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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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365 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Photon–photon chemical thermodynamics of frequency conversion processes in highly multimode systems

Abstract Frequency generation in highly multimode nonlinear optical systems is inherently a complex process, giving rise to an exceedingly convoluted landscape of evolution dynamics. While predicting and controlling the global conversion efficiencies in such nonlinear environments has long been considered impossible, here, we formally address this challenge even in scenarios involving a very large number of spatial modes. By utilizing fundamental notions from optical statistical mechanics, we develop a universal theoretical framework that effectively treats all frequency components as chemical reactants/products, capable of undergoing optical thermodynamic reactions facilitated by a variety of multi-wave mixing effects. These photon–photon reactions are governed by conservation laws that directly determine the optical temperatures and chemical potentials of the ensued chemical equilibria for each frequency species. In this context, we develop a comprehensive stoichiometric model and formally derive an expression that relates the chemical potentials to the optical stoichiometric coefficients, in a manner akin to atomic/molecular chemical reactions. This advancement unlocks new predictive capabilities that can facilitate the optimization of frequency generation in highly multimode photonic arrangements, surpassing the limitations of conventional schemes that rely exclusively on nonlinear optical dynamics. Notably, we identify a universal regime of Rayleigh–Jeans thermalization where an optical reaction at near-zero optical temperatures can promote the complete and entropically irreversible conversion of light to the fundamental mode at a target frequency. Our theoretical results are corroborated by numerical simulations in settings where second-harmonic generation, sum-frequency generation and four-wave mixing processes can manifest.

Optics↗
DOE OSTI2026

In situ studies on heavy ion irradiation and partial oxidation induced stacking faults and nanograins in tungsten nanolaminates

Understanding the microstructural evolution of tungsten (W) under extreme irradiation environments is critical for its application as a plasma-facing material in future fusion reactors. Heavy ion irradiation study offers expedited damage accumulation and thus allows irradiation tolerance property prediction in a short period of time. In this study we explore in situ Kr ion irradiation of W nanolaminates at 800 °C and uncover a complex interplay of irradiation-induced transformations, including the emergence of stacking faults, nanograin formation, and generation of thickened grain boundaries defined as GB regions with the thickness of up to 15 nm. High-resolution transmission electron microscopy studies reveal the formation of extended planar faults and a metastable hexagonal close-packed (hcp) phase within the body-centered cubic (bcc) matrix. These structural transitions are facilitated by irradiation-induced shear. They are further stabilized by the presence of oxygen, which promotes stacking fault formation and vacancy trapping. Elevated temperatures enhance defect mobility, enabling dynamic recrystallization into ultrafine grains and the thickening of GBs due to defect absorption and impurity segregation. These findings unravel non-equilibrium phase transformation pathways in heavy ion irradiated W and highlight the critical role of impurity-mediated defect dynamics in governing its radiation tolerance properties.

Wazeer, Adil [Purdue University]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Open quantum system approach to inclusive jet production in heavy-ion collisions

We derive a factorization formula for inclusive jet production in heavy-ion collisions using the tools of Effective Field Theory (EFT). We show how physics at widely separated scales in this process can be systematically separated by matching to EFTs at successively lower virtualities. Owing to a strong scale separation, we recover a vacuum-like DGLAP evolution above the jet scale, while the additional low-energy scales induced by the medium effectively probe the internal structure of the jet. As a result, the cross section can be written as a series with an increasing number of subjets characterized by perturbative matching coefficients each of which is convolved with a distinct function. These functions encode broadening, medium-induced radiations as well as quantum interference such as the Landau-Pomeranchuk-Migdal effect and color coherence dynamics to all orders in perturbation theory. As a first application of this EFT framework, we investigate the case of an unresolved jet and show how the cross section can be factorized and fully separate the jet dynamics from the universal physics of the medium. To compare to the existing literature, we explicitly compute the medium jet function at next-to-leading order in the coupling and leading order in medium opacity.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Highly Ordered Eutectic Mesostructures via Template‐Directed Solidification within Thermally Engineered Templates

