SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “fire modelling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating post-fire watershed response to varying burn severity and precipitation regimes using fully-distributed and integrated hydrologic models

Wildfires can cause significant changes in vegetation and soil, which may lead to increased surface runoff and soil erosion, thereby affecting water cycling within ecosystems. This study uses the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated and fully distributed hydrologic model at the watershed scale, to examine post-fire hydrologic responses in selected watersheds with varying burn severities in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. The model integrates surface overland flow, subsurface flow, and canopy biophysical processes. We have developed a new fire module in ATS to account for changes in soil hydraulic properties caused by fire in the topsoil layer. Modeling results indicate that, in the year following a high-severity burn, watershed-averaged evapotranspiration decreases by 25%. Additionally, post-fire peak flows increase by 18-29% in watersheds burned with medium to high severity due to changes in soil properties. Conversely, a low-severity burn results in less than a 1% increase in post-fire peak flow. Furthermore, a high-severity fire causes a 38% reduction in the infiltration rate within the affected watershed during the first post-fire wet season. Hypothetical numerical experiments with varying precipitation regimes after a high-severity fire show that post-fire peak flows can increase by 1-29% due to fire-induced changes in soil hydraulic properties. This study highlights the importance of using fully distributed hydrologic models to quantify disturbance-feedback loops, which are essential for understanding the complexities brought about by spatial heterogeneity in post-fire landscapes.

ATS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structural uncertainty assessment for fire-engulfed objects in crosswind: Establishing credibility for a multiphysics wall-modeled large-eddy simulation paradigm

A structural uncertainty validation study for a large-scale, fire-engulfed, elevated object subjected to crosswind is presented to establish the credibility of a high-fidelity, low-Mach, turbulent reacting flow wall-modeled large-eddy simulation (WMLES) approach that includes multiphysics coupling to participating media radiation and conjugate heat transfer. To establish that WMLES can accurately predict surface quantities including drag and pressure coefficient in the low-Mach crosswind regime, a foundational elevated isothermal cylinder validation case is presented at a similar gap-to-diameter ratio of 0.25, spanning the subcritical to supercritical drag regime (Re 𝐷 = 1.1 × 10 5 and 4.3 × 10 5 , respectively). Here, this study exercised both static and dynamic coefficient LES (Smagorinsky and 𝑘 sgs ) with both local and exchange-based velocity sampling. Results showcase that the drag crisis (or the sudden drop in drag coefficient at increased Re 𝐷 ) is well captured when using an exchange-based dynamic coefficient WMLES methodology, while noting lack of mesh convergence and overall drag and pressure coefficient predictively when using a static coefficient, local velocity sampling WMLES. For the 𝒪⁡(10) m JP-8 liquid pool fire crosswind validation study presented, two experimental crosswind configurations (2 m/s and 9.5 m/s) are showcased for a fire-engulfed mock fuselage roughly 4 m in diameter. Using the best model-form practices identified in the isothermal study, dynamic coefficient 𝑘 sgs exchange-based WMLES fire validation findings demonstrate accurate peak irradiation and skin temperature predictions as a function of crosswind magnitude. Excessive yaw in the low-crosswind fuselage configuration, consistent with experimental findings, captured a significant predicted asymmetry in flame attachment and heat flux toward the downwind cylindrical cap—indicative of axial vortex structures transporting the flame along the upper and lower fuselage leeward surface. All fire mesh resolution simulations captured the experimental finding that as crosswind increased, predicted flame shape and peak irradiation magnitude onto the fuselage transitioned from a windward to a leeward cylinder location due to the migration of the upper- to lower-shear fuel/air mixing layer thereby demonstrating the novelty, significance, and credibility of this high-fidelity WMLES reacting flow framework.

