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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations This dataset contains model projections of new data center facilities in the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2035 using the CERF – Data Centers model. Data center locations are modeled across four data center electricity demand growth scenarios (low, moderate, high, higher) and five market gravity scenarios (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%). Projected locations are intended to be regional representations of feasible siting locations in the future to assess potential grid and water stress impacts. The data center load growth scenarios correspond with the rates outlined in EPRI (2024) and include 3.71%, 5%, 10%, and 15% annual growth of electricity demand for data centers from 2023 values in 37 states across the CONUS. Market gravity scenarios correspond to the relative importance of proximity to data center markets or high population areas compared to locational cost in the siting algorithm. 0% market gravity means that siting decisions were entirely determined by the locational cost in each feasible location. 100% market gravity means that only market proximity was considered when siting. Other scenarios have weight placed on both components where total weight always equals 100%. Locational cost is dependent on facility cooling type and corresponding electricity cost, taxes, and other factors. Facility cooling type is spatially determined where high water stress and/or areas with high summer wet bulb temperatures are assumed to operate with mechanical cooling for a higher fraction of the year rather than evaporative cooling. Feasible data center siting areas are based on geospatial suitability raster data developed with open-source information. The following areas are excluded from siting: Areas within 300 m of a federal airport runway or within an airport area boundary Waterbodies Areas with slope >16% Areas susceptible to sinkholes High coastal or inland flood risk areas Local, state, and federal parks, leisure areas, and cemeteries Areas >2 km away from electric substations Areas >5 km away from a municipal water supplier service area Areas >2 km away from high-speed fiber provider service territory USGS Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US) GAP status 1, 2, or 3 areas US National Parks Wetlands USFWS critical habitats BIA land areas Railroads, major roadways, and minor roadways Military areas and training grounds NLCD developed lands Areas >0.8 km (0.5 miles) from NLCD developed lands Because we use open-source information, proprietary information that can influence siting decisions such as individual tax agreements with cities, detailed fiber line connectivity, electric grid power capacity agreements, and others, are not currently accounted for in the modeling process. Using specific building locations and footprints in the dataset for local planning purposes is not advised. Technical Information Geospatial data is provided in geojson format using the Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) coordinate reference system. The datasets contain the following parameters: id - unique identification number within given scenario file growth_scenario – data center demand growth scenario market_gravity_weight – market gravity weight scenario (%) region – name of region (i.e., US State) total_cost_million_usd – locational siting cost ($million) campus_size_square_ft – total land acquired for data center facility (square ft) data_center_it_power_mw – IT power of data center facility (MW) mechanical_cooling_frac – fraction of year when data center uses mechanical cooling system water_cooling_frac– fraction of year when data center uses evaporative cooling system cooling_energy_demand_mwh – total annual facility energy demand for cooling (MWh) cooling_water_demand_mgy – total annual facility water demand for cooling (MG) cooling_water_consumption_mgy – total annual facility water consumed (MG) normalized_locational_cost – normalized total locational cost score for location normalized_gravity_score – normalized market gravity score for location weighted_siting_score – total weighted siting score of locational cost and gravity score geometry – polygon geometry of facility Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4.0 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗
DOE OSTI2024

SGD-OD: investigating the potential oxygen demand of submarine groundwater discharge in coastal systems

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) supplies nutrients, carbon, metals, and radionuclide tracers to estuarine and coastal waters. One aspect of SGD that is poorly recognized is its direct effect on dissolved oxygen (DO) demand in receiving waters, denoted here as SGD-OD. Sulfate-mediated oxidation of organic matter in salty coastal aquifers produces numerous reduced byproducts including sulfide, ammonia, dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen, methane, and reduced metals. When these byproducts are introduced to estuarine and coastal systems by SGD and are oxidized, they may substantially reduce the DO concentration in receiving waters and impact organisms living there. We consider six estuarine and coastal sites where SGD derived fluxes of reduced byproducts are well documented. Using data from these sites we present a semiquantitative model to estimate the effect of these byproducts on DO in the receiving waters. Without continued aeration with atmospheric oxygen, the study sites would have experienced periodic hypoxic conditions due to SGD-OD. The presence of H2S supplied by SGD could also impact organisms. This process is likely prevalent in other systems worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Moisture-driven CO 2 pump for direct air capture

