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At least 235 records · Page 13

UCB-GLOBES: An open-access mass spectral database of identified and unidentified atmospheric organic compounds

Chemical characterization of atmospheric organic aerosols using gas chromatography with 70 eV electron ionization mass spectrometry (GC/EI-MS) has been used for decades in advancing molecular marker detection and identification, though primarily through suspect screening and/or targeted analyses. To advance non-targeted analyses of environmental samples, we have catalogued approximately 27 000 mass spectra (MS) of the trimethylsilyl derivatives of semi-volatile organic aerosol (OA) analytes in the open-access University of California Berkeley Goldstein Library of Organic Biogenic Environmental Spectra (UCB-GLOBES). Analytes were observed in ambient samples from the U.S. and the Central Amazon and/or laboratory simulations of secondary OA (SOA) formation. These samples are representative of OA under urban and biomass burning influences as well as SOA derived from biogenic precursors (e.g., isoprene, monoterpenes, sesquiterpenes) and biomass burning intermediates. MS are documented in UCB-GLOBES without regard to known chemical identity, annotated with extensive metadata such as sample source/experimental conditions, any structural information gained from MS analyses, and predicted chemical properties such as average carbon oxidation state and carbon number. UCB-GLOBES MS are compatible for importing into the NIST MS Search program, and we have also provided a Jupyter Notebook for MS visualization and comparisons. We demonstrate the utility of UCB-GLOBES through MS reanalyses of prior analytes observed in ambient data, finding a 20 % reduction in the number of analytes assigned to OA source categories reliant solely on time series correlation and an overall 11 % increase in new MS-based OA source categorization for the Southeast U.S. For 1513 analytes observed previously in the Central Amazon, we found 375 MS matches using UCB-GLOBES vs. 136 MS matches during prior analyses, representing a 14 % gain in newly confirmed or newly categorized OA species. While OA from laboratory oxidation experiments in UCB-GLOBES are highly diverse chemically, on average only 29 % of UCB-GLOBES MS have a mass spectral match to another MS entry in UCB-GLOBES and/or in databases of known compounds (i.e. NIST MS Database, Adams Essential Oil, MANE Flavor and Fragrance Company). This indicates that roughly 70 % of UCB-GLOBES MS are unique thus far, not observed more than once among the laboratory oxidation samples and ambient data in UCB-GLOBES MS. Further, only 18 % can be positively identified using these databases or known authentic standards. This points to a large gap between these laboratory simulations and ambient OA. Overall, the UCB-GLOBES database can be utilized for improving confidence in OA source categorization and/or identification, novel chemical marker discovery, tracking chemical diversity, de novo structure and properties prediction, and improving MS search and matching algorithms. This can ultimately inform future research priorities for the chemical characterization of atmospheric organic samples.

Mass spectrometry↗

Field validation of isotropic analytical models for simulating fabric shades

Fabric roller shades are common shading materials used in commercial and residential buildings. Accurately characterizing and modeling shades helps practitioners select the appropriate product and its control strategy based on climate and occupants' priorities, such as visual comfort and view to outdoors. Previous studies established a generalized method for modeling complex fenestration systems using data-driven tabulated bidirectional scattering distribution functions. However, deploying such a method at scale to all fabric shading products on the market is too costly and time-consuming. Analytical models that are based on a limited set of measurements (e.g., normal-normal and normal-hemispherical visible transmittance and reflectance, and directional cut-off angles) can be used to model the wide variety of shading products on the market. This study evaluates the performance of two isotropic analytical models, Roos-Wienold and Modified-Kotey, for modeling fabric roller shades, with a focus on the model's ability to predict occupant visual comfort. The performance evaluation was conducted through laboratory and field measurements and simulations. The results showed that both models are sufficient for predicting vertical illuminance at seated eye-level. Roos-Wienold model was able to predict binary visual comfort classification (glare/no-glare) under a wide range of luminance conditions, while Modified-Kotey model did not perform as well under high-contrast low-adaptation conditions. Both models are insufficient in predicting visual comfort at a four-point scale (e.g., imperceptible, perceptible, disturbing, intolerable). The two isotropic models become less accurate when the fabric exhibits high anisotropy.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

