear response in the range of 0.1–1.0 mM with a calibration sensitivity of 924 ± 28 μA mM –1 , a proportion of the variance of 0.9926, and a lower limit of detection of 0.083 mM, respectively, demonstrating an outstanding analytical performance. The biosensor showed no response to the most widely used anionic surfactant, sodium dodecyl sulfate, and low sensitivity to other biomolecules, such as fructose, lactose, galactose, mannose, dopamine, and ascorbic acid. A urine sample was tested by this novel nonenzymatic electrochemical biosensor by standard addition method, suggesting a potential application for clinical test.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Mechanical vulnerability and resistance to snapping and uprooting for Central Amazon tree species

We report high descending winds generated by convective storms are a frequent and a major source of tree mortality disturbance events in the Amazon, affecting forest structure and diversity across a variety of scales, and more frequently observed in western and central portions of the basin. Soil texture in the Central Amazon also varies significantly with elevation along a topographic gradient, with decreasing clay content on plateaus, slopes and valleys respectively. In this study we investigated the critical turning moments ( M crit - rotational force at the moment of tree failure, an indicator of tree stability or wind resistance) of 60 trees, ranging from 19.0 to 41.1 cm in diameter at breast height ( DBH ) and located in different topographic positions, and for different species, using a cable-winch load-cell system. Our approach used torque as a measure of tree failure to the point of snapping or uprooting. This approach provides a better understanding of the mechanical forces required to topple trees in tropical forests, and will inform models of wind throw disturbance. Across the topographic positions, size controlled variation in M crit was quantified for cardeiro ( Scleronema mincranthum (Ducke) Ducke), mata-matá ( Eschweilera spp.), and a random selection of trees from 19 other species. Our analysis of M crit revealed that tree resistance to failure increased with size (DBH and ABG) and differed among species. No effects of topography or failure mode were found for the species either separately or pooled. For the random species, total variance in M crit explained by tree size metrics increased from an R 2 of 0.49 for DBH alone, to 0.68 when both DBH and stem fresh wood density (SWD) were included in a multiple regression model. This mechanistic approach allows the comparison of tree vulnerability induced by wind damage across ecosystems, and facilitates the use of forest structural information in ecosystem models that include variable resistance of trees to mortality inducing factors. Furthermore, our results indicate that observed topographic differences in wind throw vulnerability are likely due to elevational differences in wind velocities, rather than by differences in soil-related factors that might effect M crit .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning and process-based modeling of spatiotemporal changes in active layer thickness across Alaska

Permafrost degradation poses a growing threat to infrastructure stability and ecosystem resilience in the rapidly warming Arctic. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of active layer thickness (ALT) across Alaska by integrating field observations, environmental datasets, a physically based Stefan model, and machine learning (ML) techniques. Using weather projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5), we assessed ALT sensitivity to projected future weather conditions. The random forest (RF) model outperformed the Stefan approach in predicting ALT on the training dataset (R² = 0.84 vs. 0.53) but demonstrated lower generalizability on the test dataset (R² = 0.24 vs. 0.54). The root mean square error (RMSE) for the RF model for training and testing ranged from 14 to 22 cm, compared to 17 and 18 cm for the Stefan model. Variable importance analysis revealed that mean annual temperature and slope angle were the strongest predictors of ALT, accounting for 19% and 18% of the variance, respectively, followed by sediment transport index (14%) and stream power index (11%). Comparative analysis of baseline ALT predictions showed the Stefan model tended to project a thicker active layer (mean ± SD: 65 ± 16 cm), compared to the RF model (mean ± SD: 59 ± 8.8) cm). Both models indicated a latitudinal gradient in ALT, with shallower depths at higher latitudes. Projected ALT increases by 2100 were estimated at 3.3 ± 2.2 cm under SSP 2-4.5 and 5.9 ± 4.0 cm under SSP 5-8.5 for the ML model, whereas the Stefan model projected substantially larger increases of 13 ± 2.6 cm (SSP 2-4.5) and 28 ± 4.4 cm (SSP5-8.5). Spatial analysis showed the greatest ALT increases in northern Alaska, with relatively smaller changes in southern regions. These findings highlight the complex, multifactorial nature of ALT dynamics and the value of hybrid modeling approaches. As rising temperatures accelerate permafrost thaw, changes in ALT can disrupt ecosystems, damage infrastructures, and enhance the release of stored soil carbon, highlighting the urgent need for improved predictive capabilities to inform adaptation strategies in the Arctic.

