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NASA NTRS2006

A Robust Scalable Transportation System Concept

This report documents the 2005 Revolutionary System Concept for Aeronautics (RSCA) study entitled "A Robust, Scalable Transportation System Concept". The objective of the study was to generate, at a high-level of abstraction, characteristics of a new concept for the National Airspace System, or the new NAS, under which transportation goals such as increased throughput, delay reduction, and improved robustness could be realized. Since such an objective can be overwhelmingly complex if pursued at the lowest levels of detail, instead a System-of-Systems (SoS) approach was adopted to model alternative air transportation architectures at a high level. The SoS approach allows the consideration of not only the technical aspects of the NAS", but also incorporates policy, socio-economic, and alternative transportation system considerations into one architecture. While the representations of the individual systems are basic, the higher level approach allows for ways to optimize the SoS at the network level, determining the best topology (i.e. configuration of nodes and links). The final product (concept) is a set of rules of behavior and network structure that not only satisfies national transportation goals, but represents the high impact rules that accomplish those goals by getting the agents to "do the right thing" naturally. The novel combination of Agent Based Modeling and Network Theory provides the core analysis methodology in the System-of-Systems approach. Our method of approach is non-deterministic which means, fundamentally, it asks and answers different questions than deterministic models. The nondeterministic method is necessary primarily due to our marriage of human systems with technological ones in a partially unknown set of future worlds. Our goal is to understand and simulate how the SoS, human and technological components combined, evolve.

Hahn, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2004

Stochastic Stability of Sampled Data Systems with a Jump Linear Controller

In this paper an equivalence between the stochastic stability of a sampled-data system and its associated discrete-time representation is established. The sampled-data system consists of a deterministic, linear, time-invariant, continuous-time plant and a stochastic, linear, time-invariant, discrete-time, jump linear controller. The jump linear controller models computer systems and communication networks that are subject to stochastic upsets or disruptions. This sampled-data model has been used in the analysis and design of fault-tolerant systems and computer-control systems with random communication delays without taking into account the inter-sample response. This paper shows that the known equivalence between the stability of a deterministic sampled-data system and the associated discrete-time representation holds even in a stochastic framework.

Gonzalez, Oscar R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Stochastic Stability of Nonlinear Sampled Data Systems with a Jump Linear Controller

This paper analyzes the stability of a sampled- data system consisting of a deterministic, nonlinear, time- invariant, continuous-time plant and a stochastic, discrete- time, jump linear controller. The jump linear controller mod- els, for example, computer systems and communication net- works that are subject to stochastic upsets or disruptions. This sampled-data model has been used in the analysis and design of fault-tolerant systems and computer-control systems with random communication delays without taking into account the inter-sample response. To analyze stability, appropriate topologies are introduced for the signal spaces of the sampled- data system. With these topologies, the ideal sampling and zero-order-hold operators are shown to be measurable maps. This paper shows that the known equivalence between the stability of a deterministic, linear sampled-data system and its associated discrete-time representation as well as between a nonlinear sampled-data system and a linearized representation holds even in a stochastic framework.

Gonzalez, Oscar R.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Stress Rupture Life Reliability Measures for Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are often used for storing pressurant gases onboard spacecraft. Kevlar (DuPont), glass, carbon and other more recent fibers have all been used as overwraps. Due to the fact that overwraps are subjected to sustained loads for an extended period during a mission, stress rupture failure is a major concern. It is therefore important to ascertain the reliability of these vessels by analysis, since the testing of each flight design cannot be completed on a practical time scale. The present paper examines specifically a Weibull statistics based stress rupture model and considers the various uncertainties associated with the model parameters. The paper also examines several reliability estimate measures that would be of use for the purpose of recertification and for qualifying flight worthiness of these vessels. Specifically, deterministic values for a point estimate, mean estimate and 90/95 percent confidence estimates of the reliability are all examined for a typical flight quality vessel under constant stress. The mean and the 90/95 percent confidence estimates are computed using Monte-Carlo simulation techniques by assuming distribution statistics of model parameters based also on simulation and on the available data, especially the sample sizes represented in the data. The data for the stress rupture model are obtained from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) stress rupture testing program, carried out for the past 35 years. Deterministic as well as probabilistic sensitivities are examined.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Rosetta Navigation at its Mars Swing-By

