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DOE OSTI2025

Nature-based climate solutions can help mitigate the radiative forcing that follows deforestation

Widespread expansion of agriculture and forestry has altered the surface of the Earth, the composition of the atmosphere, and as a result, the climate. Here we quantify the radiative forcing caused by the historical deforestation of an ecoregion in the U.S. Upper Midwest and the adoption of eight nature-based climate solutions. We combined regional forest inventory data with over three decades of remote sensing and in situ data from a replicated land use change experiment. Deforestation of the region caused net global warming (1626 ± 44 µW m -2 ), mainly from the 76 % reduction of ecosystem carbon stocks, but also from the 84 % reduction of the soil methane sink and the 115 % increase in soil nitrous oxide emissions. The associated albedo increase offset 24 % of this greenhouse gas induced warming. For the adoption of nature-based climate solutions, we found that conservation agriculture can provide -39 to -76 ± 31 µW m -2 of climate mitigation over a 100-year time period while short/medium length forestry rotations can provide more at -296 to -881 ± 44 µW m -2 and natural forest regeneration can provide the most at -1555 ± 44 µW m -2 . As the impacts of climate change on nature and society intensify, consideration should be given to the climate mitigation, habitat, and ecosystem services that nature-based climate solutions can provide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2021 Edition

The U.S. Department of Energy's 2021 edition of its land-based wind market report provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a focus on 2020. You can find a report, data file and presentation on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available on the Visualizations tab. Highlights of this year’s update include: -Wind comprises a growing share of electricity supply: U.S. wind power capacity grew at a record pace in 2020, with 25 billion dollars invested in 16.8 GW of capacity. Wind energy output rose to account for more than 8% of the entire nation’s electricity supply, and is more than 20% in 10 states. At least 209 GW of wind are seeking transmission interconnection; 61 GW of this capacity are offshore wind and 13 GW are hybrid plants that pair wind with storage or PV. -Wind project performance has increased over time: The average capacity factor among recently built projects was over 40%, considerably higher than projects built earlier. The highest capacity factors are seen in the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country. -Turbines continue to get larger: Improved plant performance has been driven by larger turbines mounted on taller towers and featuring longer blades. In 2010, no turbines employed blades that were 115 meters in diameter or larger, but in 2020, 91% of newly installed turbines featured such rotors. Proposed projects indicate that total turbine height will continue to rise. -Low wind turbine pricing has pushed down installed project costs over the last decade: Wind turbine prices are averaging 775–850 dollars/kW. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2020 was 1,460 dollars/kW, down more than 40% since the peak in 2010, though stable for the last three years. The lowest costs were found in Texas and the (non-ISO) West. -Wind energy prices remain low, around 20 dollars/MWh in the interior of the country: After topping out at 70 dollars/MWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped. In the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country, recent pricing is around 20 dollars/MWh. In the West and East, prices tend to average 30 dollars/MWh or more. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, fall below the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. -Wind PPA prices are often attractive compared to wind’s grid-system market value: The value of wind in wholesale power markets is affected by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind declined in 2020, following natural gas prices lower and averaging under 15 dolalrs/MWh in ERCOT, MISO, NYISO and SPP; higher values were seen in CAISO, ISO-NE and PJM. -The average levelized cost of wind energy is down to 33 dollars/MWh: Levelized costs, which exclude the impacts of federal tax incentives, vary across time and geography, but the national average stood at 33 dollars/MWh in 2020—down substantially historically, though consistent with the previous two years. Levelized costs were lowest in ERCOT, SPP, and the (non-ISO) West. -The health and climate benefits of wind in 2020 were larger than its grid-system value, and the combination of all three far exceeds the current levelized cost of wind: Wind generation reduces power-sector emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. These reductions, in turn, provide public health and climate benefits that vary regionally, but together are economically valued at an average of 76 dollars/MWh-wind nationwide in 2020. -The domestic supply chain for wind equipment is diverse: For wind projects recently installed in the U.S., domestically manufactured content is highest for nacelle assembly (>85%), towers (60-75%), and blades and hubs (30-50%), but is much lower for most components internal to the nacelle.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law for Their Effects on Nuclear Cost Data

