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Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of globalscenarios regarding future socio-economic and climate developments, combiningshared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes asdescribed by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was createdby the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP–RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China'sfuture anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC is designed tointegrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamicprojection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The modelcontains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projectionmodule and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rateprojection module provides the standardized and unified future energyscenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy systemmodel. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global ChangeAssessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply inChina under different SSP–RCP scenarios at the provincial level. Theemission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, theMulti-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China andaccurately tracks the evolution of future combustion and production technologiesand control measures under different environmental policies. We developedtechnology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g.coal-fired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportationsectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleetturnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annualbasis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios(SSP1–5), five RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and threepollution control scenarios (business as usual, BAU; enhanced controlpolicy, ECP; and best health effect, BHE) to produce six combined emissionscenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's futureemissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We foundthat, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollutioncontrol policy (i.e. SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major airpollutants (i.e. SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , and non-methane volatile organic compounds – NMVOCs) in China willbe reduced by 34%–66% in 2030 and 58%–87% in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play a more important rolein continuous emission reduction until 2050. In contrast, China's emissionswill remain at a high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without activeactions (i.e. SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set from theCMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates ofemission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the harmonized CMIP6 emissions dataset in2020–2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Real-time optimization of multi-cell industrial evaporative cooling towers using machine learning and particle swarm optimization

Existing electrical generating stations must operate with greater flexibility due to increasing renewable energy penetration on the electrical grid, and many coal-fired power stations have transitioned away from baseload operation to load-following operation to aid in grid stability. In cases where multiple independently controlled cooling tower cells are used in parallel for the cooling purposes of such stations, there is an opportunity to increase plant efficiency through data-driven optimization across their full load ranges. This work presents a novel application of real-time optimization using machine learning and particle swarm optimization on a multi-cell induced-draft cooling tower servicing a coal-fired power station under variable load. This is the first work to demonstrate simultaneous optimization of a multi-cell cooling tower, in addition to using machine learning for closed-loop control on a cooling tower. A novel control configuration is presented that ensures original control logic is not adversely affected and that the overall plant process is not disrupted using only existing hardware and operational data. To verify this methodology, the 12 independent cooling tower cells are simulated in parallel using historic operating data to demonstrate the effectiveness of real-time optimization compared to current practice. An artificial neural network is trained to predict overall cooling tower power consumption using only operational data and ambient conditions with an R2 value of greater than 0.96. The real-time optimization using particle swarm yields 6.7% annual energy usage savings compared to current practices, although the extent of the real-time savings varies greatly with both plant load and environmental conditions. This is particularly significant for a variable load situation because frequent ramping typically results in reduced overall efficiency. Furthermore, this proposed AI-based solution presents an opportunity to improve the overall heat rate of a load-following coal-fired power plant without the need to perform extensive first-principles modeling or add additional hardware to the cooling tower, resulting in more resources conserved and less overall emissions per unit of electricity generated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Potential reductions in fine particulate matter and premature mortality following implementation of air pollution controls on coal-fired power plants in India

Coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) account for > 70% of electricity generation in India, but < 5% of facilities have installed technologies for sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) and nitrogen oxide (NO X ) removal. Emissions of these pollutants lead to the formation of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and an increased risk of premature mortality for exposed populations. Here, we use a nested version of the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (0.5° × 0.625° resolution) for India to estimate reductions in PM 2.5 concentrations that could have been achieved by implementing existing emission control technologies like flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) and/or selective catalytic reduction (SCR). We quantify the associated burden of disease using the integrated exposure response (IER) and global exposure mortality model (GEMM) functions and compare the costs of premature mortality to those for FGD installation. Model simulations for 2010 suggest installation of FGD would have reduced mean annual PM 2.5 concentrations across India by 8%, compared to 3% with SCR installation, and 11% with both FGD and SCR. A 7–28% reduction in PM 2.5 was simulated for local communities closest to CFPPs (same model grid cell), leading to up to 17% reduction in annual premature mortality. Overall, more than 0.21–0.48 million premature deaths would have been avoided over a 10-year period if FGD had been implemented on all CFPPs, compared to 0.09–0.21 million with SCR and 0.22–0.72 million with both FGD and SCR. Benefits associated with such actions are approximately $\$18.1$–$\$604$ billion USD per year, which is equivalent to ~ 0.44 to 10% of India’s GDP. These results suggest that monetary benefits from avoided premature mortality far outweigh the capital and operational costs of FGD and/or SCR installation of $\$19.5$ billion and/or $\$32.8$ billion per year, respectively. This information is essential because the high costs of installation and operation are often given as reasons for delaying installation and commissioning. Finally, we conclude that policy actions to control air pollution from CFPPs are economically justifiable.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Analysis of Nuclear Fuel Cycle Data

