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DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the U.S. Western Electric Interconnection to Understand the Consequences of Hydrometeorological Extremes and Options for Risk Mitigation

Electricity grid operators around the world face a dual challenge; withstanding increasingly severe weather and the longer term impacts of climate change, while simultaneously decarbonizing. Extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts are rising in both severity and frequency, which is threatening the reliability of electricity grids through increased demand, generation capacity losses, and equipment failures. Consequently, incorporating hydrometeorological stressors into computational power systems analysis is becoming an even more critical tool in long term planning and short term operations. However, there is a general lack of open-source customizable grid simulation software capable of exhaustively stress testing the grid under hydrometeorological uncertainty, and/or examining potential risk mitigation pathways. A related, persistent challenge for power system modelers is striking an appropriate balance between model fidelity (e.g. spatial scale and time resolution) and computational tractability (wall clock run-time). In this study, we are proposing a solution to this problem with open-source software that allows users to seamlessly customize the scale and track the accuracy of grid operations models. Our approach allows users to search over numerous model parameters (network topology, mathematical formulation, economic hurdle rates, and transmission line scaling) to identify model instantiations that accommodate experimental design. Further, we use this approach to demonstrate the importance of including extreme weather events in model validation and model selection. Focusing on the occurrence of heatwaves and droughts in the U.S. Western Interconnection, we examine role of extreme events in balancing tradeoffs between model fidelity and run-time at the model design stage.

Economics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Power generation-cooling water Nexus: Impacts of cooling water shortage on power system operation - a simulation case study in Illinois, U.S

Cooling water shortage, frequently attributed to drought and heat waves, poses a significant threat to the operations of thermoelectric power plants and further poses a challenge for the entire power system and environmental stakeholders. Recognizing the critical nexus between power generation and cooling water availability and the potential ability of power generations to adjust generation schedules during cooling water shortages, this paper introduces a security-constrained unit commitment and economic dispatch model considering water-energy nexus. In specific, the model is augmented with a unit-level cooling water requirement (CWR) model and multi-level cooling water availability (CWA) constraints. The unit-level CWR model quantifies the cooling water withdrawal per MWh of power generation, taking into account factors such as thermoelectric generation technologies, cooling system technologies, and environmental parameters. The multi-level CWA constraints incorporate pump-level, plant-level, watershed-level, and forced minimum power constraints, utilizing data derived from actual-based cooling water shortage scenarios. Using a simulation case study in Illinois, United States, this research examines the reliability, economic, and environmental implications of cooling water shortages on power system operations. The results show that Illinois may experience 10-15% daily load curtailment and severe congestion between certain regions from the east to central during cooling water shortages, while once-through and wet-tower units experience a 52% and 17% reduction in power generation. In conclusion, overall cooling water withdrawal decreases by 24-38% as severity intensifies.

Cooling water shortage↗
DOE OSTI2022

Drivers and ecological impacts of a wildfire outbreak in the southern Appalachian Mountains after decades of fire exclusion

