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NASA NTRS1989

A parameterization of eddy transfer coefficients for two-level seasonal statistical dynamical zonally averaged models

This paper examines a parameterization of a quasi-geostrophic eddy transport that takes into account the time variation of eddy transfer coefficients according to Green's (1970) theory. It was found that, in the original eddy transfer relationship of Green, connecting the integral of the northward eddy entropy flux through midlatitudes with the second power of the difference in 500-mb entropy across the region of baroclinic activity, a value of 4 for the exponent is obtained when the temperature gradients at 500 mb are used. When the gradients at 1000 mb are used, an exponent of 1.5 is obtained. The differences in the powers in the eddy transfer relation were explored in a two-level zonally averaged model. It was found that an appropriate choice of power may be of special importance if the model is devised to simulate the seasonal climate cycle or to test astronomical changes inducing different seasonalities.

Neeman, Binyamin U.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Development of a Prototype Model-Form Uncertainty Knowledge Base

Uncertainties are generally classified as either aleatory or epistemic. Aleatory uncertainties are those attributed to random variation, either naturally or through manufacturing processes. Epistemic uncertainties are generally attributed to a lack of knowledge. One type of epistemic uncertainty is called model-form uncertainty. The term model-form means that among the choices to be made during a design process within an analysis, there are different forms of the analysis process, which each give different results for the same configuration at the same flight conditions. Examples of model-form uncertainties include the grid density, grid type, and solver type used within a computational fluid dynamics code, or the choice of the number and type of model elements within a structures analysis. The objectives of this work are to identify and quantify a representative set of model-form uncertainties and to make this information available to designers through an interactive knowledge base (KB). The KB can then be used during probabilistic design sessions, so as to enable the possible reduction of uncertainties in the design process through resource investment. An extensive literature search has been conducted to identify and quantify typical model-form uncertainties present within aerospace design. An initial attempt has been made to assemble the results of this literature search into a searchable KB, usable in real time during probabilistic design sessions. A concept of operations and the basic structure of a model-form uncertainty KB are described. Key operations within the KB are illustrated. Current limitations in the KB, and possible workarounds are explained.

Green, Lawrence L.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Integrated Airport Competition Model, 1998

This paper addresses recent model development by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) and Hague Consulting Group (HCG) concerning long-distance travel. Long-distance travel demand is growing very quickly and raising a great deal of economic and policy issues. There is increasing competition among the main Western European airports, and smaller, regional airports are fighting for market share. New modes of transport, such as high speed rail, are also coming into the picture and affect the mode split for medium distance transport within Europe. Developments such as these are demanding the attention of policy makers and a tool is required for their analysis. For DGCA, Hague Consulting Group has developed a model system to provide answers to the policy questions posed by these expected trends, and to identify areas where policy makers can influence the traveller choices. The development of this model system, the Integrated Airport Competition Model/integraal Luchthaven Competitie Model (ILCM), began in 1992. Since that time the sub-models, input data and user interface have been expanded, updated and improved. HCG and DGCA have transformed the ILCM from a prototype into an operational forecasting tool.

Veldhuis, J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Integrated Airport Competition Model, 1998

This paper addresses recent model development by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) and Hague Consulting Group (HCG) concerning long-distance travel, Long-distance travel demand is growing very quickly and raising a great deal of economic and policy issues. There is increasing competition among the main Western European airports, and smaller, regional airports are fighting for market share. New modes of transport, such as high speed rail, arc also coming into the picture and affect the mode split for medium distance transport within Europe. Developments such as these are demanding the attention of policy makers and a tool is required for their analysis. For DGCA, Hague Consulting Group has developed a model system to provide answers to the policy questions posed by these expected trends, and to identify areas where policy makers can influence the traveller choices. The development of this model system, the Integrated Airport Competition Model/Integral Luchthaven Competitive Model (ILCM), began in 1992. Since that time the sub-models, input data and user interface have been expanded, updated and improved. HCG and DGCA have transformed the ILCM from a prototype into an operational forecasting tool.

