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NASA NTRS2016

The Mexican Drought Atlas: Tree-Ring Reconstructions of the Soil Moisture Balance During the Late Pre-Hispanic, Colonial, and Modern Eras

Mexico has suffered a long history and prehistory of severe sustained drought. Drought over Mexico is modulated by ocean-atmospheric variability in the Atlantic and Pacific, raising the possibility for long-range seasonal climate forecasting, which could help mediate the economic and social impacts of future dry spells. The instrumental record of Mexican climate is very limited before 1920, but tree-ring chronologies developed from old-growth forests in Mexico can provide an excellent proxy representation of the spatial pattern and intensity of past moisture regimes useful for the analysis of climate dynamics and climate impacts. The Mexican Drought Atlas (MXDA) has been developed from an extensive network of 252 climate sensitive tree-ring chronologies in and near Mexico. The MXDA reconstructions extend from 1400 CE-2012 and were calibrated with the instrumental summer (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) on a 0.5deg latitude/longitude grid extending over land areas from 14 to 34degN and 75-120degW using Ensemble Point-by-Point Regression (EPPR) for the 1944-1984 period. The grid point reconstructions were validated for the period 1920-1943 against instrumental gridded scPDSI values based on the fewer weather station observations available during that interval. The MXDA provides a new spatial perspective on the historical impacts of moisture extremes over Mexico during the past 600-years, including the Aztec Drought of One Rabbit in 1454, the drought of El Ano de Hambre in 1785-1786, and the drought that preceded the Mexican Revolution of 1909-1910. The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important ocean-atmospheric forcing of moisture variability detected with the MXDA. In fact, the reconstructions suggest that the strongest central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) teleconnection to the soil moisture balance over North America may reside in northern Mexico. This ENSO signal has stronger and more time-stable correlations than computed for either the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The extended Multivariate ENSO Index is most highly correlated with reconstructed scPDSI over northern Mexico, where warm events favor moist conditions during the winter, spring, and early summer. This ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico has been strong over the past 150 years, but it has been comparatively weak and non-stationary in the MXDA over central and southern Mexico where eastern tropical Pacific and Caribbean/tropical Atlantic SSTs seem to be more important. The ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico is weaker in the available instrumental PDSI, but analyses based on the millennium climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model suggest that the moisture balance during the winter, spring, and early summer over northern Mexico may indeed be particularly sensitive to ENSO forcing. Nationwide drought is predicted to become more common with anthropogenic climate change, but the MXDA reconstructions indicate that intense "All Mexico" droughts have been rare over the past 600 years and their frequency does not appear to have increased substantially in recent decades.

El Nino↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variance Decomposition of MEDLI2 Reconstructed Heating Using Neural Networks

The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI2) sensor suite collected data during entry of the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover into Mars’ atmosphere. This suite included a network of MEDLI2 Instrumented Sensor Plugs (MISPs). Each MISP was comprised of a cylinder made of Thermal Protection System (TPS) material with 1-3 embedded thermocouples (TCs), and it was flush mounted into the heatshield or backshell. Data from these in-depth TCs were used to reconstruct the aeroheating environment of the vehicle throughout entry. Surface heating was posed as an inverse problem, with the goal of estimating the surface heating by minimizing an objective function of the difference between MISP temperature measurements during flight and the temperature predictions derived from the Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal response (FIAT) program. Given an aerothermal environment, FIAT calculates the material response and provides in-depth temperatures throughout the TPS material. To achieve the reverse, an internal tool called FIAT_Opt runs through multiple different environments until the output temperature at the TC depth closely matches the flight data. 95% confidence intervals on the reconstructed surface heating were obtained using Monte Carlo analysis, in which uncertainties in the thermocouple depth and the TPS material properties (e.g., density, thermal conductivity, heat capacity, emissivity) based on flight-lot material testing were included. A variance decomposition method using Sobol indices was employed to assess the sensitivity of the reconstructed peak heating to the TC placement and material property uncertainties. Variance decomposition was found to require tens of thousands of FIAT_Opt runs in order for the Sobol indices to converge. With a single FIAT_Opt run taking on the order of 40 minutes, the required number of computations would take months to complete, even if using multiple CPUs. To mitigate this problem, three machine learning models (ridge regression with cross-validation, random forest regression, and a deep neural network) were trained and tested using the 2000 Monte Carlo runs that were already completed. A subset of 1600 runs were used to train the model (i.e., training set), while the remaining 400 runs were used as the test set. The predictions from the deep neural network (DNN) on the test set showed nearly perfect agreement to the actual values computed with FIAT_Opt (R2 > 0.99). Using the DNN as a surrogate model, the variance decomposition using 50,000 runs was completed within minutes. The resulting Sobol indices showed that the reconstructed peak surface heating was most sensitive to the uncertainties in the thermal conductivity (ST = 0.37) and heat capacity (ST = 0.26). This method can be leveraged to provide requirements for material property measurements needed to improve the accuracy of surface heating prediction and ultimately lead to the reduction of design margins in the future. This presentation will include background on the MEDLI2 suite; the method used for inverse heating estimation; the way that material property uncertainties were accounted for using Monte Carlo analysis; a brief background on variance decomposition; the motivation for using machine learning in this context; how a neural network was trained on the data to enable variance decomposition in a fraction of the time; and the variance decomposition results for one of the MISPs.