Electricity generated using nuclear power accounted for 18.9% of all electricity consumed in the United States in 2021, putting it in third place behind natural gas (38%) and coal (22%) power plants. Nuclear power plants boast a significantly higher uptime or capacity factor—90% and above—compared to 49.1% for coal fired power plants and 56.6% for natural gas power plants. Renewable energy sources, such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind electricity, have lower capacity factors: 24.9% and 36.3%, respectively. In addition, nuclear power is cleaner than both coal and natural gas fired power plants. With the passing of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, significant tax credits will be claimed by producers of hydrogen with well-to-gate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions below 0.45 kg CO 2e /kg H 2 . This has sparked interest in using clean sources of electricity, including nuclear power, to generate H 2 via water electrolysis. As uranium is a primary fuel for modern nuclear power plants, the upstream emissions from nuclear fuel production greatly impact the GHG emissions related to all nuclear power end use. Therefore, it is important to accurately determine the upstream emissions associated with the nuclear fuel cycle of nuclear power production in the United States. In this analysis, the nuclear fuel cycle was separated into distinct steps to allow better understanding of the chemical and energy inputs at each step of the fuel cycle. This also provides details of the GHG emissions at each step in the nuclear fuel cycle. The transportation distance for each step of the fuel cycle was updated to account for the locations of uranium processing facilities along the supply chain of the current U.S. nuclear power plants. Finally, all the updated values were incorporated into Argonne National Laboratory’s Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Technologies (GREET) model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Biodiesel and higher value products from stillage fiber

Global climate change - due largely to the emission of anthropic CO2 - has been recognized by the scientific community for many decades and is becoming increasingly obvious to the public due to extremely hot summers, drought, and frequent fires. Destruction of tropical forests especially contributes to climate change and loss of species diversity.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Downscaled CMIP5 projections of physical fire risk understate historical trends

Reliable projections of wildfire risk are important for multi-sector impacts analysis. Statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Earth system model ensemble products are routinely used to analyze regional physical wildfire risk, but evaluations of historical observed trends and variability are lacking. Here, we evaluate physical fire risk over the western United States using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) by comparing model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), statistically downscaled via the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) approach, against the observational target dataset gridMET, a gridded high-resolution surface meteorological product. We analyze multidecadal trends and interannual variability in seasonal average FWI for the historical period and future projections under two emissions scenarios, and we compare MACA-CMIP5 ensemble results with a simple time series model that generates historical and future projections of seasonal FWI based on bootstrapping observed historical trends and variability. Our findings indicate that MACA-CMIP5 accurately captures the magnitude and spatial patterns of seasonally averaged FWI but tends to underestimate historical decadal trends. We show that future increases in fire risk may be underestimated relative to the simple time series model that projects historical variability into the future. We also highlight that model biases in relative humidity contribute significantly to model-data differences. Our results underscore the importance of historical hindcasting exercises for informing broader multi-sector applications.

