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Periodic extinction of families and genera

Eight major episodes of biological extinction of marine families over the past 250 million years stand significantly above local background (P < 0.05). These events are more pronounced when analyzed at the level of genus, and generic data exhibit additional apparent extinction events in the Aptian (Cretaceous) and Pliocene (Tertiary) Stages. Time-series analysis of these records strongly suggests a 26-million-year periodicity. This conclusion is robust even when adjusted for simultaneous testing of many trial periods. When the time series is limited to the four best-dated events (Cenomanian, Maestrichtian, upper Eocene, and middle Miocene), the hypothesis of randomness is also rejected for the 26-million-year period (P < 0.0002).

Non-NASA Center↗

Forecasting Lake-Effect Precipitation in the Great Lakes Region Using NASA Enhanced-Satellite Data

Lake-effect precipitation is common in the Great Lakes region, particularly during the late fall and winter. The synoptic processes of lake-effect precipitation are well understood by operational forecasters, but individual forecast events still present a challenge. Locally run, high resolution models can assist the forecaster in identifying the onset and duration of precipitation, but model results are sensitive to initial conditions, particularly the assumed surface temperature of the Great Lakes. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has created a Great Lakes Surface Temperature (GLST) composite, which uses infrared estimates of water temperatures obtained from the MODIS instrument aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites, other coarser resolution infrared data when MODIS is not available, and ice cover maps produced by the NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab (GLERL). This product has been implemented into the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model Environmental Modeling System (WRF-EMS), used within forecast offices to run local, high resolution forecasts. The sensitivity of the model forecast to the GLST product was analyzed with a case study of the Lake Effect Storm Echinacea, which produced 10 to 12 inches of snowfall downwind of Lake Erie, and 8 to 18 inches downwind of Lake Ontario from 27-29 January 2010. This research compares a forecast using the default Great Lakes surface temperatures from the Real Time Global sea surface temperature (RTG SST), in the WRF-EMS model to the enhanced NASA SPoRT GLST product to study forecast impacts. Results from this case study show that the SPoRT GLST contained less ice cover over Lake Erie and generally cooler water temperatures over Lakes Erie and Ontario. Latent and sensible heat fluxes over Lake Ontario were decreased in the GLST product. The GLST product decreased the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), which can be correlated to the decrease in temperatures and heat fluxes. A slight increase in precipitation coverage was noted over Lake Erie due to a decrease in ice cover. Both the RTG SST and the GLST products predicted the precipitation south of the actual location of precipitation. This single case study is the first part of an examination to determine how MODIS data can be applied to improve model forecasts in the Great Lakes region.

Cipullo, Michelle↗

Biomass Burning and Fossil Fuel Apportionment via Greenhouse Gas Enhancement Ratios Over Southeast Asia as Measured During ASIA-AQ

As Southeast Asian economies continue to grow, so will their contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, driven primarily by increases in fossil fuel combustion. Left unchecked, these emissions will negatively impact air quality and climate, therefore it is imperative that emission sources are properly identified and accounted for in emission inventories. Enhancement ratios of GHGs have been used to characterize regional emissions as either dominated by fossil fuel combustion or biomass burning. In particular, airborne assessment of short-term continuous emission ratios has proven useful to quantify relative contributions of fossil fuel and biomass burning to GHG emissions. The 2024 Airborne and Satellite Investigation of Asian Air Quality (ASIA-AQ) campaign, flying over the Philippines, Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan, sampled a variety of emissions including significant biomass burning, local urban pollution, and transport events. This work will explore the impact of GHG emissions on the distinctive pollution of the sampled locations. As airborne GHG measurements over Southeast Asia are scarce if not nonexistent, this work provides a crucial link between established ground-based measurements and state-of-the-art satellite observations such as those from South Korea’s Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS). Analysis of GHG enhancement ratios in East Asia will lead to more accurate emission inventories which can be used to implement more effective GHG control measures leading to improved air quality and minimizing the effect on climate.

