Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “estimation theory”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1989

Transmission overhaul and replacement predictions using Weibull and renewal theory

A method to estimate the frequency of transmission overhauls is presented. This method is based on the two-parameter Weibull statistical distribution for component life. A second method is presented to estimate the number of replacement components needed to support the transmission overhaul pattern. The second method is based on renewal theory. Confidence statistics are applied with both methods to improve the statistical estimate of sample behavior. A transmission example is also presented to illustrate the use of the methods. Transmission overhaul frequency and component replacement calculations are included in the example.

Savage, M.↗
NASA NTRS1995

The nightward ion flow scenario at Venus revisited

We indicate how existing Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) data might be used to gain a better understanding of nightward ion flow in the Venusian ionosphere. Calculations based on PVO measurements made at solar maximum suggest that the global nightward flow of O(+) may be signifcantly greater than is required to maintain the observed nightside ionosphere densities. The validity of this conclusion depends upon (1) the accuracy with which the flow can be determined from the PVO ion density and velocity measurements and (2) the validity of the ionosphere theory used to estimate the required downward O(+) flux on the night side. If the measurements and theory are assumed to be accurate, the excess nightward flow implies a significant rate of ion escape from the planet, particularly at times of low solar wind dynamic pressure, Psw, when the ionopause rises to allow increased nightward flow. To illustrate a potentially important mechanism for ion escape from Venus, we present Orbiter Electron Temperature Probe (OETP) observations of plasma clouds and scavenged ionospheric plasma observed above the ionopause. We then employ OETP and Orbiter Retarding Potential Analyzer (ORPA) data to reexamine the global ion flow for average Psw conditions.

Brace, L. H.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Iron catalyst chemistry in modeling a high-pressure carbon monoxide nanotube reactor

The high-pressure carbon monoxide (HiPco) technique for producing single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWNTs) is analyzed with the use of a chemical reaction model coupled with flow properties calculated along streamlines, calculated by the FLUENT code for pure carbon monoxide. Cold iron pentacarbonyl, diluted in CO at about 30 atmospheres, is injected into a conical mixing zone, where hot CO is also introduced via three jets at 30 degrees with respect to the axis. Hot CO decomposes the Fe(CO)5 to release atomic Fe. Then iron nucleates and forms clusters that catalyze the formation of SWNTs by a disproportionation reaction (Boudouard) of CO on Fe-containing clusters. Alternative nucleation rates are estimated from the theory of hard sphere collision dynamics with an activation energy barrier. The rate coefficient for carbon nanotube growth is estimated from activation energies in the literature. The calculated growth was found be about an order of magnitude greater than measured, regardless of the nucleation rate. A study of cluster formation in an incubation zone prior to injection into the reactor shows that direct dimer formation from Fe atoms is not as important as formation via an exchange reaction of Fe with CO in FeCO.

Evaluation Studies↗
NASA NTRS1988

Simulation of fundamental atomization mechanisms in fuel sprays

Growth of instabilities on the liquid/gas interface in the initial region of fuel sprays is studied by means of numerical simulations. The simulations are based on solutions of the variable-density incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, which are obtained with a new numerical algorithm. The simulations give good agreement with analytical results for the instabilities on a liquid cylinder induced by surface tension and wind-induced instabilities. The effects of boundary layers on the wind-induced instabilities are investigated. It is found that a boundary layer reduces the growth rate for a single interface, and a comparison with inviscid theory suggests that boundary layer effects may be significantly more important than surface tension effects. The results yield a better estimate than inviscid theory for the drop sizes as reported for diesel sprays. Results for the planar jet show that boundary layer effects hasten the growth of Squire's 'symmetric' mode, which is responsible for jet disintegration. This result helps explain the rapid atomization which occurs in swirl and air-blast atomizers.

