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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Variational Path Sampling of Rare Dynamical Events

This article reviews the concepts and methods of variational path sampling. These methods allow computational studies of rare events in systems driven arbitrarily far from equilibrium. Based upon a statistical mechanics of trajectory space and leveraging the theory of large deviations, they provide a perspective from which dynamical phenomena can be studied with the same types of ensemble reweighting ideas that have been used for static equilibrium properties. Applications to chemical, material, and biophysical systems are highlighted.

Singh, Aditya N↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Alternative Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Approach Using Improved Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasts from the North America Multi-Model Ensemble Phase II

In this article, streamflow forecasting at a subseasonal time scale (10–30 days into the future) is important for various human activities. The ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is a widely applied technique for subseasonal streamflow forecasting. However, ESP’s reliance on the randomly resampled historical precipitation limits its predictive capability. Available dynamical subseasonal precipitation forecasts provide an alternative to the randomly resampled precipitation in ESP. Prior studies found the predictive performance of raw subseasonal precipitation forecast is limited in many regions such as the central south of the United States, which raises questions about its effectiveness in assisting streamflow forecasting. To further assess the hydrologic applicability of dynamical subseasonal precipitation forecasts, we test the subseasonal precipitation forecast from North America Multi-Model Ensemble Phase II (NMME-2) at four watersheds in the central south region of the United States. The subseasonal precipitation forecasts are postprocessed with bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) to correct bias and improve spatial resolution before replacing the randomly resampled precipitation in ESP for streamflow predictions. The performance of the resulting streamflow predictions is benchmarked with ESP. Evaluation is conducted using Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratios (FARs), as well as reliability diagrams. Our results suggest that BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation forecasts lead to overall improved streamflow predictions due to added skills in winter and spring. Our results also suggest that BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation forecasts lead to improved predictions on the occurrence of high-percentile streamflow values above 75%. Overall, BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation has shown promising performance, highlighting its potential broader applications for river and flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Liquid Water by Climbing up Jacob’s Ladder in Density Functional Theory Facilitated by Using Deep Neural Network Potentials

Within the framework of Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT), the ability to provide good predictions of water properties by employing a strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) functional has been extensively demonstrated in recent years. Here, we further advance the modeling of water by building a more accurate model on the fourth rung of Jacob’s ladder with the hybrid functional, SCAN0. In particular, we carry out both classical and Feynman path-integral molecular dynamics calculations of water with the SCAN0 functional and the isobaric–isothermal ensemble. To generate the equilibrated structure of water, a deep neural network potential is trained from the atomic potential energy surface based on ab initio data obtained from SCAN0 DFT calculations. For the electronic properties of water, a separate deep neural network potential is trained by using the Deep Wannier method based on the maximally localized Wannier functions of the equilibrated trajectory at the SCAN0 level. The structural, dynamic, and electric properties of water were analyzed. The hydrogen-bond structures, density, infrared spectra, diffusion coefficients, and dielectric constants of water, in the electronic ground state, are computed by using a large simulation box and long simulation time. For the properties involving electronic excitations, we apply the GW approximation within many-body perturbation theory to calculate the quasiparticle density of states and bandgap of water. Compared to the SCAN functional, mixing exact exchange mitigates the self-interaction error in the meta-generalized-gradient approximation and further softens liquid water toward the experimental direction. For most of the water properties, the SCAN0 functional shows a systematic improvement over the SCAN functional. However, some important discrepancies remain. The H-bond network predicted by the SCAN0 functional is still slightly overstructured compared to the experimental results.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Structural and Valence State Modification of Cobalt in CoPt Nanocatalysts in Redox Conditions

