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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Knowledge-guided graph machine learning for spatially distributed prediction of daily discharge and nitrogen export dynamics

Spatially distributed prediction of streamflow and nitrogen export dynamics is essential for precision management of agricultural watersheds. While temporal deep learning models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) have shown strong performance at basin scales, their ability to generalize spatially is limited by insufficient representation of spatial dependencies and flow paths, particularly under data-scarce conditions. To address this gap, we propose HydroGraphNet, a knowledge-guided graph machine learning framework that integrates process-based knowledge and explicit spatial learning into temporal modeling. This framework incorporates directed graph topology to encode watershed connectivity and upstream inflows, with mass balance constraints to improve physical consistency. To enhance generalization in sparsely monitored regions, HydroGraphNet is pretrained on synthetic data generated by the SWAT+ (Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus) model. We evaluated HydroGraphNet in the Upper Sangamon River Basin (44 HUC-12 subwatersheds, 2001–2020) against two LSTM baselines: a lumped basin-level model and a distributed variant. When benchmarked on SWAT+ simulations in pretraining, HydroGraphNet improved test NSEs by 8.9% (discharge) and 13.7% (NO₃–N load) in temporal extrapolation, and by 27.1% and 34.7% in spatial extrapolation, relative to the Lumped LSTM baseline. After fine-tuning with USGS monitoring data, the model achieved mean test NSE (KGE) scores of 0.768 (0.861) for discharge and 0.626 (0.664) for NO₃–N load, substantially outperforming baselines. Attribution analysis further highlighted the importance of upstream inflow representation and graph-based spatial learning in capturing cross-subwatershed dependencies. The model also reproduced seasonal hydrological and biogeochemical patterns consistent with known processes, demonstrating its robustness and process fidelity for spatially distributed prediction. Altogether, HydroGraphNet advances the integration of physical knowledge and spatially explicit learning in hydrological modeling, offering a generalizable framework for distributed modeling to support spatially targeted water quality management in data-scarce watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Empirical Model For Intrinsic Alignments: Insights From Cosmological Simulations

We extend current models of the halo occupation distribution (HOD) to include a flexible, empirical framework for the forward modeling of the intrinsic alignment (IA) of galaxies. A primary goal of this work is to produce mock galaxy catalogs for the purpose of validating existing models and methods for the mitigation of IA in weak lensing measurements. This technique can also be used to produce new, simulation-based predictions for IA and galaxy clustering. Our model is probabilistically formulated, and rests upon the assumption that the orientations of galaxies exhibit a correlation with their host dark matter (sub)halo orientation or with their position within the halo. We examine the necessary components and phenomenology of such a model by considering the alignments between (sub)halos in a cosmological dark matter only simulation. We then validate this model for a realistic galaxy population in a set of simulations in the Illustris-TNG suite. We create an HOD mock with Illustris-like correlations using our method, constraining the associated IA model parameters, with the $\mathcal{X}$$^{2}_{dof}$ between our model’s correlations and those of Illustris matching as closely as 1.4 and 1.1 for orientation–position and orientation–orientation correlation functions, respectively. By modeling the misalignment between galaxies and their host halo, we show that the 3-dimensional two-point position and orientation correlation functions of simulated (sub)halos and galaxies can be accurately reproduced from quasi-linear scales down to 0.1 $\mathcal{h}$ –1 Mpc. We also find evidence for environmental influence on IA within a halo. Our publicly-available software provides a key component enabling efficient determination of Bayesian posteriors on IA model parameters using observational measurements of galaxy-orientation correlation functions in the highly nonlinear regime.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Optimized Parameterization of Sub‐Grid Scale Advection for Convection Permitting Models

Convection‐permitting models (CPMs) explicitly resolve deep convection yet under‐resolve the organized lateral exchanges among drafts and their environment that control entrainment/detrainment, precipitation efficiency, and mesoscale structure. In this work, we introduce the Optimized Advection Scheme (OAS), which introduces a small rotation of the Cartesian frame of reference for the horizontal winds relative to other variables used in advection that induces cross‐gradient transport to mimic under‐resolved convective mixing. The rotation angle is selected to minimize the Kullback–Leibler divergence between the simulated and satellite observed precipitation intensity distributions, yielding a physically consistent perturbation that is computationally inexpensive and portable. Optimized Advection Scheme is implemented in WRF and evaluated over Amazon (April 2014). It shifts precipitation–precipitable‐water joint distributions toward lighter rain, reduces overly intense rates, and improves mesoscale convective system (MCS) lifetime and propagation. Mechanistically, the added cross‐gradient transport promotes convective detrainment and environmental mixing, which cools and moistens the mid‐troposphere, weakens downward momentum transport, alleviates excessive downwelling shortwave biases, and warms the surface temperature. The optimized rotation angle yields comparable improvements at 4‐km and 1‐km grid spacing, demonstrating resolution‐independent benefits across the CPM gray zone. By targeting the dynamical root of under‐mixed convective circulations, rather than tuning model microphysics or closures, OAS delivers robust, scale‐aware improvements in precipitation statistics, cloud vertical structure, and characteristics of MCS (MCSs), offering a practical pathway to more reliable CPM simulations for weather and climate applications.