Climate sciences↗
DOE OSTI2017

Analysis of Radiation Transport Due to Activated Coolant in the ITER Neutral Beam Injection Cell

Detailed spatial distributions of the biological dose rate due to a variety of sources are required for the design of the ITER tokamak facility to ensure that all radiological zoning limits are met. During operation, water in the Integrated loop of Blanket, Edge-localized mode and vertical stabilization coils, and Divertor (IBED) cooling system will be activated by plasma neutrons and will flow out of the bioshield through a complex system of pipes and heat exchangers. This paper discusses the methods used to characterize the biological dose rate outside the tokamak complex due to 16 N gamma radiation emitted by the activated coolant in the Neutral Beam Injection (NBI) cell of the tokamak building. Activated coolant will enter the NBI cell through the IBED Primary Heat Transfer System (PHTS), and the NBI PHTS will also become activated due to radiation streaming through the NBI system. To properly characterize these gamma sources, the production of 16 N, the decay of 16 N, and the flow of activated water through the coolant loops were modeled. The impact of conservative approximations on the solution was also examined. Once the source due to activated coolant was calculated, the resulting biological dose rate outside the north wall of the NBI cell was determined through the use of sophisticated variance reduction techniques. The AutomateD VAriaNce reducTion Generator (ADVANTG) software implements methods developed specifically to provide highly effective variance reduction for complex radiation transport simulations such as those encountered with ITER. Using ADVANTG with the Monte Carlo N-particle (MCNP) radiation transport code, radiation responses were calculated on a fine spatial mesh with a high degree of statistical accuracy. In conclusion, advanced visualization tools were also developed and used to determine pipe cell connectivity, to facilitate model checking, and to post-process the transport simulation results.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

NASA Tech Briefs, February 2014

Topics include: JWST Integrated Simulation and Test (JIST) Core; Software for Non-Contact Measurement of an Individual's Heart Rate Using a Common Camera; Rapid Infrared Pixel Grating Response Testbed; Temperature Measurement and Stabilization in a Birefringent Whispering Gallery Resonator; JWST IV and V Simulation and Test (JIST) Solid State Recorder (SSR) Simulator; Development of a Precision Thermal Doubler for Deep Space; Improving Friction Stir Welds Using Laser Peening; Methodology of Evaluating Margins of Safety in Critical Brazed Joints; Interactive Inventory Monitoring; Sensor for Spatial Detection of Single-Event Effects in Semiconductor-Based Electronics; Reworked CCGA-624 Interconnect Package Reliability for Extreme Thermal Environments; Current-Controlled Output Driver for Directly Coupled Loads; Bulk Metallic Glasses and Matrix Composites as Spacecraft Shielding; Touch Temperature Coating for Electrical Equipment on Spacecraft; Li-Ion Electrolytes Containing Flame-Retardant Additives; Autonomous Robotic Manipulation (ARM); CARVE Log; Platform Perspective Toolkit; Convex Hull-Based Plume and Anomaly Detection; Pre-Filtration of GOSAT Data Using Only Level 1 Data and an Intelligent Filter to Remove Low Clouds; Affordability Comparison Tool - ACT; "Ascent - Commemorating Shuttle" for iPad; Cassini Mission App; Light-Weight Workflow Engine: A Server for Executing Generic Workflows; Model for System Engineering of the CheMin Instrument; Timeline Central Concepts; Parallel Particle Filter Toolkit; Particle Filter Simulation and Analysis Enabling Non-Traditional Navigation; Quasi-Terminator Orbits for Mapping Small Primitive Bodies; The Subgrid-Scale Scalar Variance Under Supercritical Pressure Conditions; Sliding Gait for ATHLETE Mobility; and Automated Generation of Adaptive Filter Using a Genetic Algorithm and Cyclic Rule Reduction.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2015