Veldhuis, J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Isolating Curvature Effects in Computing Wall-Bounded Turbulent Flows

The flow over the zero-pressure-gradient So-Mellor convex curved wall is simulated using the Navier-Stokes equations. An inviscid effective outer wall shape, undocumented in the experiment, is obtained by using an adjoint optimization method with the desired pressure distribution on the inner wall as the cost function. Using this wall shape with a Navier-Stokes method, the abilities of various turbulence models to simulate the effects of curvature without the complicating factor of streamwise pressure gradient can be evaluated. The one-equation Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model overpredicts eddy viscosity, and its boundary layer profiles are too full. A curvature-corrected version of this model improves results, which are sensitive to the choice of a particular constant. An explicit algebraic stress model does a reasonable job predicting this flow field. However, results can be slightly improved by modifying the assumption on anisotropy equilibrium in the model's derivation. The resulting curvature-corrected explicit algebraic stress model possesses no heuristic functions or additional constants. It lowers slightly the computed skin friction coefficient and the turbulent stress levels for this case (in better agreement with experiment), but the effect on computed velocity profiles is very small.

Rumsey, Christopher L.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Fitting Nonlinear Curves by use of Optimization Techniques

MULTIVAR is a FORTRAN 77 computer program that fits one of the members of a set of six multivariable mathematical models (five of which are nonlinear) to a multivariable set of data. The inputs to MULTIVAR include the data for the independent and dependent variables plus the user s choice of one of the models, one of the three optimization engines, and convergence criteria. By use of the chosen optimization engine, MULTIVAR finds values for the parameters of the chosen model so as to minimize the sum of squares of the residuals. One of the optimization engines implements a routine, developed in 1982, that utilizes the Broydon-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) variable-metric method for unconstrained minimization in conjunction with a one-dimensional search technique that finds the minimum of an unconstrained function by polynomial interpolation and extrapolation without first finding bounds on the solution. The second optimization engine is a faster and more robust commercially available code, denoted Design Optimization Tool, that also uses the BFGS method. The third optimization engine is a robust and relatively fast routine that implements the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm.

Hill, Scott A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Approximation methods for stochastic petri nets

Stochastic Marked Graphs are a concurrent decision free formalism provided with a powerful synchronization mechanism generalizing conventional Fork Join Queueing Networks. In some particular cases the analysis of the throughput can be done analytically. Otherwise the analysis suffers from the classical state explosion problem. Embedded in the divide and conquer paradigm, approximation techniques are introduced for the analysis of stochastic marked graphs and Macroplace/Macrotransition-nets (MPMT-nets), a new subclass introduced herein. MPMT-nets are a subclass of Petri nets that allow limited choice, concurrency and sharing of resources. The modeling power of MPMT is much larger than that of marked graphs, e.g., MPMT-nets can model manufacturing flow lines with unreliable machines and dataflow graphs where choice and synchronization occur. The basic idea leads to the notion of a cut to split the original net system into two subnets. The cuts lead to two aggregated net systems where one of the subnets is reduced to a single transition. A further reduction leads to a basic skeleton. The generalization of the idea leads to multiple cuts, where single cuts can be applied recursively leading to a hierarchical decomposition. Based on the decomposition, a response time approximation technique for the performance analysis is introduced. Also, delay equivalence, which has previously been introduced in the context of marked graphs by Woodside et al., Marie's method and flow equivalent aggregation are applied to the aggregated net systems. The experimental results show that response time approximation converges quickly and shows reasonable accuracy in most cases. The convergence of Marie's method and flow equivalent aggregation are applied to the aggregated net systems. The experimental results show that response time approximation converges quickly and shows reasonable accuracy in most cases. The convergence of Marie's is slower, but the accuracy is generally better. Delay equivalence often fails to converge, while flow equivalent aggregation can lead to potentially bad results if a strong dependence of the mean completion time on the interarrival process exists.

Jungnitz, Hauke Joerg↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Hydrological Cycle and Ocean Circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Mid-Pliocene: Results From PlioMIP2