This paper reports on the navigation activities during Rosetta s Mars swing-by. It covers the Mars approach phase starting after a deterministic deep-space maneuver in September 2006, the swing-by proper on 25 February 2007, and ends with another deterministic deep-space maneuver in April 2007 which was also foreseen to compensate any navigation error. Emphasis is put on the orbit determination and prediction set-up and the evolution of the targeting estimates in the B-plane and their adjustments by trajectory correction maneuvers.

Budnik, Frank↗

NASA NTRS2006

Considerations for Isochronous Data Services for the Proximity-1 Space Link

Isochronous means "having equal time difference". The term Isochronous describes a system where the time difference between arrival and departure of data is constant. However, one can also consider degrees of "isochronicity" by measuring the consistency in the latency of a system. Deterministic systems (such as TDMA) has higher degree of isochronous property because resource assignments are static. For system that dynamically shares resources, variations in latency can still be controlled. Proximity-1 is not a deterministic protocol in the sense that it does not designate specific time slots to the transmissions of data and control messages. However, is it still sufficiently isochronous for carrying real-time traffic?

real time↗

NASA NTRS2008

Advanced Stirling Convertor Heater Head Durability and Reliability Quantification

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has identified the high efficiency Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) as a candidate power source for long duration Science missions, such as lunar applications, Mars rovers, and deep space missions, that require reliable design lifetimes of up to 17 years. Resistance to creep deformation of the MarM-247 heater head (HH), a structurally critical component of the ASRG Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC), under high temperatures (up to 850 C) is a key design driver for durability. Inherent uncertainties in the creep behavior of the thin-walled HH and the variations in the wall thickness, control temperature, and working gas pressure need to be accounted for in the life and reliability prediction. Due to the availability of very limited test data, assuring life and reliability of the HH is a challenging task. The NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has adopted an integrated approach combining available uniaxial MarM-247 material behavior testing, HH benchmark testing and advanced analysis in order to demonstrate the integrity, life and reliability of the HH under expected mission conditions. The proposed paper describes analytical aspects of the deterministic and probabilistic approaches and results. The deterministic approach involves development of the creep constitutive model for the MarM-247 (akin to the Oak Ridge National Laboratory master curve model used previously for Inconel 718 (Special Metals Corporation)) and nonlinear finite element analysis to predict the mean life. The probabilistic approach includes evaluation of the effect of design variable uncertainties in material creep behavior, geometry and operating conditions on life and reliability for the expected life. The sensitivity of the uncertainties in the design variables on the HH reliability is also quantified, and guidelines to improve reliability are discussed.

Krause, David L.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Automated Assume-Guarantee Reasoning by Abstraction Refinement

Current automated approaches for compositional model checking in the assume-guarantee style are based on learning of assumptions as deterministic automata. We propose an alternative approach based on abstraction refinement. Our new method computes the assumptions for the assume-guarantee rules as conservative and not necessarily deterministic abstractions of some of the components, and refines those abstractions using counter-examples obtained from model checking them together with the other components. Our approach also exploits the alphabets of the interfaces between components and performs iterative refinement of those alphabets as well as of the abstractions. We show experimentally that our preliminary implementation of the proposed alternative achieves similar or better performance than a previous learning-based implementation.

