Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “energy estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Developing new pathways for energy and environmental decision-making in India: a review

Abstract India faces a dual challenge of economic development and responding to climate change. Although India’s per capita emissions are well below global average, the country is one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters. Indian policymakers and stakeholders require high-quality data and research to assess low-emissions, sustainable development strategies. Peer-reviewed literature is a key source of this information and also a key venue for conversation amongst research leaders. This paper examines the recent peer-reviewed literature on India’s 2030 and 2050 pathways. We conducted a systematic literature review to identify key quantitative national modeling studies. From the 34 studies identified, we synthesized scenario data to draw common conclusions and identify critical research gaps. The main focus was on examining the coverage and the state of information available on low-carbon pathways. Overall, we find a few scenarios that are potentially consistent with a 2070 net-zero goal, but more limited assessment of pathways to reach net-zero emissions before this date. Mitigation pathways with greater ambition are required across all energy sectors to ensure a smooth transition to net-zero emissions by or before 2070. The scenarios confirm that reducing emissions to below 2 GtCO 2 yr −1 by mid-century would necessitate significant transformations of the Indian energy sector, such as, a decrease in unabated coal power capacity, transportation modal shift, and industrial process switching. The assessment also finds substantial differences in final energy estimates reported across studies, particularly in transportation. The lack of consistency in, and transparency about underlying drivers, assumptions, and even outputs across studies points to the critical need for the sorts of coordinated, multi-model studies that have proven exceptionally valuable for decision makers in other major emitting countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Vehicle Technologies and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Research and Development Programs Benefits Assessment Report for 2020

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Offices (VTO and HFTO) support research and development of efficient and sustainable transportation technologies that will improve energy efficiency, minimize emissions, and enable America to use less petroleum. VTO and HFTO regularly revisit and update relevant research and development goals and areas of emphasis in response to the latest technological advancements and in alignment with current national priorities. As such, analyses of expected benefits resulting from VTO and HFTO investments and anticipated goal achievements are updated periodically and will be again for 2021 in the context of the latest national-level transportation decarbonization goals. The analysis in the present report is based on technical progress goals established in VTO and HFTO in the years immediately prior to and including 2020, and it summarizes the estimated energy and emissions benefits corresponding to achievement of those goals. The goals span research activities on batteries, electric drive technologies (EDT), combustion, lightweight materials, fuel cells, and hydrogen storage. The evaluation includes detailed analyses into the benefits of technology improvements on the U.S. light-duty (LD) vehicle fleet and separately on the U.S. medium- and heavy-duty (MDHD) vehicle fleet. This report summarizes the outcomes from each of these analyses both independently and in combination.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS2012

Spectrum and Morphology of the Two Brightest Milagro Sources in the Cygnus Region: MGRO J2019+37 and MGRO J2031+41

The Cygnus region is a very bright and complex portion of the TeV sky, host to unidentified sources and a diffuse excess with respect to conventional cosmic-ray propagation models. Two of the brightest TeV sources, MGRO J2019+37 and MGRO J2031+41, are analyzed using Milagro data with a new technique, and their emission is tested under two different spectral assumptions: a power law and a power law with an exponential cutoff. The new analysis technique is based on an energy estimator that uses the fraction of photomultiplier tubes in the observatory that detect the extensive air shower. The photon spectrum is measured in the range 1-100 TeV using the last three years of Milagro data (2005-2008), with the detector in its final configuration. An F-test indicates that MGRO J2019+37 is better fit by a power law with an exponential cutoff than by a simple power law. The best-fitting parameters for the power law with exponential cutoff model are a normalization at 10 TeV of 7(sup +5 sub −2) × 10(exp −10)/ s /sq m/ TeV, a spectral index of 2.0(sup +0.5 sub -10), and a cutoff energy of 29(sup +50 sub −16) TeV. MGRO J2031+41 shows no evidence of a cutoff. The best-fitting parameters for a power law are a normalization of 2.1(sup +0.6 sub −0.6) × 10(exp −10)/ s/sq m/ TeV and a spectral index of 3.22(sup +0.23 sub −0.18. The overall flux is subject to a approx.. 30% systematic uncertainty. The systematic uncertainty on the power-law indices is approx. 0.1. Both uncertainties have been verified with cosmic-ray data. A comparison with previous results from TeV J2032+4130, MGRO J2031+41, and MGRO J2019+37 is also presented.

