Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “astronomy data modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13

Evidence for Evolved Stellar Binary Mergers in Observed B-type Blue Supergiants

Blue supergiants are the brightest stars in their host galaxies, and yet their evolutionary status has been a long-standing problem in stellar astrophysics. In this pioneering work, we present a large sample of 59 early B-type supergiants in the Large Magellanic Cloud with newly derived stellar parameters and identify the signatures of stars born from binary mergers among them. We simulate novel 1D merger models of binaries consisting of post main-sequence giants with helium-rich cores (primaries) and main-sequence companions (secondaries), and consider the effects of interaction of the secondary with the core of the primary along with the mixing induced by the merger in the envelope. Thereafter, the evolution of the newborn 17–43 M ⊙ stars is followed until core-carbon depletion, close to their final pre-explosion stage. Unlike stars born alone with comparable masses, stars born from mergers of evolved binaries are blue throughout their core helium-burning phase and replicate the surface gravities and Hertzsprung–Russell diagram positions of most of our sample, thus indicating that B-type supergiants structurally resemble stars born from such mergers. Moreover, the large nitrogen-to-carbon and nitrogen-to-oxygen number ratios, coupled with helium enhancements exhibited by at least half our data sample, is uniquely reproduced by our merger models. Collectively, these findings provide compelling evidence toward the important role of binary mergers in producing the currently observed population of blue supergiants in our Universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The SOUX AGN sample: optical/UV/X-ray SEDs and the nature of the disc

We use the SOUX sample of ~700 active galactic nucleus (AGN) to form average optical-ultraviolet (UV)-X-rays spectral energy distributions (SEDs) on a two-dimensional (2D) grid of M BH and L 2500 . We compare these with the predictions of a new AGN SED model, qsosed, which includes prescriptions for both hot and warm Comptonization regions as well as an outer standard disc. This predicts the overall SED fairly well for 7.5 < log(M BH /M ⊙ ) < 9.0 over a wide range in L/L Edd , but at higher masses the outer disc spectra in the model are far too cool to match the data. We create optical-UV composites from the entire Sloan Digital Sky Survey sample and use these to show that the mismatch is due to there being no significant change in spectral shape of the optical-UV continuum across several decades of M BH at constant luminosity. We show for the first time that this cannot be matched by standard disc models with high black hole spin. These apparently fit, but are not self-consistent as they do not include the General Relativistic effects for the emission to reach the observer. At high spin, increased gravitational redshift compensates for almost all of the higher temperature emission from the smaller inner disc radii. The data do not match the predictions made by any current accretion flow model. Either the disc is completely covered by a warm Comptonization layer whose properties change systematically with L/L Edd , or the accretion flow structure is fundamentally different to that of the standard disc models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Measurements of the z > 5 Lyman-α forest flux autocorrelation functions from the extended XQR-30 data set

We present the first observational measurements of the Lyman-α (Ly α) forest flux autocorrelation functions in ten redshift bins from 5.1 ≤ z ≤ 6.0. We use a sample of 35 quasar sightlines at z > 5.7 from the extended XQR-30 data set; these data have signal-to-noise ratios of >20 per spectral pixel. We carefully account for systematic errors in continuum reconstruction, instrumentation, and contamination by damped Ly α systems. With these measurements, we introduce software tools to generate autocorrelation function measurements from any simulation. Our measurements of the smallest bin of the autocorrelation function increase with redshift when normalizing by the mean flux, $\langle{F}\rangle$. This increase may come from decreasing $\langle{F}\rangle$ or increasing mean free path of hydrogen-ionizing photons, λmfp. Recent work has shown that the autocorrelation function from simulations at z > 5 is sensitive to λmfp, a quantity that contains vital information on the ending of reionization. For an initial comparison, we show our autocorrelation measurements with simulation models for recently measured λmfp values and find good agreements. Further work in modelling and understanding the covariance matrices of the data is necessary to get robust measurements of λmfp from this data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Sky subtraction in an era of low surface brightness astronomy

