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At least 235 records · Page 13

Monitoring covariance in multivariate time series: Comparing machine learning and statistical approaches

Abstract In complex systems with multiple variables monitored at high‐frequency, variables are not only temporally autocorrelated, but they may also be nonlinearly related or exhibit nonstationarity as the inputs or operation changes. One approach to handling such variables is to detrend them prior to monitoring and then apply control charts that assume independence and stationarity to the residuals. Monitoring controlled systems is even more challenging because the control strategy seeks to maintain variables at prespecified mean levels, and to compensate, correlations among variables may change, making monitoring the covariance essential. In this paper, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) is compared with a multivariate random forest (MRF) and a neural network (NN) for detrending multivariate time series prior to monitoring the covariance of the residuals using a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart. Machine learning models have an advantage when the data's structure is unknown or may change. We design a novel simulation study with nonlinear, nonstationary, and autocorrelated data to compare the different detrending models and subsequent covariance monitoring. The machine learning models have superior performance for nonlinear and strongly autocorrelated data and similar performance for linear data. An illustration with data from a reverse osmosis process is given.

Weix, Derek↗

Redis-Based Streaming Architecture for Accelerator Beam Instrumentation DAQ Systems

The Fermilab Acceleraor Division, Beam Instrumentation Department, is always adopting modern and current software methodologies for complex DAQ architectures. This paper highlights the Redis Adapter (RA) as the key software component enabling high performance, modular communication between digitizers and distributed control systems by leveraging Redis and containerization. The RA provides a unified, efficient interface between Redis based data streams and consumer systems. In the legacy architecture, digitized data flowed through the custom, UDP based Distributed Data Communication Protocol in the middle layer. In the current system, DDCP remains the ingestion path, while the RA serves as the decoupling layer. The proposed system replaces old VME digitizers with a SOM-based digitizer that communicates with Redis using the RA. The RA acts as both a performance-critical bridge and a protocol-agnostic adapter, ensuring compatibility with legacy control frameworks while enabling future scalability and modularity. This restructuring of the middle layer also helps the system achieve high throughput, reduce latency, and simplify the data path. Finally, we will demonstrate how RA is utilized in our two core products to deliver both legacy compatibility and future flexibility.

Joshi, S. [Fermilab]↗

Static actuator-sharing algorithm for concurrent control of multiple plasma properties

Simultaneous regulation of multiple properties in next-generation tokamaks like ITER and fusion pilot plant may require the integration of different plasma control algorithms. Such integration requires the conversion of individual controller commands into physical actuator requests while accounting for the coupling between different plasma properties. This work proposes a tokamak and scenario-agnostic actuator-sharing algorithm (ASA) to perform the above-mentioned command-request conversion and, hence, integrate multiple plasma controllers. The proposed algorithm implicitly solves a quadratic programming (QP) problem formulated to account for the saturation limits and the relation between the controller commands and physical actuator requests. Since the constraints arising in the QP program are linear, the proposed ASA is highly computationally efficient and can be implemented in the tokamak plasma control system in real time. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm is designed to handle real-time changes in the control objectives and actuators’ availability. Nonlinear simulations carried out using the Control Oriented Transport SIMulator illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in achieving multiple control objectives simultaneously.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

How Much Reserve Fuel: Quantifying the Maximal Energy Cost of System Disturbances

Motivated by the design question of additional fuel needed to complete a task in an uncertain environment, this paper introduces metrics to quantify the maximal additional energy used by a control system in the presence of bounded disturbances, compared to a nominal, disturbance-free system. In particular, we consider the task of finite-time stabilization for a linear, time-invariant system. We compare the nominal energy required to achieve this task in the disturbance-free system to the worst-case energy over all feasible disturbances. Solving for the worst-case energy over all disturbances first leads to an optimal control problem with a least-squares solution, and then an infinite-dimensional optimization problem where we derive an upper bound on the solution. The comparison of energies is accomplished using additive and multiplicative metrics, for which we derive bounds. Simulation examples on an ADMIRE fighter jet model demonstrate the practicability of these metrics, and their variation with the distance of the initial condition from the origin and the task completion time.

koopman operator, resilience↗

Modeling, Validation, and Control of the IEA‐15 MW Reference Wind Turbine and VolturnUS‐S Platform

