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At least 235 records · Page 13

Carbon and Water Dynamics in the Sandhills of South Carolina

An investigation was conducted to better understand the relationship between the carbon and precipitation cycles in the atmosphere. The carbon cycle is an important biogeochemical process in which a plant takes in carbon during photosynthesis and releases it during respiration. Why plants take or release carbon can be explained by various environmental conditions throughout the year. By using eddy-covariance measurements of rainfall and evaporation, we can describe the carbon cycle in the sandhills of South Carolina. We examine those measurements in comparison to soil water over the course of five years at an eddy covariance tower, located in a long leaf pine forest at the Savannah River Site in Aiken, South Carolina. The study illustrates how ecosystem fluxes respond to rainfall events and drought periods on site, specifically the lowest and highest moisture periods through the year. Additionally, this study also explores how resistant the store of carbon is during a drought and its resilience when rains return.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Contrasting Carbon–Water–Energy Dynamics in Perennial and Annual Bioenergy Agroecosystems Using Eddy Covariance and Interpretable Machine Learning

Understanding how agroecosystems respond to environmental variability is fundamental to predicting productivity and sustainability under a changing climate. We analyzed 55 site-years of high-frequency eddy covariance observations from five agroecosystems—two perennial grasses (miscanthus and switchgrass), two annual rotation systems (maize–soybean and sorghum–soybean), and a restored native prairie—to examine ecosystem-scale carbon, water, and energy fluxes. Using an interpretable machine-learning framework with regression tree ensembles, Shapley Additive Explanations, and Accumulated Local Effects, we quantified how environmental and temporal factors regulate gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), water-use efficiency, and the Bowen ratio. Perennials exhibited stronger physiological buffering and maintained fluxes across a broader range of temperature and moisture conditions, reflecting deeper rooting and persistent canopy cover. Annuals, in contrast, showed greater short-term variability and stronger coupling to atmospheric demand, with GPP and ET declining rapidly under low humidity or soil moisture. Differences in temperature sensitivity of Bowen ratio further revealed that perennials sustained proportionally greater sensible heat flux under cool conditions, whereas annuals exhibited constrained energy exchange when evaporative demand was low. Together, these results demonstrate that crop life cycle and canopy structure are fundamental determinants of ecosystem-scale carbon–water–energy coupling. By integrating long-term flux observations with interpretable machine learning, this study identifies the environmental drivers that shape agroecosystem function and highlights how conversion from annual to perennial feedstocks can enhance climatic resilience and alter land–atmosphere energy feedbacks. These findings provide a data-driven basis for improving crop and Earth-system models and for guiding bioenergy landscape design under future climate scenarios.

Accumulated Local Effects↗

Save or spend? Diverging water‐use strategies of grasses and encroaching clonal shrubs

Abstract Shrub encroachment is one of the primary threats to mesic grasslands around the world. This dramatic shift in plant cover has the potential to alter ecosystem‐scale water budgets and responses to novel rainfall regimes. Understanding divergent water‐use strategies among encroaching shrubs and the grasses they replace is critical for predicting shifts in ecosystem‐scale water dynamics as a result of shrub encroachment, particularly if drought events become more frequent and/or severe in the future. In this study, we assessed how water‐use traits of a rapidly encroaching clonal shrub (Cornus drummondii) and a dominant C 4 grass (Andropogon gerardii) impact responses to changes in water availability in tallgrass prairie. We assessed intra‐annual change in depth of water uptake, turgor loss point and stomatal regulation in each species. Sampling took place at Konza Prairie Biological Station (northeastern KS, USA) during the 2021 and 2022 growing seasons. Cornus drummondiishifted from shallow to deep soil water sources across the 2021 and 2022 growing seasons. This plasticity in depth of water uptake facilitated a ‘wasteful’ water‐use strategy inC. drummondii, where stomatal conductance and transpiration rates continued to increase even when no further gain in photosynthetic rate occurred.A. gerardiiphotosynthetic rates and stomatal conductance were more variable through time and were more responsive to changes in leaf water potential thanC. drummondii. However, intra‐annual adjustment of turgor loss point was more pronounced inC. drummondii(Δπ TLP = −0.48 MPa ± 0.15 SD) than inA. gerardii(Δπ TLP = −0.29 MPa ± 0.19 SD). Synthesis. These results suggest thatC. drummondiiis highly resilient to changes in water availability in surface soils and will likely remain unaffected by future droughts unless they are severe enough to reduce the availability of deep soil water. Given that clonal shrubs are key invaders of grasslands world‐wide, increased leaf‐level water loss is expected to accelerate ecosystem‐level drying as clonal shrub encroachment proceeds in mesic grasslands.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Three-Dimensional Grid Visualization for Planning Activities: A Dubai Case Study