During one of the warmest and driest droughts of the last century, the southern Appalachian Mountains experienced a regional outbreak of over a dozen large wildfires in late fall of 2016. We provide a synthesis of long-term forest changes leading up to the 2016 wildfires, examine the climatic setting and patterns of burn severity in relationship to topography, and discuss the ecological and management implications of these and future fires. During the pre- and post-European settlement periods, frequent low- and mixed-severity wildfires interacted with complex topographic gradients and maintained heterogenous landscapes dominated by several species of oak (Quercus spp.), pine (Pinus spp.), and the American chestnut (Castanea dentata). Land-use changes associated with European settlement, loss of the American chestnut, and 20th century fire exclusion resulted in large scale shifts towards mesic, fire-intolerant species (i.e. mesophication). Wildfire activity began increasing in the early 1980s, but most fires in the region are small (<1,000 ha). In Fall of 2016, deciduous tree leaf fall occurred concurrently with a period of anomalously dry and warm weather, creating ideal conditions for fire ignition and spread. Thousands of ignitions across the region strained suppression resources and eight fires grew to greater than 5,000 ha. The 2016 fires were larger and burned more area than in the previous three decades combined. In one unique landscape setting, the Chimney Tops 2 Fire, a synoptic wind event drove extreme fire behavior and burned large, high-severity patches resulting in devastating effects in the wildland urban interface. However, immediate post-fire burn severity mosaics for other fires were composed primarily of low- (73 %) and moderate-severity (21 %) fire effects. High-severity fire comprised only 6 % of the area burned, and occurred mostly on steep upper slopes and ridges on south-facing aspects, reflecting the importance of bottom-up topographic drivers in this region. Although the fires will likely enhance biodiversity by restoring fire-dependent species and creating early seral habitat, invasions of non-native plant species, delayed mortality of mature pines and oaks, and rapid re-sprouting of pyrophyllic shrubs pose significant management challenges. Although similar large fire outbreaks may become more common under future climatic conditions, they are unlikely to reverse the effects of mesophication and significantly alter forest dynamics at broad spatial scales. Furthermore, the 2016 fires exposed the vulnerability of the region to wildfire during acute fall drought and demonstrate the potential ecological effects of future wildfires in mixed pine-hardwood landscapes of the southern Appalachians.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies

Abstract. Climatic extreme events are expected to occur more frequently in the future, increasing the likelihood of unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) or record-breaking events. UCEs, such as extreme heatwaves and droughts, substantially affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling by increasing plant mortality and delaying ecosystem recovery. Quantitative knowledge of such effects is limited due to the paucity of experiments focusing on extreme climatic events beyond the range of historical experience. Here, we present a road map of how dynamic vegetation demographic models (VDMs) can be used to investigate hypotheses surrounding ecosystem responses to one type of UCE: unprecedented droughts. As a result of nonlinear ecosystem responses to UCEs that are qualitatively different from responses to milder extremes, we consider both biomass loss and recovery rates over time by reporting a time-integrated carbon loss as a result of UCE, relative to the absence of drought. Additionally, we explore how unprecedented droughts in combination with increasing atmospheric CO2 and/or temperature may affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling. We explored these questions using simulations of pre-drought and post-drought conditions at well-studied forest sites using well-tested models (ED2 and LPJ-GUESS). The severity and patterns of biomass losses differed substantially between models. For example, biomass loss could be sensitive to either drought duration or drought intensity depending on the model approach. This is due to the models having different, but also plausible, representations of processes and interactions, highlighting the complicated variability of UCE impacts that still need to be narrowed down in models. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2) alone did not completely buffer the ecosystems from carbon losses during UCEs in the majority of our simulations. Our findings highlight the consequences of differences in process formulations and uncertainties in models, most notably related to availability in plant carbohydrate storage and the diversity of plant hydraulic schemes, in projecting potential ecosystem responses to UCEs. We provide a summary of the current state and role of many model processes that give way to different underlying hypotheses of plant responses to UCEs, reflecting knowledge gaps which in future studies could be tested with targeted field experiments and an iterative modeling–experimental conceptual framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Natural and anthropogenic controls on lake water‐level decline and evaporation‐to‐inflow ratio in the conterminous United States