Domino, Stefan Paul [Sandia National Laboratories ↗

NASA NTRS2012

Global Burned Area and Biomass Burning Emissions from Small Fires

In several biomes, including croplands, wooded savannas, and tropical forests, many small fires occur each year that are well below the detection limit of the current generation of global burned area products derived from moderate resolution surface reflectance imagery. Although these fires often generate thermal anomalies that can be detected by satellites, their contributions to burned area and carbon fluxes have not been systematically quantified across different regions and continents. Here we developed a preliminary method for combining 1-km thermal anomalies (active fires) and 500 m burned area observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to estimate the influence of these fires. In our approach, we calculated the number of active fires inside and outside of 500 m burn scars derived from reflectance data. We estimated small fire burned area by computing the difference normalized burn ratio (dNBR) for these two sets of active fires and then combining these observations with other information. In a final step, we used the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) biogeochemical model to estimate the impact of these fires on biomass burning emissions. We found that the spatial distribution of active fires and 500 m burned areas were in close agreement in ecosystems that experience large fires, including savannas across southern Africa and Australia and boreal forests in North America and Eurasia. In other areas, however, we observed many active fires outside of burned area perimeters. Fire radiative power was lower for this class of active fires. Small fires substantially increased burned area in several continental-scale regions, including Equatorial Asia (157%), Central America (143%), and Southeast Asia (90%) during 2001-2010. Globally, accounting for small fires increased total burned area by approximately by 35%, from 345 Mha/yr to 464 Mha/yr. A formal quantification of uncertainties was not possible, but sensitivity analyses of key model parameters caused estimates of global burned area increases from small fires to vary between 24% and 54%. Biomass burning carbon emissions increased by 35% at a global scale when small fires were included in GFED3, from 1.9 Pg C/yr to 2.5 Pg C/yr. The contribution of tropical forest fires to year-to-year variability in carbon fluxes increased because small fires amplified emissions from Central America, South America and Southeast Asia-regions where drought stress and burned area varied considerably from year to year in response to El Nino-Southern Oscillation and other climate modes.

Randerson, J. T.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic ecosystem assembly and escaping the “fire trap” in the tropics: insights from FATES_15.0.0

Abstract. Fire is a fundamental part of the Earth system, with impacts on vegetation structure, biomass, and community composition, the latter mediated in part via key fire-tolerance traits, such as bark thickness. Due to anthropogenic climate change and land use pressure, fire regimes are changing across the world, and fire risk has already increased across much of the tropics. Projecting the impacts of these changes at global scales requires that we capture the selective force of fire on vegetation distribution through vegetation functional traits and size structure. We have adapted the fire behavior and effects module, SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE), for use with the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a size-structured vegetation demographic model. We test how climate, fire regime, and fire-tolerance plant traits interact to determine the biogeography of tropical forests and grasslands. We assign different fire-tolerance strategies based on crown, leaf, and bark characteristics, which are key observed fire-tolerance traits across woody plants. For these simulations, three types of vegetation compete for resources: a fire-vulnerable tree with thin bark, a vulnerable deep crown, and fire-intolerant foliage; a fire-tolerant tree with thick bark, a thin crown, and fire-tolerant foliage; and a fire-promoting C4 grass. We explore the model sensitivity to a critical parameter governing fuel moisture and show that drier fuels promote increased burning, an expansion of area for grass and fire-tolerant trees, and a reduction of area for fire-vulnerable trees. This conversion to lower biomass or grass areas with increased fuel drying results in increased fire-burned area and its effects, which could feed back to local climate variables. Simulated size-based fire mortality for trees less than 20 cm in diameter and those with fire-vulnerable traits is higher than that for larger and/or fire-tolerant trees, in agreement with observations. Fire-disturbed forests demonstrate reasonable productivity and capture observed patterns of aboveground biomass in areas dominated by natural vegetation for the recent historical period but have a large bias in less disturbed areas. Though the model predicts a greater extent of burned fraction than observed in areas with grass dominance, the resulting biogeography of fire-tolerant, thick-bark trees and fire-vulnerable, thin-bark trees corresponds to observations across the tropics. In areas with more than 2500 mm of precipitation, simulated fire frequency and burned area are low, with fire intensities below 150 kW m−1, consistent with observed understory fire behavior across the Amazon. Areas drier than this demonstrate fire intensities consistent with those measured in savannas and grasslands, with high values up to 4000 kW m−1. The results support a positive grass–fire feedback across the region and suggest that forests which have existed without frequent burning may be vulnerable at higher fire intensities, which is of greater concern under intensifying climate and land use pressures. The ability of FATES to capture the connection between fire disturbance and plant fire-tolerance strategies in determining biogeography provides a useful tool for assessing the vulnerability and resilience of these critical carbon storage areas under changing conditions across the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Forecasting Fire Season Severity in South America Using Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Fires in South America cause forest degradation and contribute to carbon emissions associated with land use change. We investigated the relationship between year-to-year changes in fire activity in South America and sea surface temperatures. We found that the Oceanic Ni o Index was correlated with interannual fire activity in the eastern Amazon, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index was more closely linked with fires in the southern and southwestern Amazon. Combining these two climate indices, we developed an empirical model to forecast regional fire season severity with lead times of 3 to 5 months. Our approach may contribute to the development of an early warning system for anticipating the vulnerability of Amazon forests to fires, thus enabling more effective management with benefits for climate and air quality.