ABSTRACT The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Wide-Fast Deep sky survey will reach unprecedented surface brightness depths over tens of thousands of square degrees. Surface brightness photometry has traditionally been a challenge. Current algorithms which combine object detection with sky estimation systematically oversubtract the sky, biasing surface brightness measurements at the faint end and destroying or severely compromising low surface brightness light. While it has recently been shown that properly accounting for undetected faint galaxies and the wings of brighter objects can in principle recover a more accurate sky estimate, this has not yet been demonstrated in practice. Obtaining a consistent spatially smooth underlying sky estimate is particularly challenging in the presence of representative distributions of bright and faint objects. In this paper, we use simulations of crowded and uncrowded fields designed to mimic Hyper Suprime-Cam data to perform a series of tests on the accuracy of the recovered sky. Dependence on field density, galaxy type, and limiting flux for detection are all considered. Several photometry packages are utilized: source extractor, gnuastro, and the LSST science pipelines. Each is configured in various modes, and their performance at extreme low surface brightness analysed. We find that the combination of the source extractor software package with novel source model masking techniques consistently produce extremely faint output sky estimates, by up to an order of magnitude, as well as returning high fidelity output science catalogues.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Hybrid Star Models in the Light of New Multimessenger Data

Abstract Recent astrophysical mass inferences of compact stars HESS J1731-347 and PSR J0952-0607, with extremely small and large masses respectively, as well as the measurement of the neutron skin of Ca in the CREX experiment challenge and constrain the models of dense matter. We examine the concept of hybrid stars—objects containing quark cores surrounded by nucleonic envelopes—as models that account for these new data along with other inferences. We employ a family of 81 nucleonic equations of state (EOSs) with variable skewness and slope of symmetry energy at saturation density and a constant speed-of-sound EOS for quark matter. For each nucleonic EOS, a family of hybrid EOSs is generated by varying the transition density, the energy jump, and the speed of sound. These models are tested against the data from GW170817 and J1731-347, which favor low-density soft EOS and J0592-0607 and J0740+6620, which require high-density stiff EOS. The addition of J0592-0607's mass measurement to the constraints has no significant impact on the parameter space of the admissible EOS, but allows us to explore the potential effect of pulsars more massive than J0740+6620, if such exists. We then examine the occurrence of twin configurations and quantify the ranges of masses and radii that they can possess. It is shown that including J1731-347 data favors EOSs that predict low-mass twins with M ≲ 1.3 M ⊙ that can be realized if the deconfinement transition density is low. If combined with large speed of sound in quark matter such models allow for maximum masses of hybrid stars in 2.0–2.6 M ⊙ .

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Revisiting the Architecture of the KOI-89 System

While high stellar obliquities observed in exoplanetary systems may be attributed to processes that tilt the planetary orbits, it is also possible that they reflect misalignments between protoplanetary disks and stellar spins. This latter hypothesis predicts the presence of coplanar multiplanetary systems misaligned with their central stars. Here we reevaluate the evidence of such an architecture that has been claimed for the KOI-89 system. An early-type star, KOI-89 has one validated transiting planet, KOI-89.01/Kepler-462b (period 84.7 days, radius 3.0 R {sub ⊕}), and one transiting planet candidate, KOI-89.02 (period 207.6 days, radius 4.0 R {sub ⊕}), where the latter exhibits transit timing variations (TTVs). A previous modeling of the stellar gravity-darkening effect in the transit light curves inferred a high stellar obliquity of ≈70°. We perform photodynamical modeling of the Kepler transit light curves and use the resulting constraints on the orbital configuration and transit times to update the gravity-darkened transit model. As a result, we find no firm evidence for the gravity-darkening effect in the transit shapes and conclude that stellar obliquity is not constrained by the data. Given the evidence for low orbital eccentricities from the dynamical analysis, the system architecture can thus be consistent with many other multitransiting systems with flat, near-circular orbits aligned with the stellar spin. We find that the TTVs imparted on its neighbor imply that KOI-89.01 has a mass ≳20 M {sub ⊕}. This would render it one of the densest known sub-Neptunes, mostly composed of a solid core. Lower masses are possible if the TTVs are instead due to an unseen third planet.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Non-Gaussianity in the weak lensing correlation function likelihood – implications for cosmological parameter biases

