Results for “cost estimating tools” — Page 13

NASA NTRS2017

Using Satellite Remote Sensing to Map Changes in Aquatic Invasive Plant Cover in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta of California

Waterways of the Sacramento San Joaquin Delta have recently become infested with invasive aquatic weeds such as floating water hyacinth (Eichhoria crassipes) and water primrose (Ludwigia peploides). These invasive plants cause many negative impacts, including, but not limited to: the blocking of waterways for commercial shipping and boating; clogging of irrigation screens, pumps and canals; and degradation of biological habitat through shading. Zhang et al. (1997, Ecological Applications, 7(3), 1039-1053) used NASA Landsat satellite imagery together with field calibration measurements to map physical and biological processes within marshlands of the San Francisco Bay. Live green biomass (LGB) and related variables were correlated with a simple vegetation index ratio of red and near infra-red bands from Landsat images. More recently, the percent (water area) cover of water hyacinth plotted against estimated LGB of emergent aquatic vegetation in the Delta from September 2014 Landsat imagery showed a 80% overall accuracy. For the past two years, we have partnered with the U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Department of Plant Sciences, University of California at Davis to conduct new validation surveys of water hyacinth and water primrose coverage and LGB in Delta waterways. A plan is underway to transfer decision support tools developed at NASA's Ames Research Center based on Landsat satellite images to improve Delta-wide integrated management of floating aquatic weeds, while reducing chemical control costs. The main end-user for this application project will be the Division of Boating and Waterways (DBW) of the California Department of Parks and Recreation, who has the responsibility for chemical control of water hyacinth in the Delta.

Map Changes↗

NASA NTRS2016

Analysis of Satellite and Airborne Imagery for Detection of Water Hyacinth and Other Invasive Floating Macrophytes and Tracking of Aquatic Weed Control Efficacy

Waterways of the Sacramento San Joaquin Delta have recently become infested with invasive aquatic weeds such as floating water hyacinth (Eichhoria crassipes) and water primrose (Ludwigia peploides). These invasive plants cause many negative impacts, including, but not limited to: the blocking of waterways for commercial shipping and boating; clogging of irrigation screens, pumps and canals; and degradation of biological habitat through shading. Zhang et al. (1997, Ecological Applications, 7(3), 1039-1053) used NASA Landsat satellite imagery together with field calibration measurements to map physical and biological processes within marshlands of the San Francisco Bay. Live green biomass (LGB) and related variables were correlated with a simple vegetation index ratio of red and near infra-red bands from Landsat images. More recently, the percent (water area) cover of water hyacinth plotted against estimated LGB of emergent aquatic vegetation in the Delta from September 2014 Landsat imagery showed an 80 percent overall accuracy. For the past two years, we have partnered with the U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Department of Plant Sciences, University of California at Davis to conduct new validation surveys of water hyacinth and water primrose coverage and LGB in Delta waterways. A plan is underway to transfer decision support tools developed at NASA's Ames Research Center based on Landsat satellite images to improve Delta-wide integrated management of floating aquatic weeds, while reducing chemical control costs. The main end-user for this application project will be the Division of Boating and Waterways (DBW) of the California Department of Parks and Recreation, who has the responsibility for chemical control of water hyacinth in the Delta.

Agriculture↗

NASA NTRS2017

Conceptual Feasibility Study of the Hyperloop Vehicle for Next-Generation Transport

The Hyperloop concept is proposed as a faster, cheaper alternative to high-speed rail and traditional short-haul aircraft. It consists of a passenger pod traveling through a tube under light vacuum while being propelled and levitated by a combination of permanent and electro-magnets. The concept addresses NASA's research thrusts for growth in demand, sustainability, and technology convergence for high-speed transport. Hyperloop is a radical departure from other advanced aviation concepts, however it remains an aeronautics concept that tackles the same strategic goals of low-carbon propulsion and ultra-effcient vehicles. System feasibility was investigated by building a multidisciplinary vehicle sizing model that takes into account aerodynamic, thermodynamic, structures, electromagnetic, weight, and mission analyses. The sizing process emphasized the strong coupling between the two largest systems: the tube and the passenger pod. The model was then exercised to examine Hyperloop from a technical and cost perspective. The structural sizing analysis of the travel tube demonstrates potential for signi cant capital cost reductions by considering an underwater route. Examination of varying passenger capacity indicates that the system can be operated with a wide range of passenger loads without significant change in operating expenses. Lastly, a high-level sizing study simulated variations in tube area, pressure, pod speed, and passenger capacity showing that there is a tube pressure that minimizes operating energy usage. The value of this optimal tube pressure is highly sensitive to numerous design details. These combined estimates of energy consumption, passenger throughput, and mission analyses all support Hyperloop as a faster and cheaper alternative to short-haul flights. The tools and expertise used to quantify these results also demonstrate how traditional aerospace design methods can be leveraged to handle the complex and coupled design process. Much of the technology development required for the Hyperloop is shared with next-generation aircraft. Furthermore, the substantial public interest and active commercial development make it an ideal candidate as an aircraft technology driver and test bed.