CPM↗
DOE OSTI2025

CityLearn v2: energy-flexible, resilient, occupant-centric, and carbon-aware management of grid-interactive communities

As more distributed energy resources become part of the demand-side infrastructure, quantifying their energy flexibility on a community scale is crucial. CityLearn v1 provided an environment for benchmarking control algorithms. However, there is no standardized environment utilizing realistic building-stock datasets for distributed energy resource control benchmarking without co-simulation or third-party frameworks. CityLearn v2 extends CityLearn v1 by providing a stand-alone simulation environment that leverages the End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock dataset to create grid-interactive communities for resilient, multi-agent, and objective control of distributed energy resources with dynamic occupant feedback. While the v1 environment used pre-simulated building thermal loads, the v2 environment uses data-driven thermal dynamics and eliminates the need for co-simulation with building energy performance software. This work details the v2 environment and provides application examples that use reinforcement learning control to manage battery energy storage system, vehicle-to-grid control, and thermal comfort during heat pump power modulation.

Nweye, Kingsley↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lens Modeling of STRIDES Strongly Lensed Quasars Using Neural Posterior Estimation

Strongly lensed quasars can be used to constrain cosmological parameters through time-delay cosmography. Models of the lens masses are a necessary component of this analysis. To enable time-delay cosmography from a sample of $\mathcal{O}(10^3)$ lenses, which will soon become available from surveys like the Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time and the Euclid Wide Survey, we require fast and standardizable modeling techniques. To address this need, we apply neural posterior estimation (NPE) for modeling galaxy-scale strongly lensed quasars from the Strong Lensing Insights into the Dark Energy Survey (STRIDES) sample. NPE brings two advantages: speed and the ability to implicitly marginalize over nuisance parameters. We extend this method by employing sequential NPE to increase precision of mass model posteriors. We then fold individual lens models into a hierarchical Bayesian inference to recover the population distribution of lens mass parameters, accounting for out-of-distribution shift. After verifying our method using simulated analogs of the STRIDES lens sample, we apply our method to 14 Hubble Space Telescope single-filter observations. We find the population mean of the power-law elliptical mass distribution slope, γ lens , to be $\mathcal{M}_γ$ lens = 2.13 ± 0.06. Our result represents the first population-level constraint for these systems. This population-level inference from fully automated modeling is an important stepping stone toward cosmological inference with large samples of strongly lensed quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-Fidelity Simulation of the Light-to-Dense Stratification Transient in the HiRJET Facility

Density stratification in a large enclosure is a crucial phenomenon to heat transfer and sustainable passive heat removal of a sodium fast reactor during reactivity transients. However, engineering turbulence models were identified to have unsatisfactory performance in predicting propagation of a stratified front. Yet, the scarcity of high-resolution data for stratification hampers the development of models. To explor e applications of leveraging direct numerical simulation (DNS) data to support turbulence model development, this work conducted DNS using NekRS to study a long stratification transient in the High-Resolution Jet (HiRJET) experimental facility. Here, this work considers an experiment run where light fluid is injected into a tank containing a denser fluid with a relative density difference of 1.5%. Formation of the stratified layer is identified as impingement of the buoyant jet promoting mixing of the two fluids. Based on the transient statistics, transport of the concentration can be characterized by regions with dominating effects of turbulent mixing, buoyant dissipation, and molecular diffusion, respectively, as moving away from the elevation of jet impingement. Concentration near the stratified front also exhibits oscillation at Brunt-Väisälä frequency. Preliminary validation of the simulation showed encouraging agreement of the concentration distribution with the reference experiment.

buoyant mixing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Digital Grid Twin–Direct Communication Scheme Test Bed for Assessing Relay-to-Relay Radio Antenna and Optical Fiber Performance and Misoperations

