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At least 235 records · Page 13

Delineation of vulnerable areas to water erosion in a mountain region using SDR-InVEST model: A case study of the Ourika watershed, Morocco

The Ourika watershed is characterized by higher than average flood flows, a rugged topography, a sparse vegetation cover and a friable substrate that makes it vulnerable to soil erosion. Soil is an important non-renewable asset capital, providing several ecosystem services that sustain life through physical and biological regulation processes. The loss, or otherwise, redistribution of biota by soil erosion in the Ourika watershed has received little attention and thus constitutes a key knowledge gap that needs to be addressed. This study quantifies the level of erosion and maps its spatial distribution in the watershed using the Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs model (InVEST3.6.0). The SDR maps the overland sediment generation and delivery to the stream at the watershed level using rainfall, soil properties, topography, cover management and cropping practices as predefined set of input variables. Recommended internal model calibration was used and results were compared to similar studies carried out in different parts of Morocco for validation. The results reveal that 93% of the watershed is subject to a strong rainfall aggressiveness greater than 50 MJ mm ha–1 h–1 yr1 under an average rainfall intensity of 541 mm/year, rainfall capacity to initiate the detachment and transport of soil particles by runoff, and only 11.5% of the watershed area is protected with vegetative cover. We find that overall, the Ourika watershed is losing its soil to erosion at an alarming average rate of 258.48 ton.ha–1.yr–1, a rate well above the tolerable threshold of 7ton.ha–1.yr–1. The spatial distribution of this loss shows areas that need to be urgently remedied. The primary factors for soil erosion in the Ourika watershed appear to be related to the aggressive nature of local rainfall and the inherent susceptibility of soils, which can be costly to this cash-crop region. Because rainfall intensity, soil properties, and topography are intrinsic characteristics of the watershed, we suggest that seasonally adapted cropping rotations that maintains conservative practices with a high cover management may reduce soil erosion in the Ourika watershed.

Erosion↗

H53E: Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management, Including Droughts, Floods, and Associated Water Cycle Extremes I

Water resources management can benefit from applications of remote sensing and hydrologic models. These tools can be especially valuable during extreme events and in data-sparse regions. Observational platforms include the GPM, SMAP, Terra, Aqua, Landsat, GRACE, and Sentinel satellites, and other satellite and airborne platforms. They can support the operational water resources management community in responding to climate change, increases in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events. This session will highlight advances in the use of satellite, airborne and ground-based sensor networks to: measure the quantity/quality of hydrologic resources in the U.S. and internationally; provide information to water managers to improve water resources management; and support risk-based decision making. Topics of interest include (1) extreme events such as floods and droughts; (2) water supply and snow water resource monitoring and forecasting; (3) evapotranspiration, soil moisture, groundwater, and agricultural water management; (4) water quality and (5) global water sustainability.

Remote Sensing↗

A Reference Ocean Surface Emission and Backscatter Model from Microwaves to Infrared

Satellite observations are vital for the initialization of Numerical Weather Prediction models, and very important for climate monitoring and prediction, as well as other applications such as hydrology and flood awareness prediction. Knowledge of radiative contributions from the Earth's surface is needed to sound the lower troposphere from space. The lack of a reference quality ocean emission and backscatter model is a major gap in our ability to provide absolute calibration of the satellite based observing system. Uncertainty in emissivity models is not well characterized and different models are used for different spectral bands, for active and passive instruments. An International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team was put together [4] to address these issues. The objectives of the team are to provide a reference model as a community software (i.e., documented and freely available code), that is maintained and supported, has traceable uncertainty estimations, and that enables new science from microwaves to infrared with bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) capability. We will present the model and its various components, discussing the choices between various parameterizations, building on the LOCEAN model of [2]. The model predictions will be evaluated at various frequencies, including comparisons to radiometric observations by SMAP, AMSR2 and GMI (e.g., [5]). We will discuss early model evaluation in the infrared and for active microwave sensors. Areas of ongoing research include improving the foam parametrization (coverage and emissivity) to provide consistent performances across frequencies, building on [1], and the azimuthal dependence of the active and passive signals. The model will be used to generate training data for fast models e.g., Fastem, [3], that are used in operational data assimilation and climate re-analysis.