FWI↗

Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model

Abstract. Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) plays a critical role in wildfire dynamics, but little is known about responses of LFMC to multivariate climate change, e.g., warming temperature, CO2 fertilization, and altered precipitation patterns, leading to a limited prediction ability of future wildfire risks. Here, we use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate LFMC dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. We parameterize the model based on observed shrub allometry and hydraulic traits and evaluate the model's accuracy through comparisons between observed and simulated LFMC of three plant functional types (PFTs) under current climate conditions. Moreover, we estimate the number of days per year of LFMC below 79 % (which is a critical threshold for wildfire danger rating of southern California chaparral shrubs) from 1960 to 2099 for each PFT and compare the number of days below the threshold for medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). We find that climate change could lead to more days per year (5.2 %–14.8 % increase) with LFMC below 79 % between the historical (1960–1999) and future (2080–2099) periods, implying an increase in wildfire danger for chaparral shrubs in southern California. Under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario during the dry season, we find that the future LFMC reductions mainly result from a warming temperature, which leads to 9.1 %–18.6 % reduction in LFMC. Lower precipitation in the spring leads to a 6.3 %–8.1 % reduction in LFMC. The combined impacts of warming and precipitation change on fire season length are equal to the additive impacts of warming and precipitation change individually. Our results show that the CO2 fertilization will mitigate fire risk by causing a 3.5 %–4.8 % increase in LFMC. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in LFMC and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radionuclide surrogate aerosolization, resuspension and suppression in hazardous situations

Radioactive fire following nuclear accidents causes resuspension of radioactive contamination that can spread over large areas. Although many papers focus on particle deposition and resuspension, a limited number of studies model its suppression. Even less data is available for the comparison of emissions across particle size, surface, and mode of resuspension. In this study, cerium dioxide surrogate for internal hazards such as radionuclide particle matter was aerosolized into a large chamber and subsequently resuspended after sedimentation. Resuspension was induced by common modes of human movement including walking, wind, and driving on common surfaces including polyvinyl chloride (PVC), artificial grass (turf), and concrete in a 5.8 m long, 3.7 m wide and 3 m high tent. The resuspension was experimentally measured for two particle sizes (1 and 10 μm) at three different heights (0.3 m, 1.2 m, and 2.4 m) and compared across size, surface, and mode of resuspension. Particle size distribution was measured using an aerodynamic particle sizer and the resuspended particles were collected with the wetted wall cyclone aerosol collector and quantitated using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The testing was repeated with the F-500 fire retardant application to study its effect on resuspension. In this study, artificial grass flooring was found to generate the most resuspension, with walking on turf for the 1 μm particle testing yielding the highest factor overall. Concrete had the lowest resuspension, showing variations in the size distribution of aerosol as a function of height from the source resuspension factors. The application of fire retardant was found to significantly reduce surrogate resuspension, regardless of resuspension method or testing surface. Here, the results provide impactful information regarding the different modes of resuspension including human transport (walking and driving) and wind for the resuspension of radionuclide surrogate particles deposited onto common surfaces and the effect of fire retardant application on their resuspension, leading to higher levels of safety for nuclear energy plants and facilities.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Biphasic solvents for post-combustion CO 2 capture from natural gas flue Gas

Fossil fuel fired power plants are generally expected to remain one of the most significant global sources of electricity for decades to come. Consequently, carbon management technologies are needed to reduce or eliminate ongoing emissions from these sources. Amongst the many techniques for carbon capture, aqueous amine-based absorbents (monoethanolamine, MEA, in particular) are, presently, considered the leading technology for post-combustion CO 2 point-source capture. These technologies are nevertheless limited by their high capital and regeneration energy costs. Biphasic solvents have been identified as an attractive alternative to traditional MEA based absorbents due to their potential energy savings. Thus far, however, the research on biphasic solvents has largely focused on their performance in coal flue gas while more dilute natural gas flue gas applications have received relatively little attention. Here, this work examines the performances of two novel biphasic solvent blends, diethylenetriamine (DETA) and triethylenetetramine (TETA), in CO 2 capture from a natural gas flue gas simulant. Across several regeneration tests, both solvents achieved considerable energy savings over the benchmark MEA solution. Specifically, the energy consumption per mol CO 2 recovered for the DETA-based and TETA-based solvents was 46 % and 35 % less than that of the benchmark MEA solution, respectively. Molecular dynamics simulations were also performed to gain a deeper understanding of the phase separation phenomena that occur as a consequence of CO 2 absorption. These simulations indicated that phase change was driven by the strong interaction between the absorption products and water, while the degree of separation depended on the CO 2 loading.

