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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Tropical cloud feedbacks and natural variability of climate

Simulations of natural variability by two general circulation models (GCMs) are examined. One GCM is a sector model, allowing relatively rapid integration without simplification of the model physics, which would potentially exclude mechanisms of variability. Two mechanisms are found in which tropical surface temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) vary on interannual and longer timescales. Both are related to changes in cloud cover that modulate SST through the surface radiative flux. Over the equatorial ocean, SST and surface temperature vary on an interannual timescale, which is determined by the magnitude of the associated cloud cover anomalies. Over the subtropical ocean, variations in low cloud cover drive SST variations. In the sector model, the variability has no preferred timescale, but instead is characterized by a 'red' spectrum with increasing power at longer periods. In the terrestrial GCM, SST variability associated with low cloud anomalies has a decadal timescale and is the dominant form of global temperature variability. Both GCMs are coupled to a mixed layer ocean model, where dynamical heat transports are prescribed, thus filtering out El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and thermohaline circulation variability. The occurrence of variability in the absence of dynamical ocean feedbacks suggests that climatic variability on long timescales can arise from atmospheric processes alone.

Miller, R. L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Terrestrial photosynthesis inferred from plant carbonyl sulfide uptake

Terrestrial photosynthesis, or gross primary production (GPP), is the largest carbon flux in the biosphere, but its global magnitude and spatiotemporal dynamics remain uncertain. The global annual mean GPP is historically thought to be around 120 PgC yr −1 , which is about 30–50 PgC yr −1 lower than GPP inferred from the oxygen-18 ( 18 O) isotope and soil respiration. This disparity is a source of uncertainty in predicting climate–carbon cycle feedbacks. Here, in this study, we infer GPP from carbonyl sulfide, an innovative tracer for CO 2 diffusion from ambient air to leaf chloroplasts through stomata and mesophyll layers. We demonstrate that explicitly representing mesophyll diffusion is important for accurately quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbonyl sulfide uptake by plants. From the estimate of carbonyl sulfide uptake by plants, we infer a global contemporary GPP of 157 (±8.5) PgC yr −1 , which is consistent with estimates from 18 O (150–175 PgC yr −1 ) and soil respiration ($149^{+29}_{-23}$) PgC yr −1 ), but with an improved confidence level. Our global GPP is higher than satellite optical observation-driven estimates (120–140 PgC yr –1 ) that are used for Earth system model benchmarking. This difference predominantly occurs in the pan-tropical rainforests and is corroborated by ground measurements, suggesting a more productive tropics than satellite-based GPP products indicated. As GPP is a primary determinant of terrestrial carbon sinks and may shape climate trajectories, our findings lay a physiological foundation on which the understanding and prediction of carbon–climate feedbacks can be advanced.

Lai, Jiameng↗
NASA NTRS1994

Venus climate stability and volcanic resurfacing rates

The climate of Venus is to a large degree controlled by the radiative properties of its massive atmosphere. In addition, outgassing due to volcanic activity, exospheric escape processes, and surface/atmosphere interactions may all be important in moderating the abundances of atmospheric CO2 and other volatiles. We have developed an evolutionary climate model for Venus using a systems approach that emphasizes feedbacks between elements in the climate system. Modules for atmospheric radiative transfer, surface/atmosphere interactions, tropospheric chemistry, and exospheric escape processes have so far been developed. Climate feedback loops result from interconnections between modules, in the form of the environmental parameters pressure, temperature, and atmospheric mixing ratios. The radiative transfer module has been implemented by using Rosseland mean opacities in a one dimensional grey radiative-convective model. The model has been solved for the static (time independent) case to determine climate equilibrium points. The dynamics of the model have also been explored by employing reaction/diffusion kinetics for possible surface atmosphere heterogeneous reactions over geologic timescales. It was found that under current conditions, the model predicts that the climate of Venus is at or near an unstable equilibrium point. The effects of constant rate volcanism and corresponding exsolution of volatiles on the stability of the climate model were also explored.

