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At least 235 records · Page 13

Application of the Rossi-alpha method to simulations of HEU and organic scintillators

The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook contains thousands of high-quality benchmark measurements that include detailed descriptions of experiment designs and exhaustive accounting of uncertainties. These benchmarks are used extensively by the criticality safety and nuclear data communities. A subcritical benchmark involving bare, highly enriched uranium (HEU) has yet to be accepted to the handbook. The Measurement of Uranium Subcritical and Critical (MUSiC) was proposed to address this gap. MUSiC will be performed at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) and will leverage bare HEU hemisphere shells that can be assembled in a variety of configurations. The measurement has the following key benefits: it will be the first set of fast, subcritical measurements of HEU to be submitted to ICSBEP; ten configurations will be measured spanning from nearly no multiplication to critical (e.g., it is a measurement of similar systems with different re activities); measurements of an all-HEU system will be of value for nuclear data validation, providing results that assist in determining biases in both measurements and simulations. A variety of detector systems will be used including a Neutron Multiplicity Array Detector (NoMAD) system (similar to the MC-15), four small volume 0.635 cm (#8960;) × 7.59 cm 3He detectors (ideal for measuring prompt neutron decay constants due to their fast recovery speed), and an array of eight 5.08 cm (#8960;) × 5.08 cm EJ-309 organic scintillator detectors. The focus of this work is the simulation of the subcritical MUSiC configurations including the EJ-309 detectors and the application of the Rossi-α method. The EJ-309 organic scintillator detector array is a new detection system that will be deployed at NCERC. Organic scintillators are ideal for measurements of fast, subcritical systems due to their short time response on the order of nanoseconds.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

TEAMER - AquaHarmonics High Fidelity WEC Sim PTO and Control Model Validation, Sim Model

Collaborative effort between AquaHarmonics, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to revise and validate Aquaharmonics' full wave to wire model, allowing for reduced uncertainty and increased understanding of design requirements of a utility scale wave energy converter (WEC). SNL and NREL in collaboration with AquaHarmonics, will set up and run WEC Simulator (WEC-Sim) models of the AquaHarmonics WEC, building off past model developments for inclusion of custom PTO (power take-off) dynamics. The intent is to review, update, and verify or validate a new WEC-Sim model against wave tank experimental data. Furthermore, the WEC-Sim model will be coupled to an energy storage system model to better understand the wave-to-wire functionality. Project is part of the TEAMER (Testing & Expertise for Marine Energy) RFTS (request for technical support) system of WEC research projects. Testing data can be found in the associated MHKDR link below.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

TEAMER - AquaHarmonics High Fidelity WEC Sim PTO and Control Model Validation, Test Logs and Results

Collaborative effort between AquaHarmonics, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to revise and validate Aquaharmonics' full wave to wire model, allowing for reduced uncertainty and increased understanding of design requirements of a utility scale wave energy converter (WEC). SNL and NREL in collaboration with AquaHarmonics, will set up and run WEC Simulator (WEC-Sim) models of the AquaHarmonics WEC, building off past model developments for inclusion of custom PTO (power take-off) dynamics. The intent is to review, update, and verify or validate a new WEC-Sim model against wave tank experimental data. Furthermore, the WEC-Sim model will be coupled to an energy storage system model to better understand the wave-to-wire functionality. This data set is described in the "Test Log" excel file. Please refer to that document for details on each specific test date/time, constraint parameters and model hardware setup details. Sim model can be found in the associated MHKDR link below.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

stochprop Documentation (Release 1.0)

Simulations of infrasonic propagation in the atmosphere typically utilize a single atmospheric specification describing the acoustic sound speed, ambient winds, and density as a function of altitude. Due to the dynamic and sparsely sampled nature of the atmosphere, there is a notable amount of uncertainty in the atmospheric state at a given location and time so that a more robust analysis of infrasonic propagation requires inclusion of this uncertainty. This Python library, stochprop, has been implemented using methods developed jointly by infrasound scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and the University of Mississippi’s National Center for Physical Acoustics (NCPA). This software library includes methods to quantify variability in the atmospheric state, identify typical seasonal variability in the atmospheric state and generate suites of representative atmospheric states during a given season, as well as perform uncertainty analysis on a specified atmospheric state given some level of uncertainty. These methods have been designed to interface between propagation modeling capabilities such as InfraGA/GeoAc and NCPAprop and signal analysis methods in the LANL InfraPy tool.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