BRIGHTEST↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mass Detection for Heavy-Duty Vehicles using Gaussian Belief Propagation

Predicting vehicle mass is critical to accurately estimate energy use and emissions of commercial trucks. However, data from vehicle telematics is often not at sufficient temporal resolution or accuracy for use in model-based detection methods. In this work, a new statistical mass prediction technique is described for heavy-duty vehicles that incorporates the use Gaussian Belief Propagation (GBP) for probabilistic inference. Similar to Bayesian inference models, the GBP model typically requires less labeled training data than other contemporary machine learning techniques. First, a factor graph is constructed, and a set of Gaussian belief nodes with associated means and variances are fitted to the training data. To better handle noisy input data, the GBP mass prediction model utilizes a k-nearest factors (kNF) algorithm for probabilistic inference on unseen testing data. The proposed method is compared with a classical weighted k-nearest neighbors (kNN) regressor. This statistical kNF-GBP model works even with low-quantity, low-quality initial training data, while being capable of realtime mass estimation. Unlike the kNN regressor, the GBP model produces a measure of uncertainty with its predictions. The proposed method is validated using curve-sampled driving data collected from multiple cloud-connected Class 8 regional haul diesel trucks. Both the kNN regressor and the kNF-GBP mass prediction model were able to predict payload mass with coefficients of determination above 0.97 with minimal data preprocessing.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Stabilizer Framework for the Contextual Subspace Variational Quantum Eigensolver and the Noncontextual Projection Ansatz

Quantum chemistry is a promising application for noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. However, quantum computers have thus far not succeeded in providing solutions to problems of real scientific significance, with algorithmic advances being necessary to fully utilize even the modest NISQ machines available today. We discuss a method of ground state energy estimation predicated on a partitioning of the molecular Hamiltonian into two parts: one that is noncontextual and can be solved classically, supplemented by a contextual component that yields quantum corrections obtained via a Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) routine. This approach has been termed Contextual Subspace VQE (CS-VQE); however, there are obstacles to overcome before it can be deployed on NISQ devices. The problem we address here is that of the ansatz, a parametrized quantum state over which we optimize during VQE; it is not initially clear how a splitting of the Hamiltonian should be reflected in the CS-VQE ansätze. We propose a “noncontextual projection” approach that is illuminated by a reformulation of CS-VQE in the stabilizer formalism. This defines an ansatz restriction from the full electronic structure problem to the contextual subspace and facilitates an implementation of CS-VQE that may be deployed on NISQ devices. We validate the noncontextual projection ansatz using a quantum simulator and demonstrate chemically precise ground state energy calculations for a suite of small molecules at a significant reduction in the required qubit count and circuit depth.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accurate Fe–He machine learning potential for studying He effects in BCC-Fe

Nanostructured Ferritic Alloys (NFAs) containing oxide nanoparticles are prospective advanced structural materials in future fusion reactors. Lacking fusion neutron sources with an adequate flux, modeling is critical to understand radiation damage in the NFAs, including helium effects. Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLPs) have been demonstrated to be capable of describing atomic interactions in chemically complex systems with comparable accuracy to density functional theory (DFT) but with much less computational costs. Hence, MLPs are chosen to study He bubble accumulation in chemically complex NFAs. As a preliminary step, we develop a Fe–He potential, based on ~10,000 atomic configurations. The developed MLP accurately predicts the bulk properties of BCC-Fe compared to DFT, including the lattice constant (2.832 Å), elastic constants (c 11 = 271 GPa, c 12 = 141, c 44 = 93), and phonon frequencies (maximum error < 3.5%). The MLP predicts He binding energies in He n V bubbles and He n clusters with a mean absolute error (MAE) of only ~70 meV, which is ~3 to ~5 times smaller than the MAE of binding energies estimated using empirical potentials. The MLP also accurately predicts the migration barrier of interstitial He (64 meV). Furthermore, the MLP correctly predicts the maximum number of He atoms (critical size) at which a He n V bubble (He n cluster) can kick-out a self-interstitial atom (SIA), forming a bigger He n V 2 bubble (He n V bubble). Subsequently, we use the MLP to perform molecular dynamics simulations to investigate the effect of temperature on the critical size of He n V bubbles and He n clusters. We find that the critical size decreases with increasing temperature — indicating that smaller bubbles and clusters can kick-out an SIA at higher temperatures, thereby escalating the He bubble growth. We report the current Fe–He MLP can be further developed to include all chemical interactions in NFAs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Beyond CCSD(T) Accuracy at Lower Scaling with Auxiliary Field Quantum Monte Carlo