Platinum is the primary catalyst for many chemical reactions in the field of heterogeneous catalysis. However, platinum is both expensive and rare. Therefore, it is advantageous to combine Pt with another metal to reduce cost while also enhancing stability. To that end, Pt is often combined with Co to form Co-Pt nanocrystals. However, dynamical restructuring effects that occur during reaction in Co-Pt ensembles can impact catalytic properties. In this study, model Co 2 Pt 3 nanoparticles supported on carbon were characterized during a redox cycle with two in situ approaches, namely X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) and scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) using a multimodal microreactor. The sample was exposed to temperatures up to 500 °C under H 2 , and then to O 2 at 300 °C. Irreversible segregation of Co in the Co-Pt particles was seen during redox cycling and substantial changes of the oxidation state of Co were observed. After the H 2 treatment, a fraction of Co could not be fully reduced and incorporated into a mixed Co-Pt phase. Re-oxidation of the sample increased Co segregation, and the segregated material had a different valence state than in the fresh, oxidized sample. Furthermore, this in situ study describes dynamical restructuring effects in CoPt nano-catalysts at the atomic scale that are crucial to understand to improve the design of catalysts used in major chemical processes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of ESM Readiness Level for Exascale HPC

Advancement of Earth System Models (ESMs) is becoming increasingly challenging due to a confluence of factors including increasing model complexity – to more fully represent the earth system, increasing spatial resolution - to achieve higher accuracy by resolving fine-scale dynamical to physical, biological, and chemical processes and their interaction, increasing ensemble size - to more accurately represent predictive uncertainty, and increased computing requirements – to enable more accurate and timely weather predictions and climate projections for societal benefit. The belief by many that computing will take care of itself is no longer valid given the disruptive changes in HPC that are driving up the cost of computing, increasing the difficulty of using emerging HPC effectively, and exposing limits in parallelism, portability and scalability of the ESM applications themselves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change Impacts on the South American Monsoon System and Its Surface–Atmosphere Processes Through RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE Projections

Here, we evaluate projected changes in surface water and energy balances and surface–atmosphere coupling in the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) for the end of the century (2080–2099). The analyses are based on two ensemble datasets, which follow Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 in the future period, and cover four subdomains (Northern and Southern—NAMZ and SAMZ—Amazon, La Plata Basin—LPB, and Southern Southeast Brazil—SSB). One ensemble consists of three Global Climate Models (HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR and NorESM1-M), while the other consists of their dynamically downscaled version at 25 km horizontal grid spacing using Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). As both ensembles are able in reproducing the annual cycle of the components of the surface water and energy balances in the present climate, they can be used in the study of future climate. During the wet season (November–March), both ensembles project a decrease in precipitation over NAMZ and SAMZ (an exception is RegCM4 that projects a slight increase in SAMZ), and an increase across the LPB and SSB. These changes do not cause retreat or expansion of the monsoon area over the continent, which is similar to the present climate (1995–2014). For the wet season, the ensembles are in line with the presence of a strong surface–atmosphere coupling in LPB and SSB, weak coupling in SAMZ and very weak coupling in NAMZ. For future climate, the coupling is even weaker in NAMZ, which may be a driver for the negative changes in precipitation. For the other subdomains, while the ensembles project similar signals of precipitation changes, they disagree with the surface-atmosphere coupling highlighting the uncertainties in future climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Assessment of Nonhydrostatic and Hydrostatic Dynamical Cores at Seasonal Time Scales in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)

Abstract In global atmospheric modeling, the differences between nonhydrostatic (NH) and hydrostatic (H) dynamical cores are negligible in dry simulations when grid spacing is larger than 10 km. However, recent studies suggest that those differences can be significant at far coarser resolution when moisture is included. To better understand how NH and H differences manifest in global fields, we perform and analyze an ensemble of 28 and 13 km seasonal simulations with the NH and H dynamical cores in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model global atmosphere model, where the differences between H and NH configurations are minimized. A set of idealized rising bubble experiments is also conducted to further investigate the differences. Although NH and H differences are not significant in global statistics and zonal averages, significant differences in precipitation amount and patterns are observed in parts of the tropics. The most prominent differences emerge near India and the Western Pacific in the boreal summer, and the central‐southern Indian Ocean and Pacific in the boreal winter. Tropical differences influence surrounding regions through modification of the regional circulation and can propagate to the extratropics, leading to significant temperature and geopotential differences over the middle to high latitudes. While the dry bubble experiments show negligible deviation between H and NH dynamics until grid spacing is below 6.25 km, precipitation amount and vertical velocity are different in the moist case even at 25 km resolution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Constrained Data Assimilation Algorithm Based on GSI Hybrid 3D-EnVar and Its Application

