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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated System and Application Continuous Performance Monitoring and Analysis Capability

Scientific applications run on high-performance computing (HPC) systems are critical for many national security missions within Sandia and the NNSA complex. However, these applications often face performance degradation and even failures that are challenging to diagnose. To provide unprecedented insight into these issues, the HPC Development, HPC Systems, Computational Science, and Plasma Theory & Simulation departments at Sandia crafted and completed their FY21 ASC Level 2 milestone entitled "Integrated System and Application Continuous Performance Monitoring and Analysis Capability." The milestone created a novel integrated HPC system and application monitoring and analysis capability by extending Sandia's Kokkos application portability framework, Lightweight Distributed Metric Service (LDMS) monitoring tool, and scalable storage, analysis, and visualization pipeline. The extensions to Kokkos and LDMS enable collection and storage of application data during run time, as it is generated, with negligible overhead. This data is combined with HPC system data within the extended analysis pipeline to present relevant visualizations of derived system and application metrics that can be viewed at run time or post run. This new capability was evaluated using several week-long, 290-node runs of Sandia's ElectroMagnetic Plasma In Realistic Environments ( EMPIRE ) modeling and design tool and resulted in 1TB of application data and 50TB of system data. EMPIRE developers remarked this capability was incredibly helpful for quickly assessing application health and performance alongside system state. In short, this milestone work built the foundation for expansive HPC system and application data collection, storage, analysis, visualization, and feedback framework that will increase total scientific output of Sandia's HPC users.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated System and Application Continuous Performance Monitoring and Analysis Capability (Final)

Scientific applications run on high-performance computing (HPC) systems are critical for many national security missions within Sandia and the NNSA complex. However, these applications often face performance degradation and even failures that are challenging to diagnose. To provide unprecedented insight into these issues, the HPC Development, HPC Systems, Computational Science, and Plasma Theory & Simulation departments at Sandia crafted and completed their FY21 ASC Level 2 milestone entitled "Integrated System and Application Continuous Performance Monitoring and Analysis Capability." The milestone created a novel integrated HPC system and application monitoring and analysis capability by extending Sandia’s Kokkos application portability framework, Lightweight Distributed Metric Service (LDMS) monitoring tool, and scalable storage, analysis, and visualization pipeline. The extensions to Kokkos and LDMS enable collection and storage of application data during run time, as it is generated, with negligible overhead. This data is combined with HPC system data within the extended analysis pipeline to present relevant visualizations of derived system and application metrics that can be viewed at run time or post run. This new capability was evaluated using several week-long, 290-node runs of Sandia’s ElectroMagnetic Plasma In Realistic Environments (EMPIRE) modeling and design tool and resulted in 1TB of application data and 50TB of system data. EMPIRE developers remarked this capability was incredibly helpful for quickly assessing application health and performance alongside system state. In short, this milestone work built the foundation for expansive HPC system and application data collection, storage, analysis, visualization, and feedback framework that will increase total scientific output of Sandia’s HPC users.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Numerical Analysis of Blast Effects and Mitigation in the Far-Field from Small Explosions

Requirements for explosive safety are often given in terms of a “K-Factor”, correlating incident blast effects with the distance and TNT equivalent weight of an explosion. Traditionally, this is conducted using empirical correlations to experimental measurements (e.g., the Kingery–Bulmash equations). In the far-field, empirical verification of incident overpressure and impulse magnitudes can be difficult; extrapolations from data give expected values at reasonable standoff distances that sometimes are too small to measure on available equipment but are larger than some regulations require. The present paper describes the results of numerical hydrocode analysis to verify the expected incident overpressure and impulse from small hemispherical ground charges of TNT at these relatively large distances. Furthermore, the dynamic effect of incident blast waves on lightweight, modular mitigation barriers is studied to gauge their effectiveness at providing safety standard compliance.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ground Motion Models (GMMs) Improvements Using Earthquake Simulations on High Performance Computers