National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), in collaboration with the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) and Infra-X, has undertaken the Energy Visualization Analysis Project. The aim of this project is to enhance analytical and 3D visualization capabilities for distribution network planning and renewable energy integration. As modern grid continues to evolve with large-scale solar PV deployment and emerging distributed energy resources (DERs), the ability to effectively analyze, visualize, and communicate complex grid behaviors has become increasingly critical. The project focuses on developing empirical use cases based on real distribution feeder data and engineering workflows, ensuring the outcomes are directly aligned with operational environment. Through time-series power flow simulations and nodal hosting capacity analysis, the study quantifies the impacts of high PV penetration on voltage and thermal limits within representative 11 kV feeders. These analyses identify specific nodes and conditions where DER integration challenges arise. Furthermore, a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) optimization algorithm was applied to determine the optimal size and placement of storage systems that can mitigate network constraints and enhance hosting capacity. The comparative results between base-case and BESS-augmented scenarios clearly demonstrate improvements in network stability and load management efficiency. In parallel, the NLR team developed an immersive 3D visualization framework, enabling interactive exploration of grid simulations using commodity head-mounted display (HMD) systems. This framework transforms conventional 2D simulation data into spatially intuitive visual environments - allowing engineers to analyze feeder conditions, PV hosting potential, and BESS effects in real time. This report represents the first foundational phase in establishing a visualization-driven analytical ecosystem. It provides a methodological foundation for data integration, visualization architecture, and simulation-based decision support, paving the way for large-scale adoption of immersive visualization across DEWA's Smart Grid Initiative, R&D activities, and future network resilience studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Impacts of humic substances, elevated temperature, and UVB radiation on bacterial communities of the marine sponge Chondrilla sp

Abstract Sponges are abundant components of coral reefs known for their filtration capabilities and intricate interactions with microbes. They play a crucial role in maintaining the ecological balance of coral reefs. Humic substances (HS) affect bacterial communities across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems. However, the specific effects of HS on sponge-associated microbial symbionts have largely been neglected. Here, we used a randomized-controlled microcosm setup to investigate the independent and interactive effects of HS, elevated temperature, and UVB radiation on bacterial communities associated with the sponge Chondrilla sp. Our results indicated the presence of a core bacterial community consisting of relatively abundant members, apparently resilient to the tested environmental perturbations, alongside a variable bacterial community. Elevated temperature positively affected the relative abundances of ASVs related to Planctomycetales and members of the families Pseudohongiellaceae and Hyphomonadaceae. HS increased the relative abundances of several ASVs potentially involved in recalcitrant organic matter degradation (e.g., the BD2-11 terrestrial group, Saccharimonadales, and SAR202 clade). There was no significant independent effect of UVB and there were no significant interactive effects of HS, heat, and UVB on bacterial diversity and composition. The significant, independent impact of HS on the composition of sponge bacterial communities suggests that alterations to HS inputs may have cascading effects on adjacent marine ecosystems.

