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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A Gigaparsec-scale Hydrodynamic Volume Reconstructed with Deep Learning

The next generation of spectroscopic surveys will map the large-scale structure of the Universe at high redshifts (2 ≤ z ≤ 5) using millions of quasar spectra, enabling major advances in constraining both the standard cosmological model and its extensions. Robust cosmological analyses of these data sets require numerical simulations that both cover gigaparsec volumes and resolve features on ∼10 kpc scales and smaller. However, running such large-volume, high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations is computationally prohibitive. We present a generative deep learning model that enhances a low-resolution, gigaparsec-scale (960 h −1 Mpc) hydrodynamic simulation using a smaller (80 h −1 Mpc) high-resolution input hydrodynamic simulation as training data. The resulting enhanced simulation reproduces the line-of-sight power spectrum to within ∼10% and the three-dimensional power spectrum at the ∼20% level at intermediate to small scales (k ≲ 2 h Mpc −1 ). Our method shows strong promise for producing realistic simulations for cosmological analyses with current surveys such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and upcoming next-generation experiments, but further improvements are needed to accurately recover the large-scale modes. We publicly release the enhanced hydrodynamic simulation, along with a halo catalog from a companion N-body dark matter simulation to support the calibration of data analysis pipelines for these large-scale surveys.

Convolutional neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Galaxy mock catalogs for BAO analysis

The calibration and validation of scientific analysis in simulations is a fundamental tool to ensure unbiased and robust results in observational cosmology. In particular, mock galaxy catalogs are a crucial resource to achieve these goals in the measurement of baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) in the clustering of galaxies. Here we present a set of 1952 galaxy mock catalogs designed to mimic the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 BAO sample over its full photometric redshift range 0.6 < zphoto < 1.1. The mocks are based upon 488 ICE-COLA fast N-body simulations of full-sky light cones and were created by populating halos with galaxies, using a hybrid halo occupation distribution – halo abundance matching model. This model has ten free parameters, which were determined, for the first time, using an automatic likelihood minimization procedure. We also introduced a novel technique to assign photometric redshift for simulated galaxies, following a two-dimensional probability distribution with VIMOS Public Extragalactic Redshift Survey data. The calibration was designed to match the observed abundance of galaxies as a function of photometric redshift, the distribution of photometric redshift errors, and the clustering amplitude on scales smaller than those used for BAO measurements. An exhaustive analysis was done to ensure that the mocks reproduce the input properties. Finally, mocks were tested by comparing the angular correlation function w(θ), angular power spectrum Cℓ, and projected clustering ξp(r⊥) to theoretical predictions and data. The impact of volume replication in the estimate of the covariance is also investigated. The success in accurately reproducing the photometric redshift uncertainties and the galaxy clustering as a function of redshift render this mock creation pipeline as a benchmark for future analyses of photometric galaxy surveys.Key words: catalogs / large-scale structure of Universe / galaxies: distances and redshifts / Galaxy: halo / methods: numerical

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Early season prediction of within-field crop yield variability by assimilating CubeSat data into a crop model

Accurate early season predictions of crop yield at the within-field scale can be used to address a range of crop production, management, and precision agricultural challenges. While the remote sensing of within-field insights has been a research goal for many years, it is only recently that observations with the required spatio-temporal resolutions, together with efficient assimilation methods to integrate these into modeling frameworks, have become available to advance yield prediction efforts. Here we explore a yield prediction approach that combines daily high-resolution CubeSat imagery with the APSIM crop model. The approach employs APSIM to train a linear regression that relates simulated yield to simulated leaf area index (LAI). That relationship is then used to identify the optimal regression date at which the LAI provides the best prediction of yield: in this case, approximately 14 weeks prior to harvest. Instead of applying the regression on satellite imagery that is coincident, or closest to, the regression date, our method implements a particle filter that integrates CubeSat-based LAI into APSIM to provide end-of-season high-resolution (3 m) yield maps weeks before the optimal regression date. The approach is demonstrated on a rainfed maize field located in Nebraska, USA, where suitable collections of both imagery and in-situ data were available for assessment. The procedure does not require in-field data to calibrate the regression model, with results showing that even with a single assimilation step, it is possible to provide yield estimates with good accuracy up to 21 days before the optimal regression date. Yield spatial variability was reproduced reasonably well, with a strong correlation to independently collected measurements (R 2 = 0.73 and rRMSE = 12%). When the field averaged yield was compared, our approach reduced yield prediction error from 1 Mg/ha (control case based on a calibrated APSIM model), to 0.5 Mg/ha (using satellite imagery alone), and then to 0.2 Mg/ha (results with assimilation up to three weeks prior to the optimal regression date). Such a capacity to provide spatially explicit yield predictions early in the season has considerable potential to enhance digital agricultural goals and improve end-of-season yield predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Establishing performance metrics for quantitative non-targeted analysis: a demonstration using per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances

Abstract Non-targeted analysis (NTA) is an increasingly popular technique for characterizing undefined chemical analytes. Generating quantitative NTA (qNTA) concentration estimates requires the use of training data from calibration “surrogates,” which can yield diminished predictive performance relative to targeted analysis. To evaluate performance differences between targeted and qNTA approaches, we defined new metrics that convey predictive accuracy, uncertainty (using 95% inverse confidence intervals), and reliability (the extent to which confidence intervals contain true values). We calculated and examined these newly defined metrics across five quantitative approaches applied to a mixture of 29 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). The quantitative approaches spanned a traditional targeted design using chemical-specific calibration curves to a generalizable qNTA design using bootstrap-sampled calibration values from “global” chemical surrogates. As expected, the targeted approaches performed best, with major benefits realized from matched calibration curves and internal standard correction. In comparison to the benchmark targeted approach, the most generalizable qNTA approach (using “global” surrogates) showed a decrease in accuracy by a factor of ~4, an increase in uncertainty by a factor of ~1000, and a decrease in reliability by ~5%, on average. Using “expert-selected” surrogates ( n = 3) instead of “global” surrogates ( n = 25) for qNTA yielded improvements in predictive accuracy (by ~1.5×) and uncertainty (by ~70×) but at the cost of further-reduced reliability (by ~5%). Overall, our results illustrate the utility of qNTA approaches for a subclass of emerging contaminants and present a framework on which to develop new approaches for more complex use cases. Graphical Abstract

Pu, Shirley (ORCID:0000000201223797)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing the flux effect on the irradiation embrittlement of reactor pressure vessel steels using machine learning

In-service exposure to high-energy neutrons embrittles reactor pressure vessel (RPV) steels. An increase in the yield stress (Δσ y ) results in a corresponding increase in the brittle to ductile transition temperature (ΔT c ). Most existing models underpredict ΔT c at higher fluence following accelerated irradiations in test reactors. High fluence, up to 10 20 n/cm 2 in some cases, will be reached over extended RPV vessel operation of 80 years, or more, at low service flux. Embrittlement has been extensively studied in accelerated, higher flux test reaction irradiations. However, the use of test reactor data naturally raises the question of flux effects. Here, this study used a machine learning approach trained on a set of hardening data, covering a wide range of flux, fluence, and steel compositions to determine the interactive effects of both irradiation and material variables on Δσ y . The analysis included machine learning-based cross-plots of the variable dependence of Δσ y for six core steels (i.e., CM6, LC, LD, LG, LH, and LI), with controlled differences in their Cu and Ni contents. A primary objective is to evaluate an effective to actual fluence (Φt e /Φt) ratio, as a function of flux, fluence, and steel composition. This is information critical to properly use intermediate flux-high fluence data in calibrating a low flux-high fluence embrittlement model. The predicted Φt e /Φt is reasonably consistent with estimates previously derived from a physics-based solute recombination trap model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Part-scale microstructure prediction for laser powder bed fusion Ti-6Al-4V using a hybrid mechanistic and machine learning model