This paper presents the acausal modeling, validation, and control of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs). The model simulates the IEA‐15 MW reference turbine and the semi‐submersible VolturnUS‐S platform utilizing a Control‐oriented, Reconfigurable, and Acausal Floating Turbine Simulator (CRAFTS), which integrates the key coupled aero‐hydro‐elasto‐servo dynamics and is being developed by authors at the University of Central Florida. Verification and validation are conducted using numerical data from the industry‐standard simulation platform OpenFAST and experimental data from the Floating Offshore‐wind and Controls Advanced Laboratory (FOCAL) project, in which the authors were involved. Numerical results demonstrate the model's ability to qualitatively capture loads and responses across various load cases, highlighting the impact of the control system under different wind and wave conditions and opening new opportunities for optimizing FOWT designs. This paper provides wind turbine researchers with valuable insights into system characteristics, system frequencies, damping effects, and internal reaction forces, serving as a reference for future studies in FOWT modeling and control.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Autonomous Infrared and Small (Wide) Angle X-Ray Scattering (IR-S(W)AXS) Capability

Thin water films are 2-D, nanoconfined layers that form on solid surfaces exposed to humid atmospheres—environments ubiquitous across catalysis, corrosion science, soil science, and subsurface geochemistry. At relative humidity (RH) values below saturation, these films are Å–nm thick and exhibit properties that differ sharply from bulk water, including disrupted H-bonding and impeded mass transport. Owing to their high surface-to-volume ratio, dissolution of the solid can rapidly drive strong supersaturation with respect to secondary phases. Reactivity in thin water films is highly sensitive to film thickness, and critically, thickness evolves during reaction because the hygroscopicity of the interfacial system changes as ions accumulate or diminish in the film and as reaction products transform. To accurately probe and control these dynamics, a capability is needed that can measure and automatically maintain a constant water-film thickness while simultaneously monitoring solid dissolution, nucleation, and growth. This project developed an autonomous Infrared/Small Angle X-ray Scattering-Wide Angle X-ray Scattering (IR/(W)SAXS) for investigating reactivity in thin water films on solid surfaces exposed to humidified gases. The capability consists of an IR spectrometer, a (W)SAXS instrument, and a mass flow controller system for generating variably humidified gas flows to a custom reaction cell. Progress on each of the major components of the capability are detailed below.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Evaluation of a 5kW Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell Stack

Solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOECs) are a developing technology for hydrogen production. They are promising due to their utilization of thermal energy to reduce their electricity consumption. The Department of Energy (DOE) has set goals to reduce the price per kilogram of hydrogen, and Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is conducting research to develop and demonstrate advanced methods and technologies to achieve making hydrogen a more affordable, efficient, and sustainable energy source. In this project, INL is collaborating with a vendor to evaluate and validate the design of a 5kW SOEC stack. The test aims to demonstrate a safe startup, operation, and shutdown on INL’s 5kW test stand, providing third-party validation in a different environment. A successful 50-hour test with stable hydrogen production will pave the way for a subsequent 1000-hour test. This project emphasized learning about electrolysis and the various support systems, referred to as balance of plant (BOP) equipment. These systems required modification while swapping to the vendor 5kW SOEC stack, most prominently the furnace door design and the controls system. It also included gaining skills in creating computer-aided design (CAD) drawings for the new door while using available materials and ensuring it met high-temperature requirements. Upon completion of modifications to the test stand, the SOEC will be test-fitted with respective wiring and piping. Instrumentation and piping will be checked for leaks and quality. This must be completed before the vendor’s engineers arrive to observe the test plan, startup, and a collection of 50 hours of data. The vendor’s engineers will ensure their stack performed sufficiently in the 50-hour test to enable the progression to a 1000-hour test.

08 - HYDROGEN↗

Impact of the Exciter and Governor Parameters on Forced Oscillations

In recent years, the frequency of forced oscillation events due to control system malfunctions or improper parameter settings has increased. Tuning the parameters of exciters and governor models is crucial for maintaining power system stability. Traditional simulation studies typically involve small transient disturbances or step changes to find optimal parameter sets, but existing optimization algorithms often fall short in fine-tuning for forced oscillations. Identifying the sensitive parameters within these control models is essential for ensuring stability during large, sustained disturbances. This study focuses on identifying these critical exciter and governor model parameters by analyzing their influence on sustained forced oscillations. Using Kundur’s two-area system, we analyze common exciter models such as SCRX, ESST1A, and AC7B, along with governor models like GAST, HYGOV, and GGOV1, utilizing PSS®E software version 34. Sustained forced oscillations are injected at generator-1 of area-1, with individual parameter changes dynamically simulated. By considering a local oscillation frequency of 1.4 Hz and an inter-area oscillation mode of 0.25 Hz, we analyze the impact of each parameter change on the magnitude and frequency of forced oscillations as well as on active and reactive power outputs. This novel approach highlights the most influential parameters of each tested model—such as exciter, governor, and turbine gains, as well as time constant parameters—on the impact of forced oscillations. Based on our findings, the sensitive parameters of each tested model are ranked. These would provide valuable insights for industry operators to fine-tune control settings during oscillation events, ultimately enhancing system stability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Preliminary proof-of-concept of real-time divertor heat flux control from infrared cameras with nitrogen injection in the DIII-D tokamak