High-burnup Experiments in Reactivity Initiated Accidents (HERA)

High-burnup Experiments in Reactivity-initiated Accidents (HERA) is a joint experimental program (JEEP) operating within the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Energy Agency’s (NEA’s) framework for irradiation experiments (FIDES). HERA is dedicated to the understanding of light water reactor (LWR) fuel performance at high burnup under reactivity-initiated accidents (RIA). In-pile RIA experiments have been performed on high-burnup fuels (e.g., above 60 gigawatt days per metric ton of uranium [GWd/MTU]) in the CABRI reactor at the Cadarache site in southern France, and the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor (NSRR) in Japan. However, most of these experiments have taken place with heavily corroded Zircaloy claddings with pulse widths that are narrower (e.g., 5 ms – 30 ms full-width-half-max [FWHM]) than what would be likely in a commercial LWR (e.g., 30 ms – 80 ms FWHM). A few tests were performed in the CABRI facility with FWHM up to 76 ms, though only one “blistered” rod experienced cladding failure. Heavy waterside corrosion and narrow pulse widths are both known to increase the vulnerability of LWR fuel to pellet cladding mechanical interaction (PCMI). The HERA proposal is designed to: (1) quantify the impact of pulse width on fuel performance, offering new insight into the applicability of existing data; (2) generate new data on high burnup fuel under pulse conditions prototypic of LWRs; (3) quantify the additional margin provided by modern cladding alloys to PCMI failure limits; and (4) offer improved data for modelers using specially designed tests that eliminate key uncertainties in high-burnup fuel tests.

(HERA)↗

FY2022 Progress Report for Advanced Re-fabrication/Re-instrumentation Capability Development

In support of performing follow-on irradiation experiments with previously irradiated materials, the Halden Reactor Project developed unique and state of the art capabilities to refabricate and re-instrument previously irradiated materials. Such materials were used in in-pile tests at the Halden reactor, and out-of-pile tests for example using furnaces as a heat source. The decision to close the Halden Reactor Project results in the loss of this refabrication and re-instrumentation capability. As a result, the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) has determined to develop refabrication and re-instrumentation capability at the unique shielded facilities at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The development of refabrication capability has been completed and demonstrated. This report focuses on the complementary aspects of reinstrumentation and the progress to-date. Halden spent nearly 30 years developing both refabrication and re-instrumentation. Collaboration with Halden is allowing Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to develop this capability much more rapidly. In FY-21 the results include development of the capability to drill annular center holes in ceramic UO2 fuel pellets, development of fuel rod end caps with feedthroughs for centerline instrumentation inside the rodlet, The procurement of both fuel drilling and welding demonstration equipment from Halden, evaluation of surface thermocouple attachments to support better understanding of temperature measurement uncertainties, and finally, the conceptual design of a new shielded enclosure where advanced refabrication and re-instrumentation equipment can be housed. In FY-22, the results include; Completing set up of the drilling and welding modules procured from Halden, and early experimental trials using that equipment.; Completing set up of an out-of-cell circumferential weld system to allow for further weld development to take place and support fabrication of fuel for fresh fuel experiments.; Evaluation of the Hot Fuel Examination Facility (HFEF) infrastructure to support future installation of advanced re-fabrication/re-instrumentation equipment, specifically related to necessary infrastructure for cryo-drilling.; Developments in dry-drilling alternative. Including experimental studies showing cordierite is the most suitable surrogate for UO 2 for performing drilling studies. That drilling performance is enhanced when a fuel-clad bonding condition is simulated.; Conceptual design completed for attaching surface thermocouples to irradiated fuel in support of TWIST capsule experiments. The authors would like to thank the numerous colleagues at INL and Halden who provided support in accomplishing this work. Their support both material and intellectual is invaluable in advancing the state of the art and establishing the capabilities for refabrication and re-instrumentation at INL.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