Pasareanu, Corina S.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Dynamic Probabilistic Instability of Composite Structures

A computationally effective method is described to evaluate the non-deterministic dynamic instability (probabilistic dynamic buckling) of thin composite shells. The method is a judicious combination of available computer codes for finite element, composite mechanics and probabilistic structural analysis. The solution method is incrementally updated Lagrangian. It is illustrated by applying it to thin composite cylindrical shell subjected to dynamic loads. Both deterministic and probabilistic buckling loads are evaluated to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. A universal plot is obtained for the specific shell that can be used to approximate buckling loads for different load rates and different probability levels. Results from this plot show that the faster the rate, the higher the buckling load and the shorter the time. The lower the probability, the lower is the buckling load for a specific time. Probabilistic sensitivity results show that the ply thickness, the fiber volume ratio and the fiber longitudinal modulus, dynamic load and loading rate are the dominant uncertainties in that order.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Use of Remote Sensing and Dust Modelling to Evaluate Ecosystem Phenology and Pollen Dispersal

The impact of pollen release and downwind concentrations can be evaluated utilizing remote sensing. Previous NASA studies have addressed airborne dust prediction systems PHAiRS (Public Health Applications in Remote Sensing) which have determined that pollen forecasts and simulations are possible. By adapting the deterministic dust model (as an in-line system with the National Weather Service operational forecast model) used in PHAiRS to simulate downwind dispersal of pollen, initializing the model with pollen source regions from MODIS, assessing the results a rapid prototype concept can be produced. We will present the results of our effort to develop a deterministic model for predicting and simulating pollen emission and downwind concentration to study details or phenology and meteorology and their dependencies, and the promise of a credible real time forecast system to support public health and agricultural science and service. Previous studies have been done with PHAiRS research, the use of NASA data, the dust model and the PHAiRS potential to improve public health and environmental services long into the future.

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗

NASA NTRS2009

A Mixed Integer Linear Program for Airport Departure Scheduling

Aircraft departing from an airport are subject to numerous constraints while scheduling departure times. These constraints include wake-separation constraints for successive departures, miles-in-trail separation for aircraft bound for the same departure fixes, and time-window or prioritization constraints for individual flights. Besides these, emissions as well as increased fuel consumption due to inefficient scheduling need to be included. Addressing all the above constraints in a single framework while allowing for resequencing of the aircraft using runway queues is critical to the implementation of the Next Generation Air Transport System (NextGen) concepts. Prior work on airport departure scheduling has addressed some of the above. However, existing methods use pre-determined runway queues, and schedule aircraft from these departure queues. The source of such pre-determined queues is not explicit, and could potentially be a subjective controller input. Determining runway queues and scheduling within the same framework would potentially result in better scheduling. This paper presents a mixed integer linear program (MILP) for the departure-scheduling problem. The program takes as input the incoming sequence of aircraft for departure from a runway, along with their earliest departure times and an optional prioritization scheme based on time-window of departure for each aircraft. The program then assigns these aircraft to the available departure queues and schedules departure times, explicitly considering wake separation and departure fix restrictions to minimize total delay for all aircraft. The approach is generalized and can be used in a variety of situations, and allows for aircraft prioritization based on operational as well as environmental considerations. We present the MILP in the paper, along with benefits over the first-come-first-serve (FCFS) scheme for numerous randomized problems based on real-world settings. The MILP results in substantially reduced delays as compared to FCFS, and the magnitude of the savings depends on the queue and departure fix structure. The MILP assumes deterministic aircraft arrival times at the runway queues. However, due to taxi time uncertainty, aircraft might arrive either earlier or later than these deterministic times. Thus, to incorporate this uncertainty, we present a method for using the MILP with "overlap discounted rolling planning horizon". The approach is based on valuing near-term decision results more than future ones. We develop a model of taxitime uncertainty based on real-world data, and then compare the baseline FCFS delays with delays using the above MILP in a simple rolling-horizon method and in the overlap discounted scheme.

Gupta, Gautam↗

NASA NTRS2009

Comparison of Transport Codes, HZETRN, HETC and FLUKA, Using 1977 GCR Solar Minimum Spectra

The HZETRN deterministic radiation transport code is one of several tools developed to analyze the effects of harmful galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) on mission planning, astronaut shielding and instrumentation. This paper is a comparison study involving the two Monte Carlo transport codes, HETC-HEDS and FLUKA, and the deterministic transport code, HZETRN. Each code is used to transport ions from the 1977 solar minimum GCR spectrum impinging upon a 20 g/cm2 Aluminum slab followed by a 30 g/cm2 water slab. This research is part of a systematic effort of verification and validation to quantify the accuracy of HZETRN and determine areas where it can be improved. Comparisons of dose and dose equivalent values at various depths in the water slab are presented in this report. This is followed by a comparison of the proton fluxes, and the forward, backward and total neutron fluxes at various depths in the water slab. Comparisons of the secondary light ion 2H, 3H, 3He and 4He fluxes are also examined.

