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Use of Stable Mercury Isotopes to Assess Mercury and Methylmercury Transformation and Transport across Critical Interfaces from the Molecular to the Watershed Scale (Final Report)

This project titled “Use of Stable Mercury Isotopes to Assess Mercury and Methylmercury Transformation and Transport across Critical Interfaces from the Molecular to the Watershed Scale” represents a collaborative effort between the University of Michigan (Jason Demers, PI) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (Scott Brooks, co-I). Much has been learned about mercury (Hg) cycling in stream ecosystems, and East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) in particular, through decades of previous research. Nevertheless, some of the most fundamental questions regarding the sources of bioavailable Hg and its transformation to toxic methylmercury (MeHg) have remained unanswered. These fundamental questions include: (1) what are the sources and biogeochemical processes that lead to the input of dissolved Hg to stream water across critical subsurface interfaces within stream ecosystems, and EFPC in particular? and (2) what are the sources and biogeochemical processes that control the production and fate of bioaccumulative MeHg within stream ecosystems, and in EFPC in particular? To address these fundamental questions, our project aimed to couple laboratory experiments and field observations, both utilizing natural abundance Hg stable isotope techniques, to identify the processes responsible for generating mobile, bioavailable dissolved Hg from recalcitrant legacy sources within critical subsurface zones (e.g., streambed hyporheic zone, riparian floodplain subsurface). We used the isotopic signature of this bioavailable dissolved Hg to track its mobilization across these critical interfaces in order to link diffuse subsurface sources of dissolved Hg with increases in surface water dissolved Hg flux measured at the watershed scale. Additionally, our research aimed to determine the isotopic composition of MeHg within these same critical subsurface zones. We directly assessed the isotopic composition of MeHg within biota in order to gain insight into which subsurface sources of inorganic Hg and toxic MeHg are available for bioaccumulation within the EFPC ecosystem. Net fluxes of dissolved Hg along the flow path of EFPC were shown to vary spatially and temporally. In the Upper EFPC, within the Y12 boundary, stream water flux of dissolved Hg consistently decreased between the outfall and the downstream boundary of Y12 (57% ± 29%, 1SD). Within the Upper EFPC, an assessment of Hg isotopic composition suggested that losses were strongly reaction-driven, although isotopic diagnostics did not conform to any known processes. Downstream of Y12, in the upper reach of the Lower EFPC, dissolved Hg fluxes tended to increase during the dormant season (net gain of 11-120%), and decrease during the growing season (net loss of 23% +/- 18%, 1SD). In the downstream-most reach of Lower EFPC, dissolved Hg fluxes increased by 12-108% in 9 out of 10 monthly assessments. Overall, diffuse fluxes from the non-Y12 watershed accounted for 34% (+/- 17%, 1SD) of all dissolved Hg exported during base flow. Within Lower EFPC, an assessment of Hg isotopic composition was consistent with the contribution of diffuse Hg inputs from high-concentration hotspots within riparian floodplains and streambed hyporheic pore water. To investigate remobilization of recalcitrant Hg from legacy sediment sources, we developed procedures that coupled isotopic analysis with sequential extractions of streambed sediment. We found that the proportion of weakly-bound Hg within EFPC streambed sediment was relatively small, but could still account for a large proportion of the annual flux of dissolved Hg from EFPC. These sequential extractions also showed that this weakly-bound Hg fraction could be replenished from the much larger fraction of recalcitrant Hg in sediment. The isotopic composition of these weakly-bound and remobilized recalcitrant Hg fractions within the sediment was consistent with high-concentration dissolved Hg hotspots within hyporheic pore water. Thus, this research provided novel evidence that legacy mercury sources within streambed sediment could provide an ongoing contribution of dissolved Hg to surface waters. Finally, we developed new methods for the direct determination of the MeHg isotopic composition of organisms, which allowed a more direct evaluation of inorganic Hg and MeHg sources accumulating in the food web. We found that fish and aquatic invertebrates in both EFPC and a regional background site obtained inorganic Hg and MeHg from multiple isotopically distinct sources, including sediment, suspended particulates, and periphyton. Photodemethylation was found to be an important reaction influencing MeHg dynamics at both sites. However, the balance of microbial methylation and demethylation processes differed between the two streams, with fractionation resulting from methylation and demethylation processes being relatively in balance within the regional background site, whereas microbial methylation appeared to be dominant over microbial demethylation within the EFPC ecosystem. Broadly, the application of Hg isotopic analysis in this study led to numerous novel insights regarding the biogeochemical cycling of Hg in stream ecosystems. This research project promoted the development of two new approaches, including the coupling of sequential extractions with Hg isotopic analysis to assess remobilization of recalcitrant Hg within sediments, and a new method for the isotopic analysis of MeHg isolated from environmental samples. Both of these efforts represent advances in capacity for the field of mercury isotopic analysis and environmental assessment. Overall, this study demonstrates that the application of Hg stable isotope techniques continues to provide new insights into the biogeochemical cycling of Hg in complex aquatic environments, both within the EFPC and beyond.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Study on the Shock Wave Propagation Rule of a Gas Explosion in a Gas Compartment