Emmanuel Dinnat↗

Developing Land Use Land Cover Maps for the Lower Mekong Basin to Aid Hydrologic Modeling and Basin Planning

This paper discusses research methodology to develop Land Use Land Cover (LULC) mapsfor the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) for basin planning, using both MODIS and Landsat satellitedata. The 2010 MODIS MOD09 and MYD09 8-day reflectance data was processed into monthlyNDVI maps with the Time Series Product Tool software package and then used to classify regionallycommon forest and agricultural LULC types. Dry season circa 2010 Landsat top of atmosphere reflectance mosaics were classified to map locally common LULC types. Unsupervised ISODATAclustering was used to derive most LULC classifications. MODIS and Landsat classifications werecombined with GIS methods to derive final 250-m LULC maps for Sub-basins (SBs) 1–8 of the LMB.The SB 7 LULC map with 14 classes was assessed for accuracy. This assessment compared randomlocations for sampled types on the SB 7 LULC map to geospatial reference data such as Landsat RGBs,MODIS NDVI phenologic profiles, high resolution satellite data, and Mekong River Commissiondata (e.g., crop calendars). The SB 7 LULC map showed an overall agreement to reference data of~81%. By grouping three deciduous forest classes into one, the overall agreement improved to ~87%.The project enabled updated regional LULC maps that included more detailed agriculture LULCtypes. LULC maps were supplied to project partners to improve use of Soil andWater AssessmentTool for modeling hydrology and water use, plus enhance LMB water and disaster managementin a region vulnerable to flooding, droughts, and anthropogenic change as part of basin planningand assessment.

land use land cover mapping; SWAT hydrologic model↗

Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management, Including Droughts, Floods, and Associated Water Cycle Extremes II

Water resources management can benefit from applications of remote sensing and hydrologic models. These tools can be especially valuable during extreme events and in data-sparse regions. Observational platforms include the GPM, SMAP, Terra, Aqua, Landsat, GRACE, and Sentinel satellites, and other satellite and airborne platforms. They can support the operational water resources management community in responding to climate change, increases in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events. This session will highlight advances in the use of satellite, airborne and ground-based sensor networks to: measure the quantity/quality of hydrologic resources in the U.S. and internationally; provide information to water managers to improve water resources management; and support risk-based decision making. Topics of interest include (1) extreme events such as floods and droughts; (2) water supply and snow water resource monitoring and forecasting; (3) evapotranspiration, soil moisture, groundwater, and agricultural water management; (4) water quality and (5) global water sustainability.

Bolten, John D.↗

Planning Satellite Swarm Measurements for Climate Models: Comparing Dynamic Constraint Processing and MILP Methods

We present D-SHIELD, a challenging climate science application to plan coordinated measurements (observations) for a constellation of satellites, each containing two different sensors, each with 61 pointing angle options. The L-band and P-band radar sensors collect data fed into a soil moisture model which tracks and predicts soil moisture across 1.67 million Ground Positions (GP). Soil moisture is an important predictor of wildfires, and then a predictor of floods, landslides and debris flow after a fire. Each measurement covers multiple GP due to the sensor footprint. Each GP has a "model error" which represents the uncertainty of the the soil moisture state prediction. Model error changes at different rates for each GP as the time since last observation increases and after significant events like rain. The planner's goal is to select measurements which maximize soil moisture model improvement (reduce model uncertainty). This problem is combinatorically explosive, involving many degrees of freedom for planner choices. Good domain heuristics can find solutions within a reasonable time for our application needs but cannot be proven optimal. In this paper we compare two different planning approaches to this problem: Dynamic Constraint Processing (DCP) and Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). We match inputs and metrics for both DCP and MILP algorithms to enable a direct apples-to-apples comparison. We demonstrate and discuss the trades between DCP flexibility and performance vs. MILP's promise of provable optimality.

Rich Levinson↗

Operating aspects of an oil pumping ring seal

Past analyses have left several unanswered questions regarding the operation of a pumping ring seal. This paper addresses some of these unresolved problems. In particular, treatment of the film-ring interfacial boundary condition and the return portion of the pumping cycle are numerically investigated. Further a simple model is proposed to determine whether or not the seal operates fully flooded.