Chen, Yang↗

NASA NTRS1980

Potential release of fibers from burning carbon composites

A comprehensive experimental carbon fiber source program was conducted to determine the potential for the release of conductive carbon fibers from burning composites. Laboratory testing determined the relative importance of several parameters influencing the amounts of single fibers released, while large-scale aviation jet fuel pool fires provided realistic confirmation of the laboratory data. The dimensions and size distributions of fire-released carbon fibers were determined, not only for those of concern in an electrical sense, but also for those of potential interest from a health and environmental standpoint. Fire plume and chemistry studies were performed with large pool fires to provide an experimental input into an analytical modelling of simulated aircraft crash fires. A study of a high voltage spark system resulted in a promising device for the detection, counting, and sizing of electrically conductive fibers, for both active and passive modes of operation.

Bell, V. L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

International Space Station Bipropellant Plume Contamination Model Update for Short Thruster Pulse Widths

bipropellant↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

International Space Station Bipropellant Plume Contamination Model Update for Short Thruster Pulse Widths

The International Space Station (ISS) Bipropellant Plume Contamination Model has been a vital tool for characterizing the thruster plume-induced contamination environment at the ISS but was not intended to be used for very short thruster pulse widths. This paper presents an updated model that ensures full start-up and shut-down phases are modeled for each thruster firing, when the majority of liquid phase contaminant mass is released. The updated ISS Bipropellant Plume Contamination Model prevents potential under-prediction of thruster plume-induced contamination due to visiting vehicle proximity operations and provides a way to take advantage of thruster start-up and shut-down data performance data gathered during thruster test programs, if available. The International Space Station (ISS) Bipropellant Plume Contamination Model developed by Boeing Space Environments is a semi-empirical model anchored in flight experiment data and has been a vital tool for characterizing the thruster plume-induced contamination environment at the ISS.[1] The current model utilizes flight experiment data from the Plume Impingement Contamination (PIC) and Shuttle Plume Impingement Flight Experiment (SPIFEX) studies, which include Orbiter 3870 N Primary Reaction Control System (PRCS) and Russian 130 N thrusters operating in pulse mode with 80-100 ms.[2] As the next generation of crew and cargo visiting vehicles are developed and arrive at ISS, minimum pulse widths of vehicle thrusters used for ISS proximity operations have decreased significantly below 80 ms. An update to the ISS Bipropellant Contamination Model is needed to prevent potential under-prediction of thruster plume-induced contamination for these very short pulse widths. Contamination due to thruster plumes occurs in the liquid phase (i.e., unburned or partially burned propellant in the plume). Liquid phase releases primarily occur during thruster start-up and shut-down phases, with the steady state phase contributing a small amount to the total contaminant mass released. The current ISS Bipropellant Plume Contamination Model includes functional dependencies on thruster parameters (thrust, mass flow rate, specific impulse (Isp)), distance to receiver surface, and angle off plume centerline. For modeling purposes, contaminant mass released scales linearly with pulse width. This is a conservative approach for pulse widths greater than 80 ms but could under-predict contamination for very short pulse widths (i.e., with little or no steady state phase). This paper presents a model update to add a functional dependency on commanded pulse width to ensure the portion of the pulse spent in start-up and shut-down phases is appropriately modeled, when the majority of liquid phase contaminant mass is released. The updated model prevents potential under-prediction of thruster plume-induced contamination due to visiting vehicle proximity operations while providing a way to take advantage of thruster start-up and shut-down data gathered during test programs, if available. Developing the plume model for a specific thruster using the ISS Bipropellant Plume Contamination Model must be done in consideration of all available thruster performance data. Example thruster data will be used to illustrate this point and options for implementing the model update with existing ISS Bipropellant Plume Contamination Model code will be discussed.