Bullock, M. A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

IAM-FIRE: a Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models

Most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underrepresent dynamic feedbacks from climate-driven disturbances such as wildfires, potentially overestimating the permanence of land-based carbon sinks. In particular, representing the impacts of forest fires is becoming increasingly important, as these are expected to intensify in the coming years. We introduce IAM-FIRE (Integrated Assessment Model – Fire Impacts & Risks Emulator), a novel framework that enables the projection of wildfire burned area (BA) and carbon emissions (CE) directly from IAM outputs. IAM-FIRE combines a spatial climate emulator, land-use downscaling, vegetation productivity modelling, and an empirical fire model to generate global annual wildfire impacts for arbitrary socioeconomic and emissions scenarios at 0.5° resolution for the period 2020–2100. Calibrated against GFEDv5 observations and using inputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we report projections BA and CE derived from IAM-FIRE for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.6 and SSP5-7.6. The model reproduces historical global trends for total BA, including the observed global decline since the early 2000s, and for forest BA. Projected fire trajectories differ strongly among scenarios: total BA range from declines under SSP1-2.6 (-3.36 Mha yr-1) to increases under SSP3-6.6 (+1.6 Mha yr-1). Corresponding total CE show a similar divergence ranging from -15 to +10.6 TgC yr-1. Socioeconomic development exerts a dominant suppressing effect on wildfire impacts while climate change and CO2-driven increases in vegetation productivity amplify fire risk, particularly under high-emissions pathways. Compared with CMIP6 fire-enabled Earth System Models, IAM-FIRE exhibits greater sensitivity to radiative forcing and a stronger role for human-driven fire suppression, highlighting substantial structural uncertainties in future fire projections. By providing a computationally efficient and internally consistent approach to represent wildfire impacts within IAMs, IAM-FIRE enables systematic exploration of fire–climate–land feedbacks and supports improved assessments of mitigation permanence and climate risks in future integrated scenarios.

Rouhette, Theo↗
NASA NTRS1989

Climate stability and cloud optical thickness feedbacks

An improved radiative-convective model (RCM) has been developed and used to examine the role of cirrus clouds in the optical thickness feedback mechanism. Low and middle clouds are approximately black bodies for infrared radiative transfer, and so any increase in their optical thickness primarily increases the cloud albedo. Thus, if a climate warming is accompanied by an increase in average atmospheric absolute humidity and hence in average cloud liquid water content, low and middle cloud optical thickness and albedo may increase. The result is a negative feedback on the climate change, tending to reduce the surface temperature increase. Recent research suggests that the optical thickness feedback can depend sensitively on aspects of cirrus which are not well observed or adequately incorporated in typical present-day climate models.

Somerville, Richard C. J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways

Forestation can contribute to climate change mitigation. However, increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes are posed to have profound impact on forests and consequently on the mitigation potential of forestation efforts. In this perspective, we critically assess forestation-reliant climate mitigation scenarios from five different integrated assessment models (IAMs) by showcasing the spatially explicit exposure of forests to fire weather and the simulated increase in global annual burned area. We provide a detailed description of the feedback from climate change to forest carbon uptake in IAMs. Few IAMs are currently accounting for feedback mechanisms like loss from fire disturbance. Consequently, many forestation areas proposed by IAM scenarios will be exposed to fire-promoting weather conditions and without costly prevention measures might be object to frequent burning. We conclude that the actual climate mitigation portfolio in IAM scenarios is subject to substantial uncertainty and that the risk of overly optimistic estimates of negative emission potential of forestation should be avoided. As a way forward we propose how to integrate more detailed climate information when modeling climate mitigation pathways heavily relying on forestation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Projections of Future Sea Level Contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets: Challenges Beyond Dynamical Ice Sheet Modeling

As Earth's climate warms, rising sea levels are becoming a great concern. Providing substantiated and well-informed guidance on the amount and rate of future sea level rise is important, but remains challenging. Observations of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets-Earth's largest freshwater reservoirs-reveal their ongoing, rapid, and complex changes in response to an evolving climate. The improved understanding of ice sheet behavior resulting from observations is driving the development of ice sheet models, and is allowing better simulation of past, present, and future ice sheet evolution. However, insight into future changes requires a better understanding of how ice sheets interact with other components of the Earth system and associated feedbacks. As climate models start to include dynamical ice sheet components, our understanding of such interactions and the feedback mechanisms will advance. These new developments in ice sheet modeling and their implementation in climate models are timely, as observations indicate an accelerating contribution of ice sheets to sea level rise.

ice sheet model↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating and Constraining Models’ Stratocumulus and Cumulus Cloud Feedbacks in the Tropics using Satellite Observations to Reduce Uncertainties in Future Climate Projections

