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DOE OSTI2023

Three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic modeling of auto-magnetizing liner implosions on the Z accelerator

Auto-magnetizing (AutoMag) liners are cylindrical tubes that employ helical current flow to produce strong internal axial magnetic fields prior to radial implosion on ~100 ns timescales. AutoMag liners have demonstrated strong uncompressed axial magnetic field production (>100 T) and remarkable implosion uniformity during experiments on the 20 MA Z accelerator. However, both axial field production and implosion morphology require further optimization to support the use of AutoMag targets in magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments. Data from experiments studying the initiation and evolution of dielectric flashover in AutoMag targets on the Mykonos accelerator have enabled the advancement of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modeling protocols used to simulate AutoMag liner implosions. Implementing these protocols using ALEGRA has improved the comparison of simulations to radiographic data. Specifically, both the liner in-flight aspect ratio and the observed width of the encapsulant-filled helical gaps during implosion in ALEGRA simulations agree more closely with radiography data compared to previous GORGON simulations. Although simulations fail to precisely reproduce the measured internal axial magnetic field production, improved agreement with radiography data inspired the evaluation of potential design improvements with newly developed modeling protocols. Three-dimensional MHD simulation studies focused on improving AutoMag target designs, specifically seeking to optimize the axial magnetic field production and enhance the cylindrical implosion uniformity for MagLIF. Importantly, by eliminating the driver current prepulse and reducing the initial inter-helix gap widths in AutoMag liners, simulations indicate that the optimal 30–50 T range of precompressed axial magnetic field for MagLIF on Z can be accomplished concurrently with improved cylindrical implosion uniformity.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Bayesian optimization of the Community Land Model simulated biosphere-atmosphere exchange using CO 2 observations from a dense tower network and aircraft campaigns over Oregon

Here, the vast forests and natural areas of the Pacific Northwest comprise one of the most productive ecosystems in the northern hemisphere. The heterogeneous landscape of Oregon poses a particular challenge to ecosystem models. We present a framework using a scaling factor Bayesian inversion to improve the modeled atmosphere-biosphere exchange of carbon dioxide. Observations from 5 CO/CO 2 towers, eddy covariance towers, and airborne campaigns were used to constrain the Community Land Model CLM4.5 simulated terrestrial CO 2 exchange at a high spatial and temporal resolution (1/24°, 3-hourly). To balance aggregation errors and the degrees of freedom in the inverse modeling system, we applied an unsupervised clustering approach for the spatial structuring of our model domain. Data from flight campaigns were used to quantify the uncertainty introduced by the Lagrangian particle dispersion model that was applied for the inversions. The average annual statewide net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was increased by 32% to 29.7 TgC per year by assimilating the tropospheric mixing ratio data. The associated uncertainty was decreased by 28.4% to 29%, on average over the entire Oregon model domain with the lowest uncertainties of 11% in western Oregon. The largest differences between posterior and prior CO 2 fluxes were found for the Coast Range ecoregion of Oregon that also exhibits the highest availability of atmospheric observations and associated footprints. In this area, covered by highly productive Douglas-fir forest, the differences between the prior and posterior estimate of NEP averaged 3.84 TgC per year during the study period from 2012 through 2014.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Radiological Shielding Design for the Neutron Backscattering Spectrometer EMU

