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DOE OSTI2021

Energetics of surface melt in West Antarctica

We use reanalysis data and satellite remote sensing of cloud properties to examine how meteorological conditions alter the surface energy balance to cause surface melt that is detectable in satellite passive microwave imagery over West Antarctica. This analysis can detect each of the three primary mechanisms for inducing surface melt at a specific location: thermal blanketing involving sensible heat flux and/or longwave heating by optically thick cloud cover, all-wave radiative enhancement by optically thin cloud cover, and föhn winds. We examine case studies over Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, which are of interest for ice shelf and ice sheet stability, and over Siple Dome, which is more readily accessible for field work. During January 2015 over Siple Dome we identified a melt event whose origin is an all-wave radiative enhancement by optically thin clouds. During December 2011 over Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, we identified a melt event caused mainly by thermal blanketing from optically thick clouds. Over Siple Dome, those same 2011 synoptic conditions yielded a thermal-blanketing-driven melt event that was initiated by an impulse of sensible heat flux and then prolonged by cloud longwave heating. The December 2011 synoptic conditions also generated föhn winds at a location on the Ross Ice Shelf adjacent to the Transantarctic Mountains, and we analyze this case with additional support from automatic weather station data. In contrast, a late-summer thermal blanketing period over Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers during February 2013 showed surface melt initiated by cloud longwave heating and then prolonged by enhanced sensible heat flux. One limitation thus far with this type of analysis involves uncertainties in the cloud optical properties. Nevertheless, with improvements this type of analysis can enable quantitative prediction of atmospheric stress on the vulnerable Antarctic ice shelves in a steadily warming climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Performance of Heterogeneous Sulfate Aerosol Formation Mechanisms Against Aircraft and Ground-Based Observations in Seoul, South Korea

Haze events are a common occurrence in East Asia, where local meteorology combines with anthropogenic emissions under certain conditions to create rapid increases in secondary aerosol. Often these events are driven by rapid production of secondary sulfate-nitrate-ammonium (SIA) aerosol. Models have typically included simple parameterizations of the production of sulfate during these events which vary widely in their magnitude. There are a range of different mechanistic descriptions of the chemical processes occurring during these events in large part due to poor constraints on aerosol pH and transition metal content, both of which are important to determining the key pathway(s) driving aerosol production. Here, we use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to interpret detailed ground and aircraft observations from May and June 2016 during the Korea-United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) field study to evaluate the mechanistic pathways governing sulfate production during a haze event. We apply our model of sulfate production mechanisms to ground-based speciated aerosol measurements in winter, summer, and fall in Seoul.

Katherine R Travis↗

DOE OSTI2023

Recreating the California New Year's Flood Event of 1997 in a Regionally Refined Earth System Model

Abstract The 1997 New Year's flood event was the most costly in California's history. This compound extreme event was driven by a category 5 atmospheric river that led to widespread snowmelt. Extreme precipitation, snowmelt, and saturated soils produced heavy runoff causing widespread inundation in the Sacramento Valley. This study recreates the 1997 flood using the Regionally Refined Mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM‐E3SM) under prescribed ocean conditions. Understanding the processes causing extreme events informs practical efforts to anticipate and prepare for such events in the future, and also provides a rich context to evaluate model skill in representing extremes. Three California‐focused RRM grids, with horizontal resolution refinement of 14 km down to 3.5 km, and six forecast lead times, 28 December 1996 at 00Z through 30 December 1996 at 12Z, are assessed for their ability to recreate the 1997 flood. Planetary to synoptic scale atmospheric circulations and integrated vapor transport are weakly influenced by horizontal resolution refinement over California. Topography and mesoscale circulations, such as the Sierra barrier jet, are better represented at finer horizontal resolutions resulting in better estimates of storm total precipitation and storm duration snowpack changes. Traditional time‐series and causal analysis frameworks are used to examine runoff sensitivities state‐wide and above major reservoirs. These frameworks show that horizontal resolution plays a more prominent role in shaping reservoir inflows, namely the magnitude and time‐series shape, than forecast lead time, 2‐to‐4 days prior to the 1997 flood onset.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Nature of S-States in the Oxygen-Evolving Complex Resolved by High-Energy Resolution Fluorescence Detected X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy

Photosystem II, the water splitting enzyme of photosynthesis, utilizes the energy of sunlight to drive the four-electron oxidation of water to dioxygen at the oxygen-evolving complex (OEC). The OEC harbors a Mn 4 CaO 5 cluster that cycles through five oxidation states S i (i = 0–4). The S 3 state is the last metastable state before the O 2 evolution. Its electronic structure and nature of the S 2 → S 3 transition are key topics of persisting controversy. Most spectroscopic studies suggest that the S 3 state consists of four Mn(IV) ions, compared to the Mn(III)Mn(IV) 3 of the S 2 state. However, recent crystallographic data have received conflicting interpretations, suggesting either metal- or ligand-based oxidation, the latter leading to an oxyl radical or a peroxo moiety in the S 3 state. Herein, we utilize high-energy resolution fluorescence detected (HERFD) X-ray absorption spectroscopy to obtain a highly resolved description of the Mn K pre-edge region for all S-states, paying special attention to use chemically unperturbed S 3 state samples. In combination with quantum chemical calculations, we achieve assignment of specific spectroscopic features to geometric and electronic structures for all S-states. These data are used to confidently discriminate between the various suggestions concerning the electronic structure and the nature of oxidation events in all observable catalytic intermediates of the OEC. Our results do not support the presence of either peroxo or oxyl in the active configuration of the S 3 state. This establishes Mn-centered storage of oxidative equivalents in all observable catalytic transitions and constrains the onset of the O–O bond formation until after the final light-driven oxidation event.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2016

Conjunction Assessment Late-Notice High-Interest Event Investigation: Space Weather Aspects

Late-notice events usually driven by large changes in primary (protected) object or secondary object state. Main parameter to represent size of state change is component position difference divided by associated standard deviation (epsilon divided by sigma) from covariance. Investigation determined actual frequency of large state changes, in both individual and combined states. Compared them to theoretically expected frequencies. Found that large changes ( (epsilon divided by sigma) is greater than 3) in individual object states occur much more frequently than theory dictates. Effect is less pronounced in radial components and in events with probability of collision (Pc) greater than 1 (sup -5) (1e-5). Found combined state matched much closer to theoretical expectation, especially for radial and cross-track. In-track is expected to be the most vulnerable to modeling errors, so not surprising that non-compliance largest in this component.

Conjunction↗

NASA NTRS2004

Rocket Exhaust Cratering: Lessons Learned from Viking and Apollo

During the Apollo and Viking programs NASA expended considerable effort to study the cratering of the regolith when a rocket launches or lands on it. That research ensured the success of those programs but also demonstrated that cratering will be a serious challenge for other mission scenarios. Unfortunately, because three decades have elapsed since NASA last performed a successful retro-rocket landing on a large planetary body - and ironically because Apollo and Viking were successful at minimizing the cratering effects - the space agency has a minimized sense of the seriousness of the issue. The most violent phase of a cratering event is when the static overpressure of the rocket exhaust exceeds the bearing capacity of the soil. This bearing capacity failure (BCF) punches a small and highly concave cup into the surface. The shape of the cup then redirects the supersonic jet - along with a large flux of high-velocity debris - directly toward the spacecraft. This has been observed in terrestrial experiments but never quantified analytically. The blast from such an event will be more than just quantitatively greater than the cratering that occurred in the Apollo and Viking programs. It will be qualitatively different, because BCF had been successfully avoided in all those missions. In fact, the Viking program undertook a significant research and development effort and redesigned the spacecraft specifically for the purpose of avoiding BCF [1]. (See Figure 1.) Because the Apollo and Viking spacecraft were successful at avoiding those cratering effects, it was unnecessary to understand them. As a result, the physics of a BCF-driven cratering event have never been well understood. This is a critical gap in our knowledge because BCF is unavoidable in the Martian environment with the large landers necessary for human exploration, and in Lunar landings it must also be addressed because it may occur depending upon the design specifics of the spacecraft and the weakening of the regolity by gas diffusion.