Stuij, Tamara M. (ORCID:0000000152170798)↗

Environmental Co‐Benefits of Maintaining Native Vegetation With Solar Photovoltaic Infrastructure

Abstract Co‐locating solar photovoltaics with vegetation could provide a sustainable solution to meeting growing food and energy demands. However, studies quantifying multiple co‐benefits resulting from maintaining vegetation at utility‐scale solar power plants are limited. We monitored the microclimate, soil moisture, panel temperature, electricity generation and soil properties at a utility‐scale solar facility in a continental climate with different site management practices. The compounding effect of photovoltaic arrays and vegetation may homogenize soil moisture distribution and provide greater soil temperature buffer against extreme temperatures. The vegetated solar areas had significantly higher soil moisture, carbon, and other nutrients compared to bare solar areas. Agrivoltaics in agricultural areas with carbon debt can be an effective climate mitigation strategy along with revitalizing agricultural soils, generating income streams from fallow land, and providing pollinator habitats. However, the benefits of vegetation cooling effects on electricity generation are rather site‐specific and depend on the background climate and soil properties. Overall, our findings provide foundational data for site preservation along with targeting site‐specific co‐benefits, and for developing climate resilient and resource conserving agrivoltaic systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Increased salinity decreases annual gross primary productivity at a Northern California brackish tidal marsh

Tidal marshes sequester 11.4–87.0 Tg C yr –1 globally, but climate change impacts can threaten the carbon capture potential of these ecosystems. Tidal marshes occur across a wide range of salinity, with brackish marshes (0.5–18 ppt (parts per thousand)) dominating global tidal marsh extents. A diverse mix of freshwater- and saltwater-tolerant plant and microbial communities has led researchers to predict that carbon cycling in brackish wetlands may be less sensitive to changes in salinity than fresh- or saltwater wetlands. Rush Ranch, a well-monitored brackish tidal wetland of the San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, experiences highly variable annual salinity regimes. Within a five-year period (2014–2018), Rush Ranch experienced particularly extreme drought-induced salinization during the 2014 and 2015 growing seasons. During drought years, tidal channel salinity rose from a 15 year baseline of 4.7 ppt to growing season peaks of 10.3 ppt and 12.5 ppt. Continuous eddy covariance data from 2014 to 2018 demonstrate that during drought summers, gross primary productivity (GPP) decreased by 24%, whereas ecosystem respiration remained similar among all five years. Stepwise linear regression revealed that salinity, not air temperature or tidal height, was the dominant driver of annual GPP. A random forest model trained to predict GPP based on environmental data from low salinity years (i.e. naive to salinization) significantly over predicted GPP in drought years. When growing season salinities were doubled, annual estimates of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 decreased by up to 30%. These results provide ecosystem-scale evidence that increased salinity influences CO 2 fluxes dominantly through reductions in GPP. This relationship provides a starting point for incorporating the effect of changes in salinity in wetland carbon models, which could improve wetland carbon forecasting and management for climate resilience.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Restoring Historic Forest Disturbance Frequency Would Partially Mitigate Droughts in the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains

Forest thinning and prescribed fire are expected to improve the climate resilience and water security of forests in the western U.S., but few studies have directly modeled the hydrological effects of multi-decadal landscape-scale forest disturbance. By updating a distributed process-based hydrological model (DHSVM) with vegetation maps from a distributed forest ecosystem model (LANDIS-II), we simulate the water resource impacts of forest management scenarios targeting partial or full restoration of the pre-colonial disturbance return interval in the central Sierra Nevada mountains. In a fully restored disturbance regime that includes fire, thinning, and insect mortality, reservoir inflow increases by 4%–9% total and 8%–14% in dry years. At sub-watershed scales (10–100 km2), thinning dense forests can increase streamflow by >20% in dry years. In a thinner forest, increased understory transpiration compensates for decreased overstory transpiration. Consequentially, 73% of streamflow gains are attributable to decreased overstory rain and snow interception loss. Thinner forests can increase headwater peak flows, but reservoir-scale peak flows are almost exclusively influenced by climate. Uncertainty in future precipitation causes high uncertainty in future water yield, but the additional water yield attributable to forest disturbance is about five times less sensitive to annual precipitation uncertainty. This partial decoupling of the streamflow disturbance response from annual precipitation makes disturbance especially valuable for water supply during dry years. Our study can increase confidence in the water resource benefits of restoring historic forest disturbance frequencies in the central Sierra Nevada mountains, and our modeling framework is widely applicable to other forested mountain landscapes.