Abstract Lake water levels are integral to lake function, but hydrologic changes from land and water management may alter lake fluctuations beyond natural ranges. We constructed a conceptual model of multifaceted drivers of lake water levels and evaporation‐to‐inflow ratio (Evap : Inflow). Using a structural equation modeling framework, we tested our model on (1) a national subset of lakes in the conterminous United States with minimal water management to describe natural drivers of lake hydrology and (2) five ecoregional subsets of lakes to explore regional variation in water management effects. Our model fits the national and ecoregional datasets and explained up to 47% of variation in Evap : Inflow, 38% of vertical water level decline, and 79% of horizontal water level decline (littoral exposure). For lakes with minimal water management, Evap : Inflow was related to lake depth ( β = −0.31) and surface inflow ( β = −0.44); vertical decline was related to annual climate (e.g., precipitation β = −0.18) and water management ( β = −0.21); and horizontal decline was largely related to vertical decline ( β = 0.73) and lake morphometry (e.g., depth β = −0.18). Anthropogenic effects varied by ecoregion and likely reflect differences in regional water management and climate. In the West, water management indicators were related to greater vertical decline ( β = 0.38), whereas in the Midwest, these indicators were related to more stable and full lake levels ( β = −0.22) even during drought conditions. National analyses show how human water use interacts with regional climate resulting in contrasting impacts to lake hydrologic variation in the United States.

Fergus, C. Emi↗
DOE OSTI2021

Relative effect of anthropogenic warming and natural climate variability to changes in Compound drought and heatwaves

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events can be influenced by large scale teleconnections and anthropogenic warming, leading to severe socio-economic impacts across various climate regions. Here, the relative influence of six different teleconnection patterns and anthropogenic global warming on the global CDHW occurrences is quantified systematically using the instrumental data period, 1982–2016. The results from the study suggest a substantial increase in the CDHW events (1–5 events per year) across various parts of the globe at the beginning of 21st century (2000–2016). A Bayesian approach is implemented to identify the most vulnerable climate regions based on the degree of susceptibility of heatwaves (DSHW) towards drought. As such, top ten most vulnerable regions are selected based on the DSHW magnitude, and a partial correlation analysis is performed to select the natural and anthropogenic drivers of CDHW in those regions, separately. A logistic regression model is then used to determine significant changes in the odds of CDHW due to changes in the selected drivers that suggest a significantly positive, and multiplicative effect of anthropogenic global warming in the top ten most vulnerable climate regions. Finally, the same logistic regression model, integrated with an analytical framework, is applied to determine the relative influence of anthropogenic global warming on the changes in odds of CDHW for the future, 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits. Finally, the results suggest that relative to the 2 °C global warming, constraining to the 1.5 °C global warming limit may conduce about 17-fold reduction in the odds of CDHW in the most vulnerable climate region, East Asia, 5–8-fold reduction in Western North America, Northern Australia, Central North America, Central Europe, South Asia, and the Mediterranean region, and 3–4-fold reduction in Northeastern Brazil, Eastern North America, and West Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Ecological Impacts of Dry and Hot Shocks in the Land of Midnight Sun

Contreras-Serrano et al. (2025) and Heinzelmann et al. (2025) investigated how droughts and heatwaves affect plant physiology and community functions in the Arctic. At first glance, such studies may seem counterintuitive. As the Earth's refrigerator, the Arctic is probably the least likely place that one might associate with droughts and heatwaves. However, dry and hot shocks do occur there, and their frequency and intensity can be surprisingly high. On June 20, 2020, the thermometer at the weather station of the Siberian town of Verkhoyansk (67.55° N and 133.40° E) witnessed a record temperature of 38°C in the Article Circle (Ciavarella et al. 2021). This record Arctic temperature was the consequence of the congruence of the powers of the stratospheric polar vortex, the tropospheric jet stream, and the Arctic Oscillation, all of which reached record strength in the early months of 2020, priming the conditions for an unprecedented ecological disturbance (Overland and Wang 2021). This extreme event, now known as the 2020 Siberian heatwave, caused widespread wildfires, insect outbreaks, and permafrost degradation, releasing almost 60 million tons of carbon into the atmosphere (ESOTC 2020). Extreme weather events like this are not just limited to Siberia (Dobricic et al. 2020). The Arctic has warmed up much faster than the rest of the world, that is, “Arctic Amplification” (Moon et al. 2024). The total land area affected by severe, extreme, and very extreme heatwaves has doubled, tripled, and quadrupled, respectively, across the terrestrial Arctic since the 1950s, and the extent is projected to continue increasing throughout the 21st century (Rantanen et al. 2024).