ABSTRACT We study the significance of non-Gaussianity in the likelihood of weak lensing shear two-point correlation functions, detecting significantly non-zero skewness and kurtosis in 1D marginal distributions of shear two-point correlation functions in simulated weak lensing data. We examine the implications in the context of future surveys, in particular LSST, with derivations of how the non-Gaussianity scales with survey area. We show that there is no significant bias in 1D posteriors of Ωm and σ8 due to the non-Gaussian likelihood distributions of shear correlations functions using the mock data (100 deg2). We also present a systematic approach to constructing approximate multivariate likelihoods with 1D parametric functions by assuming independence or more flexible non-parametric multivariate methods after decorrelating the data points using principal component analysis (PCA). While the use of PCA does not modify the non-Gaussianity of the multivariate likelihood, we find empirically that the 1D marginal sampling distributions of the PCA components exhibit less skewness and kurtosis than the original shear correlation functions. Modelling the likelihood with marginal parametric functions based on the assumption of independence between PCA components thus gives a lower limit for the biases. We further demonstrate that the difference in cosmological parameter constraints between the multivariate Gaussian likelihood model and more complex non-Gaussian likelihood models would be even smaller for an LSST-like survey. In addition, the PCA approach automatically serves as a data compression method, enabling the retention of the majority of the cosmological information while reducing the dimensionality of the data vector by a factor of ∼5.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Trends of Neutron Skins and Radii of Mirror Nuclei from First Principles

The neutron skin of atomic nuclei impacts the structure of neutron-rich nuclei, the equation of state of nucleonic matter, and the size of neutron stars. Here we predict the neutron skin of selected light- and medium-mass nuclei using coupled-cluster theory and the auxiliary field diffusion Monte Carlo method with two- and three-nucleon forces from chiral effective field theory. We find a linear correlation between the neutron skin and the isospin asymmetry in agreement with the liquid-drop model and compare with data. We also extract the linear relationship that describes the difference between neutron and proton radii of mirror nuclei and quantify the effect of charge symmetry breaking terms in the nuclear Hamiltonian. In conclusion, our results for the mirror-difference charge radii and binding energies per nucleon agree with existing data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Gaussian Process Regression Reveals No Evidence for Planets Orbiting Kapteyn’s Star

Radial–velocity (RV) planet searches are often polluted by signals caused by gas motion at the star’s surface. Stellar activity can mimic or mask changes in the RVs caused by orbiting planets, resulting in false positives or missed detections. Here we use Gaussian process regression to disentangle the contradictory reports of planets versus rotation artifacts from Kapteyn’s star. To model rotation, we use joint quasiperiodic kernels for the RV and Hα signals, requiring that their periods and correlation timescales be the same. We find that the rotation period of Kapteyn’s star is 125 days, while the characteristic active-region lifetime is 694 days. Adding a planet to the RV model produces a best-fit orbital period of 100 yr, or 10 times the observing time baseline, indicating that the observed RVs are best explained by star rotation only. We also find no significant periodic signals in residual RV data sets constructed by subtracting off realizations of the best-fit rotation model and conclude that both previously reported “planets” are artifacts of the star’s rotation and activity. Our results highlight the pitfalls of using sinusoids to model quasiperiodic rotation signals.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Snowmass2021: Opportunities from Cross-survey Analyses of Static Probes

Cosmological data in the next decade will be characterized by high-precision, multi-wavelength measurements of thousands of square degrees of the same patches of sky. By performing multi-survey analyses that harness the correlated nature of these datasets, we will gain access to new science, and increase the precision and robustness of science being pursued by each individual survey. However, effective application of such analyses requires a qualitatively new level of investment in cross-survey infrastructure, including simulations, associated modeling, coordination of data sharing, and survey strategy. The scientific gains from this new level of investment are multiplicative, as the benefits can be reaped by even present-day instruments, and can be applied to new instruments as they come online.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Deep Field optical + near-infrared images and catalogue