Metzger, Philip T.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting the propensity for thermally activated β events in metallic glasses via interpretable machine learning

Abstract The elementary excitations in metallic glasses (MGs), i.e., β processes that involve hopping between nearby sub-basins, underlie many unusual properties of the amorphous alloys. A high-efficacy prediction of the propensity for those activated processes from solely the atomic positions, however, has remained a daunting challenge. Recently, employing well-designed site environment descriptors and machine learning (ML), notable progress has been made in predicting the propensity for stress-activated β processes (i.e., shear transformations) from the static structure. However, the complex tensorial stress field and direction-dependent activation could induce non-trivial noises in the data, limiting the accuracy of the structure-property mapping learned. Here, we focus on the thermally activated elementary excitations and generate high-quality data in several Cu-Zr MGs, allowing quantitative mapping of the potential energy landscape. After fingerprinting the atomic environment with short- and medium-range interstice distribution, ML can identify the atoms with strong resistance or high compliance to thermal activation, at a high accuracy over ML models for stress-driven activation events. Interestingly, a quantitative “between-task” transferring test reveals that our learnt model can also generalize to predict the propensity of shear transformation. Our dataset is potentially useful for benchmarking future ML models on structure-property relationships in MGs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Arctic Coastal Erosion: Modeling and Experimentation

Increasing Arctic coastal erosion rates have put critical infrastructure and native communities at risk while also mobilizing ancient organic carbon into modern carbon cycles. Although the Arctic comprises one-third of the global coastline and has some of the fastest eroding coasts, current tools for quantifying permafrost erosion are unable to explain the episodic, storm-driven erosion events. Our approach, mechanistically coupling oceanographic predictions with a terrestrial model to capture the thermo-mechanical dynamics of erosion, enables this much needed treatment of transient erosion events. The Arctic Coastal Erosion Model consists of oceanographic and atmospheric boundary conditions that force a coastal terrestrial permafrost environment in Albany (a multi-physics based finite element model). An oceanographic modeling suite (consisting of WAVEWATCH III, Delft3D-FLOW, and Delft3D-WAVE) produced time-dependent surge and run-up boundary conditions for the terrestrial model. In the terrestrial model, a coupling framework unites the mechanical and thermal aspects of erosion. 3D stress/strain fields develop in response to a plasticity model of the permafrost that is controlled by the frozen water content determined by modeling 3D heat conduction and solid-liquid phase change. This modeling approach enables failure from any allowable deformation (block failure, slumping, etc.). Extensive experimental work has underpinned the ACE Model development including field campaigns to measure in situ ocean and erosion processes, strength properties derived from thermally driven geomechanical experiments, as well as extensive physical composition and geochemical analyses. Combined, this work offers the most comprehensive and physically grounded treatment of Arctic coastal erosion available in the literature. The ACE model and experimental results can be used to inform scientific understanding of coastal erosion processes, contribute to estimates of geochemical and sediment land-to-ocean fluxes, and facilitate infrastructure susceptibility assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Higher-order moments of the elliptic flow distribution in PbPb collisions at $ \sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV

The hydrodynamic flow-like behavior of charged hadrons in high-energy lead-lead collisions is studied through multiparticle correlations. The elliptic anisotropy values based on different orders of multiparticle cumulants, v$_{2}${2k}, are measured up to the tenth order (k = 5) as functions of the collision centrality at a nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of $ \sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}} $ = 5.02 TeV. The data were recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 0.607 nb$^{–1}$. A hierarchy is observed between the coefficients, with v$_{2}${2} > v$_{2}${4} ≳ v$_{2}${6} ≳ v$_{2}${8} ≳ v$_{2}${10}. Based on these results, centrality-dependent moments for the fluctuation-driven event-by-event v$_{2}$ distribution are determined, including the skewness, kurtosis and, for the first time, superskewness. Assuming a hydrodynamic expansion of the produced medium, these moments directly probe the initial-state geometry in high-energy nucleus-nucleus collisions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Future Changes in Snowpack, Snowmelt, and Runoff Potential Extremes Over North America

Snowpack and snowmelt-driven extreme events (e.g., floods) have large societal consequences including infrastructure failures. However, it is not well understood how projected changes in the snow-related extremes differ across North America. Using dynamically downscaled regional climate model (RCM) simulations, we found that the magnitudes of extreme snow water equivalent, snowmelt, and runoff potential (RP; snowmelt plus precipitation) decrease by 72%, 73%, and 45%, respectively, over the continental United States and southern Canada but increase by up to 8%, 53%, and 41% in Alaska and northern Canada by the late 21st century. In California and the Pacific Northwest, there is a notable increase in extreme RP by 21% contrary to a decrease in snowmelt by 31% by the late century. These regions could be vulnerable to larger rain-on-snow floods in a warmer climate. Regions with a large variability among RCM ensembles are identified, which require further investigation to reduce the regional uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