Decarbonizing to meet aggressive climate change mitigation targets requires energy transition within all sectors. In the industrial sector, emissions will need to decrease by 65–90% by 2050 to avert global warming greater than 1.5°C (IPCC 2022). The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), and Defense Production Act (DPA) have clean energy requirements and provide financial incentives to accelerate the use of clean energy technologies in the industrial sector. It is important to note that IRA is the most extensive action ever taken by Congress and the U.S. government to combat climate change (US CBO 2021, 2022). The energy system provisions comprise most of the estimated climate and energy support. A better understanding of those provisions in the above mentioned acts and laws is crucial to assessing their impact on the equivalent energy costs to the power plant owners (impact on net revenue in $/MWh) across different energy technologies, market deployment potential offered to different energy technologies applications, and energy system research modeling. The purpose of the report is to shed light on IRA and BIL provisions with particular attention to impacts on the nuclear industry. The report also seeks to understand potential equivalent energy cost savings for nuclear energy technologies from other laws and programs in conjunction with IRA, BIL, loan program guarantees, and DPA. The report reviews recent legislation on energy policy and translates that policy to impacts on equivalent nuclear costs for the purpose of modeling policy in energy scenarios.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Industry Scan of Non-SF6 Gas-Insulated Technologies

Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF 6 ) is a specialty gas with excellent electrical insulation properties which has been used extensively in the power industry. This gas is unfortunately also one of the most potent greenhouse gases known to humanity. A 2014 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that SF 6 has a global warming potential (GWP) 23,000 times higher than Carbon Dioxide, and has the highest GWP of all gases assessed (Myhre 2013). SF 6 is almost exclusively man-made and is produced for use as an insulator in high voltage electrical equipment. This makes the production and use of SF 6 one of the leading sources of anthropogenic climate change. Since SF 6 recognition as a significant contributor to climate change, most governments and organizations have sought ways to reduce or eliminate their use of this gas. Many utilities have initiated leak monitoring and repair programs which have significantly reduced emissions of this gas into the atmosphere. While leak reduction programs have been effective at reducing emission rates in the developed world, leak rates remain frozen at ~1% annually. However, one of the largest and fastest growing markets for this gas is in the developing world where emissions standards are often lacking (P&S Intelligence. 2023). To fully eliminate the environmental impacts of SF 6 , alternative technology is needed. The ideal replacement would be a technology that can fulfil the same role as SF 6 , at the same cost or cheaper, but without adverse environmental effects. Currently, no technology fits this description, however several promising technologies have begun to enter the market. This report was commissioned by the United States Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity under the Transformer Resilience and Advanced Components (TRAC) program to assess the state of industry adoption and manufacturing capability for SF 6 -free alternative technologies for use at the high-voltage level, and the primary barriers to broader adoption. While this report is tailored to the United States, the findings should be relevant to all stakeholders seeking to reduce SF 6 emissions.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Increasing impacts of extreme droughts on vegetation productivity under climate change

Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is the basis of food production and vegetation growth globally1 and plays a critical role in regulating atmospheric CO2 through its impact on ecosystem carbon balance. Even though higher CO2 concentrations in future decades can increase GPP2, low soil water availability, heat stress and disturbances associated with droughts could reduce the benefits of such CO2 fertilization. Here we analysed outputs of 13 Earth system models to show an increasingly stronger impact on GPP by extreme droughts than by mild and moderate droughts over the twenty-first century. Due to a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme droughts, the magnitude of globally averaged reductions in GPP associated with extreme droughts was projected to be nearly tripled by the last quarter of this century (2075–2099) relative to that of the historical period (1850–1999) under both high and intermediate GHG emission scenarios. By contrast, the magnitude of GPP reduction associated with mild and moderate droughts was not projected to increase substantially. Our analysis indicates a high risk of extreme droughts to the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming; however, this risk can be potentially mitigated by positive anomalies of GPP associated with favourable environmental conditions.

Xu, Chonggang↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulated Hydrological Dynamics and Coupled Iron Redox Cycling Impact Methane Production in an Arctic Soil

