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At least 235 records · Page 13

Differential Muon Tomography to Continuously Monitor Changes in the Composition of Subsurface Fluids

Muon tomography has been used to seek hidden chambers in Egyptian pyramids and image subsurface features in volcanoes. It seemed likely that it could be used to image injected, supercritical carbon dioxide as it is emplaced in porous geological structures being used for carbon sequestration, and also to check on subsequent leakage. It should work equally well in any other application where there are two fluids of different densities, such as water and oil, or carbon dioxide and heavy oil in oil reservoirs. Continuous monitoring of movement of oil and/or flood fluid during enhanced oil recovery activities for managing injection is important for economic reasons. Checking on leakage for geological carbon storage is essential both for safety and for economic purposes. Current technology (for example, repeat 3D seismic surveys) is expensive and episodic. Muons are generated by high- energy cosmic rays resulting from supernova explosions, and interact with gas molecules in the atmosphere. This innovation has produced a theoretical model of muon attenuation in the thickness of rock above and within a typical sandstone reservoir at a depth of between 1.00 and 1.25 km. Because this first simulation was focused on carbon sequestration, the innovators chose depths sufficient for the pressure there to ensure that the carbon dioxide would be supercritical. This innovation demonstrates for the first time the feasibility of using the natural cosmic-ray muon flux to generate continuous tomographic images of carbon dioxide in a storage site. The muon flux is attenuated to an extent dependent on, amongst other things, the density of the materials through which it passes. The density of supercritical carbon dioxide is only three quarters that of the brine in the reservoir that it displaces. The first realistic simulations indicate that changes as small as 0.4% in the storage site bulk density could be detected (equivalent to 7% of the porosity, in this specific case). The initial muon flux is effectively constant at the surface of the Earth. Sensitivity of the method would be decreased with increasing depth. However, sensitivity can be improved by emplacing a greater array of particle detectors at the base of the reservoir.

Coleman, Max↗

Co-optimizing water-alternating-carbon dioxide injection projects using a machine learning assisted computational framework

In this report, a robust machine-learning-based computational framework that couples multi-layer neural network (MLNN) proxies and a multi-objective particle swarm optimizer (MOPSO) to design water-alternating-carbon dioxide injection (CO 2 -WAG) projects is presented. The proposed optimization protocol considers various objectives, including oil recovery and CO 2 storage volume. Expert MLNN systems are trained and employed as surrogate models of the high-fidelity compositional simulator in the optimization workflow. When multiple objective functions are considered, two approaches are employed to treat the objectives: the weighted sum method and the Pareto-front-based scheme. A field-scale implementation focusing on tertiary recovery in the Morrow B formation at Farnsworth Unit (FWU) is presented. The developed Pareto-optimal solutions indicate the maximal available oil production can be 1.64 × 10 7 barrels and maximal carbon storage can achieve 2.35 × 10 7 tons. Trade-offs factor is defined to divide the constructed Pareto front into 4 sections with the trade-off factors’ value ranges from 0.35 to 49.9. This work also compares the optimum solution found by the aggregative objective function and the solution repository covered by the Pareto front that considers the physical and operational constraints and reduces uncertainties involved by the multi-objective optimization process. Our comparison indicates multiple solutions exist to satisfy the objective criteria of the WAG design, and these results cannot be found using the traditional weighted sum method. The Pareto front solution can provide more options for project designers, but decisions regarding necessary trade-offs must be made using the solution repository to balance the project economics and CO 2 storage amount.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Iron transformation mediates phosphate retention across a permafrost thaw gradient

Phosphorus limits primary productivity in many (Sub-)Arctic ecosystems and may constrain biological carbon sequestration. Iron (III) oxides strongly bind phosphate in soils but can dissolve under flooded, reducing conditions induced by permafrost thaw and ground collapse. The ability for iron to regulate phosphate storage and solubility in thawing permafrost landscapes remains unclear. Here, iron-rich sediments containing iron oxides and organic-bound iron were incubated with or without added phosphate in soils along a permafrost thaw gradient to evaluate how iron-phosphate associations respond to thaw-induced redox shifts. Iron oxides partially dissolved and released sorbed phosphate when incubated in soils underlain by degraded permafrost. Iron complexed by organic matter remained stable but provided no phosphate binding capacity. Phosphate addition enhanced iron oxide dissolution and phosphorus concentrations in associated microbial biomass. Our study demonstrates that the capacity for iron oxides to immobilize and retain phosphate in permafrost peatlands decreases with permafrost thaw.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Soil Carbon Saturation: What Do We Really Know?