Childs, Robert, E.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Survey and analysis of research on supersonic drag-due-to-lift minimization with recommendations for wing design

A survey of research on drag-due-to-lift minimization at supersonic speeds, including a study of the effectiveness of current design and analysis methods was conducted. The results show that a linearized theory analysis with estimated attainable thrust and vortex force effects can predict with reasonable accuracy the lifting efficiency of flat wings. Significantly better wing performance can be achieved through the use of twist and camber. Although linearized theory methods tend to overestimate the amount of twist and camber required for a given application and provide an overly optimistic performance prediction, these deficiencies can be overcome by implementation of recently developed empirical corrections. Numerous examples of the correlation of experiment and theory are presented to demonstrate the applicability and limitations of linearized theory methods with and without empirical corrections. The use of an Euler code for the estimation of aerodynamic characteristics of a twisted and cambered wing and its application to design by iteration are discussed.

Carlson, Harry W.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Transition and laminar instability

The linear stability theory was applied to the problem of boundary layer transition in incompressible flow. The theory was put into a form suitable for three-dimensional boundary layers; both the temporal and spatial theories were examined; and a generalized Gaster relation for three-dimensional boundary layers was derived. Numerical examples include the stability characteristics of Falkner-Skan boundary layers, the accuracy of the two-dimensional Gaster relation for these boundary layers, and the magnitude and direction of the group velocity for oblique waves in the Blasius boundary layer. Available experiments which bear on the validity of stability theory and its relation to transition are reviewed and the stability theory is applied to transition prediction. The amplitude method is described in which the wide band disturbance amplitude in the boundary layer is estimated from stability theory and an interaction relation for the initial amplitude density of the most unstable frequency.

Mack, L. M.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Nonlinear consider covariance analysis using a sigma-point filter formulation

The research reported here extends the mathematical formulation of nonlinear, sigma-point estimators to enable consider covariance analysis for dynamical systems. This paper presents a novel sigma-point consider filter algorithm, for consider-parameterized nonlinear estimation, following the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) variation on the sigma-point filter formulation, which requires no partial derivatives of dynamics models or measurement models with respect to the parameter list. It is shown that, consistent with the attributes of sigma-point estimators, a consider-parameterized sigma-point estimator can be developed entirely without requiring the derivation of any partial-derivative matrices related to the dynamical system, the measurements, or the considered parameters, which appears to be an advantage over the formulation of a linear-theory sequential consider estimator. It is also demonstrated that a consider covariance analysis performed with this 'partial-derivative-free' formulation yields equivalent results to the linear-theory consider filter, for purely linear problems.

covariance↗
NASA NTRS1976

Improvements in aircraft extraction programs

Flight data from an F-8 Corsair and a Cessna 172 was analyzed to demonstrate specific improvements in the LRC parameter extraction computer program. The Cramer-Rao bounds were shown to provide a satisfactory relative measure of goodness of parameter estimates. It was not used as an absolute measure due to an inherent uncertainty within a multiplicative factor, traced in turn to the uncertainty in the noise bandwidth in the statistical theory of parameter estimation. The measure was also derived on an entirely nonstatistical basis, yielding thereby also an interpretation of the significance of off-diagonal terms in the dispersion matrix. The distinction between coefficients as linear and non-linear was shown to be important in its implication to a recommended order of parameter iteration. Techniques of improving convergence generally, were developed, and tested out on flight data. In particular, an easily implemented modification incorporating a gradient search was shown to improve initial estimates and thus remove a common cause for lack of convergence.

Balakrishnan, A. V.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Estimation of parameters involved in high angle-of-attack aerodynamic theory using spin flight test data

The difficulty in applying parameter estimation techniques to spinning airplanes is due in part to the unwieldy number of possible combinations of terms in the equations of motion, when the model structure is unknown. The combination of high angle of attack and high rotation rate results in aerodynamic functions which are quite complex. For wing dominated configurations it is advantageous to use aerodynamic theory to generate the model structure. In this way, the number of unknown parameters is reduced and the model accuracy may be increased. Under conditions for which the theory is inadequate, however, model accuracy may be reduced. Strip theory, for example, is incapable of predicting autorotative rolling moments indicated by wind tunnel tests at angles of attack exceeding 40 degrees. An improved aerodynamic theory would be necessary to successfully apply the technique advanced for such regions.