Biphasic solvents↗

Dynamic infrared gas analysis from longleaf pine fuel beds burned in a wind tunnel: observation of phenol in pyrolysis and combustion phases

Pyrolysis is the first step in a series of chemical and physical processes that produce flammable organic gases from wildland fuels that can result in a wildland fire. We report results using a new time-resolved Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) method that correlates the measured FTIR spectrum with an infrared thermal image sequence, enabling the identification and quantification of gases within different phases of the fire process. The flame from burning fuel beds composed of pine needles (Pinus palustris) and mixtures of sparkleberry, fetterbush, and inkberry plants was the natural heat source for pyrolysis. Extractive gas samples were analyzed and identified in both static and dynamic modes synchronized to thermal infrared imaging: a total of 29 gases were identified including small alkanes, alkenes, aldehydes, nitrogen compounds, and aromatics, most previously measured by FTIR in wildland fires. This study presents one of the first identifications of phenol associated with both pre-combustion and combustion phases using ca. 1 Hz temporal resolution. Preliminary results indicate ~2.5× greater phenol emissions from sparkleberry and inkberry compared to fetterbush, with differing temporal profiles.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Low-Carbon District Heating: Performance Modeling of Hybrid Solar, Heat Pump, and Thermal Storage Systems for District Thermal Energy in the United States

District heating requires thermal energy in the temperature range of 40 degrees C - 120 degrees C. Typically, the thermal energy input for these systems has largely been met through fossil energy. However, the temperature range is low enough that it presents an opportunity for low-carbon technologies such as solar thermal and electrified thermal generators like heat pumps to decarbonize the heat generation. In this paper, a heat pump model was applied to estimate the performance and economics of a real-world low-carbon district heating substation. This system is comprised of a flat plate solar collector field paired with a mechanical vapor compression heat pump and hot water thermal storage, augmented by gas-fired boilers. Plant data was used to tune the model and estimate the system's benefits in terms of both standard financial metrics (IRR and payback), and environmental metrics, including avoided CO2 emissions. The model is subsequently employed to estimate the technical and economic potential of solar + heat pump + ther-mal storage hybrid systems as retrofits for district heating systems in eight US Markets.

district heating↗

Volatile Organic Compounds and Meteorological Conditions in the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) Site, 2023

This data set contains measurements of atmospheric components and meteorological conditions of central Missouri, United States during the summer of 2023. Data serve to examine the impact of meteorological conditions relevant to future climate on the emission and transformation of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). During the field campaign, researchers were also able to incorporate opportunistic analyses of the long-range transport of smoke plumes generated from extreme forest fire activities in Canada. VOC measurements were conducted at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site (latitude 38.7441, longitude −92.2000) using a proton transfer reaction time of flight mass spectrometer (PTR-ToF-MS 6000 X2). The sampling campaign was conducted during the summer of 2023 (2023-06-25 to 2023-08-12) with measurements being taken at high temporal resolution (1 hour). Particular VOCs analyzed include: Methanol, Acetonitrile, Acetone, Isoprene, Methylvinyl ketone (MVK) and methacrolein (MACr), Benzene, Toluene, Catechol, and Monoterpene. Meteorological parameters included in this dataset were collected from a nearby Columbia Regional Airport (~10 km). Global solar radiation data were measured at a weather site in Ashland, MO, 5.22 km from the MOFLUX tower. The data were accessed using the MesoWest online website (https://mesowest.utah.edu/) provided by the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah. Discussion of the data providers, database, and dissemination were highlighted in prior studies (Horel et al., 2002a; Horel et al., 2002b) . Smoke mixing ratios (in mg m−3) were estimated from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) 3 km weather model for Missouri at 6-hour intervals (Dowell et al., 2022). This dataset contains three data files in comma separate (*.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: three data dictionaries and a file-level metadata file in comma separate (*.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