Heinbockel, John H.↗

NASA NTRS2007

POD Model Reconstruction for Gray-Box Fault Detection

Proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is the mathematical basis of a method of constructing low-order mathematical models for the "gray-box" fault-detection algorithm that is a component of a diagnostic system known as beacon-based exception analysis for multi-missions (BEAM). POD has been successfully applied in reducing computational complexity by generating simple models that can be used for control and simulation for complex systems such as fluid flows. In the present application to BEAM, POD brings the same benefits to automated diagnosis. BEAM is a method of real-time or offline, automated diagnosis of a complex dynamic system.The gray-box approach makes it possible to utilize incomplete or approximate knowledge of the dynamics of the system that one seeks to diagnose. In the gray-box approach, a deterministic model of the system is used to filter a time series of system sensor data to remove the deterministic components of the time series from further examination. What is left after the filtering operation is a time series of residual quantities that represent the unknown (or at least unmodeled) aspects of the behavior of the system. Stochastic modeling techniques are then applied to the residual time series. The procedure for detecting abnormal behavior of the system then becomes one of looking for statistical differences between the residual time series and the predictions of the stochastic model.

Park, Han↗

NASA NTRS2008

Interpolating Fields of Carbon Monoxide Data Using a Hybrid Statistical-Physical Model

Atmospheric Carbon Monoxide (CO) is a pollutant gas of which the US congress has mandated regular monitoring, and satellite sensors can be used to retrieve regional concentrations of CO over several vertical layers. However, CO at cloudy locations cannot be observed and have to be estimated from the observed data set, resulting in an interpolation problem. The current state-of-the-art solution is to combine prior information, computed by a deterministic physical model, with observations. However, the deterministic model may introduce uncertainties that do not derive from the data. While sharing certain features with the physical model, this paper presents a Bayesian hierarchical model for interpolating CO on a 3-dimensional spatial grid, across time. To our knowledge such a model has not been considered before. The model is applied to a hypothetical air-quality monitoring scenario, and is compared to existing interpolation methods. The results provide motivation for the use of the statistical model for regional to local applications.

Arellano, A. A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Byzantine-fault tolerant self-stabilizing protocol for distributed clock synchronization systems

A rapid Byzantine self-stabilizing clock synchronization protocol that self-stabilizes from any state, tolerates bursts of transient failures, and deterministically converges within a linear convergence time with respect to the self-stabilization period. Upon self-stabilization, all good clocks proceed synchronously. The Byzantine self-stabilizing clock synchronization protocol does not rely on any assumptions about the initial state of the clocks. Furthermore, there is neither a central clock nor an externally generated pulse system. The protocol converges deterministically, is scalable, and self-stabilizes in a short amount of time. The convergence time is linear with respect to the self-stabilization period.

Malekpour, Mahyar R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Probabilistic Analysis of a Composite Crew Module

An approach for conducting reliability-based analysis (RBA) of a Composite Crew Module (CCM) is presented. The goal is to identify and quantify the benefits of probabilistic design methods for the CCM and future space vehicles. The coarse finite element model from a previous NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) project is used as the baseline deterministic analysis model to evaluate the performance of the CCM using a strength-based failure index. The first step in the probabilistic analysis process is the determination of the uncertainty distributions for key parameters in the model. Analytical data from water landing simulations are used to develop an uncertainty distribution, but such data were unavailable for other load cases. The uncertainty distributions for the other load scale factors and the strength allowables are generated based on assumed coefficients of variation. Probability of first-ply failure is estimated using three methods: the first order reliability method (FORM), Monte Carlo simulation, and conditional sampling. Results for the three methods were consistent. The reliability is shown to be driven by first ply failure in one region of the CCM at the high altitude abort load set. The final predicted probability of failure is on the order of 10-11 due to the conservative nature of the factors of safety on the deterministic loads.