We introduce a black-box auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo (AFQMC) approach to perform highly accurate electronic structure calculations using configuration interaction singles and doubles (CISD) trial states. This method consistently provides more accurate energy estimates than coupled cluster singles and doubles with perturbative triples (CCSD(T)), often regarded as the gold standard in quantum chemistry. This level of precision is achieved at a lower asymptotic computational cost, scaling as O(N 6 ) compared to the O(N 7 ) scaling of CCSD(T). Furthermore, we provide numerical evidence supporting these findings through results for challenging main group and transition metal-containing molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

In-Conduit Hydropower for Public Water Supply Systems: Development Challenges and Costs

Conduit hydropower leverages existing water infrastructure to provide energy solutions, though deployment has been slow. A 2022 US Department of Energy (DOE)–funded report led by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) summarizes a reconnaissance-level study of hydropower potential at national conduits (Kao et al., 2022). The report includes power and energy estimates across three major sectors of conduit hydropower potential: municipal, agricultural, and industrial. Water resources include public water supply systems (municipal and industrial), irrigation canal systems (agricultural), thermoelectric cooling systems (industrial), and wastewater systems (municipal and industrial). In total, 1.41 GW of power potential was estimated nationwide. Subsequently, DOE has funded ORNL through the Conduit Hydropower Engineering, Evaluation, and Technology Acceleration project (CHEETA) to improve deployment potential for conduit hydropower. Work thus far has focused on “in-conduit” hydropower (ICH)—or “in-pipe” hydropower—for public water supply systems, though the project is planning to cover conduit hydropower more broadly. The timeline of ORNL’s conduit hydropower related research and development (R&D) is shown in Figure 1. The results of CHEETA should benefit the hydropower industry by providing insights into costs, barriers, and other considerations that impact project development. The hydropower industry and municipal/industrial conduit stakeholders will use the output to inform development decisions and advance low-impact hydropower growth in the US.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simplified calculation of the area specific impedance for solid-state battery design

Simplified algebraic area specific impedance (ASI) correlations have been developed for solid-state composite battery electrodes made of a single ion conducting electrolyte, conductive additive, and intercalation active material. Two ASI expressions were developed, one for short times ( i.e. , pulsed power operation) and another for the pseudo steady state operation (i.e., sustained discharge for energy estimation). A full electrochemical model based on porous electrode theory was developed to examine the accuracy of the simplified ASI expressions. The simplified expressions agree favorably with full model results over a wide range of parameters (i.e. , electrode thicknesses, electrolyte conductivities, solid-state diffusion coefficients, specific surface areas, etc.) and conditions (i.e. , C-rates, states of charge, and pulse times). Under most conditions, the error between the full model and the correlations is well below 7 %. Higher errors were observed for the pseudo steady state expression at high/ low states of charge where the assumption of uniform reaction distributions loses validity. Here, the short time ASI has higher error at low states of charge due to the nonlinearity of the open circuit voltage equation, which is assumed linear in the formulation of the simplified algebraic expression.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Loss Factors for Small Distributed Wind Turbines Based on Field Data in the United States

While wind energy production loss due to unavailability, environmental impacts, curtailment, and other causes has been studied and characterized at the utility-scale wind farm level, observation-based characterization of project loss is lacking for distributed wind energy, particularly for projects involving small wind turbines. Contemporary tools and research that support pre-construction distributed wind energy characterization present a wide range of default loss factors to convert gross energy estimates to net: 7-18%. We hypothesize that we can use generation observations from operational distributed wind projects to develop more accurate representations of loss. Using a density-based filtering technique on distributed wind power generation timeseries, we determine periods of typical performance and use them with regression algorithms in a measure-correlate-predict fashion to simulate what the generation would have been during periods of atypical or unreported performance. From there, the actual versus predicted generation leads to the establishment of observation-informed loss factors (median = 17%) for small, single turbine installation distributed wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Shock Formation and Vorticity Creation for 3d Euler

Abstract We analyze the shock formation process for the 3D nonisentropic Euler equations with the ideal gas law, in which sound waves interact with entropy waves to produce vorticity. Building on our theory for isentropic flows in [3, 4], we give a constructive proof of shock formation from smooth initial data. Specifically, we prove that there exist smooth solutions to the nonisentropic Euler equations which form a generic stable shock with explicitly computable blowup time, location, and direction. This is achieved by establishing the asymptotic stability of a generic shock profile in modulated self‐similar variables, controlling the interaction of wave families via: (i) pointwise bounds along Lagrangian trajectories, (ii) geometric vorticity structure, and (iii) high‐order energy estimates in Sobolev spaces. © 2022 Wiley Periodicals LLC.

