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Results for “dynamic state estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Global Data-Driven Determination of Baryon Transition Form Factors

Hadronic resonances emerge from strong interactions encoding the dynamics of quarks and gluons. The structure of these resonances can be probed by virtual photons parametrized in transition form factors. Here, in this study, twelve N* and Δ transition form factors at the pole are extracted from data with the center-of-mass energy from πN threshold to 1.8 GeV, and the photon virtuality 0 ≤ Q 2 /GeV 2 ≤ 8. For the first time, these results are determined from a simultaneous analysis of more than one state, i.e., ~10 5 π⁢N, η⁢N, and K⁢Λ electroproduction data. In addition, about 5×10 4 data in the hadronic sector as well as photoproduction serve as boundary conditions. For the Δ⁡(1232) and N⁡(1440) states our results are in qualitative agreement with previous studies, while the transition form factors at the poles of some higher excited states are estimated for the first time. Realistic uncertainties are determined by further exploring the parameter space.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

CO 2 Sorption in Moisture Swing Anion Exchange Resins for Direct Air Capture: Experimental Isotherm Determination and Modeling

Moisture swing (MS) sorption is a promising direct air capture (DAC) technology to achieve negative CO 2 emissions and counter global warming. Here, in this study, MS CO 2 sorption in a model MS sorbent, IRA900, was investigated. IRA900 is a macroporous commercial strong-base anion exchange resin (AER) with quaternary ammonium functional groups. A rigorous CO 2 desorption process was developed to desorb all CO 2 from the sample and obtain CO 2 sorption isotherms as a function of relative humidity, CO 2 partial pressure, and temperature. CO 2 sorption increased with decreasing relative humidity, decreasing temperature, and increasing CO 2 partial pressure. Remarkably, the total CO 2 uptake from the sorption isotherms matched the ion exchange capacity (IEC) of the material, suggesting a stoichiometry of one CO 2 molecule reacting per active site. An isotherm model for CO 2 sorption starting with empty sorption sites (i.e., with the AER in the OH – form) described the experimental data well, supporting the hypothesis that the bicarbonate-loaded AER fully unloaded to the OH – state following rigorous CO 2 desorption. CO 2 sorption kinetics were studied, and carbon diffusion coefficients were estimated as a function of %RH and CO 2 partial pressure. Overall, this study provides a roadmap for the systematic evaluation of MS CO 2 DAC materials.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 1. Overview of the Atmospheric Component

This paper describes the atmospheric component of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 3. Significant updates have been made to the atmospheric physics compared to earlier versions. Specifically, interactive gas chemistry has been implemented, along with improved representations of aerosols and dust emissions. A new stratiform cloud microphysics scheme more physically treats ice processes and aerosol‐cloud interactions. The deep convection parameterization has been largely improved with sophisticated microphysics for convective clouds, making model convection sensitive to large‐scale dynamics, and incorporating the dynamical and physical effects of organized mesoscale convection. Improvements in aerosol wet removal processes and parameter re‐tuning of key aerosol and cloud processes have improved model aerosol radiative forcing. The model's vertical resolution has increased from 72 to 80 layers with the extra eight layers added in the lower stratosphere to better simulate the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation. These improvements have enhanced E3SM's capability to couple aerosol, chemistry, and biogeochemistry and reduced some long‐standing biases in simulating tropical variability. Compared to its predecessors, the model shows a much stronger signal for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby‐gravity waves, and eastward inertia‐gravity waves. Aerosol radiative forcing has been considerably reduced and is now better aligned with community best estimates, leading to significantly improved skill in simulating historical temperature records. Its simulated mean‐state climate is largely comparable to E3SMv2, but with some notable degradation in shortwave cloud radiative effect, precipitable water, and surface wind stress, which will be addressed in future updates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Foundational Industrial Energy Dataset (FIED): Open-Source Data on Industrial Facilities