Combined with the k-ε turbulence model of general application, a refined finite element model of a utility tunnel’s gas compartment filled with the methane/air mixture is developed. A series of analyses are made by using the powerful industry-leading computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software flame acceleration simulator (FLACS) to study the shock wave propagation rule in the gas compartment. The longitudinal and transversal distribution laws of the explosion shock wave are gained taking into consideration the spatial characteristics of the gas compartment. The influences of a few parameters, such as initial conditions and section size of the gas compartment, on the shock wave propagation rule are further discussed. The basic procedure for predicting the peak pressure of the blast wave is provided by considering the initial conditions and the gas compartment, and the corresponding injury effect of the explosion wave on the living beings is assessed. The investigation demonstrates that the peak pressure by the coupled effect between the initial conditions is significantly influenced, especially at the upper and lower gas explosion limits. The peak pressure increases gradually as the width or height increases, and both basically meet the linear relation. The proposed method can forecast the peak pressure of the explosion shock wave in the gas compartment accurately. According to the peak pressure longitudinal and transversal distributions of the blast wave, the peak pressure is far greater than the killing pressure threshold in the underground and closed space; consequently, it is not safe for the living beings in the gas compartment.

Lin, Shu-Chao↗

The Novel Hybrid Ab Initio Model of High-Performance Structural Alloys Design for Fossil Energy Power Plants

The current project developed a novel HT-CALPHAD/DFT approach, which can quickly design new high-performance structural alloys for the application of FE power plants. The PI will mainly take charge of high-throughput DFT simulations and computational thermodynamics of the selected multicomponent alloy systems for the FE power plant applications. At the end of the project, a novel hybrid model based on high throughput CALPHAD/DFT simulations and computational thermodynamics will be developed to provide guidance on how to identify multi-component new high-performance structural alloys with much less computational effort needed. It will address the extensive computation time needed for DFT on the new alloys design. In addition, it will also address the well-known headache of DFT, i.e. how to make the accurate prediction of the high-temperature equilibria. The novel hybrid model the PI proposed will not only be applied to the design of high-performance structural alloys in FE power plants but in many different applications, such as nuclear reactors. This hybrid modeling approach includes four sections: 1) HT-CALPHAD modeling of Al-Co-Cr-Ni-Fe system with FCC and BCC phase. In this section, 3561 non-equiatomic compositions were randomly generated in order to investigate the phase stability of single FCC and BCC phases. Meanwhile, we proposed a data screening procedure to screen out the good candidates within these compositions, considering the temperature range, average density, and melting temperature, etc. 2) Investigation of FCC-Cr lattice stability in Fe-Cr system. We systematically assessed the reliability of FCC-Cr lattice stability derived by DFT and CALPHAD approaches. Meanwhile, the Fe-Cr binary system was chosen as a case study to verify the Cr lattice stability obtained by both approaches. 3) High-throughput DFT modeling on elastic properties of Al-Co-Cr-Ni-Fe systems. We predicted and established the FCC quinary elastic constant database of the Al-Co-Cr-Fe-Ni systems at 0K by using special quasi-random structure (SQS) approach. The predictions will start with pure elements of Al-Co-Cr-Fe-Ni system and will be continued with binaries, ternaries, quaternaries, and finally the quinary compositions. 3) Modeling of temperature-dependent elastic properties in Al-Co-Cr-Ni-Fe systems. In this part, we predict the thermal expansion coefficient and elastic stiffness coefficient as a function of temperature by applying quasiharmonic approximation. With this approach, the elastic properties of HEAs at elevate temperature can be estimated.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Supplemental Defatted Microalgae Nannochloropsis oceanica Affected Apparent Retention and Ileal Digestibility of Nutrients in a Corn-Soybean Meal Based Diet for Broiler Chickens