Template-directed self-assembly of solidifying eutectics results in emergence of unique microstructures due to diffusion constraints and thermal gradients imposed by the template. Here, the importance of selecting the template material based on its conductivity to control heat transfer between the template and the solidifying eutectic, and thus the thermal gradients near the solidification front, is demonstrated. Simulations elucidate the relationship between the thermal properties of the eutectic and template and the resultant microstructure. The overarching finding is that templates with low thermal conductivities are generally advantageous for forming highly organized microstructures. When electrochemically porosified silicon pillars (thermal conductivity < 0.3 Wm −1 K −1 ) are used as the template into which an AgCl-KCl eutectic is solidified, 99% of the unit cells in the solidified structure exhibit the same pattern. In contrast, when higher thermal conductivity crystalline silicon pillars (≈100 Wm −1 K −1 ) are utilized, the expected pattern is only present in 50% of the unit cells. The thermally engineered template results in mesostructures with tunable optical properties and reflectances nearly identical to the simulated reflectances of perfect structures, indicating highly ordered patterns are formed over large areas. This work highlights the importance of controlling heat flows in template-directed self-assembly of eutectics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cobalt-free and high-rate stable 5V lithium nickel manganese oxide spinel cathodes enabled via surface oxygen vacancies

Spinel LiNi 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 offers both the high-rate, low-cost and safety advantages of LiFePO 4 and the high energy density of LiNiₓMnᵧCo₁₋ₓ₋ᵧO₂ and LiNiₓCoᵧAlzO₂ cathodes. However, the large operating voltage of these materials induces electrolyte oxidation, which degrades the interface and drives Mn dissolution. These reactions are further exacerbated at high rates due to temperature rise. In this study, we discover that ammoniacal treatment followed by annealing introduces a high density of oxygen vacancies in the “near-surface region” of LiNi 0.5 Mn 1.5 O 4 particles. These vacancies release electrons changing the oxidation state of Mn and suppressing its tendency to oxidize the electrolyte. Further, these vacancies enhance the electrode’s electronic conductivity (by ∼3-fold) and Li + diffusivity (by ∼2-fold) greatly improving charge transport, especially when operated at high rates. This results in an across-the-board improvement in self-discharge, specific capacity, energy density, rate capability, coulombic efficiency and cycling stability. When cycled at ∼200 mA g −1 , the capacity fade averaged over 3000 cycles for the surface vacancy-enriched material is ∼0.0167% per cycle compared to an order of magnitude higher fade rate for the baseline material. In conclusion, these findings reveal the potential of targeted surface oxygen vacancy doping to develop cobalt-free and high energy density cathodes that tolerate fast charging and deliver improved cycle life.

Cobalt-free cathodes↗
DOE OSTI2026

BISON analyses of TRISO fuel performance, its dependence on time-at-temperature, and possible implications for fuel design and qualification

The Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification (AGR) program has established a substantial technical foundation to support private entry into the U.S. high-temperature gas-cooled reactor market. However, emerging tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-fueled reactor applications include small modular reactors and microreactors with longer fuel residence times, which may expose fuels to higher time-at-temperature (TAT) values than were explored by the AGR program. Increased TAT could affect diffusive and thermomechanical behaviors such as Pd penetration, fission gas release, creep, and fission product transport. In this work, we applied multiscale best-estimate BISON fuel performance modeling to assess these effects within a representative design space based on the AGR-5/6/7 experiment and analyzed trends in predicted particle and compact fuel performance metrics with possible implications for near-term fuel design and qualification. BISON unambiguously predicted that TRISO fuel performance is sensitive to TAT. Increasing TAT was not predicted to increase the magnitude of failure-inducing tangential stresses in particle coating layers. Predictions obtained using a mechanistic model for Pd penetration indicated that penetration depth does not depend strongly on TAT. While these observations suggest that AGR testing provides a conservative upper bound for the steady-state operation of TRISO particles at lower powers and higher residence times, BISON also predicted that the release of poorly retained Ag would increase with TAT. Because these analyses applied models to extrapolate beyond the available experimental data, the authors recommend performing targeted experiments to confirm these predictions. Nevertheless, these predictions may provide reactor developers with enough confidence to make near-term design decisions associated with the potential fuel performance trade-offs of increasing TAT.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ion Transport and Crystal Rotation in Plastic Crystal Electrolytes Under Applied Electric Fields

Organic ionic plastic crystal electrolytes, containing a plastic crystal and lithium salt, offer a potential balance between mechanical and electrochemical properties for solid state lithium-ion battery electrolytes. These electrolytes contain multiple mobile ionic species (three or four), resulting in complex transport mechanisms which have not yet been established. Plastic crystals are defined by long-range positional order and short-range rotational disorder. It is therefore necessary to quantify changes in the local crystal structure of the electrolyte as current flows through it. Herein, we examine the electrochemical properties of pyrrolidinium-based plastic crystal electrolytes containing lithium salt and zwitterion additives, including measurements of current fraction and limiting current. We obtain species-specific insight into electrolyte transport using pulsed-field gradient nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and find that, while the zwitterion additive increases ionic conductivity, it decreases lithium diffusivity with respect to other ionic components. With operando spatiotemporally resolved wide-angle X-ray scattering we observe location-specific crystal rotations due to the passage of ionic current. In conclusion, we posit that reducing energy dissipation due to rotation is essential for using plastic crystal electrolytes in practical applications.