plume contamination↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

International Space Station Bipropellant Plume Contamination Model update for short thruster pulse widths

thruster plumes↗

NASA NTRS2001

Modeling and Prediction of Wildfire Hazard in Southern California, Integration of Models with Imaging Spectrometry

Large urban wildfires throughout southern California have caused billions of dollars of damage and significant loss of life over the last few decades. Rapid urban growth along the wildland interface, high fuel loads and a potential increase in the frequency of large fires due to climatic change suggest that the problem will worsen in the future. Improved fire spread prediction and reduced uncertainty in assessing fire hazard would be significant, both economically and socially. Current problems in the modeling of fire spread include the role of plant community differences, spatial heterogeneity in fuels and spatio-temporal changes in fuels. In this research, we evaluated the potential of Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR) data for providing improved maps of wildfire fuel properties. Analysis concentrated in two areas of Southern California, the Santa Monica Mountains and Santa Barbara Front Range. Wildfire fuel information can be divided into four basic categories: fuel type, fuel load (live green and woody biomass), fuel moisture and fuel condition (live vs senesced fuels). To map fuel type, AVIRIS data were used to map vegetation species using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) and Binary Decision Trees. Green live biomass and canopy moisture were mapped using AVIRIS through analysis of the 980 nm liquid water absorption feature and compared to alternate measures of moisture and field measurements. Woody biomass was mapped using L and P band cross polarimetric data acquired in 1998 and 1999. Fuel condition was mapped using spectral mixture analysis to map green vegetation (green leaves), nonphotosynthetic vegetation (NPV; stems, wood and litter), shade and soil. Summaries describing the potential of hyperspectral and SAR data for fuel mapping are provided by Roberts et al. and Dennison et al. To utilize remotely sensed data to assess fire hazard, fuel-type maps were translated into standard fuel models accessible to the FARSITE fire spread simulator. The FARSITE model and BEHAVE are considered industry standards for fire behavior analysis. Anderson level fuels map, generated using a binary decision tree classifier are available for multiple dates in the Santa Monica Mountains and at least one date for Santa Barbara. Fuel maps that will fill in the areas between Santa Barbara and the Santa Monica Mountains study sites are in progress, as part of a NASA Regional Earth Science Application Center, the Southern California Wildfire Hazard Center. Species-level maps, were supplied to fire managing agencies (Los Angeles County Fire, California Department of Forestry). Research results were published extensively in the refereed and non-refereed literature. Educational outreach included funding of several graduate students, undergraduate intern training and an article featured in the California Alliance for Minorities Program (CAMP) Quarterly Journal.