Objective: This study was to assess impacts of including 10% defatted microalgae (Nannochloropsis oceanica, 45% crude protein and 3.8% ether extract) into a corn-soybean meal basal diet for broiler chickens on apparent retention and ileal digestibility of nutrients. Procedures: Day-old hatchling Cornish Giant cockerels were divided into two groups (6 cages/group, 6 chicks/cage) and fed either the basal (control) or the microalgae-supplemented (microalgae) diet for 6 weeks. Starting week 3, the two experimental diets were mixed with 0.2% chromium oxide as an indigestible marker. Total excreta of individual cages were collected daily for 3 consecutive days during week 6. At the end of week 6, chicks were euthanized to collect ileal digesta from 1 chick/cage. Energy and concentrations of dry matter, crude protein, ether extract, minerals, and amino acids in digesta, excreta, and diets were assayed. Apparent retentions and ileal digestibilities were calculated using the direct collection and indirect indicator methods. Data were analyzed by the Student’s t-test and the significant level of difference was at p < 0.05. Results: The microalgae diet had elevated (4.2% and 8.1% by the two methods, p < 0.05) apparent retention of ether extract, but similar apparent retention and ileal digestibility of dry matter and apparent metabolizable energy, compared with the control diet. Supplemental defatted microalgae decreased (p < 0.05) the apparent retention and ileal digestibility of dietary crude protein by 13% and 13%. The supplementation also decreased (p < 0.05) ileal digestibilities and apparent retentions of multiple amino acids ranging from 0.6% to 26%. Apparent retentions of sodium and total phosphorus were decreased (p < 0.05) by 13% and 71%, respectively, by the microalgae inclusion compared with the control. Conclusion: The inclusion of 10% defatted N. oceanica in the corn-soybean meal basal diet for broiler chickens led moderate increases in apparent retention and ileal digestibility of ether extract, but decreased those of crude protein, amino acids, sodium, and phosphorus.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Advanced Reactors Spent Fuel & Waste Science and Technology Program

Based on the higher interest in Advanced Reactor (AR) deployment (e.g., ARDP ) for potential new fuel cycles, the Spent Fuel & Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Program has begun to evaluate the possible implications of long-term management and final disposition of potential Advance Reactor spent nuclear fuels (SNF) that would be generated in potential advanced reactors. Safely managing and dispositioning the potential future AR SNF, and any other associated radioactive wastes, is the primary focus of this initial preliminary assessment of those. This paper summarizes three primary tasks the Spent Fuel & Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Program is executing (or collaborating on) related to the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle (BENFC) for potential future advanced reactors: 1. Advanced Reactors Spent Fuel and Waste Streams: Strategies for the BENFC This set of activities define a high-level strategy for how to systematically approach, identify, and close research and development (R&D) gaps/potential issues associated with long-term management and final disposition of AR SNF and other possible AR waste streams. This task involves summarizing advanced reactor concepts, their likely SNF and other waste forms, and identifying previous experience with similar materials, for example from DOE-managed SNF, with closely related characteristics to the potential future AR SNF. Technical R&D gaps between the breadth of detailed understanding for safe storage, transportation and disposal of the existing light water reactor SNF fuel cycle (e.g., see NASEM, 2022) and potential future fuel cycles based on advanced reactors would then be identified. 2. Characterization and Packaging Options of Advanced Reactor SNF These activities evaluate characteristics and packaging options for advanced reactor spent fuel forms. The fuel forms are categorized into three types: (1) tri-structural isotropic (TRISO), (2) metallic, and (3) fuel salt. Emphasis is given to TRISO and metallic SNF and additional waste streams from such AR as driven by the near-term anticipated operation of the Xe-100 and the Natrium reactors as advanced-reactor demonstrations1. Preliminary information for the spent-fuel salt discharged from molten-salt reactors (MSRs) is examined to provide a baseline for future efforts. All calculations and assumptions in this work are based on publicly available information. The following characteristics are calculated or estimated for use in the preliminary assessments: SNF volume and mass, radiation/activity levels through time, thermal conditions through time, potential radionuclide source terms, chemical interactions and evolutions, disposal inventories, and waste-form lifetime. Using those characteristics, calculations to determine the applicability of existing canister designs were performed. These evaluations included geometric (e.g., dimension, volume) and mass/weight considerations, known operational approaches and loading procedures, physical and chemical considerations/conditions for storage environments, as-loaded radiation, thermal, and criticality analyses to identify constraints for storage, transportation, and disposal. 3. Back-End Management of Advanced Reactors (BEMAR) The DOE NE-8 organization has defined an Integrated Project Team to evaluate the Back End Management of Advanced Reactors (BEMAR) (includes DOE staff from a range of organizations (e.g., NE-81, NE-82, OCED) and national laboratory technical staff within the DOE NE-81 and NE-82 programs). This BEMAR group works directly with advance reactors developers to assess for the DOE the technical feasibility of storage, transportation, and disposal of AR SNF based on the characteristics provided by the developers to DOE (much of which is proprietary). The BEMAR is also tasked to develop rough-order-of-magnitude cost estimates to compare the waste management system for individual advanced reactors to existing light-water reactor management practices. To accomplish this, the BEMAR group is implementing a Systems Engineering approach.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Modeling FLEX Human Actions Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