Yap, Kyra M. K. [University of California, Berkele↗
DOE OSTI2026

In situ electric field X-ray total scattering reveals composition-dependent electromechanical strain mechanisms in (1 − x )BiFe 2/8 Ti 3/8 Mg 3/8 O 3 – x PbTiO 3 ceramics

Ferroelectric materials find many applications in energy and aerospace industries. A major challenge for ferroelectric materials is maintaining their properties at elevated temperatures. The (1 − x )BiFe 2/8 Ti 3/8 Mg 3/8 O 3 – x PbTiO 3 (BFTM–xPT) ferroelectric solid solution is a promising candidate for high-temperature applications as it has a high piezoelectric response while also maintaining its ferroelectric phase until a high Curie temperature (T C ) of 650 °C. In this work, we investigate the piezoelectric mechanism in BFTM–xPT, a novel high-T C ferroelectric ceramic. To elucidate the origin of its enhanced piezoelectric performance, relative to other piezoceramics of similar T C , in situ electric field X-ray total scattering experiments were performed. Total scattering combines Bragg scattering (diffraction) and diffuse scattering (pair distribution function), providing insight on various length scales. With information spanning different length scales, extrinsic contributions (i.e., domain wall motion and interphase boundary motion) can be separated from intrinsic contributions (i.e., piezoelectric lattice strain). We show that, for compositions within the morphotropic phase boundary (MPB, x = 0.325), the piezoelectric response is dominated by intrinsic piezoelectric lattice strain, whereas outside the MPB (x = 0.375) the major component of the piezoelectric response is from extrinsic mechanisms including an electric-field-induced phase transition and tetragonal domain wall motion. This article reveals that the origin of piezoelectric response in BFTM–xPT is composition-dependent and shows that high-performance materials may also be located outside the MPB. These findings can help guide material design to optimize properties for specific applications.

Richtik, Brooke N. [University of Calgary, AB (Can↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anticipating Optical Availability in Hybrid RF/FSO Links Using RF Beacons and Deep Learning

Radiofrequency (RF) communications offer reliable but low data rates and energy-inefficient satellite links, while free-space optical (FSO) promises high bandwidth but struggles with disturbances imposed by atmospheric effects. A hybrid RF/FSO architecture aims to achieve optimal reliability along with high data rates for space communications. Accurate prediction of dynamic ground-to-satellite FSO link availability is critical for routing decisions in low-earth orbit constellations. In this paper, we propose a system leveraging ubiquitous RF links to proactively forecast FSO link degradation prior to signal drops below threshold levels. This enables pre-calculation of rerouting to maximally maintain high data rate FSO links throughout the duration of weather effects. We implement a supervised learning model to anticipate FSO attenuation based on the analysis of RF patterns. Through the simulation of a dense lower earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in a simulated satellite network, highlighting the balance between predictive accuracy and prediction duration. An emulated cloud attenuation model is proposed to provide insight into the temporal profiles of RF signals and their correlation to FSO channel dynamics. Our investigation sheds light on the trade-offs between prediction horizon and accuracy arising from RF beacon numbers and proximity.

FSO availability↗
DOE OSTI2026

Terahertz‐Nanoscale Visualization of the Microscopic Spin‐Charge Architecture of Colossal Magnetoresistive Switching

Resolving sub-10 nm spin switching and the associated terahertz (THz) electrodynamics during the colossal magnetoresistance (CMR) transition is a definitive frontier in reaching the fundamental spatial, temporal, and energy-dissipation limits of spin-electronics. Yet, simultaneous control of high magnetic field, cryogenic environment, and nanometer resolution has remained an elusive benchmark for THz nanoscopy, leaving the local THz dynamics of these transitions largely unexplored. Here, we overcome these limitations by utilizing a custom-built cryogenic magneto-THz scattering-type scanning near-field optical microscopy (cm-THz-sSNOM) to resolve the near-field THz spectroscopic evolution of the magnetic field-driven CMR transition in a manganite single crystal. Our measurements provide a nanoscale visualization of the THz conductivity, capturing the moment that magnetic-field-induced spin switching triggers the transition from an antiferromagnetic insulator to a ferromagnetic metal. An ellipsoidal near-field model reveals a multi-scale transition initiated by 1–2 nm isolated spin-flip sites at low magnetic fields, which coalesce into ∼15 nm conducting regions as the threshold field is approached. These results provide an nano-THz view of CMR switching, establishing an analysis framework for mapping spin–charge–lattice–orbit–coupled dynamics at spatial scales that transcend the nominal sSNOM resolution.