Arctic↗
DOE OSTI2023

Asymmetric response of Amazon forest water and energy fluxes to wet and dry hydrological extremes reveals onset of a local drought-induced tipping point

Understanding the effects of intensification of Amazon basin hydrological cycling—manifest as increasingly frequent floods and droughts—on water and energy cycles of tropical forests is essential to meeting the challenge of predicting ecosystem responses to climate change, including forest “tipping points”. Here, we investigated the impacts of hydrological extremes on forest function using 12+ years of observations (between 2001–2020) of water and energy fluxes from eddy covariance, along with associated ecological dynamics from biometry, at the Tapajós National Forest. Measurements encompass the strong 2015–2016 El Niño drought and La Niña 2008–2009 wet events. We found that the forest responded strongly to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Drought reduced water availability for evapotranspiration ( ET ) leading to large increases in sensible heat fluxes ( H ). Partitioning ET by an approach that assumes transpiration ( T ) is proportional to photosynthesis, we found that water stress-induced reductions in canopy conductance ( G s ) drove T declines partly compensated by higher evaporation ( E ). By contrast, the abnormally wet La Niña period gave higher T and lower E , with little change in seasonal ET . Both El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events resulted in changes in forest structure, manifested as lower wet-season leaf area index. However, only during El Niño 2015–2016, we observed a breakdown in the strong meteorological control of transpiration fluxes (via energy availability and atmospheric demand) because of slowing vegetation functions (via shutdown of G s and significant leaf shedding). Drought-reduced T and G s , higher H and E , amplified by feedbacks with higher temperatures and vapor pressure deficits, signaled that forest function had crossed a threshold, from which it recovered slowly, with delay, post-drought. In conclusion, identifying such tipping point onsets (beyond which future irreversible processes may occur) at local scale is crucial for predicting basin-scale threshold-crossing changes in forest energy and water cycling, leading to slow-down in forest function, potentially resulting in Amazon forests shifting into alternate degraded states.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation

Approximately 2.5 × 10 6 square kilometers of the Amazon forest are currently degraded by fire, edge effects, timber extraction, and/or extreme drought, representing 38% of all remaining forests in the region. Carbon emissions from this degradation total up to 0.2 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year –1 ), which is equivalent to, if not greater than, the emissions from Amazon deforestation (0.06 to 0.21 Pg C year –1 ). Amazon forest degradation can reduce dry-season evapotranspiration by up to 34% and cause as much biodiversity loss as deforestation in human-modified landscapes, generating uneven socioeconomic burdens, mainly to forest dwellers. Projections indicate that degradation will remain a dominant source of carbon emissions independent of deforestation rates. In conclusion, policies to tackle degradation should be integrated with efforts to curb deforestation and complemented with innovative measures addressing the disturbances that degrade the Amazon forest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stand and environmental conditions drive functional shifts associated with mesophication in eastern US forests

There is a growing body of evidence that mesic tree species are increasing in importance across much of the eastern US. This increase is often observed in tandem with a decrease in the abundance and importance of species considered to be better adapted to disturbance and drier conditions (e.g., Quercus species). Concern over this transition is related to several factors, including the potential that this transition is self-reinforcing (termed “mesophication”), will result in decreased resiliency of forests to a variety of disturbances, and may negatively impact ecosystem functioning, timber value, and wildlife habitat. Evidence for shifts in composition provide broad-scale support for mesophication, but we lack information on the fine-scale factors that drive the associated functional changes. Understanding this variability is particularly important as managers work to develop site-and condition-specific management practices to target stands or portions of the landscape where this transition is occurring or is likely to occur in the future. To address this knowledge gap and identify forests that are most susceptible to mesophication (which we evaluate as a functional shift to less drought or fire tolerant, or more shade tolerant, forests), we used data from the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis program to determine what fine-scale factors impact the rate (change through time) and degree (difference between the overstory and midstory) of change in eastern US forests. We found that mesophication varies along stand and environmental gradients, but this relationship depended on the functional trait examined. For example, shade and drought tolerance suggest mesophication is greatest at sites with more acidic soils, while fire tolerance suggests mesophication increases with soil pH. Mesophication was also generally more pronounced in older stands, stands with more variable diameters, and in wetter sites, but plots categorized as “hydric” were often highly variable. Our results provide evidence that stand-scale conditions impact current and potential future changes in trait conditions and composition across eastern US forests. We provide a starting point for managers looking to prioritize portions of the landscape most at risk and developing treatments to address the compositional and functional changes associated with mesophication.