The fate of organic carbon (C) in permafrost soils is important to the climate system due to the large global stocks of permafrost C. Thawing permafrost can be subject to dynamic hydrology, making redox processes an important factor controlling soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition rates and greenhouse gas production. In iron (Fe)-rich permafrost soils, Fe(III) can serve as a terminal electron acceptor, promoting anaerobic respiration of SOM and increasing pH. Current large-scale models of Arctic C cycling do not include Fe cycling or pH interactions. Here, a geochemical reaction model was developed by coupling Fe redox reactions and C cycling to simulate SOM decomposition, Fe(III) reduction, pH dynamics, and greenhouse gas production in permafrost soils subject to dynamic hydrology. In this study we parameterized the model using measured CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes as well as changes in pH, Fe(II), and dissolved organic C concentrations from oxic and anoxic incubations of permafrost soils from polygonal permafrost sites in northern Alaska, United States. In simulations of repeated oxic-anoxic cycles, Fe(III) reduction during anoxic periods enhanced CO 2 production, while the net effect of Fe(III) reduction on cumulative CH 4 fluxes depended on substrate C availability. With lower substrate availability, Fe(III) reduction decreased total CH 4 production by further limiting available substrate. With higher substrate availability, Fe(III) reduction enhanced CH 4 production by increasing pH. Our results suggest that interactions among Fe-redox reactions, pH and methanogenesis are important factors in predicting CH 4 and CO 2 production as well as SOM decomposition rates in Fe-rich, frequently waterlogged Arctic soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Investigating Secondary Aerosol Processes in the Amazon through Molecular-level Characterization of Semi-Volatile Organics

In areas where biogenic emissions are oxidized in the presence of anthropogenic pollutants, it has become increasingly apparent that secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation from biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) is substantially enhanced. The Amazon forest is the dominant source of BVOCs globally, and the forest is rapidly being converted to urban and agricultural uses. We participated in a collaborative field study located in the Amazon region around Manaus, Brazil, in 2014 (Green Ocean Amazon; GoAmazon). This study was designed to comprehensively examine how BVOC emissions (specifically, the most highly emitted non-methane hydrocarbon, isoprene, and lesser studied sesquiterpenes) and their interaction with anthropogenic pollution (i.e., nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and black carbon) alter the atmosphere’s oxidative capacity, influence secondary aerosol formation, atmospheric composition and, ultimately, affect the earth’s radiation balance and climate. We provide the first hourly, in-situ measurement of 30 sesquiterpenes and 4 diterpenes, roughly estimating that sesquiterpene oxidation contributes to 10-14% of ozone reactive loss by terpenes and at least 0.4–5% (median 1 %) of total submicron OA mass. However, this is likely a low-end estimate, as evidence for additional unaccounted sesquiterpenes and their oxidation products clearly exists. We also provide new perspectives on sulfate, NO x , and particle acidity influencing isoprene-derived SOA, comparing the central Amazon environment with Southeastern U.S.A. summer, representing clean to polluted conditions, respectively. We find that summed concentrations of isoprene-derived SOA tracers correlated with particulate sulfate spanning three orders of magnitude, suggesting that 1 μg m -3 reduction in sulfate corresponds with at least ~0.5 μg m -3 reduction in isoprene-derived SOA. We also find that SOA mass derived from isoprene oxidation in the presence of NO x is primarily comprised of aerosol sulfate bound with isoprene oxidation products (i.e. organosulfates), ~97% in the Amazon and ~55% in the Southeastern U.S. We infer under natural conditions in high isoprene emission regions, preindustrial aerosol sulfate was almost exclusively isoprene-derived organosulfates, which are traditionally thought as representative of anthropogenic influence. We further report the first field observations showing that particle acidity impacts the distribution of isoprene oxidation tracers in the gas and particle phases, providing physicochemical insight into isoprene SOA formation chemistry. Coupled with other co-located measurements by the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) team and collaborating PIs at our measurement site (called T3), on the G1 aircraft, and at additional field sites (T0, T1, T2) this data set has been used to understand emission, oxidation, and particle formation pathways at the molecular level, to elucidate how these pathways change when influenced by anthropogenic sources, and to evaluate their importance for the atmospheric budget of aerosols and the earth’s radiation balance on regional scales. Recommendations: Further constraint of the role of sesquiterpenes on ozone (O 3 ) reactivity and SOA formation is limited by the availability of authentic standards and synthesized compounds of sesquiterpenes and their oxidation products. Future research efforts should focus on making such standards available via custom synthesis to allow for accurate quantification and focused oxidation experiments that will fully elucidate the chemistry of these compounds in the atmosphere. Further, reductions in aerosol sulfate (via SO 2 emissions control) continues to be one of the most effective methods to reduce SOA formation from isoprene, but the concerted role of ammonia (NH 3 ) gas emissions from (agricultural) industry and other sources requires more investigation to better understand the role of aerosol acidity in SOA formation and potential controls. As GoAmazon particles can be more acidic compared to areas with greater anthropogenic NH 3 emissions, this promotes relatively greater organosulfate (OS) formation from isoprene even in the presence of NO x . Because OS and inorganic sulfate differ in water uptake properties, this implies preindustrial aerosol sulfate (albeit less abundant) may have been less reflective than current earth system models assume. Further research should investigate the radiative impacts of organic vs inorganic sulfate in aerosols to improve model representation. Finally, future work (currently underway) should include constraint of the contributions of monoterpene (C 10 H 16 ) BVOCs and biomass burning VOCs as precursors to SOA formation in the region as well as their impacts on radiative forcing in the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern U.S. power system

