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At least 235 records · Page 13

Integrated modeling for assessing climate change impacts on water resources and hydropower potential in the Himalayas

Regional hydroclimatic variability and change can affect water resources and hydropower generation. It is essential to assess hydropower potential under current and future climatic conditions to inform the design and operation of hydropower infrastructures. Here, we employ an integrated modeling framework to assess the impact of projected hydroclimatic conditions on water resource systems and hydropower generation. The integrated framework samples climate model outputs under different scenarios to force a hydrologic model and produces streamflow projections. The projected streamflows are inputs for the future hydropower potential assessment. We implement the framework in the central Himalayan river basin. Our results demonstrate substantial spatiotemporal variability in different water balance components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water yield) under current and future climatic conditions. For the Himalayan Tila river basin, the annual average energy production is expected to increase under future hydroclimatic conditions (up to 39% in Tila-2 hydropower project, suggested by ensemble mean). Furthermore, this increase in energy is driven mainly by the increased streamflow projections, particularly during the dry season and in the late century. Our results highlight the impacts of hydroclimatic variability in hydropower productions and are of practical use to provide decision-relevant information for designing and operating hydropower infrastructures. The integrated modeling framework presented here is region-specific; however, the approach is reproducible, and the overall insights are generalizable across the Himalayan region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatial pattern of lake evaporation increases under global warming linked to regional hydroclimate change

Abstract Lakes are critical natural resources that are vulnerable to climate change. In a warmer climate, lake evaporation is projected to increase globally, but with substantial variation between regions. Here, based on ensemble projections of climate and lake models and an attribution method, we show that future lake evaporation increase is strongly modulated by regional hydroclimate change. Specifically, a drying hydroclimate will amplify evaporation increase by enlarging surface vapor pressure deficit and reducing cloud shortwave reflection. Future lake evaporation increase is amplified in tropical America, the Mediterranean and Southeast China with drier future hydroclimates, and dampened in high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau with wetter future hydroclimates. Such spatially coupled changes in lake evaporation and hydroclimate have important implications on regional lake water balance and volume change, which can aggravate water scarcity and flood risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lac du Flambeau - Climate Change Resilience Initiative (Final Report)

The goals of this project were to create a comprehensive Environmental Resiliency Plan and to increase the capacity of all Lac du Flambeau Tribal Program Managers to incorporate environmental impact thinking into the everyday management of their departments. Environmental Resiliency Planning utilized current Tribal documents, which include the Integrated Resource Management Plan (IRMP), the Lac du Flambeau Tribal Emergency Management Plan (EMP), and the Lac du Flambeau Strategic Energy Plan, as guidance throughout the process. A vulnerability assessment initiated our technical process and allowed us to identify, quantify, and prioritize (or rank) the vulnerabilities in our system. This set the stage for a reduction and resilience plan as well as providing insight for revisions of existing management plans such as the Energy and Integrated Resources Management Plans

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The influence of recent and future climate change on spring Arctic cyclones

In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced rapid atmospheric warming and sea ice loss, with an ice-free Arctic projected by the end of this century. Cyclones are synoptic weather events that transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, and have complex impacts on sea ice, and the local and global climate. However, the effect of a changing climate on Arctic cyclone behavior remains poorly understood. This study uses high resolution (4 km), regional modeling techniques and downscaled global climate reconstructions and projections to examine how recent and future climatic changes alter cyclone behavior. Results suggest that recent climate change has not yet had an appreciable effect on Arctic cyclone characteristics. However, future sea ice loss and increasing surface temperatures drive large increases in the near-surface temperature gradient, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and convection during cyclones. The future climate can alter cyclone trajectories and increase and prolong intensity with greatly augmented wind speeds, temperatures, and precipitation. Such changes in cyclone characteristics could exacerbate sea ice loss and Arctic warming through positive feedbacks. The increasing extreme nature of these weather events has implications for local ecosystems, communities, and socio-economic activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A review of SWAT applications, performance and future needs for simulation of hydro-climatic extremes