Most current efforts have modified and applied existing human reliability analysis (HRA) methods to treat human actions related to beyond-design-basis external events in which diverse and flexible coping strategies (FLEX) equipment would be deployed. However, many questions remain regarding the suitability of legacy HRA methods to address FLEX human actions, sparking the need for a new method of reasonably evaluating them. In this context, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) researched a relatively new approach to treating FLEX human actions via Event Modeling Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) software. EMRALD was developed to support the increasing need for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models that can respond to evolving plant conditions during simulations. A couple benefits were identified when analyzing FLEX human actions through this software. In general, it is especially useful for evaluating a strategy’s feasibility, including FLEX human actions that require a relatively long time to perform. In this paper, we suggest how FLEX human actions can be modeled using the EMRALD software. Two different HRA modeling approaches using EMRALD are introduced: (1) procedure-based modeling and (2) PRA/HRA-based modeling. The former approach was introduced in the authors’ previous paper, whereas this paper mainly discusses how the latter approach works for an extended loss of AC power (ELAP) scenario with relevant procedures and PRA models. A hybrid method combining the two modeling approaches is introduced at the paper’s conclusion.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Assessing complexity and dynamics in epidemics: geographical barriers and facilitators of foot-and-mouth disease dissemination

Introduction: Physical and non-physical processes that occur in nature may influence biological processes, such as dissemination of infectious diseases. However, such processes may be hard to detect when they are complex systems. Because complexity is a dynamic and non-linear interaction among numerous elements and structural levels in which specific effects are not necessarily linked to any one specific element, cause-effect connections are rarely or poorly observed. Methods: To test this hypothesis, the complex and dynamic properties of geo-biological data were explored with high-resolution epidemiological data collected in the 2001 Uruguayan foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epizootic that mainly affected cattle. County-level data on cases, farm density, road density, river density, and the ratio of road (or river) length/county perimeter were analyzed with an open-ended procedure that identified geographical clustering in the first 11 epidemic weeks. Two questions were asked: (i) do geo-referenced epidemiologic data display complex properties? and (ii) can such properties facilitate or prevent disease dissemination? Results: Emergent patterns were detected when complex data structures were analyzed, which were not observed when variables were assessed individually. Complex properties–including data circularity–were demonstrated. The emergent patterns helped identify 11 counties as ‘disseminators’ or ‘facilitators’ (F) and 264 counties as ‘barriers’ (B) of epidemic spread. In the early epidemic phase, F and B counties differed in terms of road density and FMD case density. Focusing on non-biological, geographical data, a second analysis indicated that complex relationships may identify B-like counties even before epidemics occur. Discussion: Geographical barriers and/or promoters of disease dispersal may precede the introduction of emerging pathogens. If corroborated, the analysis of geo-referenced complexity may support anticipatory epidemiological policies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Understanding the Stability of Manganese Chromium Antimonate Electrocatalysts through Multimodal In Situ and Operando Measurements