HunStat – a simple and low-cost potentiostat for analytical and educational purposes

We have developed a truly low-cost (15 USD), simple do-it-yourself (DIY) potentiostat with compact dimensions. The output potential range of this device is between ±1.65 V. The developed instrument takes advantage of a Seeeduino XIAO microcontroller equipped with 10 bit digital-to-analog (D/A) and 12 bit analog-to-digital (A/D) converters and supports various voltammetry techniques, including cyclic voltammetry (CV), differential pulse voltammetry (DPV), and chronoamperometry (CA). Interested users are provided with circuit diagrams, bill of materials, and design files. Additionally, software components are also provided free of charge, including an Arduino sketch and control software. The software enables easy manipulation of electrochemical parameters and visualization of results. The presented design introduces a simple and low-cost DIY potentiostat recommended for both analytical and educational purposes.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Visualizing Millisecond Atomic Dynamics of Nanocrystals in Liquid

Atomic structures of nanomaterials are inherently dynamic and continuously reshaped through interactions with chemical species and external stimuli. Such dynamics are further amplified as the size and dimensionality of nanomaterials decrease. Despite advances in analytical methods, it remains challenging to capture the structural dynamics of nanomaterials in reactive environments with both atomic spatial resolution and commensurate temporal resolution. Here, in this study, we directly visualize atomic-scale dynamics of gold (Au) nanocrystals in reactive liquid environments with millisecond-speed liquid-cell electron microscopy (EM) and deep-learning denoising. We uncover reversible fluctuations in the local crystallinity of Au nanocrystals dependent on the surrounding chemical environment. These transient fluctuations, driven by interactions at nanocrystal–liquid interfaces, critically influence the dissolution kinetics and grain boundary relaxation. By overcoming the spatiotemporal limitations in conventional liquid-cell EM, our findings provide insights into how transient nanoscale structures dictate the stability and reactivity of nanomaterials.

Kang, Sungsu [University of Chicago, IL (United St↗

Holistic energy analysis method for thermal management architectures of data centers

Modern high-performance computing (HPC) data centers (DCs), particularly those supporting energy-intensive artificial intelligence (AI) workloads, face escalating thermal management challenges that degrade performance through thermal throttling and drive up cooling power consumption and operational costs. To address this challenge, many have developed a wide variety of thermal management solutions (single-phase, two-phase, direct, indirect, hybrid, and more) which attempt to cool HPC DCs effectively while attempting to minimize overall system power consumption. However, the analysis of these solutions and methods to effectively compare one with another is lacking. Overall power usage effectiveness (PUE) and total-power usage effectiveness (TUE) provide a metric to quantify power consumption but fail to identify components in the system which require further optimization. To address this, we propose a holistic analytical framework – the waterfall diagram (WFD) – which leverages a waterfall chart methodology, offering a comprehensive visualization of both the thermal management system loop and heat flow pathways from individual server components to the outdoor ambient. Use of the WFD enables graphical estimations of power efficiency and cooling performance across each component of a DC cooling system and complements Sankey-style energy flow visualizations by additionally resolving stage-wise temperature changes and incremental TUE contributions. The framework is used in conjunction with simulation-based approaches, to conduct a detailed pressure drop and flow distribution analysis aimed at identifying the optimal coolant distribution architecture for a single-phase direct-to-chip water-cooled DC, which serves as the baseline for subsequent WFD analysis. Among the evaluated architectures, the 3 U modular coolant distribution architecture is found to demonstrate the best performance, considering minimal pressure drop and uniform flow distribution. In addition, TUE is calculated for each cooling loop component based on its associated pressure drop and corresponding pumping power, which are integrated into the WFD. This correlation between TUE and local temperature offers immediate insight into the power efficiency and thermal performance contributions of individual components, facilitating further development and optimization. Examples of WFD applications are presented under varying thermal loads and ambient conditions, demonstrating reasonable cooling strategies. Notably, the 3 U modular architecture maintains a consistent chip case temperature of 85°C, achieving a TUE of 1.016 at ambient temperature of 47°C, and a TUE of 1.026 at ambient temperature of 52°C. The WFD methodology provides an efficient, holistic, and streamlined framework for DC thermal management architecture assessment and enables design optimization which is important for addressing the thermal-fluidic energy challenges of current and next-generation DCs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Real-time GIS Programming and Geocomputation