Hyperloop Vehicle↗

NASA NTRS1992

Stratospheric turbulence measurements and models for aerospace plane design

Progress in computational atmospheric dynamics is exhibiting the ability of numerical simulation to describe instability processes associated with turbulence observed at altitudes between 15 and 25 km in the lower stratosphere. As these numerical simulation tools mature, they can be used to extend estimates of atmospheric perturbations from the present gust database for airplane design at altitudes below 15 km to altitudes between 25 and 50 km where aerospace plane operation would be at hypersonic speeds. The amount of available gust data and number of temperature perturbation observations are limited at altitudes between 15 and 25 km. On the other hand, in-situ gust data at higher altitudes are virtually nonexistent. The uncertain potential for future airbreathing hypersonic flight research vehicles to encounter strong turbulence at higher altitudes could penalize the design of these vehicles by undue cost or limitations on performance. Because the atmospheric structure changes markedly with altitude, direct extrapolation of gust magnitudes and encounter probabilities to the higher flight altitudes is not advisable. This paper presents a brief review of turbulence characteristics observed in the lower stratosphere and highlights the progress of computational atmospheric dynamics that may be used to estimate the severity of atmospheric transients at higher altitudes.

Ehernberger, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Stratospheric turbulence measurements and models for aerospace plane design

Progress in computational atmospheric dynamics is exhibiting the ability of numerical simulation to describe instability processes associated with turbulence observed at altitudes between 15 and 25 km in the lower stratosphere. As these numerical simulation tools mature, they can be used to extend estimates of atmospheric perturbations from the present gust database for airplane design at altitudes below 15 km to altitudes between 25 and 50 km where aerospace plane operation would be at hypersonic speeds. The amount of available gust data and number of temperature perturbation observations are limited at altitudes between 15 and 25 km. On the other hand, in-situ gust data at higher altitudes are virtually nonexistent. The uncertain potential for future airbreathing hypersonic flight research vehicles to encounter strong turbulence at higher altitudes could penalize the design of these vehicles by undue cost or limitations on performance. Because the atmospheric structure changes markedly with altitude, direct extrapolation of gust magnitudes and encounter probabilities to the higher flight altitudes is not advisable. This paper presents a brief review of turbulence characteristics observed in the lower stratosphere and highlights the progress of computational atmospheric dynamics that may be used to estimate the severity of atmospheric transients at higher altitudes.

Ehernberger, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Dynamic Systems Analysis for Turbine Based Aero Propulsion Systems

The aircraft engine design process seeks to optimize the overall system-level performance, weight, and cost for a given concept. Steady-state simulations and data are used to identify trade-offs that should be balanced to optimize the system in a process known as systems analysis. These systems analysis simulations and data may not adequately capture the true performance trade-offs that exist during transient operation. Dynamic systems analysis provides the capability for assessing the dynamic tradeoffs at an earlier stage of the engine design process. The dynamic systems analysis concept, developed tools, and potential benefit are presented in this paper. To provide this capability, the Tool for Turbine Engine Closed-loop Transient Analysis (TTECTrA) was developed to provide the user with an estimate of the closed-loop performance (response time) and operability (high pressure compressor surge margin) for a given engine design and set of control design requirements. TTECTrA along with engine deterioration information, can be used to develop a more generic relationship between performance and operability that can impact the engine design constraints and potentially lead to a more efficient engine.

