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NASA NTRS2021

Multi-Pass Sequential Mini-Batch Stochastic Gradient Descent Algorithms for Noise Covariance Estimation in Adaptive Kalman Filtering

Estimation of unknown noise covariances in a Kalman filter is a problem of significant practical interest in a wide array of applications. Although this problem has a long history, reliable algorithms for their estimation were scant, and necessary and sufficient conditions for identifiability of the covariances were in dispute until recently. Necessary and sufficient conditions for covariance estimation and a batch estimation algorithm were presented in our previous study. This paper presents stochastic gradient descent algorithms for noise covariance estimation in adaptive Kalman filters that are an order of magnitude faster than the batch method for similar or better root mean square error. More significantly, these algorithms are applicable to non-stationary systems where the noise covariances can occasionally jump up or down by an unknown magnitude. The computational efficiency of the new algorithms stems from adaptive thresholds for convergence, recursive fading memory estimation of the sample cross-correlations of the innovations, and accelerated stochastic gradient descent algorithms. The comparative evaluation of the proposed methods on a number of test cases demonstrates their computational efficiency and accuracy.

Adaptive Kalman filtering↗

NASA NTRS2004

Model of Mixing Layer With Multicomponent Evaporating Drops

A mathematical model of a three-dimensional mixing layer laden with evaporating fuel drops composed of many chemical species has been derived. The study is motivated by the fact that typical real petroleum fuels contain hundreds of chemical species. Previously, for the sake of computational efficiency, spray studies were performed using either models based on a single representative species or models based on surrogate fuels of at most 15 species. The present multicomponent model makes it possible to perform more realistic simulations by accounting for hundreds of chemical species in a computationally efficient manner. The model is used to perform Direct Numerical Simulations in continuing studies directed toward understanding the behavior of liquid petroleum fuel sprays. The model includes governing equations formulated in an Eulerian and a Lagrangian reference frame for the gas and the drops, respectively. This representation is consistent with the expected volumetrically small loading of the drops in gas (of the order of 10 3), although the mass loading can be substantial because of the high ratio (of the order of 103) between the densities of liquid and gas. The drops are treated as point sources of mass, momentum, and energy; this representation is consistent with the drop size being smaller than the Kolmogorov scale. Unsteady drag, added-mass effects, Basset history forces, and collisions between the drops are neglected, and the gas is assumed calorically perfect. The model incorporates the concept of continuous thermodynamics, according to which the chemical composition of a fuel is described probabilistically, by use of a distribution function. Distribution functions generally depend on many parameters. However, for mixtures of homologous species, the distribution can be approximated with acceptable accuracy as a sole function of the molecular weight. The mixing layer is initially laden with drops in its lower stream, and the drops are colder than the gas. Drop evaporation leads to a change in the gas-phase composition, which, like the composition of the drops, is described in a probabilistic manner

Bellan, Josette↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Boundary Element Model for Assessing Large‐Scale Pressurization in Faulted Geological Storage Systems

Assessing large-scale pressurization at the regional scale—a possible outcome of large subsurface storage applications such as wastewater injection and geological carbon sequestration—presents significant computational challenges. These challenges are particularly pronounced when accounting for complex geologic structures with multiple reservoir and caprock layers, fault zones, and wells. This study introduces a computationally efficient model that integrates single-phase semi-analytical solutions with a boundary element (BE) approach. The model simulates pressure propagation in multilayered 3D systems, including vertical faults, caprock, basement, and confining units. We apply this new model to a representative scenario involving CO 2 injection near a partially sealing fault with verification against an independent two-phase flow model. Results demonstrate that our model accurately captures far-field pressure responses and that, outside the CO 2 plume zone, pressure predictions from single-phase and two-phase models are nearly identical. This supports the use of single-phase models like ours for efficient estimation of far-field pressure changes. Additionally, we demonstrate its effectiveness at a large scale, incorporating multiple wells and faults. With its ability to represent multiple wells, fault zones, and geological heterogeneity, our model is well suited for assessments of basin-scale pressurization. Its computational efficiency also makes it a promising tool for integration with optimization frameworks aimed at designing and managing injection strategies in faulted storage systems.