Integrating ecological and engineering concepts of resilience in microbial communities

We note that many definitions of resilience have been proffered for natural and engineered ecosystems, but a conceptual consensus on resilience in microbial communities is still lacking. Here, we argue that the disconnect largely results from the wide variance in microbial community complexity, which range from simple synthetic consortia to complex natural communities, and divergence between the typical practical outcomes emphasized by ecologists and engineers. Viewing microbial communities as elasto-plastic systems, we argue that this gap between the engineering and ecological definitions of resilience stems from their respective emphases on elastic and plastic deformation, respectively. We propose that the two concepts may be fundamentally united around the resilience of function rather than state in microbial communities and the regularity in the relationship between environmental variation and a community’s functional response. Furthermore, we posit that functional resilience is an intrinsic property of microbial communities, suggesting that state changes in response to environmental variation may be a key mechanism driving resilience in microbial communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spatial patterns of historical crop yields reveal soil health attributes in US Midwest fields

Abstract Attaining high crop yields and increasing carbon storage in agricultural soils, while avoiding negative environmental impacts on water quality, soil erosion, and biodiversity, requires accurate and precise management of crop inputs and management practices. The long-term analysis of spatial and temporal patterns of crop yields provides insights on how yields vary in a field, with parts of field constantly producing either high yields or low yields and other parts that fluctuate from one year to the next. The concept of yield stability has shown to be informative on how plants translate the effects of environmental conditions (e.g., soil, climate, topography) across the field and over the years in the final yield, and as a valuable layer in developing prescription maps of variable fertilizer rate inputs. Using known relationships between soil health and crop yields, we hypothesize that areas with measured constantly low yield will return low carbon to the soil affecting its heath. On this premises, yield stability zones (YSZ) provide an effective and practical integrative measure of the small-scale variability of soil health on a field relative basis. We tested this hypothesis by measuring various metrics of soil health from commercial farmers’ fields in the north central Midwest of the USA in samples replicated across YSZ, using a soil test suite commonly used by producers and stakeholders active in agricultural carbon credits markets. We found that the use of YSZ allowed us to successfully partition field-relative soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil health metrics into statistically distinct regions. Low and stable (LS) yield zones were statistically lower in normalized SOC when compared to high and stable (HS) and unstable (US) yield zones. The drivers of the yield differences within a field are a series of factors ranging from climate, topography and soil. LS zones occur in areas of compacted soil layers or shallow soils (edge of the field) on steeper slopes. The US zones occurring with high water flow accumulation, were more dependent on topography and rainfall. The differences in the components of the overall soil health score (SHS) between these YSZ increased with sample depth suggesting a deeper topsoil in the US and HS zones, driven by the accumulation of water, nutrients, and carbon downslope. Comparison of the field management provided initial evidence that zero tillage reduces the magnitude of the variance in SOC and soil health metrics between the YSZ.

Fowler, Ames↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analytical modeling and simulation of electrical contact resistance for elastic rough electrode surface contact including frictional temperature rise

An improved electrical contact resistance (ECR) model for elastic rough electrode contact is proposed, incorporating the effects of asperity interactions and temperature rise by frictional and joule heating. The analytical simulation results show that the ECR decreases steeply at the beginning of the contact between Al and Cu. However, it becomes stabilized after reaching a specific contact force. It is also found that the longer elapsed sliding contact time, the higher ECR due to the increase in electrical resistivity of electrode materials by the frictional temperature rise at the interface. The effects of surface roughness parameters on ECR are studied through the 3 2 full-factorial design-of-experiment analysis. Based on the two representative roughness parameters, i.e., root-mean-square (rms) roughness and asperity radius, their individual and coupled effects on the saturated ECR are examined. The saturated ECR increases with the rms roughness for a rough machined surface condition, but it is hardly affected by the asperity radius. On the other hand, the saturated ECR increases with both the rms roughness and the asperity radius under a smooth thin film surface condition.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Generation of Smooth High Speed Solar Wind From Plume-Interplume Mixing