Mathematics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contrasting Chemical Kinetic Parameters for Near In‐Service‐Temperature Aging and High‐Temperature Thermal Decomposition of Triaminotrinitrobenzene Formulations

Triaminotrinitrobenzene-based high explosives such as LX-17 offer high energy density and exceptional safety, yet their long-term aging behavior at low temperatures remains poorly understood. In this study, several legacy and new production lots of LX-17 were subjected to accelerated aging experiments below 100°C, during which the formation rate of the initial degradation product, monofurazan (F1), was monitored. Kinetic analysis was performed using a sample-age-aware computational approach, yielding activation energy estimates of 82–91 kJ mol −1 for the low-temperature initiation step—markedly lower than the ∼200 kJ mol −1 associated with high-temperature thermal decomposition. Extrapolation from established cookoff models supports the conclusion that the dominant degradation mechanism at low temperatures differs from that at high temperatures. In conclusion, our results provide a unified kinetic framework that bridges the gap between in-service conditions and high-temperature damage.

Chemistry - Chemical explosives↗
DOE OSTI2020

First-principles prediction of incipient order in arbitrary high-entropy alloys: exemplified in Ti 0.25 CrFeNiAl

High-temperature disordered multi-component alloys, including high-entropy alloys, experience either segregation or partially-ordered phases to reach low-temperature phases. For Ti 0.25 CrFeNiAl x (0 ≤ x ≤ 1), experiments suggest a partially-ordered B2 phase, whereas CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD) predicts a region of L21+B2 coexistence. We employ first-principles KKR-CPA to assess stability of phases with arbitrary order and a KKR-CPA linear-response theory to predict atomic short-range order (SRO) in the disorder phase that reveals the competing long-range ordered (LRO) phases in a given Bravais lattice. The favorable SRO provides a specific concentration-waves (site occupation probabilities and partially-ordered unit cells) and estimated energy gains that can then be assess directly by KKR-CPA formation enthalpies. Our results are in good agreement with experiments and CALPHAD in Al-poor regions (x ≤ 0.75) and with CALPHAD in Al-rich region (1≥ x >0.75). Our first-principles KKR-CPA and SRO-based concentration-wave analysis is shown to be a powerful and fast method to assess competing LRO phases in complex solid-solution alloys, and our results suggests more careful experiments in Al-rich region are needed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-arrival infrasound from meteoroids: Fragmentation signatures versus propagation effects in a fine-scale layered atmosphere

Infrasonic signatures of meteoroid fragmentation are frequently ambiguous: do multiple arrivals signify a complex breakup or merely the distorting effects of a layered atmosphere? Resolving this ambiguity is critical for accurate energy estimates and source reconstruction. In this study, we address this challenge by analyzing a unique regional dataset of well-constrained meteoroid events observed by the Southern Ontario Meteor Network and the co-located Elginfield Infrasound Array. We employ pseudo-differential parabolic equation (PPE) simulations to quantify how fine-scale gravity-wave structures in the stratosphere and lower thermosphere modify acoustic waveforms at ranges <300 km. Our modeling reveals that while fine-scale layering can stretch signals and generate diffuse oscillatory tails, it does not produce discrete, high-amplitude pulse splitting at ranges below ∼140 km. By applying these results to the rare multi-arrival event 20060305, we demonstrate that its distinct double arrival at 100 km range is inconsistent with atmospheric multipathing and provides definitive evidence of separate fragmentation episodes. These findings establish new diagnostic criteria for separating source physics from propagation artifacts, improving the reliability of infrasound as a monitoring tool for natural bolides, space debris re-entries, and catastrophic launch failures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kinetic Model for the Reduction of Cu II Sites by NO + NH 3 and Reoxidation of NH 3 -Solvated Cu I Sites by O 2 and NO in Cu-SSZ-13

