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NASA NTRS2017

Satellite-Based Drought Reporting on the Navajo Nation

The Navajo Nation (NN) is the largest reservation in the US, and faces challenges related to water management during long-term and widespread drought episodes. The Navajo Nation is a federally recognized tribe, which has boundaries within Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah. The Navajo Nation has a land area of over 70,000 square kilometers. The Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources (NNDWR) reports on drought and climatic conditions through the use of regional Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values and a network of in-situ rainfall, streamflow, and climate data. However, these data sources lack the spatial detail and consistent measurements needed to provide a coherent understanding of the drought regime within the Nation's regional boundaries. This project, as part of NASA's Western Water Applications Office (WWAO), improves upon the recently developed Drought Severity Assessment Tool (DSAT) to ingest satellite-based precipitation data to generate SPI values for specific administrative boundaries within the reservation. The tool aims to: (1) generate SPI values and summary statistics for regions of interest on various timescales, (2) to visualize SPI values within a web-map application, and (3) produce maps and comparative statistical outputs in the format required for annual drought reporting. The co-development of the DSAT with NN partners is integral to increasing the sustained use of Earth Observations for water management applications. This tool will provide data to support the NN in allocation of drought contingency dollars to the regions most adversely impacted by declines in water availability.

Satellite-based↗

NASA NTRS2017

Characterizing Agricultural Impacts of Recent Large-Scale US Droughts and Changing Technology and Management

Process-based agricultural models, applied in novel ways, can reproduce historical crop yield anomalies in the US, with median absolute deviation from observations of 6.7% at national-level and 11% at state-level. In seasons for which drought is the overriding factor, performance is further improved. Historical counterfactual scenarios for the 1988 and 2012 droughts show that changes in agricultural technologies and management have reduced system-level drought sensitivity in US maize production by about 25% in the intervening years. Finally, we estimate the economic costs of the two droughts in terms of insured and uninsured crop losses in each US county (for a total, adjusted for inflation, of $9 billion in 1988 and $21.6 billion in 2012). We compare these with cost estimates from the counterfactual scenarios and with crop indemnity data where available. Model based measures are capable of accurately reproducing the direct agro-economic losses associated with extreme drought and can be used to characterize and compare events that occurred under very different conditions. This work suggests new approaches to modeling, monitoring, forecasting, and evaluating drought impacts on agriculture, as well as evaluating technological changes to inform adaptation strategies for future climate change and extreme events.

Climate extremes; Drought impacts; Agriculture; Se↗

NASA NTRS2018

Exacerbation of the 2013-2016 Pan-Caribbean Drought by Anthropogenic Warming

The Caribbean islands are expected to see more frequent and severe droughts from reduced precipitation and increased evaporative demand due to anthropogenic climate change. Between 2013 and 2016 the region experienced a "Pan-Caribbean" drought that was the most widespread event since 1950, due in part to El Niño in 2015/2016, but it is unknown whether its severity was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. We examine the role of recent warming on this drought, using new high-resolution self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index datasets. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic warming has accounted for ~15-17% of drought severity, and ~7% of the Pan-Caribbean drought's spatial extent. These findings strongly suggest that climate model projected anthropogenic drying in the Caribbean is already underway, with major implications for more than 43 million people living in this region.

Anthropogenic warming↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Beginning and Ending Droughts in a Warmer World

Droughts are typically caused by below-normal precipitation and typically terminate in response to high precipitation. In many regions, soil moisture is projected to decrease in a warmer world. At the same time, changes in both mean and extreme precipitation are expected as the global mean temperature increases. How will these precipitation changes interact with soil moisture changes to affect drought onset and termination? In this study, we use climate model projections from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate how changes in mean precipitation affect soil moisture drought in the context of future warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America. We show that the same precipitation deficits at a global warming level of 2 degrees Celsius increase the likelihood of both moderate and severe drought compared to the pre-industrial baseline. Further, we evaluate the effectiveness of a given precipitation anomaly to terminate a soil moisture drought under different warming levels. These analyses offer a better understanding of the cascading impacts of, and relationships between, precipitation, precipitation extremes, and drought termination under warmer global temperatures.