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) Ti-6Al-4V is widely studied for use in structural applications in aerospace and medical industries, but mechanical anisotropy and microstructural inhomogeneity prohibits its wider adoption. Although successful microstructure prediction models have been developed, a remaining challenge is their limited integration across length/time scales and validation by experimental studies. Here, this work proposes a physics-augmented machine learning surrogate model to unite predictions of LPBF temperature, β phase morphology and texture, and α/α’ formation into a single framework that is calibrated and validated with experiments. First, a phase field (PF) model of the martensitic β→α’ transformation is developed and calibrated using data from in-situ synchrotron cyclic heating/cooling studies quantifying the variation of α phase fraction with time. In parallel, an established finite difference-Monte Carlo (FDMC) model predicts the part-scale temperature profile and β grain formation during solidification. A dataset is developed using LPBF cyclic temperature descriptors from the FDMC model as inputs and corresponding α/α’ phase fraction and width from the PF model as outputs. Five machine learning (ML) regression models are tested and optimized, having mean absolute error in testing ≤ 4 %, and the k-nearest neighbors (KNN) model is selected as the best performing. The KNN model is called at the nodal level during post-processing of the FDMC model to replace and downscale the response of the PF model. The combined agility and accuracy of the hybrid FDMC-ML model enables part-scale microstructure predictions that can be further used for property predictions to accelerate AM process optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Economic analysis of CCUS: Accelerated development for CO 2 EOR and storage in residual oil zones under the context of 45Q tax credit

Residual oil zones (ROZ) undergoing CO 2 Enhanced Oil Recovery (CO 2 -EOR) may benefit from specific strategies to maximize their value. We evaluated several strategies for producing from a Permian Basin, West Texas, USA field’s ROZ. This ROZ lies below the main pay zone (MPZ) of the field. Such brownfield ROZs occur in the Permian Basin and elsewhere. Since brownfield ROZs are hydraulically connected to the MPZs, development sequences and schemes influence oil production, CO 2 storage, and net present value (NPV). We conducted economic assessments of various CO 2 injection/production schemes in the stacked ROZ-MPZ reservoir based on flow simulations of a high-resolution geocellular model built from wireline logs and core data and calibrated through production history matching. Flow simulations of water alternating gas (WAG) injection, such as switching injection from the MPZ to the ROZ and commingled production, were studied. Simulation results showed that simultaneous CO 2 injection into the MPZ and ROZ lead to the largest oil production and, generally, the largest NPV. If instead, CO 2 was simultaneously injected into the MPZ and ROZ, then into the ROZ alone, this maximized CO 2 storage. CO 2 storage can be used as a tax credit under the Internal Revenue Code, Section 45Q. Storage performance depends on the development approach and WAG ratio. Developing the ROZ increased storage compared to only producing from the MPZ. The WAG ratio to maximize oil production did not always yield the largest NPV. These findings are potentially applied to other Brownfield ROZs, which are common below San Andres reservoirs in the Permian Basin and other basins. ROZ development can increase oilfields’ NPV and carbon storage potential. Our study can serve as an analog for similar reservoirs. Here this work provides valuable insights into the further optimization of brownfield ROZ development and information for operators to plan to develop stacked ROZ-MPZ reservoirs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ten questions concerning low-cost indoor air quality sensors: Perspectives from research and practice

Low-cost indoor air quality (IAQ) sensors are increasingly being used in homes and commercial and public buildings, driven by growing concerns about the impact of air on health, cognitive performance, and occupant wellbeing. These sensors offer a potentially transformative opportunity to increase spatial and temporal coverage of IAQ monitoring at a fraction of the cost of conventional reference instruments. However, their widespread use raises questions around accuracy, calibration, placement, data handling and interpretation, and integration into existing standards and workflows. This paper presents ten critical questions concerning the use of low-cost IAQ sensors in buildings, drawing on the latest empirical research, field deployments, and emerging practice. It discusses potential frameworks for deployment and evaluation, examines current sensor capabilities for measuring common pollutants, identifies methodological gaps in validation and uncertainty quantification, and outlines the extent to which existing IAQ standards can accommodate sensor-based evidence. The paper also explores how monitoring needs and deployment models vary by building type, the potential of real-time IAQ data to support building operations, and the ethical and legal implications of widespread sensor use. While significant challenges remain in ensuring data quality and building stakeholder trust, new applications are emerging through open data initiatives and advances in analytics and visualization. As the technology, science, and standards co-evolve, low-cost IAQ sensors are poised to become integral to routine building operation, building science, and environmental health research.