Smith, P. J.↗

Regional Climate Studies with Variable-Resolution Stretched-Grid GCMs

A variable resolution GCM using a global stretched grid with fine resolution over the area(s) of interest, is a viable new approach to regional and subregional climate studies and applications. It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The first version of the SG-GCM based on the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) GCM using a finite-difference approximation, has been developed and thoroughly tested during the last few years. Successful simulations have been performed with the SG-GCM for the anomalous regional climate events of the U.S. 1988 summer drought and 1993 summer flood. They have shown the practical feasibility of the SG-approach for regional climate modeling. The GEOS SG-DAS (Data Assimilation System) incorporating the SG-GCM has also been developed and tested. The assimilated regional fields and diagnostics are used for validating the SG-GCM regional simulations. Two new SG-GCMs are being developed. The first is the SG-version of the new NASANCAR FV-GCM (with the finite-volume (FV) dynamics), and the second is the SG-version of the new GCM with spectral-element dynamics. Both GCMs use the WAR CCM4 physics. Using these advanced numerics will provide increased computational efficiency for the new the SG-GCMs, and will allow us to employ more flexible stretching strategies beneficial for the efficient regional down-scaling. The major current developments are focused on: simulating the 1997-1999 (and beyond) ENSO cycle and related monsoonal circulations, with enhanced regional resolution; studying intraseasonal and interannual regional climate variability for the extended multiyear (AMIP-type) SG-GCM simulations; and studying the impact of ensemble integrations.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael↗

An Earth System Digital Twin for Flood Prediction and Analysis

An Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) is a dynamic, interactive, digital replica of the state and temporal evolution of Earth systems. It integrates multiple models along with observation data, and connecting them with analysis, AI, and visualization tools. Together, these enable users to explore the current state of the Earth system, predict future conditions, and run hypothetical scenarios to understand how the system would evolve under various assumptions. The NASA’s Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST)’s Integrated Digital Earth Analysis System (IDEAS) project is to establish an extensible architectural solution to develop digital twins of our physical environment for Earth Science. IDEAS delivers a formal system architecture with mechanisms for the outputs of one model to feed into others; for driving models with observation data; and for harmonizing observation data and model outputs for analysis. To validate and demonstrate the IDEAS architecture, this project collaborates with the Space Climate Observatory (SCO)’s FloodDAM project and the Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES) to focus on floods detection, prediction and their impacts.

Kettig, Peter↗

Bias Correction of Hydrologic Projections Strongly Impacts Inferred Climate Vulnerabilities in Institutionally Complex Water Systems

Water-resources planners use regional water management models (WMMs) to identify vulnerabilities to climate change. Frequently, dynamically downscaled climate inputs are used in conjunction with land-surface models (LSMs) to provide hydrologic streamflow projections, which serve as critical inputs for WMMs. Here, we show how even modest projection errors can strongly affect assessments of water availability and financial stability for irrigation districts in California. Specifically, our results highlight that LSM errors in projections of flood and drought extremes are highly interactive across timescales, path-dependent, and can be amplified when modeling infrastructure systems (e.g., misrepresenting banked groundwater). Common strategies for reducing errors in deterministic LSM hydrologic projections (e.g., bias correction) can themselves strongly distort projected climate vulnerabilities and misrepresent their inferred financial consequences. Overall, our results indicate a need to move beyond standard deterministic climate projection and error management frameworks that are dependent on single simulated climate change scenario outcomes.

Keyvan Malek↗

Implementation and Evaluation of Irrigation Techniques in the Community Land Model

Several previous studies have highlighted the irrigation-induced impacts on the global and regional water cycle, energy budget, and near-surface climate. While land models are widely used to address this question, the implementations of irrigation in these models vary in complexity. Here, we expand the representation of irrigation in Community Land Model to enable six different irrigation methods. We find that using a combination of irrigation methods, including default, sprinkler, flood and paddy techniques performs best as determined by evaluating the simulated irrigation water withdrawals against observations, and therefore select this combination as the new irrigation scheme. Then, the impact of the new irrigation scheme on surface fluxes is evaluated and detected using single-point simulations. Finally, the global and regional irrigation-induced impacts on surface energy and water fluxes are compared using both the original and the new irrigation scheme. The new irrigation scheme substantially reduces the bias and root-mean-square error of simulated irrigation water withdrawal in the USA and other countries, but considerably overestimates withdrawals in Central China. Results of single-point experiments show that different irrigation methods have different effects on surface fluxes, while the magnitudes are small. At the global scale, the new scheme enlarges the irrigation-induced impacts on water and energy variables relative to the original scheme, with varying magnitudes across regions. Overall, our results suggest that this newly developed scheme is a better tool for simulating irrigation-induced impacts on climate, and highlight the added value of incorporating human water management in Earth system models.