Abstract Data assimilation (DA) at mesoscales is important for severe weather forecasts, yet the techniques of data assimilation at this scale remain a challenge. This study introduces dynamical constraints in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional ensemble variational (3D-EnVar) data assimilation algorithm to enable the use of high-resolution surface observations of precipitation to improve atmospheric analysis at mesoscales. The constraints use the conservations of mass and moisture. Mass constraint suppresses the unphysical high-frequency oscillation, while moisture conservation constrains the atmospheric states to conform with the observed high-resolution precipitation. We show that the constrained data assimilation (CDA) algorithm significantly reduced the spurious residuals of the mass and moisture budgets compared to the original data assimilation (ODA). A case study is presented for a squall line over the Southern Great Plains on 20 May 2011 during Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program by using ODA or CDA analysis as initial condition of forecasts. The state variables, and the location and intensity of the squall line are better simulated in the CDA experiment. Results show how surface observation of precipitation can be used to improve atmospheric analysis through data assimilation by using the dynamical constraints of mass and moisture conservations.

Wang, Jia↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interface Coating Design for Dynamic Voltage Stability of Solid‐State Batteries

Abstract Intrinsic or interface thermodynamic voltage windows of solid electrolytes are often narrower than the operational voltage range needed by a full battery, thus various interface decomposition reactions can happen in a practical solid‐state battery. Experimentally, it is found that a proper battery design utilizing the reactions can lead to a dynamic evolution from interface instability to stability, giving the so‐called dynamic voltage stability for advanced battery performance. Here, first the state‐of‐the‐art understanding is articulated about how the dynamic voltage stability should be interpreted in physical picture and treated in computation, emphasizing the potential importance of nonequilibrium reaction pathways. The constrained ensemble computational approach is further applied across most types of solid‐state electrolytes to systematically evaluate and compare their dynamic stability voltage windows in response to the mechanical constriction effect. High‐throughput calculations are used to search for coating materials for different interfaces between sulfide, halide, and oxide electrolytes and typical cathode materials with enhanced dynamic voltage stability. A comparison with experiment is given to highlight the value of these computational predictions.

Wang, Yichao↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ab Initio Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Amorphous Calcium Carbonate: Interpretation of Pair Distribution Function and X-Ray Absorption Spectroscopy Data

The structure and transformation of hydrous amorphous calcium carbonate (ACC) are key to understanding biomineralization pathways and their relationship with the properties of the resulting material. Quantitative interpretation of scattering experiments aimed at elucidating the structure of ACC is challenging, due to the amorphous nature of this material, and, therefore, requires models for the structure and the scattering physics. Here, we generate physically realistic ensembles of hydrated ACC structures and their vibrational disorder from ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations with an emphasis on enabling the consistent interpretation of the finer details of three complementary structural probes: neutron and x-ray pair distribution experiments and x-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS). In each case, we simulate the signal directly in reciprocal space and then manipulate it into the real-space pair distribution function (PDF) or spectrum using the same procedures for the experimental and theoretical data. Good agreement with experiment was obtained across the three techniques with the simulations accounting well for all features in the spectra. Remaining small discrepancies pointed to differences between real samples and the idealized simulated systems such as deviations from the nominal CaCO3·nH2O stoichiometry. Additionally, the simulations offered a more accurate description of the local coordination environment of calcium than previous shell-by-shell fits to spectra of synthetic ACC and classical molecular dynamics simulations. This work demonstrates that AIMD is a powerful approach for extracting detailed structural information from neutron PDF, x-ray PDF, and XAS of amorphous carbonate phases.