Hydro-climatic extremes, such as droughts and floods, have most likely increased due to climatic change and could lead to severe impacts on socio-economic, structural and environmental sectors. With nearly 4000 publications, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is clearly one of the most extensively used ecohydrological models worldwide. The model has been widely used for projecting the impacts of future hydro-climatic changes, but application for extreme streamflow conditions is still rarely reported. To date, SWAT application reviews have focused on compilations of SWAT studies for specific or relatively new applications such as eco-hydrological modelling, ecosystem services, sub-daily simulations, and pesticide fate and transport simulations. However, no existing SWAT review studies have focused on simulation of hydro-climatic extremes. Furthermore, this research aims to bridge this gap by compiling and reviewing the findings of studies reporting SWAT hydro-climatic extremes including highlighting the performance and future research needs. A total of 111 articles have been identified since 1999; most of these studies were conducted in the United States and China. These articles can be divided into extreme flow assessments, drought studies, flood studies, drought and flood studies, SWAT coupling with other models, and SWAT improvements. Most of the extreme performance assessment studies reported “satisfactory ”performance, with a particular emphasis on peak flow comparisons. Future research needs regarding this topic include: (1) a unified SWAT extreme performance assessment framework; (2) SWAT improvements that result in improved replication of peak and low flows; (3) reliability assessment of global and satellite products for SWAT extreme simulations; (4) bias correction of CMIP6 and regional climate projections; (5) comparison of SWAT + and SWAT for extreme flow simulations in different types of basins; (6) development of an extreme flow module within an overall SWAT modelling system; and (7) integration of artificial intelligence within SWAT modelling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding the Biases in Global Monsoon Simulations from the Perspective of Atmospheric Energy Transport

Understanding global monsoon (GM) variability and projecting its future changes rely heavily on climate models. However, climate models generally show pronounced biases in GM simulations, and the reasons for this remain unclear. Here, in this study, we evaluate the performance of 20 pairs of climate models that participated in both phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and phase 6 of CMIP (CMIP6) and identify the sources of their GM simulation biases from an energy transport perspective. The multimodel mean improvement in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5 is demonstrated by the increasing skill scores for various GM metrics from 0.20–0.79 to 0.48–0.83. More specifically, the dry biases in the Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon (NHSM) precipitation in CMIP5 [root-mean-square error (RMSE): 1.85 mm day −1 ] are reduced in CMIP6 (RMSE: 1.66 mm day −1 ). This higher simulation skill is associated with higher skill in simulating the precipitation-solstitial mode, monsoon intensity, and monsoon domains. The improvement in the NHSM precipitation simulation results from that in the meridional transport of atmospheric energy. Atmospheric energy budget analysis shows that the negative biases in downward surface longwave radiation and northward energy transport are smaller in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 in the boreal summer, resulting in a more realistic interhemispheric thermal contrast and meridional gradient of moist static energy. However, a major weakness of the CMIP6 models is found in the Southern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon precipitation simulation due to the positive bias in the top-of-the-atmosphere downward longwave radiation. This study shows that reasonably reproducing the meridional global atmospheric energy transportation is necessary for skillful GM simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Rainbows and Climate Change: A tutorial on climate model diagnostics and parameterization

Earth System Models (ESMs) must represent processes below the grid scale of a model using representations (parameterizations) of physical and chemical processes. As a tutorial exercise to understand diagnostics and parameterization, this work presents a representation of rainbows for an ESM: the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Using the 'state' of the model, basic physical laws, and some assumptions, we generate a representation of this unique optical phenomena as a diagnostic output. Rainbow occurrence and it's possible changes are related to cloud occurrence and rain formation which are critical uncertainties for climate change prediction. The work highlights issues which are typical of many diagnostics parameterizations such as assumptions, uncertain parameters and the difficulty of evaluation against uncertain observations. Results agree qualitatively with limited available global 'observations' of Rainbows. Rainbows are seen in expected locations in the sub-tropics over the ocean where broken clouds and frequent precipitation occurs. The diurnal peak is in the morning over ocean and in the evening over land. The representation of rainbows is found to be quantitatively sensitive to the assumed amount of cloudiness and the amount of stratiform rain. Rainbows are projected to have decreased, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere, due to aerosol pollution effects increasing cloud coverage since 1850. In the future, continued climate change is projected to decrease cloud cover, associated with a positive cloud feedback. As a result the rainbow diagnostic projects that rainbows will increase in the future, with the largest changes at mid-latitudes. The diagnostic may be useful for assessing cloud parameterizations, and is an exercise in how to build and test parameterizations of atmospheric phenomena.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate adaptation and sustainability in switchgrass: exploring plant-microbe-soil interactions across continental scale environmental gradients