In this paper we present modelling and design of compact radiation shielding required for operation of the EMU instrument, located at Australia's OPAL nuclear reactor. The acceptance criteria for the shielding design were (i) safety - dose rate ≤ 3 μSv/h at external surfaces of the instrument's experimental area, (ii) floor load limit < 20 tons/m{sup 2}, (iii) low cost and (iv) for maintenance purposes 'easy access' to components of the instruments. The EMU instrument is a cold neutron backscattering spectrometer designed to measure inelastic neutron scattering. Its distinctive feature is that it has a tight elastic energy transfer resolution, of about 1 μeV. The instrument provides unique opportunities to study diffusion in complex materials, e.g. water molecules in confinement, polymers or biological molecules, particularly in the Asia-Oceania region. EMU is the first instrument located on the CG3 neutron beam line of the OPAL Neutron Guide Hall (NGH). A pre-existing evacuated neutron guide of dimensions 200 mm (height) x 50 mm (width) feeds into the shared EMU/KOOKABURRA pre-monochromator bunker shielding assembly, and its bottom cross section will be intercepted ∼200 mm further in air by the highly orientated pyrolytic graphite (HOPG) EMU pre-monochromator (take-off angles from 125.4 deg. to 148 deg.). The bunker shielding assembly for EMU also contains a beryllium filter and Focusing Guide Section D (FGD, 170 mm (height) x 50 mm (width)). To accommodate the range of take-off angles Pb cylindrical shielding blocks of radius 140 mm and 500 mm height have been designed. These blocks will be located at the section of the bunker where the neutron beam will exit towards the experimental area and they will reside on top of a hollow steel base (sides 10 mm thick), on which they move by sliding and are integrated with the tertiary shutter. The experimental area is enclosed by a concrete wall of 2.5 m height and 300 mm thickness, shared with the KOOKABURRA instrument, Gyprock Plasterboard panels with viewing windows, a wall from the Out-of-Pile Bunker and the CG3 shielding. The neutron beam enters the experimental area via the tertiary shutter, into the Focusing Guide Section C (FGC), which has an entrance guide cross-section of 158 mm (height) x 79 mm (width) and exit guide cross-section of 149 mm (height) x 85 mm (width) and is of length 816 mm. The vacuum chamber of FGC will be connected to the vacuum chamber of the Background Chopper (BC, disc of outer radius 350 mm). Focusing Guide Section B (FGB) is aligned with FGC and its vacuum shared with the BC vacuum. The FGB has an exit guide cross section of 50 mm (height) x 49 mm (width) and is of length 4046 mm, which will focus the neutron beam vertically and horizontally towards the Al window entrance (0.82 mm thickness, labelled N16) of the Scattering Tank assembly (constructed from 20 mm - 40 mm thickness stainless steel and will be under vacuum < 1 x 10{sup -3} mbar). Inside the Scattering Tank there is another section of Focusing Guide (FGA), with an exit guide cross-section of 30 mm (height) 30 mm (width) and of length 417 mm. The neutron beam exiting the FGA will be reflected by the HOPG crystal pieces of the Graphite Chopper (GC) towards the Backscattering Monochromator (BM). The reflected neutron beam will first pass through the other Al window (0.82 mm thickness, labelled N17) of the Scattering Tank and then enter into a flight tube (steel of 10 mm thickness). The BM is formed in an 1800 mm spherical radius array of Si crystal elements (0.87 mm thickness) and is oscillated by the linear motor Doppler Drive. The neutron beam will be reflected back at 180 deg. from, and focussed by the BM to reenter the Scattering Tank through the N17 Al window. It will then pass through the GC (HOPG crystals are rotated out of the way) and will reach the scattering sample of interest to the instrument end user. Also, inside the Scattering Tank there will be {sup 3}He linear position-sensitive detectors, and Analyser Arrays formed in an 1800 mm radius spherical arrays of Si crystal elements (0.87 mm thickness) glued on aluminium support frames (10 mm thickness) and span ∼160 deg. arc.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Kinetic simulations underestimate the effects of waves during magnetic reconnection

Collisionless plasma systems are often studied using fully kinetic simulations, where protons and electrons are treated as particles. Due to their computational expense, it is necessary to reduce the ion-to-electron mass ratio $m_i/m_e$ or the ratio between plasma and cyclotron frequencies in simulations of large systems. In this Letter we show that when electron-scale waves are present in larger-scale systems, numerical parameters affect their amplitudes and effects on the larger system. Using lower-hybrid drift waves during magnetic reconnection as an example, we find that the ratio between the wave electric field and the reconnection electric field scales as $\sqrt{m_i/m_e}$, while the phase relationship is also affected. The combination of these effects means that the anomalous drag that contributes to momentum balance in the reconnection region can be underestimated by an order of magnitude. The results are relevant to the coupling of electron-scale waves to ion-scale reconnection regions, and other systems such as collisionless shocks.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantification of regional net CO 2 flux errors in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 model intercomparison project (MIP) ensemble using airborne measurements