Woodbridge, Margaret↗
DOE OSTI2024

The impacts of rising vapour pressure deficit in natural and managed ecosystems

Abstract An exponential rise in the atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD) is among the most consequential impacts of climate change in terrestrial ecosystems. Rising VPD has negative and cascading effects on nearly all aspects of plant function including photosynthesis, water status, growth and survival. These responses are exacerbated by land–atmosphere interactions that couple VPD to soil water and govern the evolution of drought, affecting a range of ecosystem services including carbon uptake, biodiversity, the provisioning of water resources and crop yields. However, despite the global nature of this phenomenon, research on how to incorporate these impacts into resilient management regimes is largely in its infancy, due in part to the entanglement of VPD trends with those of other co‐evolving climate drivers. Here, we review the mechanistic bases of VPD impacts at a range of spatial scales, paying particular attention to the independent and interactive influence of VPD in the context of other environmental changes. We then evaluate the consequences of these impacts within key management contexts, including water resources, croplands, wildfire risk mitigation and management of natural grasslands and forests. We conclude with recommendations describing how management regimes could be altered to mitigate the otherwise highly deleterious consequences of rising VPD.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mesoscale convective systems in the third pole region: Characteristics, mechanisms and impact on precipitation

The climate system of the Third Pole region, including the (TP) and its surroundings, is highly sensitive to global warming. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are understood to be a vital component of this climate system. Driven by the monsoon circulation, surface heating, and large-scale and local moisture supply, they frequently occur during summer and mostly over the central and eastern TP as well as in the downstream regions. Further, MCSs have been highlighted as important contributors to total precipitation as they are efficient rain producers affecting water availability (seasonal precipitation) and potential flood risk (extreme precipitation) in the densely populated downstream regions. The availability of multi-decadal satellite observations and high-resolution climate model datasets has made it possible to study the role of MCSs in the under-observed TP water balance. However, the usage of different methods for MCS identification and the different focuses on specific subregions currently hamper a systematic and consistent assessment of the role played by MCSs and their impact on precipitation over the TP headwaters and its downstream regions. Here, we review observational and model studies of MCSs in the TP region within a common framework to elucidate their main characteristics, underlying mechanisms, and impact on seasonal and extreme precipitation. We also identify major knowledge gaps and provide suggestions on how these can be addressed using recently published high-resolution model datasets. Three important identified knowledge gaps are 1) the feedback of MCSs to other components of the TP climate system, 2) the impact of the changing climate on future MCS characteristics, and 3) the basin-scale assessment of flood and drought risks associated with changes in MCS frequency and intensity. A particularly promising tool to address these knowledge gaps are convection-permitting climate simulations. Therefore, the systematic evaluation of existing historical convection-permitting climate simulations over the TP is an urgent requirement for reliable future climate change assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

From tides to seasons: How cyclic tidal drivers and plant physiology interact to affect carbon cycling at the terrestrial-estuarine boundary (Final technical report)