FY21 Progress Report for Advanced Re fabrication/Re-instrumentation Capability Development

In support of performing follow on irradiation experiments with previously irradiated materials, the Halden Reactor Project developed unique and state of the art capabilities to refabricate and re-instrument previously irradiated materials. Such materials were used in in-pile tests at the Halden reactor, and out-of-pile tests for example using furnaces as a heat source. The decision to close the Halden Reactor Project results in the loss of this refabrication and reinstrumentation capability. As a result, the United States Department of Energy has determined to develop refabrication and re-instrumentation capability at the unique shielded facilities at Idaho National Laboratory. The development of refabrication capability has been completed and demonstrated. This report focuses on the complementary aspects of re-instrumentation and the progress to date. Halden spent nearly 30 years developing both refabrication and reinstrumentation. Collaboration with Halden is allowing INL to develop this capability much more rapidly. The results include development of the capability to drill annular center holes in ceramic UO2 fuel pellets, development of fuel rod end caps with feedthroughs for centerline instrumentation inside the rodlet, The procurement of both fuel drilling and welding demonstration equipment from Halden, evaluation of surface thermocouple attachments to support better understanding of temperature measurement uncertainties, and finally, the conceptual design of a new shielded enclosure where advanced refabrication and re-instrumentation equipment can be housed. The authors would like to thank the numerous colleagues at INL and Halden who provided support in accomplishing this work. Their support both material and intellectual is invaluable in advancing the state of the art and establishing the capabilities for refabrication and re-instrumentation at INL.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Hypercomplex Automatic Differentiation in the Eulerian Hydrocode PAGOSA

Enabling the computation of partial derivatives or sensitivities in production hydrocodes is beneficial for design, optimization, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification. Traditional finite difference approximations of these sensitivities are inefficient since convergence studies of the step size is required for each parameter of interest. For these reasons, HYPercomplex Automatic Differentiation (HYPAD) was implemented in the Eulerian hydrocode PAGOSA. HYPAD is analogous to forward-mode automatic differentiation except hypercomplex numbers (numbers with multiple imaginary parts) are used instead of dual numbers. Accurate partial derivatives can be computed of all state variables with respect to multiple input variables in a single run. The method was implemented using operator overloading to handle hypercomplex algebra. HYPAD was demonstrated and verified on Sod’s shock tube problem to compute derivatives of the state variables with respect to a material parameter, initial conditions, and geometry.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Status and prospects of Muon g-2 experiment

This article reviews the muon g-2 experiment, a cornerstone in precision tests of the Standard Model of particle physics. The experiment measures the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon with unprecedented accuracy, seeking potential discrepancies between theoretical predictions and experimental results that might indicate physics beyond the Standard Model. We trace the evolution of this measurement from its beginnings at CERN in the 1960s to the current state-of-the-art experiment at Fermilab, highlighting the remarkable engineering achievements required to achieve parts-per-billion precision. Recent results from Runs 1-3 have achieved a systematic uncertainty of 70 ppb, exceeding design goals, while ongoing theoretical calculations continue to refine predictions. Despite these advances, the analysis remains statistics-limited, with continued data collection and novel experimental approaches at MUonE and J-PARC promising further insights into this fundamental physical quantity.