Drought↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Beginning and Ending Droughts in a Warmer World

Drought↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hysteresis area at the canopy level during and after a drought event in the Central Amazon

Understanding forest water limitation during droughts within a warming climate is essential for accurate predictions of forest-climate interactions. In hyperdiverse ecosystems like the Amazon forest, the mechanisms shaping hysteresis patterns in transpiration relative to environmental factors are not well understood. From this perspective, we investigated these dynamics by conducting in situ leaf-level measurements throughout and after the 2015 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drought. Our findings indicate a substantial increase in the hysteresis area (H area ) among transpiration (E), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and stomatal conductance (g s ) at canopy level during the ENSO peak, attributed to both temporal lag and differences in magnitude between g s and VPD peaks. Specifically, the canopy species Pouteria anomala exhibited an increased H area , due to earlier maximum g s rates leading to a greater temporal lag with VPD compared to the post-drought period. Additionally, leaf water potential (ψ L ) and canopy temperature (T canopy ) showed larger H area during the ENSO peak compared to post-drought conditions across all studied species, suggesting that stomatal closure, particularly during the afternoon, acts to minimize water loss and may explain the counterclockwise hysteresis observed between ψ L and T canopy . Here, the pronounced H area during the drought points to a potential imbalance between water supply and demand, underlining the role of stomatal behavior of isohydric species in response to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Novel Cell-Type-Specific Drought-Responsive Proteins in Root Tips of Field-Grown Perennial Switchgrass

The root-tip region of plants, including the root cap, forms the most basal terminal of the root and exhibits a high degree of cellular complexity in terms of morphology, cytological function, and interaction with environmental cues in the soil. Cells in this region follow a developmental trajectory, transitioning from stem cells to meristematic cells, and ultimately to fully differentiated cell types. However, our understanding of root-tip cell-type specific proteomic responses to abiotic stresses, such as drought, particularly under field conditions, remains limited. This study aimed to identify spatially resolved, cell type-specific proteomes in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) root tips under drought stress. Root tips were collected from seven-year-old, field-grown switchgrass ‘Alamo’ plants excavated under both well-watered and long-term drought conditions. Cell type-specific proteins were identified using laser capture microdissection (LCM) coupled with nanoPOTS (Nanodroplet Processing in One Pot for Trace Samples) and nano-LC-MS proteomics analysis. Five distinct cell types were targeted: (1) cells in the quiescent center and stem cell niche (QuC), (2) protodermal epidermal cells (PEC) in the meristematic zone, (3) epidermal cells in the transition and elongation zones above the root cap (Epi), (4) peripheral root cap cells (PRC), forming 2–3 layers below the PEC and 1–2 layers above the root border cells, and (5) columella root cap cells (Col) comprising of the columella initials and a single underlying layer of cells undergoing active growth. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed clear separation among the five targeted cell types, confirming distinct proteomic profiles. Proteins predominantly enriched in each cell type were linked to distinct cellular functions, with QuC cells showing involvement in chromosomal behavior, DNA replication, and mitosis—key processes for stem cell niche regulation. Drought stress resulted in alterations of proteostasis, as evidenced by significant decreases in ribosomal proteins and increases in protein synthesis inhibitors. Moreover, drought stress induced unique cell-type–specific proteins involved in phytohormone biosynthesis and signaling pathways, including auxin, cytokinin, and jasmonic acid. In particular, QuC cells were more highly enriched in proteins associated with DNA repair and mitotic processes. Metabolic pathways related to amino acids, carbohydrates, and lipids were differentially affected in a cell-type–dependent manner, whereas general stress-responsive proteins exhibited consistent changes across all five cell types. Overall, this study provides unique spatially resolved, cell-type-specific proteomic profiles in root tips, representing a significant advancement in our understanding of the cellular mechanisms underlying plant responses to drought stress in natural field conditions.