The Maritime Continent (MC) forms the western boundary of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and relatively small changes in this region can impact the climate locally and remotely. In the mid-Piacenzian warm period of the Pliocene (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) atmospheric CO2 concentrations were ∼ 400 ppm, and the subaerial Sunda and Sahul shelves made the land–sea distribution of the MC different to today. Topographic changes and elevated levels of CO2, combined with other forcings, are therefore expected to have driven a substantial climate signal in the MC region at this time. By using the results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), we study the mean climatic features of the MC in the mPWP and changes in Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with respect to the preindustrial. Results show a warmer and wetter mPWP climate of the MC and lower sea surface salinity in the surrounding ocean compared with the preindustrial. Furthermore, we quantify the volume transfer through the ITF; although the ITF may be expected to be hindered by the subaerial shelves, 10 out of 15 models show an increased volume transport compared with the preindustrial. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models that are present in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean (MCM), which is based on cluster analysis of the individual models. We study the effect that the choice of MCM versus the more traditional analysis of multi-model mean (MMM) and individual models has on the discrepancy between model results and data. We find that models, which reproduce modern MC climate well, are not always good at simulating the mPWP climate anomaly of the MC. By comparing with individual models, the MMM and MCM reproduce the preindustrial sea surface temperature (SST) of the reanalysis better than most individual models and produce less discrepancy with reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) than most individual models in the MC. In addition, the clusters reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the MMM, so that the MCM provides us with a new way to explore the results from model ensembles that include similar models.

Hydrological cycle↗

NASA NTRS1978

The ammonia mixing ratio in Jupiter's stratosphere

The paper describes the theory that underlies the model calculations which show that the far-infrared bands of ammonia are very sensitive to the ammonia distribution above the Jovian atmospheric inversion layer. Observation of the J = 5 and J = 6 ammonia bands at moderate resolution might permit choice between a cold trap model or the irreversible uv photodestruction model for the ammonia distribution. The lack of prominent emission cores in the NH3 rotation-inversion lines only implies that the mixing ratio is low. The ammonia is uniformly mixed if the inversion temperature is low but, at a higher inversion temperature, emission cores will be observed unless the photodissociation is extremely efficient down to at least the inversion layer.

Goorvitch, D.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Characterization of the High-Albedo NEA 3691 Bede

Characterization of NEAs provides important inputs to models for atmospheric entry, risk assessment and mitigation. Diameter is a key parameter because diameter translates to kinetic energy in atmospheric entry. Diameters can be derived from the absolute magnitude, H(PA=0deg), and from thermal modeling of observed IR fluxes. For both methods, the albedo (pv) is important - high pv surfaces have cooler temperatures, larger diameters for a given Hmag, and shallower phase curves (larger slope parameter G). Thermal model parameters are coupled, however, so that a higher thermal inertia also results in a cooler surface temperature. Multiple parameters contribute to constraining the diameter. Observations made at multiple observing geometries can contribute to understanding the relationships between and potentially breaking some of the degeneracies between parameters. We present data and analyses on NEA 3691 Bede with the aim of best constraining the diameter and pv from a combination of thermal modeling and light curve analyses. We employ our UKIRT+Michelle mid-IR photometric observations of 3691 Bede's thermal emission at 2 phase angles (27&43 deg 2015-03-19 & 04-13), in addition to WISE data (33deg 2010-05-27, Mainzer+2011). Observing geometries differ by solar phase angles and by moderate changes in heliocentric distance (e.g., further distances produce somewhat cooler surface temperatures). With the NEATM model and for a constant IR beaming parameter (eta=constant), there is a family of solutions for (diameter, pv, G, eta) where G is the slope parameter from the H-G Relation. NEATM models employing Pravec+2012's choice of G=0.43, produce D=1.8 km and pv≈0.4, given that G=0.43 is assumed from studies of main belt asteroids (Warner+2009). We present an analysis of the light curve of 3691 Bede to constrain G from observations. We also investigate fitting thermophysical models (TPM, Rozitis+11) to constrain the coupled parameters of thermal inertia (Gamma) and surface roughness, which in turn affect diameter and pv. Surface composition can be related to pv. This study focuses on understanding and characterizing the dependency of parameters with the aim of constraining diameter, pv and thermal inertia for 3691 Bede.

Wooden, Diane H.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Characterization of the High-Albedo NEA 3691 Bede

magnitude↗

NASA NTRS1996

Evaluation of joint probability density function models for turbulent nonpremixed combustion with complex chemistry

Two types of mixing sub-models are evaluated in connection with a joint-scalar probability density function method for turbulent nonpremixed combustion. Model calculations are made and compared to simulation results for homogeneously distributed methane-air reaction zones mixing and reacting in decaying turbulence within a two-dimensional enclosed domain. The comparison is arranged to ensure that both the simulation and model calculations a) make use of exactly the same chemical mechanism, b) do not involve non-unity Lewis number transport of species, and c) are free from radiation loss. The modified Curl mixing sub-model was found to provide superior predictive accuracy over the simple relaxation-to-mean submodel in the case studied. Accuracy to within 10-20% was found for global means of major species and temperature; however, nitric oxide prediction accuracy was lower and highly dependent on the choice of mixing sub-model. Both mixing submodels were found to produce non-physical mixing behavior for mixture fractions removed from the immediate reaction zone. A suggestion for a further modified Curl mixing sub-model is made in connection with earlier work done in the field.