Karuza, Marin [INFN, Trieste; Rijeka U.] (ORCID:00↗

Quantum surrogate models for uncertainty quantification

Surrogate models are a critical ingredient to computation-based design and validation of many DOE mission-relevant physical systems. When first-principles computation of properties of a physical systems becomes pro hibitive, surrogate models are the only path towards achieving tasks such as uncertainty quantification (UQ), exploration of design space, and validation of design choices. In this project we have developed and demonstrated a new surro gate modeling paradigm for complex models that is data-driven, non-intrusive, and has the potential to be versatile and equipped with performance guaran tees. This combination of features is absent in existing surrogate modeling tools. The framework we have developed in this project exploits a quantum-classical correspondence to establish a quantum system that mimics the dynamics of the classical Hamiltonian system from which data in the form of temporal snapshots is provided. Since quantum dynamics propagates distributions over observables, the framework is naturally suited to propagation of epistemic uncertainties in the form of distributions over initial state and parametric uncertainties. In this project, we take the first step in establishing this novel framework by deriving a quantization and de-quantization procedure, demonstrating the accuracy of the quantum surrogate models these define using two model systems, and defining the next steps in maturing the framework towards a tool applicable to Sandia mission-relevant problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

EUCLID Experiment: Design, Execution, and Early Results [Slides]

This presentation covers design, execution, and early results for the EUCLID experiment. Unresolved compensating errors for Pu-239 and the Joint uncertainty problems are discussed. Various tools and design implementations are discussed along with upcoming work. Additional slides compare EUCLID calculations to experiment for several nuclear data libraries. ENDF/B-VIII.1β2 is named e81b2.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluation of Seismic Artificial Intelligence with Uncertainty

Artificial intelligence has transformed the seismic community with deep learning models (DLMs) that are trained to complete specific tasks within workflows. However, there is still a lack of robust evaluation frameworks for evaluating and comparing DLMs. Here, we address this gap by designing an evaluation framework that jointly incorporates two crucial aspects: performance uncertainty and learning efficiency. To target these aspects, we meticulously construct the training, validation, and test splits using a clustering method tailored to seismic data and enact an expansive training design to segregate performance uncertainty arising from stochastic training processes and random data sampling. The framework’s ability to guard against misleading declarations of model superiority is demonstrated through the evaluation of PhaseNet (Zhu and Beroza, 2018), a popular seismic phase picking DLM, under three training approaches. Our framework helps practitioners choose the best model for their problem and set performance expectations by explicitly analyzing model performance with uncertainty at varying budgets of training data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sensitivity-Driven Experimental Design to Facilitate Control of Dynamical Systems

Control of nonlinear dynamical systems is a complex and multifaceted process. Essential elements of many engineering systems include high-fidelity physics-based modeling, offline trajectory planning, feedback control design, and data acquisition strategies to reduce uncertainties. Here this article proposes an optimization-centric perspective which couples these elements in a cohesive framework. We introduce a novel use of hyper-differential sensitivity analysis to understand the sensitivity of feedback controllers to parametric uncertainty in physics-based models used for trajectory planning. These sensitivities provide a foundation to define an optimal experimental design which seeks to acquire data most relevant in reducing demand on the feedback controller. Our proposed framework is illustrated on the Zermelo navigation problem and a hypersonic trajectory control problem using data from NASA’s X-43 hypersonic flight tests.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Rapid data acquisition and machine learning-assisted composition design of functionally graded alloys via wire arc additive manufacturing

Abstract The lack of high-quality datasets in materials science hinders artificial intelligence (AI)-driven alloy design. To address this challenge, wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM) was employed to fabricate graded alloys, generating extensive data for machine learning (ML)-assisted property prediction. ML models were developed using high-throughput experiments, computational models, and genetic algorithm to optimize feature selection, successfully predicting hardness and porosity. The ML model demonstrated its efficacy by designing a gradient alloy with enhanced properties. However, scaling up revealed uncertainties in tensile property and porosity due to differences in size and thermal conditions between the designed alloy build and the gradient print used to construct the ML model. This underscores the need for uncertainty quantification and process optimization in WAAM-driven alloy design. Our work advances AI-integrated additive manufacturing, offering a rapid approach to exploring process–structure–property relationships and accelerating materials development.