perennial grass↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Retrospective and Prospective Examination of the 1960s U.S. Northeast Drought

As the most severe drought over the Northeastern United States (NEUS) in the past century, the 1960s drought had pronounced socioeconomic impacts. Although it was followed by a persisting wet period, the conditions leading to the 1960s extreme drought could return in the future, along with its challenges to water management. To project the potential consequences of such a future drought, pseudo-global warming simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model are performed to simulate the dynamical conditions of the historical 1960s drought, but with modified thermodynamic conditions under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP585 scenario in the early (2021–2027), middle (2041–2047), and late (2091–2097) 21st century. Our analysis focuses on essential hydroclimatic variables including temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snowpack, and surface runoff. In contrast to the historical 1960s drought, similar dynamical conditions will generally produce more precipitation, increased soil moisture and evapotranspiration, and reduced snowpack. However, we also find that although wet months get much wetter, dry months may become drier, meaning that wetting trends are most significant in wet months but are essentially negligible for extremely dry months with negative monthly mean net precipitation. For these months, the trend toward wetting conditions provides little relief from the effects of extreme dry months. These conditions may even aggravate water shortages due to an increasingly rapid transition from wet to dry conditions. Other challenges emerge for residents and stakeholders in this region, including more extreme hot days, record-low snow pack, frozen ground degradation and subsequent decreases in surface runoff.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future

Abstract Understanding and predicting “droughts” in wind and solar power availability can help the electric grid operator planning and operation toward deep renewable penetration. We assess climate models' ability to simulate these droughts at different horizontal resolutions, ∼100 and ∼25 km, over Western North America and Texas. We find that these power droughts are associated with the high/low pressure systems. The simulated wind and solar power variabilities and their corresponding droughts during historical periods are more sensitive to the model bias than to the model resolution. Future climate simulations reveal varied future change of these droughts across different regions. Although model resolution does not affect the simulation of historical droughts, it does impact the simulated future changes. This suggests that regional response to future warming can vary considerably in high‐ and low‐resolution models. These insights have important implications for adapting power system planning and operations to the changing climate.

Liu, Xue [Department of Oceanography Texas A&amp,M↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of drought on global food security by 2050

Drought is a major driver of crop production loss, threatening global food security as the population rises toward 9 billion by 2050. Using a process-based crop model within an Earth system model, we assess drought-related impacts on maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production at global and country levels. We then develop a food insecurity index combining drought impacts with socio-economic factors. Our results indicate that by 2050, globally averaged drought losses for combined maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production are <2%, though soybean losses reach 3.6%. Despite these small average changes at the global scale, 62 countries experience maximum production losses over 10%, and 24 countries over 20%. Our index identifies regions at greatest risk, including large parts of South America, Africa, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia. These results illustrate the need for drought adaptation to mitigate future drought impacts on crop production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit

Global warming is expected to enhance drought extremes in the United States throughout the twenty-first century. Projecting these changes can be complex in regions with large variability in atmospheric and soil moisture on small spatial scales. Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) is a valuable measure of evaporative demand as moisture moves from the surface into the atmosphere and a dynamic measure of drought. Here, VPD is used to identify short-term drought with the Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI); and used to characterize future extreme droughts using grid dependent stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models, and a random sampling technique is developed to quantify multimodel uncertainties. The GEV analysis was performed with projections using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, downscaled from three Global Climate Models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for present, mid-century and late-century. Results show the VPD based index (SVDI) accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts, and extreme VPD is increasing across the United States and by the end of the twenty-first century. The number of days VPD is above 9 kPa increases by 10 days along California’s coastline, 30–40 days in the northwest and Midwest, and 100 days in California’s Central Valley.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic in vivo monitoring of granum structural changes of Ctenanthe setosa (Roscoe) Eichler during drought stress and subsequent recovery