Direct Air Capture, the chemical separation of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from air, is considered a necessary approach to generate negative carbon emissions and in turn limit global warming, though energetic and monetary costs must continue to decline to meet the needed gigaton scale. The promise of energy-efficient and continuous carbon dioxide membrane separation has only recently been investigated with the development of facilitated chemical transport and novel electrochemically driven methods. This work demonstrates the potential for continuous pumping of CO 2 from air using commercial anion exchange membranes driven solely by a water vapor gradient. A reactive transport model that couples ionic transport with moisture sensitive bicarbonate chemistry in charged polymers, also termed moisture swing sorption, was developed alongside experimentally measured equilibrium and transport properties of CO 2 and water vapor in Fumasep FAA-3 to determine the mass transport limits of such a system. The results show that the commercial membrane is kinetically limited by the moisture sensitive chemistry, enabling a CO 2 current of 1.1 μmol/m 2 • s. In diffusion limited materials, a CO 2 pumping flux can reach 11 μmol/m 2 • s in and peak performance is expected with a dry air relative humidity around 50% pumping into a saturated water vapor permeate. In all configurations, water loss becomes the major cost in such a separation and must be managed through optimal polymer design or water recovery mechanisms. The work demonstrates the applicability of a new driving force, the evaporation of water, to meet the energetic demand of CO 2 separation from air.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Contrasting long-term temperature trends reveal minor changes in projected potential evapotranspiration in the US Midwest

Abstract Warming generally leads to increased evaporative demand, altering the amount of water needed for growing crops. For the Midwest, some studies have suggested that reaching yield targets by 2050 will not be possible without additional precipitation or large expansion of irrigation. Here, we show that this claim is not supported by the historical summer climate trends, which indicate that the warming of daily average temperatures is largely driven by increases in minimum temperatures, while maximum temperatures have decreased. This has translated into a net decrease in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and potential evapotranspiration (PET). With the increasing rainfall, this suggests that crop water deficits have likely become less frequent in the region despite the warming climate. By projecting these trends into 2050 and ancillary use of a crop model, we estimate minor changes in PET that would have minimal effects on corn yields (<6%) under persistence of these trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrated Assessment Modeling of Grid Resilience: GCAM-to-PCM Scoping

Deep decarbonization towards a net-zero emissions future and the associated growth in power demand, renewables, and changes in water availability will require significant evolution in grid planning. Many obstacles threaten the viability of near-term generation capacity build out, including the need for large-scale transmission expansion. Current very-long term planning tools do not adequately model physical representations of economic dispatch and system topology down to inter- and intra-regional transmission and distribution infrastructure. This project attempts to fill that gap.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microbe to Microbiome: A Paradigm Shift in the Application of Microorganisms for Sustainable Agriculture

Light, water and healthy soil are three essential natural resources required for agricultural productivity. Industrialization of agriculture has resulted in intensification of cropping practices using enormous amounts of chemical pesticides and fertilizers that damage these natural resources. Therefore, there is a need to embrace agriculture practices that do not depend on greater use of fertilizers and water to meet the growing demand of global food requirements. Plants and soil harbor millions of microorganisms, which collectively form a microbial community known as the microbiome. An effective microbiome can offer benefits to its host, including plant growth promotion, nutrient use efficiency, and control of pests and phytopathogens. Therefore, there is an immediate need to bring functional potential of plant-associated microbiome and its innovation into crop production. In addition to that, new scientific methodologies that can track the nutrient flux through the plant, its resident microbiome and surrounding soil, will offer new opportunities for the design of more efficient microbial consortia design. It is now increasingly acknowledged that the diversity of a microbial inoculum is as important as its plant growth promoting ability. Not surprisingly, outcomes from such plant and soil microbiome studies have resulted in a paradigm shift away from single, specific soil microbes to a more holistic microbiome approach for enhancing crop productivity and the restoration of soil health. Herein, we have reviewed this paradigm shift and discussed various aspects of benign microbiome-based approaches for sustainable agriculture.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Energy Saving Estimation of ASHRAE Guideline 36 Supervisory Setpoint Reset Controls in a Commercial Large Office Building