The state of data on industrial energy use has co-evolved over several decades with the demands of industrial energy analysis. The most recent development - analysis in support of decarbonizing the industrial sector - has changed the characteristics of industrial data that are useful for analysts and model developers. Although data and its collection processes may be cast from a conventional viewpoint as objective and free from the influence of social dynamics, this provides an incomplete picture of not only the processes by which information is generated, but also the limitations and opportunities of data to be useful for analysis. The foundational industry energy data set (FIED) is a result of the confluence of trends in open data and the demand for higher resolution industrial energy analysis. The general approach to compiling the FIED involves accessing, filtering, and formatting data published by federal organizations on the Internet for public use. Unlike most industrial energy datasets, which are published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the FIED relies on core datasets from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The FIED addresses several of the areas of growing disconnect between the demands of industrial energy analysis and the state of industrial energy data by providing unit-level characterization - including estimates of energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and design capacities - for facilities that are identified by latitude and longitude. This enables local-level analysis of existing combustion equipment, as well as regional comparisons with traditional industrial energy data estimates. The report summarizes the general logic behind compiling the FIED. The FIED itself and its Python code are available from OpenEI and GitHub, respectively.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extending SLUSCHI for Automated Diffusion Calculations

We present an extension of the SLUSCHI package (Solid and Liquid in Ultra Small Coexistence with Hovering Interfaces) to enable automated diffusion calculations from first-principles molecular dynamics. While the original SLUSCHI workflow was designed for melting temperature estimation via solid-liquid coexistence, we adapt its input and output handling to isolate the volume search stage and generate one production trajectory suitable for diffusion analysis. Post-processing tools parse VASP outputs, compute mean-square displacements (MSD), and extract tracer diffusivities using the Einstein relation with robust error estimates through block averaging. Diagnostic plots, including MSD curves, running slopes, and velocity autocorrelations, are produced automatically to help identify diffusive regimes. The method has been validated through representative case studies: self-diffusion in Al-Cu liquid alloys, sublattice melting in Li7La3Zr2O12 and Er2O3, interstitial oxygen transport in bcc and fcc Fe, and oxygen diffusivity in Fe-O liquids with variable Si and Al contents. Viscosity and diffusivity are linked through the Stokes-Einstein relation, with composition dependence assessed via simple linear mixing. This capability broadens SLUSCHI from melting-point predictions to transport property evaluation, enabling high-throughput, fully first-principles datasets of diffusion coefficients and viscosities across metals and oxides.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance of a dynamic single bubbler in single and two-phase immiscible liquids

Ensuring nonproliferation and safeguards of special nuclear materials (SNM) is a critical aspect of advancing the nuclear fuel cycle. Traditional bubbler systems used to estimate liquid levels and densities in nuclear recycling processes have limitations, particularly in harsh environments where dip-tube corrosion and buildup necessitate frequent maintenance and recalibration. This study explores the Dynamic Single Bubbler (DSB) method, which utilizes a single dip-tube attached to a linear actuator to estimate liquid properties dynamically. This approach is extended to estimate liquid-liquid interfaces in immiscible liquids and employs a linear regression method to reduce uncertainties and improve accuracy. The DSB method achieved density estimate uncertainties of less than 0.5% and surface level estimate uncertainties typically under 0.5%, across various fluids including water, acetone, methanol, mineral oil, glycerol, and aqueous salt solutions. Results indicate that the DSB method provides accurate and robust estimates of liquid density and surface levels with minimal maintenance and without the need for calibration. Additionally, the method's applicability to immiscible liquids and various dip-tube geometries was demonstrated, showing promise for widespread use in nuclear and other industrial applications.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scale effects on core design, fuel costs, and spent fuel volume of pressurized water reactors