Cihan, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (↗

NASA NTRS1995

Some Developments of the Equilibrium Particle Simulation Method for the Direct Simulation of Compressible Flows

The direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is the established technique for the simulation of rarefied gas flows. In some flows of engineering interest, such as occur for aero-braking spacecraft in the upper atmosphere, DSMC can become prohibitively expensive in CPU time because some regions of the flow, particularly on the windward side of blunt bodies, become collision dominated. As an alternative to using a hybrid DSMC and continuum gas solver (Euler or Navier-Stokes solver) this work is aimed at making the particle simulation method efficient in the high density regions of the flow. A high density, infinite collision rate limit of DSMC, the Equilibrium Particle Simulation method (EPSM) was proposed some 15 years ago. EPSM is developed here for the flow of a gas consisting of many different species of molecules and is shown to be computationally efficient (compared to DSMC) for high collision rate flows. It thus offers great potential as part of a hybrid DSMC/EPSM code which could handle flows in the transition regime between rarefied gas flows and fully continuum flows. As a first step towards this goal a pure EPSM code is described. The next step of combining DSMC and EPSM is not attempted here but should be straightforward. EPSM and DSMC are applied to Taylor-Couette flow with Kn = 0.02 and 0.0133 and S(omega) = 3). Toroidal vortices develop for both methods but some differences are found, as might be expected for the given flow conditions. EPSM appears to be less sensitive to the sequence of random numbers used in the simulation than is DSMC and may also be more dissipative. The question of the origin and the magnitude of the dissipation in EPSM is addressed. It is suggested that this analysis is also relevant to DSMC when the usual accuracy requirements on the cell size and decoupling time step are relaxed in the interests of computational efficiency.

Macrossan, M. N.↗

NASA NTRS2023

An Enabling Platform for Achieving Multiscale Multiphysics Analysis of Multiphase Materials

This paper will address current NASA GRC research efforts utilizing the NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT) which address technical gaps in three of the Vision 2040 key discipline areas. NASMAT is a versatile platform for performing computationally efficient multiscale analyses of heterogeneous materials and is available free through the NASA software catalog. It offers the user flexibility to define an arbitrary number of length scales (levels) where a variety of micromechanics theories can be implemented at each level. Micromechanics theories can be selected to balance accuracy and computational efficiency and range from analytical (Mori-Tanaka) to several semi-analytical (method of cells) formulations. The resulting anisotropic, evolving nonlinear, thermomechanical constitutive model can also be coupled with external software and used to perform multiscale analyses of more complex structures. A recent application to model a complex, three-dimensional woven composite, with a particular emphasis placed on multiscale measurements utilized to enhance the quality of the multiscale analysis will be discussed. Since typical NASMAT analyses can be completed on the order of seconds to minutes, a second example will demonstrate the ability to generate large quantities of data useful for sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, or machine learning applications. Current progress on implementing NASMAT within a multiscale digital thread/digital twin framework will also be addressed. These examples will demonstrate that NASMAT is an enabling platform for achieving the goals in Vision 2040.