ASIA-AQ↗

Developing Nontraditional Partnerships to Disseminate the Space Science Story

NASA Space Science Days (NSSD) was established in 2004 to bring the story of the Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) to a community far removed from areas NASA traditionally serves. The original NSSD invited 400 5th and 8th graders from the Texas Rio Grande Valley area to the University of Texas Brownsville campus to participate in a one day Saturday event filled with information about MER with related hands on activities. Currently the program has grown to over 700 5th and 8th grade participants who are mentored by trained university students from several Texas universities and community colleges and growing to include universities from throughout the U.S. A collaboration between three major institutions: The NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science Directorate (ARES), the Society of Hispanic Professional Engineers/Advancing Hispanic Excellence in Technology Engineering, Math, and Science, (SHPE/AHETEMS), and the University of Texas at Brownsville (UTB) has been established to enable the dissemination of Solar System related educational materials throughout the U.S. Already in its 8th year, UTB has developed and tested a NSSD model that has successfully disseminated space science materials to students throughout South Texas Rio Grande Valley. With this newly formed collaboration this model s expansion will allow trained SHPE students and professionals to conduct events throughout its established nation-wide delivery systems. Each year a new NSSD site will be established through an application process solicited from SHPE student and professional chapters. Once a chapter is awarded, upper-level high school and university students will travel to NASA- JSC for a two day workshop where students learn about the current year s theme and are trained to present hands-on activities related to the theme. Additional training by ARES and UTB occurs one month before the new event in their own communities. Both local middle school teachers and mentors are trained locally. This allows the teachers time to prepare their students with the background material for NSSD and give the mentors time to decide which activity they feel comfortable with to lead. Several events using this process have already been successful and an increase in interest from SHPE chapters wanting to establish their NSSD event is growing.

Galindo, Charles↗

A large normal-fault earthquake at the junction of the Tonga trench and the Louisville ridge

Long-period vertical-component Rayleigh waves are inverted in order to determine the source mechanism of the October 10, 1977 earthquake that occurred in the oceanic plate at the junction of the Tonga-Kermadec trench systems with the aseismic Louisville ridge. The cause was predominantly normal faulting on a plane striking roughly parallel to the trench, with a seismic moment of 1.7 x 10 to the 27th dyn cm. A focal depth of 20 km is determined by waveform modeling, but the actual rupture may have extended to 30 or 40 km. Two sources separated by 16 s comprised the event, which experienced an inferred rupture velocity of 3.5 km/sec. The interpretation that the earthquake was caused by gravitational pull due to the sinking slab implies that the Louisville ridge causes some degree of local decoupling between the plates. This event may be associated with the breakup of the Osbourn seamount. Alternatively, the earthquake may have resulted from tensional plate bending stress, as implied by its relatively shallow depth.

Eissler, H.↗

The Long-term Transport and Radiative Impacts of the 2017 British Columbia Pyrocumulonimbus Smoke Aerosols in the Stratosphere

Interactions of meteorology with wildfires in British Columbia, Canada during August 2017 led to three major pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events that resulted in the injection of large amounts of smoke aerosols and other combustion products at the local upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). These plumes of UTLS smoke with elevated values of aerosol extinction and backscatter compared to the background state were readily tracked by multiple satellite-based instruments as they spread across the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The plumes were observed in the lower stratosphere for about 8-10 months following the fire injections, with a stratospheric aerosol e-folding time of about 5 months. To investigate the radiative impacts of these events on the Earth system, we performed a number of simulations with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). Observations from multiple remote-sensing instruments were used to calibrate the injection parameters (location, amount, composition and heights) and optical properties of the smoke aerosols in the model. The resulting simulations of three-dimensional smoke transport were evaluated for a year from the day of injections using daily observations from OMPS-LP (Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite Limb Profiler). The model simulated rate of ascent, hemispheric spread and residence time (or e-folding time) of the smoke aerosols in the stratosphere are in close agreement with OMPS-LP observations. We found that both aerosol self-lofting and the large-scale atmospheric motion play important roles in lifting the smoke plumes from near the tropopause altitudes (~12 km) to about 22-23 km into the atmosphere. Further, our estimations of the radiative impacts of the pyroCb-emitted smoke aerosols showed that the smoke caused an additional warming of the atmosphere by about 0.6-1 W/m2 (zonal mean) that persisted for about 2-3 months after the injections in regions north of 40oN. The surface experienced a comparable magnitude of cooling. The atmospheric warming is mainly located in the stratosphere, coincident with the location of the smoke plumes, leading to an increase in zonal mean shortwave (SW) heating rates of 0.02-0.04 K/day during September 2017.

pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events↗

Terrestrial ionospheric signatures of field-aligned currents

The occurrence of traveling field-aligned current filaments and twin-vortex patterns is suggested to be related to sudden changes in solar wind dynamic pressure and/or the IMF. Greenland magnetometer observations of the cleft region magnetic perturbations associated with small-scale twin-vortex patterns show that these events occur on both sides of the magnetic local noon, contradicting Glassmeier at al.'s (1989) statistical analysis of 82 twin-vortex subauroral-latitude events obtained by the Scandinavian Magnetometer Array; the stations are closer to the ionospheric projection of the cleft earlier in magnetic local time, relative to the across-the-cleft-located Greenland stations.