Inverse model intercomparison projects (MIPs) provide a chance to assess the uncertainties in inversion estimates arising from various sources. However, accurately quantifying ensemble CO 2 flux errors remains challenging and often relies on the ensemble spread. This study proposes a method for quantifying the errors in regional net surface–atmosphere CO 2 flux estimates from models taken from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 MIP by using independent airborne CO 2 measurements for the period 2015–2017. We first calculate the root mean square error (RMSE) between the ensemble mean of posterior CO 2 concentrations and airborne observations and then isolate the CO 2 concentration errors caused solely by the ensemble mean of posterior net fluxes by subtracting the observation, representation, and transport errors from seven regions. Our analysis reveals that the flux errors projected onto CO 2 space account for 55 %–85 % of the regional average RMSE over the 3 years, ranging from 0.88 to 1.91 ppm. In five regions, the error estimates based on observations exceed those computed from the ensemble spread of posterior fluxes by a factor of 1.33–1.93, implying an underestimation of the actual flux errors, while their magnitudes are comparable in two regions. The adjoint sensitivity analysis identifies that the underestimation of flux errors is prominent where the magnitudes of fossil fuel emissions exceed those of terrestrial-biosphere fluxes by a factor of 3–31 over the 3 years. This suggests the presence of systematic biases in the inversion estimates associated with errors in the prescribed fossil fuel emissions common to all models. Our study emphasizes the value of airborne measurements for quantifying regional errors in ensemble net CO 2 flux estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Description of the code ANVIL (ANisotropic Vhf Impulse Location)

In this paper, we have developed a general, three-dimensional method to locate sources of earth-directed radiation which takes into account the flight paths of reflected signals. While time-of-arrival algorithms exist for locating radio sources using line-of-sight propagation paths, radio sources originating above the surface of the earth will not necessarily emit strong power along direct paths to satellites. A combination of direct and ground-reflected pulses or only ground-reflected signals from such sources could be received by satellite-borne sensors. The work presented here applies to satellite detection of sub-ionospheric radio sources in a vacuum environment with ideal reflection off the earth's surface. Because satellites are not static receivers, their configuration with respect to a radio source is not always optimal. Therefore, a statistical study is performed using 1000 randomized configurations of 24 satellites in middle earth orbit. For each configuration, the radio source latitude and longitude is fixed, and its altitude is varied from 1 to 97 km. An analytic direct-path algorithm using the five satellites nearest the radio source provides an initial guess for the radio source latitude and longitude. We find that, using this approximation, the mean error in the calculated nadir location has a maximum value of 134 m for the 97-km source altitude. The coordinates of the initial guess are used to define the origin of a grid within which an all-points search refinement is performed. Finally, using this procedure, the overall maximum mean error in radio source position is found to be on the order of the computational grid size.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Magnetosphere Evolution and Precursor-driven Electromagnetic Signals in Merging Binary Neutron Stars

We detail new force-free simulations to investigate magnetosphere evolution and precursor electromagnetic (EM) signals from binary neutron stars. Our simulations fully follow a representative inspiral motion, capturing the intricate magnetospheric dynamics and their impact on EM outflows. We explore a range of stellar magnetic moment orientations and relative strengths, finding that the magnetospheres and Poynting flux evolution are strongly configuration dependent. The Poynting flux exhibits pulsations at twice the orbital frequency, 2Ω, and is highly anisotropic, following a power-law dependence on orbital frequency. The index ranges from 1 to 6, shaped by the intricate dynamics of the magnetospheres. Furthermore, we present the first computation of (1) the EM forces acting on the star surfaces, revealing the presence of torques that, for highly magnetized stars, could influence the orbital dynamics or break the crust; (2) the high-energy emission signals from these systems by adopting the established isolated pulsar theory. Assuming curvature radiation in the radiation-reaction limit, we find that photons could reach TeV–PeV energies in the last ∼ms for magnetic field strengths 10 10 –10 15 G. However, our analysis of single photon magnetic pair production suggests that these photons are unlikely to escape, with the MeV band emerging as a promising observational window for precursor high-energy emission. In this framework, we construct high-energy emission skymaps and light curves, exploring observational implications. Finally, we propose potential precursor radio emission and delayed afterglow echoes from magnetized outflows, which may contribute to late-time rebrightening in short gamma-ray bursts or to orphan afterglows.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