High Time Resolution Modelled and Measured New Particle Formation Rates During the 2023 Pittsburgh, PA Campaign

Particle size distributions are used to calculate nucleation rates during new particle formation (NPF). However, the low time resolution and poor sensitivity of instruments deployed to observe particle size distributions can lead to inaccurate estimates of nucleation rates. We calculated nucleation rates in Pittsburgh, PA from particle size distributions measured with the new high time resolution Condensation Particle Counters For Atmospheric Rapid Measurements (CPC FARM) and from gas precursor concentrations measured with a chemical ionization mass spectrometer. The CPC FARM nucleation rates were calculated by examining the appearance rate of particles in the smallest size bin at 1.6 nm. The nucleation rate of 1.6 nm determined every second resulted in positive and negative rates, indicating the influence of inhomogeneous mixing and advection of precursor gases and clusters. These effects are not currently considered when estimating nucleation rates from measurements. The nucleation rates from the CPC FARM were compared to the nucleation rates determined from a transient acid‐base reaction model using measured sulfuric acid concentration, strong base concentrations, and CPC detection efficiencies. The transient form of the model allowed the advection of heterogeneously mixed precursors to influence the nucleation rate. Good agreement between particle and gas‐based nucleation rates is observed during sulfuric acid‐driven NPF events. This study demonstrates that high time resolution measurements of short‐lived and rapidly formed particles are needed to accurately capture nucleation rates, which are likely influenced by advection of nucleation precursors and clusters in heterogeneous environments such as urban areas.

Cheng, D. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (↗

DOE OSTI2024

Test and characterization of finely segmented pixel CZT detectors for future hard x-ray missions

The NuSTAR (Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array) mission was launched in 2012, and it has successfully deployed the first orbiting telescopes to focus high energy X-ray (3 - 79 keV) light, providing a wealth of new information on high-energy X-rays sources. Follow-up missions, such as the proposed HEX-P, BEST, and FORCE, could perform a deeper black hole census providing a more refined measurement of black hole spins, allowing for greater knowledge about supermassive black holes. Here, these missions are motivated by the recent breakthroughs in the hard X-ray mirror technologies, where mirrors, either made of monolithic silicon segments, or made directly or via replication of shells, demonstrate the feasibility of making hard X-ray mirrors with angular resolutions of 5-10 arc-seconds Half Power Diameter (HPD) compared to the NuSTAR’s 1 arc-minute HPD. Such a high angular resolution requires matched detectors with higher degree of segmentation to fully benefit from the achievable improved spatial resolution. In the above framework, the HEXID ASIC, a novel pixelated front-end suitable for reading out a finely segmented CZT sensor with 150 μm pixel pitch in a hexagonal arrangement has been developed. This readout pixelated chip is capable of processing photon-generated charge packets over a large dynamic range (from 2 keV up to 180 keV), while keeping a low input noise (ENC <20 e - ). In this work, the initial characterization of the ASIC prototype will be presented.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Supporting Risk-informed Decision-making During Reactor Accidents

Uncertainty in severe accident evolution and outcome is driven by event bifurcations that represent distinctive challenges to defensive layers and tend to promote the emergence of discrete classes of core damage and accident risk. This discrete set of "attractor" states arise from the complex networks of competing physical phenomena and conditional event cascades occurring as the overall system degrades – a process that yields increasing degrees of freedom and accident progression pathways. Characterization of these event spaces has proven elusive to more traditional data interrogation methods, but proves tractable by application of more advanced data collection and machine learning approaches. Through application of these approaches we demonstrate a conceptual framework that enables real-time/robust, risk-informed decision-making support to improve accident mitigation and encourage “graceful exits” during low probability, extreme events limiting accident consequences. In this analysis, we simulated over 8,000 short-term station blackout (STSBO) accidents with the state-of-the-art integral severe accident code, MELCOR, and demonstrate the potential for ML approaches to predict simulation outcomes. We chose to pair ML tools with interpretable and mechanistic event trees for the considered STSBO accident space to predict the likelihood of future event paths along the tree. In addition to the current state of the system, we use information from recent trajectories of temperature, pressure, and other physical features, combining both the current state and past trajectories to forecast future event paths. Finally, we simulate the random injection of variable amounts of water to quantify the efficacy of available actions at reducing risks along the many branches in the event tree. We identify scenarios and windows of opportunity to mitigate risk as well as scenarios in which such actions are unlikely to alter the accident end-state.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