Designing, commissioning, and retrofitting HVAC control systems for energy efficiency is crucial, but the use of ad-hoc control sequences by designers and contractors, based on scattered information, results in diverse and sub-optimal sequences. ASHRAE Guideline 36 (G36) addresses the challenge by providing standardized, rule-based HVAC control sequences that prioritize energy efficiency. However, there is limited evaluation of their energy performance at the building level, with only a few studies primarily focused on HVAC airside systems in small-to-medium-sized commercial buildings. In this study, the energy performance of ASHRAE Guideline 36 control sequences was assessed using a large office building emulator in Chicago. The emulator features a central plant system with multiple chillers and boilers as well as multiple variable air volume (VAV) systems with terminal reheat. To achieve a high-fidelity representation, we developed a Spawn-of-EnergyPlus-based model for the large office building, maintaining the DOE prototype large office building setup but substituting the HVAC system with its Modelica counterpart. This substitution ensures that the building thermal load, HVAC system's dynamics, and detailed control sequences are all accurately represented. The study involved evaluating and implementing control strategies outlined in ASHRAE Guideline 36-2021 to replace conventional controls. These strategies include the demand-based supply air temperature and duct static pressure setpoint reset and the request logic for demand-based reset of chilled/hot water supply temperature setpoints and pipe static pressure setpoints. Energy performance was evaluated under various load conditions, including cooling, heating, and transitional seasons, both for individual control strategies and in combination. The results indicate that the collective control strategies retrofit yield greater energy savings than the sum of individual strategies, highlighting the synergistic benefits of incorporating both airside and plant-side control retrofits. Additionally, energy savings of up to 41% in the heating season, 18% in the shoulder season, and 20 % in the cooling season were observed compared to baseline control while maintaining the thermal comfort level.

ASHRAE Guideline 36, Commercial buildings, Control↗
DOE OSTI2020

Utility Energy Service Contract Guide: A Resource for Contracting Officers Working on UESC Projects

A Utility Energy Service Contract (UESC) is a limited-source contract between a federal agency and serving utility for energy management services including energy and water efficiency improvements and demand-reduction services. In a UESC, the Contracting Officer (CO) will lead the acquisition effort, supported by technically knowledgeable staff working closely with the utility, to assess potential, investigate technical and economic feasibility, and ensure a fair and reasonable price for design and implementation of the project. The UESC Guide is a compilation of samples and templates developed as a resource to help COs implement Task Orders (TOs) for UESCs under existing U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) Areawide Contracts (AWC). All samples and templates provided in this guide were derived from actual UESC project contract documents and will be available for download on FEMP’s website at https://www.energy.gov/node/850656. Templates in Microsoft Word can be modified to address each agency’s unique acquisition process.

Federal Energy Management Program↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Fuels Campaign Time-at-Temperature Irradiation Campaign and Post-Irradiation Examination Plan