Less carbon-intensive energy sources are needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and their predicted role in climate change. There is growing interest in the potential of biofuels for meeting this need. A critical question is whether large-scale biofuel production can be sustainable over the time scales needed to mitigate our carbon debt from fossil fuel consumption. The carbon balance and ultimately the sustainability of biofuel feedstock production is the result of complex climate-coupled interactions between carbon fixation, sequestration, and release through combustion. Similarly, the long-term productivity of biofuels depends on the environmental factors limiting plant growth. These factors are often related to soil resources which involve complex interactions at the plant-microbe-soil interface impacting their availability and cycling. Our collaborative project addressed sustainable switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) production by exploring Plant Systems, Plant-Microbiome Interactions, and Ecosystem Processes through the integrating lens of Multi-Scale Modeling. Our research was based on detailed characterization of genetically diverse switchgrass genotypes planted in common gardens across a continental latitudinal gradient. The underlying theme of our Plant Systems research was the use of locally adapted plant material to explore plant function, to understand the mechanistic basis of environmental interactions, and to discover the plant genes important for adaptation and sustainability in the face of climate change. Our Plant-Microbiome Interaction project characterized the microbial communities associated with switchgrass using genomic tools. Our Ecosystem Processes research focused on carbon cycle responses at the ecosystem level using stand level plantings. Finally, our Multi-Scale Modeling helped to define conditions of a sustainable biofuel system and identify key tradeoffs between genetic diversity, productivity, and ecosystem services. Genome-wide association analyses were used to identify alleles that contribute to successful establishment and biomass production across North America. Together, our work provided a baseline analyses of the potential of switchgrass as a biofuel feedstock. Our project resulted in a number of successful outcomes. First, we were successful in collecting switchgrass germplasm across the species range, propagating the material, and establishing common garden experiments across the species range. In collaboration with DOE JGI, we successfully assembled the first tetraploid switchgrass genome and published this resource with an analyses of the genetic basis local adaptation from our gardens (Lowry et al. 2019, Lovell et al. 2021). The gardens were used to characterize the genetic architecture for a number of important plant phenotypes. Our project also conducted extensive sampling and sequencing to characterize the bacterial and fungal associates of switchgrass roots and leaves. We showed that host genotype, location, and harvesting practices can play a role in microbiome assembly (Singer et al. 2019 & 2022, Van Wallendael et al. 2020 & 2022, Edwards et al. 2023). Our ecosystem processes work created baseline dataset of carbon and nutrient cycling in realistic stand plantings of switchgrass. Data from this experiment provided new insight into the role of plant traits, phenology, and local environments in ecosystem processes like soil respiration, net-ecosystem exchange, and dynamics of soil and plant nutrients (Ricketts et al. 2023). Finally, our crop modelling experiments help to characterize the sensitivity of common modeling frameworks to parameters, identify key limiters of productivity across large geographic scales, and leverage patterns of local adaptation in prediction. Ultimately, these studies help to identify critical plant-microbe-soil traits that may be manipulated, through breeding or agronomic management, to improve the sustainability of biofuel feedstocks.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Anticipating how rain-on-snow events will change through the 21st century: lessons from the 1997 new year’s flood event