Herein, we utilize an on-line electrochemical flow cell coupled with an inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometer (ICP-MS) to characterize the impact of composition and reactant gas on the multielement dissolution of Mn(-Cr)-Sb-O electrocatalysts. Compared to Mn 2 O 3 and Cr 2 O 3 oxides, we find that the antimonate framework stabilizes Mn at OER potentials and Cr at both ORR and OER potentials. Furthermore, dissolution of Mn and Cr from Mn(-Cr)-Sb-O is found to be driven by ORR reaction rate, with minimal dissolution under N 2 . We observe preferential dissolution of Cr totaling 13% over 10 minutes at 0.3, 0.6, and 0.9 V vs RHE, with only 1.5% loss of Mn, indicating an enrichment of Mn at the surface of the particles. Despite this asymmetric dissolution, in situ X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) showed no measurable changes in the Mn K-edge at comparable potentials. This lack of change could suggest that modification to the Mn oxidation state in the surface layer is too small or that layer is too thin to be measured with the bulk XAS measurement. Lastly, on-line ICP-MS was used to assess the effects of applied potential, scan rate, and current of Mn-Cr-Sb-O during cyclic voltammetry and accelerated stress tests. With this deeper understanding of the interplay between oxygen reduction and dissolution, testing procedures were identified to maximize both activity and stability. This work highlights the use of multi-modal in situ characterization techniques in tandem to build a more complete model of stability and develop protocols for optimizing catalyst performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Autonomous Tuning and Charge-State Detection of Gate-Defined Quantum Dots

Defining quantum dots in semiconductor-based heterostructures is an essential step in initializing solid-state qubits. With growing device complexity and increasing number of functional devices required for measurements, a manual approach to finding suitable gate voltages to confine electrons electrostatically is impractical. Here, we implement a two-stage device characterization and dot-tuning process, which first determines whether devices are functional and then attempts to tune the functional devices to the single or double quantum-dot regime. We show that automating well-established manual-tuning procedures and replacing the experimenter’s decisions by supervised machine learning is sufficient to tune double quantum dots in multiple devices without premeasured input or manual intervention. The quality of measurement results and charge states are assessed by four binary classifiers trained with experimental data, reflecting real device behavior. We compare and optimize eight models and different data preprocessing techniques for each of the classifiers to achieve reliable autonomous tuning, an essential step towards scalable quantum systems in quantum-dot-based qubit architectures.

Darulova, J↗

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Project 57 Air Monitoring Report: January 1 through December 31, 2019

On April 24, 1957, the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) (now the Department of Energy [DOE]) conducted the Project 57 safety experiment in western Emigrant Valley northeast of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) (formerly the Nevada Test Site) on lands withdrawn by the Department of Defense (DOD) for the Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR). The test was performed to (1) assess a technique for estimating plutonium distribution resulting from a nonnuclear detonation, (2) develop biomedical evaluation techniques for use in plutonium-laden environments, (3) evaluate methods of surface decontamination, and (4) evaluate instruments and field procedures for the prompt estimation of alpha contamination (Shreve, 1958). Although the test did not result in the fission of nuclear materials, it did disseminate plutonium across the land surface. Following the experiment, the AEC fenced the contaminated area and returned control of the surrounding land to the DOD. Various radiological surveys were performed in the area and the DOE expanded the demarked Contamination Area (CA) in 2007 by posting signs 200 ft to 400 ft (60 m to 120 m) outside of the original fence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Requirements and Recommendations for a Physical Attack Characterization Framework