Taylor, L. W., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Cellular Automaton Simulation for Predicting Phase Evolution in Solid-State Reactions

New computational tools for solid-state synthesis recipe design are needed in order to accelerate the experimental realization of novel functional materials proposed by high-throughput materials discovery workflows. This work contributes a cellular automaton simulation framework for predicting the time-dependent evolution of intermediate and product phases during solid-state reactions as a function of precursor choice and amount, reaction atmosphere, and heating profile. The simulation captures the effects of reactant particle spatial distribution, particle melting, and reaction atmosphere. Reaction rates based on rudimentary kinetics are estimated using density functional theory data from the Materials Project and machine learning estimators for the melting point and the vibrational entropy component of the Gibbs free energy. The resulting simulation framework allows for the prediction of the likely outcome of a reaction recipe before any experiments are performed. We analyze five experimental solid-state recipes for BaTiO 3 , CaZrN 2 , and YMnO 3 found in the literature to illustrate the performance of the model in capturing reaction selectivity and reaction pathways as a function of temperature and precursor choice. This simulation framework offers an easier way to optimize existing recipes, aid in the identification of intermediates, and design effective recipes for yet unrealized inorganic solids in silico .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1996

Galactic cosmic radiation model and its applications

A model for the differential energy spectra of galactic cosmic radiation as a function of solar activity is described. It is based on the standard diffusion-convection theory of solar modulation. Estimates of the modulation potential based on fitting this theory to observed spectral measurements from 1954 to 1989 are correlated to the Climax neutron counting rates and to the sunspot numbers at earlier times taking into account the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field at the time of observations. These regression lines then provide a method for predicting the modulation at later times. The results of this model are quantitatively compared to a similar Moscow State University (MSU) model. These model cosmic ray spectra are used to predict the linear energy transfer spectra, differential energy spectra of light (charge less than or = 2) ions, and single event upsets rates in memeory devices. These calculations are compared to observations made aboard the Space Shuttle.

Badhwar, G. D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Long-Term Degradation of Adsorbents for Direct Air Capture by Ozonolysis

Porous adsorbents are a promising class of materials for the direct air capture of CO 2 (DAC). Practical implementation of adsorption-based DAC requires adsorbents that can be used for thousands of adsorption–desorption cycles without significant degradation. We examined the potential degradation of adsorbents by a mechanism that appears to have not been considered previously, namely, ozonolysis by trace levels of ozone from ambient air. We focused on amine-appended metal–organic frameworks, specifically amine-functionalized Mg 2 (dobpdc), as a representative DAC adsorbent. Estimates based on the number of amine sites in these adsorbents and the ozone concentration in air suggest that degradation by ozone may be relevant over thousands of adsorption–desorption cycles if reactions with adsorbed ozone are fast. We used density functional theory calculations to estimate reaction rates for amine groups and carbon–carbon double bonds in amine-functionalized Mg 2 (dobpdc).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Macroscopic modeling of gas permeability in hierarchical micro/nanoporous media: A unified characterization of rarefaction using Klinkenberg theory and equivalent diameter

Estimating gas transport through a hierarchical micro/nanoporous system is challenging due to non-equilibrium gas dynamics. The primary difficulty lies in determining the rarefaction level, because identifying a representative flow dimension in a complex porous system with multiple pore scales is not straightforward. Our study performed a pore-level analysis for gas permeability in dual-scale porous media with varying porosity, throat size, and secondary pore size under different rarefaction conditions. We found that secondary porosity negatively affects permeability due to increased friction forces, with this influence growing as the secondary pore size and porosity increase until the secondary pore becomes comparable to the throat. However, rarefaction reduces the effects of secondary pores due to boundary slip. Traditional Knudsen number (Kn) calculations based on Darcy-defined height failed to accurately describe the rarefaction effects on gas permeability. Instead, we introduced an equivalent diameter to calculate the Kn, which provided an accurate normalization of apparent gas permeability independent of pore geometry. Furthermore, the extended Kozeny–Carman–Klinkenberg model developed in our previous study successfully yielded a macroscopic model for apparent gas permeability in hierarchical micro/nanoporous systems as a function of the traditional Darcy height and porosity.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
NASA NTRS1981

A new method of Curie depth evaluation from magnetic data: Theory

An approach to estimating the Curie point isotherm uses the classical Gauss method inverting a system of nonlinear equations. The method, slightly modified by a differential correction technique, directly inverts filtered Magsat data to calculate the crustal structure above the Curie depth, which is modeled as a magnetized layer of varying thickness and susceptibility. Since the depth below the layer is assumed to be nonmagnetic, the bottom of the layer is interpreted as the Curie depth. The method, once fully developed, tested, and compared with previous work by others, is to be applied to a portion of the eastern U.S. when sufficient Magsat data are accumulated for the region.