The General Antiparticle Spectrometer (GAPS) Antarctic Balloon Payload

The General Antiparticle Spectrometer (GAPS) is an Antarctic stratospheric balloon mission designed to provide unmatched sensitivity to low-energy (<0.25 GeV/n) cosmic-ray antiprotons, antideuterons, and antihelium nuclei as signatures of dark matter. The distinctive GAPS particle identification technique relies on measuring the energy loss along the track of an incoming antinucleus as it slows down and is captured into an exotic atom, and then detecting the de-excitation X-rays and the nuclear annihilation products. This measurement is realized using a Tracker composed of more than 1000 custom silicon strip detectors and a plastic scintillator time-of-flight (TOF) system instrumenting more than 40m$^2$. Together, these subsystems provide the velocity and energy resolution, stopping power, particle tracking, and X-ray identification necessary to distinguish rare antinucleus signals from the abundant positive-nucleus backgrounds, all within the constraints of a high-altitude mission. A multi-loop capillary heat pipe system has been developed to maintain the tracker operating temperature with significant mass and power savings over a conventional pump-based system. The first GAPS science payload flew for 25 days during the 2025/26 NASA Antarctic balloon campaign. We detail the design, integration, and commissioning of the payload prior to flight.

Aoyama, Kazutaka [JAXA, Sagamihara]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Solidification cracking of refractory alloys: a computational and machine learning study to investigate composition-dependence for improved weldability and additive manufacturability

Large-batch numerical, CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD)-based solidification cracking calculations are performed and then analyzed with machine learning methods to generate models that relate chemistry of refractory alloys to cracking susceptibility. Kou’s solidification cracking index is used to study the refractory alloys including O, N, C binary mixtures with Mo, Ta, Nb, and W, the molybdenum-based TZM, Niobium-based C103, and Tantalum-based T111 and Ta-10 W, as well as hypothetical refractory ternary alloys. Findings strongly validate Kou’s Crack Susceptibility Index (CSI) against Varestraint test data for Nb- and Ta-based alloys, establishing CSI thresholds where refractory alloys with CSI < 15,000 K are likely weldable, CSI > 15,000 K are prone to cracking, and CSI > 25,000 K are likely unweldable (or unprintable). Furthermore, interstitial elements C, N, and O significantly increase crack susceptibility, with some existing material specifications coinciding with peak cracking susceptibility concentrations. Finally, machine learning-derived elemental potency factors enable rapid prediction of CSI from alloy chemistry for C103, TZM, Ta-10 W, and T-111 alloys. These results provide practical guidance for feedstock selection, powder reuse limits, and alloy specification amendments for welding and additive manufacturing applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

CO 2 in Ionene–Ionic Liquid Composite Membranes

Abstract Ionene – ionic liquid (IL) composites are promising materials for CO 2 separation, yet a molecular‐level understanding of their structure and its impact on CO 2 speciation, solubility, rotation, and diffusivity remains unclear. Herein, using multimodal nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), time‐of‐flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF‐SIMS), atomic force microscopy (AFM), and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, we reveal that the composites contain IL‐rich domains extending across hundreds of nanometres within the ionene matrix, and these bicontinuous domains span the entire membrane depth. CO 2 also absorbs into the ionene matrix, with the distribution between two CO 2 species varying with temperature and time. The rotational correlation times of these two species are on the timescale of 0.1 and 1 ns, respectively. As IL content increases, the ionic domains expand, resulting in higher CO 2 solubility due to enhanced molecular dynamics and increased free volume in both ionene backbones and IL‐rich regions. Although CO 2 diffusion in the membranes is an order of magnitude slower than in bulk IL, the activation energy for CO 2 diffusion remains comparable. Ionene‐IL composites represent a promising platform for designing CO 2 separation membranes, offering enhanced CO 2 diffusion and selectivity through IL‐rich domains, and increased CO 2 solubility and mechanical integrity from the ionene matrix.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Relativistic gas accretion onto supermassive black hole binaries from inspiral through merger