Low-cloud feedbacks are thought to be the greatest source of uncertainty in climate projections on the centennial scale. Past research has mainly focused on the global low-cloud feedback as a whole whereas only a few studies have examined separated contributions from the two main low cloud categories: stratocumulus (Sc) and shallow cumulus (Cu). Here we aim to evaluate and constrain Sc and Cu cloud feedbacks in models using satellite observations to ultimately reduce their contribution to the spread in equilibrium climate sensitivity. We utilize the Cumulus and Stratocumulus CloudSat-CALIPSO Dataset (CASCCAD) recently developed by Cesana et al. (2019), which discriminates Sc from Cu clouds. This algorithm – based on cloud morphological characteristics at the orbital level – outperforms previous cloud-type classifications stemming from passive-sensor measurements. We investigate the observed relationship between the Sc and Cu cloud cover in tropical subsidence oceanic regions and their link to the primary low-cloud controlling factors (sea surface temperature, estimated inversion strength). To gain further insight into the Sc-Cu cloud partitioning, we explore the Sc-Cu relationship during the four meteorological seasons (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON) as well as on monthly timescale. We find a substantial negative correlation between the Sc and Cu cloud cover on annual, seasonal and monthly timescales. We finally evaluate how well climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and phase 6 (CMIP6) agree with the observations. These results establish a framework to advance model parameterizations of the underlying physical processes driving the stratocumulus and shallow cumulus clouds (turbulence and convection).

Cloud feedbacks↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extratropical Cloud Feedback Constrained by Cloud Sources and Sinks in Cyclones

Constraining cloud feedback in global climate models (GCMs) using observations is important for establishing accurate predictions of future climate. Uncertainty in shortwave cloud feedback (SW FB ) dominates uncertainty in total cloud feedback. Recent studies show a shift toward more positive extratropical SW FB in the latest generations of GCMs leading to the emergence of very high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this study, we use precipitation efficiency and albedo susceptibility to constrain liquid water path (LWP) response to warming and SW FB in the Southern Ocean (SO; 50°–80°S). We analyze precipitation in extratropical cyclones (ECs) to learn about extratropical condensed water sink processes, combined with observations of clouds and moisture convergence, and use the analysis to better understand and constrain SW FB . We utilize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 6 (CAM6), to provide a constraint on SW FB based on observations from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Multisensor Advanced Climatology of LWP (MAC-LWP). We apply Gaussian process regression to emulate the model response to all parameters perturbed in the PPE. Confronting the emulator output with observations provides a new estimated response of Earth to global warming. Furthermore, our new estimates of SO LWP reduce the PPE range by 66%–72%, which results in a shortwave cloud radiative effect estimated range that is 27%–34% less than the PPE range. Observations suggest a more positive SO SW FB than the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), and consequently do not reject the high climate sensitivity GCMs emerging from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6).

Atmosphere↗
NASA NTRS2016

LS3MIP (v1.0) Contribution to CMIP6: The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project Aims, Setup and Expected Outcome.

The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP) is designed to provide a comprehensive assessment of land surface, snow, and soil moisture feedbacks on climate variability and climate change, and to diagnose systematic biases in the land modules of current Earth System Models (ESMs). The solid and liquid water stored at the land surface has a large influence on the regional climate, its variability and predictability, including effects on the energy, water and carbon cycles. Notably, snow and soil moisture affect surface radiation and flux partitioning properties, moisture storage and land surface memory. They both strongly affect atmospheric conditions, in particular surface air temperature and precipitation, but also large-scale circulation patterns. However, models show divergent responses and representations of these feedbacks as well as systematic biases in the underlying processes. LS3MIP will provide the means to quantify the associated uncertainties and better constrain climate change projections, which is of particular interest for highly vulnerable regions (densely populated areas, agricultural regions, the Arctic, semi-arid and other sensitive terrestrial ecosystems).The experiments are subdivided in two components, the first addressing systematic land biases in offline mode (LMIP, building upon the 3rd phase of Global Soil Wetness Project; GSWP3) and the second addressing land feedbacks attributed to soil moisture and snow in an integrated framework (LFMIP, building upon the GLACE-CMIP blueprint).

atmospheric temperature↗
DOE OSTI2024

Warming but not elevated CO 2 depletes soil organic carbon in a temperate rice paddy