Streaming data generated continuously from sensor networks, mobile devices, social media platforms and other edge devices have posed significant challenges to existing computing platforms for achieving both high throughput and low latency data processing in addition to scalable computing. This entry introduces a real-time computing and programming platform for time-critical GIS (Geographic Information System) applications. In this platform, advanced streaming data processing software, such as Apache Kafka and Spark Streaming, are integrated to enable data analytics in real-time. This computing platform can also be extended to integrate GeoAI (Geospatial Artificial Intelligence) based machine learning models to leverage both historical and streaming data to achieve real-time prediction and intelligent geospatial analytics. Two real-time geospatial applications in terms of flood simulation and climate data visualization are introduced to demonstrate how real-time programming and computing can help tackle real-world problems with important societal impacts.

Liu, Yan↗

Predictive process mapping for laser powder bed fusion: A review of existing analytical solutions

One of the main challenges in the laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process is making dense and defect-free components. These porosity defects are dependent upon the melt pool geometry and the processing conditions. Power-velocity (PV) processing maps can aid in visualizing the effects of LPBF processing variables and mapping different defect regimes such as lack-of-fusion, under-melting, balling, and keyholing. This work presents an assessment of existing analytical equations and models that provide an estimate of the melt pool geometry as a function of material properties. The melt pool equations are then combined with defect criteria to provide a quick approximation of the PV processing maps for a variety of materials. Finally, the predictions of these processing maps are compared with experimental data from the literature. Here, the predictive processing maps can be computed quickly and can be coupled with dimensionless numbers and high-throughput (HT) experiments for validation. The present work provides a boundary framework for designing the optimal processing parameters for new metals and alloys based on existing analytical solutions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

On the structure of the drifton phase space and its relation to the Rayleigh–Kuo criterion of the zonal-flow stability

The phase space of driftons (drift-wave quanta) is studied within the generalized Hasegawa–Mima collisionless-plasma model in the presence of zonal flows. This phase space is made intricate by the corrections to the drifton ray equations that were recently proposed by Parker [J. Plasma Phys. 82, 595820602 (2016)] and Ruiz et al. [Phys. Plasmas 23, 122304 (2016)]. Contrary to the traditional geometrical-optics (GO) model of the drifton dynamics, it is found that driftons can not only be trapped or passing but also accumulate spatially while experiencing indefinite growth of their momenta. In particular, it is found that the Rayleigh–Kuo threshold known from geophysics corresponds to the regime when such “runaway” trajectories are the only ones possible. On one hand, this analysis helps to visualize the development of the zonostrophic instability, particularly its nonlinear stage, which is studied here both analytically and through wave-kinetic simulations. On the other hand, the GO theory predicts that zonal flows above the Rayleigh–Kuo threshold can only grow; hence, the deterioration of intense zonal flows cannot be captured within a GO model. In particular, this means that the so-called tertiary instability of intense zonal flows cannot be adequately described within the quasilinear wave kinetic equation, contrary to some previous studies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Grid Data Crossing Platform (GriD-Xing)

This project is to develop a data management and analytics platform called Grid Data Crossing (GriD-Xing) that integrates data processing, storage, analysis, and visualization functionalities for users at industry (e.g., EMS and DMS) and universities. It intends to increase the applicability of large set of multi-source data (e.g., SCADA, PMU, μPMU, AMI, inverter, load/DER forecasting, and cyber data) and eventually improve the resilience, reliability, and security of critical energy infrastructure. GriD-Xing also intends to be a research platform to identify the usefulness of large multi-source data via case studies of interest to industry (e.g., 2011 southwest cold weather and 2016 Blue Cut fire events). In the first year, the team focused on the development and demonstration of large multi-source data (e.g., PMU, μPMU, SCADA, AMI, and cyber data) processing, storage, and analysis. Specifically, the team designed GriD-Xing framework in functional and structural aspects, developed GriD-Xing algorithms for large multi-source grid data processing, storage, and analysis, and finally demonstrated GriD-Xing prototype algorithms performance through a series of tests and case studies using real-world and simulation data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Residential Solar-Adopter Income and Demographic Trends: 2021 Update [Slides]