In future tokamak reactors like ITER and the Fusion Pilot Plant (FPP), real-time feedback control of heat flux to the plasma-facing components (PFC) will be critical for steady-state operation. This work presents the first experimental demonstration of real-time divertor heat flux estimation with infrared thermography and feedback control with impurity seeding on the DIII-D tokamak. The flexible infrastructure of the Plasma Control System (PCS) on DIII-D makes this new capability possible. The PCS software runs on a gateway computer system, and five real-time compute nodes. An array of low latency streaming digitizers from D-TACQ Solutions connects to these real-time computers to collect and process data, and send commands to actuators during plasma discharges. This system handles the signal IO from the tokamak and allows the PCS to utilize the diagnostic data necessary to perform control in real-time. Feedback control on heat flux was accomplished by feeding infrared camera data from the “Infrared TV” (IRTV) camera to a custom-developed User Datagram Protocol (UDP) server. This server transmits infrared data to a newly developed PCS algorithm that estimates the heat flux to PFC. Here, a proportional integral derivative (PID) controller minimizes the error between a heat flux reference and the real-time estimate by injecting nitrogen gas into the divertor.

Algorithm development↗

National Security Programs - Cyber: MMAREJBLIGE – Modular Multi Agent Grid Emulation for Joined Breakdowns in Linked Generative Emulations - 23-0644

Modular Multi Agent Grid Emulations for Joined Breakdowns in Linked Generative Emulations (MMAREJBLIGE) introduces an agent-based modeling framework into real-time cyber-physical emulation to achieve a context-aware environment that introduces operator/attacker/external-condition variability to improve emulation fidelity and testing rigor. We detail our agent framework design, internal communication via message passing, and time synchronization, as well as the individual components of the system. We include a brief analysis of several scenarios run on a real-time, hardware-in-the-loop, Industrial Control Systems (ICS) test-bed which include normal operation, physical disruption, disruption with mitigation, and disruption with mitigation during a cyber denial-of-service (DOS) attack.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Next-Generation Energy Technologies for Connected and Automated On-Road Vehicles (NEXTCAR) - Predictive Data-Driven Vehicle Dynamics and Powertrain Control: from ECU to the Cloud (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This project developed and demonstrated a predictive, data-driven vehicle control system designed to improve energy efficiency and driving performance. The team created intelligent self-driving car technology that optimizes fuel and electricity use by proactively planning vehicle actions. By combining Level 4 autonomous driving capabilities with vehicle-to-everything (V2X) connectivity, the system enables vehicles to adjust speed and change lanes in response to traffic signals, surrounding vehicles, and road conditions, reducing unnecessary stops and delays. In testing, the system improved vehicle fuel economy by more than 30% and reduced travel time by approximately 10%, compared to a conventional adaptive cruise control baseline. These results demonstrate the technical effectiveness of using predictive, V2X-enabled strategies, such as traffic light timing and surrounding traffic awareness, to inform real-time vehicle powertrain control and driving behavior. Additionally, a supporting cloud platform was developed to provide dispatch and route recommendations as well as to log vehicle data, demonstrating the economic feasibility of this approach at the fleet level. By optimizing dispatching and routing operations, this technology enables electric fleet operators to use their vehicles more efficiently and reduce reliance on diesel backups, lowering both operating costs and energy consumption. Overall, this project’s technology advances the future of clean, energy-efficient transportation, enabling vehicles and fleets to reduce energy waste, cut costs, and lower emissions through intelligent automation and connectivity.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Deep Learning-enhanced Block-Diagram Modeling of Solar Power Systems

Data-driven models of power system inverter-based resources are desired to run simulations faster than with detailed electromagnetic transient models, to hide proprietary design details, to support control system design applications, and to aggregate the effects of distributed energy resources. This paper applies a customized Hammerstein Wiener framework to train block diagram models from thousands of electromagnetic transient simulations or experimental test records. The block diagram models integrate with larger grid simulations as voltagecontrolled current sources or current-controlled voltage sources for several simulators. Guidelines for block architecture and training are presented. Three-phase balanced, three-phase unbalanced, and single-phase examples all achieve an acceptable root mean square error of no more than 0.05 per-unit.