Multiscale↗

NASA NTRS1992

A study of mapping exogenous knowledge representations into CONFIG

Qualitative reasoning is reasoning with a small set of qualitative values that is an abstraction of a larger and perhaps infinite set of quantitative values. The use of qualitative and quantitative reasoning together holds great promise for performance improvement in applications that suffer from large and/or imprecise knowledge domains. Included among these applications are the modeling, simulation, analysis, and fault diagnosis of physical systems. Several research groups continue to discover and experiment with new qualitative representations and reasoning techniques. However, due to the diversity of these techniques, it is difficult for the programs produced to exchange system models easily. The availability of mappings to transform knowledge from the form used by one of these programs to that used by another would open the doors for comparative analysis of these programs in areas such as completeness, correctness, and performance. A group at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) is working to develop CONFIG, a prototype qualitative modeling, simulation, and analysis tool for fault diagnosis applications in the U.S. space program. The availability of knowledge mappings from the programs produced by other research groups to CONFIG may provide savings in CONFIG's development costs and time, and may improve CONFIG's performance. The study of such mappings is the purpose of the research described in this paper. Two other research groups that have worked with the JSC group in the past are the Northwest University Group and the University of Texas at Austin Group. The former has produced a qualitative reasoning tool named SIMGEN, and the latter has produced one named QSIM. Another program produced by the Austin group is CC, a preprocessor that permits users to develop input for eventual use by QSIM, but in a more natural format. CONFIG and CC are both based on a component-connection ontology, so a mapping from CC's knowledge representation to CONFIG's knowledge representation was chosen as the focus of this study. A mapping from CC to CONFIG was developed. Due to differences between the two programs, however, the mapping transforms some of the CC knowledge to CONFIG as documentation rather than as knowledge in a form useful to computation. The study suggests that it may be worthwhile to pursue the mappings further. By implementing the mapping as a program, actual comparisons of computational efficiency and quality of results can be made between the QSIM and CONFIG programs. A secondary study may reveal that the results of the two programs augment one another, contradict one another, or differ only slightly. If the latter, the qualitative reasoning techniques may be compared in other areas, such as computational efficiency.

Mayfield, Blayne E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Excited state electronic structure of dimethyl disulfide involved in photodissociation at ∼200 nm

Dimethyl disulfide (DMDS), one of the smallest organic molecules with an S–S bond, serves as a model system for understanding photofragmentation in polypeptides and proteins. Prior studies of DMDS photodissociation excited at ∼266 nm and ∼248 nm have elucidated the mechanisms of S–S and C–S bond cleavage, which involve the lowest excited electronic states S 1 and S 2 . Far less is known about the dissociation mechanisms and electronic structure of relevant excited states of DMDS excited at ∼200 nm. Herein we present calculations of the electronic structure and properties of electronic states S 1 –S 6 accessed when DMDS is excited at ∼200 nm. Our analysis includes a comparison of theoretical and experimental UV spectra, as well as theoretically predicted one-dimensional cuts through the singlet and triplet potential energy surfaces along the S–S and C–S bond dissociation coordinates. Finally, we present calculations of spin–orbit coupling constants at the Franck–Condon geometry to assess the likelihood of ultrafast intersystem crossing. We show that choosing an accurate yet computationally efficient electronic structure method for calculating the S 0 –S 6 potential energy surfaces along relevant dissociation coordinates is challenging due to excited states with doubly excited character and/or mixed Rydberg-valence character. Our findings demonstrate that the extended multi-state complete active space second-order perturbation theory (XMS-CASPT2) balances this computational efficiency and accuracy, as it captures both the Rydberg character of states in the Franck–Condon region and multiconfigurational character toward the bond-dissociation limits. In conclusion, we compare the performance of XMS-CASPT2 to a new variant of equation of motion coupled cluster theory with single, double, and perturbative triple corrections, EOM-CCSD(T)(a)*, finding that EOM-CCSD(T)(a)* significantly improves the treatment of doubly excited states compared to EOM-CCSD, but struggles to quantitatively capture asymptotic energies along bond dissociation coordinates for these states.

Rishi, Varun↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scalable Risk Assessment of Rare Events in Power Systems With Uncertain Wind Generation and Loads

Risk assessment of rare events has become increasingly important in power system planning and operation with the increasing integration of renewable energy and the presence of system uncertainties. However, quantifying the risk posed by rare events via the traditional method, i.e., Monte Carlo sampling (MCS), incurs substantial computational expense stemming from the vast ensemble of power flow simulations. To accelerate the assessment, this paper proposes a Deep Neural Network (DNN)-kernelized vector-valued Gaussian Process (VVGP) approach with excellent computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy. Consequently, serving as a surrogate model for the power flow solver, the DNN-kernelized VVGP enables significantly faster but accurate risk assessment compared to the power flow solver. The developed surrogate model evaluates low-order N - k events that contain more than 90% instances by adeptly capturing the topological features while the high-order N - k events are assessed via a power flow solver, thereby striking a balance between computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification accuracy. Moreover, the model incorporates a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier to resample concerning low-probability tail events to counteract the biases potentially introduced during the DNN-kernelized VVGP evaluations. Simulations conducted on the modified IEEE 24-bus, 118-bus, and European 1354-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed method maintains the accuracy benchmark set by MCS while significantly reducing computational demands in large-scale power systems as compared to other state-of-the-art methods.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Solar Irradiance Forecast Using Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest and Gaussian Process