dynamic analysis↗

NASA NTRS2013

Good Practices in Free-energy Calculations

As access to computational resources continues to increase, free-energy calculations have emerged as a powerful tool that can play a predictive role in drug design. Yet, in a number of instances, the reliability of these calculations can be improved significantly if a number of precepts, or good practices are followed. For the most part, the theory upon which these good practices rely has been known for many years, but often overlooked, or simply ignored. In other cases, the theoretical developments are too recent for their potential to be fully grasped and merged into popular platforms for the computation of free-energy differences. The current best practices for carrying out free-energy calculations will be reviewed demonstrating that, at little to no additional cost, free-energy estimates could be markedly improved and bounded by meaningful error estimates. In energy perturbation and nonequilibrium work methods, monitoring the probability distributions that underlie the transformation between the states of interest, performing the calculation bidirectionally, stratifying the reaction pathway and choosing the most appropriate paradigms and algorithms for transforming between states offer significant gains in both accuracy and precision. In thermodynamic integration and probability distribution (histogramming) methods, properly designed adaptive techniques yield nearly uniform sampling of the relevant degrees of freedom and, by doing so, could markedly improve efficiency and accuracy of free energy calculations without incurring any additional computational expense.

Pohorille, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2005

Managing Space Radiation Risks On Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Improving Conceptual Design for Launch Vehicles

This report summarizes activities performed during the second year of a three year cooperative agreement between NASA - Langley Research Center and Georgia Tech. Year 1 of the project resulted in the creation of a new Cost and Business Assessment Model (CABAM) for estimating the economic performance of advanced reusable launch vehicles including non-recurring costs, recurring costs, and revenue. The current year (second year) activities were focused on the evaluation of automated, collaborative design frameworks (computation architectures or computational frameworks) for automating the design process in advanced space vehicle design. Consistent with NASA's new thrust area in developing and understanding Intelligent Synthesis Environments (ISE), the goals of this year's research efforts were to develop and apply computer integration techniques and near-term computational frameworks for conducting advanced space vehicle design. NASA - Langley (VAB) has taken a lead role in developing a web-based computing architectures within which the designer can interact with disciplinary analysis tools through a flexible web interface. The advantages of this approach are, 1) flexible access to the designer interface through a simple web browser (e.g. Netscape Navigator), 2) ability to include existing 'legacy' codes, and 3) ability to include distributed analysis tools running on remote computers. To date, VAB's internal emphasis has been on developing this test system for the planetary entry mission under the joint Integrated Design System (IDS) program with NASA - Ames and JPL. Georgia Tech's complementary goals this year were to: 1) Examine an alternate 'custom' computational architecture for the three-discipline IDS planetary entry problem to assess the advantages and disadvantages relative to the web-based approach.and 2) Develop and examine a web-based interface and framework for a typical launch vehicle design problem.

John R. Olds↗

NASA NTRS2015

ExMC Work Prioritization Process

Last year, NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) introduced the concept of a "Path to Risk Reduction" (PRR), which will provide a roadmap that shows how the work being done within each HRP element can be mapped to reducing or closing exploration risks. Efforts are currently underway within the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element to develop a structured, repeatable process for prioritizing work utilizing decision analysis techniques and risk estimation tools. The goal of this effort is to ensure that the work done within the element maximizes risk reduction for future exploration missions in a quantifiable way and better aligns with the intent and content of the Path to Risk Reduction. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) will be used to identify those conditions that are major contributors of medical risk for a given design reference mission. For each of these conditions, potential prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment methods will be identified. ExMC will then aim to prioritize its potential investments in these mitigation methods based upon their potential for risk reduction and other factors such as vehicle performance impacts, near term schedule needs, duplication with external efforts, and cost. This presentation will describe the process developed to perform this prioritization and inform investment discussions in future element planning efforts. It will also provide an overview of the required input information, types of process participants, figures of merit, and the expected outputs of the process.