Hannah Alpert↗

NASA NTRS2019

Reconstruction of Schiaparelli and Comars Flight Data

ESA recently flew an entry, descent, and landing demonstrator module called Schiaparelli that entered the atmosphere of Mars on the 19th of October, 2016. The instrumentation suite included heatshield and backshell pressure transducers and thermocouples (known as AMELIA) and backshell radiation and direct heatflux-sensing sensors (known as COMARS and ICOTOM). Due to the failed landing of Schiaparelli, only a subset of the flight data was transmitted before and after plasma black-out. The goal of this paper is to present comparisons of the flight data with calculations from NASA simulation tools, DPLR/NEQAIR and LAURA/HARA. DPLR and LAURA are used to calculate the flowfield around the vehicle and surface properties, such as pressure and convective heating. The flowfield data are passed to NEQAIR and HARA to calculate the radiative heat flux. Comparisons will be made to the COMARS total heat flux, radiative heat flux and pressure measurements. Results will also be shown against the reconstructed heat flux which was calculated from an inverse analysis of the AMELIA thermocouple data performed by Astrium. Preliminary calculations are presented in this abstract. The aerodynamics of the vehicle and certain as yet unexplained features of the inverse analysis and forebody data will be investigated.

Schiaparelli↗

DOE OSTI2025

An iterative CMB lensing estimator minimizing instrumental noise bias

Noise maps from cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments are generally statistically anisotropic, due to scanning strategies, atmospheric conditions, or instrumental effects. Any mismodeling of this complex noise can bias the reconstruction of the lensing potential and the measurement of the lensing power spectrum from the observed CMB maps. We introduce a new CMB lensing estimator based on the maximum (MAP) reconstruction that is minimally sensitive to these instrumental noise biases. By modifying the likelihood to rely exclusively on correlations between CMB map splits with independent noise realizations, we minimize autocorrelations that contribute to biases. In the regime of many independent splits, this maximum closely approximates the optimal MAP reconstruction of the lensing potential. In simulations, we demonstrate that this method is able to determine lensing observables that are immune to any noise mismodeling with a negligible cost in signal-to-noise ratio. Our estimator enables unbiased and nearly optimal lensing reconstruction for next-generation CMB surveys.

Legrand, Louis [University of Cambridge (United Ki↗

NASA NTRS1991

Does sedimentary organic delta 13C record variations in quaternary ocean [CO2(aq)]?

Ocean surface water [CO2(aq)] variations based on glacial/interglacial changes in sediment delta 13Corg are shown to compare favorably with reconstructions based on ice core [CO2]. In particular, an approximate 80 microatmospheres increase in atmospheric pCO2 during the last glacial-interglacial transition is calculated to correspond to a 3-4 micromolar increase in ocean surface water [CO2(aq)] at atmospheric equilibrium. A widespread marine delta 13Corg decrease of 1-2% accompanied this event and was not preceded by an equivalent isotopic change in surface water total dissolved inorganic carbon. These observations support the hypothesis that [CO2(aq)] influences photosynthetic isotope fractionation between marine inorganic and organic carbon pools, and therefore that plankton/sediment delta 13Corg may serve as a proxy for surface water [CO2(aq)].