Mcdermott, Thomas E. [Private consulting company]↗

Building ControlScore: General Service Administration Office Building Deployment

Improvements to building control systems can lead to energy savings and increased occupant comfort. In an optimized system, process variables such as air temperature will closely follow their desired setpoints and avoid excess energy use. Typically, experts must manually inspect individual control loops to identify poor performance and opportunities for improvement. However, this approach is difficult in modern buildings that have a prohibitively large number of controllers. To address this issue, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) created the ControlScore concept, which takes operating data from the many controllers within a building and generates standardized scores for each loop on a scale of 0 to 10 (a score of 0 indicates poor control, a score of 10 indicates good control). PNNL applied the Building ControlScore application to all available data from a General Services Administration office building within the period of January 1, 2023, to March 9, 2023. The building scored a 4.7 overall, with all 74 of the building’s loops fitting a roughly normal distribution centered around 5. These results indicate that the analyzed systems have below-average performance with room for improvement, especially in the poorly scored systems. Airflow loops tended to have much lower scores than zone temperature loops. The lowest and highest performing systems in the building section were identified, as were all loops with a score less than 1. While the ControlScore identifies loops and systems that aren’t meeting their designated setpoints, it does not indicate the cause of those issues. For example, consider a supply air terminal unit’s airflow loop that received a low score due to it delivering less air than specified by the setpoint. The lower-than-desired airflow could be due to equipment limitations (e.g., the terminal unit or duct serving is too small to accommodate that airflow), malfunctioning equipment (e.g., a stuck damper or bad sensor), or something else entirely. The ControlScore does not diagnose problems it simply identifies the symptoms that can be explored and addressed by building operators.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

EV Charging Infrastructure Energization An Overview of Approaches for Simplifying and Accelerating Timelines to Processing EV Charging Load Service Requests

The United States has seen significant growth in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, leading to increased demand for EV charging infrastructure. Over the past decade, EV charging infrastructure site developers, site hosts, and electric distribution utilities have navigated the process to integrate chargers onto the electric grid. Site developers and site hosts have raised the alarm that the integration process for high-powered EV charging projects does not meet the needs of the EV market for timeliness or cost. High-powered charging stations typically require a load service request or an agreement with the local utility to connect to the grid. The process of energizing a new high-powered charging site can be complex and time-consuming, often taking up to 2 years. This timeline is the result of current utility energization processes having been designed for construction projects that take longer to build (i.e., buildings). The specific challenges stem from various factors, including compartmentalization in application processes, the integration of EV charging process approvals with other distributed energy resources (DERs), and the need to ensure grid reliability. The energization process needs to evolve to meet the growing demand for high-powered EV charging. This white paper compiles information gathered through various conversations with key stakeholders, including utilities, utility regulators, EV charging operators, site developers, and authorities having jurisdiction (AHJ) as well as through an extensive literature review. This document identifies the challenges and provides potential solutions to streamline the process of connecting EV charging infrastructure to the power grid in the United States, serving as a starting point for future conversations around these solutions. The solutions noted in this white paper require collaborative efforts among utilities, regulators, and EV charging infrastructure developers to streamline the grid connection process for EV charging infrastructure. They are broadly organized into four areas: 1. Increase data access and transparency: Develop automated load service request tools, integrate hosting capacity and load service request analyses, incorporate EV adoption forecasts, and provide transparency on the processing queue. 2. Improve energization processes and timing: Create fast-track options based on prescreening criteria, provide flexibility or phased approvals in the load service request/interconnection process, build internal knowledge within utilities about EV charging technologies, and provide standardized workforce training. 3. Promote economic efficiency: Right size distribution components to accurately reflect the load requirements of EV charging infrastructure, make proactive investments in grid infrastructure based on EV adoption forecasts and growth projections, and consider energy equity and environmental justice factors such as equitable access to EV charging when planning infrastructure. 4. Improve grid reliability and resilience: Use load management/power control systems (PCS) at EV charging stations, adopt and implement harmonized standards for communication protocols and information models between the EV charging and grid control infrastructure, and address cybersecurity considerations by implementing robust security measures and standards for EV charging infrastructure—with particular emphasis on clarifying the security requirements for the interface to the grid. The objective of the solutions proposed in this white paper is to accelerate the timeline and decrease costs associated with connecting EV charging infrastructure to the grid. Electric utilities, utility regulators, EV charging infrastructure developers, and site hosts will first need to understand which solutions are available in their service territory, and if warranted, which combination of solutions would support their specific needs. Through the successful implementations of solutions at scale detailed here, industry will demonstrate a new and innovative ecosystem where timely deployment and energization of EV charging infrastructure with greater grid resiliency and reliability is a reality.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NMPC for Mode-Switching Operation of Reversible Solid Oxide Cell Systems

