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NASA NTRS1982

Soviet National Middle Atmosphere Program

Soviet national MAP program comprises seven projects: lower thermosphere (structure and dynamics); high latitude energetic sources and their effect on the structure and dynamics of the upper atmosphere under conditions of the polar night; climate of the stratosphere and mesosphere (effects of various energetic sources on its formation); winter variability in the lower ionosphere; noctilucent clouds (climatology, dynamics, nature, and genesis); wave processes and structure and dynamics of the stratosphere and mesosphere; and dynamics of the ozone layer.

Danilov, A. D.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Coupling Processes Between Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate

This is the final report. The overall objective of this project is to improve the understanding of coupling processes among atmospheric chemistry, aerosol and climate, all important for quantitative assessments of global change. Among our priority are changes in ozone and stratospheric sulfate aerosol, with emphasis on how ozone in the lower stratosphere would respond to natural or anthropogenic changes. The work emphasizes two important aspects: (1) AER's continued participation in preparation of, and providing scientific input for, various scientific reports connected with assessment of stratospheric ozone and climate. These include participation in various model intercomparison exercises as well as preparation of national and international reports. and (2) Continued development of the AER three-wave interactive model to address how the transport circulation will change as ozone and the thermal properties of the atmosphere change, and assess how these new findings will affect our confidence in the ozone assessment results.

Ko, Malcolm K. W.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Representations of the Stratospheric Polar Vortices in Versions 1 and 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM)

This study will document the behavior of the polar vortices in two versions of the GEOS CCM. Both versions of the model include the same stratospheric chemistry, They differ in the underlying circulation model. Version 1 of the GEOS CCM is based on the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 4, general circulation model which includes the finite-volume (Lin-Rood) dynamical core and physical parameterizations from Community Climate Model, Version 3. GEOS CCM Version 2 is based on the GEOS-5 GCM that includes a different tropospheric physics package. Baseline simulations of both models, performed at two-degree spatial resolution, show some improvements in Version 2, but also some degradation, In the Antarctic, both models show an over-persistent stratospheric polar vortex with late breakdown, but the year-to-year variations that are overestimated in Version I are more realistic in Version 2. The implications of this for the interactions with tropospheric climate, the Southern Annular Mode, will be discussed. In the Arctic both model versions show a dominant dynamically forced variabi;ity, but Version 2 has a persistent warm bias in the low stratosphere and there are seasonal differences in the simulations. These differences will be quantified in terms of climate change and ozone loss. Impacts of model resolution, using simulations at one-degree and half-degree, and changes in physical parameterizations (especially the gravity wave drag) will be discussed.

Pawson, S.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Future Changes in Major Stratospheric Warmings in CCMI Models

Major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) are one of the most important phenomena of wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability. They consist of a warming of the Arctic stratosphere and a deceleration of the polar night jet, triggered by an anomalously high injection of tropospheric wave activity into the stratosphere. Due to the relevance and the impact of MSWs on the tropospheric circulation, several model studies have investigated their potential responses to climate change. However, a wide range of results has been obtained, extending from a future increase in the frequency of MSWs to a decrease. These discrepancies might be explained by different factors such as a competition of radiative and dynamical contributors with opposite effects on the Arctic polar vortex, biases of models to reproduce the related processes, or the metric chosen for the identification of MSWs. In this study, future changes in wintertime Arctic stratospheric variability are examined in order to obtaina more precise picture of future changes in the occurrence of MSWs. In particular, transient REFC2 simulations of different CCMs involved in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) are used. These simulations extend from 1960 to 2100 and include forcings by halogens and greenhouse gases following the specifications of the CCMI-REF-C2 scenario. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea-ice distributions are either prescribed from coupled climate model integrations or calculated internally in the case of fully coupled atmosphere-ocean CCMs. Potential changes in the frequency and main characteristics of MSWs in the future are investigated with special focus on the dependence of the results on the criterion for the identification of MSWs and the tropospheric forcing of these phenomena.