Parkinson, Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing and high-sensitivity sensor spatial surveying of stream temperature

Measuring surface water temperature spatial variability is needed to estimate the interaction between surface water and groundwater, evaluate fish habitat and thermal inertia, and to estimate streamflow frequency and duration. Fiber optic distributed temperature sensing (FO-DTS) has been used in rivers and lakes, providing high-resolution and sensitive temperature monitoring over large temporal and spatial scales. However, in streams with cobbly or bedrock-lined streambeds and variable bathymetry, use of FO-DTS to measure temperature close to the surface water and groundwater interface can be challenging if even feasible. FO-DTS can also be costly, involve difficult installations, and require an advanced understanding of the technology, calibration, and data processing. In this study, we compared FO-DTS stream temperature survey results to an alternative temperature survey method employing a towed transect of high-resolution temperature loggers spaced at 1-m and transported in the stream along the study reach, to measure the spatial distribution of stream-water temperature in East Fork Poplar Creek near Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA. We assessed the applicability and limitations of the two methods, and quantitatively compared in-situ temperature survey results measured simultaneously with each method. Regression results showed strong temporal and spatial correlation between the two methods. Differences were only elevated near the stream banks in areas that were coincident with correlation slope deviations from unity, which was attributed to shallower water and lower data density. Kriging standard errors were also low at channel center with minor increases near the stream banks. Furthermore, the results suggested that the array of the individual temperature sensors can provide a practical alternative to FO-DTS for thermal characterization of surface water, providing slightly lower spatial and temporal resolution, but with higher accuracy of temperature measurement, with greater simplicity, and with a broader range of conditions where it may be applied.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Crystal plasticity modeling and analysis for the transition from intergranular to transgranular failure in nickel-based alloy Inconel 740H at elevated temperature

The precipitation-strengthened Nickel alloy Inconel® 740H® (IN740H) exhibits increased ductility at higher applied strain rates during quasi-static tensile tests at an elevated temperature of 760°C. The examination of fracture surfaces in this context reveals a noteworthy transition of underlying fracture mechanisms from transgranular to intergranular fracture as the applied strain rate decreases from 1×10 -3 / s to 0.83×10 -4 / s . To thoroughly understand the mechanical response of IN740H under these conditions, this study develops a crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) model. Further, this model incorporates various deformation mechanisms including dislocation slips, climb, and grain boundary sliding, which are relevant to the test conditions. The model is calibrated using data from both tensile tests at different strain rates and creep tests across a broad stress range at 760°C, enabling the accurate determination of model parameters for each mechanism. Simulation results well captured the experimental observations of different failure modes. At higher strain rates, the model shows a dominance of dislocation slip leading to heterogeneous plastic deformation and formation of transgranular shear bands causing the failure, while at lower strain rates, an increased activity of grain boundary sliding causes grain boundaries crack leading to intergranular failure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of a compact fast-neutron spectrometer for nuclear emergency response applications

We have developed a Compact Fast Neutron Spectrometer (CFNS) for passive assay of special nuclear material (SNM) through the observation of fast neutrons. The CFNS consists of eight organic glass scintillators (OGS) coupled to silicon photomultipliers and a waveform digitizer, which are integrated within a human-portable box. The CFNS determines the neutron energy profile by spectrum unfolding using the Maximum-Likelihood Expectation Maximization method. The detector acquisition system was optimized to have a dynamic range of up to 10 MeV neutron energy. Bulk special nuclear material (SNM) measurements from the National Criticality Experiments Research Center were analyzed for SNM validation/examination. Additionally, the results show that the CFNS can be used to distinguish between fission and (α, n) neutron emitters, regardless of intervening material type (Cu and polyethylene) and thickness, by taking the ratio of neutron counts at different regions in the unfolded energy spectrum. Additionally, by fitting an exponential curve to the unfolded energy spectrum of PuO 2 and Pu neutron emitters, the CFNS showed the ability of distinguishing between pure Pu oxide, pure Pu metal and mixed oxide-metal configurations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