A computationally efficient simulation platform was developed that can provide representative synthetic ground motions from crustal earthquakes in the Stable Continental Regions of Central and Eastern US (CEUS), using 3D modeling and high-performance computing. The main objective was to use synthetic ground motion to provide constrains to refinements of exiting ergodic Ground Motion Models (GMMs), for large magnitude earthquakes and near-fault distances, for which these models are less reliable. Physics-based broadband (0-5Hz) ground motion simulations were used to estimate the near-fault ground motion amplitudes and within event and between-event variabilities associated with fault rupture characteristics. As part of a strategy for selecting a reginal velocity model and validation of developed rupture modeling technique, ground motions from the moment magnitude Mw5.0 November 7, 2016, Cushing Oklahoma, and Mw5.8 September 3, 2016, Pawnee Oklahoma earthquakes were simulated. In our simulations we used a 3D regional velocity model that was based on Saikia’s 1D velocity model. Saikia’s model demonstrated better performance in modelling high frequency regional wave propagation for CEUS region. The proposed 3D model includes lateral variations added to the 1D background model using the stochastic scheme of Pitarka and Mellors. Comparisons of the simulations with recordings of both earthquakes demonstrated the reliability of our deterministic simulation approach while emphasizing the importance of including small-scale variability in the regional velocity model needed to reproduce the observed high-frequency wave scattering effects. As part of validation analysis, comparisons with different GMMs for a Mw6.5 earthquake in the CESUS region resulted in a very good match between the simulated and empirical ground motion models. Initial investigations of within-event and between-event ground motion variabilities for Mw6.5 scenario earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, suggest that they are strongly related to spatial slip and slip rate variations, average rupture velocity, rupture area and rupture initiation location. For certain scenarios we found that the ground motion variability observed at near-fault distances (< 5 km) also persists at longer distances. Regardless of the rupture scenario, the simulated ground motion tends to fully saturate at short distances and for all periods. The near-fault saturation has to do with the attenuation of waves propagating along the fault and local rupture radiation pattern that also contribute to stronger ground motion variation at such distances. Analysis of effects of rupture initiation location suggest that the peak ground motion (PGV) and spectral acceleration (SA) can be quite variable due to rupture directivity effects. Such effects are stronger at periods longer than 1s. The effect of the 1D velocity models and surface topography on simulated ground motion were investigated by comparing three component synthetic seismograms computed at selected sites. Effect of surface topography was considered using the ratio between spectral accelerations simulated for two 1D models with flat surface topography and realistic model with surface topography. Overall, the topography slightly amplifies (by ~30%) the ground motion amplitude in the frequency range 1-3Hz. The effect of topography is more visible in the surface and coda waves portion of the seismograms.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Tutorial on Bayesian analysis of linear shock compression data

Gas gun and other shock compression experiments often produce shock wave velocity measurements that are linearly associated with particle velocity. Traditionally, this empirical relationship is quantified with a single Hugoniot curve that is estimated using least squares regression. However, for downstream modeling and simulation tasks, it is often more useful to have multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the data. We employ Bayesian uncertainty quantification methods as a framework for propagating measurement uncertainty through to model parameters and predictions. Specifically, this Tutorial shows how to sample multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the shock wave-particle velocity measurements in a two-step Bayesian approach. First, we obtain an analytical expression for the posterior distribution of the linear model parameters using Bayesian linear regression. Second, we propagate samples from the posterior distribution through the Rankine–Hugoniot equations to yield Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane. The procedure is demonstrated with publicly available data on argon, copper, and nickel, and compared against bootstrapping and linear regression. The Bayesian procedure is shown to be interpretable, computationally inexpensive, and less sensitive than an alternative bootstrapping approach to the removal of the point in the copper dataset that has the largest particle velocity. As a Tutorial on Bayesian methodology for the shock compression community, we provide several derivations and explanations that make this paper self-contained, and make all code and data available at github.com/llnl/BALSCD.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing Control Performance Between Simulation and Experiment using the Microreactor Automated Control System Testbed

In the advanced reactor domain, a flexible and scalable software/hardware infrastructure is crucial for integrating and validating various control technologies. This study used the Microreactor Automated Control System (MACS) hardware platform as a testbed. MACS was originally designed to mirror Idaho National Laboratory (INL)'s Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL), a 85-kW thermal fission microreactor. It features control drums for simulated reactivity control; lights that function as a surrogate reactor core, with the brightness being proportional to the reactor power; and light sensors that emulate neutron detectors. To transform MACS into a physical twin of MARVEL for evaluating control methods, the Control and Optimization Modular Modeling Application for Nuclear Deployment (COMMAND) software was employed. This software integrated the hardware with two models of the MARVEL core, based on Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP5-3D) and Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) models. The study aimed to demonstrate the gap between control theory and actual practice—a gap that often necessitates empirical adjustments such as control gain retuning, filters, time discretization, and integrator anti-windup measures. Controllers were developed based on increasingly complex simulations without hardware, starting from the base MARVEL model and then introducing actuator saturation constraints and sensor noise. The final control strategy was then tested using MACS, and a comparative performance analysis was conducted.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of new baseline models for U.S. medium office buildings based on commercial buildings energy consumption survey data