NASA Program Exobiology↗

NASA NTRS2004

Merging the MODIS and NESDIS Monthly Snow-Cover Records to Study Decade-Scale Changes in Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover

A decade-scale record of Northern Hemisphere snow cover has been available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS) and has been reconstructed and validated by Rutgers University following adjustments for inconsistencies that were discovered in the early years of the data set. This record provides weekly, monthly (and, in recent years, daily) snow cover from 1966 to the present for the Northern Hemisphere. With the December 1999 launch of NASA's Earth observing System (EOS) Terra satellite, snow maps are being produced globally, using automated algorithms, on a daily, weekly and monthly basis from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. The resolution of the MODIS monthly snow maps (0.05deg or about 5 km) is an improvement over that of the NESDIS-derived monthly snow maps (>approx.10 km) the maps, it is necessary to study the datasets carefully to determine if it is possible to merge the datasets into a continuous record. The months in which data are available for both the NESDIS and MODIS maps (March 2000 to the present) will be compared quantitatively to analyze differences in North American and Eurasian snow cover. Results from the NESDIS monthly maps show that for North America (including all 12 months), there is a trend toward slightly less snow cover in each succeeding decade. Interannual snow-cover extent has varied significantly since 2000 as seen in both the NESDIS and MODIS maps. As the length of the satellite record increases through the MODIS era, and into the National Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) era, it should become easier to identify trends in areal extent of snow cover, if present, that may have climatic significance. Thus it is necessary to analyze the validity of merging the NESDIS and MODIS, and, in the future, the NPOESS datasets for determination of long-term continuity in measurement of Northern Hemisphere snow cover.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Solar, Atmospheric, and Volcanic Impacts on 10 Be Depositions in Greenland and Antarctica During the Last 100 Years

Cosmogenic radionuclides (e.g., 10 Be) from ice cores are a powerful tool for solar reconstructions back in time. However, superimposed on the solar signal, other factors like weather/climate and volcanic influences on 10 Be can complicate the interpretation of 10 Be data. A comprehensive study of 10 Be records over the recent period, when atmospheric 10 Be production and meteorological conditions are relatively well-known, can improve our interpretation of 10 Be records. Here we conduct a systematic study of the production and climate/volcanic signals in Antarctica and Greenland 10 Be records, including a new 10 Be record from the East GReenland Ice-core Project site. Greenland and Antarctica records show significant decreasing trends (5%–6.5%/decade) for 1900–1950, which is comparable with the expected production rate inferred from sunspot observations. By comparing 10 Be records with reanalysis data and atmospheric circulation patterns, 10 Be records from Southern/Southeastern Greenland are significantly correlated with the Scandinavia pattern. Stacking 10 Be records from different locations can enhance the production signal. However, this approach is not always straightforward as uncertainties in some records can lead to a weaker solar signal. A strategy can be employed to select records for the bipolar stack by comparing Greenland records with Antarctica records, assuming the shared signal is a production signal. Finally, we observe significant increases (36%–64%) in 10 Be depositions in Greenland related to the Agung eruption. This large increase in Greenland 10 Be records after the Agung eruption, could be partly explained by the enhanced air mass transport from mid-latitudes coinciding with the decreased precipitation en-route.

10Be↗

NASA NTRS2019

Reconstruction of the Adaptable Deployable Entry and Placement Technology Sounding Rocket One Flight Test

The Adaptable Deployable Entry and Placement Technology Sounding Rocket One flight test is a demonstration experiment for deployable atmospheric decelerator technologies. The suborbital flight test occurred on 12 September 2018, at the White Sands Missile Range. Data from on-board and ground-based sensors were collected, from which the as-flown trajectory was reconstructed using an iterative extended Kalman filter-smoother. This paper describes the methodology, test vehicle instrumentation, and data analysis results from the flight test trajectory reconstruction.

Tynis, Jake A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Regional tropical rainfall shifts under global warming: an energetic perspective

Abstract Future climate simulations feature pronounced spatial shifts in the structure of tropical rainfall. We apply a novel atmospheric energy flux analysis to diagnose late 21st century tropical rainfall shifts in a large ensemble of simulations of 21st century climate. The method reconstructs 2D spatial changes in rainfall based on horizontal shifts in the lines of zero meridional and zonal divergent energy flux, called the energy flux equator (EFE) and energy flux prime meridian (EFPM), respectively. Two main sources of future atmospheric energy flux changes, and hence rainfall shifts, are identified by the analysis: the high-latitude North Atlantic due to a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that shifts tropical rainfall southwards over the greater Tropical Atlantic sector and eastern Pacific; and the eastern tropical Pacific due to a permanent El-Niño-like response that produces zonal shifts over the Maritime Continent and South America. To first order, the shifts in the EFE and EFPM mirror gross distributional changes in tropical precipitation, with a southward shift in rainfall over the tropical Atlantic, West Africa, and eastern tropical Pacific and an eastward shift over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific. When used to reconstruct future rainfall shifts in the tropical Atlantic and Sahel, the method reasonably represents the simulated meridional structure of rainfall shifts but does not do so for the zonal structures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