Roberts, Dar A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predictive Assessment of the Chemical Composition of Coal Ash in Reserve at U.S. Disposal Sites

In the United States, more than 2 Gt of coal combustion residuals (i.e., coal ash) are stored in hundreds of disposal units. Recent federal regulations mandate the closure or retrofitting of most coal ash impoundments, presenting significant challenges for waste management. These regulatory pressures also present opportunities to reuse coal ash. However, the quality and quantity of discarded coal ash across the U.S. are not well known, even though this information is crucial for spurring its reuse for conventional and new material applications. This study describes a predictive model for the major element composition of coal ash in reserve at disposal sites of major U.S. coal-fired power plants. This model was constructed from coal purchase records of 705 power stations from 1973 to 2022 and was trained on coal ash composition data, showing that coal ash elemental composition is strongly associated with the source of feedstock coal. The model showed regional shifts in the major element contents of ash produced by power plants in the last 50 years, particularly for calcium and iron (expressed as %CaO and %Fe2O3), as power stations changed their source of coal over this time frame. Our approach enables an estimation of chemical composition for ash stored in waste impoundments at individual power stations. Such information can help to delineate the regional market resource potential of supplementary cements for concrete and other material innovations that would utilize coal ash harvested from disposal sites across the U.S.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS2017

Mitigating Satellite-Based Fire Sampling Limitations in Deriving Biomass Burning Emission Rates: Application to WRF-Chem Model over the Northern sub-Saharan African Region

Largely used in several independent estimates of fire emissions, fire products based on MODIS sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua polar-orbiting satellites have a number of inherent limitations, including (a) inability to detect fires below clouds, (b) significant decrease of detection sensitivity at the edge of scan where pixel sizes are much larger than at nadir, and (c) gaps between adjacent swaths in tropical regions. To remedy these limitations, an empirical method is developed here and applied to correct fire emission estimates based on MODIS pixel level fire radiative power measurements and emission coefficients from the Fire Energetics and Emissions Research (FEER) biomass burning emission inventory. The analysis was performed for January 2010 over the northern sub-Saharan African region. Simulations from WRF-Chem model using original and adjusted emissions are compared with the aerosol optical depth (AOD) products from MODIS and AERONET as well as aerosol vertical profile from CALIOP data. The comparison confirmed an 30-50% improvement in the model simulation performance (in terms of correlation, bias, and spatial pattern of AOD with respect to observations) by the adjusted emissions that not only increases the original emission amount by a factor of two but also results in the spatially continuous estimates of instantaneous fire emissions at daily time scales. Such improvement cannot be achieved by simply scaling the original emission across the study domain. Even with this improvement, a factor of two underestimations still exists in the modeled AOD, which is within the current global fire emissions uncertainty envelope. Plain Language Summary Polar-orbiting satellites sensors, such as MODIS, have limitations in detecting fires under clouds or when viewing angles are large or in the gaps among satellites' different ground swaths. Here we developed an empirical method to mitigate the effect of these limitations in fire emission estimate. The method is applied to a fire emission inventory (FEER) based on MODIS. We show that, with our method, the adjusted emission inventory improves WRF-Chem simulation of smoke transport and distribution.

emissions properties↗

NASA NTRS2013

Unmanned Vehicle Material Flammability Test

Microgravity combustion phenomena have been an active area of research for the past 3 decades however, there have been very few experiments directly studying spacecraft fire safety under low-gravity conditions. Furthermore, none of these experiments have studied sample and environment sizes typical of those expected in a spacecraft fire. All previous experiments have been limited to samples of the order of 10 cm in length and width or smaller. Terrestrial fire safety standards for all other habitable volumes on earth, e.g. mines, buildings, airplanes, ships, etc., are based upon testing conducted with full-scale fires. Given the large differences between fire behavior in normal and reduced gravity, this lack of an experimental data base at relevant length scales forces spacecraft designers to base their designs using 1-g understanding. To address this question a large scale spacecraft fire experiment has been proposed by an international team of investigators. This poster presents the objectives, status and concept of this collaborative international project to examine spacecraft material flammability at realistic scales. The concept behind this project is to utilize an unmanned spacecraft such as Orbital Cygnus vehicle after it has completed its delivery of cargo to the ISS and it has begun its return journey to earth. This experiment will consist of a flame spread test involving a meter scale sample ignited in the pressurized volume of the spacecraft and allowed to burn to completion while measurements are made. A computer modeling effort will complement the experimental effort. Although the experiment will need to meet rigorous safety requirements to ensure the carrier vehicle does not sustain damage, the absence of a crew removes the need for strict containment of combustion products. This will facilitate the examination of fire behavior on a scale that is relevant to spacecraft fire safety and will provide unique data for fire model validation. This will be the first opportunity to examine microgravity flame behavior at scales approximating a spacecraft fire.