Coastal ecosystems are among the most biologically and biogeochemically active and diverse systems on Earth. Because they act as important linkages between terrestrial ecosystems and the open ocean, their incorporation in Earth system models (ESMs) is critical to predict coastal and global responses to environmental changes. However, they vary greatly in the magnitude of tides and the volume and timing of freshwater input from land, making it challenging to model the major biogeochemical reactions that control productivity and greenhouse gas emissions across coastal terrestrial aquatic interfaces (TAIs). Our overall objective was to improve mechanistic process understanding and modeling of tidal wetland hydro-biogeochemistry in coastal TAIs. We established a new flux tower site (Ameriflux US-PLo) in the oligohaline part of the Parker River to continuously monitor ecosystem-scale carbon fluxes under temporally varying salinity conditions. The site is co-located with long-term monitoring plots of the Plum Island Ecosystems LTER project. We installed wells and redox sensors in the marsh interior and creek bank, established biomass monitoring plots and deployed novel optode sensors in both locations. We used this data to parameterize plant-mediated transport in PFLOTRAN and tested the impact of soil heterogeneity on porewater constituents and gas fluxes. We collected observations of root oxygen release with a novel planar optode system in the field. Flux data collected during the measurement period encompasses a large variation in salinity ranging from drought to record precipitation years. We developed a method to extract functional relationships from the flux data using artificial neural networks, identifying salinity thresholds for CH 4 fluxes. Finally, we are using the coupled ELM-PFLOTRAN model to test the impact of antecedent hydrological conditions on the salinity-CH 4 flux relationship. This grant contributed to the professional development of one postdoc, three research assistants and one graduate student. The sensor data has been shared with external collaborators.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Field–scale evaluation of ecosystem service benefits of bioenergy switchgrass

Purpose-grown perennial herbaceous species are nonfood crops specifically cultivated for bioenergy production and have the potential to secure bioenergy feedstock resources while enhancing ecosystem services. This study assessed soil greenhouse gas emissions (CO 2 and N 2 O), nitrate (NO 3 -N) leaching reduction potential, evapotranspiration (ET), and water-use efficiency (WUE) of bioenergy switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) in comparison to corn (Zea mays L.). The study was conducted on field-scale plots in Urbana, IL, during the 2020–2022 growing seasons. Switchgrass was established in 2020 and urea-fertilized at 56 kg N ha –1 year –1 . Corn management followed best management practices for the US Midwest, including no-till and 202 kg N ha –1 year –1 fertilization, applied as urea–ammonium nitrate (32%). Our results showed lower direct N 2 O emissions in switchgrass compared to corn. Although soil CO 2 emissions did not differ significantly during the establishment year, emissions in subsequent years were over 50% higher in switchgrass than in corn, likely due to increased belowground biomass, which was over five times higher in switchgrass. Nitrate-N leaching decreased as the switchgrass stand matured, reaching 80% lower than in corn by the third year. Differences in ET and WUE between corn and switchgrass were not significant; however, results indicate a trend toward reduced WUE in switchgrass under drought, driven by lower aboveground biomass production. Our study demonstrates that switchgrass can be implemented at a commercial scale without negatively impacting the hydrological cycle, while potentially reducing N losses through nitrate-N leaching and soil N 2 O emissions, and enhancing belowground C storage.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data for "Field-scale Evaluation of Ecosystem Service Benefits of Bioenergy Switchgrass"