Boardman, Eli N. [University of Nevada, Reno, NV (↗

Defining a Global Lunar Position, Navigation, and Timing System

As NASA seeks to fulfill its mission of extending humanity’s reach through exploration as delineated in the Moon to Mars Strategy and Objectives Development and the Moon to Mars Architecture Definition Document, accurate and timely position, navigation, and timing (PNT) services are critical in the architecture, identifying a need to expand a PNT capability to the full lunar proximity service volume. This is echoed in the White House Office of Science, Technology, and Policy Cislunar Science and Technology Strategy, which pinpoints the fundamental need for PNT infrastructure to enable and sustain a vibrant cislunar ecosystem. While the Human Lunar Return segment seeks commercial services to provide a PNT service over a South Pole service volume for a limited period per Earth day, meeting the Sustained Lunar Evolution segment requires a Lunar Navigation System (LNS) focused on delivery of precise and resilient PNT services across the lunar globe and near-Moon space. This presentation describes the pre-Phase A system concept for an orbital constellation, the requisite lunar surface-based in-situ monitor and control segment, and an Earth control segment to provide lunar PNT services out to 200km altitude above the surface. The LNS leverages the foundational efforts on lunar reference system components such as the Lunar Geodetic System, Lunar Time System, and lunar ephemeris and orientation critical to safe, accurate, and seamless navigation.

navigation↗

Scaling Equitable Finance

Driven by dramatic declines in up-front cost, the U.S. solar photovoltaics (PV) industry has taken off over the past decade, growing from 1 gigawatt of installed capacity in 2009 to 89 gigawatts in 2020—or enough capacity to power roughly 19 million homes. The industry is expected to double in size over just the next 5 years.1 Much of the growth has been driven by large, utility-scale projects that can produce 5 mega- watts or more of power—enough to power at least 1,000 homes. The cost of electricity produced by these projects has decreased by more than 70 percent since 2010. As of Q3 2020, development costs of large, util- ity-scale solar PV power plants were under $1 per watt, down by more than 70 percent from 2010.2 A robust array of investors has come forward to efficiently deliver capital to these kinds of utility-scale projects including large banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and others. But low- and moderate-income communities, including communities of color, are at risk of being left behind in the transition to clean energy. Mission- driven solar project developers and financial institu- tions have been working alongside energy justice advocates to open up solar access for these communi- ties, using strategies ranging from community solar, to solar installations on affordable multifamily housing, to distributed solar and storage programs, and more. Their goals go beyond simply generating more green energy to advancing social equity by: • empowering communities to control their energy future • stabilizing energy prices, saving money, and build- ing wealth for low-income families • creating quality jobs • improving health by reducing pollution • providing energy resilience for vulnerable communities Mission-driven actors are successfully deploying a wide variety of strategies to meet these goals, from helping low-income homeowners get solar—and some- times battery storage, to developing solar projects serv- ing affordable rental housing and community facilities, to building larger “shared solar” projects to which households from across the community can subscribe. However, the financing ecosystem does not work nearly as well for these “mission driven” solar proj- ects as it does for utility-scale projects. For home rooftop solar, even if low-income consumers have a home and suitable roof, they may fail to qualify for federal tax incentives, lack adequate credit to qualify for a loan—or the mission-driven lenders seeking to serve them may not be adequately capitalized to make long-term loans. For mission-driven commercial or community-scale projects, assembling nearly every component of the project capital stack—whether bridging early-stage costs, attracting tax credit equity investors, securing long-term debt, or coming up with sponsor equity and filling gaps—can present challenges. A variety of obstacles contribute to the scarcity of financing for low-income solar, including small project sizes, lack of developer balance sheet capacity, both real and perceived issues with credit risk, elevated technical assistance needs, and greater subsidy requirements to pursue goals such as deep energy affordability, climate resilience, or job creation. Still other obstacles are regulatory: for example, not all states allow community solar projects or Power Purchase Agreements, common strategies used for providing low-income solar—and the potential for regulations to shift over time creates risks that mission-driven projects can ill afford. This report synthesizes information garnered from 47 key informant interviews, four focus group discus- sions involving 60 stakeholders, and a review of the substantial existing literature on low-income solar finance to assess the current landscape of mission- driven solar development in the United States, examine the roles that community-based financial institutions could play, and recommend public invest- ments and policy changes that could help to scale the provision of equitable solar finance. Key recommen- dations for policymakers and funders in the renew- able energy and community development fields that emerge from this process include the following: • Help to capitalize and support community-based lenders to provide flexible, low-cost, and long- term financing to mission-driven solar projects— including providing guarantees or other forms of credit enhancement. • Provide federal support for equitable solar, including a grant-in-lieu-of-credits option for the Investment Tax Credit to improve access to this critical government subsidy. • Develop pools of government and philanthropic support that can complement financing from community-based lenders to complete the capi- tal stack for mission-driven projects, as well as to support education and technical assistance to both consumers and potential project sponsors. • Create a national Renewable Energy Credits pro- gram that includes social equity targets to provide a baseline of support for clean energy generation. • Change utility regulations to remove barriers to low-income solar projects; lower permitting costs; provide greater certainty for developers, consumers and owners; and measure progress toward equity in renewable energy policy implementation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Stakeholder analysis for designing an urban air quality data governance ecosystem in smart cities