This study seeks to identify existing frameworks or develop requirements and recommendations for a new framework that can consistently characterize physical attacks, analogous to MITRE ATT&CK®. MITRE ATT&CK is widely used across government, research organizations, and the cyber security community to characterize cyber attack tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) in a consistent and commonly understood manner. While physical attack taxonomies, methodologies, and other tools for evaluating physical security do exist, many are sector and/or facility-type specific—and therefore not able to provide comparable scenarios across sectors—or are more focused on security assessment instead of the characterization of attacks themselves. A MITRE ATT&CK analog for physical attacks on critical infrastructure would provide a common language and structure for analysis of physical attacks. Existing attack characterization methodologies do not robustly address cyber-physical security risks. To fully understand a facility’s security needs, it is important to understand the entire vulnerability landscape from both a physical and a cyber perspective. To underscore this need, organizations such as the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) are calling for a coordinated approach to cyber and physical security, which they refer to as cyber and physical security convergence. A physical attack characterization framework that could be used jointly with MITRE ATT&CK would help support a more robust analysis in support of convergence, enabling the consistent characterization of attacks that utilize both cyber and physical tactics and techniques. This could provide analysts and stakeholders with a clearer understanding of how security mitigations deployed in the physical realm impact security risks in the cyber realm, and vice versa. In this study, the project team evaluates existing physical security taxonomies and methodologies to assess whether an existing method can be used to create a “physical half” of MITRE ATT&CK. This study then provides requirements and recommendations for a framework that can leverage aspects of existing methodologies. The goal of the final framework is for it to be widely adopted and referenced, regardless of critical infrastructure sector, facility type, or facility components. This study also identifies applicable use cases for when and how a framework could be applied across the various critical infrastructure sectors for a variety of attack types or motivations. Through a literature review of existing security-focused methodologies and taxonomies, engagement with relative stakeholders, evaluation of potential physical attack framework use cases, and subsequent identification of requirements, this study identified the following key findings and recommendations: There is a need for a new physical attack characterization framework; A physical attack framework should be interoperable with the MITRE ATT&CK framework; A physical attack framework should be broadly applicable, but with detailed tactics, techniques, and procedures that encompass the entire attack path; A physical attack framework should be based on observed or feasible events; A physical attack framework should adapt features from existing methodologies, frameworks, and taxonomies; A physical attack framework should be owned, overseen, and maintained by one organization.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Fast and Accurate Core Analysis by the Full-Immersion Pressure-Pulse Decay: Part 2—Practice and Demonstration

Summary This study continues the work of presenting a novel approach for making petrophysical assessments of tight core samples. This method, the full-immersion pressure-pulse decay (Hannon 2019), involves applying a rapid increase in pressure in a chamber surrounding the entire outer surface area of a cylindrical sample, shutting the system in, and monitoring the pressure decay in the chamber as it reaches a new equilibrium. A precursor article covered the numerical simulator designed to model flow through the sample, demonstrating its performance and accuracy in addition to providing a first-order comparison between the speed and shape of the pressure-decay responses of the full-immersion method with those of other similar transient methods. This study covers the parameter-estimation procedure and experimental verification through a proof-of-concept laboratory investigation. The investigations provided here demonstrate that under appropriate, achievable experimental conditions, the pressure data can be analyzed in such a way that returns an estimate of the porosity and apparent permeabilities both parallel and perpendicular to bedding from a single test performed on a single cylindrical sample. After determining these experimental conditions (the uniqueness window), this report outlines a data-inversion strategy to estimate the petrophysical properties (porosity, horizontal permeability, and vertical permeability) from each test. This strategy is put to the test through comparisons with measurements performed by a commercial core laboratory. A common set of samples recovered from an outcrop of a tight-gas sandstone formation were investigated using the full-immersion method, and their results are compared with those from conventional steady-state measurement procedures performed by the commercial laboratory. Comparisons between petrophysical characterizations of these samples, which had permeabilities between 25 nd and 2.3 μd, demonstrated close agreement in most cases. However, whereas steady-state measurements performed at the professional laboratory required 4 to 5 hours of testing time per measurement of a single permeability, similar assessments using the full-immersion technique, requiring approximately 5 to 10 minutes to complete, returned estimates of the horizontal and vertical permeability simultaneously. Additional analyses are provided to determine principal reasons of discrepancies in instances where agreement was not as strong. Based on lessons learned from these experiences, the report closes with suggestions on areas of improvement in the experimental approach. Once complete, these developments should propel this technology to fill a critical need to determine petrophysical properties (porosity and permeability) of tight rocks in a time-efficient manner and in a way that does not compromise their accuracy.