Acetone↗

Development of a 300 MWe Utility Scale Oxy-Fuel sCO2 Turbine

A 300 MWe direct-fired supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) oxy-fuel turbine is being developed that will burn natural gas-fired, coal syngas and even hydrogen mixtures capable of 1,150ºC turbine inlet temperature at 300 bar. This design will significantly improve the state-of-the-art for thermal efficiency and results in a high-pressure stream of CO2 with 98%+ carbon capture, making the power plant near emission-free and more efficient than Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) plants with carbon capture. This power plant will be capable of burning coal through gasification and cleanup of the synthesis gas (syngas). sCO2 power cycles are a transformational technology for the energy industry, providing higher efficiency heat source energy conversion for conventional and alternative energy sources. This novel cycle significantly reduces capital costs because of smaller equipment footprints, design modularity, and allows for rapid cyclic load and source following to balance solar and wind energy power swings. Oxy-fuel sCO2 cycles take these advantages even further, utilizing higher firing temperatures, improved efficiency, and simpler carbon capture strategies. This turbine will require cooled turbine nozzles and blades as well as advanced thermal management systems to accommodate these high temperatures. The cooled blade heat transfer correlations required new test programs at higher Reynolds number than air-breathing gas turbines for impingement, serpentine, and pin-fin regions. Novel blade optimization was performed to maximize aerodynamic efficiency, while minimizing cooling flows. A turbine layout was generated utilizing individual combustor cans with cooled liners feeding into a 6-stage axial flow turbine with cooled stator nozzles and turbine blades. The case design and thermal management preliminary design will be described.

Moore, Jeffrey↗

SimCCS 3.0 User GUIDE

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is an important technology aimed at reducing CO 2 emissions and contributing to the mitigation strategies of climate change. The process involves three main steps: CO 2 capture, transport, and storage. Specifically, CO 2 is captured from industrial facilities, such as coal-fired power plants and natural gas processing plants. It is then transported through infrastructure networks, such as pipelines, rails, and ships, and injected into underground geological formations, such as depleted oil and gas reservoirs or deep saline aquifers, for permanent storage. The entire CCS value chain encompasses multiple components, including CO 2 sources, transport networks, and storage sites. The proper design of CCS transport infrastructure is an essential step for the deployment of CCS technology. However, the design is not a trivial process, as it presents many challenges and requires consideration of numerous economic, social, and environmental factors.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Slipstream Testing of Amine-Based Solvents at a Low-Rank Coal-Fired Power Plant

Conference presentation for 38th Annual International Pittsburgh Coal Conference, Virtual, September 20–23, 2021. To better assess mitigation strategies for aerosol reduction to extend solvent life, the University of North Dakota Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) installed a pilot-scale CO 2 absorption system at a lignite-fired plant in central North Dakota. The pilot-scale system was operated using both commercial KS-1™ solvent and advanced KS-21™ solvent provided by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI). MHI’s proprietary amine emission reduction unit (AERU™) technology was installed downstream of the absorber columns to reduce solvent losses by recovering amines at the system outlet. Fine particulate loading was measured throughout the capture system with and without a WESP operating and using both solvents. Captured particulate was brought back to the EERC to be analyzed for chemical composition and to be examined by scanning electron microscopy for particulate structure. These variables were then correlated to performance of particulate control devices in reducing aerosol formation and solvent losses.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Topical Report – Findings on Subtask 2.7 – Wet ESP and Aerosol Testing at Coal Creek Station