Cities, the world over, are fuelling economic growth. At the same time, rapid urbanization is a root cause of serious environmental damage. Recent WHO global air pollution guidelines highlight air pollution as a critical environmental threat along with climate change. To address these threats, smart cities and clean air programs are on a rise. In smart cities, data and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) are major drivers of city transformations. The 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT), big data, artificial intelligence (AI), and cloud computing have the potential to accelerate these transformations toward urban resilience. However, the success of smart cities and clean air programs depends on cohesive multi-sector stakeholder contributions. This study conducted interdisciplinary participative stakeholder analysis to understand the data, and sectorial challenges, to outline the technological opportunities to facilitate clean air programs in Indian smart cities. The research highlights gaps due to siloed stakeholder operations, lack of data calibration, non-alignment of smart city and air quality management services, non-availability of health exposure data, and difficulty in translating scientific data into implementable actions. Stakeholders expressed potential ‘fit for the purpose’ use of IoT devices, satellites, smartphones, and mobility data augmented by AI methods in bridging these gaps. In conclusion, the analysis points toward a need to develop an easily accessible and ubiquitous urban data governance ecosystem enabling seamless cross-sector data exchanges to build trusting relationships among the stakeholders across the air quality management value chain.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Securing The Future: 2026 Manufacturing & Critical Infrastructure Threat Landscape

This report outlines the current state of manufacturing weaknesses introduced by the complexities of modern environments, including cloud services and Internet of Things (IoT) devices, with particular attention paid to the unique vulnerabilities encountered by SMMs. It also highlights CyManII’s strategic initiatives and collaborative solutions to mitigate these risks and strengthen the cybersecurity posture of the manufacturing ecosystem. Utilizing data from 2025 to inform forward-looking mitigation strategies, this report provides manufacturers with a clear understanding of both current and emerging cybersecurity threats, as well as practical opportunities to strengthen their cyber ecosystems. The following sections detail key vulnerabilities and threat vectors, along with actionable mitigation strategies, many of which have been developed or piloted through CyManII-led efforts. A thorough understanding of these risks and mitigation strategies is essential for manufacturers seeking to strengthen the security and resilience of their manufacturing operations.