Wang, Xin↗

Robust optimization of flexible diafiltration systems for critical mineral separations

This paper provides major contributions in expanding the literature for membrane process design with critical mineral recovery applications and showcasing the importance of robust design techniques for reducing risks of underperformance in such systems. Here, a membrane process flowsheet featuring PrOMMiS membrane models for recovering lithium/cobalt from spent batteries is showcased, uncertainty in membrane sieving and localized fouling are considered, and robust designs are obtained using the PyROS toolset. This paper is intended for a general audience of researchers working in critical minerals, membranes, and optimization related areas.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

From noise to information: The transfer function formalism for uncertainty quantification in reconstructing the nuclear density

The neutron distribution of neutron-rich nuclei provides critical information on the structure of finite nuclei and neutron stars. Parity violating experiments—such as PREX and CREX—provide a clean and largely model-independent determination of neutron densities. Such experiments, however, are challenging and expensive, which is why sound statistical arguments are required to maximize the information gained. We introduce a new framework, the “transfer function formalism,” aimed at uncertainty quantification, model selection, and experimental design in the context of neutron densities. The transfer functions (TFs) are built analytically by expressing the linear response of the objective function (e.g., χ2) to small perturbations of the data. Using the TF formalism, we are able to analyze the expected overall uncertainty—quantified in terms of bias and variance—of the mean square radius and interior density of 48 Ca and 208 Pb. Using relativistic mean field models as a proxy for the weak-charge density—and assuming that a total of five measurements could be performed on the weak form factor of 48 Ca and 208 Pb—we identify the optimal models and experimental locations that minimize the uncertainty in the extraction of the radius and interior density. We also explore the use of the TF formalism to understand the influence of prior distributions for the model parameters, as well as the optimization of model hyperparameters not constrained by the data. Here,we establish how the choice of experimental locations and the model that is used can have a significant impact on the final uncertainties of the extracted quantities of interest. For challenging experiments such as CREX and PREX, a proper quantification of such uncertainties is critical. We have demonstrated how the TF formalism provides several advantages for this type of analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Distribution System Behind-the-Meter DERs: Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Control

This paper summarizes the three-year technical activities of the IEEE Task Force (TF) on behind-the-meter (BTM) distributed energy resources (DERs): estimation, uncertainty quantification, and control. The potential grid services from BTM DERs are discussed in detail. The paper also reviews the state-of-the-art for BTM DERs visibility, uncertainty quantification, and, optimization and control. Furthermore, different aspects of the market structures associated with BTM DERs are covered, including emerging market and business models. Finally, needs and recommendations are provided for additional areas such as system protection, computing capabilities, algorithm development, market structure design, cyberinfrastructure and security, and hardware and software developments.

behind-the-meter↗

Probabilistic flux limiters

The stable numerical integration of shocks in compressible flow simulations relies on the reduction or elimination of Gibbs phenomena (unstable, spurious oscillations). A popular method to virtually eliminate Gibbs oscillations caused by numerical discretization in under-resolved simulations is to use a flux limiter. A wide range of flux limiters have been studied in the literature, with recent interest in their optimization via machine learning methods trained on high-resolution datasets. The common use of flux limiters in numerical codes as plug-and-play blackbox components makes them key targets for design improvement. Even for deterministic dynamical models, numerical uncertainty is introduced via coarse-graining required by insufficient computational power to solve all scales of motion. Conventional flux limiters are deterministic and lack the capacity to address uncertainties, both aleatoric (inherent randomness) and epistemic (modeling uncertainty due to limited knowledge), which arise in coarse-grained numerical simulations. Here, we introduce a conceptually distinct type of flux limiter that is designed to handle the effects of randomness in the model and uncertainty in model parameters. Unlike traditional single-function flux limiters, these new probabilistic flux limiters incorporate multiple flux limiting functions, each applied with a learned probability drawn from high-resolution data to mitigate the effects of uncertainty in numerical simulations. This approach departs from traditional single-function limiters by explicitly modeling and incorporating uncertainty into the shock capturing process. Using the example of Burgers' equation as a testbed, we show that a machine learned, probabilistic flux limiter may be used in a shock capturing code to more accurately capture shock profiles. In particular, we show that our probabilistic flux limiter outperforms standard limiters and can be successively improved upon (up to a point) by expanding the set of probabilistically chosen flux limiting functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