Across recent years, there has been a growing prevalence of extreme weather events throughout the United States, posing significant challenges to the reliable and resilient operation of power systems. Specifically, summer droughts threaten to severely reduce available generation capacity to meet regional electricity demand, potentially leading to power outages. This underscores the importance of accurate resource adequacy (RA) assessment to ensure the reliable operation of the nation’s energy infrastructure. Accurately evaluating the usable capacity of regional generation fleets is a challenging undertaking due to the intricate interactions between power systems and hydro-climatic systems. Here, this paper proposes a systematic and analytical framework to evaluate the impacts of extreme summer drought events on the available capacity of various generating technologies, incorporating both meteorological and hydrologic factors. The framework provides detailed plant-level capacity derating models for hydroelectric, thermoelectric, and renewable power plants, facilitating evaluations with high temporal and spatial resolution. The application of the proposed impact assessment framework to the 2025 generation fleet of the real-world power system within the PJM and SERC regions of the United States yields insightful results. By analyzing the daily usable capacity of 6,055 at-risk generators across the study region, it shows that the summer capacity deration is most significant for hydroelectric and once-through thermal power plants, followed by recirculating thermal power plants and combustion turbines. In the event of the recurrence of the 2007 southeastern summer drought event in the near future, the generation fleet could experience a substantial reduction in available capacity, estimated at approximately 8.5 GW, compared to typical summer conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the usable capacity of the generation fleet would suffer an even more significant decrease under conditions of increasingly severe summer droughts. The proposed approach and the findings of this study provide valuable methodologies and insights, empowering stakeholders to bolster the resilience of power systems against the potentially devastating effects of future extreme drought events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation & Analysis of the Hydronic Shell Retrofit System as a Solution for Deep Energy Retrofits and Electrification of Large Multifamily Housing Communities in Cold Climate

Among 32 million multi-family buildings in the United States, approximately 42% have poor or no insulation. Envelope retrofits of these buildings will provide thermal resiliency and enable a pathway to electrification of space heating systems as a result of improved thermal performance. Hydronic Shell (HS) is a technology which combines an insulated retrofit panel with a heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) thus enabling both envelope retrofit and space heating electrification. In this study, we used whole building energy simulation to evaluate energy impact of multi-family building retrofit with hydronic shell system. The simulation was performed for four locations of New York, Syracuse, Chicago and Boston. The results from the simulation showed more than 66% cooling energy reduction and more than 88% heating energy reduction from Hydronic Shell retrofit compared to Baseline building in all four locations. This reduction in energy consumption resulted in up to 219 MT reduction in annual CO2 emission. The cost reduction per floor area achieved from HVAC energy consumption reduction using Hydronic Shell retrofit was 0.66 to 0.99 $\$$/ft 2 . The results also showed higher percentage of heating energy reduction comes from the envelope only retrofit and higher percentage of cooling energy reduction comes from the retrofit HVAC system for the four locations under study.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Near and long-term perspectives on strategies to decarbonize China's heavy-duty trucks through 2050

China needs to drastically reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from heavy-duty trucks (HDTs), a key emitter in the growing transport sector, in order to address energy security concerns and meet its climate targets. We address existing research gaps by modeling feasibility, applicability, and energy and emissions impacts of multiple decarbonization strategies at different points in time. China still relies heavily on coal power, so impacts of new HDT technologies depend on the timing of their introduction relative to progress toward non-fossil power. We use a bottom-up model to simulate HDT energy consumption and CO 2 emissions through 2050. Results show that beginning to deploy battery electric and fuel-cell HDTs as early as 2020 and 2035, respectively, could achieve significant and the largest CO 2 emissions reduction by 2050 with a decarbonized power sector. However, viable near-term strategies-improving efficiency and logistics, switching to liquefied natural gas-could halve HDTs' current diesel consumption and CO 2 emissions by 2050. Our results underscore the need for a mix of near- and long-term policy and technology options to decarbonize China's HDTs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the climate impact of an improved volcanic sulfate aerosol representation in E3SM