The California-Nevada 1997 New Year’s flood was an atmospheric river (AR)-driven rain-on-snow (RoS) event and remains the costliest in their history. The joint occurrence of saturated soils, rainfall, and snowmelt generated inundation throughout northern California-Nevada. Although AR RoS events are projected to occur more frequently with climate change, the warming sensitivity of their flood drivers across scales remains understudied. We leverage the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood with horizontal grid spacings of 3.5 km across California, with forecast lead times of up to 4 days, and across six warming levels ranging from pre-industrial conditions to +3.5° C. We describe the sensitivity of the flood drivers to warming including AR duration and intensity, precipitation phase, intensity and efficiency, snowpack mass and energy changes, and runoff efficiency. Our findings indicate current levels of climate change negligibly influence the flood drivers. At warming levels ≥ 1.7° C, AR hazard potential increases, snowpack nonlinearly decreases, antecedent soil moisture decreases (except where the snowline retreats), and runoff decreases (except in the southern Sierra Nevada where antecedent snowpack persists). Storm total precipitation increases, but at rates below warming-induced increases in saturation-specific humidity. Warming intensifies short-duration, high-intensity rainfall, particularly where snowfall-to-rainfall transitions occur. This study highlights the nonlinear tradeoffs in 21st-century RoS flood hazards with warming and provides water management and infrastructure investment adaptation considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Historical and future trends in South Asian monsoon low pressure systems in a high-resolution model ensemble

Historical trends in monsoon low pressure systems (LPS), the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, have been difficult to assess due to changes in the observing network. Future projections have also remained uncertain because prior studies concluded that many coarse-resolution climate models do not accurately simulate LPS. Here, we examine changes in South Asian monsoon LPS simulated by an ensemble of global models, including some with high spatial resolution, that we show skillfully represent LPS. In the ensemble mean, the number of strong LPS (monsoon depressions) decreased over the last 65 years (1950–2014) by about 15% while no trend was detected for weaker LPS (monsoon lows). The reduction in depression counts then moderated, yielding no trend in the periods 1980–2050 or 2015–2050. The ensemble mean projects a shift in genesis from ocean to land and an increase in LPS precipitation of at least 7% K −1 , which together contribute to a projected increase in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation over central India.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

California annual grass phenology and allometry influence ecosystem dynamics and fire regime in a vegetation demography model

Grass-dominated ecosystems cover wide areas of the land surface yet have received far less attention from the Earth System Model (ESM) community. This limits model projections of ecosystem dynamics in response to global change and coupled vegetation–climate dynamics. We used the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a dynamic vegetation demography model, to determine ecosystem sensitivity to alternate, observed grass allometries and biophysical traits, and evaluated model performance in capturing California C 3 annual grasslands structure and fire regimes. Grass allometry, leaf physiology, plant phenology, and plant mortality all drove the seasonal variation in matter and energy exchange and fire dynamics in California annual grasslands. Allometry influenced grassland structure and function mainly through canopy architecture-mediated space and light competition instead of through carbon partitioning strategy. Regional variation in grassland annual burned area was driven by variation in ecosystem productivity. Our study advances the modeling of grassy ecosystems in ESMs by establishing the importance of grass allometry and plant phenology and mortality in driving C 3 annual grassland seasonal dynamics and fire regime. The calibrated annual grass allometry and biophysical traits presented can be applied in future studies to project climate–vegetation–fire feedbacks in annual grass-dominant ecosystems under global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projected increases in tropical cyclone-induced U.S. electric power outage risk

Abstract While power outages caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) already pose a great threat to coastal communities, how—and why—these risks will change in a warming climate is poorly understood. To address this need, we develop a robust machine learning model to capture TC-induced power outage risk. When applied to 900 000 synthetic TCs downscaled from simulated historical and future climate conditions under a strong warming scenario, we find outage risk in the United States and Puerto Rico is expected to increase broadly by the end of the century, with some states seeing increases of 60% and higher. Further, we discover that rising rainfall rates will play an increasingly important role in TC-induced power outage risk as the climate changes, explaining more than 50% of the projected change in risk in some regions. These insights are important for guiding decision-makers in their future outage risk investment and mitigation plans.