Energy & Fuels↗

Idaho National Laboratory Integrated Multisite SSHAC Level 3: Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) resides on the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), part of the Snake River Plain (SRP) with a complex origin and geologic history of volcanism. Much of the Quaternary (last 2.58 million years) volcanism within 400 km of INL is genetically associated with a major thermal anomaly referred to as the Yellowstone hotspot, which is currently located more than 180 km northeast of INL. Near INL, local volcanic sources include silicic domes near its southern border, and numerous dike-fed basaltic vents of the ESRP, some of which are near or within the INL boundaries. Quantitative probabilistic assessments of screened-in volcanic hazardous phenomena for nine different facility complexes at the INL are presented for a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 (SL3) study. The comprehensive, integrated multisite SSHAC study consists of a single regional Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment (PVHA) that pertains to all nine INL facility complexes, with site-specific information developed at each respective area of interest (AOI), referred to as the "INL facility AOI" (Figure ES-1). Hazard products are generated for specified INL facility AOIs for use by multiple stakeholders from different agencies in risk-informed decision-making regarding site selection, operations, and design of nuclear facilities at INL, consistent with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory guidance. The study also serves as the basis for future periodic safety assessments required for existing DOE facilities, such as 10-year evaluations of natural-phenomena hazards. Elements of the INL PVHA including initial characterization, screening, quantitative assessments of eruption and hazard potential, and consideration of facility needs are conducted using the three phases of the SSHAC process: evaluation, integration, and documentation. As per regulatory guidance, the SSHAC framework provided the necessary processes and procedures for the PVHA Technical Integration (TI) team, at three workshops, five formal working meetings and many TI team remote meetings, to conduct initial characterization, screen the volcanic hazards, create PVHA model inputs, exercise those models in the PVHA, consider facility-specific volcanic hazard needs, and perform final hazard calculations. The Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) provided independent oversight and performed process and technical reviews of the PVHA throughout its duration. The study included an extensive New Data Collection and Analyses (NDCA) program developed by the PVHA TI team to reduce uncertainties in hazard-significant elements in the PVHA model. NDCA activities generated 20 reports providing important contributory datasets and results to the project database for characterizing the ESRP. For example, a report compiling the dimensions of ESRP shield volcanoes and lava fields was used to construct volcanic footprints (areas of impact), was compared with data from INL subsurface cores, and was used to validate the results of lava-flow inundation modeling on the contemporary terrain. Another example is the acquisition of aeromagnetic data over INL and its surrounding area, with maps of buried magmatic features (e.g., subsurface volcanoes and swarms of feeder dikes) that informed the PVHA conceptual model of volcanism. The SSHAC evaluation process was used to conduct all elements of the PVHA including initial characterization and screening. Existing data and NDCA activities provided the foundation to develop the tectonomagmatic conceptual model of volcanism for the region of geographical interest in the SRP and Yellowstone hotspot volcanic system, and for considering volcanoes in the western US. Considering Quaternary volcanic sources active during this period, the screening approach identified and evaluated magma compositions, types of eruptive and intrusive phenomena, types of hazardous phenomena, and proximity of sources to INL. The PVHA TI team evaluated 18 types of magmatic sources in terms of 20 potentially hazardous phenomena, resulting in 360 screening decisions. The screening process resulted in 140 screened-in hazardous volcanic phenomena for Quaternary volcanic sources 1) proximal to INL facility complexes in the ESRP (64 basaltic and 54 silicic), 2) regional sources associated with the Yellowstone caldera system and Blackfoot Reservoir volcanic field (7), and 3) more distal sources from thirteen Cascade volcanoes and two volcanoes at Long Valley caldera (CA).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An empirical method for geometric calibration of a photon counting detector-based cone beam CT system