Managing soils to increase organic carbon storage presents a potential opportunity to mitigate and adapt to global change challenges, while providing numerous co-benefits and ecosystem services. However, soils differ widely in their potential for carbon sequestration, and knowledge of biophysical limits to carbon accumulation may aid in informing priority regions. Consequently, there is great interest in assessing whether soils exhibit a maximum capacity for storing organic carbon, particularly within organo–mineral associations given the finite nature of reactive minerals in a soil. While the concept of soil carbon saturation has existed for over 25 years, recent studies have argued for and against its importance. Here, we summarize the conceptual understanding of soil carbon saturation at both micro- and macro-scales, define key terminology, and address common concerns and misconceptions. We review methods used to quantify soil carbon saturation, highlighting the theory and potential caveats of each approach. Critically, we explore the utility of the principles of soil carbon saturation for informing carbon accumulation, vulnerability to loss, and representations in process-based models. We highlight key knowledge gaps and propose next steps for furthering our mechanistic understanding of soil carbon saturation and its implications for soil management.

Environmental sciences↗

Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS): Achieving Net Zero and Beyond

This work evaluates the life cycle environmental performance of Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) across different biomass types, processing technologies, and capture rates. Preliminary results suggest that carbon neutrality could be achieved if 35% biomass is co-fired with 90% carbon capture and sequestration.

Carlson, Derrick R.↗

Enabling site-specific well leakage risk estimation during geologic carbon sequestration using a modular deep-learning-based wellbore leakage model

Geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is a promising technology for mitigating net carbon emissions and growing climate concern by storing CO 2 in reservoirs. Oil and gas brownfields are an attractive option for CO 2 storage, but these sites have many historical wellbores from petroleum production and can be a potential leakage pathway for CO 2 or formation brine. Therefore, risk management of GCS operations requires an assessment of potential well leakage. Due to the high uncertainty of the system, stochastic approaches are ideal for quantifying the range of risk behaviors, but they must be computationally efficient in the face of complex physics. Here, we develop a new physics-centric deep learning wellbore model to predict the leakage of CO 2 and brine through leaky wellbores. Multi-physics numerical simulations were used to generate data sets, and physics-informed features were introduced. Neural networks were optimized with an automated searching algorithm. Feature analysis quantifies the impact of each feature on model prediction and confirms the role of physics-inspired parameters. The model shows high predictive performance across a wide range of geologic and injection conditions and well attributes. In conclusion, a case study illustrates how the model is applied to assess well leakage in GCS operations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Leveraging the bioeconomy for carbon drawdown

Stringent climate change mitigation scenarios rely on large-scale drawdown of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Amongst drawdown technologies, bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) has received considerable attention in the climate mitigation literature. Recently, attention has shifted further from a relatively narrow focus on BECCS to a broader focus on Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS). The concept of BiCRS has the potential to enable a future where the climate mitigation value of biomass resources is more valuable than the energy value, due to the potential to remove and sequester large quantities atmospheric CO2. This article provides a qualitative overview of prominent BiCRS technologies from which a set of the most promising technologies are assessed quantitively through life cycle assessment. There are numerous opportunities to incorporate carbon removal and management within the bioeconomy, but the majority of immediate carbon removal potential exists in four bioproducts: bioenergy, bioplastics, biochar, and wood products. We analyze the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and disposition of sequestered carbon over 10 000 years for four bioproducts representative of each broader category: an advanced BECCS pathway, biopolyethylene, oriented strand board, and biochar soil amendment. We find that the BECCS pathway has the greatest magnitude and durability of CO2 storage over all time horizons. However, non-BECCS pathways achieve 34–64% of the drawdown magnitude relative to BECCS and retain 55–67% of their initial drawdown over 100 years (central estimate). We identify three engineering strategies for enhancing carbon drawdown: reducing biomass supply chain emissions, maximizing carbon stored in long-lived products, and extending the term of carbon storage. Finally, we highlight the need to characterize both the magnitude and permanence of carbon drawdown as a means for policymakers and technology developers to deploy limited biomass resources to maximize mitigation benefits.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Leveraging the bioeconomy for carbon drawdown