FROM↗

NASA NTRS2011

Thoughts Without Content are Empty, Intuitions Without Concepts are Blind - Determinism and Contingency Revisited

Was the emergence of life a predictable outcome of chemical evolution on earth? Could evolution produce life very different from ours? These are one of the oldest questions in the field of the origin of life that not only have broad philosophical implications but also impact how we approach the problem from the methodological standpoint. Framing the issue in terms of the dichotomy between contingency and determinism is not a fortunate because these two terms in their conventional meaning are neither mutually exclusive nor jointly exhaustive. Determinism, represented in natural sciences by Newtonian physics, relies on the assumption that every event is causally determined by a chain of previous events. In the context of the origin of life it means that once the initial conditions on the early earth have been specified further evolution follows inevitably. Considering uncertainties about conditions on the prebiotic earth, many plausible sets of initial conditions can be defined, each followed by a separate deterministic trajectory. This conventional understanding of determinism does not admit contingency. Further, it has no implications for evaluating how many sets of initial conditions lead to the emergence of life. It appears that a better framing of the problem is as follows: given plausible sets of initial conditions on the early earth how probable and broadly spread are evolutionary trajectories that lead to life? Instead of undertaking an impossible task of specifying microscopic initial conditions for all components of the system one uses a reduced representation of this system and specify only a small set of essential macroscopic parameters, values (or ranges of values) of which can be identified, inferred or estimated from experiment, theory or historical record. The following evolutionary trajectories are still governed by laws of physics and chemistry but become probabilistic and "contingency" is admitted as variations in other variables in the system. A similar reasoning is common in other fields of science, for example in statistical mechanics. Some trajectories lead to life, perhaps in different forms, whereas others do not. Of our true interest is the ratio of these two outcomes. The issue of determinism does not directly enter the picture. The debate about the likelihood of the emergence of life is quite old. One view holds that the origin of life is an event governed by chance, and the result of so many random events (contingencies) is unpredictable. This view was eloquently expressed by Monod. In his book "Chance or Necessity" he argued that life was a product of "nature's roulette." In an alternative view, expressed in particular by deDuve and Morowitz, the origin of life is considered a highly probable or even inevitable event (although its details need not be determined in every respect). Only in this sense the origin of life can be considered a "deterministic event".

Pohorille, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2011

Pre-Finishing of SiC for Optical Applications

13 Manufacturing & Prototyping A method is based on two unique processing steps that are both based on deterministic machining processes using a single-point diamond turning (SPDT) machine. In the first step, a high-MRR (material removal rate) process is used to machine the part within several microns of the final geometry. In the second step, a low-MRR process is used to machine the part to near optical quality using a novel ductile regime machining (DRM) process. DRM is a deterministic machining process associated with conditions under high hydrostatic pressures and very small depths of cut. Under such conditions, using high negative-rake angle cutting tools, the high-pressure region near the tool corresponds to a plastic zone, where even a brittle material will behave in a ductile manner. In the high-MRR processing step, the objective is to remove material with a sufficiently high rate such that the process is economical, without inducing large-scale subsurface damage. A laser-assisted machining approach was evaluated whereby a CO2 laser was focused in advance of the cutting tool. While CVD (chemical vapor deposition) SiC was successfully machined with this approach, the cutting forces were substantially higher than cuts at room temperature under the same machining conditions. During the experiments, the expansion of the part and the tool due to the heating was carefully accounted for. The higher cutting forces are most likely due to a small reduction in the shear strength of the material compared with a larger increase in friction forces due to the thermal softening effect. The key advantage is that the hybrid machine approach has the potential to achieve optical quality without the need for a separate optical finishing step. Also, this method is scalable, so one can easily progress from machining 50-mm-diameter samples to the 250-mm-diameter mirror that NASA desires.

Rozzi, Jay↗