Ulysses has shown that fast solar wind is extremely smooth, with a variance of less than 5%, in contrast to slow wind with a variance of approximately 30%. Now UVCS has produced the surprising result that the flow speed within coronal holes, the source of fast wind, is not at all smooth. Specifically, Giordano et al. (ApJ, v531, L79-L82, 2000) report that at 1.7 R(sub SUN) the interplume flow speed is typically more than twice the plume flow speed. Other less direct evidence supports this same result, with speeds from less than 300 to over 1000 km/s reported at approximately 5 R(sub SUN). This presents the paradox of how strongly differing plume and interplume flow speeds can exist near the Sun and be absent far from the Sun. The only answer is that plume and interplume material or momentum must be strongly mixed and that the mixing must occur mainly inside 0.3 AU to be consistent with Helios observations of smooth fast wind. Pressure balance structures (PBSs) and He abundance anomalies (Reisenfeld, et al., GRL, v26(13), 1805-1808, 1999) have been identified as interplanetary remnants of plumes, implying momentum mixing is the dominant coronal process. One possible source for plume/interplume momentum mixing is MHD Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) shear instabilities occurring on the velocity shear interfaces. The velocity shear is a source of free energy and KH fluctuations could, through nonlinear cascade, provide the forcing required for the plasma oscillations (Cranmer, ApJ, v532, 1197-1208, 2000) reported to exist in coronal holes. The physical properties in coronal holes are now sufficiently well known that we can show plume/interplume shear interfaces become unstable to the KH instability at 5 - 10 R(sub SUN). The KH dispersion relation can be used to analyze marginal stability, the most unstable wavelengths, and linear growth rates. Numerical simulations can be used to verify results from the linear analysis and study the nonlinear development of KH modes. Here we will describe the marginal stability criterion for the KH instability, how and where this condition is met in the corona, and the possible character of the resultant fluctuations.

Suess, Steve↗
DOE OSTI2016

SCALE Code System

The SCALE Code System is a widely-used modeling and simulation suite for nuclear safety analysis and design that is developed, maintained, tested, and managed by the Reactor and Nuclear Systems Division (RNSD) of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). SCALE provides a comprehensive, verified and validated, user-friendly tool set for criticality safety, reactor and lattice physics, radiation shielding, spent fuel and radioactive source term characterization, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Since 1980, regulators, licensees, and research institutions around the world have used SCALE for safety analysis and design. SCALE provides an integrated framework with dozens of computational modules including three deterministic and three Monte Carlo radiation transport solvers that are selected based on the desired solution strategy. SCALE includes current nuclear data libraries and problem-dependent processing tools for continuous-energy (CE) and multigroup (MG) neutronics and coupled neutron-gamma calculations, as well as activation, depletion, and decay calculations. SCALE includes unique capabilities for automated variance reduction for shielding calculations, as well as sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. SCALE’s graphical user interfaces assist with accurate system modeling, visualization of nuclear data, and convenient access to desired results.SCALE 6.2 provides many new capabilities and significant improvements of existing features.New capabilities include:• ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data libraries CE and MG with enhanced group structures,• Neutron covariance data based on ENDF/B-VII.1 and supplemented with ORNL data,• Covariance data for fission product yields and decay constants,• Stochastic uncertainty and correlation quantification for any SCALE sequence with Sampler,• Parallel calculations with KENO,• Problem-dependent temperature corrections for CE calculations,• CE shielding and criticality accident alarm system analysis with MAVRIC,• CE depletion with TRITON (T5-DEPL/T6-DEPL),• CE sensitivity/uncertainty analysis with TSUNAMI-3D,• Simplified and efficient LWR lattice physics with Polaris,• Large scale detailed spent fuel characterization with ORIGAMI and ORIGAMI Automator,• Advanced fission source convergence acceleration capabilities with Sourcerer,• Nuclear data library generation with AMPX, and• Integrated user interface with Fulcrum.Enhanced capabilities include:• Accurate and efficient CE Monte Carlo methods for eigenvalue and fixed source calculations,• Improved MG resonance self-shielding methodologies and data,• Resonance self-shielding with modernized and efficient XSProc integrated into most sequences,• Accelerated calculations with TRITON/NEWT (generally 4x faster than SCALE 6.1),• Spent fuel characterization with 1470 new reactor-specific libraries for ORIGEN,• Modernization of ORIGEN (Chebyshev Rational Approximation Method [CRAM] solver, API for high-performance depletion, new keyword input format)• Extension of the maximum mixture number to values well beyond the previous limit of 2147 to ~2 billion,• Nuclear data formats enabling the use of more than 999 energy groups,• Updated standard composition library to provide more accurate use of natural abundances, andvi• Numerous other enhancements for improved usability and stability.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2026