Stringent climate change mitigation scenarios rely on large-scale drawdown of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Amongst drawdown technologies, bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) has received considerable attention in the climate mitigation literature. Recently, attention has shifted further from a relatively narrow focus on BECCS to a broader focus on Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS). The concept of BiCRS has the potential to enable a future where the climate mitigation value of biomass resources is more valuable than the energy value, due to the potential to remove and sequester large quantities atmospheric CO 2 . This article provides a qualitative overview of prominent BiCRS technologies from which a set of the most promising technologies are assessed quantitively through life cycle assessment. There are numerous opportunities to incorporate carbon removal and management within the bioeconomy, but the majority of immediate carbon removal potential exists in four bioproducts: bioenergy, bioplastics, biochar, and wood products. We analyze the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and disposition of sequestered carbon over 10,000 years for four bioproducts representative of each broader category: an advanced BECCS pathway, biopolyethylene, oriented strand board, and biochar soil amendment. We find that the BECCS pathway has the greatest magnitude and durability of CO 2 storage over all time horizons. However, non-BECCS pathways achieve 34–64% of the drawdown magnitude relative to BECCS and retain 55–67% of their initial drawdown over 100 years (central estimate). We identify three engineering strategies for enhancing carbon drawdown: reducing biomass supply chain emissions, maximizing carbon stored in long lived products, and extending the term of carbon storage. Finally, we highlight the need to characterize both the magnitude and permanence of carbon drawdown as a means for policymakers and technology develo pers to deploy limited biomass resources to maximize mitigation benefits.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Combined Techno-Economic Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment of an Integrated Direct Air Capture System with Advanced Algal Biofuel Production

The continuous increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere since the First Industrial Revolution correlates convincingly with the ongoing rise of the Earth's global average temperature contributing to climate change. As a response, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies are being implemented to mitigate anthropogenic CO2 emissions by capturing CO2 from high emitting point sources, such as power plants, refineries, and cement factories, and subsequently buried in geological formations underground for long term storage. Recently direct air capture (DAC) has emerged as a promising alternative technology that captures CO2 directly from the atmosphere for use or sequestration. This study investigates the potential synergistic benefits of integrating a solid amine-based DAC system with advanced algal biofuel production in photobioreactors (PBRs). DAC utilization allows the removal of atmospheric CO2 while also decoupling algae production facilities from anthropogenic point CO2 sources and avoiding the cost and logistics challenges of transporting CO2 long distances to remote facilities. Techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment are performed to assess the economic and environmental benefits of heat and mass integration between the DAC and the PBR for biofuel production. The DAC-PBR system integration also considers on-site flue gas handling options, DAC capital utilization, the tradeoff between centralization or decentralization of key unit operations, and the PBR array. This presentation will discuss how optimizing DAC-PBR process integration can enhance the algal biofuel's economic and environmental sustainability and the prospect of DAC enabling the circular carbon economy.

algal biofuel production↗

Forest carbon sequestration on the west coast, USA: Role of species, productivity, and stockability

Forest ecosystems store large amounts of carbon and can be important sources, or sinks, of the atmospheric carbon dioxide that is contributing to global warming. Understanding the carbon storage potential of different forests and their response to management and disturbance events are fundamental to developing policies and scenarios to partially offset greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of live tree carbon accumulation are handled differently in different models, with inconsistent results. We developed growth-and-yield style models to predict stand-level live tree carbon density as a function of stand age in all vegetation types of the coastal Pacific region, US (California, Oregon, and Washington), from 7,523 national forest inventory plots. We incorporated site productivity and stockability within the Chapman-Richards equation and tested whether intensively managed private forests behaved differently from less managed public forests. We found that the best models incorporated stockability in the equation term controlling stand carrying capacity, and site productivity in the equation terms controlling the growth rate and shape of the curve. RMSEs ranged from 10 to 137 Mg C/ha for different vegetation types. There was not a significant effect of ownership over the standard industrial rotation length (~50 yrs) for the productive Douglas-fir/western hemlock zone, indicating that differences in stockability and productivity captured much of the variation attributed to management intensity. Our models suggest that doubling the rotation length on these intensively managed lands from 35 to 70 years would result in 2.35 times more live tree carbon stored on the landscape. These findings are at odds with some studies that have projected higher carbon densities with stand age for the same vegetation types, and have not found an increase in yields (on an annual basis) with longer rotations. We suspect that differences are primarily due to the application of yield curves developed from fully-stocked, undisturbed, single-species, “normal” stands without accounting for the substantial proportion of forests that don’t meet those assumptions. The carbon accumulation curves developed here can be applied directly in growth-and-yield style projection models, and used to validate the predictions of ecophysiological, cohort, or single-tree style models being used to project carbon futures for forests in the region. Our approach may prove useful for developing robust models in other forest types.