The desire to improve the economic competitiveness and deployment pace of nuclear energy through modularization, manufacturing, and series production had led to the development of smaller size reactors. As the standard 17x17 fuel technology is mainly maintained in the pressurized water reactors (PWRs) category, this translates into a lower number of fuel assemblies in the core and sometimes a reduced fuel height. To assess the impact of such scale change in core design on fuel cycle cost and spent fuel volume, a scoping analysis tool is developed based on infinite lattice calculations, leakage, fuel management reduced models, and levelized unit cost of electricity (LCOE) estimate. As such, cost dynamics driven by fuel specific power, burnup, core leakage, feed, cycle length, fuel assembly height as well as uranium market data are captured with consistent set of assumptions and analysis methods. A selection of 5 reactor designs representative of leading PWR developers is assessed and compared. Pursuing higher specific powers and optimal burnups are highlighted as the main fuel cost reduction drivers, nevertheless, practical limitations and opportunities must be evaluated to establish the feasibility of such enhanced fuel operation. In consequence, a detailed core design is performed using SIMULATE3 code for 5 PWR variations including natural and forced coolant circulation modes, two reactor scales, power densities of 73, 112, and 123 kW/l and higher discharge burnups. Design and optimization are performed at the lattice level, for the reflector, and at the core loading level. Satisfactory steady-state operation including power distribution, coolant operating limits, and reactivity requirements are analyzed and reported in this paper. The fuel economics of the detailed core designs confirm the scoping analysis findings. Despite the unlocked power uprates in small PWRs, the achievable burnup for a given fuel specific power requires more enrichment and shorter fuel height results in higher fabrication costs per mass of fuel, which makes scaling down core size a more expensive endeavor on the fuel cycle front. Spent fuel volumes are reported for the PWRs designed in this paper. Furthermore, these volumes are driven by the core average discharge burnup regardless of the scale in consideration. Additional cost and core performance aspects related to heavy reflector gains, fuel-reflector substitution, and disposal cost policy in the U.S. are examined.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the Structural Response of Amphiphilic Monolayers to Environmental Stimuli

Amphiphilic monolayers composed of end groups with distinct polar and nonpolar functional groups offer rapid and reversible interfacial adaptation in response to environmental stimuli such as a change in interfacial medium polarity. We have synthesized and characterized a suite of monolayers with functional groups of competing polarity designed to reconfigure their interfacial chemical composition in response to solvent polarity. In these films, the end group is designed to be able to reorient and expose the functional groups that minimize the interfacial free energy between the film and the environment. Using a combination of spectroscopic, computational, and wettability studies, we have investigated the responsive interfacial behavior of different end groups upon exposure to environments with varying polarities. Contact angle measurements across a series of polar and dispersive probe liquids reveal trends that reflect the underlying molecular flexibility and composition. Vibrational sum frequency generation (SFG) spectroscopy and atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations confirm solvent-driven reorientation of the end groups, with restructuring observed at the interface. To quantify these effects, we have developed a surface energy calculation model that incorporates solvent-induced surface rearrangements into the estimations. Our findings reveal a strong dependence of surface energy and switching behavior on the length and flexibility of the functionalities in the end group, which affects the exposure of certain interfacial compositions under different solvents. These results offer new insights into the design of adaptive monolayers and provide a framework for evaluating solvent-responsive surfaces.

functional groups↗
DOE OSTI2025

An efficient surrogate model of secondary electron formation and evolution

This work extends the adjoint-deep learning framework for runaway electron (RE) evolution, developed by McDevitt et al. [Phys. Plasmas 32, 042503 (2025)], to account for large-angle collisions. By incorporating large-angle collisions, the framework allows the avalanche of REs to be captured, an essential component of RE dynamics. This extension is accomplished by using a Rosenbluth–Putvinski approximation to estimate the distribution of secondary electrons generated by large-angle collisions. By evolving both the primary and multiple generations of secondary electrons, the present formulation can capture both the detailed temporal evolution of a RE population beginning from an arbitrary initial momentum space distribution, along with providing approximations to the saturated growth and decay rates of the RE population. Predictions of the adjoint-deep learning framework are verified against a traditional RE solver, with good agreement present across a broad range of parameters.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

I-V curve analysis of single-nanoparticle Al-doped SrTiO 3

Strontium Titanate (SrTiO 3 or STO) is an oxide-semiconductor material which shows promise for photocatalytic water splitting, but remains poorly understood. To better understand its carrier dynamics, STO nanoparticles deposited onto an Au substrate were placed inside of a Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) and then contacted with an Au probe. Current-voltage (I-V) measurements were taken with and without electron beam illumination. Fitting to the curves, we estimate the doping density ($N_D \approx 10^{22.1 \pm 1.2}$ cm$^{-3}$) and built-in potential ($\phi_{bi} \approx 0.84 \pm 0.45$ eV). We then used these I-V measurements to estimate the diffusion time ($\tau$) of our samples and observed an exponential dependence of $\tau$ on sample size in the range of 350-550 nm.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated model generation and parameter estimation of building energy models using an ontology-based framework