The report describes income, demographic, and other socio-economic trends among U.S. residential rooftop solar adopters. The report is based on data for roughly 1.9 million residential rooftop solar systems installed through 2019, representing 82% of all U.S. systems. With its unique size, geographic scope, and level of detail, this report is intended to serve as a foundational reference document for policy-makers, industry stakeholders, and researchers. Key findings include the following: Solar adopters generally skew towards higher incomes, though that trend continues to diminish over time. Solar adopter incomes vary considerably and encompass many low-to-moderate income (LMI) households. Solar-adopter incomes are consistently higher for systems paired with battery storage, for host-owned systems, and for systems installed on single-family homes. Solar adopters differ from the broader U.S. population in terms of a variety of other demographic and socioeconomic measures. State-level comparisons indicate that solar-adopters tend to live in neighborhoods with relatively high non-Hispanic White and Asian populations, and with relatively low Hispanic and Black populations. In conjunction with the report, Berkeley Lab has published an updated accompanying set of online data visualizations that allow users to further explore the underlying data. Berkeley Lab is also offering related analytical support to states, local agencies, and other organizations on issues related to solar adoption among low-to-moderate income households.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Residential Solar-Adopter Income and Demographic Trends: November 2022 Update [Slides]

The report describes income, demographic, and other socio-economic trends among U.S. residential rooftop solar adopters. The report is based on address-level data for roughly 2.8 million residential rooftop solar systems installed through 2021, representing 86% of all U.S. systems. With its unique size, geographic scope, and level of detail, this report is intended to serve as a foundational reference document for policy-makers, industry stakeholders, and researchers. Key findings include the following: -Median solar adopter income was about $\$110$k/year in 2021, compared to a U.S. median of about $\$63$k/year for all households and $\$79$k/year for all owner-occupied households -The degree of income skew varies significantly across all states, but all states exhibit some positive income skew, with median solar-adopter incomes ranging from 131-168% of the respective county-median income for all households -Notwithstanding the fact that solar adopter incomes skew high, a substantial share of adopters could be considered low-to-moderate income (LMI), with 22% of all 2021 adopters earning less than 80% of area median income, and an additional 21% between 80% and 120% of area median income. -Solar-adopter incomes are declining over time, with median incomes dropping from $\$129$k in 2010 to $\$110$k in 2021, as adoption becomes more proportionately distributed across the population and has started to broaden into low- and middle-income states since 2016. -Solar-adopter incomes are consistently higher for systems paired with battery storage, for host-owned systems, and for systems installed on single-family homes; higher income adopters also consistently install larger systems. -Solar adopters tend to live in Census Tracts not identified as “disadvantaged communities” (using the U.S. Department of Energy’s interim definitions developed March 2022), making up 11% of adopters compared to 18% of U.S. households. -Compared to the broader population, solar adopters tend to: identify as Non-Hispanic White, be primarily English-speaking, have higher education levels, be middle-aged, work in business and finance-related occupations, and live in higher-value homes In conjunction with the report, Berkeley Lab has published an updated accompanying set of online data visualizations that allow users to further explore the underlying data. Berkeley Lab is also offering related analytical support to states, local agencies, and other organizations on issues related to solar adoption among low-to-moderate income households; requests for analytical support may be submitted through this online form.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Residential Solar-Adopter Income and Demographic Trends: 2023 Update [Slides]