Friis-Christensen, E.↗

On propagation direction of ring current proton ULF waves observed by ATS 6 at 6.6 R sub E

From June 11 to September 16, 1974, the NOAA low-energy proton detector on board the ATS 6 satellite observed 71 cases of ultralow-frequency oscillations of proton flux intensities. The oscillation periods varied from 40 s to 6 min, and the events were observed most frequently during moderate geomagnetic conditions. The flux oscillations occurred at various local times, yet almost two thirds of the events were detected in the near-dusk region of the magnetosphere. For a majority of the events in this set a substantial phase shift in flux oscillation was detected between different energy channels and/or between two oppositely oriented detector telescopes. The phase shift is mainly due to the finite gyroradius effect of the protons gyrating in the geomagnetic field. By examining this finite gyroradius effect on the perturbed particle distribution function associated with the wave in a nonuniform magnetic field, the propagation direction of the wave from particle observations made by a single spacecraft is determined

Su, S.-Y.↗

Delay Line Detectors for the UVCS and Sumer Instruments on the SOHO Satellite

Microchannel plate based detectors with cross delay line image readout have been rapidly implemented for the SUMER and UVCS instruments aboard the Solar Orbiting Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission to be launched in July 1995. In October 1993 a fast track program to build and characterize detectors and detector control electronics was initiated. We present the detector system design for the SOHO UVCS and SUMER detector programs, and results from the detector test program. Two deliverable detectors have been built at this point, a demonstration model for UVCS, and the flight Ly alpha detector for UVCS, both of which are to be delivered in the next few weeks. Test results have also been obtained with one other demonstration detector system. The detector format is 26mm x 9mm, with 1024 x 360 digitized pixels, using a low resistance Z stack of microchannel plates (MCP's) and a multilayer cross delay line anode (XDL). This configuration provides gains of approximately 2 x 10(exp 7) with good pulse height distributions (less than 50% FWHM) under uniform flood illumination, and background levels typical for this configuration (approximately 0.6 event cm (exp -2)sec(exp -1)). Local counting rates up to about 400 events/pixel/sec have been achieved with no degradation of the MCP gain. The detector and event encoding electronics achieves about 25 millimeter FVHM with good linearity (plus or minus approximately 1 pixel) and is stable to high global counting rates (greater than 4 x 10(exp 5) events sec(exp -1)). Flat field images are dominated by MCP fixed pattern noise and are stable, but the MCP multifiber modulation usually expected is uncharacteristically absent. The detector and electronics have also successfully passed both thermal vacuum and vibration tests.

Seigmund, O. H. W.↗

Venus 'lightning' signals reinterpreted as in situ plasma noise

This paper presents detailed evidence in support of the earlier suggestion by Taylor et al. (1985, 1986) that the 100-Hz noise (or LW events) detected by the Pioneer Venus Orbiter across the nightside of Venus should not be unconditionally interpreted as evidence of 'lightning' at Venus. It is shown that the statistical behavior of the electric field noise is consistent with the interpretation that the noise source is local to the spacecraft; the LW events result from the plasma instabilities through which the Orbiter passes. It is also shown that the occurrence of the LW events attributed to lightning decreases significantly at altitudes below about 180 km. The noise is most frequently observed near 180-200 km; the irregularities in this region are interpreted as a result of the nightside interaction of the solar wind/IMF with the ionosphere.

Taylor, Harry A., Jr.↗

Effective structural impact detection and localization using convolutional neural network and Bayesian information fusion with limited sensors

Due to their unpredictable nature, many impact events (e.g., overheight vehicles striking on bridges) go unnoticed or get reported many hours later. However, they can induce structural failures or hidden damage that accelerates the structure’s long-term degradation. Therefore, prompt impact detection and localization strategies are essential for early warning of impact events and rapid maintenance of structures. Most existing impact detection strategies are developed for aircraft composite panels utilizing high-rate synchronized measurement from densely deployed sensors. Limited efforts have been made for infrastructure or human habitats which generally require large-scale but low-rate measurement. In particular, due to harsh environments (e.g., deep space habitats under meteoroids), structural impact localization must be robust to limited sensors (e.g., sensor damage during impacts) and multi-source errors (e.g., measurement errors). In this study, an effective impact detection and localization strategy is proposed using a limited number of vibration measurements, especially in harsh environments (e.g. in deep space). Convolutional neural networks are trained for each sensor node and are fused using Bayesian theory to improve the accuracy of impact localization. Special considerations are paid to evaluate the effect of both measurement error and modeling error in the analysis. The proposed strategy is illustrated using 1D structure, and further validated in 3D geodesic dome structure numerically. The results demonstrate that it can detect and localize impact events accurately and robustly on structures.