Smith, N. S. A.↗

NASA NTRS2007

An Experimental System for a Global Flood Prediction: From Satellite Precipitation Data to a Flood Inundation Map

Floods impact more people globally than any other type of natural disaster. It has been established by experience that the most effective means to reduce the property damage and life loss caused by floods is the development of flood early warning systems. However, advances for such a system have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-. national-, continental-. or even global-scale areas) and time (hourly to daily). Particularly, insufficient in situ data, long delay in data transmission and absence of real-time data sharing agreements in many trans-boundary basins hamper the development of a real-time system at the regional to global scale. In many countries around the world, particularly in the tropics where rainfall and flooding co-exist in abundance, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data for those data scarce (ungauged) areas and trans-boundary basins. Satellite remote sensing data acquired and processed in real time can now provide the space-time information on rainfall fluxes needed to monitor severe flood events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models, which can be parameterized by a tailored geospatial database. An example that is a key to this progress is NASA's contribution to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), launched in November 1997. Hence, in an effort to evolve toward a more hydrologically-relevant flood alert system, this talk articulates a module-structured framework for quasi-global flood potential naming, that is 'up to date' with the state of the art on satellite rainfall estimation and the improved geospatial datasets. The system is modular in design with the flexibility that permits changes in the model structure and in the choice of components. Four major components included in the system are: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of land surface including digital elevation from NASA SRTM, topography-derived hydrologic parameters such as flood direction. flow accumulation, basin, and river network etc.; 3) spatially distributed hydrological models to infiltrate rainfall and route overland runoff; and 4) an implementation interface to relay thc input data to the models and display the flood inundation results to the users and decision-makers. Early results appear reasonable in terms of location and frequency of events. Case studies of this experimental system are evaluated with surface runoff data and other river monitoring systems. such as Dartmouth Flood Observatory's "Surface Water Watch" array of river reaches that are measured daily via other satellite remote sensing data. A major outcome of this progress will be the availability of a global overview of flood alerts that should consequently improve the performance of Decision Support System. We expect these developments in utilization of satellite remote sensing technology to offer a practical solution to the challenge of building a cost-effective early warning system for data scarce and under-developed areas.

Adler, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2006

Data Model Management for Space Information Systems

The Reference Architecture for Space Information Management (RASIM) suggests the separation of the data model from software components to promote the development of flexible information management systems. RASIM allows the data model to evolve independently from the software components and results in a robust implementation that remains viable as the domain changes. However, the development and management of data models within RASIM are difficult and time consuming tasks involving the choice of a notation, the capture of the model, its validation for consistency, and the export of the model for implementation. Current limitations to this approach include the lack of ability to capture comprehensive domain knowledge, the loss of significant modeling information during implementation, the lack of model visualization and documentation capabilities, and exports being limited to one or two schema types. The advent of the Semantic Web and its demand for sophisticated data models has addressed this situation by providing a new level of data model management in the form of ontology tools. In this paper we describe the use of a representative ontology tool to capture and manage a data model for a space information system. The resulting ontology is implementation independent. Novel on-line visualization and documentation capabilities are available automatically, and the ability to export to various schemas can be added through tool plug-ins. In addition, the ingestion of data instances into the ontology allows validation of the ontology and results in a domain knowledge base. Semantic browsers are easily configured for the knowledge base. For example the export of the knowledge base to RDF/XML and RDFS/XML and the use of open source metadata browsers provide ready-made user interfaces that support both text- and facet-based search. This paper will present the Planetary Data System (PDS) data model as a use case and describe the import of the data model into an ontology tool. We will also describe the current effort to provide interoperability with the European Space Agency (ESA)/Planetary Science Archive (PSA) which is critically dependent on a common data model.