3D Printing↗

Pathways to a Sustainable Aviation Ecosystem: Modeling Energy Generation at Airports

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has proven expertise in analyzing and visualizing complex energy landscapes in support of bold energy goals - from renewable energy resolutions in large metropolitan areas to incremental changes in remote communities. Now, NREL is extending those same capabilities to airports of all sizes, creating actionable insights for the aviation sector as it works to become more sustainable, resilient, and economical.

airport↗

Structural complexity and primary production resistance are coupled in a temperate forest

The capacity of forests to resist structural change and retain material legacies–the biotic and abiotic resources that persist through disturbance–is crucial to sustaining ecosystem function after disturbance. However, the role of forest structure as both a material legacy and feature supporting carbon (C) cycling stability following disturbance has not been widely investigated. We used a large-scale disturbance manipulation to ask whether legacies of lidar-derived canopy structures drive 3-year primary production responses to disturbance. As part of the Forest Resilience Threshold Experiment (FoRTE) in northern Michigan, USA we simulated phloem-disrupting disturbances producing a range of severities and affecting canopy trees of different sizes. We quantified the legacies of forest structure using two approaches: one measuring the change in structure and primary production from pre-to post-disturbance and the second estimating resistance as log transformed ratios of control and treatment values. We found that total aboveground wood net primary production (ANPP w ) was similar across disturbance severities as legacy trees rapidly increased rates of primary production. Experiment-wide, the disturbance had limited effects on change in mean structural complexity values; however, high variance underscored large differences in the magnitude and direction of complexity's response at the plot-scale. Plot-scale structural complexity, but not vegetation area index (VAI), resistance strongly predicted ANPP w resistance while temporal VAI and structural complexity changes did not. We conclude that the presence of material legacies in the form of forest structure may affect primary production stability following disturbance and that how legacies are quantified may affect the interpretation of disturbance response.

lidar—remote sensing↗

Carbon Monitoring and Above Ground Biomass Trends: Anchor Forest Opportunities for Tribal, Private and Federal Relationships

There are more than 300 million hectares of forested land whithin the conterminious United States essential to sustaining the myriad social/cultural, economic, and ecologic benefits society enjoys from these lands. Nationwide, millions of forested hectares, both private and public, are disappearing functionally and physically throguh serve wildfire fire and land coversion. On many of these lands, management, centered on fire supression, has led to reductions in forest resilience to wildfire. Lands, overstocked with accumulated fuel and faced with a changing climate, are expected to continue this legacy of fire and deteriorating health. A paradigm shift is needed to face the challenges confronting forests and enhance collaborative efforts across multiple foret ownerships. Our ability to leverage emerging technologies and pair them with the knowledge of indigenous peoples presents new opportunities for success. The objectives of this study were to 1) assess the Anchor Forest concept as a framework to leverage collaborative motivations and leadership by indigenous peoples (Tribes) in eastern Washington State to improve forest ecosystem health across legal and political boundaries, 'cross-boundary' management, and 2) demonstrate how the NASA carbon monitoring system (CMS) mapping of products of regional forestland above ground biomass (AGB) density and temporal trends can provide information that supports decisionmakers in their efforts to collaboratively approach improving forest health conditions through management activities.

Tribes; Anchor Forests; Forest Resilience; Collabo↗

Residential Vehicle-to-Home Backup Power Capabilities: Key Findings from a ComEd Beneficial Electrification R&D Pilot

This report summarizes key findings from a collaborative technical study of residential, non-grid-tied vehicle-to-home (V2H) backup power systems in Commonwealth Edison’s (ComEd’s) service territory. The work integrates (1) a feeder-level technoeconomic analysis (TEA) using historical outage-event data and simulated electric-vehicle (EV) driving/charging profiles to estimate potential reliability and customer interruption-cost impacts under V2H and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) adoption scenarios; (2) controlled laboratory performance testing of a representative V2H backup ecosystem to characterize transfer-to-backup behavior, sustained power delivery, efficiency trends, and repeatable reliability limitations; and (3) a cybersecurity assessment aligned with NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 2.0 and ISO/SAE 21434 to evaluate interface-level risk drivers and identify program-relevant mitigations. Results indicate that V2H can provide measurable resilience value, but outcomes are strongly context dependent on outage patterns and the share of events that are “V2H-applicable.” Typical transfer-to-backup behavior clustered on the order of minutes, but rare long-delay edge cases were observed (including an event approaching 30 minutes) and should be treated as a reliability risk. High-power testing showed that peak-rated output is not necessarily continuously deliverable; stable operation may require operation below nameplate ratings and attention to thermal and installation constraints. The cybersecurity assessment highlights a broad attack surface spanning commissioning, home networks, embedded services, and cloud/OTA pathways, motivating minimum controls for secure onboarding, signed updates, patch cadence, and coordinated vulnerability response for any scaled deployment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Fairfax County Urban Development: Identifying Urban Heat Mitigation Strategies for Climate Adaptation Planning in Fairfax County, Virginia