Investigating the effects of drought stress and subsequent recovery on the structure and function of chloroplasts is essential to understanding how plants adapt to environmental stressors. We investigated Ctenanthe setosa (Roscoe) Eichler, an ornamental plant that can tolerate prolonged drought periods (40 and 49 days of water withdrawal). Conventional biochemical, biophysical, physiological and (ultra)structural methods combined for the first time in a higher plant with in vivo small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) were used to characterize the alterations induced by drought stress and subsequent recovery. Upon drought stress, no significant changes occurred in the chloroplast ultrastructure, chlorophyll content, 77K fluorescence emission spectra and maximal quantum efficiency of PSII (Qy dark), but the actual quantum efficiency of PSII (Qy light) decreased, the amounts of PSI-LHCII complexes and PSII monomers declined, and that of PSII supercomplexes increased. Thickness of the leaf and of the adaxial hypodermis, chloroplast length and granum repeat distance (RD) values decreased upon drought stress, as shown by light microscopy and SANS, respectively. Because of the very slight (nm-range) changes in RD values, the large biological variability (significant differences in RD values among the leaves and studied leaf regions) and the invasive sampling required for this method, transmission electron microscopy (TEM) hardly showed significant differences. On the other side, in situ SANS analyses provided a unique insight in vivo into the fast structural recovery of the granum structure of drought-stressed leaves, which happened already 18 h after re-watering, while functional and biochemical recovery took place on a longer time scale.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The use of soil moisture and Standardized Evaporative Stress Ratio (SESR) anomalies for increased lead time of the development flash drought and heat waves

Drought and rapid intensification of drought (i.e., flash drought) can have significant impacts on the natural environment and the economy, particularly when coupled with a period(s) of extreme heat (Otkin et al., 2018). The development and/or intensification of drought falls squarely in the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) time frame, which dictates that drought development, intensification, and propagation could be an output of a subseasonal or seasonal forecast. Current S2S forecasts have poor skill for forecasting the development of extreme drought and heat waves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Longleaf Pine Seedlings Are Extremely Resilient to the Combined Effects of Experimental Fire and Drought

The longleaf pine ecosystem is dependent on frequent fire. Climate change is expected to influence moisture availability and it is unclear how drought conditions may interact with prescribed fire to influence management objectives associated with maintaining longleaf pine ecosystems. This study aimed to understand the impacts of drought, fire intensity and their interaction on P. palustris grass-stage seedlings. We used droughted and well-watered P. palustris seedlings burned at two different fire intensity levels at an indoor combustion facility. Needle fuel moisture content of burned seedlings was not different between droughted and well-watered groups. Mortality and resprouting only occurred at fire intensity levels exceeding 3.5 MJ m−2 in combination with drought that resulted in predawn water potentials more negative than −1.7 MPa. Our observations of minimal mortality after exposing P. palustris seedlings to a range of fire intensities in a burn lab contrast the higher mortality observed in field studies for the species. Compared to seedlings and saplings of Western US Pinus species, this study demonstrates that P. palustris is considerably more resistant to the combined effects of high surface fire intensity and drought.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1990

Potential evapotranspiration and the likelihood of future drought

The possibility that the greenhouse warming predicted by the GISS general-circulation model and other GCMs could lead to severe droughts is investigated by means of numerical simulations, with a focus on the role of potential evapotranspiration E(P). The relationships between precipitation (P), E(P), soil moisture, and vegetation changes in GCMs are discussed; the empirically derived Palmer drought-intensity index and a new supply-demand index (SDDI) based on changes in P - E(P) are described; and simulation results for the period 1960-2060 are presented in extensive tables, graphs, and computer-generated color maps. Simulations with both drought indices predict increasing drought frequency for the U.S., with effects already apparent in the 1990s and a 50-percent frequency of severe droughts by the 2050s. Analyses of arid periods during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic are shown to support the use of the SDDI in GCM drought prediction.