With increasing per capita energy consumption and rapidly growing energy consumption predicted for data centers, the US faces challenges in meeting projected energy demands. The current administration is attempting to accelerate the deployment of new nuclear construction by providing significant investments in advanced nuclear and by modernizing regulatory approaches for the licensing new reactors. However, enabling extended power uprates (EPUs) for the current nuclear reactor fleet would provide a shorter-term solution to better calibrate near-term energy generation capacity to the ever-growing energy demands of the modern era. One pathway to achieve power uprates is to increase the operational window by reassessing fuel safety limits around anticipated transients. Existing light-water reactors (LWRs) utilize a targeted operational window with well-defined operational efficiencies, yet this window is also often bound by conservative safety limits that result in suboptimal operational performance. For example, the operation of the existing fleet is highly constrained by safeguards to operation related to anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs), which are moderate-frequency transients expected with a frequency greater than 0.01 per reactor-year. These AOOs include temperature excursions where the critical heat flux for the system is exceeded, resulting in a departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) at the cladding surface. This DNB event is a thermohydraulic condition that, with current conservative fuel safety limits, results in the fuel rods being classified as “failed,” meaning that the cladding may not be returned to service.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of thermal energy storage with electrified heating and cooling in a cold climate

Ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) have been shown to be an effective means of decarbonizing building heating and cooling, but the operation of these systems at scale presents challenges to sites and the grid due to increases in peak demand. Here, in this study, we investigate how the use of Thermal Energy Storage (TES), in the form of stratified water storage, could reduce the peak daily demand associated with GSHP systems and thus improve their cost effectiveness. This system was compared to a Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plant, to investigate the potential cost and emissions impacts of electrification on large energy users transitioning from high efficiency fossil fuel equipment. This study builds on previous research by using a significant campus area, and investigating the various impacts of an electrified system versus a state of the art fossil fuel system. An established method of TRNSYS modeling is used for the heat pumps and borehole heat exchangers (BHEs), along with the TES. The GSHP system with TES is modeled to follow industry standards and sized to provide an optimal balance of capital and operating costs. Costs were investigated for a unique large energy user rate structure, as well as for a more common generalized rate structure. The results show that the addition of TES to the GSHP system could reduce operating costs by 4.5%, but still incurs a 5.64% cost increase from the baseline CHP system. It is also shown, however, that a tactical integration of heat pumps into the CHP system is the most cost effective solution, only increasing the operating costs by 4.71%. Likewise, the impacts of different rate structures are highlighted, with the TES only resulting in 0.75% cost savings under the generalized utility rate. Furthermore, it is shown that thermal storage has great potential for demand reduction, with the addition of storage incurring a decrease of 7–22% in annual peak demand kW, dependent on the rate structure.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Disentangling the Effects of Vapor Pressure Deficit and Soil Water Availability on Canopy Conductance in a Seasonal Tropical Forest During the 2015 El Niño Drought

In land models used in Earth system models, vegetation water stress is heuristically related to soil water matric potential, and root water uptake in soil layers is simply proportional to root density to meet the transpiration demand. The efficiency of roots utilizing deeper soil water under water stress cannot be well represented, but it is of critical importance for transpiration regulation and carbon flux. To improve modeling of tropical forest response to drought, a plant hydrodynamic scheme (HYDRO), adapted from a trait-based model in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), has been implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) to represent the hydraulic dynamics and root water uptake strategy. The adapted model conforms to the big-leaf photosynthesis model in ELM. Vegetation water stress in the model is a function of prognostic leaf water potential and is used to regulate stomatal conductance. Point simulations were performed at two tropical forest sites in the Amazon and Panama. Model sensitivity to the numerical solver, plant hydraulic traits, soil properties, and atmospheric forcing has been evaluated. Our results showed that, even though water stress factors calculated at our study sites using HYDRO are comparable to that simulated by the heuristic water stress model, soil moisture prediction is improved with soil water redistributions through roots. Simulated results using HYDRO is not as sensitive to plant hydraulic traits measured for different tree species as to the soil properties and atmospheric forcing. Simplified numerical solver may cause inaccuracy as to where roots uptake water. This study suggests that plant hydrodynamic representation is critical for improved simulations of soil moisture under water stresses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Energy efficiency and renewable energy utilization in desalination systems