This study presents a methodology for automated model generation and parameter estimation of building energy models using semantic modeling and Bayesian estimation. Semantic modeling techniques are used to represent the system components and their interactions, facilitating the automatic generation of a simulation model from dynamic component models. The proposed approach is applied to a case study of a ventilation system where a simulation model is generated, calibrated, and assessed through different performance metrics. These metrics demonstrate the accuracy and reliability of both model point estimates and probabilistic prediction intervals across all model outputs. Overall, the proposed methodology offers a systematic and automated approach to model development and calibration in building energy systems, with potential applications in building performance analysis, monitoring, and optimization.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

CFD-Enhanced Calibration of a Multihole Probe for Small Uncrewed Aircraft Systems

A robust calibration method with a 9-hole probe (9HP) for inertial wind vector measurements from a small uncrewed aircraft system (sUAS) is presented. Calibration accuracy is improved by using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to estimate corrections, such as those for test section blockage, that are generally applied in wind tunnel testing. A method for estimating experimental bias is presented to account for flow variations over the pressure taps as the 9HP is repositioned in the test section. Installation effects from flow over the airframe and upwash produced by the wings are estimated from CFD simulations of the entire airframe at the expected cruise speed. An initial CFD analysis has demonstrated a quantifiable linear relationship between the measured and actual angle of attack as measured from the relative wind frame. In conclusion, the objective of these additional steps is to increase the accuracy of 9HP calibration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Accurate energies for ππ* excited states via exchange scaling: the XS-CASSCF method

The state-averaged complete-active space self-consistent field method (SA-CASSCF) is a widely employed electronic structure method used for studying photochemistry and dynamics owing to its ability to provide a reliable description even of complicated cases while still retaining computational efficiency. However, SA-CASSCF suffers from one Achilles heel, related to the description of ionic ππ* excited states, whose energy is often overestimated by 1–2 eV. In light of this challenge, we present the XS-CASSCF method, a new approach based on the idea of exchange scaling (XS) that screens the involved energy terms to improve the excitation energies of singlet ionic ππ* states. First, we illustrate the power of the XS-CASSCF method using hexatriene and para-quinodimethane as examples, showing that it corrects the targeted ionic states while leaving the other states largely unaffected, giving root-mean-square errors (RMSE) below 0.2 eV for the four lowest states in both cases. Subsequently, XS-CASSCF vertical excitation energies are tested against theoretical best estimates for a set of 11 molecules and 56 excited states. XS-CASSCF performs exceptionally well for the ππ* states of hydrocarbons, reducing the RMSE over 21 excitation energies from 0.96 to 0.27 eV. In the challenging subset of molecules with heteroatoms and a larger number of ππ* and nπ* states, we find that improvements can also be obtained, albeit not as pronounced. We conclude with an outlook into more realistic molecular materials focusing on their singlet–triplet (S 1 /T 1 ) gaps, finding that significant improvements can be obtained along the whole range of S 1 /T 1 gaps studied, going from 0.1 eV to more than 1.5 eV. Owing to notable improvements across significant classes of molecules combined with its conceptual simplicity, we believe that XS-CASSCF is a promising addition to the electronic structure toolbox, serving both as a standalone electronic structure method and as a starting point for further correlated treatment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Demand Response Under Stochastic, Price-Dependent User Behavior

This letter focuses on price-based demand response (DR) implemented through dynamic adjustments of electricity prices. It extends existing DR models to a stochastic framework in which customer response is represented by price-dependent random variables, leveraging models and tools from the theory of stochastic optimization with decision-dependent distributions. The inherent epistemic uncertainty in the customers' responses renders open-loop, model-based DR strategies impractical. We propose a stochastic, feedback-based pricing strategy to compensate for estimation errors and uncertainty in customer response, establish theoretical results demonstrating the stability and near-optimality of the proposed approach, and validate its effectiveness through numerical simulations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Role of Snowmelt and Subsurface Heterogeneity in Headwater Hydrology of a Mountainous Catchment in Colorado: A Model‐Data Integration Approach