Growing concerns over the impact of CO 2 emissions from combustion sources on global climate change have prompted numerous research and development projects aimed at developing cost-effective technologies for CO 2 capture. One family of technologies being demonstrated at pilot and full scale globally is postcombustion carbon capture (PCCC) systems that employ amine-based solvents. The captured CO 2 can be compressed and permanently stored underground or used for enhanced oil recovery. The proximity of North Dakota’s lignite-fired fleet of power plants to potential CO 2 storage options creates a unique atmosphere for PCCC within the state. However, the unique components present in lignite flue gas present a challenge for large-scale PCCC at North Dakota power plants by contributing to aerosol formation. Aerosols can negatively impact the long-term performance of amine-based solvents for CO 2 capture. Amine-based solvents are volatile, and flue gas particulate provides nucleation sites where amine vapors can condense as aerosols. Because aerosols cannot be easily captured at the column outlet using conventional technologies, the amine-laden aerosols escape the system and lead to accelerated solvent losses. Moreover, particulate components can chemically react with amines to form degradation products that can permanently deactivate the amine, cause fouling, and lead to hazardous emissions. Many of the elements that have been shown to catalyze solvent degradation are present in lignite coals and can exacerbate solvent replacement economics. Understanding this issue is critical to the implementation of solvent-based CO 2 capture systems as applied to lignite-fired generation systems. The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) designed and carried out this project to fully characterize aerosol behavior with various control technologies installed to better optimize aerosol mitigation technology for CO 2 capture. To meet the goal of this project, the following objectives were identified: Determine the effectiveness of a wet electrostatic precipitator (WESP) on mitigating formation of problematic aerosols at Great River Energy’s Coal Creek Station, upstream of the PCCC system. Determine the effectiveness of the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) proprietary amine emission reduction unit (AERU) as a postcapture solvent recovery system for reducing aerosol emissions and extending solvent life downstream of the PCCC system. Determine the impact of aerosols on the efficiency and degradation products of both commercial and advanced solvents within the PCCC system. Work was conducted at Coal Creek Station Unit 1 using a slipstream of flue gas from the outlet of the plant’s flue gas desulfurization (FGD) unit. Flue gas was routed through a pilot-scale FGD unit to remove SO 2 to very low levels (~1 ppm) and then through a direct contact cooler (DCC) to further cool the gas and to remove moisture. The gas exiting the DCC was then optionally routed through a WESP before passing to the CO 2 absorber columns. The MHI solvent was used to scrub CO 2 from the slipstream through a set of two absorber columns. The rich solvent was regenerated in a stripper column by heating to drive off captured CO 2 . Flue gas exiting the absorber column was routed to MHI’s proprietary AERU to recover entrained solvent. The system operated using a catch-and-release method where the CO 2 was separated to provide data on the process, but the captured CO 2 was released back into the host site stack. Particulate was measured, collected, and analyzed from multiple locations throughout the pilot-scale system. Unlike the performance observed in prior work, the inlet FGD and DCC did not remove significant particulate matter from the flue gas. This appears to be due to a difference in the nature of the particulate. The DCC seemed to increase particulate size and count, most likely owing to water condensing onto the surfaces of fly ash particles. When the WESP was operated, it achieved >95% particulate capture. Very little particulate matter or indications of solvent were detected at the AERU outlet. When operating with advanced KS 21 solvent, the particulate material at the AERU outlet was even further decreased. Solvent analysis showed that some species derived from flue gas and ash were slowly concentrating in the solvent over the duration of the test. The levels observed were reported to be within expected ranges and were not of concern to MHI. A high-level techno-economic assessment of installing CO 2 capture at Coal Creek Station suggested that, when using a standard monoethanolamine (MEA)-based solution with simple heat integration, the energy penalty to net generation would be 34%. The bulk of this was due to steam losses for regenerating solvent, followed by parasitic electrical demand for CO 2 compression and then by increased parasitic load for pushing flue gas through the absorber column. These demands could be decreased with a more advanced solvent that exhibits lower heat of regeneration and lower pressure drop than does a simple MEA solution. Further energy could be saved with more thorough heat integration to recover useful energy from the steam used for solvent regeneration. Installing a WESP was predicted to increase the cost of electricity by nearly $5/MWh. This would become cost-effective if solvent losses were roughly 10 times the baseline estimate when not using a WESP but could be returned to baseline by installing the WESP. Piping CO 2 for storage in more favorable geology could help with carbon capture and storage economics. Although storing off-site would necessitate construction of a CO 2 transport pipeline, the cost of this pipeline might be more than offset by reducing the number of wells required, the depths of the wells required, and the electrical demand for the CO 2 compressor. Additional factors that favor off-site storage costs include smaller expected CO 2 plume sizes, which translates to less monitoring and fewer landowner agreements. More detailed assessment of the specific geology in the region under and around Coal Creek Station would be needed to accurately assess the costs and benefits of different storage site options. This subtask was cofunded through the Energy & Environmental Research Center–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission.