Chemistry-Climate Modeling↗

NASA NTRS2019

Analysis of the Global Microwave Polarization Data of Clouds

Information about the characteristics of ice particles in clouds is necessary for improving our understanding of the states, processes, and subsequent modeling of clouds and precipitation for numerical weather prediction and climate analysis. Two NASA passive microwave radiometers, the satellite-borne Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) and the aircraft-borne Conical Scanning Millimeter-Wave Imaging Radiometer (CoSMIR), measure vertically and horizontally polarized microwaves emitted by clouds (including precipitating particles) and Earth’s surface below. In this paper, GMI (or CoSMIR) data are analyzed with CloudSat (or aircraft-borne radar) data to find polarized difference (PD) signals not affected by the surface, thereby obtaining the information on ice particles. Statistical analysis of 4 years of GMI and CloudSat data, for the first time, reveals that optically thick clouds contribute positively to GMI PD at 166GHz over all the latitudes and their positive magnitude of 166-GHz GMI PD varies little with latitude. This result suggests that horizontally oriented ice crystals in thick clouds are common from the tropics to high latitudes, which contrasts the result of Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) that horizontally oriented ice crystals are rare in optically thin ice clouds.

Xiping Zeng↗

NASA NTRS2019

Forcing Factors Affecting Sea Level Changes at the Coast

We review the characteristics of sea level variability at the coast focussing on how it differs from the variability in the nearby deep ocean. Sea level variability occurs on all timescales, with processes at higher frequencies tending to have a larger magnitude at the coast due to resonance and other dynamics. In the case of some processes, such as the tides, the presence of the coast and the shallow waters of the shelves results in the processes being considerably more complex than offshore. However, ‘coastal variability’ should not always be considered as ‘short spatial scale variability’ but can be the result of signals transmitted along the coast from 1000s km away. Fortunately, thanks to tide gauges being necessarily located at the coast, many aspects of coastal sea level variability can be claimed to be better understood than those in the deep ocean. Nevertheless, certain aspects of coastal variability remain under-researched, including how changes in some processes (e.g., wave setup, river runoff) may have contributed to the historical mean sea level records obtained from tide gauges which are now used routinely in large-scale climate research.

Philip L Woodworth↗

NASA NTRS2019

Forcing Factors Affecting Sea Level Changes at the Coast

We review the characteristics of sea level variability at the coast focussing on how it differs from the variability in the nearby deep ocean. Sea level variability occurs on all timescales, with processes at higher frequencies tending to have a larger magnitude at the coast due to resonance and other dynamics. In the case of some processes, such as the tides, the presence of the coast and the shallow waters of the shelves results in the processes being considerably more complex than offshore. However, ‘coastal variability’ should not always be considered as ‘short spatial scale variability’ but can be the result of signals transmitted along the coast from 1000s km away. Fortunately, thanks to tide gauges being necessar-ily located at the coast, many aspects of coastal sea level variability can be claimed to be better understood than those in the deep ocean. Nevertheless, certain aspects of coastal variability remain under-researched, including how changes in some processes (e.g., wave setup, river runoff) may have contributed to the historical mean sea level records obtained from tide gauges which are now used routinely in large-scale climate research.

Philip L. Woodworth↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ice Cloud Observations and Science using Submillimeter-Wave Radiometry

Submillimeter-wave radiometers provide vital information on ice clouds and precipitation. These data are key for improving weather forecasting, particularly for disruptive winter storms, and for better understanding climate. Our airborne radiometer will provide data that will allow us to better use data from upcoming space missions with these types of sensors.

Ian Adams↗

NASA NTRS1995

Interdecadal Variations in the Alaska Gyre

Climatic dynamic topography variations in the Alaska gyre during the period 1968-1990 are described with an objective analysis of more than 12000 STD and XBT stations, and COADS wind stress data Interannual the dynamic height and SST variations were correlated and were consistent with recently described large-scale climatic shifts in the North Pacific. The gyre was centered more to the east, circulation appeared stronger, and SST was lower during the early to mid-1970s than during the 1980s. The Aleutian low (NP and PNA indices) intensified during the interim, but the response did not appear as a gyre spinup. Instead, the associated wind stress anomalies forced a slowly varying dynamic height anomaly across the eastern and northern part of the gyre through Ekman convergence, which had the effect of displacing the gyre's low somewhat to the WSW in the 1980s. The wind curl spectrum was white, and the slow oceanic response was modeled as stochastic-forced climate variability with a simple first-order Markov autoregression process. Forcing was assumed to be Ekman pumping of the pycnocline, and the damping coefficient was estimated from the data to be approx. 1 yr. A hindcast with observed winds gave estimated dynamic height patterns similar to those observed, with a canonical correlation of 0.79 at 99% confidence. This response was weak in the western half of the gyre, where slow baroclinic variability may have been influenced by long Rossby wave propagation. A simple autoregression simulation using artificial white noise forcing shows the evolution of decadal variations similar in nature to those observed. This result, along with the low frequency correlation between dynamic height and SST, suggests that the upper-ocean climatic variability in this region is primarily wind forced.