Coupled Modes of North Atlantic Ocean Atmosphere Variability and the Onset of the Little Ice Age

Hydroclimate extremes in North America, Europe, and the Mediterranean are linked to ocean and atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Atlantic, but the limited length of the instrumental record prevents complete identification and characterization of these patterns of covariability especially at decadal to centennial timescales. Here we analyze the coupled patterns of drought variability on either side of the North Atlantic Ocean basin using independent climate field reconstructions spanning the last millennium in order to detect and attribute epochs of coherent basinwide moisture anomalies to ocean and atmosphere processes. A leading mode of broadscale moisture variability is characterized by distinct patterns of North Atlantic atmosphere circulation and sea surface temperatures.

Kevin J Anchukaitis↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Huygens Atmospheric Structure Instrument (HASI): Expected Results at Titan and Performance Verification in Terrestrial Atmosphere

The Huygens ASI is a multi-sensor package resulting from an international cooperation, it has been designed to measure the physical quantities characterizing Titan's atmosphere during the Huygens probe mission. On 14th January, 2005, HASI will measure acceleration, pressure, temperature and electrical properties all along the Huygens probe descent on Titan in order to study Titan s atmospheric structure, dynamics and electric properties. Monitoring axial and normal accelerations and providing direct pressure and temperature measurements during the descent, HASI will mainly contribute to the Huygens probe entry and trajectory reconstruction. In order to simulate the Huygens probe descent and verify HASI sensors performance in terrestrial environment, stratospheric balloon flight experiment campaigns have been performed, in collaboration with the Italian Space Agency (ASI). The results of flight experiments have allowed to determine the atmospheric vertical profiles and to obtain a set of data for the analysis of probe trajectory and attitude reconstruction.

Ferri, F.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Fine-resolution imaging of solar features using Phase-Diverse Speckle

Phase-diverse speckle (PDS) is a novel imaging technique intended to overcome the degrading effects of atmospheric turbulence on fine-resolution imaging. As its name suggests, PDS is a blend of phase-diversity and speckle-imaging concepts. PDS reconstructions on solar data were validated by simulation, by demonstrating internal consistency of PDS estimates, and by comparing PDS reconstructions with those produced from well accepted speckle-imaging processing. Several sources of error in data collected with the Swedish Vacuum Solar Telescope (SVST) were simulated: CCD noise, quantization error, image misalignment, and defocus error, as well as atmospheric turbulence model error. The simulations demonstrate that fine-resolution information can be reliably recovered out to at least 70% of the diffraction limit without significant introduction of image artifacts. Additional confidence in the SVST restoration is obtained by comparing its spatial power spectrum with previously-published power spectra derived from both space-based images and earth-based images corrected with traditional speckle-imaging techniques; the shape of the spectrum is found to match well the previous measurements. In addition, the imagery is found to be consistent with, but slightly sharper than, imagery reconstructed with accepted speckle-imaging techniques.

Paxman, Richard G.↗

NASA NTRS2014

First Use of Synoptic Vector Magnetograms for Global Nonlinear, Force-Free Coronal Magnetic Field Models

Context. The magnetic field permeating the solar atmosphere is generally thought to provide the energy for much of the activity seen in the solar corona, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), etc. To overcome the unavailability of coronal magnetic field measurements, photospheric magnetic field vector data can be used to reconstruct the coronal field. Currently, there are several modelling techniques being used to calculate three-dimensional field lines into the solar atmosphere. Aims. For the first time, synoptic maps of a photospheric-vector magnetic field synthesized from the vector spectromagnetograph (VSM) on Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) are used to model the coronal magnetic field and estimate free magnetic energy in the global scale. The free energy (i.e., the energy in excess of the potential field energy) is one of the main indicators used in space weather forecasts to predict the eruptivity of active regions. Methods. We solve the nonlinear force-free field equations using an optimization principle in spherical geometry. The resulting threedimensional magnetic fields are used to estimate the magnetic free energy content E(sub free) = E(sub nlfff) − E(sub pot), which is the difference of the magnetic energies between the nonpotential field and the potential field in the global solar corona. For comparison, we overlay the extrapolated magnetic field lines with the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations by the atmospheric imaging assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Results. For a single Carrington rotation 2121, we find that the global nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) magnetic energy density is 10.3% higher than the potential one. Most of this free energy is located in active regions.