ABSTRACT We describe the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Deep Fields, a set of images and associated multiwavelength catalogue (ugrizJHKs) built from Dark Energy Camera (DECam) and Visible and Infrared Survey Telescope for Astronomy (VISTA) data. The DES Deep Fields comprise 11 fields (10 DES supernova fields plus COSMOS), with a total area of ∼30 sq. deg. in ugriz bands and reaching a maximum i-band depth of 26.75 (AB, 10σ, 2 arcsec). We present a catalogue for the DES 3-yr cosmology analysis of those four fields with full 8-band coverage, totalling 5.88 sq. deg. after masking. Numbering 2.8 million objects (1.6 million post-masking), our catalogue is drawn from images coadded to consistent depths of r = 25.7, i = 25, and z = 24.3 mag. We use a new model-fitting code, built upon established methods, to deblend sources and ensure consistent colours across the u-band to Ks-band wavelength range. We further detail the tight control we maintain over the point-spread function modelling required for the model fitting, astrometry and consistency of photometry between the four fields. The catalogue allows us to perform a careful star–galaxy separation and produces excellent photometric redshift performance (NMAD = 0.023 at i < 23). The Deep-Fields catalogue will be made available as part of the cosmology data products release, following the completion of the DES 3-yr weak lensing and galaxy clustering cosmology work.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Uncovering New Physics in the Cosmic Microwave Background: Developing Novel Theoretical Models and Machine-Learning-Powered Constraints

The search for evidence of new physics via its signatures in the cosmos is a cornerstone goal of the Office of High Energy Physics in the DOE Office of Science. Indeed, the current concordance cosmological model provides intriguing hints for beyond-the-standard-model (BSM) physics, such as dark matter and dark energy. Recently, a potential breakdown has appeared in this model, which could be initial evidence toward a further important revision in our fundamental theoretical understanding of cosmology. This breakdown is reflected in disagreements between inferences of the current expansion rate of the universe, H 0 (the Hubble constant), based on indirect, cosmological data (e.g., from the early universe) and based on direct, local measurements. Despite significant effort, a compelling new concordance cosmological model has yet to be found; achieving significant progress on this front was the first major focus of the project. Theoretical considerations indicate that if the observational discrepancies are not due to systematic errors, they strongly suggest new physics operating in the redshift range just prior to recombination, when cosmic microwave background (CMB) photons last scattered. Crucially, almost all such models produce unique signatures in the CMB temperature and polarization power spectra, which will be measured with unprecedented precision by ongoing and upcoming experiments, including the DOE-supported CMB-S4 project. However, these subtle hints of new physics must be uncovered from beneath a swath of Galactic and extragalactic foreground contamination. Current CMB analysis methods, although powerful, do not optimally infer the CMB power spectrum in the presence of non-Gaussian foregrounds. There is thus scope for theoretical improvement in this foundational challenge of cosmological inference, which formed the second major focus of the project. The primary objectives of the project were two-fold: (1) to develop new theoretical models in cosmology that can restore concordance amongst the full suite of cosmological data sets, thereby potentially providing evidence of novel BSM physics; (2) to develop new theoretical machinery to enable significant sensitivity improvements in searches for new physics in cosmology, particularly via the CMB power spectrum. The two objectives are intertwined, as the analysis methodology improvements in (2) will enable the tightest possible constraints on the signatures of new physics predicted by the novel scenarios in (1). The theoretical approaches to restore concordance focused on models involving novel scalar field dynamics in the pre-recombination universe (the “early dark energy” scenario and modifications thereof), as well as couplings between this field and other components in the standard cosmological model, such as dark matter. We also studied a model featuring a generalization of the decaying dark matter scenario, in which a sub-component of dark matter converts into dark radiation at late times in cosmic history. While these ideas are mostly driven by phenomenological considerations, this tactic has proven extremely successful in cosmology throughout the past few decades, including in the early history of evidence for dark matter and dark energy. The new theoretical machinery envisioned in (2) is undergirded by developments in signal processing and machine learning, which will enable improvements in CMB power spectrum estimation in the presence of non-Gaussian foreground contaminants. In turn, this will yield optimal sensitivity in searches for new physics in the CMB, by maximizing the cosmological information that is extracted from this observable. The most ambitious outcome of this work would be the construction of a new cosmological model that restores concordance amongst data sets. Although the individual models studied here did not fully achieve that goal, significant progress in narrowing down the model space was made, as described below. Moreover, the outcome of the methodological improvements in (2) will significantly impact a wide range of theoretical cosmology, by enabling the tightest possible constraints on any model that leaves novel signatures in the CMB temperature and polarization power spectra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