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity estimation requires high-resolution, site-specific solar irradiance data to account for localized variability. However, global datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), provide regional averages that fail to capture the fine-scale fluctuations critical for large-scale grid integration. This limitation is particularly relevant in the context of increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) penetration, such as rooftop PV. Additionally, it is critical to the implementation of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 2222, which facilitates DER participation in U.S. bulk power markets. To address this challenge, this study evaluates Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest (NNRF) and Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) models for spatiotemporal downscaling of global solar irradiance data. By leveraging historical irradiance and meteorological data, these models incorporate spatial, temporal, and feature-based correlations to enhance local irradiance predictions. The NNRF model, a machine-learning approach, prioritizes computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, while the NNGP model offers a level of interpretability and prediction uncertainty by numerically quantifying correlations and dependencies in the data. Model validation was conducted using day-ahead predictions. The results showed that the average Goodness of Fit (GoF) of the NNRF model of 90.61% across all eight sites outperformed the GoF of the NNGP of 85.88%. Additionally, the computational speed of NNRF was 2.5 times faster than the NNGP. Finally, the NNGP displayed polynomial scaling while the NNRF scaled linearly with increasing number of nearest neighbors. Additional validation of the model on five sites in Puerto Rico further confirmed the superiority of the NNRF model over the NNGP model. These findings highlight the robustness and computational efficiency of NNRF for large-scale solar irradiance downscaling, making it a strong candidate for improving PV capacity estimation and real-time electricity market integration for DERs.

Asiedu, Shadrack (ORCID:0009000646004826)↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Framework for Deep Learning Emulation of Numerical Models With a Case Study in Satellite Remote Sensing

Numerical models based on physics represent the state of the art in Earth system modeling and comprise our best tools for generating insights and predictions. Despite rapid growth in computational power, the perceived need for higher model resolutions overwhelms the latest generation computers, reducing the ability of modelers to generate simulations for understanding parameter sensitivities and characterizing variability and uncertainty. Thus, surrogate models are often developed to capture the essential attributes of the full-blown numerical models. Recent successes of machine learning methods, especially deep learning (DL), across many disciplines offer the possibility that complex nonlinear connectionist representations may be able to capture the underlying complex structures and nonlinear processes in Earth systems. A difficult test for DL-based emulation, which refers to function approximation of numerical models, is to understand whether they can be comparable to traditional forms of surrogate models in terms of computational efficiency while simultaneously reproducing model results in a credible manner. A DL emulation that passes this test may be expected to perform even better than simple models with respect to capturing complex processes and spatiotemporal dependencies. Here, we examine, with a case study in satellite-based remote sensing, the hypothesis that DL approaches can credibly represent the simulations from a surrogate model with comparable computational efficiency. Our results are encouraging in that the DL emulation reproduces the results with acceptable accuracy and often even faster performance. We discuss the broader implications of our results in light of the pace of improvements in high-performance implementations of DL and the growing desire for higher resolution simulations in the Earth sciences.