Community land models↗

Remote sensing of coastal fronts and their effects on oil dispersion

The use of remote sensing techniques to determine the properties of coastal and estuarine fronts, which represent regions of discontinuities and high gradients in ocean physical parameters such as velocity and density, and to assess the influence of such fronts on oil pollutants is discussed. Results of an aircraft and boat verification study of an oil drift and spread model in Delaware Bay are indicated which illustrate the tendency of oil slicks to be attracted to frontal regions, where a denser fluid underlies a lighter fluid giving rise to an inclined interface with convergence zones. Landsat imagery of the bay acquired in order to incorporate frontal information into the interactive computer model is then presented which allows the locations of coastal fronts to be charted throughout a tidal cycle. It is noted that satellite observations of flood-associated fronts on the New Jersey side of the bay and ebb-associated fronts on the Delaware side agree with boat measurements and model predictions, and that the remote tracking of fronts by aircraft and satellites will aid in oil slick clean-up operations.

Klemas, V.↗

Cloud Formation and Water Transport on Mars after Major Outflow Events

The triggering of a robust water cycle on Mars might have been caused by the gigantic flooding events evidenced by outflow channels. We use the Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) to test this hypothesis, studying how these presumably abrupt eruptions of water might have affected the climate of Mars in the past. We model where the water ultimately went as part of a transient atmospheric water cycle, to answer questions including: (1) Can sudden introductions of large amounts of water on the Martian surface lead to a new equilibrated water cycle? (2) What are the roles of water vapor and water ice clouds to sudden changes in the water cycle on Mars? (3) How are radiative feedbacks involved with this? (4) What is the ultimate fate of the outflow water? (5) Can we tie certain geological features to outflow water redistributed by the atmosphere?

Santiago, D. L.↗

Assessing Ecosystem Service Provision Under Climate Change to Support Conservation and Development Planning in Myanmar

Inclusion of ecosystem services (ES) information into national-scale development and climate adaptation planning has yet to become common practice, despite demand from decision makers. Identifying where ES originate and to whom the benefits flowunder current and future climate conditionsis especially critical in rapidly developing countries, where the risk of ES loss is high. Here, using Myanmar as a case study, we assess where and how ecosystems provide key benefits to the countrys people and infrastructure. We model the supply of and demand for sediment retention, dry-season baseflows, flood risk reduction and coastal storm protection from multiple beneficiaries. We find that locations currently providing the greatest amount of services are likely to remain important under the range of climate conditions considered, demonstrating their importance in planning for climate resilience. Overlap between priority areas for ES provision and biodiversity conservation is higher than expected by chance overall, but the areas important for multiple ES are underrepresented in currently designated protected areas and Key Biodiversity Areas. Our results are contributing to development planning in Myanmar, and our approach could be extended to other contexts where there is demand for national-scale natural capital information to shape development plans and policies

Climate change↗

Applications of NASA’s LANCE Earth Observations for Ecosystem Assessments

As one of NASA's open and free data systems, NASA's Land, Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE) provides a wide range of near real-time, low latency and expedited data products from NASA and other earth science satellite missions to support users in their understanding of the value and distribution of ecosystem services. LANCE data can support the System of Environmental Economic Accounting-Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA-EA) framework by both facilitating the creation of ecosystem spatial extent and condition accounts, as well as the quantification and mapping of ecosystem services, much more quickly than routine data processing allows. During the past 13 years, LANCE near real-time satellite data products (e.g., surface reflectance, albedo, vegetation height, thermal anomalies, soil moisture, snow cover etc.) have been used to produce ecosystem-related indicators such as vegetation indexes, biomass, land cover maps, fire, and flood products. These ecosystem-related indicators can be integrated into ecosystem services models, tools, and platforms to monitor land cover and land use changes in ecosystem composition in support of land and natural resource management. When using ecosystem services accounts in decision-making, low latency is essential because having up-to-date information can be critical to support decisions being made. With adequate spatial resolution, long time series length, and low latency data products, LANCE would promote the sustainable use of land and natural resources.

Tian Yao↗

A study of density fronts and their effects on coastal pollutants

Density fronts represent regions of extremely high gradient or discontinuity in various parameters of physical interest, the most important being the water velocity and density fields. Such fronts strongly influence pollutant dispersion, by capturing oil slicks and other pollutants concentrated in surface films and drawing them down into the water column. Satellites, aircraft and boats were used to study the behavior of different types of fronts in Delaware Bay and their effect on pollutants in order to provide a basis for improving an oil drift and spreading model. Landsat satellites provided the most effective means of determining the location and extent of frontal systems over all portions of the tidal cycle. Satellite observations of flood-associated fronts on the New Jersey side of the Bay and ebb-associated fronts on the Delaware side agreed with boat measurements and model predictions.