Extreme high temperatures lead to increased instances of cardiovascular disease, pulmonary disease, and even death, as well as increased energy consumption and infrastructure costs. People in urbanized areas experience higher temperatures than rural areas due to diminished vegetation and increased impervious surfaces which absorb and radiate heat. Fairfax County, Virginia has embarked on Resilient Fairfax, a program aimed at addressing climate adaptation and resilience. The DEVELOP team partnered with the Fairfax County Office of Environmental and Energy Coordination (OEEC) to assess the extent of the urban heat island effect on the county and its most vulnerable populations. The team used data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), as well as the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) for the years 2013 to 2021 and found that the hottest spots were in densely urbanized areas, with temperatures as much as 47°F above that of undeveloped reference areas. The team used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) urban cooling model and determined that areas with higher tree canopy cover had greater heat mitigation capacity. Estimates from the InVEST model showed that a 4.5% increase in canopy cover across the county could result in a temperature reduction of up to 2.4°F in some areas. The results will allow partners to assess heat distribution across Fairfax County and implement effective mitigation strategies, including locating prime locations for cooling centers and increasing canopy cover.

W. Pierce Holloway↗

Warm-season net CO 2 uptake outweighs cold-season emissions over Alaskan North Slope tundra under current and RCP8.5 climate

Abstract Arctic warming has increased vegetation growth and soil respiration during recent decades. The rate of Arctic warming will likely amplify over the 21st century. Previous studies have revealed that the most severe Arctic warming occurred during the cold season (September to May). The cold-season warming has posited significant CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere via respiration, possibly offsetting warm-season (June to August) net CO 2 uptake. However, prevailing Earth system land models poorly represent cold-season CO 2 emissions, making estimates of Arctic tundra annual CO 2 budgets highly uncertain. Here, we demonstrate that an improved version of the energy exascale Earth system model (E3SM) land model (ELMv1-ECA) captures the large amount of cold-season CO 2 emissions over Alaskan Arctic tundra as reported by two independent, observationally-constrained datasets. We found that the recent seven-decades warming trend of cold-season soil temperature is three times that of the warm-season. The climate sensitivity of warm-season net CO 2 uptake, however, is threefold higher than for the cold-season net CO 2 loss, mainly due to stronger plant resilience than microbial resilience to hydroclimatic extremes. Consequently, the modeled warm-season net CO 2 uptake has a larger positive trend (0.74 ± 0.14 gC m −2 yr −1 ) than that of cold-season CO 2 emissions (0.64 ± 0.11 gC m −2 yr −1 ) from 1950 to 2017, supported by enhanced plant nutrient uptake and increased light- and water-use efficiency. With continued warming and elevated CO 2 concentrations under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, the increasing rate of warm-season net CO 2 uptake is more than twice the rate of cold-season emissions (1.33 ± 0.32 gC m −2 yr −1 vs 0.50 ± 0.12 gC m −2 yr −1 ), making the modeled Alaskan Arctic tundra ecosystem a net CO 2 sink by 2100. However, other geomorphological and ecological disturbances (e.g. abrupt permafrost thaw, thermokarst development, landscape-scale hydrological changes, wildfire, and insects) that are not considered here might alter our conclusion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