Yuguang Fu↗

A validation of satellite derived cyanobacteria detections with state reported events and recreation advisories across U.S. lakes

Cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) negatively affect ecological, human, and animal health. Traditional methods of validating satellite algorithms with data from water samples are often inhibited by the expense of quantifying cyanobacteria indicators in the field and the lack of public data. However, state recreation advisories and other recorded events of cyanoHAB occurrence reported by local authorities can serve as an independent and publicly available dataset for validation. State recreation advisories were defined as a period delimited by a start and end date where a warning was issued due to detections of cyanoHABs over a state’s risk threshold. State reported events were defined as any event that was documented with a single date related to cyanoHABs. This study examined the presence-absence agreement between 160 state reported cyanoHAB advisories and 1,343 events and cyanobacteria biomass estimated by a satellite algorithm called the Cyanobacteria Index (CI(cyano)). The true positive rate of agreement with state recreation advisories was 69% and 60% with state reported events. CI(cyano) detected a reduction or absence in cyanobacteria after 76% of the recreation advisories ended. CI(cyano) was used to quantify the magnitude, spatial extent, and temporal frequency of cyanoHABs; each of these three metrics were greater (r > 0.2) during state recreation advisories compared to non-advisory times with effect sizes ranging from small to large. This is the first study to quantitatively evaluate satellite algorithm performance for detecting cyanoHABs with state reported events and advisories and supports informed management decisions with satellite technologies that complement traditional field observations.

remote sensing↗

Temporal Constraint Reasoning With Preferences

A number of reasoning problems involving the manipulation of temporal information can naturally be viewed as implicitly inducing an ordering of potential local decisions involving time (specifically, associated with durations or orderings of events) on the basis of preferences. For example. a pair of events might be constrained to occur in a certain order, and, in addition. it might be preferable that the delay between them be as large, or as small, as possible. This paper explores problems in which a set of temporal constraints is specified, where each constraint is associated with preference criteria for making local decisions about the events involved in the constraint, and a reasoner must infer a complete solution to the problem such that, to the extent possible, these local preferences are met in the best way. A constraint framework for reasoning about time is generalized to allow for preferences over event distances and durations, and we study the complexity of solving problems in the resulting formalism. It is shown that while in general such problems are NP-hard, some restrictions on the shape of the preference functions, and on the structure of the preference set, can be enforced to achieve tractability. In these cases, a simple generalization of a single-source shortest path algorithm can be used to compute a globally preferred solution in polynomial time.

Khatib, Lina↗

Lava Eruption and Emplacement: Using Clues from Hawaii and Iceland to Probe the Lunar Past

Investigating recent eruptions on Earth is crucial to improving understanding of relationships between eruption dynamics and final lava flow morphologies. In this study, we investigated eruptions in Holuhraun, Iceland, and Kilauea, Hawaii to gain insight into the lava dynamics near the source vent, the initiation of lava channels, and the origin of down-channel features. Insights are applied to Rima Bode on the lunar nearside to deduce the sequence of events that formed this lunar sinuous rille system.These insights are crucial to correctly interpreting whether the volcanic features associated with Rima Bode directly relate to eruption conditions at the vent and, thus, can help us understand those eruption dynamics, or, alternatively, whether the features formed as a result of more localized influences on lava flow dynamics. For example, if the lava channel developed early in the eruption and was linked to pulses in vent activity, its morphology can be analyzed to interpret the flux and duration of the eruption. Conversely, if the lava channel initiated late in the eruption as the result of a catastrophic breaching of lava that had previously pooled within the vent [e.g., 1], then the final channel morphology will not indicate eruption dynamics but rather local dynamics associated with that breach event. Distinguishing between these two scenarios is crucial for correctly interpreting the intensity and duration of volcanic history on the Moon.

sinuous rille↗

Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

Bauman, William H., III↗

Lava Eruption and Emplacement: Using Clues from Hawaii and Iceland to Probe the Lunar Past

Investigating recent eruptions on Earth is crucial to improving understanding of relationships between eruption dynamics and final lava flow morphologies. In this study, we investigated eruptions in Holuhraun, Iceland, and Kilauea, Hawaii to gain insight into the lava dynamics near the source vent, the initiation of lava channels, and the origin of down-channel features. Insights are applied to Rima Bode on the lunar nearside to deduce the sequence of events that formed this lunar sinuous rille system. These insights are crucial to correctly interpreting whether the volcanic features associated with Rima Bode directly relate to eruption conditions at the vent and, thus, can help us understand those eruption dynamics, or, alternatively, whether the features formed as a result of more localized influences on lava flow dynamics. For example, if the lava channel developed early in the eruption and was linked to pulses in vent activity, its morphology can be analyzed to interpret the flux and duration of the eruption. Conversely, if the lava channel initiated late in the eruption as the result of a catastrophic breaching of lava that had previously pooled within the vent [e.g., 1], then the final channel morphology will not indicate eruption dynamics but rather local dynamics associated with that breach event. Distinguishing between these two scenarios is crucial for correctly interpreting the intensity and duration of volcanic history on the Moon.