Lagerloef, Gary S.E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulated Disruptions of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation has exhibited remarkable stability over the observational record—until a well-documented 2015/16 disruption and an emerging disruption in 2020/21. The possibility that disruptions are more frequent in a changing climate is important to consider, as the QBO affects predictability, stratospheric composition, and surface weather. However, this possibility is challenging to assess for a variety of reasons. For instance, the 2015/16 disruption has been attributed to anomalous easterly momentum flux from extratropical waves. By comparison, the 2020/21 disruption involves anomalous westerly forcing, less likely to originate from the same mechanism. We present a rich variety of QBO disruptions that spontaneously arise in integrations of the hightop NASA GISS Model E2.2. The disruptions loosely fall into several categories, some of which are analogous to the 2015/16 disruption and the 2020 disruption, as well as a previously undocumented possible disruption in 1988. Several factors appear to influence QBO disruptions in the model: natural variability, climate change, tropical SSTs, volcanic eruptions, and model physics/tuning. Although QBO representation is an ongoing challenge for models, the results point to a model-independent framework for assessment of disruptions.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation↗

NASA NTRS2000

Sensing Clouds via Spacecraft Radio Occultation Observations

The presence of clouds dramatically alters the opacity and radiative transfer within Earth's atmosphere at both short and long wavelengths. Knowledge of cloud top and base is needed to estimate the Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) to space and the net radiation at the surface from a given atmospheric profile. Satellite observations are required to provide the global perspective needed for climate. Cloud top pressure can be determined to some accuracy from spaceborne radiance measurements when cloud opacities are sufficiently large and cloud top temperatures are sufficiently low to readily them from the surface. Cloud base is particularly difficult to determine from space. The relatively small sensitivity of long wavelengths must be used to penetrate the clouds while at the same time providing sufficient sensitivity to detect the cloud base. We are studying the indirect sensitivity of radio occultation observations to clouds through their impact on the refractivity structure. The tradewind inversion is an excellent example where a very sharp refractivity structure coincides with the top of the tradewind cumulus and stratus clouds. In general, any cloud with sufficient IR opacity will have large transmissivity gradient at cloud top (base) which will result in large cooling (heating) which will create a thermal inversion at cloud top (base). Both liquid and ice clouds can reach this critical opacity. The thermal inversion and sharp change in specific humidity will cause a sharp change in the refractivity gradient which can be identified in the radio occultation results, particularly the signal amplitude. The occultations yield very accurate information on the height of such features. The heating at cloud base drives convection causing the air to follow a moist adiabat within the Cloud which further helps constrain the interpretation of the observations. The upward expansion of such opaque clouds due to convection may be an important mechanism supplying moisture into the upper troposphere. We will present simulations using high resolution radiosondes from field campaigns representing the expected signatures of such features. We will also present initial results of comparisons between GPS observations and GOES-derived cloud tops to assess the utility of this concept.

Kursinski, E. R.↗

NASA NTRS2002

The 1998-2000 SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes) Tropical Ozone Climatology: Stratospheric and Tropospheric Ozone Variability and the Zonal Wave-One - 2

This is the second 'reference' or 'archival' paper for the SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes) network and is a follow-on to the recently accepted paper with similar first part of title. The latter paper compared SHADOZ total ozone with satellite and ground-based instruments and showed that the equatorial wave-one in total ozone is in the troposphere. The current paper presents details of the wave-one structure and the first overview of tropospheric ozone variability over the southern Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Ocean basins. The principal new result is that signals of climate effects, convection and offsets between biomass burning seasonality and tropospheric ozone maxima suggest that dynamical factors are perhaps more important than pollution in determining the tropical distribution of tropospheric ozone. The SHADOZ data at ( ) are setting records in website visits and are the first time that the zonal view of tropical ozone structure has been recorded - thanks to the distribution of the 10 sites that make up this validation network.