CF + excitation in the interstellar medium

The detection of CF + in interstellar clouds potentially allows astronomers to infer the elemental fluorine abundance and the ionization fraction in ultraviolet-illuminated molecular gas. Because local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) conditions are hardly fulfilled in the interstellar medium (ISM), the accurate determination of the CF + abundance requires one to model its non-LTE excitation via both radiative and collisional processes. Here, we report quantum calculations of rate coefficients for the rotational excitation of CF + in collisions with para- and ortho-H 2 (for temperatures up to 150 K). As an application, we present non-LTE excitation models that reveal population inversion in physical conditions typical of ISM photodissociation regions (PDRs). We successfully applied these models to fit the CF + emission lines previously observed toward the Orion Bar and Horsehead PDRs. The radiative transfer models achieved with these new rate coefficients allow the use of CF + as a powerful probe to study molecular clouds exposed to strong stellar radiation fields.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Probing the Magnetosheath Boundaries Using Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) Orbital Encounters

Inside the magnetosheath, the IBEX-Hi energetic neutral atom (ENA) imager measures a distinct background count rate that is more than 10 times the typical heliospheric ENA emissions observed when IBEX is outside the magnetosheath. The source of this enhancement is magnetosheath ions of solar wind (SW) origin that deflect around the Earth's magnetopause (MP), scatter and neutralize from the anti-sunward part of the IBEX-Hi sunshade, and continue into the instrument as neutral atoms, behaving indistinguishably from ENAs emitted from distant plasma sources. While this background pollutes observations of outer heliospheric ENAs, it provides a clear signature of IBEX crossings over the magnetospheric boundaries. In this study, we investigate IBEX encounters with the magnetosheath boundaries using ~8 yr of orbital data, and we determine the MP and bow shock (BS) locations derived from this background signal. We find 280 BS crossings from X GSE ~ 11 R e to X GSE ~ –36 R e and 241 MP crossings from X GSE ~ 6 R e to X GSE ~ –48 R e . We compare IBEX BS and MP crossing locations to those from IMP-8, Geotail, Cluster, Magion-4, ISEE, and Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission, and we find that IBEX crossing locations overlap with the BS and MP locations inferred from these other data sets. In this paper, we demonstrate how IBEX can be used to identify magnetosheath crossings, and extend boundary observations well past the terminator, thus further constraining future models of magnetosheath boundaries. Furthermore, we use the IBEX data set to show observational evidence of near-Earth magnetotail squeezing during periods of strong interplanetary magnetic field B y .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cosmological constraints from the tomographic cross-correlation of DESI Luminous Red Galaxies and Planck CMB lensing

We use luminous red galaxies selected from the imaging surveys that are being used for targeting by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) in combination with CMB lensing maps from the Planck collaboration to probe the amplitude of large-scale structure over 0.4 ≤ z ≤ 1. Our galaxy sample, with an angular number density of approximately 500 deg -2 over 18,000 sq.deg., is divided into 4 tomographic bins by photometric redshift and the redshift distributions are calibrated using spectroscopy from DESI. We fit the galaxy autospectra and galaxy-convergence cross-spectra using models based on cosmological perturbation theory, restricting to large scales that are expected to be well described by such models. Within the context of ΛCDM, combining all 4 samples and using priors on the background cosmology from supernova and baryon acoustic oscillation measurements, we find S 8 = σ 8 (Ωm/0.3) 0.5 = 0.73 ± 0.03. This result is lower than the prediction of the ΛCDM model conditioned on the Planck data. Furthermore, our data prefer a slower growth of structure at low redshift than the model predictions, though at only modest significance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DeepAstroUDA: semi-supervised universal domain adaptation for cross-survey galaxy morphology classification and anomaly detection