Klemas, V.↗

Investigation of Critical Heat Flux in Reduced Gravity Using Photomicrographic Techniques

Experiments were performed to examine the effects of body force on flow boiling critical heat flux (CHF). FC-72 was boiled along one wall of a transparent rectangular flow channel that permitted photographic study of the vapor-liquid interface just prior to CHF. High-speed video imaging techniques were used to identify dominant CHF mechanisms corresponding to different flow orientations and liquid velocities. Six different CHF regimes were identified: Wavy Vapor Layer, Pool Boiling, Stratification, Vapor Counterflow, Vapor Stagnation, and Separated Concurrent Vapor Flow. CHF showed significant sensitivity to orientation for flow velocities below 0.2 m/s, where extremely low CHF values where measured, especially with downward-facing heated wall and downflow orientations. High flow velocities dampened the effects of orientation considerably. The CHF data were used to assess the suitability of previous CHF models and correlations. It is shown the Interfacial Lift-off Model is very effective at predicting CHF for high velocities at all orientations. The flooding limit, on the other hand, is useful at estimating CHF at low velocities and for downflow orientations. A new method consisting of three dimensionless criteria is developed for determining the minimum flow velocity required to overcome body force effects on near-saturated flow boiling CHF. Vertical upflow boiling experiments were performed in pursuit of identifying the trigger mechanism for subcooled flow boiling CHF. While virtually all prior studies on flow boiling CHF concern the prediction or measurement of conditions that lead to CHF, this study was focused on events that take place during the CHF transient. High-speed video imaging and photomicrographic techniques were used to record the transient behavior of interfacial features from the last steady-state power level before CHF until the moment of power cut-off following CHF. The video records show the development of a wavy vapor layer which propagates along the heated wall, permitting cooling prior to CHF only in wetting fronts corresponding to the wave troughs. Image analysis software was developed to estimate void fraction from the individual video images. The void fraction records for subcooled flow boiling show the CHF transient is accompanied by gradual lift-off of wetting fronts culminating in some maximum vapor layer mean thickness, following which the vapor layer begins to thin down as the transition to film boiling ensues. This study proves the Interfacial Lift-off Model, which has been validated for near-saturated flow boiling CHF, is equally valid for subcooled conditions.

Mudawar, Issam↗

Comparisons and Contrasts Between Mediterranean Flood-Producing Orographic Storms and Tropical Cyclones Modified by Complex Orography

Often, late-year, flood-producing storms in the Mediterranean Alps region arise from baroclinic disturbances developing on westerly longwaves, with the incipient storm circulations appearing well west of the flood zone. Regardless of the genesis locations and before the storms begin their flow interactions with the orography of the Mediterranean Alps, a process which can produce intense long-lived rainfall over the mountainous terrain of Italy and France, most of their moisture is drawn from warm Mediterranean waters while important elements of their thermodynamic structure are derived from airmass properties originating in north Africa and the Mediterranean basin itself. In fact, because of strong thermodynamic contrasts between the baroclinic zone producing the incipient disturbance and high potential temperature air from the south advecting into and wrapping around the storm center, a Mediterranean storm whose origins are from an evolving shortwave baroclinic perturbation, can become a quasi-warm core hybrid in term of its energetics composition, a process somewhat akin to the development of polar lows. This process begs the question of whether there are similarities between the autumn-winter season flood producing storms of the Mediterranean Alps and warm core tropical cyclones which become altered dynamically and thermodynamically by landfall over steep orographic terrain. This study investigates, from a comparison and contrast perspective, how the similarities and differences between the two types of storms manifest themselves over their respective life cycles. Before the orographically-induced precipitation-release stage in which both types of storm have evolved to the same hydrometeorlogical conclusion, the two storm categories are transforming from entirely distinctive origins, i.e., the classic eastward traveling, baroclinic mid-latitude cyclone forming in western Europe, and the classic eastward-traveling, warm core tropical cyclone developing in the western Pacific. The analyses use high resolution, nonhydrostatic model simulations, satellite data, and various types of ground data to conduct the study. The flood events of Piemonte- 2000 in northern Italy and Typhoon Rusa-2002 in South Korea are selected to focus the analysis on well documented meteorological events.

Smith, Eric A.↗