Thompson, Anne M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Living with a Star: New Opportunities in Sun-Climate Research

Living With a Star is a NASA initiative employing the combination of dedicated spacecraft with targeted research and modeling efforts to improve what we know of solar effects of all kinds on the Earth and its surrounding space environment, with particular emphasis on those that have significant practical impacts on life and society. The highest priority among these concerns is the subject of this report: the potential effects of solar variability on regional and global climate, including the extent to which solar variability has contributed to the well-documented warming of the Earth in the last 100 years. Understanding how the climate system reacts to external forcing from the Sun will also greatly improve our knowledge of how climate will respond to other climate drivers, including those of anthropogenic origin. A parallel element of the LWS program addresses solar effects on space weather : the impulsive emissions of charged particles, short-wave electromagnetic radiation and magnetic disturbances in the upper atmosphere and near-Earth environment that also affect life and society. These include a wide variety of solar impacts on aeronautics, astronautics, electric power transmission, and national defense. Specific examples are (1) the impacts of potentially- damaging high energy radiation and atomic particles of solar origin on satellites and satellite operations, spacecraft electronics systems and components, electronic communications, electric power distribution grids, navigational and GPS systems, and high altitude aircraft; and (2) the threat of sporadic, high-energy solar radiation to astronauts and high altitude aircraft passengers and crews. Elements of the LWS program include an array of dedicated spacecraft in near- Earth and near-Sun orbits that will closely study and observe both the Sun itself and the impacts of its variations on the Earth's radiation belts and magnetosphere, the upper atmosphere, and ionosphere. These spacecraft, positioned to study and monitor changing conditions in the Sun-Earth neighborhood, will also serve as sentinels of solar storms and impulsive events.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2008

Cloud-System Resolving Models: Status and Prospects

Cloud-system resolving models (CRM), which are based on the nonhydrostatic equations of motion and typically have a grid-spacing of about a kilometer, originated as cloud-process models in the 1970s. This paper reviews the status and prospects of CRMs across a wide range of issues, such as microphysics and precipitation; interaction between clouds and radiation; and the effects of boundary-layer and surface-processes on cloud systems. Since CRMs resolve organized convection, tropical waves and the large-scale circulation, there is the prospect for several advances in both basic knowledge of scale-interaction requisite to parameterizing mesoscale processes in climate models. In superparameterization, CRMs represent convection, explicitly replacing many of the assumptions necessary in contemporary parameterization. Global CRMs have been run on an experimental basis, giving prospect to a new generation of climate weather prediction in a decade, and climate models due course. CRMs play a major role in the retrieval of surface-rain and latent heating from satellite measurements. Finally, enormous wide dynamic ranges of CRM simulations present new challenges for model validation against observations.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Quantum Annealing Computer Team Addresses Climate Change Predictability

The near confluence of the successful launch of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory2 on July 2, 2014 and the acceptance on August 20, 2015 by Google, NASA Ames Research Center and USRA of a 1152 qubit D-Wave 2X Quantum Annealing Computer (QAC), offered an exceptional opportunity to explore the potential of this technology to address the scientific prediction of global annual carbon uptake by land surface processes. At UMBC,we have collected and processed 20 months of global Level 2 light CO2 data as well as fluorescence data. In addition we have collected ARM data at 2sites in the US and Ameriflux data at more than 20 stations. J. Dorband has developed and implemented a multi-hidden layer Boltzmann Machine (BM) algorithm on the QAC. Employing the BM, we are calculating CO2 fluxes by training collocated OCO-2 level 2 CO2 data with ARM ground station tower data to infer to infer measured CO2 flux data. We generate CO2 fluxes with a regression analysis using these BM derived weights on the level 2 CO2 data for three Ameriflux sites distinct from the ARM stations. P. Gentine has negotiated for the access of K34 Ameriflux data in the Amazon and is applying a neural net to infer the CO2 fluxes. N. Talik validated the accuracy of the BM performance on the QAC against a restricted BM implementation on the IBM Softlayer Cloud with the Nvidia co-processors utilizing the same data sets. G. Nearing and K. Harrison have extended the GSFC LIS model with the NCAR Noah photosynthetic parameterization and have run a 10 year global prediction of the net ecosystem exchange. C. Pellisier is preparing a BM implementation of the Kalman filter data assimilation of CO2 fluxes. At UMBC, R. Prouty is conducting OSSE experiments with the LISNoah model on the IBM iDataPlex to simulate the impact of CO2 fluxes to improve the prediction of global annual carbon uptake. J. LeMoigne and D. Simpson have developed a neural net image registration system that will be used for MODIS ENVI and will be converted to a BM algorithm implementation on the QAC. The first integer adder has been implemented on the D-Wave 2X by A. Shehab that will perform HAAR wavelets for image compression of MODIS scenes. Finally, based on the next generations of QACs, we are preparing a 5-year performance road map on the scalability of the current QAC algorithms.