Haeuser, Samuel [Iowa State University, Ames, IA (↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermally Stable Co@C3N4 Single-Atom Catalysts for CO Oxidation: Atomic-Level Insights into Structure and Activity

Single Co atoms supported on C3N4 (Co@C3N4) have demonstrated high activity and selectivity in photocatalysis. However, the investigation of structure–function relationships and reaction mechanisms under photocatalytic conditions is very challenging due to the complex conditions of light absorption, charge transfer, and catalysis. In this study, we employed thermal CO oxidation as a prototypical probe reaction to benchmark the intrinsic catalytic performance and track the active-site evolution of Co@C3N4. Single Co atoms were identified and shown to be the catalytically active sites for CO oxidation based on control experiments and isotope-labeling experiments. The Co sites remained atomically dispersed before, during, and after the reaction with temperatures up to 400 °C, as established by in situ X-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) combined with density functional theory (DFT), FDMNES simulations, and dynamic-time-warping (DTW)-assisted X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) matching. Together with theoretical calculations, the integrated analysis reveals a stable coordination environment under reaction conditions, which correlates with sustained activity, establishing Co@C3N4 single-atom catalysts as thermally stable CO oxidation catalysts. Beyond these findings, the current study provides a workflow for unambiguously assigning active sites in Co@C3N4 for thermal CO oxidation. This workflow will aid the understanding of their behavior in photocatalysis in the future, where light-driven dynamics obscure direct structure–function links. Notably, this study provides fundamental insights for the rational design of robust single-atom catalysts and a foundation for the broader application of Co@C3N4 catalysts in oxidation reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Divergent carbon use efficiency-growth rate tradeoff in popular biological growth models

Carbon use efficiency (CUE) is an important trait emerging from processes regulating biological growth. CUE can be computed either based on the growth of structural biomass or total biomass divided by substrate uptake rate. Nonequilibrium thermodynamics and observations suggest that, for an exponentially growing population of cells, structural biomass CUE should first increase, then peak, and finally decrease with specific growth rate; meanwhile, total biomass CUE increases asymptotically with specific growth rate. We compared predictions from six popular models that are often used for plant and microbial growth in existing ecosystem models. We found that, for an exponentially growing population of biological cells, (1) the source-driven Pirt and Compromise models predict that structural biomass CUE increase asymptotically with growth rate; (2) the apparent sink-driven modified Droop model predicts that structural biomass CUE decreases with growth rate; and (3) the sink-driven variable internal storage model and two dynamic energy budget models predict that structural biomass CUE first increases, then peaks, and finally decreases with growth rate. Moreover, the modified Droop model predicts that total biomass CUE is constant with growth rate, while all other five models predict that total biomass CUE increases with growth rate asymptotically. For non-exponential biological growth, we show that there is no static relationship between total biomass CUE or structural biomass CUE with respect to either growth rate or temperature. Therefore, we contend that biological growth models should explicitly represent interactions between substrate acquisition, substate transformation, and maintenance respiration to better capture observed CUE dynamics, and the sink-driven model should be preferred for general ecosystem biogeochemistry modeling.

Tang, Jinyun [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2026

Systematic Construction of Time-Dependent Hamiltonians for Microwave-Driven Josephson Circuits

Time-dependent electromagnetic drives are fundamental for controlling complex quantum systems, including superconducting Josephson circuits. In these devices, accurate time-dependent Hamiltonian models are imperative for predicting their dynamics and designing high-fidelity quantum operations. Existing numerical methods, such as black-box quantization (BBQ) and energy-participation ratio (EPR), excel at modeling the static Hamiltonians of Josephson circuits. However, these techniques do not fully capture the behavior of driven circuits stimulated by external microwave drives, nor do they include a generalized approach to account for the inevitable noise and dissipation that enter through microwave ports. Here, we introduce numerical techniques that leverage classical microwave simulations, efficiently executable in finite-element solvers, to obtain the time-dependent Hamiltonian of microwave-driven superconducting circuits with arbitrary geometries under charge, flux, or mixed electromagnetic modulation. Importantly, our techniques do not rely on a lumped-element description of the superconducting circuit, in contrast to previous approaches to tackling this problem. We demonstrate the versatility of our approach by characterizing the driven properties of realistic circuit devices in complex electromagnetic environments, including coherent dynamics due to charge and flux modulation, as well as drive-induced relaxation and dephasing. Our techniques offer a powerful toolbox for optimizing circuit designs and advancing practical applications in superconducting quantum computing.