An efficient hybrid downscaling framework to estimate high-resolution river hydrodynamics

Flow depth and velocity are the most important hydrodynamic variables that govern various river functions, including water resources, navigation, sediment transport, and biogeochemical cycling. Existing high-resolution flow depth simulations rely on either computationally expensive river hydrodynamic models (RHMs) or data-driven models with formidable training costs, whereas data-driven modeling of flow velocity has rarely been explored. Here, using the hybrid Low-fidelity, Spatial analysis, and Gaussian process learning (LSG) model, we developed a downscaling approach to construct high-resolution flow depth and velocity from a two-dimensional (2-D) RHM simulation at coarse resolution. The LSG models were trained and tested in an urban watershed in Houston using two different hurricane-driven flood events. The high-resolution (as fine as 30 m resolution) and low-resolution (mostly 1000 m resolution) meshes include 664 724 and 14 536 grid cells, respectively. The results showed that through downscaling, the simulation errors were reduced to less than one-fourth and one-third of the errors of the low-resolution 2-D RHM for flow depth and velocity, respectively. Our analysis further revealed that the dominant uncertainty sources of the downscaled hydrodynamics are different, with flow velocity dominated by the dimensionality reduction error, which we reduced by using a regionalized training procedure. The downscaling approach achieves an 84-fold acceleration in computational time compared to the high-resolution 2-D RHM, making high-fidelity ensemble flood modeling feasible. More importantly, the developed method provides an opportunity to couple large-scale hydrodynamical processes with local physical, chemical, and biological processes in river models.

Tan, Zeli [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (↗

NASA NTRS1999

Mesoscale Variations of Biogeochemical Properties in the Sargasso Sea

A mesoscale resolution biogeochemical survey was carried out in the vicinity of the US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study (BATS) site during the summer of 1996. Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of the flow field facilitated adaptive sampling of several eddy features in the area. Variations in upper ocean nutrient and pigment distributions were largely controlled by vertical isopycnal displacements associated with the mesoscale field. Shoaling density surfaces tended to introduce cold, nutrient-rich water into the euphotic zone, while deepening isopycnals displaced nutrient-depleted water downward. Chlorophyll concentration was generally enhanced in the former case and reduced in the latter. Eddy-induced upwelling at the base of the euphotic zone was affected by features of two different types captured in this survey: (1) a typical mid-ocean cyclone in which doming of the main thermocline raised the near-surface stratification upward; and (2) a mode water eddy composed of a thick lens of 18 C water, which pushed up the seasonal thermocline and depressed the main thermocline. Model hindcasts using all available data provide a four-dimensional context in which to interpret temporal trends at the BATS site and two other locations during the two weeks subsequent to the survey. Observed changes in near-surface structure at the BATS site included shoaling iscpycnals, increased nutrient availability at the base of the euphotic zone, and enhanced chlorophyll concentration within the euphotic zone. These trends are explicable in terms of a newly formed cyclone that impinged upon the site during this time period. These observations reveal that eddy upwelling has a demonstrable impact on the way in which the nitrate-density relationship changes with depth from the aphotic zone into the euphotic zone. A similar transition is present in the BATS record, suggesting that eddy-driven upwelling events are present in the time series of upper ocean biogeochemical properties. The variability in main thermocline temperature and nitrate in this synoptic spatial survey spans the range observed in these quantities in the 10-year time series available at BATS to date (1988-1998).