Accurately simulating historical surface temperature variations is essential for evaluating climate models, yet many struggle to reproduce the mid-20th-century temperature trends associated with significant volcanic eruptions. This study examines the impact of volcanic sulfate aerosol representation on these biases using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The standard CMIP6 protocol prescribes volcanic forcing through radiative perturbations, omitting volcanic aerosol–cloud interactions (VACIs). Here, we implement an emission-based approach with an updated volcanic eruption inventory that directly incorporates volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions, enabling a more process-based representation of volcanic forcing. This approach leads to improved surface temperature variability and a modest reduction in cold biases between 1940 and 1980 compared to the CMIP6 setup. Additionally, we assess cloud property responses to a more realistic volcanic sulfate aerosol representation, which weakens cloud-induced cooling during periods of lower volcanic activity. However, despite these refinements, a significant temperature cold bias remains, indicating that further improvements in atmospheric chemistry, aerosol microphysics, cloud processes, and model parameterizations are needed to fully resolve this issue in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Metaproteomics-informed stoichiometric modeling reveals the responses of wetland microbial communities to oxygen and sulfate exposure

Abstract Climate changes significantly impact greenhouse gas emissions from wetland soil. Specifically, wetland soil may be exposed to oxygen (O 2 ) during droughts, or to sulfate (SO 4 2- ) as a result of sea level rise. How these stressors – separately and together – impact microbial food webs driving carbon cycling in the wetlands is still not understood. To investigate this, we integrated geochemical analysis, proteogenomics, and stoichiometric modeling to characterize the impact of elevated SO 4 2- and O 2 levels on microbial methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. The results uncovered the adaptive responses of this community to changes in SO 4 2- and O 2 availability and identified altered microbial guilds and metabolic processes driving CH 4 and CO 2 emissions. Elevated SO 4 2- reduced CH 4 emissions, with hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis more suppressed than acetoclastic. Elevated O 2 shifted the greenhouse gas emissions from CH 4 to CO 2 . The metabolic effects of combined SO 4 2- and O 2 exposures on CH 4 and CO 2 emissions were similar to those of O 2 exposure alone. The reduction in CH 4 emission by increased SO 4 2- and O 2 was much greater than the concomitant increase in CO 2 emission. Thus, greater SO 4 2- and O 2 exposure in wetlands is expected to reduce the aggregate warming effect of CH 4 and CO 2 . Metaproteomics and stoichiometric modeling revealed a unique subnetwork involving carbon metabolism that converts lactate and SO 4 2- to produce acetate, H 2 S, and CO 2 when SO 4 2- is elevated under oxic conditions. This study provides greater quantitative resolution of key metabolic processes necessary for the prediction of CH 4 and CO 2 emissions from wetlands under future climate scenarios.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Systematic Evaluation of Atmospheric Forcing, Surface Datasets, and Mesh Effects on Kilometer-Scale Land Surface and River Modeling

Earth system models are advancing toward kilometer-scale resolution to capture local climate impacts and extremes. High-resolution land and river modeling depends on multiple factors, including mesh, surface datasets, and atmospheric forcing, but their relative effects at kilometer scales remain unquantified. We evaluated five Energy Exascale Earth System Model land and river configurations over the Mid-Atlantic region using two mesh (1/8° structured versus variable-resolution unstructured mesh), two surface datasets (default versus newly developed), and three atmospheric forcings (NLDAS2, MSWX, GSWP). Evaluation against satellite, reanalysis, and in situ benchmarks across water, energy, and carbon cycles quantifies how these factors affect model performance. Forcing selection produces the largest bias reductions (12-99% across variables), followed by surface datasets (7-75%) and mesh (up to 21%). Forcing effects vary by variable, with MSWX reducing biases for snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, albedo, temperature, and gross primary productivity, GSWP for snow cover and runoff, and NLDAS for soil moisture and streamflow. The use of newly developed surface datasets improves gross primary productivity (58% bias reduction) and evapotranspiration but increase soil moisture and albedo biases due to current modeling limitations. Variable-resolution unstructured mesh improves the simulation of small-basin streamflow through better capturing drainage networks, though mesh minimally affects other land variables. These findings provide important guidance for high-resolution modeling development and actionable science.