Accreting supermassive black hole binaries are powerful multimessenger sources emitting both gravitational and electromagnetic (EM) radiation. Understanding the accretion dynamics of these systems and predicting their distinctive EM signals is crucial to informing and guiding upcoming efforts aimed at detecting gravitational waves produced by these binaries. To this end, accurate numerical modeling is required to describe both the spacetime and the magnetized gas around the black holes. In this paper, we present two key advances in this field of research. First, we have developed a novel 3D general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (GRMHD) framework that combines multiple numerical codes to simulate the inspiral and merger of supermassive black hole binaries starting from realistic initial data and running all the way through merger. Throughout the evolution, we adopt a simple but functional prescription to account for gas cooling through photon emission. Next, we have applied our new computational method to follow the time evolution of a circular, equal-mass, nonspinning black hole binary for ∼200 orbits, starting from a separation of 20⁢𝑟 𝑔 and reaching the postmerger evolutionary stage of the system. We have shown how mass continues to flow toward the binary even after the binary “decouples” from its surrounding disk, but the accretion rate onto the black holes diminishes. We have identified how the minidisks orbiting each black hole are slowly drained and eventually dissolve as the binary compresses. We confirm previous findings that the system’s luminosity decreases by a factor of a few during inspiral; however, we observe an abrupt increase by ∼50% in this quantity at the time of merger, likely accompanied by an equally abrupt change in spectrum. Lastly, we have demonstrated that during the inspiral, fluid ram pressure regulates the fraction of the magnetic flux transported to the binary that attaches to the black holes’ horizons.

Accretion disk & black-hole plasma↗

DOE OSTI2026

Movement Models to Predict Low‐Altitude Flight of Soaring Birds Using Look‐Ahead Environmental Factors

Advances in fine-scale movement modeling of soaring birds can aid efforts to understand and resolve the impacts of anthropogenic activities on such birds. Soaring birds often rely on underlying terrain and low-altitude updrafts to govern their flights at rotor-swept altitudes (≤ 200 m above ground level), which puts them at risk of collision with wind turbines. We developed a data-driven Markov model at 1-s resolution that predicts the fine-scale flight behavior of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) as a function of ecological covariates at the current location as well as those within an eagle's line of sight. We only considered ecological covariates that are readily available in real-time (ground elevation and wind conditions). Latent factors (age, sex, species, behavioral intent, migratory status) were intentionally left out of the model. We calibrated the model using golden eagle telemetry data collected in two different ecoregions of the United States. Given a starting location, the calibrated model simulates multiple stochastic 3D paths to produce a time-explicit and spatially explicit risk map of turbine collisions. We discovered an empirical relation between the rate of change of heading and the orographic updraft conditions within an eagle's line of sight. Our model performed most effectively when predicting predominantly-soaring flights at rotor-swept altitudes during wind conditions in which turbines are likely to be operational. The calibrated model could be used in concert with automated eagle detection and turbine curtailment technologies. Specifically, once an eagle is detected by those systems, our model could then provide accurate predictions of turbines the eagle is likely to interact with in the near term.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Ab initio response functions for Cherenkov-based neutron detectors