Simon, Matthew↗

NASA NTRS2014

Conceptual Design Optimization of an Augmented Stability Aircraft Incorporating Dynamic Response and Actuator Constraints

Empirical sizing guidelines such as tail volume coefficients have long been used in the early aircraft design phases for sizing stabilizers, resulting in conservatively stable aircraft. While successful, this results in increased empty weight, reduced performance, and greater procurement and operational cost relative to an aircraft with optimally sized surfaces. Including flight dynamics in the conceptual design process allows the design to move away from empirical methods while implementing modern control techniques. A challenge of flight dynamics and control is the numerous design variables, which are changing fluidly throughout the conceptual design process, required to evaluate the system response to some disturbance. This research focuses on addressing that challenge not by implementing higher order tools, such as computational fluid dynamics, but instead by linking the lower order tools typically used within the conceptual design process so each discipline feeds into the other. In thisresearch, flight dynamics and control was incorporated into the conceptual design process along with the traditional disciplines of vehicle sizing, weight estimation, aerodynamics, and performance. For the controller, a linear quadratic regulator structure with constant gains has been specified to reduce the user input. Coupling all the disciplines in the conceptual design phase allows the aircraft designer to explore larger design spaces where stabilizers are sized according to dynamic response constraints rather than historical static margin and volume coefficient guidelines.

Welstead, Jason↗

NASA NTRS2012

Evaluation of Algorithms for a Miles-in-Trail Decision Support Tool

Four machine learning algorithms were prototyped and evaluated for use in a proposed decision support tool that would assist air traffic managers as they set Miles-in-Trail restrictions. The tool would display probabilities that each possible Miles-in-Trail value should be used in a given situation. The algorithms were evaluated with an expected Miles-in-Trail cost that assumes traffic managers set restrictions based on the tool-suggested probabilities. Basic Support Vector Machine, random forest, and decision tree algorithms were evaluated, as was a softmax regression algorithm that was modified to explicitly reduce the expected Miles-in-Trail cost. The algorithms were evaluated with data from the summer of 2011 for air traffic flows bound to the Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) over the ARD, PENNS, and SHAFF fixes. The algorithms were provided with 18 input features that describe the weather at EWR, the runway configuration at EWR, the scheduled traffic demand at EWR and the fixes, and other traffic management initiatives in place at EWR. Features describing other traffic management initiatives at EWR and the weather at EWR achieved relatively high information gain scores, indicating that they are the most useful for estimating Miles-in-Trail. In spite of a high variance or over-fitting problem, the decision tree algorithm achieved the lowest expected Miles-in-Trail costs when the algorithms were evaluated using 10-fold cross validation with the summer 2011 data for these air traffic flows.

Bloem, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2006

Single- and Multiple-Objective Optimization with Differential Evolution and Neural Networks

Genetic and evolutionary algorithms have been applied to solve numerous problems in engineering design where they have been used primarily as optimization procedures. These methods have an advantage over conventional gradient-based search procedures became they are capable of finding global optima of multi-modal functions and searching design spaces with disjoint feasible regions. They are also robust in the presence of noisy data. Another desirable feature of these methods is that they can efficiently use distributed and parallel computing resources since multiple function evaluations (flow simulations in aerodynamics design) can be performed simultaneously and independently on ultiple processors. For these reasons genetic and evolutionary algorithms are being used more frequently in design optimization. Examples include airfoil and wing design and compressor and turbine airfoil design. They are also finding increasing use in multiple-objective and multidisciplinary optimization. This lecture will focus on an evolutionary method that is a relatively new member to the general class of evolutionary methods called differential evolution (DE). This method is easy to use and program and it requires relatively few user-specified constants. These constants are easily determined for a wide class of problems. Fine-tuning the constants will off course yield the solution to the optimization problem at hand more rapidly. DE can be efficiently implemented on parallel computers and can be used for continuous, discrete and mixed discrete/continuous optimization problems. It does not require the objective function to be continuous and is noise tolerant. DE and applications to single and multiple-objective optimization will be included in the presentation and lecture notes. A method for aerodynamic design optimization that is based on neural networks will also be included as a part of this lecture. The method offers advantages over traditional optimization methods. It is more flexible than other methods in dealing with design in the context of both steady and unsteady flows, partial and complete data sets, combined experimental and numerical data, inclusion of various constraints and rules of thumb, and other issues that characterize the aerodynamic design process. Neural networks provide a natural framework within which a succession of numerical solutions of increasing fidelity, incorporating more realistic flow physics, can be represented and utilized for optimization. Neural networks also offer an excellent framework for multiple-objective and multi-disciplinary design optimization. Simulation tools from various disciplines can be integrated within this framework and rapid trade-off studies involving one or many disciplines can be performed. The prospect of combining neural network based optimization methods and evolutionary algorithms to obtain a hybrid method with the best properties of both methods will be included in this presentation. Achieving solution diversity and accurate convergence to the exact Pareto front in multiple objective optimization usually requires a significant computational effort with evolutionary algorithms. In this lecture we will also explore the possibility of using neural networks to obtain estimates of the Pareto optimal front using non-dominated solutions generated by DE as training data. Neural network estimators have the potential advantage of reducing the number of function evaluations required to obtain solution accuracy and diversity, thus reducing cost to design.