Desalination technologies and industry have advanced significantly in the past two decades to meet the growing freshwater demands stimulated by the compounding issues of both water quality and quantity in many regions of the world. As desalination processes are energy demanding, there have been many efforts dedicated to improve energy-efficiency of the process units, enhance energy conservation and recovery, and increase renewable energy integration in desalination plants. This review article highlights recent key advances and discusses possible venues for further development in desalination energy portfolio to reduce specific energy consumption and, via integration with solar energy, to minimize the environmental footprint associated with freshwater production. First, an overview of current desalination technologies and their energy requirements are presented followed by a discussion on opportunities for improving energy efficiency and energy recovery in both membrane and thermal desalination technologies. Then, various combinations of renewable energy driven desalination plants are discussed with some recent highlights in solar energy driven membrane, thermal and hybrid desalination processes. Technological readiness levels for novel desalination processes, their perceived impact and expected near-future developments in renewable energy integrated desalination technologies are presented. Lastly, the potential for solar driven desalination as a cost-competitive freshwater supply alternative is discussed

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of New Reactor Core Configuration for Power Uprate - Fuel Reload & Heat Processing Analyses, Core Design, System Safety Assessments, and Fuel Performance Analyses

With the passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act in 2021 and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022, the United States stands at a critical juncture for the future of nuclear power. These landmark policies provide significant support for clean energy initiatives, positioning nuclear power as a key component of the nation’s strategy to reduce carbon emissions and achieve energy security. This growing emphasis on nuclear energy is driven by the need for reliable, low-carbon power sources as the country transitions away from fossil fuels. Federal policy, along with increasing state-level support, is encouraging investment in nuclear technology advancements to meet these demands. Building new nuclear power plants (NPPs), however, presents significant challenges due to high costs and long construction timelines. As a result, increasing the power output of existing NPPs through power uprates has emerged as a more feasible and cost-effective strategy. One key area of advancement is the development of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF), such as chromium-coated zirconium alloy cladding, which offers enhanced material performance, enabling power uprates in light water reactors (LWRs). Given the growing demand for nuclear energy fueled by federal policies and state initiatives, it is essential to evaluate the feasibility and benefits of significant power uprates in existing pressurized water reactors (PWRs) using advanced fuel technologies. The introduction of ATF concepts opens new opportunities for safely and economically achieving these power increases. Assessing whether these innovations can support substantial power uprates while maintaining operational safety is crucial to maximizing the potential of the nation’s existing nuclear infrastructure. This project aims to explore how power uprates can be achieved by boosting reactor thermal power output and optimizing reactor core design, while ensuring the safety and economic viability of NPPs. Specifically, it will focus on demonstrating the technical and economic feasibility of power uprates in a PWR using low 5-10% enrichment uranium (LEU+) high burnup (HBU) fuel combined with ATF concepts. In fiscal year 2024 (FY24), the research and development focus on building foundational models and conducting multi-physics performance and safety analyses to support the power uprate. The findings of the study would be shared through LWRS Seasonal Meetings, conferences and workshops with utility companies and researchers. These also serve as a basis for further study of fuel reloading optimization with ATF claddings.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reinforcement-Learning-Based Smart Water Heater Control: An Actual Deployment

Utilizing smart control algorithms for electric water heaters (EWHs) is essential for fully harnessing the demand response (DR) potential of EWHs. For this reason, the use of reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms for EWHs has received increasing attention in recent years. However, existing RL approaches are either simulation-based or use pretrained RL agents. To this end, this paper presents the real-world deployment of a set of model-free RL approaches that aim to minimize the electricity cost of a EWH under a time-of-use electricity pricing policy using standard DR commands (e.g., shed, load up). The experiment results showed that the RL agents can help save electricity cost in the range of 11% to 14% compared to the baseline operation. This study demonstrated that RL-based EWH controllers can be deployed in real world without any prior training and can still save electricity cost.

deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Competitiveness Assessment of Decarbonizing Electricity and Process Heat Supply to a Campus with a Small Nuclear Reactor