Needham, Debra Hurwitz↗

Mechanisms and Consequences of Intra-Crystalline Enrichment of Ancient Radiogenic Pb in Detrital Hadean Zircons from the Jack Hills, Western Australia

The recent discovery of Pb* (radiogenic lead) -enriched domains (PEDs) in zircon using high-resolution scanning ion imaging, atom probe tomography and transmission electron microscopy indicates that the U-Pb isotopic system in zircon can be affected not only by Pb* loss but also by intra-crystalline Pb* enrichment. However, the formation mechanism of PEDs and the consequences for in-situ U-Pb dating remain elusive. To further understand these issues, scanning ion imaging and U-Pb dating were carried out on 51 Hadean detrital zircon grains from the Jack Hills, Western Australia. Of these, 8 grains were found to contain micrometer-scale PEDs with elevated Pb-207 and Pb-206 in the ion images. Isotope profiles across these PEDs confirm that they represent unsupported Pb* resulting from intra-grain mobilization and local enrichment of Pb* during ancient overprinting events. The PEDs are rare in most grains, with only 1 – 3 Pb* hotspots present in any ~70 μm × 70 μm imaged area, and are located either in dark-CL, high-U growth zones, or associated with bright-CL, low-Th recrystallized domains, suggesting that they were likely formed by local-scale processes. The PEDs located in dark-CL, high-U growth zones likely resulted from Pb* trapped in local, interconnected pathways produced by radiation damage during thermal overprinting events. Those associated with bright-CL, low-Th domains are interpreted as Pb* concentrated in nanoscale pores formed during fluid-present recrystallization of non-metamict zircon. Our interpretations therefore imply that intra-crystalline enrichment of Pb* in zircon can occur at various scales and through diverse mechanisms. Age calculations based on the ion images demonstrate that incorporation of PEDs in conventional in-situ SIMS spots produces spuriously old ages that are either reversely discordant or concordant, depending on the time of Pb* mobilization and the analytical precision. The implication is that careful investigation of intra-grain distribution of U-Th-Pb isotopes is required in order to better understand the U-Pb isotopic system and to obtain reliable crystallization ages for ancient zircons affected by complex Pb* mobilization and redistribution.

Unsupported radiogenic lead↗

Scintillation Effects on Space Shuttle GPS Data

Irregularities in ionospheric electron density result in variation in amplitude and phase of Global Positioning System (GPS) signals, or scintillation. GPS receivers tracking scintillated signals may lose carrier phase or frequency lock in the case of phase sc intillation. Amplitude scintillation can cause "enhancement" or "fading" of GPS signals and result in loss of lock. Scintillation can occur over the equatorial and polar regions and is a function of location, time of day, season, and solar and geomagnetic activity. Mid latitude regions are affected only very rarely, resulting from highly disturbed auroral events. In the spring of 1998, due to increasing concern about scintillation of GPS signals during the upcoming solar maximum, the Space Shuttle Program began to assess the impact of scintillation on Collins Miniaturized Airborne GPS Receiver (MAGR) units that are to replace Tactical Air Control and Navigation (TACAN) units on the Space Shuttle orbiters. The Shuttle Program must determine if scintillation effects pose a threat to safety of flight and mission success or require procedural and flight rule changes. Flight controllers in Mission Control must understand scintillation effects on GPS to properly diagnose "off nominal" GPS receiver performance. GPS data from recent Space Shuttle missions indicate that the signals tracked by the Shuttle MAGR manifest scintillation. Scintillation is observed as anomalous noise in velocity measurements lasting for up to 20 minutes on Shuttle orbit passes and are not accounted for in the error budget of the MAGR accuracy parameters. These events are typically coincident with latitude and local time occurrence of previously identified equatorial spread F within about 20 degrees of the magnetic equator. The geographic and seasonal history of these events from ground-based observations and a simple theoretical model, which have potential for predicting events for operational purposes, are reviewed.

Goodman, John L.↗