Chisholm, Paul J. (ORCID:0000000238784707)↗

Characterization of Carbon Sequestration Targets of the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain and Adjacent Offshore Region

Lower to mid-Cretaceous age rock formations were identified on the onshore Mid-Atlantic U.S. Coastal Plain and offshore northern Baltimore Canyon Trough (BCT) that show great potential as reservoirs for carbon sequestration. These targets are constrained using a sequence stratigraphic approach by integration of multi-channel seismic, geophysical well-log, core, and biostratigraphic datasets. In the onshore coastal plain of New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland, the Lower Cretaceous Waste Gate Formation and mid-Cretaceous Potomac Formation/Group were divided into three major sequences (Waste Gate-Potomac Unit I, Potomac Unit II, and Potomac Unit III). The analysis concluded that Waste Gate-Potomac Unit I sequence is most suitable for carbon storage, as it has thick, correlatable sands in New Jersey and Maryland that are well confined in New Jersey, and could store potentially large volumes of CO2 (~ 8-34 Gt). In the offshore, we evaluate the mid-Cretaceous Logan Canyon Formation which we divide into three sequences (LC3, LC2, and LC1). All three sequences show potential for large volumes of CO2 storage (~5.9 Gt on the Great Stone Dome (GSD); preliminary volume estimates in the MRCSP ATLAS are currently being updated by MAOCSRAP). The Logan Canyon Sands are an excellent target for carbon storage in the offshore Baltimore Canyon Trough; they are thick, correlatable sands with high permeabilities and porosities, and are confined by the thick Dawson Canyon Shale. Sands are particularly thick, porous, and very permeable in wells on the GSD, which provides a great structural trap, and as such is a world-class target for carbon sequestration.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Wabash CarbonSAFE (Subtask 3.1 - Application of the NRAP Tools to the Wabash CarbonSAFE Site for Risk Assessment Associated with Geologic Carbon Storage Activities)

This report documents a risk assessment of CO 2 containment loss and induced shear failure due to geologic carbon storage at the Wabash CarbonSAFE site. The operator, Wabash Valley Resources, has proposed adapting the onsite integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) facilities to produce hydrogen and injecting the byproduct CO 2 stream into the subsurface Potosi dolomite formation. The purpose of this study is to assess (1) CO 2 sequestration performance relative to the CarbonSAFE goals of storing 50 Mt over 30 years, (2) the risk of containment loss due to leakage along a wellbore and into an overlying aquifer, and (3) the state of stress and risk of reactivating existing fractures. This study relied upon the initial site characterization work performed by the Illinois State Geologic Survey (ISGS) along with analogue data collected from other carbon sequestration projects in the region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Non-Invasive Approach for Elucidating the Spatial Distribution of In-Situ Stress in Deep Subsurface Geologic Formations Considered for CO 2 Storage (Final Report)

The primary objectives of this project were to: develop a new, non-invasive method to define the orientation and magnitude of in-situ stresses in deep geologic formations (depths that exceed 1500 meters) considered for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration; to demonstrate the method at a real field site; and, to extend current technical capabilities and reduce costs of acquiring information about deep-stress fields. This investigation was segmented into five tasks, including Project Management (Task 1) and four technical tasks (Tasks 2 through 5). The results of the technical tasks are described in this document.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Comparison of MeshGraphNet Techniques for Subsurface Behavior Prediction during CO2 Sequestration

Carbon sequestration is a vital part of the effort to mitigate anthropogenic climate change. Previously, we have shown that Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) provide the ability to extract meaningful insights during prediction of subsurface behavior in carbon storage projects. However, these models have struggled with long-term prediction accuracy due to error accumulation caused by autoregressive prediction. This research leverages the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project (IBDP) dataset to examine strategies for minimizing loss over time in a MeshGraphNet GNN model to improve reliability of predictions while minimizing inferencing time.