Mountainous headwater streams are sustained by both snowmelt‐driven streamflow and groundwater discharge in the Upper Colorado River Basin. However, predicting headwater stream discharge magnitude and peak flow timing is challenging in mountainous terrains, where snowmelt rates vary with vegetation type and elevation, and heterogeneous subsurface physical properties influence groundwater storage and its release. We used a model‐data integration approach to investigate the roles of snowmelt and subsurface structure in stream discharge and groundwater level. We ran an ensemble of 100 integrated surface‐subsurface hydrologic models for a mountainous headwater catchment near Crested Butte, Colorado, USA. We also evaluated and calibrated these models against observed data sets, including snow depth measurements using distributed temperature probes, stream discharge, and groundwater levels. Calibration with multiple data sources using neural density estimators has further constrained uncertainty in subsurface properties and snowmelt rates. Results indicated that observed slower snowmelt rates in evergreen forests delayed the peak flow and baseflow onset. In upstream areas with lower subsurface permeability, water was stored within the subsurface but was not released as interflow or shallow groundwater flow, and thereby not contributing to downstream streamflow during recession limb periods. Double peaks in groundwater occurred in areas with spatial subsurface heterogeneity, in our case due to the contrast between granodiorite and Mancos shale. These process‐based insights into groundwater and snowmelt dynamics in mountainous headwaters will help improve predictions of headwater hydrology.

Wang, Lijing [University of Connecticut, Storrs, C↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effect of causality constraints on Bayesian analyses of heavy-ion collisions

There have long been questions about the limits to the validity of relativistic fluid dynamics and whether it is being used outside its regime of validity in modern simulations of relativistic heavy-ion collisions. An important new tool for answering this question is a causality analysis in the nonlinear regime—if the solutions of the evolution equations do not respect relativistic causality, then they are not a faithful representation of the underlying relativistic theory (in this case, quantum chromodynamics). Using this nonlinear criterion, it has recently been shown that hydrodynamics is indeed being used outside its regime of validity in simulations, at least sometimes. Here we explore the phenomenological implications, particularly the quantitative effects of demanding limits on acausality in modern Bayesian parameter estimation. We find that, while typically only a small fraction of the system's energy is initially in an acausal regime, placing strict limits on the allowed energy fraction significantly changes the preferred properties of the initial condition, which in turn alters the extracted medium properties such as bulk viscosity, where large values are no longer favored. Furthermore, these findings highlight the importance of developing better theoretical descriptions of the early-time, out-of-equilibrium dynamics of relativistic heavy-ion collisions.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2025

Large-signal Stability Analysis of Grid-forming Inverters with Equivalent-circuit Models

Here, this paper proposes an energy function-based direct method for large-signal stability assessment of grid-forming (GFM) inverters leveraging an equivalent-circuit representation of all involved control- and physical-layer dynamics. Three different primary controls, a standard inner-current outer-voltage cascaded-control architecture, output LCL filter, and reference-current saturation limiting are featured in the modeling and analysis framework. A composite energy function for the GFM inverter is obtained by summing up individual energy contributions gleaned from the circuit representation. The approach can readily be generalized to different primary controls, output-filter arrangements, and current limiters since it is based on a circuit-theoretic foundation. Numerical simulations validate the efficacy of the approach in estimating the critical clearing time following a large-signal disturbance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating ionization states and continuum lowering from ab initio path integral Monte Carlo simulations for warm dense hydrogen

Warm dense matter (WDM) is an active field of research, with applications ranging from astrophysics to inertial confinement fusion. Ionization degree and continuum lowering are important quantities to understand how materials behave under these conditions, but can be difficult to diagnose since experimental campaigns are limited and often require model-dependent analysis. This is especially true for hydrogen, which has a comparably low scattering cross section, making high-quality data particularly difficult to obtain. Consequently, building equation of state tables often relies on simulations in combination with untested approximations to extract properties from experiments. Here, we investigate an approach for extracting the ionization potential depression and ionization degree—quantities which are otherwise not directly accessible from the physical model—from first-principles path integral Monte Carlo (PIMC) simulations utilizing a chemical model. In contrast to experimental measurements, where noise and nonequilibrium effects add to the uncertainty of the inferred parameters, PIMC simulations provide a clean signal with well-defined thermodynamic conditions. Comparisons against commonly used models show a qualitative agreement, but we find deviations primarily for the high-density and high-temperature cases. We also demonstrate the decreasing sensitivity of the dynamic structure factor with respect to both ionization and continuum lowering for increasing scattering angles in x-ray Thomson scattering experiments. Our work has important implications for the design of future experiments, but also offers qualitative understanding of structure factors and the imaginary-time correlation function obtained from first-principles quantum Monte Carlo simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