Rai, Man Mohan↗

NASA NTRS2016

NASA's X-Plane Database and Parametric Cost Model v 2.0

The NASA Armstrong Cost Engineering Team with technical assistance from NASA HQ (SID)has gone through the full process in developing new CERs from Version #1 to Version #2 CERs. We took a step backward and reexamined all of the data collected, such as dependent and independent variables, cost, dry weight, length, wingspan, manned versus unmanned, altitude, Mach number, thrust, and skin. We used a well- known statistical analysis tool called CO$TAT instead of using "R" multiple linear or the "Regression" tool found in Microsoft Excel(TradeMark). We setup an "array of data" by adding 21" dummy variables;" we analyzed the standard error (SE) and then determined the "best fit." We have parametrically priced-out several future X-planes and compared our results to those of other resources. More work needs to be done in getting "accurate and traceable cost data" from historical X-plane records!

life cycle cost↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Computational Approach for Probabilistic Analysis of LS-DYNA Water Impact Simulations

NASA s development of new concepts for the Crew Exploration Vehicle Orion presents many similar challenges to those worked in the sixties during the Apollo program. However, with improved modeling capabilities, new challenges arise. For example, the use of the commercial code LS-DYNA, although widely used and accepted in the technical community, often involves high-dimensional, time consuming, and computationally intensive simulations. Because of the computational cost, these tools are often used to evaluate specific conditions and rarely used for statistical analysis. The challenge is to capture what is learned from a limited number of LS-DYNA simulations to develop models that allow users to conduct interpolation of solutions at a fraction of the computational time. For this problem, response surface models are used to predict the system time responses to a water landing as a function of capsule speed, direction, attitude, water speed, and water direction. Furthermore, these models can also be used to ascertain the adequacy of the design in terms of probability measures. This paper presents a description of the LS-DYNA model, a brief summary of the response surface techniques, the analysis of variance approach used in the sensitivity studies, equations used to estimate impact parameters, results showing conditions that might cause injuries, and concluding remarks.

Horta, Lucas G.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Conceptual Launch Vehicle and Spacecraft Design for Risk Assessment

One of the most challenging aspects of developing human space launch and exploration systems is minimizing and mitigating the many potential risk factors to ensure the safest possible design while also meeting the required cost, weight, and performance criteria. In order to accomplish this, effective risk analyses and trade studies are needed to identify key risk drivers, dependencies, and sensitivities as the design evolves. The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) develops advanced risk analysis approaches, models, and tools to provide such meaningful risk and reliability data throughout vehicle development. The goal of the project presented in this memorandum is to design a generic launch 7 vehicle and spacecraft architecture that can be used to develop and demonstrate these new risk analysis techniques without relying on other proprietary or sensitive vehicle designs. To accomplish this, initial spacecraft and launch vehicle (LV) designs were established using historical sizing relationships for a mission delivering four crewmembers and equipment to the International Space Station (ISS). Mass-estimating relationships (MERs) were used to size the crew capsule and launch vehicle, and a combination of optimization techniques and iterative design processes were employed to determine a possible two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) launch trajectory into a 350-kilometer orbit. Primary subsystems were also designed for the crewed capsule architecture, based on a 24-hour on-orbit mission with a 7-day contingency. Safety analysis was also performed to identify major risks to crew survivability and assess the system's overall reliability. These procedures and analyses validate that the architecture's basic design and performance are reasonable to be used for risk trade studies. While the vehicle designs presented are not intended to represent a viable architecture, they will provide a valuable initial platform for developing and demonstrating innovative risk assessment capabilities.

Launch Vehicle↗