McGillicuddy Dennis J., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Mesoscale Variations of Biogeochemical Properties in the Sargasso Sea

A mesoscale resolution biogeochemical survey was carried out in the vicinity of the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site during the summer of 1996. Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of the flow field facilitated adaptive sampling of several eddy features in the area. Variations in upper ocean nutrient and pigment distributions were largely controlled by vertical isopycnal displacements associated with the mesoscale field. Shoaling density surfaces tended to introduce cold, nutrient-rich water into the euphotic zone, while deepening isopycnals displaced nutrient-depleted water downward. Chlorophyll concentration was generally enhanced in the former case and reduced in the latter. Eddy-induced upwelling at the base of the euphotic zone was affected by features of two different types captured in this survey-, (1) a typical mid-ocean cyclone in which doming of the main thermocline raised the near-surface stratification upward and (2) a mode water eddy composed of a thick lens of 18C water, which pushed up the seasonal thermocline and depressed the main thermocline. Model hindcasts using all available data provide a four-dimensional context in which to interpret temporal trends at the BATS site and two other locations during the 2 weeks subsequent to the survey. Observed changes in near-surface structure at the BATS site included shoaling isopycnals, increased nutrient availability at the base of the euphotic zone, and enhanced chlorophyll concentration within the cuphotic zone. These trends are explicable in terms of a newly formed cyclone that impinged upon the site during this time period. These observations reveal that eddy upwelling has a demonstrable impact on the way in which the nitrate-density relationship changes with depth from the aphotic zone into the euphotic zone. A similar transition is present in the BATS record, suggesting that eddy-driven upwelling events are present in the time series of upper ocean biogeochemical properties. The variability in main thermocline temperature and nitrate in this synoptic spatial survey spans the range observed in these quantities in the 10-year time series available at BATS to date (1988-1998).

McGillicuddy, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Development of Life on Early Mars

Exploration of Mars has begun to unveil the history of the planet. Combinations of remote sensing, in situ compositional measurements and photographic observations have shown Mars had a dynamic and active geologic evolution. Mars geologic evolution encompassed conditions that were suitable for supporting life. A habitable planet must have water, carbon and energy sources along with a dynamic geologic past. Mars meets all of these requirements. The first 600 My of Martian history were ripe for life to develop because of the abundance of (i) Water- as shown by carved canyons and oceans or lakes with the early presence of near surface water shown by precipitated carbonates in ALH84001, well-dated at ~3.9 Gy, (ii) Energy from the original accretional processes, a molten core which generated a strong magnetic field leaving a permanent record in the early crust, active volcanism continuing throughout Martian history, and continuing impact processes, (iii) Carbon, water and a likely thicker atmosphere from extensive volcanic outgassing (i.e. H20, CO2, CH4, CO, O2, N2, H2S, SO2, etc.) and (iv) crustal tectonics as revealed by faulting and possible plate movement reflected by the magnetic pattern in the crust [1]. The question arises: "Why would life not develop from these favorable conditions on Mars in its first 600 My?" During this period, environmental near-surface conditions on Mars were more favorable to life than at any later time. Standing bodies of water, precipitation and flowing surface water, and possibly abundant hydrothermal energy would favor the formation of early life. (Even if life developed elsewhere on Earth, Venus, or on other bodies-it was transported to Mars where surface conditions were suitable for life to evolve). The commonly stated requirement that life would need hundreds of millions of year to get started is only an assumption; we know of no evidence that requires such a long interval for the development of life, if the proper habitable conditions are meet. Perhaps it could start in a very short interval during the first tens of millions of years after crustal formation. Even with impact-driven extinction events, such a short start-up time would allow life to restart multiple times until it persevered. If panspermia is considered, life could be introduced as soon as liquid surface water was present and could instantly thrive and spread.

Gibson, Everett K.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Modeling Social Influence via Combined Centralized and Distributed Planning Control

Real world events are driven by a mixture of both centralized and distributed control of individual agents based on their situational context and internal make up. For example, some people have partial allegiances to multiple, contradictory authorities, as well as to their own goals and principles. This can create a cognitive dissonance that can be exploited by an appropriately directed psychological influence operation (PSYOP). An Autonomous Dynamic Planning and Execution (ADP&E) approach is proposed for modeling both the unperturbed context as well as its reaction to various PSYOP interventions. As an illustrative example, the unrest surrounding the Iranian elections in the summer of 2009 is described in terms applicable to an ADP&E modeling approach. Aspects of the ADP&E modeling process are discussed to illustrate its application and advantages for this example.

Vaccaro, James↗