Solid oxide cells (SOCs) are a promising dual-mode technology that generates hydrogen through high-temperature water electrolysis and generates power through a fuel cell reaction that consumes hydrogen. Reversible operation of SOCs requires a transition between these two modes for hydrogen production setpoints as the demand and price of electricity fluctuate. Moreover, a well-functioning control system is important to avoid cell degradation during mode-switching operation. In this work, we apply nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) to an SOC module and supporting equipment and compare NMPC performance to classical proportional integral (PI) control strategies, while ramping between the modes of hydrogen and power production. While both control methods provide similar performance in many metrics, NMPC significantly reduces cell thermal gradients and curvatures (mixed spatial-temporal partial derivatives) during mode switching. A dynamic process flowsheet of the reversible SOC system was developed in the open-source, equation-based IDAES modeling framework. Our IDAES dynamic simulation results show that NMPC can ramp the SOC system between hydrogen and power production targets within short mode-switching times. Moreover, NMPC can comply with operating limits in the SOC system more effectively than PI, and only NMPC can directly enforce user-specified limits for mixed spatial-temporal partial derivatives of temperature. This allows for management of the trade-off be-tween operating efficiency and cell degradation, which is dependent on these temperature curvatures.

Li, Mingrui↗

Transformation of CeO 2 Nanoparticles into Atomically Dispersed Ce Cations Leads to Enhanced Reactivity for Automotive Emissions Control

Nanosized cerium oxide (CeO 2 ) has been extensively used as the oxygen storage component in automotive emission control systems. However, the possible influence of atomically dispersed Ce in these catalysts has not been recognized. Here, in this study, we demonstrate the controllable transformation of ceria nanoparticles into isolated cerium cations on γ-Al 2 O 3 via reductive atom trapping in 10% H 2 at 800 °C, achieving over half-monolayer coverage. Dispersed Ce 1 ions anchored by surface penta- and octa-coordinated Al sites exhibit outstanding thermal stability in air up to 500 °C, enabling further loading of active metals with well-defined catalyst structures. With this strategy, supported single-atom Rh 1 surrounded by dispersed Ce 1 is confirmed to exhibit much superior performance to Rh 1 on bare Al 2 O 3 or nanocrystalline CeO 2 in catalyzing NO reduction by CO, exhibiting a striking one-order-of-magnitude increase in activity. Dispersed Ce 1 exhibits greatly enhanced oxygen transfer capability compared to ceria nanoparticles and introduces a modified reaction mechanism that involves an adjacent Rh 1 –Ce 1 motif, resulting in a greatly decreased activation barrier (from 192 to 96 kJ/mol). The reactivity enhancements are also seen with Ce 1 -promoted Pt nanoparticles for oxidation of CO and hydrocarbons.

Jiang, Dong [Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA (↗

ARCADE (Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment)

SAND2025-11780O ARCADE (Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment) software performs cybersecurity experiments on Defensive Cyber Security Architectures (DCSA) for Distributed Control Systems (DCSs). The application is integrated into a cohesive environment that performs cyber risk analyses and reduces costs. ARCADE can investigate the entire cyber-attack surface of a DCS from the physics of control, down to the firmware of individual components with automated efficiency. ARCADE has five major functional components: the Data Broker system, the virtualization environment, the cyber-attack simulator, the cyber-physical analysis system, and the physics simulator. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Valme, Romuald↗

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

Systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) is becoming an increasingly popular technique to assess how complex digital software systems can fail. Rather than defining failures by their observable failure events, which may be sparse especially for safety rated nuclear digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C), failures are defined as postulated unsafe actions under specific contextual conditions. This permits a top-down analysis of system hazards and identifies whether imposed constraints and requirements can sufficiently address undesirable hazards. However, STPA is a qualitative approach at identifying inadequacies in the development process and cannot currently be used to quantify unsafe action likelihoods for probabilistic risk assessment. Therefore, in this work, we examine the root causes of software failure and explore whether a consistent correlation can be linked to specific unsafe action classes. We implement Lbl2Vec, an unsupervised document classification and retrieval algorithm, on a database of 4,096 software defect reports acquired from various open-source software systems. By analyzing sentence structure, embedded labels, and word vectors, we show that certain defect types positively correlate to specific unsafe action classes over others. The correlations developed can be used to estimate the failure probability of safety intended DI&C systems which provides a licensing basis for nuclear plant modernization efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