This study introduces a novel “Digital Grid Twin–Direct Communication Scheme” test bed. This advanced platform evaluates point-to-point communication between transmitter and receiver relays with optical fiber and radio omnidirectional antenna systems, implemented at the Advanced Protection lab in the Grid Research Innovation and Development Center at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The increased diversity of energy sources has led to more protective relay misoperations. In North America, microgrid protection schemes now use point-to-point communication along distribution lines between relays to implement advanced logic in nonradial grids that include both high- and low-inertia generators. This trend challenges utilities to minimize misoperations while ensuring rapid fault clearance and accurate selectivity coordination between primary and backup relays. This study assesses relay-to-relay communication schemes by introducing an advanced testing platform based on a digital grid twin protection test bed using a synchronized time source system. The platform evaluates the communication system using radio antennas or optical fiber links by integrating protective relays that operate breakers within the digital twin and record relay events and communication signals. In the experiments, transmitter and receiver relays were configured with inverse time overcurrent and breaker trip detection logic to assess the total time of the communication protection schemes based on the sum of the relay protection element operating time, radio latency, propagation delay, baud rate delay, and relay processing time. These delays were derived from recorded relay events and communication signals from the interface of a real-time simulator set as a digital grid twin. The test bed successfully simulated various electrical faults along a distribution line while ensuring effective and reliable point-to-point communication between transmitter and receiver relays. The radio antenna communication system exhibited latency because of the radio. This latency depends on the baud rate setting and type of radio application; in general, the higher the baud rate, the lower the radio latency. The measured radio latency (for Mirrored Bits with an encryption card at 9,600 bps) was about 9–10 ms. Additionally, calculated propagation delay per mile for radio antennas and optical fiber was 5.36 µs/mi and 8.04 µs/mi, respectively. Optical fiber communication did not demonstrate radio latency. Instead, the protection element operating time depends mainly on the protection logic function set in the relay, and the relay processing time depends on the processing rate of the relay in samples per power system cycle.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

New developments and verification of fusion blanket simulation capabilities in the MOOSE framework

Multiphysics modeling capabilities have a crucial role to play in the accelerated deployment of fusion energy. To that end, we developed new multiphysics fusion blanket simulation capabilities in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). Firstly, we expanded on the existing capabilities of the previously published work, by coupling 3D tritium transport modeling capabilities using the Tritium Migration Analysis Program, version 8 (TMAP8) to an existing tool including thermal hydraulics, fully three-dimensional (3D) heat transfer, and loosely coupled neutronics analysis. Secondly, we performed a thorough verification of the new capabilities and increased testing code coverage to meet MOOSE’s software quality standards. The MOOSE framework follows a strict software quality assurance plan to be Nuclear Quality Assurance, Level 1 compliant. The new multiphysics fusion blanket simulation capabilities are now held to the same standard. Thirdly, to demonstrate MOOSE’s new fusion blanket modeling capabilities, we performed a fully integrated, multiphysics simulation of a 3D solid ceramic breeder blanket design. This proof-of-concept simulation provides the temperature and tritium distribution across the blanket. In conclusion, the combined efforts towards software quality and the development of multiphysics coupling capabilities provide an effective and reliable framework for modeling solid ceramic fusion blankets using MOOSE.

modeling and simulation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying the Effect of Pore‐Size Dependent Wettability on Relative Permeabilities Using Lattice Boltzmann Simulation

Relative permeability is a crucial two-phase property in porous media that can be significantly impacted by wettability conditions. While traditional research has predominantly examined homogeneous wettability, this work explores the less studied pore-size dependent (PSD) wettability, featured by a pore-size dependent wettability distribution. Leveraging high-fidelity Lattice Boltzmann simulations on CT-scanned porous samples, we demonstrate how PSD wettability would impact relative permeability at the pore scale. Our findings reveal that the deviation of relative permeability from the homogeneous wettabilitity induced by PSD wettability can be 5%–20%. The deviation of relative permeability curves increases as the spanning range of the contact angle increases. We also find that this impact is less pronounced as the capillary number increases. By adopting a pore-size-dependent contact angle relationship, our approach provides a more accurate and nuanced understanding of how PSD wettability would impact two-phase flow. These findings discovered at the pore scale may also provide valuable insights on relative permeability at the core to reservoir scales.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