Land and River modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transboundary effects from idealized regional geoengineering

Regional geoengineering, by reflecting sunlight over a very limited spatial domain, might be considered as a means to target specific regional impacts of climate change. One of the obvious concerns raised by such approaches is the extent to which the resulting effects would be detectable well beyond the targeted region (e.g. in neighbouring countries). A few studies have explored this question for targeted regions that are still comparatively large. We consider idealized simulations with increased ocean albedo over relatively small domains; the Gulf of Mexico (0.23% of Earth's surface) and over the Australian Great Barrier Reef (0.07%), both with negligible global radiative forcing. Applied over these very small domains, the only statistically significant non-local changes we find are some limited reduction on summer precipitation in Florida in the Gulf of Mexico case (adjacent to the targeted region). The lack of transboundary effects suggests that governance needs for such targeted interventions are quite distinct from those for more global sunlight reflection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change

Abstract California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate‐change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree‐ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food‐Energy‐Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi‐year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.

Gupta, Rohini S. [School of Civil and Environmenta↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electrification Options for Multi-Family Water Heating in Cold Climates - Final Report

In multi-family buildings, large water storage tanks in centralized domestic hot water (DHW) systems can serve as thermal energy storage (TES) batteries to mitigate grid impact. These systems offer demand shift and efficiency benefits, significantly reducing peak power consumption, particularly in cold climates. This study evaluates the load-shifting benefits of a centralized heat pump water heater (HPWH) system equipped with a CO2 heat pump in multi-family buildings through simulation. The heat pump system and water storage tank are sized using design-day sizing. A finite-element-based stratified tank model and CO2 heat pump performance map from a commercial DHW product are used. Annual simulations are conducted to assess the benefits of the centralized DHW system for energy efficiency improvements, load shifting, and emission reductions. These simulations incorporate utility tariffs and marginal grid emission data from Los Angeles and Chicago. In Los Angeles, using a water tank as a thermal battery achieves 7.4% utility cost savings and 10.2% emission reduction. In Chicago, compared to HPWH conventional operation without preheating, TES-enabled central HPWH provides 15% utility cost savings and 13% emission reduction. The case study demonstrates that the demand reduction potential of central CO2 HPWHs is significant in cold climate regions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bridging the Gap on Data, Metrics, and Analyses for Grid Resilience to Weather Events: Information that utilities can provide regulators, state energy offices, and other stakeholders

A growing number of states require regulated utilities to file resilience plans to improve the electric grid’s ability to anticipate, withstand, adapt to and recover from increasingly severe weather events. This report aims to help state regulators identify and request data, metrics, and analyses from utilities and use it in decisions on utility resilience plans and investments. The report reviews state requirements and utility plans focused on overall grid resilience, climate change resilience and vulnerabilities, infrastructure modernization, storm protection, and wildfire mitigation. It details types of data, metrics, and analyses across five categories--and provides examples of each from the utility plans. The first category is vulnerability assessments, or evaluations of the susceptibility of systems, communities, or assets to potential harm from identified hazards. The second is data on hazards and the exposure of utility assets and customers to these hazards. The third is attribute metrics, or system characteristics that contribute to or describe the resilience of a system. The fourth is performance metrics, which are impacts of resilience investments on system performance--typically a reduction of negative impacts from hazard events. Finally, evaluation and prioritization are analyses that utilities conduct to estimate impacts from resilience measures (evaluation) and prioritize measures based on costs and estimated impacts (prioritization). The report concludes with examples of key trends and emerging best practices for states and utilities, and identifies areas for further research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Life Cycle Assessment for Evaluating the Global Warming Potential of Geothermal Energy Production Using Inactive Oil and Gas Wells for District Heating in Tuttle, Oklahoma

Repurposing abandoned oil and gas infrastructure for geothermal energy production has great potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study quantified the life cycle global warming potential of geothermal energy production using four inactive oil and gas wells repurposed for district heating in Tuttle, Oklahoma. A cradle-to-grave prospective life cycle assessment was performed to compare GHG emissions between the geothermal district heating system and conventional natural gas-fired heating system from 2020 to 2050. For initial implementation of the geothermal system, we investigated two approaches: 1) repurposing abandoned infrastructure from a nearby oil and gas well site, and 2) production and injection well drillings including new construction of a central heat exchange station. Environmental impacts from the geothermal system were estimated for five scenarios where a natural gas peaking boiler is incorporated to supply peak heat demand. The prospective results indicated that cumulative reduction in GHG emissions from transitioning to the geothermal district heating system increase over time as a function of future renewable resource penetration and technological advancements within electricity, fuel, and steel production. Over 30 years, the global warming potential associated with the district heating demand will have been reduced by up to 24 % with the repurposed system. These results imply that repurposing existing oil and gas infrastructure for geothermal energy systems of district heating will bring future climate benefits.

abandoned oil and gas wells↗