Prange, Micah P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

From sequence to protein structure and conformational dynamics with artificial intelligence/machine learning

The 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded in part for de novo protein structure prediction using AlphaFold2, an artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) model trained on vast amounts of sequence and three-dimensional structure data. AlphaFold2 and related models, including RoseTTAFold and ESMFold, employ specialized neural network architectures driven by attention mechanisms to infer relationships between sequence and structure. At a fundamental level, these AI/ML models operate on the long-standing hypothesis that the structure of a protein is determined by its amino acid sequence. More recently, AlphaFold2 has been adapted for the prediction of multiple protein conformations by subsampling multiple sequence alignments. Herein, we provide an overview of the deterministic relationship between sequence and structure, which was hypothesized over half a century ago with profound implications for the biological sciences ever since. We postulate that protein conformational dynamics are also determined, at least in part, by amino acid sequence and that this relationship may be leveraged for construction of AI/ML models dedicated to predicting protein conformational ensembles. Accordingly, we describe a conceptual model architecture, which may be trained on sequence data in combination with conformationally sensitive structural information, coming primarily from nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Notwithstanding certain limitations in this context, NMR offers abundant structural heterogeneity conducive to conformational ensemble prediction. As NMR and other data continue to accumulate, sequence-informed prediction of protein structural dynamics with AI/ML has the potential to emerge as a transformative capability across the biological sciences.

Artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2025

Signal amplification in a solid-state sensor through asymmetric many-body echo

Electronic spins of nitrogen–vacancy centres in diamond constitute a promising system for micro- and nanoscale magnetic sensing, because of their operation under ambient conditions, ease of placement in close proximity to sensing targets and biological compatibility. At high densities, the electronic spins interact through dipolar coupling, which typically limits but can also potentially enhance sensing performance. Here we report the experimental demonstration of many-body signal amplification in a solid-state, room-temperature quantum sensor. Our approach uses time-reversed two-axis-twisting interactions, engineered through dynamical control of the quantization axis and Floquet engineering in a two-dimensional ensemble of nitrogen–vacancy centres. We observe that optimal amplification occurs when the backward evolution time equals twice the forward evolution time, in sharp contrast to the conventional Loschmidt echo. These observations can be understood as resulting from an underlying time-reversed mirror symmetry of the microscopic dynamics, providing key insights into signal amplification and opportunities for practical entanglement-enhanced quantum sensing.

quantum information↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inter-Oligomer Interaction Influence on Photoluminescence in Cis-Polyacetylene Semiconductor Materials

Semiconducting conjugated polymers (CPs) are pivotal in advancing organic electronics, offering tunable properties for solar cells and field-effect transistors. Here, we carry out first-principle calculations to study individual cis-polyacetylene (cis-PA) oligomers and their ensembles. The ground electronic structures are obtained using density functional theory (DFT), and excited state dynamics are explored by computing nonadiabatic couplings (NACs) between electronic and nuclear degrees of freedom. We compute the nonradiative relaxation of charge carriers and photoluminescence (PL) using the Redfield theory. Our findings show that electrons relax faster than holes. The ensemble of oligomers shows faster relaxation compared to the single oligomer. The calculated PL spectra show features from both interband and intraband transitions. The ensemble shows broader line widths, redshift of transition energies, and lower intensities compared to the single oligomer. This comparative study suggests that the dispersion forces and orbital hybridizations between chains are the leading contributors to the variation in PL. It provides insights into the fundamental behaviors of CPs and the molecular-level understanding for the design of more efficient optoelectronic devices.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhanced Emission from Bright Excitons in Asymmetrically Strained Colloidal CdSe/Cd x Zn 1– x Se Quantum Dots

Colloidal CdSe quantum dots (QDs) designed with a high degree of asymmetric internal strain have recently been shown to host a number of desirable optical properties including subthermal room-temperature line widths, suppressed spectral diffusion, and high photoluminescence (PL) quantum yields. It remains an open question, however, whether they are well-suited for applications requiring emission of identical single photons. Here we measure the low-temperature PL dynamics and the polarization-resolved fluorescence line narrowing spectra from ensembles of these strained QDs. Our spectroscopy reveals the radiative recombination rates of bright and dark excitons, the relaxation rate between the two, and the energy spectra of the quantized acoustic phonons in the QDs that can contribute to relaxation processes. In comparison to conventional colloidal CdSe/ZnS core/shell QDs, we find that in asymmetrically strained CdSe QDs over six times more light is emitted directly by the bright exciton. Furthermore, these results are therefore encouraging for the prospects of chemically synthesized colloidal QDs as emitters of single indistinguishable photons.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Groundwater Response and Uncertainty in Beaver‐Influenced Mountainous Floodplains Using Machine Learning‐Based Model Calibration