S-QGPU: Shared quantum gate processing unit for distributed quantum computing

We propose a distributed quantum computing (DQC) architecture in which individual small-sized quantum computers are connected to a shared quantum gate processing unit (S-QGPU). The S-QGPU comprises a collection of hybrid two-qubit gate modules for remote gate operations. In contrast to conventional DQC systems, where each quantum computer is equipped with dedicated communication qubits, S-QGPU effectively pools the resources (e.g., the communication qubits) together for remote gate operations, and, thus, significantly reduces the cost of not only the local quantum computers but also the overall distributed system. Our preliminary analysis and simulation show that S-QGPU's shared resources for remote gate operations enable efficient resource utilization. When not all computing qubits (also called data qubits) in the system require simultaneous remote gate operations, S-QGPU-based DQC architecture demands fewer communication qubits, further decreasing the overall cost. Alternatively, with the same number of communication qubits, it can support a larger number of simultaneous remote gate operations more efficiently, especially when these operations occur in a burst mode.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intelligently Partitioned Phasor-EMT Hybrid Simulations of Large-Scale, High-IBR Power Systems

As the penetration level of power electronics-interfaced renewables such as photovoltaics (PV) and wind has surged in modern electric grids, new operational risks caused by the dynamics of those inverter-based resources (IBRs) are emerging in parallel. Lessons learned from various grid events include that the impact of IBRs on system-level grid stability will become prominent along with the increase of renewables and that the short-timescale dynamic impacts of IBRs on grid stability are not fully captured by current commercial dynamic simulation tools [1] [2]. For example, IBRs can be controlled to mitigate those destabilizing interactions, but conventional phasor-domain tools (e.g. PSS/E, PSLF) often cannot capture that; likewise, the existing electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation tools (e.g. PSCAD, EMTP) can simulate detailed IBR controls, but for large power systems with many IBRs, slow simulation speeds severely impede the ability to study dynamic events [3] [4]. Massively paralleling simulations using high-performance computing (HPC) can help address this, especially now that cloud-based HPC capability is widely available, but today s EMT tools are not HPC-compatible, and parallelization of dynamic simulation solvers is not trivial because each region can dynamically affect the others. Thus, dynamic simulation of grids with very large numbers of IBRs potentially poses a barrier to the ongoing energy transition.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Geospatial Capabilities to Couple Hazard and Social Vulnerability Data in Water Distribution Criticality Analysis

A resilience analysis of a water distribution system is greatly enhanced by the integration of up-to-date geospatial data describing the water system, hazards, and surrounding community. The Water Network Tool for Resilience (WNTR), an open-source Python package designed to simulate and analyze the resilience of water distribution systems, was recently updated to incorporate geographic information system (GIS) data into the resilience analysis. This paper describes the GIS capabilities and includes a case study using the drinking water distribution system model for a large city in Pennsylvania. The case study focuses on potential pipe damage from landslides and on pipes that are particularly difficult to repair. The analysis couples data on hazards, social vulnerability, and the location of emergency services to identify and prioritize high-impact critical infrastructure for mitigation. Results demonstrate that pipes can be prioritized for mitigation based on water shortage and vulnerable populations that are affected. In conclusion, the methods can be adopted for general use and are available as part of the WNTR software.

GIS, landslide↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning-based bias-corrected future projections of ozone concentrations from a chemistry-climate model

Reliable projection of future near-surface ozone is crucial for air quality management and health risk assessment. However, potential biases in spatial distribution, magnitude and trends in ozone concentrations simulated by global chemistry-climate models limit their applicability in regional-scale evaluations. In this study, LightGBM, a machine learning (ML) algorithm is applied to correct biases in CESM2-simulated ozone concentrations over China, the United States and Europe and calibrate future ozone projections under two diverse Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios from 2020 to 2060. The ML-based correction significantly improves the spatial distribution and reduces the model bias by 40%–60%. It also reverses the potentially incorrect trend of ozone change under SSP1-2.6 in eastern China. When applying ML-based bias correction to CESM2 future projections, warm season mean ozone concentrations decrease across China, the United States, and Europe by –13.5, –17.9, and –13.7 µg/m³, respectively, between 2020 and 2060 in SSP1-2.6, while they increase by 9.4, 2.0, and 5.2 µg/m³ in SSP5-8.5. Decomposition analysis show that changes in anthropogenic emissions dominate future ozone changes in both scenarios, while strong climate penalty from ozone changes occurs in polluted eastern China and climate benefit is found in western China, the United States and Europe under SSP5-8.5. These findings demonstrate the value of combining ML with chemistry-climate models to produce more accurate air quality projections, thereby informing more effective and region-specific environmental protection strategies.