In this article, global climate change has the potential to alter soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in rice paddies, because increases in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO 2 ]) both influence the primary input (i.e., net primary production, NPP) and output (i.e. heterotrophic respiration) of carbon (C). We used two types of open-top chambers representing present conditions (+0°C, +0 ppm CO 2 ) and projected climate change conditions (+2°C, +200 ppm CO 2 ) to investigate the net effect of climate change on SOC stock in rice paddy. Additional chambers with elevated temperature only (+2°C, +0 ppm CO 2 ) allowed us to quantify the individual effects of temperature and [CO 2 ]. We calculated changes in SOC stock using net ecosystem C balance (NECB) analysis (i.e., the balance between C inputs and outputs). Compared to present conditions, projected climate change did not change grain yield due to a trade-off between the effects of warming and [CO 2 ] on grain yield components. NPP during the fallow season significantly decreased under combined warming and CO 2 , as the impact of warming outweighed that of elevated [CO 2 ]. However, rice NPP remained unchanged during the cropping season. Warming plus elevated CO 2 increased SOC mineralization by 157–429 %, particularly through warming-induced soil CO 2 emission during the fallow season. Consequently, climate change conditions decreased (119–271 %) NECB values compared to present conditions, primarily through the response to warming. Our findings demonstrate that rice paddies represent positive feedback on climate change, because accelerated C release from warmed soils will override C gains from NPP under elevated CO 2 . Reducing SOC depletion in rice paddy agriculture under a changing climate therefore requires conservative soil management practices during the fallow season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

Cirrus radiative characteristics and the radiative impact of small particles

An understanding of the way radiation interacts with clouds is vital for understanding the sensitivity of the earth's climate to both natural and anthropogenic changes in the atmosphere. Cirrus clouds are thought to be an important modulator of climate sensitivity. The feedback effect of cirrus on climate can be positive or negative depending upon the microphysics and scattering properties of the cloud. These properties of cirrus clouds are not well understood partly because of their thin tenuous nature and partly because of their microphysical properties. The high altitude and cold temperatures within these clouds along with their transparency greatly increase the difficulty in which accurate measurements can be obtained and interpreted both by aircraft and remote sensing. Therefore, the understanding of the interaction of radiation in cirrus clouds is crucial to determining the ways in which these clouds interact with climate forcings. The sensitivity of the radiative budgets of cirrus cloudiness to their microphysical composition and the environments in which they occur is examined. Especially important is the impact of small particles on the radiative properties of cirrus. Remote sensing estimates of the effective crystal size of cirrus and in situ measurements show large differences up to 100 microns. Thus it becomes important to identify the sources of these differences. For this reason, simulations of actual FIRE cases are compared with the in situ radiative observations and inferences are made concerning the cause of the discrepancies.

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Tropical Oceanic Precipitation Changes After the 1991 Pinatubo Eruption

Passive microwave channels like those flown on the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) contain two primary type of information on oceanic precipitation: condensate below the freezing level and precipitation-size condensate above the freezing level. The authors explore the question of whether these two separate pieces of information might contain insight into climate processes during a perturbation in the climate system. In particular, the relative fluctuations of rain and ice signals could be related to precipitation efficiency, an important determinant of the equilibrium climate, and thus a potential feedback mechanism in climate change. As an example of this potential application, SSM/I-derived liquid and frozen precipitation signals are used to infer changes in tropical oceanic precipitation characteristics during the cool period following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. The need for an assessment of the temperature sensitivity of precipitation-retrieval algorithms is also discussed.

Spencer, Roy W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methane-cycling microbial communities from Amazon floodplains and upland forests respond differently to simulated climate change scenarios

Seasonal floodplains in the Amazon basin are important sources of methane (CH 4 ), while upland forests are known for their sink capacity. Climate change effects, including shifts in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures, may alter the functionality of soil microbial communities, leading to uncertain changes in CH 4 cycling dynamics. To investigate the microbial feedback under climate change scenarios, we performed a microcosm experiment using soils from two floodplains (i.e., Amazonas and Tapajós rivers) and one upland forest. We employed a two-factorial experimental design comprising flooding (with non-flooded control) and temperature (at 27 °C and 30 °C, representing a 3 °C increase) as variables. We assessed prokaryotic community dynamics over 30 days using 16S rRNA gene sequencing and qPCR. These data were integrated with chemical properties, CH 4 fluxes, and isotopic values and signatures. In the floodplains, temperature changes did not significantly affect the overall microbial composition and CH 4 fluxes. CH 4 emissions and uptake in response to flooding and non-flooding conditions, respectively, were observed in the floodplain soils. By contrast, in the upland forest, the higher temperature caused a sink-to-source shift under flooding conditions and reduced CH 4 sink capability under dry conditions. The upland soil microbial communities also changed in response to increased temperature, with a higher percentage of specialist microbes observed. Floodplains showed higher total and relative abundances of methanogenic and methanotrophic microbes compared to forest soils. Isotopic data from some flooded samples from the Amazonas river floodplain indicated CH 4 oxidation metabolism. This floodplain also showed a high relative abundance of aerobic and anaerobic CH 4 oxidizing Bacteria and Archaea. Taken together, our data indicate that CH 4 cycle dynamics and microbial communities in Amazonian floodplain and upland forest soils may respond differently to climate change effects. We also highlight the potential role of CH 4 oxidation pathways in mitigating CH 4 emissions in Amazonian floodplains.