RDF↗

NASA NTRS2009

Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence using High-resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression. Part I: Effects of Random Error

Straightforward application of the Schmidt-Appleman contrail formation criteria to diagnose persistent contrail occurrence from numerical weather prediction data is hindered by significant bias errors in the upper tropospheric humidity. Logistic models of contrail occurrence have been proposed to overcome this problem, but basic questions remain about how random measurement error may affect their accuracy. A set of 5000 synthetic contrail observations is created to study the effects of random error in these probabilistic models. The simulated observations are based on distributions of temperature, humidity, and vertical velocity derived from Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) weather analyses. The logistic models created from the simulated observations were evaluated using two common statistical measures of model accuracy, the percent correct (PC) and the Hanssen-Kuipers discriminant (HKD). To convert the probabilistic results of the logistic models into a dichotomous yes/no choice suitable for the statistical measures, two critical probability thresholds are considered. The HKD scores are higher when the climatological frequency of contrail occurrence is used as the critical threshold, while the PC scores are higher when the critical probability threshold is 0.5. For both thresholds, typical random errors in temperature, relative humidity, and vertical velocity are found to be small enough to allow for accurate logistic models of contrail occurrence. The accuracy of the models developed from synthetic data is over 85 percent for both the prediction of contrail occurrence and non-occurrence, although in practice, larger errors would be anticipated.

Duda, David P.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Experimental and numerical investigation of supersonic flow through a square duct

Steady, developing, adiabatic supersonic flow in a square duct is investigated for an inlet Mach number of 3.91 and a unit Reynolds number of 1.8 x 10 to the 6th/m. The numerical results for laminar flow show that two secondary flow cells develop in the near vicinity of the corner which are centered about the corner bisector and distort the primary flow in this region. For turbulent flow, the experimental results indicate that two secondary flow cells also develop about the corner bisector, but are directed in an opposite sense to that observed for the laminar case. Numerical results based on the Baldwin-Lomax model show that this model is incapable of predicting turbulence-generated secondary flow cells. For a suitable choice of constants, the Gessner-Emery model is able to predict the strength of these cells, but is deficient with respect to predicting their positions in the flow and their distorting influence on the primary flow. These observations are based on comparisons made in this paper between predicted and measured total pressure contours, cross flow velocity profiles, and local wall shear stress distributions.

Davis, D. O.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Drought Monitoring for the Middle East and North Africa Region via Data Assimilation Using the NASA Land Information System (LIS)

Food and water security become an increasingly pressing concern for countries within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region under climate change. Droughts are among the most important issues facing this region in both economic and social terms, which have become much more severe in recent decades. An effective drought monitoring and early warning system is, therefore, critical to support drought impact assessment and risk management. This presentation describes the effort to improve the simulation of hydrological conditions for such semi-arid environment by Noah Multi-parameterization Land Surface Model within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) via assimilating remotely sensed leaf area index and soil moisture in the presence of irrigation. Multi-source satellite evapotranspiration products are used to evaluate the model performance under the impact of the choice of met-forcings, the presence of irrigation and data assimilation. The improved model configuration is aimed to deliver a better soil moisture estimation for the composite drought indicator (CDI) for drought monitoring and to provide a better initial condition in support for hydrological drought forecasting.

Wanshu Nie↗

NASA NTRS2015

Sensitivity of Simulated Global Ocean Carbon Flux Estimates to Forcing by Reanalysis Products

Reanalysis products from MERRA, NCEP2, NCEP1, and ECMWF were used to force an established ocean biogeochemical model to estimate air-sea carbon fluxes (FCO2) and partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) in the global oceans. Global air-sea carbon fluxes and pCO2 were relatively insensitive to the choice of forcing reanalysis. All global FCO2 estimates from the model forced by the four different reanalyses were within 20% of in situ estimates (MERRA and NCEP1 were within 7%), and all models exhibited statistically significant positive correlations with in situ estimates across the 12 major oceanographic basins. Global pCO2 estimates were within 1% of in situ estimates with ECMWF being the outlier at 0.6%. Basin correlations were similar to FCO2. There were, however, substantial departures among basin estimates from the different reanalysis forcings. The high latitudes and tropics had the largest ranges in estimated fluxes among the reanalyses. Regional pCO2 differences among the reanalysis forcings were muted relative to the FCO2 results. No individual reanalysis was uniformly better or worse in the major oceanographic basins. The results provide information on the characterization of uncertainty in ocean carbon models due to choice of reanalysis forcing.

MERRA↗