Affinity and Treatment of LDR Organics in Low Activity Waste by Cementitious Materials – 26109

The physiochemical interactions between organic contaminants, minerals, and polymer additives in grout/cementitious materials are being identified. This research supports a proposed Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) treatment variance relevant to the Land Disposal Restriction (LDR) organics present in Hanford tank waste. It provides the technical basis to address the aspects documented by the Environmental Protection Agency in a draft memo necessary to establish that organics can be immobilized/stabilized in a cementitious matrix. The organic species may interact with cementitious minerals, including slag, fly ash, cement, and other components/dopants like activated carbon. A list of 132 reasonably expected LDR organics associated with Hanford tank waste (RPP-RPT-63493, Rev 1a) was screened by functional groups, octanol-water partitioning coefficients, and detection frequency in Hanford tank waste samples. A subset of 15 compounds spanning the identified properties was tested using sorption and leachate tests. These compounds were subjected to traditional batch sorption tests and leaching tests on/from Cast Stone cementitious material with and without activated carbon (a potential organic adsorption additive). The interactions between organic compounds were observed in traditional batch sorption and modified TCLP leachate tests for surrogate Cast Stone material with and without activated carbon addition. Specifically, phthalic acid (negatively charged) and 4-chloroaniline (polar) sorbed strongly to unmodified Cast Stone, while a group of three phenolic compounds (2,4,6-Trichlorophenol, Pentachlorophenol, o-Cresol) sorbed to and were retained by Cast Stone with a 1% activated carbon amendment. Mixtures of these compounds demonstrated visible retention of the organics within the matrix with a quantifiable affinity of the organics to the cement. This novel testing supports the notion that organics within Hanford tank waste would be retained onto the cement phase with the addition of simple materials easily added to the formulation as part of the treatment process. To further provide additional support to this claim, models employing Flory-Huggins theory in conjunction with macromolecular and organic molecule solubility parameters and species activity coefficients are being utilized to better understand these interactions. Within this context, Van Krevelen (VK) and Hansen organic and polymer solubility parameters were used to inform the Flory-Huggins interaction parameter, allowing for a quantifiable method of evaluating polymer-solvent compatibility and, by extension, interactions with proposed binding additives (e.g., activated carbon). These models and measurement should test the hypothesis for our systems understanding and applicability of Flory-Huggins theory, and whether the prediction of organics in the polymer phase versus the aqueous phase can be confidently made using this strategy. The estimation of the organic molecular activity coefficient in these high salt-saturated aqueous systems is another factor that will be assessed. This project aims to predict and understand complicated organic interactions in these heterogenous systems, guiding optimal treatment and stabilization methodologies.

Jolin, Will [Savannah River National Laboratory (S↗