Chemistry Model↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ground-motions site and event specificity: Insights from assessing a suite of simulated ground motions in the San Francisco Bay Area

This article presents the results of a research that is part of a larger collaborative effort between the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, funded by the US Department of Energy Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security and Emergency Response. The main objective of this study is to assess a suite of near and far-field simulated ground motions obtained from 20 realizations of an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area, California USA, and inform the selection of rupture simulation parameters leading to strong motions. To this aim, comparisons are conducted with NGA-W2 and directivity ground-motion models and a selected population of records. An archetypal steel moment-resisting frame is utilized to assess infrastructure response distributions. The analyses carried out for each simulated event and subdomain with consistent properties in terms of shallow shear-wave velocity proved to be instrumental for better interpreting the differences between simulated motions and empirical models. The main reasons identified for variances between simulations and empirical relationships included (1) directivity effects fully captured by the simulations across the full breadth of rupture models; (2) site vicinity to ruptures that incorporate large-slip patches, particularly if these are in the forward-directivity direction; and (3) presence of geologic structures that can “trap” seismic waves and produce ground motions with large amplitude and long signal duration. The analyses carried out in this work provide a path for interpreting ground-motion site and event specificity obtained from a suite of physics-based simulations, differing only in the rupture model characterization, to inform the selection of simulation scenarios for site-specific engineering analyses under strong excitations. Evidence from this work points to the possibility that current hazard models may underestimate ground-motion intensities in areas where the combined effect of directivity and site conditions results in large ground-motion amplitudes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-GPU porting of a phase-change cascaded lattice Boltzmann method for three-dimensional pool boiling simulations

The Lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) has proven effective in simulating phase-change phenomena, such as melting, solidification, evaporation, and boiling. In this work, we develop a highly parallelized multi-GPU implementation of LBM for three-dimensional pool boiling simulations. The code is based on the OpenACC programming model, which enables the code to be deployed efficiently on multi-core CPUs, GPUs, and potentially other accelerators, without the need for architecture-specific rewrites. To support large-scale simulations, the domain is decomposed and distributed across multiple compute nodes using MPI. We demonstrate that the code exhibits excellent scaling properties, with ideal strong-scaling running with up to 256 GPUs on the MareNostrum5 cluster.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Complex Dynamics in Argyrodite Solid-State Ion Conductors

Argyrodites are a compositionally diverse family of materials that exhibit remarkable ion transport properties. While the average crystal structures of argyrodites have been extensively studied, ion transport in these materials is governed by a confluence of dynamic processes spanning the cation, anion, and polyanionic sublattices. This Perspective synthesizes recent advances in understanding the role of dynamics in structural behavior and ion transport properties. We examine the compositional and structural motifs that govern order−disorder transitions within the argyrodite family and further explore how ion hopping is facilitated by lattice dynamics, from long-range phonons to local rotational dynamics of polyanionic species. Through the lens of dynamics spanning multiple time and length scales, we establish guiding principles that govern transport phenomena and highlight avenues of future study for the argyrodite family of ion conductors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Testing of a Hybrid Machine Learning‐Physics Global Atmosphere Model

Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in capturing synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics, their performance across timescales and under out-of-distribution forcing, such as +3K or +4K uniform-warming forcings, and the sources of biases remain elusive, to establish the model's reliability for Earth science. Here, we design three sets of experiments targeting synoptic-scale phenomena, interannual variability, and out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings. We evaluate the Neural General Circulation Model (NeuralGCM), a hybrid model integrating a dynamical core with ML-based component, against observations and physics-based Earth system models (ESMs). At the synoptic scale, NeuralGCM captures the evolution and propagation of extratropical cyclones with performance comparable to ESMs. At the interannual scale, when forced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, NeuralGCM successfully reproduces associated teleconnection patterns but exhibits deficiencies in capturing nonlinear response. Under out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings, NeuralGCM simulates similar responses in global-average temperature and precipitation and reproduces large-scale tropospheric circulation features similar to those in ESMs. Notable weaknesses include overestimating the tracks and spatial extent of extratropical cyclones, biases in the teleconnected wave train triggered by tropical SST anomalies, and differences in upper-level warming and stratospheric circulation responses to SST warming compared to physics-based ESMs. The causes of these weaknesses were explored. Despite the noted weaknesses, NeuralGCM reproduces responses across experiments reasonably and performs comparably to ESMs. By integrating a dynamical core with ML, NeuralGCM shows potential for developing ML-based ESMs.

global warming↗