Combustion↗

NASA NTRS2013

Determination of Realistic Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft

This paper expands on previous work that examined how large a fire a crew member could successfully survive and extinguish in the confines of a spacecraft. The hazards to the crew and equipment during an accidental fire include excessive pressure rise resulting in a catastrophic rupture of the vehicle skin, excessive temperatures that burn or incapacitate the crew (due to hyperthermia), carbon dioxide build-up or accumulation of other combustion products (e.g. carbon monoxide). The previous work introduced a simplified model that treated the fire primarily as a source of heat and combustion products and sink for oxygen prescribed (input to the model) based on terrestrial standards. The model further treated the spacecraft as a closed system with no capability to vent to the vacuum of space. The model in the present work extends this analysis to more realistically treat the pressure relief system(s) of the spacecraft, include more combustion products (e.g. HF) in the analysis and attempt to predict the fire spread and limiting fire size (based on knowledge of terrestrial fires and the known characteristics of microgravity fires) rather than prescribe them in the analysis. Including the characteristics of vehicle pressure relief systems has a dramatic mitigating effect by eliminating vehicle overpressure for all but very large fires and reducing average gas-phase temperatures.

combustion↗

NASA NTRS1979

Electrets used in measuring rocket exhaust effluents from the space shuttle's solid rocket booster during static test firing, DM-3

The purpose of this experimental research was to compare Marshall Space Flight Center's electrets with Thiokol's fixed flow air samplers during the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster Demonstration Model-3 static test firing on October 19, 1978. The measurement of rocket exhaust effluents by Thiokol's samplers and MSFC's electrets indicated that the firing of the Solid Rocket Booster had no significant effect on the quality of the air sampled. The highest measurement by Thiokol's samplers was obtained at Plant 3 (site 11) approximately 8 km at a 113 degree heading from the static test stand. At sites 11, 12, and 5, Thiokol's fixed flow air samplers measured 0.0048, 0.00016, and 0.00012 mg/m3 of CI. Alongside the fixed flow measurements, the electret counts from X-ray spectroscopy were 685, 894, and 719 counts. After background corrections, the counts were 334, 543, and 368, or an average of 415 counts. An additional electred, E20, which was the only measurement device at a site approximately 20 km northeast from the test site where no power was available, obtained 901 counts. After background correction, the count was 550. Again this data indicate there was no measurement of significant rocket exhaust effluents at the test site.

Susko, M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Identifying Chemical and Optical Smoke Signatures in Suborbital Observations to Improve Model Projections

Biomass Burning (BB) fires are expected to occur more frequently in the future due to climate change, the build‐up of fuels due to fire suppression, and the expansion of the wildland‐urban interface [Schoennagel et al., 2017; Shivdenko & Schepaschenko, 2013; Stevens et al., 2014; Turner et al., 2019; Yue et al., 2015; Tilman et al., 2001]. Accurate knowledge of the abundance, distribution, and optical properties of absorbing aerosols such as BB smoke is essential to understanding regional and global aerosol radiative effects [Boucher et al., 2013]. It is recognized that differing fuel types (e.g., rice straw, ponderosa pine), combustion modes (i.e., flaming, smoldering or both) and temperature/ moisture content produce smoke with differing optical characteristics (e.g., aerosol light scattering and absorption) and component mixing ratios [e.g., BC, OC and inorganic species such as sulfate, potassium, chloride; Streets et al. 2003; Reid et al., 2005a, b; Janhäll et al., 2010; Sayer et al., 2014]. However, climate models often ascribe a fixed set of emission factors [i.e., amount of particulate for a given species released in the atmosphere per unit dry fuel burned; Darmenov and Dasilva, 2013] and optical properties [Hess et al., 1998] to all BB aerosol plumes, inherently limiting accurate representation of the global and regional heterogeneity of BB. The overarching goal of the proposed work is to improve the microphysical and optical representation of different types of Biomass Burning in Chemistry Transport Models. Our strategy is to capitalize on multiple airborne campaigns (e.g., ARCTAS, SEAC4RS, ORACLES, FIREX-AQ), which sampled different types of BB plumes at different aging stages. Models, when improved and combined with satellite, airborne, and ground observations will help address many aerosol science objectives from the NASA Decadal survey [National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2018].