Strege, Joshua↗

Investigation of powertrain system decarbonization using electrically assisted turbocharging and hybridization in off-road vehicles

In recent years, the causes, effects, and existential threat of a global anthropogenic climate shift have drawn significant attention and stimulated mitigation efforts from all genres of scientific, political, and industrial bodies. The greenhouse effect and the detrimental environmental impact of excess greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, like carbon dioxide, is well studied and targeted as the primary culprit for aversive action. However, some fields exist where reducing GHG emissions is met by considerable challenges. One such field is the production and operations of off-road vehicles. Applications of these vehicles are highly diverse and are often characterized by rugged, especially transient, and power intensive duty cycles that make one-fits-all vehicle configuration solutions impractical. This research surveys existing literature to identify the modern technologies packages and challenges that face development and configuration of powertrain systems which currently navigate the regulated emissions and unique duty cycle requirements of this market space. A novel powertrain concept is proposed and evaluated with respect to the pinnacle objectives of load performance improvement, criteria pollutant reduction, and reducing the life cycle GHG intensity of its operation. A sure-fire path to vehicular GHG reduction is through improving the fuel efficiency of internal combustion engines (ICEs), an entrenched component of the off-road vehicle sector. Unfortunately, this is more easily said than done. An approach that has proven successful in this endeavor is engine downsizing and turbocharging, where a larger engine is replaced with a smaller one with added air system boosting via turbocharger to reduce frictional and pumping losses while also enabling access to additional fuel energy. However, practical realization of these potential benefits is often impeded by the transient response capability of the smaller engine across the operating space. For this reason, downsized ICE powertrains have turned to electrified forced induction systems (EFISs) for a decoupling of exhaust energy and engine speed from boost capability. Platformed on 48V hybrid technology, these systems introduce the need for more sophisticated controls around the engine gas-exchange process for the management of boost performance and exhaust gas emissions. On this account, simulation studies utilizing a GT-POWER model of a turbocharged 4.5 L engine outfit with an EFIS using an electrically driven compressor (eBooster®) are conducted to provide insight into the performance of this air handling architecture on an off-road engine. The results show that improvement in transient torque response time in sync with reduction in engine-out soot and NOx emissions are possible with an engine recalibration that leverages the transient air-fuel ratio authority of the eBooster®. Benefits are further demonstrated when duty cycle simulations of the 48V mild-hybrid engine concept are exercised, showing an acute decrease in cumulative fuel usage and soot production. Powertrain hybridization is another technological pathway achieving pronounced GHG reduction successes in modern on-road vehicle applications through integration of Li-ion battery technology. In the off-road vehicle segment, a review of available literature concludes that hybridized architectures are present but generally lack the depth of technologies that have both high specific energy and power capabilities, and thus are limited in their inclusion of Li-ion batteries for ICE assistance and enhanced energy storage capability. Therefore, building on the mild-hybrid engine results, the downsized and eBoosted engine concept was integrated into a larger high-voltage battery-hybrid series-electric powertrain system. Hybrid powertrain parameter sensitivity studies were carried out in a numerical charge-sustaining framework, providing novel insights into power flows between the battery and the engine and how their respective capabilities and operation contribute to GHG and criteria pollutant emissions of diverse duty cycles. Application of supervisory power management introduced robustness into the power sourcing and battery SOC control process and showed that optimum specification of battery properties can yield synergies between GHG emissions and battery energy capacity. Furthermore, examination of recent literature on Li-ion batteries has shown that pack manufacturing is a highly energy intensive process, thereby producing considerable quantities of GHGs that scale with energy storage capacity. Also scaling with a battery’s energy storage capacity is its investment cost. In consideration of these factors, an inclusive technoeconomic and GHG life cycle analysis is conducted. This analysis systematically compares the carbon footprint and total cost of ownership associated with the proposed hybrid powertrain concept to reference and alternative powertrain configurations, facilitating a thorough evaluation of the decarbonization effectiveness and economic viability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