BACKGROUND: Geometric calibration is essential in developing a reliable computed tomography (CT) system. It involves estimating the geometry under which the angular projections are acquired. Geometric calibration of cone beam CTs employing small area detectors, such as currently available photon counting detectors (PCDs), is challenging when using traditional-based methods due to detectors’ limited areas. OBJECTIVE: This study presented an empirical method for the geometric calibration of small area PCD-based cone beam CT systems. METHODS: Unlike the traditional methods, we developed an iterative optimization procedure to determine geometric parameters using the reconstructed images of small metal ball bearings (BBs) embedded in a custom-built phantom. An objective function incorporating the sphericities and symmetries of the embedded BBs was defined to assess performance of the reconstruction algorithm with the given initial estimated set of geometric parameters. The optimal parameter values were those which minimized the objective function. The TIGRE toolbox was employed for fast tomographic reconstruction. To evaluate the proposed method, computer simulations were carried out using various numbers of spheres placed in various locations. Furthermore, efficacy of the method was experimentally assessed using a custom-made benchtop PCD-based cone beam CT. RESULTS: Computer simulations validated the accuracy and reproducibility of the proposed method. The precise estimation of the geometric parameters of the benchtop revealed high-quality imaging in CT reconstruction of a breast phantom. Within the phantom, the cylindrical holes, fibers, and speck groups were imaged in high fidelity. The CNR analysis further revealed the quantitative improvements of the reconstruction performed with the estimated parameters using the proposed method. CONCLUSION: Apart from the computational cost, we concluded that the method was easy to implement and robust.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗

An Evaluation of The Dynamic Physical Security Risk Assessment Methodology for Fleet-Wide Applications

The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large onsite physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This integrated process for physical security analysis is named Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF). This document provides an update on the progress in applying the MASS-DEF process to an operating commercial nuclear power plant as well as additional industry feedback regarding use of the tool for other physical security risk-informed topics. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, and integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5 or MAAP. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report is an update the progress of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report also provides an update to the procedural guidance for the MASS-DEF process and an overview of the generic models available for use by utilities. This report does not contain any plant’s sensitive information and/or safeguards information. This study’s purpose was to verify that the results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Data for Greenhouse Gas Accounting Procedures in Low Carbon Fuel Policies Overlook the Spatial Variability of Miscanthus-Derived Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Low carbon fuel policies such as the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), Canada Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR), and California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) as well as the 45Z tax credit are intended to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation. Cellulosic feedstocks, optimized biorefineries, and favorable farming locations can significantly reduce biofuel carbon intensity (CI). Despite advances in field-to-fuel GHG monitoring and flexibility in resource allocation within biorefineries (e.g., governing net electricity production), rigid CI accounting procedures in current policies may limit CI responsiveness across candidate sites and processing facilities. This work examines a hypothetical biomass-to-sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pathway using miscanthus and alcohol-to-jet (i) to demonstrate how GHG accounting requirements drive estimates of biofuel CIs and (ii) to explore potential CI and financial implications of scenario-specific life cycle assessment (LCA). Results demonstrate that GHG accounting using the CFR/LCFS can reasonably account for distinct levels of net electricity production by a biorefinery, but only the CFR yields similar CI sensitivity to spatially explicit factors (feedstock CI, grid electricity CI) as scenario-specific LCA: most GHG accounting frameworks do not capture CI variation across candidate sites in the United States. Ultimately, this work demonstrates the importance of LCA methodological specifications in low carbon fuel policies and tax credits.

Miscanthus↗

Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR-MS) peak intensity normalization for complex mixture analyses

Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR-MS) is a preferred technique for analyzing complex organic mixtures. Currently, there is no consensus normalization approach, nor an objective method for selecting one, for quantitative analyses of FT-ICR-MS data. We investigate a method to evaluate and score the amount of bias various normalization approaches introduce into the data. We evaluate the ability of the Statistical Procedure for the Analysis of Normalization Strategies (SPANS) to guide selection of appropriate normalization approaches for two different FT-ICR-MS datasets. Further, we test the robustness of SPANS results to changes in SPANS parameter values and assess the impact of using various normalization approaches on downstream statistical analyses. The normalization approach identified by SPANS differed for the two datasets. Normalization methods impacted the statistical significance of peaks differently, underscoring the importance of carefully evaluating potential methods. More consistent SPANS scores resulted when at least 120 significant peaks are used, where larger sets of peaks were obtained by increasing the p-value threshold. Interestingly, we show that Total Sum Scaling and highest peak normalization, used in previous studies, underperformed relative to SPANS-recommended normalization approaches. While there is no single, best normalization method for all datasets, SPANS provides a mechanism to identify an appropriate normalization method for analyzing FT-ICR-MS data quantitatively. As a result, the number of peaks used in the background distributions of SPANS contributes more significantly to the reproducibility of results than the p-value thresholds used to obtain those peaks.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