Bayesian Deep Learning↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing decision boundaries under uncertainty

In order to make design decisions, engineers may seek to identify regions of the design domain that are acceptable in a computationally efficient manner. A design is typically considered acceptable if its reliability with respect to parametric uncertainty exceeds the designer’s desired level of confidence. Despite major advancements in reliability estimation and in design classification via decision boundary estimation, the current literature still lacks a design classification strategy that incorporates parametric uncertainty and desired design confidence. To address this gap, this paper offers a novel interpretation of the acceptance region by defining the decision boundary as the hypersurface which isolates the designs that exceed a user-defined level of confidence given parametric uncertainty. This work addresses the construction of this novel decision boundary using computationally efficient algorithms that were developed for reliability analysis and decision boundary estimation. The approach proposed in this paper is verified on two physical examples from structural and thermal analysis using Support Vector Machines and Efficient Global Optimization-based contour estimation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Coarse-graining Hamiltonian systems using WSINDy

Abstract Weak form equation learning and surrogate modeling has proven to be computationally efficient and robust to measurement noise in a wide range of applications including ODE, PDE, and SDE discovery, as well as in coarse-graining applications, such as homogenization and mean-field descriptions of interacting particle systems. In this work we extend this coarse-graining capability to the setting of Hamiltonian dynamics which possess approximate symmetries associated with timescale separation. A smooth $$\varepsilon$$ ε -dependent Hamiltonian vector field $$X_\varepsilon$$ X ε possesses an approximate symmetry if the limiting vector field $$X_0=\lim _{\varepsilon \rightarrow 0}X_\varepsilon$$ X 0 = lim ε → 0 X ε possesses an exact symmetry. Such approximate symmetries often lead to the existence of a Hamiltonian system of reduced dimension that may be used to efficiently capture the dynamics of the symmetry-invariant dependent variables. Deriving such reduced systems, or approximating them numerically, is an ongoing challenge. We demonstrate that WSINDy can successfully identify this reduced Hamiltonian system in the presence of large perturbations imparted in the $$\varepsilon >0$$ ε > 0 regime, while remaining robust to extrinsic noise. This is significant in part due to the nontrivial means by which such systems are derived analytically. WSINDy naturally preserves the Hamiltonian structure by restricting to a trial basis of Hamiltonian vector fields. The methodology is computationally efficient, often requiring only a single trajectory to learn the global reduced Hamiltonian, and avoiding forward solves in the learning process. In this way, we argue that weak-form equation learning is particularly well-suited for Hamiltonian coarse-graining. Using nearly-periodic Hamiltonian systems as a prototypical class of systems with approximate symmetries, we show that WSINDy robustly identifies the correct leading-order system, with dimension reduced by at least two, upon observation of the relevant degrees of freedom. While our main contribution is computational, we also provide a contribution to the literature on averaging theory by proving that first-order averaging at the level of vector fields preserves Hamiltonian structure in nearly-periodic Hamiltonian systems. This provides theoretical justification for our approach as WSINDy’s computations occur at the level of Hamiltonian vector fields. We illustrate the efficacy of our proposed method using physically relevant examples, including coupled oscillator dynamics, the Hénon–Heiles system for stellar motion within a galaxy, and the dynamics of charged particles.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1993

Convection equation modeling: A non-iterative direct matrix solution algorithm for use with SINDA

The determination of the boundary conditions for a component-level analysis, applying discrete finite element and finite difference modeling techniques often requires an analysis of complex coupled phenomenon that cannot be described algebraically. For example, an analysis of the temperature field of a coldplate surface with an integral fluid loop requires a solution to the parabolic heat equation and also requires the boundary conditions that describe the local fluid temperature. However, the local fluid temperature is described by a convection equation that can only be solved with the knowledge of the locally-coupled coldplate temperatures. Generally speaking, it is not computationally efficient, and sometimes, not even possible to perform a direct, coupled phenomenon analysis of the component-level and boundary condition models within a single analysis code. An alternative is to perform a disjoint analysis, but transmit the necessary information between models during the simulation to provide an indirect coupling. For this approach to be effective, the component-level model retains full detail while the boundary condition model is simplified to provide a fast, first-order prediction of the phenomenon in question. Specifically for the present study, the coldplate structure is analyzed with a discrete, numerical model (SINDA) while the fluid loop convection equation is analyzed with a discrete, analytical model (direct matrix solution). This indirect coupling allows a satisfactory prediction of the boundary condition, while not subjugating the overall computational efficiency of the component-level analysis. In the present study a discussion of the complete analysis of the derivation and direct matrix solution algorithm of the convection equation is presented. Discretization is analyzed and discussed to extend of solution accuracy, stability and computation speed. Case studies considering a pulsed and harmonic inlet disturbance to the fluid loop are analyzed to assist in the discussion of numerical dissipation and accuracy. In addition, the issues of code melding or integration with standard class solvers such as SINDA are discussed to advise the user of the potential problems to be encountered.