Building energy estimation for the building sector under various scenarios are needed for building energy regulation and policy making. This often starts with representative baselines (either empirical baseline or modeled baseline). Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) data is a widely used empirical baseline for U.S. commercial buildings, but none of the existing baseline model are developed to represent the CBECS data. This paper aims to develop new baseline models for the U.S. medium office buildings, which can produce modeled baselines consistent with the CBECS data. Here, we introduced the methodology to create baseline models and the criteria to evaluate the performance of baseline models. The methodology consists of three phases: (1) identification of model inputs, (2) model calibration, and (3) model validation with uncertainty analysis. The evaluation index is the coefficient of variation of the root-mean-square deviation (CV(RMSD)) of site energy use intensities (EUIs) between the modeled baseline and empirical baseline. Then 30 new baseline models for two vintages (pre- and post-1980) and 15 climate zones were created. The evaluation shows that the CV(RMSD) is lower than 0.05 for the modeled baselines produced by the new baseline models. As a comparison, the CV(RMSD) is higher than 0.1 for the existing modeled baselines generated by DOE Commercial Reference Building Models. Further analysis shows that the new baseline models are able to capture the uncertainties of the representative features of existing buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

EVALUATION OF HRA METHODOLOGIES FOR APPLICATION IN SDP WORK

This study critically evaluates human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies applicable to regulatory probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model, with a particular focus on their role in supporting the significance determination process (SDP) in nuclear safety assessment. Firstly, three widely utilized HRA methods – IDHEAS-ECA, SPAR-H, and ASEP/THERP – were qualitatively and quantitatively assessed. Qualitative assessments were conducted using attributes from the NEA/CSNI/R(2015)1 report, while quantitative evaluations employed regression and correlation analyses to compare predicted human error probabilities (HEPs) against empirical data. Results reveal distinct strengths, for example, IDHEAS-ECA’s robust predictive accuracy and K-HRA’s alignment with operational practices. In addition, dependency analysis and recovery analysis were critically evaluated. For dependency analysis, the methods’ handling of inter-task dependencies and their impact on HEPs were examined, while recovery analysis highlighted strategies for mitigating failure events. Furthermore, strategies were proposed to evaluate performance-shaping factors under conditions of reduced human performance, such as stress, fatigue, or cognitive overload, addressing specific challenges faced in SDP evaluations. Human errors from KINS’s operational performance information system event reports were evaluated as a case study. This study identifies gaps and provides actionable insights to ensure their validity and applicability in SDP HRA applications. This paper is a part of research conducted by KINS, and it should be noted that this result does not represent the regulatory position of KINS.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Harnessing Uncertainty through Functional Data Analysis in Gas Breakthrough Data

Detecting subsurface explosions from radionuclide gas migration through rock fractures is an effective way to identify nuclear activity. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has developed simulation methods, based on data from the 1962 Hardhat underground nuclear test, to predict gas breakthrough times at the surface. However, these methods rely on an imperfect understanding of the relationship between rock damage and fracture permeability. Our clinic project studies methods for predicting breakthrough curves that characterize total mass produced as a function of time, as well as quantifying the uncertainty associated with these predictions. The model that is currently employed to relate damage to permeability uses an empirically motivated power-law expression, with a range of parameter values that are compatible with the experimental Hardhat data. We develop emulators, built from functional data analysis techniques and trained on simulation data, that rapidly predict the gas breakthrough curve given a damage field and given the parameter values of the power-law equation. Using Bayesian regression, we address the problem of uncertainty quantification in our emulators. Finally, in order to test the robustness of the model, we further validate it on a damage field representing different physical conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Origins of Acid-Gas Stability Behavior in Zeolitic Imidazolate Frameworks: The Unique High Stability of ZIF-71