The large-area hybrid-optics CLAS12 RICH: First years of data-taking

The CLAS12 deep-inelastic scattering experiment at the upgraded 12 GeV continuous electron beam accelerator facility of Jefferson Lab conjugates luminosity and wide acceptance to study the 3D nucleon structure in the yet poorly explored valence region, and to perform precision measurements in hadron spectroscopy. A large area ring-imaging Cherenkov detector has been designed to achieve the required hadron identification in the momentum range from 3 GeV/c to 8 GeV/c, with the kaon rate about one order of magnitude lower than the rate of pions and protons. The adopted solution comprises aerogel radiator and composite mirrors in a novel hybrid optics design, where either direct or reflected light could be imaged in a high-packed and high-segmented photon detector. The first RICH module was assembled during the second half of 2017 and installed at the beginning of January 2018, in time for the start of the experiment. The second RICH module, planned with the goal to be ready for the beginning of the operation with polarized targets, has been timely built despite the complications caused by the pandemic crisis and successfully installed in June 2022. Finally, the detector performance is here discussed with emphasis on the operation and stability during the data-taking, calibration and alignment procedures, reconstruction and pattern recognition algorithms, and particle identification.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Current and Future Global Lake Methane Emissions: A Process‐Based Modeling Analysis

Abstract Freshwater ecosystem contributions to the global methane budget remains the most uncertain among natural sources. With warming and accompanying carbon release from thawed permafrost and thermokarst lake expansion, the increase of methane emissions could be large. However, the impact and relative importance of various factors related to warming remain uncertain. Based on diverse lake characteristics incorporated in modeling and observational data, we calibrate and verify a lake biogeochemistry model. The model is then applied to estimate global lake methane emissions and examine the impacts of temperature increase for the first and the last decades of the 21st century under different climate scenarios. We find that current emissions are 24.0 ± 8.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 from lakes larger than 0.1 km 2 , accounting for 11% of the global total natural source as estimated based on atmospheric inversion. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario suggest a 58%–86% growth in emissions from lakes. Our model sensitivity analysis indicates that additional carbon substrates from thawing permafrost may enhance methane production under warming in the Arctic. Warming enhanced methane oxidation in lake water can be an effective sink to reduce the net release from global lakes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Congo Basin Water Balance and Terrestrial Fluxes Inferred From Satellite Observations of the Isotopic Composition of Water Vapor

Large spatio-temporal gradients in the Congo basin vegetation and rainfall are observed. However, its water-balance (evapotranspiration minus precipitation, or ET - P) is typically measured at basin-scales, limited primarily by river-discharge data, spatial resolution of terrestrial water storage measurements, and poorly constrained ET. We use observations of the isotopic composition of water vapor to quantify the spatio-temporal variability of net surface water fluxes across the Congo Basin between 2003 and 2018. These data are calibrated at basin scale using satellite gravity and total Congo river discharge measurements and then used to estimate time-varying ET - P over four quadrants representing the Congo Basin, providing first estimates of this kind for the region. We find that the multi-year record, seasonality, and interannual variability of ET - P from both the isotopes and the gravity/river discharge based estimates are consistent. Additionally, we use precipitation and gravity-based estimates with our water vapor isotope-based ET - P to calculate time and space averaged ET and net river discharge within the Congo Basin. These quadrant-scale moisture flux estimates indicate (a) substantial recycling of moisture in the Congo Basin (temporally and spatially averaged ET/P > 70%), consistent with models and visible light-based ET estimates, and (b) net river outflow is largest in the Western Congo where there are more rivers and higher flow rates. Our results confirm the importance of ET in modulating the Congo water cycle relative to other water sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Calibrating Microscopic Car-Following Models for Adaptive Cruise Control Vehicles: Multiobjective Approach

Adaptive cruise control (ACC) vehicles are the first step toward comprehensive vehicle automation. However, the impacts of such vehicles on the underlying traffic flow are not yet clear. Therefore, it is of interest to accurately model vehicle-level dynamics of commercially available ACC vehicles so that they may be used in further modeling efforts to quantify the impact of commercially available ACC vehicles on traffic flow. Importantly, not only model selection but also the calibration approach and error metric used for calibration are critical to accurately model ACC vehicle behavior. In this work, we explore the question of how to calibrate car following models to describe ACC vehicle dynamics. Specifically, we apply a multi-objective calibration approach to understand the tradeoff between calibrating model parameters to minimize speed error vs. spacing error. Three different car-following models are calibrated for data from six vehicles. The results are in line with recent literature and verify that targeting a low spacing error does not compromise the speed accuracy whether the opposite is not true for modeling ACC vehicle dynamics.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal renormalization of multiscale systems