Won, I. J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Can Neutron Star Tidal Effects Obscure Deviations from General Relativity?

Abstract One of the main goals of gravitational-wave astrophysics is to study gravity in the strong-field regime and constrain deviations from general relativity (GR). Any such deviation affects not only binary dynamics and gravitational-wave emission but also the structure and tidal properties of compact objects. In the case of neutron stars, masses, radii, and tidal deformabilities can all differ significantly between different theories of gravity. Currently, the measurement uncertainties in neutron star radii and tidal deformabilities are quite large. However, much less is known about how the large uncertainty in the nuclear equation of state (EOS) might affect tests of GR using binary neutron star mergers. Conversely, using the wrong theory of gravity might lead to incorrect constraints on the nuclear EOS. Here, we study this problem within scalar–tensor (ST) theory. We apply the recently derived ℓ = 2 tidal Love numbers in this theory to parameter estimation of GW170817. Correspondingly, we test if physics beyond GR could bias measurements of the nuclear EOS and neutron star radii. We find that parameter inference for both the GR and ST cases returns consistent component masses and tidal deformabilities. The radius and the EOS posteriors, however, differ between the two theories, but neither is excluded by current observational limits. This indicates that measurements of the nuclear EOS may be biased and that deviations from GR could go undetected when analyzing current binary neutron star mergers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Adaptive Error Estimation in Linearized Ocean General Circulation Models

Data assimilation methods are routinely used in oceanography. The statistics of the model and measurement errors need to be specified a priori. This study addresses the problem of estimating model and measurement error statistics from observations. We start by testing innovation based methods of adaptive error estimation with low-dimensional models in the North Pacific (5-60 deg N, 132-252 deg E) to TOPEX/POSEIDON (TIP) sea level anomaly data, acoustic tomography data from the ATOC project, and the MIT General Circulation Model (GCM). A reduced state linear model that describes large scale internal (baroclinic) error dynamics is used. The methods are shown to be sensitive to the initial guess for the error statistics and the type of observations. A new off-line approach is developed, the covariance matching approach (CMA), where covariance matrices of model-data residuals are "matched" to their theoretical expectations using familiar least squares methods. This method uses observations directly instead of the innovations sequence and is shown to be related to the MT method and the method of Fu et al. (1993). Twin experiments using the same linearized MIT GCM suggest that altimetric data are ill-suited to the estimation of internal GCM errors, but that such estimates can in theory be obtained using acoustic data. The CMA is then applied to T/P sea level anomaly data and a linearization of a global GFDL GCM which uses two vertical modes. We show that the CMA method can be used with a global model and a global data set, and that the estimates of the error statistics are robust. We show that the fraction of the GCM-T/P residual variance explained by the model error is larger than that derived in Fukumori et al.(1999) with the method of Fu et al.(1993). Most of the model error is explained by the barotropic mode. However, we find that impact of the change in the error statistics on the data assimilation estimates is very small. This is explained by the large representation error, i.e. the dominance of the mesoscale eddies in the T/P signal, which are not part of the 21 by 1" GCM. Therefore, the impact of the observations on the assimilation is very small even after the adjustment of the error statistics. This work demonstrates that simult&neous estimation of the model and measurement error statistics for data assimilation with global ocean data sets and linearized GCMs is possible. However, the error covariance estimation problem is in general highly underdetermined, much more so than the state estimation problem. In other words there exist a very large number of statistical models that can be made consistent with the available data. Therefore, methods for obtaining quantitative error estimates, powerful though they may be, cannot replace physical insight. Used in the right context, as a tool for guiding the choice of a small number of model error parameters, covariance matching can be a useful addition to the repertory of tools available to oceanographers.

Chechelnitsky, Michael Y.↗