Sun: corona↗

NASA NTRS1974

Satellite determination of nature and microstructure of atmospheric aerosols

A method is presented for the determination of aerosol physical parameters on the basis of scattered radiance measurements. The reconstruction of aerosol particle size distribution in the case of a spectral forward scattering method is considered, taking into account an inverse diffraction integral expression, a model cloud, the effect of lower wavenumber cut-off, the effect of higher wavenumber cut-off, the effect of spectral resolution, and the effects of multiple scattering and background noise. The determination of the aerosol complex refractive index with the aid of a minimization search method is also discussed.

Fymat, A. L.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Overview of NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center's program on knowledge of atmospheric processes

The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is charged with the responsibility to enhance aviation safety through improving understanding of various atmospheric phenomena. A brief discussion is presented concerning the tasks and work being accomplished by MSFC. The tasks are defined as follows: (1) to determine and define the turbulence and steady wind environments induced by buildings, towers, hills, trees, etc., (2) to identify, develop, and apply natural environment technology for the reconstruction and/or simulation of the natural environment for aircraft accident investigation and hazard identification, (3) to develop basic information about free atmosphere perturbations, (4) to develop and apply fog modification mathematical models to assess candidate fog modification schemes and to develop appropriate instrumentation to aquire basic data about fog. To accomplish these tasks MSFC has developed a program involving field data acquisition, wind tunnel studies, theoretical studies, data analysis, and flight simulation studies.

Camp, D. W.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Neutron-antineutron oscillation search with MicroBooNE and DUNE

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is an international project aiming at neutrino physics and astrophysics and a search for phenomena predicted by theories beyond the standard model (BSM). The excellent imaging capability of Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) technology, particle tracking and identification utilized in the Far Detector, as well as the Far Detector size and underground placement, allow the experiment to achieve high sensitivity to various rare processes. BSM theories predict the existence of baryon number non-conservation effects, in particular when the baryon number changes by 2. Here we discuss the sensitivity of DUNE to neutron-antineutron oscillation. With full event simulation and reconstruction using the LArSoft package, we have investigated the background to potential signal events from atmospheric neutrino interactions and particle misidentification, and utilized machine learning techniques to enhance the discrimination between signal and background. The methodologies being developed for a high-sensitivity search for neutron-antineutron oscillation in DUNE can also be demonstrated with the currently running MicroBooNE LArTPC. We discuss progress on demonstrating the developed techniques with the first-ever search for neutron-antineutron oscillation in a LArTPC using MicroBooNE data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Method of Ground-Based Cloud Motion Predict: CCLSTM + SR-Net

Ground-based cloud images can provide information on weather and cloud conditions, which play an important role in cloud cover monitoring and photovoltaic power generation forecasting. However, the cloud motion prediction of ground-based cloud images still lacks advanced and complete methods, and traditional technologies based on image processing and motion vector calculation are difficult to predict cloud morphological changes. In this paper, we propose a cloud motion prediction method based on Cascade Causal Long Short-Term Memory (CCLSTM) and Super-Resolution Network (SR-Net). Firstly, CCLSTM is used to estimate the shape and speed of cloud motion. Secondly, the Super-Resolution Network is built based on perceptual losses to reconstruct the result of CCLSTM and, finally, make it clearer. We tested our method on Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility TSI (total sky imager) images. The experiments showed that the method is able to predict the sky cloud changes in the next few steps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1971

History of Martian volatiles - Implications for organic synthesis.

A theoretical reconstruction of the history of Martian volatiles indicates that Mars probably possessed a substantial reducing atmosphere at the outset of its history, and that its present tenuous and more oxidized atmosphere is the result of extensive chemical evolution. As a consequence, it is probable that Martian atmospheric chemical conditions, now hostile with respect to abiotic organic synthesis in the gas phase, were initially favorable. Evidence indicating the chronology and degradational history of Martian surface features, surface mineralogy, bulk volatile content, internal mass distribution, and thermal history suggests that Mars catastrophically developed a substantial reducing atmosphere as the result of rapid accretion.

Fanale, F. P.↗