In this work, a kinetic model is developed for the reduction of Cu II sites by NO + NH 3 and the reoxidation of NH 3 -solvated Cu I sites by O 2 and NO in Cu-SSZ-13. Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy and spatially resolved capillary inlet mass spectrometry (SpaciMS) measurements during transient reactor experiments are utilized to identify the rate parameters associated with NO + NH 3 RHC (reduction half-cycle), proposed to occur via two distinct pathways involving adsorbed NH 3 and gas-phase NH 3 . The resulting NO + NH 3 RHC model is validated using spatiotemporal N 2 measurements covering a wide range of temperatures (200–450 °C) and space velocities (53,000–640,000 h –1 ). N 2 O formation is observed and modeled during NO + NH 3 RHC, with quantitative validation under standard selective catalytic reduction (SCR) conditions. Experimentally measured enthalpic and entropic changes associated with O 2 adsorption on NH 3 -solvated Cu I (ZCu(NH 3 ) 2 ) complexes [ Kamasamudram, K. Catal. Today 2010 , 151 (3–4), 212-222], along with activation energies estimated computationally for the intercage diffusion of ZCu(NH 3 ) 2 complexes [ Paolucci, C. Science 2017 , 357 (6 354), 898-903], are incorporated into a mean field kinetic model for the low-temperature oxidation half-cycle (OHC). Significant NH 3 release is observed during the isothermal oxidation of Cu I sites, attributed to desorption of NH 3 ligands from NH 3 -solvated Cu II dimers (Z 2 Cu 2 (NH 3 ) 4 O 2 ). Reduction of these dimeric complexes leads to the consumption of one NO/Cu II , contradicting the expected reduction stoichiometry. Inclusion of a global Arrhenius rate for the NO titration of Z 2 Cu 2 (NH 3 ) 4 O 2 complexes provides accurate representations of standard SCR on reduced and oxidized catalysts, predicting transient NO and NH 3 consumption between 150 and 250 °C as a function of hydrothermal aging. Deactivation of low-temperature standard SCR by NH 3 is observed at high NH 3 pressures, modeled via the formation of superoxo amino (ZCu(NH 3 ) 3 OO*) complexes during NH 3 titration of Z 2 Cu 2 (NH 3 ) 4 O 2 complexes [ Negri, C. J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2020 , 142 (37), 15884-15896]. The redox kinetic model presented here provides a foundational description of active site redox during low-temperature standard SCR, combining the recent kinetic, spectroscopic, and computational findings on the mechanism of standard SCR over Cu-SSZ-13.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Metaplastic and energy-efficient biocompatible graphene artificial synaptic transistors for enhanced accuracy neuromorphic computing

CMOS-based computing systems that employ the von Neumann architecture are relatively limited when it comes to parallel data storage and processing. In contrast, the human brain is a living computational signal processing unit that operates with extreme parallelism and energy efficiency. Although numerous neuromorphic electronic devices have emerged in the last decade, most of them are rigid or contain materials that are toxic to biological systems. In this work, we report on biocompatible bilayer graphene-based artificial synaptic transistors (BLAST) capable of mimicking synaptic behavior. The BLAST devices leverage a dry ion-selective membrane, enabling long-term potentiation, with ~50 aJ/µm 2 switching energy efficiency, at least an order of magnitude lower than previous reports on two-dimensional material-based artificial synapses. The devices show unique metaplasticity, a useful feature for generalizable deep neural networks, and we demonstrate that metaplastic BLASTs outperform ideal linear synapses in classic image classification tasks. With switching energy well below the 1 fJ energy estimated per biological synapse, the proposed devices are powerful candidates for bio-interfaced online learning, bridging the gap between artificial and biological neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the evidence for exponential quantum advantage in ground-state quantum chemistry

Due to intense interest in the potential applications of quantum computing, it is critical to understand the basis for potential exponential quantum advantage in quantum chemistry. Here we gather the evidence for this case in the most common task in quantum chemistry, namely, ground-state energy estimation, for generic chemical problems where heuristic quantum state preparation might be assumed to be efficient. The availability of exponential quantum advantage then centers on whether features of the physical problem that enable efficient heuristic quantum state preparation also enable efficient solution by classical heuristics. Through numerical studies of quantum state preparation and empirical complexity analysis (including the error scaling) of classical heuristics, in both ab initio and model Hamiltonian settings, we conclude that evidence for such an exponential advantage across chemical space has yet to be found. While quantum computers may still prove useful for ground-state quantum chemistry through polynomial speedups, it may be prudent to assume exponential speedups are not generically available for this problem.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Variational fast forwarding for quantum simulation beyond the coherence time

Abstract Trotterization-based, iterative approaches to quantum simulation (QS) are restricted to simulation times less than the coherence time of the quantum computer (QC), which limits their utility in the near term. Here, we present a hybrid quantum-classical algorithm, called variational fast forwarding (VFF), for decreasing the quantum circuit depth of QSs. VFF seeks an approximate diagonalization of a short-time simulation to enable longer-time simulations using a constant number of gates. Our error analysis provides two results: (1) the simulation error of VFF scales at worst linearly in the fast-forwarded simulation time, and (2) our cost function’s operational meaning as an upper bound on average-case simulation error provides a natural termination condition for VFF. We implement VFF for the Hubbard, Ising, and Heisenberg models on a simulator. In addition, we implement VFF on Rigetti’s QC to demonstrate simulation beyond the coherence time. Finally, we show how to estimate energy eigenvalues using VFF.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