The report describes income, demographic, and other socio-economic trends among U.S. residential rooftop solar adopters. The report is based on address-level data for roughly 3.4 million residential rooftop solar systems installed through 2022, representing 86% of all U.S. systems. With its unique size, geographic scope, and level of detail, this report is intended to serve as a foundational reference document for policy-makers, industry stakeholders, and researchers. Key findings include the following: (1) Median solar adopter income was about $\$117$k/year in 2022, compared to a U.S. median of about $\$69$k/year for all households and $\$86$k/year for all owner-occupied households; (2) The degree of income skew varies significantly across all states, but all exhibit some positive income skew relative to all households in the state, with median solar-adopter incomes ranging from 108-180% of the respective state-median income for all households; (3) Roughly 45% of solar adopters in 2022 had incomes below 120% of their area median income (AMI), a threshold sometimes used to define “low-and-moderate income” (or LMI), while 23% were below 80% of AMI, often used to define “low-income”; (4) Solar adoption continues to shift toward less affluent households, with the median current income of solar adopters dropping from $\$140$k for households that installed systems in 2010 to $\$117$k in 2022; (5) PV systems installed in 2022 by households earning less than $50k had a median size of 6.1 kW, 34% were third-party owned, and 5% included battery storage, compared to corresponding values of 7.6%, 17%, and 15% for households earning more than 200 dollars k; and (6) Compared to all households in their respective state, solar adopters tend to be negligibly more rural; have higher home values; and are more likely to be college educated, identify as non-Hispanic white, live outside a disadvantaged community (DAC), be middle-aged, work in a business or financial occupation, and own a single-family home In conjunction with the report, Berkeley Lab has published an updated accompanying set of online data visualizations that allow users to further explore the underlying data. Berkeley Lab is also offering related analytical support to states, local agencies, and other organizations on issues related to solar adoption among low-to-moderate income households.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Residential Solar-Adopter Income and Demographic Trends: 2024 Update [Slides]

The report describes income, demographic, and other socio-economic trends among U.S. residential rooftop solar adopters. The report is based on address-level data for roughly 4.1 million residential rooftop solar systems installed through 2023, representing 87% of all U.S. systems. With its unique size, geographic scope, and level of detail, this report is intended to serve as a foundational reference document for policy-makers, industry stakeholders, and researchers. Key findings include the following: -The median income of households that installed solar in 2023 was about $\$$115k/year, compared to a U.S. median of $\$$75k/year for all households and $\$$94k/year for all U.S. owner-occupied households. -Compared to owner-occupied households in the same state, 2023 solar-adopter incomes were 7% higher in the median case, and in 10 states, median solar-adopter incomes were below the corresponding median income for all owner-occupied households. -Roughly 49% of solar adopters in 2023 had incomes below 120% of their area median income (AMI), a threshold sometimes used to define “low-and-moderate income” (or LMI), while 26% were below 80% of AMI, often used to define “low-income”. -Solar adoption continues to shift toward less affluent households over time, with the median present-day income of solar adopters dropping from $\$$141k for households that installed systems in 2010 to $\$$115k in 2023. -PV systems installed in 2023 by households earning less than $\$$50k had a median size of 6.4 kW, 33% were third-party owned, and 6% included battery storage, compared to corresponding values of 8.0 kW, 18%, and 14% for households earning more than $\$$200k. -Compared to all households in their respective state, solar adopters in 2023 were slightly more likely to be college educated and to live in rural areas; had higher home values; and were more likely to live outside a disadvantaged community (DAC), be middle-aged, identify as non-Hispanic white, work in a business or financial occupation, and own a single-family home. In conjunction with the report, Berkeley Lab has published an updated accompanying set of online data visualizations that allow users to further explore the underlying data. Berkeley Lab is also offering related analytical support to states, local agencies, and other organizations on issues related to solar adoption among low-to-moderate income households; requests for analytical support may be submitted through this online form.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Molecular Cursor Caliper: A Fluorescent Sensor for Dicarboxylate Dianions