Purpose-grown perennial herbaceous species are nonfood crops specifically cultivated for bioenergy production and have the potential to secure bioenergy feedstock resources while enhancing ecosystem services. This study assessed soil greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 and N2O), nitrate (NO3-N) leaching reduction potential, evapotranspiration (ET), and water-use efficiency (WUE) of bioenergy switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) in comparison to corn ( Zea mays L.). The study was conducted on field-scale plots in Urbana, IL, during the 2020–2022 growing seasons. Switchgrass was established in 2020 and urea-fertilized at 56 kg N ha−1 year−1. Corn management followed best management practices for the US Midwest, including no-till and 202 kg N ha−1 year−1 fertilization, applied as urea–ammonium nitrate (32%). Our results showed lower direct N2O emissions in switchgrass compared to corn. Although soil CO2 emissions did not differ significantly during the establishment year, emissions in subsequent years were over 50% higher in switchgrass than in corn, likely due to increased belowground biomass, which was over five times higher in switchgrass. Nitrate-N leaching decreased as the switchgrass stand matured, reaching 80% lower than in corn by the third year. Differences in ET and WUE between corn and switchgrass were not significant; however, results indicate a trend toward reduced WUE in switchgrass under drought, driven by lower aboveground biomass production. Our study demonstrates that switchgrass can be implemented at a commercial scale without negatively impacting the hydrological cycle, while potentially reducing N losses through nitrate-N leaching and soil N2O emissions, and enhancing belowground C storage.

field data↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analysis of PV Fleet Performance in Western United States During August 2020 Extreme Heat Wave

Starting in June 2020 through the end of that year, the western and central United States experienced a widespread heat wave and drought, which resulted in US$5.44 billion (CPI-adjusted) worth of damages. The ongoing heat and drought produced record large wildfires across the region, responsible for an additional US$19.9 billion in damage. These natural disasters directly impacted the energy system in the western US, leading to power blackouts in August 2020. In this work, we analyze the NLR PV Fleets data set, focusing on the geographic area covered by the Western Coordinating Council (WECC). We find that over the 10-day period from August 14 through 24, the median PV system produced 12% lower energy than expected, with some locations experiencing total losses of around 30%. Analyzing the spatial-temporal structure of the data and supplementing with limited operational current and voltage data where available, we find that system underperformance was more strongly impacted by irradiance reduction from wildfire smoke rather than by the high heat itself.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increased Asian Sulfate Aerosol Emissions Remarkably Enhance Sahel Summer Precipitation

Observational evidence shows that Sahel summer precipitation has experienced a considerable increase since the 1980s, coinciding with significant diverging trends of increased sulfate emissions in Asia and decreased emissions in Europe (dipole pattern of aerosols between Asia and Europe). The decrease in European sulfate aerosols has substantial effects on the Sahel summer precipitation increase, but the corresponding effect of increased Asian sulfate is unknown. Multi-model simulations in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) show, compared to decreased European aerosols, that increased Asian aerosols similarly enhance the Sahel summer precipitation but with different large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. Further analysis of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations under historical attribution and various emission scenarios reinforces the results about the climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosols and suggests that in future scenarios with strong international cooperation and rapid climate mitigations (SSP2-45), the Sahel drought will be intensified likely due to the decline in Asian aerosol emissions. Our results suggest that Asian anthropogenic aerosols are likely a non-negligible driver of the recent recovery in Sahel precipitation amounts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Drought Shifts Sorghum Root Metabolite and Microbiome Profiles and Enriches for Pipecolic Acid

Plant-associated microbial communities shift in composition as a result of environmental perturbations, such as drought. It has been shown that Actinobacteria are enriched in plant roots and rhizospheres during drought stress. However, the correlations between microbiome dynamics and plant response to drought are poorly understood. Here we apply a combination of bacterial community composition analysis and plant metabolite profiling in Sorghum bicolor roots, rhizospheres, and soil during drought and drought recovery to investigate potential contributions of host metabolism to shifts in bacterial composition. Our results provide a detailed view of metabolic shifts across the plant root during drought and show that the response to rewatering differs between root and soil; additionally, we identify drought-responsive metabolites that are highly correlated with the observed changes in Actinobacteria abundance. Furthermore, we find that pipecolic acid is a drought-enriched metabolite in sorghum roots, and that exogenous application of pipecolic acid inhibits root growth. Finally, we show that this activity functions independent of the systemic acquired resistance pathway and has the potential to impact Actinobacterial taxa within the root microbiome.

165 RRNA↗