Neutron time-of-flight diagnostics at the NIF were of late outfitted with Cherenkov detectors. A fused silica radiator delivers sub-nanosecond response time and is optically coupled to a microchannel plate photomultiplier tube with gain from ~1 to 10 4 . Capitalizing on fast time response and gamma-ray sensitivity, these systems can provide better than 30 ps precision for measuring first moments of neutron distributions. Generation of ab initio instrument response functions (IRFs) is critical to meet the <1% uncertainty needed. A combination of Monte Carlo modeling, benchtop characterization, and in situ comparison is employed. Close agreement is shown between the modeled IRFs and in situ measurements using the NIF’s short-pulse advanced radiographic capability beams. First and second moments of neutron spectra calculated using ab initio IRFs agree well with established scintillator measurements. Next-step designs offer increased sensitivity and time-response.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2017

Enabling Explosives and Contraband Detection

We present the design and performance of a proof-of-concept 32 channel material identification system. Our system is based on the energy-dependent attenuation of fast neutrons for four elements: hydrogen, carbon, nitrogen and oxygen. We describe a new approach to obtaining a broad range of neutron energies to probe a sample, as well as our technique for reconstructing the molar densities within a sample. The system's performance as a function of time-of-flight energy resolution is explored using a Geant4-based Monte Carlo. Our results indicate that, with the expected detector response of our system, we will be able to determine the molar density of all four elements to within a 20-30% accuracy in a two hour scan time. In many cases this error is systematically low, thus the ratio between elements is more accurate. This degree of accuracy is enough to distinguish, for example, a sample of water from a sample of pure hydrogen peroxide: the ratio of oxygen to hydrogen is reconstructed to within 8 0.5% of the true value. Finally, with future algorithm development that accounts for backgrounds caused by scattering within the sample itself, the accuracy of molar densities, not ratios, may improve to the 5-10% level for a two hour scan time. Experimental performance was evaluated with various thicknesses of polyethylene. The detector response in terms of energy, particle identification, and timing are presented as well.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predissociation-based measurements of bond dissociation energies: US 2 , OUS, and USe

The uranium-containing molecules US 2 , OUS, and USe have been investigated using a pulsed laser ablation supersonic beam molecular source with time-of-flight mass spectrometric detection. Spectra have been recorded using the resonant two-photon ionization method over the spectroscopic range from 277 to 238 nm. These species have a myriad of excited electronic states in this spectroscopic region, leading to spectra that are highly congested and appear quasicontinuous. Sharp predissociation thresholds are observed, allowing precise bond dissociation energies to be measured. In the case of the triatomic molecules, it was necessary to use one laser for excitation and a delayed laser for ionization in order to observe a sharp predissociation threshold that allowed a precise bond dissociation energy to be measured. The resulting thermochemical values are D 0 (SU-S) = 4.910 ± 0.003 eV, D 0 (OU-S) = 5.035 ± 0.004 eV, and D 0 (USe) = 4.609 ± 0.009 eV. These results provide the first measurement of D 0 (USe) and reduce the error limits in the previous values of D 0 (SU-S) and D 0 (OU-S) by a factor of more than 70.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Biological Cleanliness: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Spacecraft Bioburden Accounting

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

High spatial resolution neutron imaging of lithium-ion batteries: Correlating microstructure and lithium transport

Thick electrodes for lithium-ion batteries can increase the overall energy density, but increasing the electrode thickness introduces charge transport limitations. These limitations may be mitigated through proper electrode structuring. Here, high spatial resolution neutron imaging was used to understand the correlation between microstructure and lithium transport in lithium-ion anodes. Batteries with distinct graphite anode microstructures were produced and studied with high spatial resolution in operando neutron radiography to observe the effects of structure on transport. High spatial resolution neutron computed tomography was performed following in operando neutron radiography. X-ray computed tomography and scanning electron microscopy were used to observe the finer scale anode structure to complement neutron imaging. Solvent-free anodes containing a tightly-packed layered structure confined lithium movement close to the separator. This structure limited capacity, but supported better rate capability. Conversely, a more open pore structure in the wet cast anodes yielded higher capacity with reduced rate capability. Together, these results show that lithium distributions can be controlled by the macroscopic structure of the electrodes, the microstructural pore network, and the microscale active areas that support electrochemical reactions. Furthermore, multimodal imaging applying the complementary strengths of neutron and X-ray methods is shown as a tool for advancing battery design.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