Meloe Shenandoah F Kacenelenbogen↗

NASA NTRS2012

Reusable Solid Rocket Motor - V(RSRMV)Nozzle Forward Nose Ring Thermo-Structural Modeling

During the developmental static fire program for NASAs Reusable Solid Rocket Motor-V (RSRMV), an anomalous erosion condition appeared on the nozzle Carbon Cloth Phenolic nose ring that had not been observed in the space shuttle RSRM program. There were regions of augmented erosion located on the bottom of the forward nose ring (FNR) that measured nine tenths of an inch deeper than the surrounding material. Estimates of heating conditions for the RSRMV nozzle based on limited char and erosion data indicate that the total heat loading into the FNR, for the new five segment motor, is about 40-50% higher than the baseline shuttle RSRM nozzle FNR. Fault tree analysis of the augmented erosion condition has lead to a focus on a thermomechanical response of the material that is outside the existing experience base of shuttle CCP materials for this application. This paper provides a sensitivity study of the CCP material thermo-structural response subject to the design constraints and heating conditions unique to the RSRMV Forward Nose Ring application. Modeling techniques are based on 1-D thermal and porous media calculations where in-depth interlaminar loading conditions are calculated and compared to known capabilities at elevated temperatures. Parameters such as heat rate, in-depth pressures and temperature, degree of char, associated with initiation of the mechanical removal process are quantified and compared to a baseline thermo-chemical material removal mode. Conclusions regarding postulated material loss mechanisms are offered.

Clayton, J. Louie↗

DOE OSTI2026

Roadmap for the future of extreme wildfire events

Background Extreme wildfire events (EWEs) represent a growing threat globally, posing substantial risks to ecosystems, human communities, and infrastructure. Despite increased recognition of their ecological, social, and economic significance, current definitions of EWEs vary widely, reflecting disciplinary biases and regional contexts. This article emerges from an interdisciplinary workshop convened to reassess and refine the definition of EWEs, examine their impacts across ecological and social dimensions, and identify critical knowledge gaps impeding our understanding of these infrequent but important events. Results Our synthesis highlights significant limitations with existing definitions, particularly their reliance on subjective thresholds and their emphasis on extreme fire behavior alone. EWEs encompass a spectrum of complex, multi-dimensional phenomena that extend beyond immediate biophysical characteristics to include cumulative social, economic, and ecological impacts. These impacts often manifest over extended timeframes and include hazardous environmental contamination, severe geomorphic disturbances, ecosystem transformations, and unintended consequences of post-fire management actions. Current wildfire modeling frameworks inadequately capture these compounding factors, particularly the interactions among social systems, ecological conditions, and extreme fire behavior. To overcome these issues, we advocate for an interdisciplinary and context-sensitive approach to defining and studying EWEs. This revised definition emphasizes wildfires exhibiting anomalies in fire behavior, ecological outcomes, or social impacts relative to historically observed baselines, accommodating variability across different geographic regions and ecological settings. Conclusions Adopting an interdisciplinary framework that integrates biophysical and social sciences will enhance the predictive capability of wildfire models and improve resilience planning and response strategies. Filling identified knowledge gaps—such as limited high-quality empirical fire behavior data and insufficient integration of social dynamics into modeling—will better prepare communities and ecosystems to cope with and adapt to EWEs. This inclusive approach underscores the necessity for collaboration across disciplines and sectors, essential to managing extreme wildfires in an era of increasing climatic and ecological uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