Zeolitic imidazolate frameworks (ZIFs) are promising materials for industrial process separations, but recent literature reports have highlighted their vulnerability to acid gases (e.g., SO 2 , CO 2 , NO 2 , H 2 S), often present in practical applications. While previous work has documented the widely varying stability behavior of many ZIFs under varying (humid and dry) acid gas environments, efforts to explain or correlate these experimental observations via empirical descriptors have not succeeded. A key observation is that ZIF-71 (RHO topology) is an extraordinarily stable ZIF material, retaining both structure and porosity under prolonged humid SO 2 exposure whereas many other well-known ZIFs with different linkers and topologies (such as ZIF-8) were shown to degrade. Through a combination of hybrid quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics (QM/MM) based methods and statistical mechanical models, we successfully explain this important experimental observation via atomistic investigations of the reaction mechanism. Our holistic approach reveals an ~9 times lower average defect formation rate in ZIF-71 RHO compared to ZIF-8 SOD, leading to the conclusion that the observed experimental stability of this material rises from kinetic effects. Moreover, our analysis reveals that differing stability of the two materials is determined by the distributions of acid gas molecules, which is difficult to capture using empirical descriptors. Furthermore, our results suggest wider applicability of the present approach, toward identifying tuned functional groups and topologies that move the acid gas distributions away from more reactive sites and thus allow enhanced kinetic stability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Unusual layer-by-layer growth of epitaxial oxide islands during Cu oxidation

Elucidating metal oxide growth mechanisms is essential for precisely designing and fabricating nanostructured oxides with broad applications in energy and electronics. However, current epitaxial oxide growth methods are based on macroscopic empirical knowledge, lacking fundamental guidance at the nanoscale. Using correlated in situ environmental transmission electron microscopy, statistically-validated quantitative analysis, and density functional theory calculations, we show epitaxial Cu 2 O nano-island growth on Cu is layer-by-layer along Cu 2 O(110) planes, regardless of substrate orientation, contradicting classical models that predict multi-layer growth parallel to substrate surfaces. Growth kinetics show cubic relationships with time, indicating individual oxide monolayers follow Frank-van der Merwe growth whereas oxide islands follow Stranski-Krastanov growth. Cu sources for island growth transition from step edges to bulk substrates during oxidation, contrasting with classical corrosion theories which assume subsurface sources predominate. Our results resolve alternative epitaxial island growth mechanisms, improving the understanding of oxidation dynamics critical for advanced manufacturing at the nanoscale.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Non-Gaussianity in the weak lensing correlation function likelihood – implications for cosmological parameter biases

ABSTRACT We study the significance of non-Gaussianity in the likelihood of weak lensing shear two-point correlation functions, detecting significantly non-zero skewness and kurtosis in 1D marginal distributions of shear two-point correlation functions in simulated weak lensing data. We examine the implications in the context of future surveys, in particular LSST, with derivations of how the non-Gaussianity scales with survey area. We show that there is no significant bias in 1D posteriors of Ωm and σ8 due to the non-Gaussian likelihood distributions of shear correlations functions using the mock data (100 deg2). We also present a systematic approach to constructing approximate multivariate likelihoods with 1D parametric functions by assuming independence or more flexible non-parametric multivariate methods after decorrelating the data points using principal component analysis (PCA). While the use of PCA does not modify the non-Gaussianity of the multivariate likelihood, we find empirically that the 1D marginal sampling distributions of the PCA components exhibit less skewness and kurtosis than the original shear correlation functions. Modelling the likelihood with marginal parametric functions based on the assumption of independence between PCA components thus gives a lower limit for the biases. We further demonstrate that the difference in cosmological parameter constraints between the multivariate Gaussian likelihood model and more complex non-Gaussian likelihood models would be even smaller for an LSST-like survey. In addition, the PCA approach automatically serves as a data compression method, enabling the retention of the majority of the cosmological information while reducing the dimensionality of the data vector by a factor of ∼5.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Validation and Verification for INL Modelica-based TEDS models Via Experimental Results