Abstract Artificial intelligence methods show great promise in increasing the quality and speed of work with large astronomical datasets, but the high complexity of these methods leads to the extraction of dataset-specific, non-robust features. Therefore, such methods do not generalize well across multiple datasets. We present a universal domain adaptation method, DeepAstroUDA , as an approach to overcome this challenge. This algorithm performs semi-supervised domain adaptation (DA) and can be applied to datasets with different data distributions and class overlaps. Non-overlapping classes can be present in any of the two datasets (the labeled source domain, or the unlabeled target domain), and the method can even be used in the presence of unknown classes. We apply our method to three examples of galaxy morphology classification tasks of different complexities (three-class and ten-class problems), with anomaly detection: (1) datasets created after different numbers of observing years from a single survey (Legacy Survey of Space and Time mock data of one and ten years of observations); (2) data from different surveys (Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and DECaLS); and (3) data from observing fields with different depths within one survey (wide field and Stripe 82 deep field of SDSS). For the first time, we demonstrate the successful use of DA between very discrepant observational datasets. DeepAstroUDA is capable of bridging the gap between two astronomical surveys, increasing classification accuracy in both domains (up to 40 % on the unlabeled data), and making model performance consistent across datasets. Furthermore, our method also performs well as an anomaly detection algorithm and successfully clusters unknown class samples even in the unlabeled target dataset.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Where’s Swimmy?: Mining unique color features buried in galaxies by deep anomaly detection using Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam data

Abstract We present the Swimmy (Subaru WIde-field Machine-learning anoMalY) survey program, a deep-learning-based search for unique sources using multicolored (grizy) imaging data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP). This program aims to detect unexpected, novel, and rare populations and phenomena, by utilizing the deep imaging data acquired from the wide-field coverage of the HSC-SSP. This article, as the first paper in the Swimmy series, describes an anomaly detection technique to select unique populations as “outliers” from the data-set. The model was tested with known extreme emission-line galaxies (XELGs) and quasars, which consequently confirmed that the proposed method successfully selected $\sim\!\! 60\%$–$70\%$ of the quasars and $60\%$ of the XELGs without labeled training data. In reference to the spectral information of local galaxies at z = 0.05–0.2 obtained from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, we investigated the physical properties of the selected anomalies and compared them based on the significance of their outlier values. The results revealed that XELGs constitute notable fractions of the most anomalous galaxies, and certain galaxies manifest unique morphological features. In summary, deep anomaly detection is an effective tool that can search rare objects, and, ultimately, unknown unknowns with large data-sets. Further development of the proposed model and selection process can promote the practical applications required to achieve specific scientific goals.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Disentangling the Black Hole Mass Spectrum with Photometric Microlensing Surveys

Abstract From the formation mechanisms of stars and compact objects to nuclear physics, modern astronomy frequently leverages surveys to understand populations of objects to answer fundamental questions. The population of dark and isolated compact objects in the Galaxy contains critical information related to many of these topics, but is only practically accessible via gravitational microlensing. However, photometric microlensing observables are degenerate for different types of lenses, and one can seldom classify an event as involving either a compact object or stellar lens on its own. To address this difficulty, we apply a Bayesian framework that treats lens type probabilistically and jointly with a lens population model. This method allows lens population characteristics to be inferred despite intrinsic uncertainty in the lens class of any single event. We investigate this method’s effectiveness on a simulated ground-based photometric survey in the context of characterizing a hypothetical population of primordial black holes (PBHs) with an average mass of 30 M ⊙ . On simulated data, our method outperforms current black hole (BH) lens identification pipelines and characterizes different subpopulations of lenses while jointly constraining the PBH contribution to dark matter to ≈25%. Key to robust inference, our method can marginalize over population model uncertainty. We find the lower mass cutoff for stellar origin BHs, a key observable in understanding the BH mass gap, particularly difficult to infer in our simulations. This work lays the foundation for cutting-edge PBH abundance constraints to be extracted from current photometric microlensing surveys.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