Science Data Processing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Observing Ice Phase Clouds and Precipitation with Millimeter- and Submillimeter-wave Radiometry during the IMPACTS field campaign: Algorithm Development for the Emerging Class of Microwave Radiometers

Millimeter- and submillimeter-wave (mmWave, submm) radiometers provide significant information content on atmospheric water in liquid, ice, and vapor phases. Recent sensors, such as the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) or the Temporal Experiment for Storms and Tropical Systems Technology – Demonstration (TEMPEST-D), use mmWave bands to improve estimation of ice-phase precipitation, and future missions, such as the Atmosphere Observing System (AOS), will extend to submm to provide additional information on thinner ice clouds, linking clouds and precipitation and therefore elucidating the links between weather, climate, and the water cycle. To support the expanded use of mmWave/submm radiometry and exploit the available information content on condensed water mass, we demonstrate ice and liquid water path retrievals for NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's airborne radiometers the Conical Scanning Millimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer (CoSMIR) and the Configurable Scanning Submillimeter-wave Instrument/Radiometer (CoSSIR, formerly the Compact Scanning Submillimeter Imaging Radiometer). The analysis is based on data collected during the Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Storms (IMPACTS) field campaign. A simulation study compares and contrasts retrievals for CoSMIR and CoSSIR, with CoSSIR demonstrating higher skill in ice retrievals, particularly for thin clouds, and the CoSMIR frequencies performing better for liquid. Additionally, we look at dual-polarized radiances observed by CoSMIR during the first two IMPACTS deployments to understand the polarization signatures induced by oriented hydrometeors. Results will be presented in the context of upcoming missions and sensors including AOS and the Ice Cloud Imager (ICI). We will describe the objectives for the expected first flight of the newly upgraded CoSSIR during the final IMPACTS deployment, and we will share novel science investigations we plan to undertake with CoSSIR's new capabilities. Popular Summary: Ice in clouds and falling snow is an important component of weather, climate, and water resources. To better use a new class of sensors that provide information on atmospheric ice, we developed an approach to measure ice clouds and falling snow using airborne data taken during the Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Storms (IMPACTS), a field campaign to study winter storms. We look at the results for two similar instruments to understand how those differences affect these measurements of clouds and snow, and we further investigate the information the sensors can provide on properties of the clouds and snow.

Ian S Adams↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Observing Ice Phase Clouds and Precipitation with Millimeter- and Submillimeter-wave Radiometry during the IMPACTS field campaign: Algorithm Development for the Emerging Class of Microwave Radiometers

Ian S Adams↗

NASA NTRS1999

Differences Between ERBE and CERES Tropical Means Fluxes: ENSO, Climate Change of Calibration?

Verner E. Soumi was the father of radiation budget measurements from space. He directed the team at the University of Wisconsin that developed the first radiation budget measurements on the Iota (Explorer VII) coverage) spacecraft in 1959. The first data published was from hand calculations of night-time long-wave fluxes, with absolute accuracy estimated as better than 10 percent, and the data shown as hand drawn maps with lines of equal "long-wave radiation loss, in Langleys per minute X 10(exp -3) (isolangleys)". The first comparisons of the new radiation data with nephanalyses showed that clouds dominated the radiation patterns. Soumi immediately proposed using the radiation fields to help understand the atmospheric heat sources necessary to drive the atmospheric circulation. This early work already pointed to the relationship between the outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere and the vertical flux divergence of infrared radiation within the atmosphere. In the next 30 years, global satellite observations of the radiation balance of the planet have advanced both in accuracy, stability, and in their ability to address cause and effect in the climate system. The purpose of the present paper is to examine early results of the new Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data on Tropical Rainfall Measuring System (TRMM) which started data collection in January, 1998. CERES is a direct descendant of the legacy of Soumi's foresight on understanding the global energetics using satellite observations of broadband radiation.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