This report provides an overview on the verification and validation (V&V) of the Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) model developed in the Modelica process modeling ecosystem using experimental data. Model development has led to the creation of a dynamic process model of the experimental TEDS facility housed within the Energy Systems Laboratory (ESL) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The model was then used during the preconstruction phase of the experimental effort to inform experimental design (e.g., insulation requirements, bypass line placement, expected performance of components) and to test innovative control schemes prior to the initial operation. The TEDS model developed in Modelica includes the primary components of the TEDS experimental unit: a 200kW Chromalox heater; a single-tank packed-bed thermal energy storage system filled with 0.125-inch alumina (Al2O3) beads; an ethylene-glycol-to-Therminol-66 heat exchanger; system piping; five control valves; and all associated temperature, pressure, and volumetric flow sensors. Using the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) V&V methodologies, considered the gold standard in the engineering field, the model was verified using a combination of static analysis, spatial convergence, and regression tests. Then using dynamic time warping (DTW) initial runs to validate and tune the TEDS model versus the experiment were conducted. This tuning method was accomplished using the INL Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment (RAVEN) software package. Tuning is required to account for physical phenomena that are less understood within the empirical heat transfer correlations. Through the commencement of this work, a systems-level model of TEDS with associated control systems, sensors, piping diameters, and component capabilities has been created. This model was utilized in the pre-experimental phase to inform system design, insulation thicknesses, and potential control schemes to operate the system effectively and safely. Then, initial experimental startup and operational data were used to demonstrate the validation and tuning methodology. This process demonstrates the classical two-step approach of a model informing experimental design followed by the experiment validation and tuning the model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geospatial analysis of preterm and small-for-gestational age births in Washington D.C.

Background: This study is based on the recognition that adverse pregnancy outcomes significantly affect maternal and infant health, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. These outcomes are shaped by a complex interplay of individual-level factors—like maternal age and education—and community-level influences, including socio-economic status and access to healthcare. Understanding these determinants is crucial for developing effective public health strategies, especially for marginalized populations, by identifying high-risk areas and informing targeted interventions that address both individual and structural barriers. Methods: We utilized geospatial analysis to explore the association between individual- and community-level factors and adverse pregnancy outcomes, specifically preterm birth (PTB) and small-for-gestational-age (SGA) birthweight in Washington, D.C. We used Empirical Bayes smoothing methods to calculate rates of adverse birth outcomes from 2010 to 2018 at the U.S. Census tract–level. Spatial scan statistics were used to investigate if adverse birth outcomes clustered in specific areas. ANOVA tests were conducted for individual- and community-level factors within identified clusters. Results: Spatial analysis identified significant high-risk clusters for PTB and SGA infants primarily in southeastern Washington, D.C., particularly in Wards 7 and 8. Individuals residing within these clusters experienced a 47% increased risk of PTB (RR = 1.467) and a 56% increased risk of SGA (RR = 1.560) compared to those outside clusters. Space–time analysis revealed temporal variation, with PTB clusters persisting from 2011 to 2014 and SGA clusters extending through 2017. Compared to low-risk clusters, high-risk clusters had younger birthing individuals (mean age ~26.5 vs. ~33 years), lower maternal college degree attainment (~20% vs. ~80%), higher rates of late or no prenatal care (~16% vs. 11%), and increased prevalence of smoking and hypertension (all P < 0.001). Community-level indicators showed lower median household incomes ($\$40,000$ vs. ~$\$105,000$), greater poverty (~16% vs. ~7% below $\$10,000$/year), higher public assistance use (~32% vs. ~5%), and reduced healthcare access (greater distances to emergency and specialty care) in high-risk areas (all P < 0.001). Neighborhood deprivation indices were significantly elevated, commutes were longer, and population density was lower in these clusters. These findings highlight that adverse birth outcomes cluster in neighborhoods with pronounced socioeconomic and health disparities. Conclusion: High-risk birth clusters highlight intertwined factors: individual, socio-economic, and geographic. Addressing these requires comprehensive interventions focusing on social and structural determinants of health.

Birth outcomes↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Rupture Modeling of the M7.1, 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake

An important part of the simulation technique implemented in the strong motion prediction recipe developed in Japan, originally proposed by Irikura and Miyake (2011) is the earthquake rupture characterization that is based on established empirical scaling relationships between source parameters and seismic moment. These scaling relationships and rupture characterization are derived from recorded data and are tested by simulations. Recent analysis of results obtained with the Recipe for the 2016 M7.1 Kumamoto earthquake performed by several researchers, indicate that in order to reproduce near-fault long-period ground motions with permanent displacements, typical for earthquakes with surface rupturing, the recipe needs modifications. In particular, improvements are required in characterizing the rupture kinematics at shallow depths, above the seismogenic zone (Irikura et al., 2019). Modeling of rupture dynamics for recorded earthquakes, and numerical simulations for different rupture scenarios, provides physical constrains on slip evolution in time and space, which can be used in adjustments of empirical source scaling relationships for large crustal earthquakes. In this study we mainly focused on rupture dynamics modeling of the 2019 M7 Ridgecrest, California earthquake. The characterization of the kinematic rupture model derived from the dynamic rupture models of this earthquake can inform further refinements of rupture modeling proposed by the Recipe. Through different rupture scenarios we investigated potential relationships between characteristics of Long Period Ground Motion Generation Area (LMGA), used in the Recipe, and asperity depth and rupture initiation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Voltage-Based Strategies for Preventing Battery Degradation under Diverse Fast-Charging Conditions

Maintaining safe operating conditions is a key challenge for high-performance lithium-ion battery applications. The lithium-plating reaction remains a risk during charging, but limited studies consider the highly variable charging conditions possible in commercial cells. Here we combine pseudo-2D electrochemical modeling with data visualization methods to reveal important relationships between the measurable cell voltage and difficult-to-predict Li-plating onset criteria. An extensively validated model is used to compute Li plating for thousands of multistep charging conditions spanning diverse rates, temperatures, states-of-charge, and cell aging. Here we observe an empirical cell operating voltage limit below which plating does not occur across all conditions, and this limit varies with the battery state-of-charge and aging. A model sensitivity analysis also indicates that, when comparing two charging voltage profiles, the capacity difference at 4.0 V correlates well with the difference in the plating onset capacity. These results encourage simple strategies for Li-plating prevention that are complementary to existing battery controls.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Empirical Assessment of Interregional Coordination to Support Resource Adequacy [Slides]

This study examines where interregional transmission could most effectively support resource adequacy in the contiguous United States. We use hourly load, renewable generation, and real-time price data from 2016–2023 for 18 planning subregions to identify periods of elevated adequacy risk, defined as the top 100 annual hours of net load and wholesale prices in each region. We then measure the temporal coincidence of these peak periods between adjacent regions and compare price patterns to assess the potential for capacity sharing. Results show that NorthernGrid West, a winter-peaking region, has low coincidence of peak net load with its summer-peaking neighbors, indicating high potential for interregional support. In contrast, regions in the Northeast have highly coincident peak periods, suggesting limited adequacy benefits from additional transmission. Price-based analysis shows peak-hour differences in the Midwest and between ERCOT and neighboring regions, indicating potential economic benefits from increased transfers. The findings provide an empirical screening of where transmission may offer the greatest reliability benefits without adding new generation capacity.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Soil water percolation and nutrient fluxes as a function of topographical, seasonal and soil texture variation in Central Amazonia, Brazil

Abstract Understanding soil water dynamics and transport of nutrients is challenging in tropical rainforests due to the uniqueness of several properties related to soils, vegetation and seasonality that make relating patterns found in temperate environments to tropical sites difficult. We address the need for better edaphic characterization in tropical environments by investigating soil water percolation rates and chemistry across topographic, soil texture and seasonal gradients in a mature tropical rainforest in Central Amazonia, Brazil. We utilized a passive wick flux meter (e.g., drainage lysimeter) to directly measure real‐time percolation fluxes at 60‐cm depth, and to sample a suite of chemical species across plateau, slope and valley topographic positions. We found percolation flux volume and chemical exports generally increase with decreasing elevation and clay content, which was lowest in the valley. Daily percolation flux was observed to be 2.39 ± 0.44 in plateau, 3.01 ± 0.50 in slope and 6.16 ± 0.83 mm in valley. Most solutes were present in small amounts of <1 mg L −1 , such as PO₄ 3− , Fe 2+ /Fe 3+ and Mn 2+ ; however, NO 3 − concentrations were >20 mg L −1 , even exceeding 100 mg L −1 in the valley. Based on additional isotopic analysis, we speculate high NO 3 − concentrations are partially an artefact of root decomposition following installation of the flux meters. The empirical relationships we show among percolation volume and nutrient exports under varying topographies and soil textures can improve Earth System Model performance by better constraining ecohydrological relationships to nutrient fluxes, which can in‐turn better illuminate the important factors that govern their behaviour.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