We report herein the fluorescent sensing of both aromatic and linear saturated dicarboxylate anions (DC 2- ) (as their tetrabutylammonium salts) with different lengths and shapes in acetonitrile using a single fluorescent probe, i.e., the bis-calix[4]pyrrole-appended 9,14-diphenyl-9,14-dihydrodibenzo[a,c]phe¬nazine (DPAC-bisC4P) incorporating a vibration-induced emission (VIE) phenazine core. Fluorescence titration studies revealed that treating DPAC-bisC4P with dicarboxylate guests capable of forming pseudo-macrocyclic host–guest complexes via multiple hydrogen bonding interactions between the dicarboxylates and calix[4]pyrrole moieties, led to a blue-shift in the emission of the phenazine core. The binding-based fluorescence tuning features of DPAC-bisC4P allows the underlying binding events and inferred structural changes to be monitored in the form of different chromaticity outputs. The analyte-induced dif-ferences in the fluorescence response to DC 2- cover a wide range within the chromaticity diagram and can be visualized readily. The pre-sent system thus functions as a rudimentary dicarboxylate anion sensor. It illustrates the potential benefits associated with combining a tunable VIE core with non-covalent binding interactions and thus sets the stage for the development of new fluorescent chemosensors where a single chemical entity responds to different analytes with a high level of tunability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

MetaPop: a pipeline for macro- and microdiversity analyses and visualization of microbial and viral metagenome-derived populations

Abstract Background Microbes and their viruses are hidden engines driving Earth’s ecosystems from the oceans and soils to humans and bioreactors. Though gene marker approaches can now be complemented by genome-resolved studies of inter-(macrodiversity) and intra-(microdiversity) population variation, analytical tools to do so remain scattered or under-developed. Results Here, we introduce MetaPop, an open-source bioinformatic pipeline that provides a single interface to analyze and visualize microbial and viral community metagenomes at both the macro - and microdiversity levels. Macrodiversity estimates include population abundances and α- and β-diversity. Microdiversity calculations include identification of single nucleotide polymorphisms, novel codon-constrained linkage of SNPs, nucleotide diversity ( π and θ ), and selective pressures (pN/pS and Tajima’s D ) within and fixation indices ( F ST ) between populations. MetaPop will also identify genes with distinct codon usage. Following rigorous validation, we applied MetaPop to the gut viromes of autistic children that underwent fecal microbiota transfers and their neurotypical peers. The macrodiversity results confirmed our prior findings for viral populations (microbial shotgun metagenomes were not available) that diversity did not significantly differ between autistic and neurotypical children. However, by also quantifying microdiversity, MetaPop revealed lower average viral nucleotide diversity ( π ) in autistic children. Analysis of the percentage of genomes detected under positive selection was also lower among autistic children, suggesting that higher viral π in neurotypical children may be beneficial because it allows populations to better “bet hedge” in changing environments. Further, comparisons of microdiversity pre- and post-FMT in autistic children revealed that the delivery FMT method (oral versus rectal) may influence viral activity and engraftment of microdiverse viral populations, with children who received their FMT rectally having higher microdiversity post-FMT. Overall, these results show that analyses at the macro level alone can miss important biological differences. Conclusions These findings suggest that standardized population and genetic variation analyses will be invaluable for maximizing biological inference, and MetaPop provides a convenient tool package to explore the dual impact of macro - and microdiversity across microbial communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Electronic Visualization Laboratory's 50th Anniversary Retrospective: Look to the Future, Build on the Past

September 2023 marks the 50th anniversary of the Electronic Visualization Laboratory (EVL) at University of Illinois Chicago (UIC). EVL's introduction of the CAVE Automatic Virtual Environment in 1992, the first widely replicated, projection-based, walk-in, virtual-reality (VR) system in the world, put EVL at the forefront of collaborative, immersive data exploration and analytics. However, the journey did not begin then. Since its founding in 1973, EVL has been developing tools and techniques for real-time, interactive visualizations—pillars of VR. But EVL's culture is also relevant to its successes, as it has always been an interdisciplinary lab that fosters teamwork, where each person's expertise contributes to the development of the necessary tools, hardware, system software, applications, and human interface models to solve problems. Over the years, as multidisciplinary collaborations evolved and advanced scientific instruments and data resources were distributed globally, the need to access and share data and visualizations while working with colleagues, local and remote, synchronous and asynchronous, also became important fields of study. This paper is a retrospective of EVL's past 50 years that surveys the many networked, immersive, collaborative visualization and VR systems and applications it developed and deployed, as well as lessons learned and future plans.

Johnson, Andrew E.↗

Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework’s abstraction of “challenges to mitigation” and “challenges to adaptation” to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support “bottom-up” scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