While model order reduction is a promising approach in dealing with multi-scale time-dependent systems that are too large or too expensive to simulate for long times, the resulting reduced order models can suffer from instabilities. We have recently developed a time-dependent renormalization approach to stabilize such reduced models. In the current work, we extend this framework by introducing a parameter that controls the time-decay of the memory of such models and optimally selecting this parameter based on limited fully resolved simulations. First, we demonstrate our framework on the inviscid Burgers equation whose solution develops a finite-time singularity. Our renormalized reduced order models are stable and accurate for long times while using for their calibration only data from a full order simulation before the occurrence of the singularity. Furthermore, we apply this framework to the 3D Euler equations of incompressible fluid flow, where the problem of finite-time singularity formation is still open and where brute force simulation is only feasible for short times. Our approach allows us to obtain for the first time a perturbatively renormalizable model which is stable for long times and includes all the complex effects present in the 3D Euler dynamics. We find that, in each application, the renormalization coefficients display algebraic decay with increasing resolution, and that the parameter which controls the time-decay of the memory is problem-dependent.

Price, Jacob↗
DOE OSTI2020

Weak lensing of Type Ia Supernovae from the Dark Energy Survey

ABSTRACT We consider the effects of weak gravitational lensing on observations of 196 spectroscopically confirmed Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) from years 1 to 3 of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We simultaneously measure both the angular correlation function and the non-Gaussian skewness caused by weak lensing. This approach has the advantage of being insensitive to the intrinsic dispersion of SNe Ia magnitudes. We model the amplitude of both effects as a function of σ8, and find σ8 =1.2$^{+0.9}_{-0.8}$. We also apply our method to a subsample of 488 SNe from the Joint Light-curve Analysis (JLA; chosen to match the redshift range we use for this work), and find σ8 =0.8$^{+1.1}_{-0.7}$. The comparable uncertainty in σ8 between DES–SN and the larger number of SNe from JLA highlights the benefits of homogeneity of the DES–SN sample, and improvements in the calibration and data analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cosmic shear cosmology beyond two-point statistics: a combined peak count and correlation function analysis of DES-Y1

ABSTRACT We constrain cosmological parameters from a joint cosmic shear analysis of peak-counts and the two-point shear correlation functions, as measured from the Dark Energy Survey (DES-Y1). We find the structure growth parameter $S_8\equiv \sigma _8\sqrt{\Omega _{\rm m}/0.3} = 0.766^{+0.033}_{-0.038}$ which, at 4.8 per cent precision, provides one of the tightest constraints on S8 from the DES-Y1 weak lensing data. In our simulation-based method we determine the expected DES-Y1 peak-count signal for a range of cosmologies sampled in four w cold dark matter parameters (Ωm, σ8, h, w0). We also determine the joint covariance matrix with over 1000 realizations at our fiducial cosmology. With mock DES-Y1 data we calibrate the impact of photometric redshift and shear calibration uncertainty on the peak-count, marginalizing over these uncertainties in our cosmological analysis. Using dedicated training samples we show that our measurements are unaffected by mass resolution limits in the simulation, and that our constraints are robust against uncertainty in the effect of baryon feedback. Accurate modelling for the impact of intrinsic alignments on the tomographic peak-count remains a challenge, currently limiting our exploitation of cross-correlated peak counts between high and low redshift bins. We demonstrate that once calibrated, a fully tomographic joint peak-count and correlation functions analysis has the potential to reach a 3 per cent precision on S8 for DES-Y1. Our methodology can be adopted to model any statistic that is sensitive to the non-Gaussian information encoded in the shear field. In order to accelerate the development of these beyond-two-point cosmic shear studies, our simulations are made available to the community upon request.

Harnois-Déraps, Joachim↗