16S rRNA sequencing↗
NASA NTRS2007

Synchronous NDVI and Surface Air Temperature Trends in Newfoundland: 1982 to 2003

The northern regions of the earth are currently experiencing rapid change in temperature and precipitation. This region contains -40% of carbon stored in the world's soil which has accumulated from the last ice age (over 10,000 years ago). The carbon has remained to this point due to reduced decomposition from the short growing seasons and subfreezing temperatures. The influence of climate upon plant growth can have significant consequences to the carbon cycle balance in this region and could potentially alter and release this long term store of carbon to the atmosphere, resulting in a negative feedback enhancing climate warming. These changes have the potential to alter ecosystems processes, which impact human well being. This paper investigated a global satellite record of increases in vegetation growth from 1982 to 2003 developed at GSFC. It was found that, Newfoundland's vegetation growth during the 1990s exceeded global measurements. A number of potential causes were investigated to understand the mechanistic environmental drivers that could alter the productivity of this ecosystem. Possible drivers of change included: human influence of land use change on vegetation cover; changes in precipitation; temperature; cloud cover; snow cover; and growing season length. We found that humans had a minimal influence on vegetation growth in Newfoundland. Less than 6% of the island was logged during the investigation. We found a strong correlation of vegetation growth to a lengthening of the growing season of -9 and -17 days from 1982-1990 and 1991-1999. A distinct drop in plant growth and air temperature was found in 1990 to 1991 from the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo that reduced global surface air temperatures. These results document the influences of air temperature upon northern forest plant growth and the cooling effects of major volcanic eruptions in this ecological system.

Neigh, C. S. R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Century Scale Evaporation Trend: An Observational Study

Several climate models with different complexity indicate that under increased CO2 forcing, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency between models and observations suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We have analyzed century-scale observed annual runoff and precipitation time-series over several United States Geological Survey hydrological units covering large forested regions of the Eastern United States not affected by irrigation. Both time-series exhibit a positive long-term trend; however, in contrast to model results, these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increases at roughly double the rate of runoff increase. We considered several hydrological processes to close the water budget and found that none of these processes acting alone could account for the total water excess generated by the observed difference between precipitation and runoff. We conclude that evaporation has increased over the period of observations and show that the increasing trend in precipitation minus runoff is correlated to observed increase in vegetation density based on the longest available global satellite record. The increase in vegetation density has important implications for climate; it slows but does not alleviate the projected warming associated with greenhouse gases emission.

Bounoui, Lahouari↗
NASA NTRS2012

Energy Balance Models and Planetary Dynamics

We know that planetary dynamics can have a significant affect on the climate of planets. Planetary dynamics dominate the glacial-interglacial periods on Earth, leaving a significant imprint on the geological record. They have also been demonstrated to have a driving influence on the climates of other planets in our solar system. We should therefore expect th.ere to be similar relationships on extrasolar planets. Here we describe a simple energy balance model that can predict the growth and thickness of glaciers, and their feedbacks on climate. We will also describe model changes that we have made to include planetary dynamics effects. This is the model we will use at the start of our collaboration to handle the influence of dynamics on climate.

Domagal-Goldman, Shawn↗
NASA NTRS2001

Modeling Feedbacks Between Water and Vegetation in the Climate System

Not only is water essential for life on earth, but life itself affects the global hydrologic cycle and consequently the climate of the planet. Whether the global feedbacks between life and the hydrologic cycle tend to stabilize the climate system about some equilibrium level is difficult to assess. We use a global climate model to examine how the presence of vegetation can affect the hydrologic cycle in a particular region. A control for the present climate is compared with a model experiment in which the Sahara Desert is replaced by vegetation in the form of trees and shrubs common to the Sahel region. A second model experiment is designed to identify the separate roles of two different effects of vegetation, namely the modified albedo and the presence of roots that can extract moisture from deeper soil layers. The results show that the presence of vegetation leads to increases in precipitation and soil moisture in western Sahara. In eastern Sahara, the changes are less clear. The increase in soil moisture is greater when the desert albedo is replaced by the vegetation albedo than when both the vegetation albedo and roots are added. The effect of roots is to withdraw water from deeper layers during the dry season. One implication of this study is that the insertion of vegetation into the Sahara modifies the hydrologic cycle so that the vegetation is more likely to persist than initially.

Miller, James R.↗