This paper analyzes the competitiveness of siting a small nuclear reactor to support decarbonization of sites requiring tens of MW of electricity and/or process heat to support centralized heating and cooling system. This paper focuses on campuses as representative of sites with collections of buildings and research facilities with decarbonization needs represented by buildings heating, and electricity consumption by electrical loads which may include cooling via chilled water (e.g., for air conditioning and to cool down computer clusters). A nuclear reactor can be considered to decarbonize a site’s high-temperature steam generation used mostly for building heating needs, climate control, and hot water, by supplying process heat capabilities, while electricity decarbonization would be achieved mostly by the grid. However, a secondary application can be considered to maximize reactor utilization and avoid ramping down the reactor if the steam demand varies significantly throughout the year. Chilled water generation through steam-driven systems was identified as an attractive secondary option for the site analyzed, due to potential for plant design simplification, while electricity generation could be considered as well to reduce electricity purchases for a wider range of site applications. For a campus with peak 60MW thermal power demand, a small nuclear reactor with similar thermal power rating would almost eliminate CO2 emissions from steam generation and reduce electricity imports for chilled water production. A preliminary techno-economic feasibility study shows that a small nuclear reactor design that is optimized to support process heat can represent an economically feasible option when compared with other decarbonization alternatives.

Stauff, Nicolas E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

MSD CoP Webinar: Representing Climate Impacts in Scenaros

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Scenarios of future emissions and land use have been most commonly produced without accounting for the effects that climate impacts linked to those emissions and land use changes may have. The questions of how important such impacts could be, at the regional or global scale, has become an increasingly cogent one. Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we implement climate impacts on water supply, agricultural productivity, and energy demand driven by climatic impact drivers whose evolution over the 21st century is representative of a climate consistent with GCAM's reference scenario and compare the output to the reference at both regional and global scales. We show that the impacts from the version of GCAM that uses GDP as an exogenous input are not sufficient to bend emission pathways at the global scale. However, we see effects emerge at the regional scale in terms of emissions, among other metrics linked to water, land and energy. We expect the impacts to become more significant at an aggregate, global scale in a forthcoming version of the model with endogenous GDP. Meanwhile, we document the mechanisms that drive the difference at regional scales which could still be significant in their impacts for individual economies and populations. Presenters: Dr. Claudia Tebaldi (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) Moderator(s): Jennifer Morris (MSD CoP SSG member), Patrick Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: November 5, 2024 from 1 PM - 2:15 PM ET

Climate Scenarios↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrated hydrological, power system and economic modelling of climate impacts on electricity demand and cost

Impacts of climate-related water stress and temperature changes can cascade through energy systems, although models have yet to capture this compounding of effects. Here, we employ a coupled water–power–economy model to capture these important interactions in a study of the exceedance of water temperature thresholds for power generation in the western United States. We find that not all reductions in reserve electricity-generation capacity result in impacts, and that when they occur, intermittent interruptions in electricity supply at critical times of the day, week and year account for much of the economic impacts. Finally, we find that impacts may be in different locations from the original water stress. Herein, we estimate that the consumption loss can be up to 0.3% annually and the drivers identified in coupled modelling can increase the average cost of electricity by up to 3%. Integrated models will be needed to capture the cascading effects of climate change through climatic, water, energy and economic systems. Webster et al. now develop a coupled hydrologic–power-production–economic model to estimate water-stress impacts on electricity cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The evolution of symbiotic innovation, water, and agricultural supply chains

Abstract The water literature has mainly investigated the diversion and distribution of water from the source to the end users or the utilization of water at the farm level in crop production. This paper presents a supply chain perspective that links the innovation supply chain of water delivery and irrigation with the complete water supply chain to the crop and the crop supply chains. These supply chains are symbiotic. Changes in the demand for crops, agronomic technology, and knowledge about water will modify the water infrastructure, irrigation technology, land‐use and crop production patterns, and the pricing of water and related commodities. The parameters that guide investment in water innovation and the design of the water supply chain depend on political, economic, and technological considerations that have coevolved over time with water and crop systems. Evidence from California and elsewhere supports the findings of the paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