Holcomb, Paul↗

Emerging concepts in intermediate carbon dioxide emplacement to support carbon dioxide removal

Substantial upscaling of carbon dioxide capture is possible in the coming decades but existing solutions for storage are projected to be limited in annual capacity by as much as 2–10 GtCO 2 per year until mid-century. Temporary storage of CO 2 in a solid or liquid state could prove useful for filling this gap in capacity, until more permanent and ideally lucrative CO 2 sequestration options come online. There are several concepts for reversible solid-state and chemical CO 2 storage, but their advantages and limitations have yet to be reviewed in this context. This article focuses on the physical and chemical aspects of CO 2 storage via liquid and solid chemical carriers and sorbents, and gives an overview of the energetics around their use, as well as prospects for their future development. Exciting opportunities for coupling capture and medium to high maturity multi-year storage technologies could support carbon removal in the coming decades. Highlights of the analysis are the remarkable storage capacity of oxalic acid and formic acid (CO 2 -density of 1857 kg m –3 and 1152 kg m –3 , compared with condensed liquid CO 2 at 993–1096 kg m –3 , respectively), the relative scalability and compatibility of carbonate salts for stationary storage with direct air capture, and the potential promise of multiple carriers for CO 2 transportation. Solid sorbents do not achieve such ultra-high storage capacities, but could improve storage over compressed gas tanks on a capacity and energetics basis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate and Anthropogenic Controls on Blue Carbon Sequestration in Hudson River Tidal Marsh, Piermont, New York

Tidal marshes globally are experiencing erosion with sea level rise. In order to adaptively plan for essential marsh preservation, we recognize the importance of the investigation of marsh archives for the perspective they provide toward resilience. Our objective in this study is to examine the relationship of tidal marsh carbon sequestration with both climate change and human impact throughout past centuries and millennia. A Hudson River marsh sediment core spanning the last 2000 years is analyzed for bulk loss on ignition (LOI), bulk density, sedimentation rate, carbon (C) and mineral flux, and x-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis including lead, copper, titanium and potassium. We compare this record to previously established pollen and spore stratigraphy from the same site, along with an extensive macrofossil based AMS 14C chronology based upon both cores. Carbon accumulation generally follows sediment accumulation rates, which were higher than 200 g C m−2 yr−1 prior to 1500 years ago. Declines in carbon storage rate during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) are linked to drought, fire, and charcoal, while lesser declines during the Little Ice Age (LIA) are linked to cooling and a shorter growing season. Subsequent human impact with marsh haying practices also led to carbon accumulation rate decline to 100 g C m−2 yr−1. Increases in C sequestration rates in recent decades may be attributable to nitrogen pollution of the estuary, invasive plants, and/or increased flooding, but the lack of mineral sediment threatens their stability. Ecosystem function is declining with the loss of foundational species, and the crisis is deepening for preservation of this habitat. We strongly recommend strategies for minimizing marsh loss.

Climate controls↗

Joint physics-based and data-driven time-lapse seismic inversion: Mitigating data scarcity

In carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), developing rapid and effective imaging techniques is crucial for real-time monitoring of the spatial and temporal dynamics of CO 2 propagation during/after injection. With continuing improvements in computational power and data storage, data-driven techniques based on machine learning (ML) have been effectively applied to seismic inverse problems. In particular, ML helps alleviate the ill-posedness and high computational cost of full-waveform inversion (FWI). However, such data-driven inversion techniques require massive high-quality training data sets to ensure prediction accuracy, which hinders their application to time-lapse monitoring of CO 2 sequestration. We propose an efficient “hybrid” time-lapse workflow that combines physics-based FWI and data-driven ML inversion. The scarcity of the available training data is addressed by developing a new data-generation technique with physics constraints. The method is vali dated on a synthetic CO 2 -sequestration model based on the Kimberlina storage reservoir in California. The proposed approach is shown to synthesize a large volume of high-quality, physically realistic training data, which is critically important in accurately characterizing the CO 2 movement in the reservoir. In conclusion, the developed hybrid methodology can also simultaneously predict the variations in velocity and saturation and achieve high spatial resolution in the presence of realistic noise in the data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