Lu, Yao [Yale U.; Yale U. (main); Fermilab] (ORCID↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optical transparency of LiF (100) shock compressed to ∼360 GPa

High-purity [100] lithium fluoride (LiF) is the most widely used optical window in dynamic compression experiments due to its wide bandgap and well-characterized mechanical response. Recent plate-impact experiments established the [100] LiF Hugoniot to ∼230 GPa and demonstrated shock-induced melting onset at 182 GPa with complete melting by 195 GPa; theoretical models predict LiF optical transparency to nearly 900 GPa. To experimentally examine the optical transparency of [100] LiF at higher pressures and in the liquid state, laser-driven shock experiments were performed at peak stresses ranging from 223 to 363 GPa. Optical response was examined by measuring the particle velocity histories at the Kapton/LiF interface using laser interferometry at 532 and 1550 nm wavelengths; in-material particle velocities were obtained using established refractive-index corrections. Continuous photonic Doppler velocimetry fringes were observed across the entire stress range, demonstrating that LiF remains transparent to 1550 nm light throughout the multi-megabar regime investigated. At 532 nm, fringe visibility depended on the reflector coating: aluminum mirrors provided signals to ∼235 GPa, while gold mirrors extended this limit to 270.5 GPa, indicating that the shorter-wavelength response is likely sensitive to experimental configuration rather than to the loss of LiF transparency. Continued optical transparency to at least 360 GPa indicates that shock-melted LiF does not display bandgap closure over the stress range explored. Furthermore, these results provide direct experimental constraints on the high-pressure optical response and establish LiF (100) as a robust optical window material for laser-driven dynamic compression experiments approaching 400 GPa.

Renganathan, P. [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Method of tuning physical properties of thermosets

Polymerization-induced phase separation enables fine control over thermoset network morphologies, yielding heterogeneous structures with domain sizes tunable over 1-100 nm. However, the controlled chain-growth polymerization techniques exclusively employed to regulate morphology at these length scales are unsuitable for most thermoset materials typically formed through step-growth mechanisms. By employing binary mixtures in place of the classic constituents of phase-separating thermosets—resin, curing agent, and secondary polymer—facile tunability over morphology can be achieved through a single compositional parameter. Indeed, this method yields morphologies spanning nano-scale to macro-scale, controlled by the relative reactivities and thermodynamic compatibility of the network components. Due to the connection between chain dynamics and microstructure in these materials, the tunable morphology enables exquisite control over glass transition and other physical and mechanical properties.

Jones, Brad Howard↗
DOE OSTI2026

Elimination of detrimental grain boundary segregation in garnets

Garnet Li 7 La 3 Zr 2 O 12 electrolyte is considered a key enabler of solid-state batteries with Li metal electrodes, but the grain boundaries impair its performance. To date, the understanding of grain boundary structures and its impact on performance remains elusive. Here, we show that element segregation at Li 7 La 3 Zr 2 O 12 grain boundaries critically governs Li transport and nucleation. During conventional sintering, Al, Ta, and La segregate at grain boundaries, locally depleting Li and creating space-charge layers that lower total ionic conductivity. Simultaneously, this segregation leads to higher electronic conductivity along grain boundaries, which promotes Li nucleation at grain boundary edges with increased risk of dendrite formation. The underlying mechanism of segregation is governed by both thermodynamic driving forces and diffusion kinetics. Building on this understanding, we develop a strategy to achieve segregation-free grain boundaries through a rapid sintering protocol that utilizes the onset of solid-state softening. This approach yields transparent, polycrystalline Li 7 La 3 Zr 2 O 12 with negligible grain boundary impedance and enhanced dendrite tolerance. By elucidating the structural origins and electrochemical consequences of grain boundary segregation, this work provides a guidance for the rational optimization of solid electrolytes.

Energy - Storage↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-Fidelity Building Emulator for Integrated Comfort and Energy Analysis using EnergyPlus and Radiance

The growing need for smart, energy-efficient, and occupant-centric buildings has created a demand for advanced control systems that can optimize building operations to balance energy savings, demand flexibility, and comfort. However, current building energy simulation tools, such as EnergyPlus, have limitations that hinder the development and evaluation of these complex control systems. To address this challenge, we introduce a high-fidelity building emulator that dynamically couples EnergyPlus with Radiance for enhanced daylight modeling. The introduced workflow allows researchers and practitioners to rapidly develop and evaluate innovative control solutions. An example study looking at a south-facing office zone revealed up to 67% deviation in predicted light levels, which can significantly impact building assessment.

Yu, Tammie↗
DOE OSTI2026

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