Rind, D.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Drought Indicators Based on Model Assimilated GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Observations

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin satellites observe time variations in Earth's gravity field which yield valuable information about changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS). GRACE is characterized by low spatial (greater than 150,000 square kilometers) and temporal (greater than 10 day) resolution but has the unique ability to sense water stored at all levels (including groundwater) systematically and continuously. The GRACE Data Assimilation System (GRACE-DAS), based on the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) enhances the value of the GRACE water storage data by enabling spatial and temporal downscaling and vertical decomposition into moisture 39 components (i.e. groundwater, soil moisture, snow), which individually are more useful for scientific applications. In this study, GRACE-DAS was applied to North America and GRACE-based drought indicators were developed as part of a larger effort that investigates the possibility of more comprehensive and objective identification of drought conditions by integrating spatially, temporally and vertically disaggregated GRACE data into the U.S. and North American Drought Monitors. Previously, the Drought Monitors lacked objective information on deep soil moisture and groundwater conditions, which are useful indicators of drought. Extensive datasets of groundwater storage from USGS monitoring wells and soil moisture from the Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) were used to assess improvements in the hydrological modeling skill resulting from the assimilation of GRACE TWS data. The results point toward modest, but statistically significant, improvements in the hydrological modeling skill across major parts of the United States, highlighting the potential value of GRACE assimilated water storage field for improving drought detection.

Houborg, Rasmus↗

NASA NTRS2016

Climate Change Decouples Drought from Early Wine Grape Harvests in France

Across the world, wine grape phenology has advanced in recent decades, in step with climate-change-induced trends in temperature - the main driver of fruit maturation - and drought. Fully understanding how climate change contributes to changes in harvest dates, however, requires analysing wine grape phenology and its relationship to climate over a longer-term context, including data predating anthropogenic interference in the climate system. Here, we investigate the climatic controls of wine grape harvest dates from 1600-2007 in France and Switzerland using historical harvest and climate data. Early harvests occur with warmer temperatures (minus 6 days per degree Centigrade) and are delayed by wet conditions (plus 0.07 days per millimeter; plus 1.68 days per PDSI (Palmer drought severity index)) during spring and summer. In recent decades (1981-2007), however, the relationship between harvest timing and drought has broken down. Historically, high summer temperatures in Western Europe, which would hasten fruit maturation, required drought conditions to generate extreme heat. The relationship between drought and temperature in this region, however, has weakened in recent decades and enhanced warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gases can generate the high temperatures needed for early harvests without drought. Our results suggest that climate change has fundamentally altered the climatic drivers of early wine grape harvests in France, with possible ramifications for viticulture management and wine quality.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Chapter 8: Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires

Recent droughts and associated heat waves have reached record intensity in some regions of the United States; however, by geographical scale and duration, the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s remains the benchmark drought and extreme heat event in the historical record (very high confidence). While by some measures drought has decreased over much of the continental United States in association with long-term increases in precipitation, neither the precipitation increases nor inferred drought decreases have been confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. The human effect on recent major U.S. droughts is complicated. Little evidence is found for a human influence on observed precipitation deficits, but much evidence is found for a human influence on surface soil moisture deficits due to increased evapotranspiration caused by higher temperatures. Future decreases in surface (top 10 cm) soil moisture from anthropogenic forcing over most of the United States are likely as the climate warms under higher scenarios. Substantial reductions in western U.S. winter and spring snowpack are projected as the climate warms. Earlier spring melt and reduced snow water equivalent have been formally attributed to human-induced warming (high confidence) and will very likely be exacerbated as the climate continues to warm (very high confidence). Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible by the end of this century. Detectable changes in some classes of flood frequency have occurred in parts of the United States and are a mix of increases and decreases. Extreme precipitation, one of the controlling factors in flood statistics, is observed to have generally increased and is projected to continue to do so across the United States in a warming atmosphere. However, formal attribution approaches have not established a significant connection of increased riverine flooding to human-induced climate change, and the timing of any emergence of a future detectable anthropogenic change in flooding is unclear. The incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate warms, with profound changes to certain ecosystems.

Wehner, M. F.↗