Schrage, Dean S.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Approximate Analysis for Interlaminar Stresses in Composite Structures with Thickness Discontinuities

An efficient, approximate analysis for calculating complete three-dimensional stress fields near regions of geometric discontinuities in laminated composite structures is presented. An approximate three-dimensional local analysis is used to determine the detailed local response due to far-field stresses obtained from a global two-dimensional analysis. The stress results from the global analysis are used as traction boundary conditions for the local analysis. A generalized plane deformation assumption is made in the local analysis to reduce the solution domain to two dimensions. This assumption allows out-of-plane deformation to occur. The local analysis is based on the principle of minimum complementary energy and uses statically admissible stress functions that have an assumed through-the-thickness distribution. Examples are presented to illustrate the accuracy and computational efficiency of the local analysis. Comparisons of the results of the present local analysis with the corresponding results obtained from a finite element analysis and from an elasticity solution are presented. These results indicate that the present local analysis predicts the stress field accurately. Computer execution-times are also presented. The demonstrated accuracy and computational efficiency of the analysis make it well suited for parametric and design studies.

Rose, Cheryl A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

A 3D finite element multigrid solver for the Euler equations

A low storage, computationally efficient algorithm for the solution of the compressible Euler equations on unstructured tetrahedral meshes is developed. The algorithm takes the form of a centered scheme with the explicit addition of a high accuracy artificial viscosity and the solution is advanced to steady state by means of a multistage timestepping method. The side-based data structure which is employed enables a clear connection to be established between the proposed algorithm and upwind cell vertex schemes for unstructured meshes. The computational efficiency of the procedure is improved by incorporating an unstructured multigrid acceleration procedure. A number of flows of practical interest are analyzed to demonstrate the numerical performance of the proposed approach.

Peraire, J.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Free vibration analysis of spinning flexible space structures

Efficient computation of natural frequencies and associated free vibration modes of spinning flexible structures is required to accurately determine the nature of interaction between the flexible structure and the attitude control system, which is vital in relating control torques to attitude angles. While structural discretization is effected by the finite element method, the resulting eigenvalue problem is solved by a combined Sturm sequence and inverse iteration procedure that yields a few specified roots and associated vectors. An eigenvalue procedure, based on a simultaneous iteration technique, provides efficient computation of the first few roots and vectors; a modal synthesis procedure proves to be useful for eigenproblem solutions of unusual structures such as spacecraft.

Gupta, K. K.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Free vibration analysis of spinning flexible space structures

Gupta, K. K.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Solution of the Nonlinear High-Fidelity Generalized Method of Cells Micromechanics Relations via Order-Reduction Techniques

The High-Fidelity Generalized Method of Cells (HFGMC) is one technique, distinct from traditional finite element approaches, for accurately simulating nonlinear composite material behavior. In this work, the HFGMC global system of equations for doubly-periodic repeating unit cells with nonlinear constituents has been reduced in size through the novel application of a Petrov-Galerkin Proper Orthogonal Decomposition order-reduction scheme in order to improve its computational efficiency. Order-reduced models of an E-glass/Nylon 12 composite led to a 4.8 to 6.3x speedup in the equation assembly/solution runtime while maintaining model accuracy. This corresponded to a 21 to 38 percent reduction in total runtime. The significant difference in assembly/solution and total runtimes was attributed to the evaluation of integration point inelastic field quantities; this step was identical between the unreduced and order-reduced models. Nonetheless, order-reduced techniques offer the potential to significantly improve the computational efficiency of multiscale calculations.

Ricks, Trenton M.↗