Abstract Beavers ( Castor canadensis ) alter river corridor hydrology by creating ponds and inundating floodplains, and thereby improving surface water storage. However, the impact of inundation on groundwater, particularly in mountainous alluvial floodplains with permeable gravel/cobble layers overlain by a soil layer, remains uncertain. Numerical modeling across various floodplain structures considers topographic and sediment complexity and multidirectional flow, linking inundation to groundwater response. This study develops a model‐data integration workflow to address uncertainty in groundwater response to beaver‐induced inundations in a mountainous alluvial floodplain in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Uncertain factors include seasonal hydrologic dynamics, hydraulic conductivities, floodplain structures, and meteorological forcings. We employed an ensemble of groundwater models, based on geophysical and hydrologic data, with machine learning‐based calibration using a neural density estimator. This allowed us to quantify the vertical flux from the soil layer to the permeable gravel bed, the down‐valley underflow within the gravel bed, and their ratios. Results show a significant increase in the vertical flux relative to down‐valley underflow, from 2 during dry pond periods to 20 during wet periods, serving as an analogy for conditions without and with beaver ponds. The study highlights the influence of floodplain structure on groundwater storage, water balance, and water quality impacted by beaver ponds. A thick gravel bed layer, with a large down‐valley underflow, minimizes the effect of beaver‐induced inundation on water quality. We emphasize the need for field‐scale measurements of floodplain structure and improved characterization of evapotranspiration changes to reduce uncertainty in groundwater response. Plain Language Summary Beavers change the flow of water in river corridors by creating ponds, expanding wetlands, and flooding floodplains. This increases surface water area, promotes plant growth, and enhances biodiversity. However, the impact of this flooding on groundwater flow is not well understood, especially in mountainous areas with gravel layers where water moves easily beneath soil. In this study, we used numerical modeling to investigate how beaver ponds influence groundwater in a mountainous floodplain of the Upper Colorado River Basin. We adapted a machine learning method to validate our numerical models using multiple field data sets. Our findings show that beaver ponds significantly increase vertical water flow from the soil to the gravel during wet periods, compared to when the ponds are fully drained. The study also highlights the importance of floodplain structure in controlling both water flow in gravel layers along the river direction and vertical flow from the soil to the gravel with the presence of beavers. To reduce uncertainty in groundwater response, we emphasize the need for more field‐scale measurements of floodplain structure, hydraulic properties, and evapotranspiration changes. Key Points Floodplain structures and hydraulic conductivities are important for groundwater response with beaver ponds in mountainous floodplains Large down‐valley underflow in permeability‐stratified floodplains reduces beaver‐induced impacts on groundwater storage and water quality Machine learning‐based model calibration methods are effective for estimating posterior distributions of groundwater model parameters

Wang, Lijing↗
DOE OSTI2023

CMIP6-based Multi-model Streamflow Projections over the Conterminous US

This dataset presents an ensemble of streamflow projections based on the hydroclimate projections dataset supporting the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). The six-member General Climate Model (GCM) ensemble from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) downscaled using statistical (i.e., DBCCA) and dynamical (i.e., RegCM) and bias-corrected using two meteorological reference observations (Daymet & Livneh) are driven through two calibrated hydrologic models (VIC & PRMS) to simulate projected future hydrologic responses. This leads to the production of an ensemble of hydroclimate projections, including total runoff (surface runoff and baseflow) for 1980–2019 baseline and 2020–2059 near-term future periods under multiple emission scenarios at 1/24° (~4 km) spatial resolution across the CONUS. The total runoff projections are routed through the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) routing model to produce an ensemble of streamflow projections for both periods across 2.7 million NHDPlusV2 stream reaches in the CONUS.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