Grid Resilience↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-RC2 Cook Agronomy Farm - Conventional Till

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-RC2 Cook Agronomy Farm - Conventional Till. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-RC2 Cook Agronomy Farm - Conventional Till produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - RC2 operated from 2013-2016 at the R.J. Cook Agronomy Farm, as part of a cluster of 5 towers (RC1 to RC5) operated for the Regional Approaches to Climate Change (REACCH) USDA-supported research project. The tower predates the Longterm Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) site common experiment, which was established in nearby fields at the Cook Agronomy Farm in 2017. Cook Agronomy Farm is in the high-precipitation agroecological zone of the Columbia Plateau’s dryland cropping region. Wheat-based crop rotations are grown annually. RC2 had conventional tillage management (reduced-till) since at least 1998. It was contrasted with RC1, which had no-till management over the same time period. RC2 captured the same tillage practices as the US-CF2 site established in 2017 as part of LTAR common experiment. However, the towers have distinct footprints, aspects, and soil series composition.

Chi, Jinshu [The Hong Kong University of Science a↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-RC1 Cook Agronomy Farm - No Till

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-RC1 Cook Agronomy Farm - No Till. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-RC1 Cook Agronomy Farm - No Till produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - RC1 operated from 2013-2016 at the R.J. Cook Agronomy Farm, as part of a cluster of 5 towers (RC1 to RC5) operated for the Regional Approaches to Climate Change (REACCH) USDA-supported research project. The tower predates the Longterm Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) site common experiment, which was established in nearby fields at the Cook Agronomy Farm in 2017. Cook Agronomy Farm is in the high precipitation agroecological zone of the Columbia Plateau’s dryland cropping region. Wheat-based crop rotations are grown on an annual planting schedule. RC1 was in no-till management since 1998, and was contrasted with RC2, which had conventional, reduced-tillage management. RC1 captured the same tillage practices as the US-CF1 site established in 2017 as part of LTAR common experiment. However, the towers have distinct footprints, aspects, and soil series composition.

Chi, Jinshu [The Hong Kong University of Science a↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-RC4 Moscow Mountain on-farm site

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-RC4 Moscow Mountain on-farm site. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-RC4 Moscow Mountain on-farm site produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The Moscow Mountain On-farm site operated 2012-2016 as part of a cluster of 5 towers (RC1 to RC5) operated for the Regional Approaches to Climate Change (REACCH) USDA-supported research project. The site is located in the high precipitation agroecological zone of the Columbia Plateau’s dryland cropping region, near Moscow, Idaho. The site was managed with conventional (reduced) tillage. The crop rotation was spring barley, spring field peas, winter wheat, and spring wheat. Soils are silt loam mollisols including the Latahco, Thatuna, Southwick, and Larkin soil series. The site topography is sloping and is situated within the rolling hills of the Palouse region.

Chi, Jinshu [The Hong Kong University of Science a↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-RC5 Moses Lake on-farm site

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-RC5 Moses Lake on-farm site. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-RC5 Moses Lake on-farm site produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The Moses Lake On-farm site operated 2013-2015 as part of a cluster of 5 towers (RC1 to RC5) operated for the Regional Approaches to Climate Change (REACCH) USDA-supported research project. The field was a half-circle irrigated plot with the irrigation pivot located on the edge of the field and the flux tower located next to the center of the pivot. The field was in wheat from tower establishment in June 2013 to harvest in August 2013. A cover crop of arugula and mustard was grown from August to October 2013. Potatoes were grown April to August 2014 and wheat (a spring cultivar planted in fall) was grown October 2014 to June 2015. Soils are coarse sandy loam mollisols in the Timmerman series. The site topography is flat.

Chi, Jinshu [The Hong Kong University of Science a↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-RC3 WSU Lind Dryland Research Station

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-RC3 WSU Lind Dryland Research Station. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-RC3 WSU Lind Dryland Research Station produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - RC3 operated from 2011-2016 at the Washington State University Lind Dryland Experimental Station, as part of a cluster of 5 towers (RC1 to RC5) operated for the Regional Approaches to Climate Change (REACCH) USDA-supported research project. Lind is in the low precipitation region of the Columbia Plateau dryland cropping region. The area is characterized as a stable crop-fallow agroecological zone, with crops typically grown every second year to allow soil water to accumulate during intervening fallow years. Winter wheat was grown August 2012-August 2013, and August 2014-July 2015. The growing seasons of 2012 and 2014 were fallow years. Soils at Lind are predominantly silt loam texture Mollisols in the Shano and Ritzville series. Site topography is flat.

Chi, Jinshu [The Hong Kong University of Science a↗