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Mapping National Forest Aboveground Biomass in Mexico By Integrating GEDI and Landsat Times Series Data

Mexico is one of the countries with great potential for the UN's Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) program, a key nature-based solution for the forest sector. To monitor carbon stock changes, there is a growing demand for unbiased Monitoring Reporting Verification (MRV) systems to facilitate effective forest management and climate change mitigation strategies. Remote sensing-based national aboveground biomass density (AGBD) estimation over Mexico is scarce and often limited to one-time static mapping, leading to spatiotemporal inconsistency in inputs. As an effort under NASA's Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) program, we have developed a remote sensing-based approach to create consistent historical AGBD maps of Mexico using multi-stream remote sensing data, including spaceborne lidar GEDI and long-term Landsat time series, as well as topographic information. We employ the continuous change detection and classification (CCDC) algorithm for temporal modeling of Landsat surface reflectance, followed by the inference of forest AGBD using a random forest machine learning algorithm with the temporal information of land surface dynamics extracted by the CCDC as input. GEDI provides unprecedented forest structure and AGBD sampling datasets for model training and validation practices. In this presentation, we share the progress made in developing a spatially explicit mapping of historical AGBD changes associated with land surface changes and post-disturbance landscapes.

Taejin Park↗

DOE OSTI2020

Differential effects of drought on nonstructural carbohydrate storage in seedlings and mature trees of four species in a subtropical forest

Nonstructural carbohydrates (NSC) play important roles in forest vulnerability to climate change, especially under increasing drought intensity and frequency. Understanding NSC dynamics is essential for accurately predicting the resistance and resilience of forests in response to drought. However, our knowledge of NSC re-sponses to drought is still limited due to the lack of research in trees of di?erent life stages. In this study, we conducted a throughfall exclusion experiment (TFE) with four subtropical evergreen tree species to examine drought e?ects on NSC in mature trees and understory seedlings. Our results showed the differential effects of drought on NSC dynamics of understory seedlings and mature trees. In the TFE experiment, mature trees of all four species were relatively homoeostatic with the insigni?cantly changed NSC pools, photosynthesis, and growth under the drought treatment compared to the control. In contrast, understory seedlings displayed sig-ni?cant decreases in total NSC and soluble sugars (-14.70 ± 3.66% and -16.93 ± 3.85%, respectively) with the exception of Lithocarpus glaber (L. glaber). The seedlings of L. glaber with the highest hydraulic resistance maintained or slightly increased NSC and its components in response to drought. Our study highlights the im-portance of life stage in assessing drought e?ects of trees on NSC storage and then forest C cycling, which could be incorporated into the dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to better understand drought effects on forest C balance in the future.

Zhang, Peipei↗

DOE OSTI2023

Asymmetric response of Amazon forest water and energy fluxes to wet and dry hydrological extremes reveals onset of a local drought-induced tipping point

Understanding the effects of intensification of Amazon basin hydrological cycling—manifest as increasingly frequent floods and droughts—on water and energy cycles of tropical forests is essential to meeting the challenge of predicting ecosystem responses to climate change, including forest “tipping points”. Here, we investigated the impacts of hydrological extremes on forest function using 12+ years of observations (between 2001–2020) of water and energy fluxes from eddy covariance, along with associated ecological dynamics from biometry, at the Tapajós National Forest. Measurements encompass the strong 2015–2016 El Niño drought and La Niña 2008–2009 wet events. We found that the forest responded strongly to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Drought reduced water availability for evapotranspiration ( ET ) leading to large increases in sensible heat fluxes ( H ). Partitioning ET by an approach that assumes transpiration ( T ) is proportional to photosynthesis, we found that water stress-induced reductions in canopy conductance ( G s ) drove T declines partly compensated by higher evaporation ( E ). By contrast, the abnormally wet La Niña period gave higher T and lower E , with little change in seasonal ET . Both El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events resulted in changes in forest structure, manifested as lower wet-season leaf area index. However, only during El Niño 2015–2016, we observed a breakdown in the strong meteorological control of transpiration fluxes (via energy availability and atmospheric demand) because of slowing vegetation functions (via shutdown of G s and significant leaf shedding). Drought-reduced T and G s , higher H and E , amplified by feedbacks with higher temperatures and vapor pressure deficits, signaled that forest function had crossed a threshold, from which it recovered slowly, with delay, post-drought. In conclusion, identifying such tipping point onsets (beyond which future irreversible processes may occur) at local scale is crucial for predicting basin-scale threshold-crossing changes in forest energy and water cycling, leading to slow-down in forest function, potentially resulting in Amazon forests shifting into alternate degraded states.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Applications of the BIOPHYS Algorithm for Physically-Based Retrieval of Biophysical, Structural and Forest Disturbance Information

Canopy reflectance model inversion using look-up table approaches provides powerful and flexible options for deriving improved forest biophysical structural information (BSI) compared with traditional statistical empirical methods. The BIOPHYS algorithm is an improved, physically-based inversion approach for deriving BSI for independent use and validation and for monitoring, inventory and quantifying forest disturbance as well as input to ecosystem, climate and carbon models. Based on the multiple-forward mode (MFM) inversion approach, BIOPHYS results were summarized from different studies (Minnesota/NASA COVER; Virginia/LEDAPS; Saskatchewan/BOREAS), sensors (airborne MMR; Landsat; MODIS) and models (GeoSail; GOMS). Applications output included forest density, height, crown dimension, branch and green leaf area, canopy cover, disturbance estimates based on multi-temporal chronosequences, and structural change following recovery from forest fires over the last century. Good correspondences with validation field data were obtained. Integrated analyses of multiple solar and view angle imagery further improved retrievals compared with single pass data. Quantifying ecosystem dynamics such as the area and percent of forest disturbance, early regrowth and succession provide essential inputs to process-driven models of carbon flux. BIOPHYS is well suited for large-area, multi-temporal applications involving multiple image sets and mosaics for assessing vegetation disturbance and quantifying biophysical structural dynamics and change. It is also suitable for integration with forest inventory, monitoring, updating, and other programs.

Peddle, Derek R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bacterial community dynamics explain carbon mineralization and assimilation in soils of different land-use history

Soil dwelling microorganisms are key players in the terrestrial carbon cycle, driving both the degradation and stabilization of soil organic matter. Bacterial community structure and function vary with respect to land use; yet the ecological drivers of this variation remain poorly described and difficult to predict. For this work, we conducted a multi-substrate DNA-stable isotope probing experiment across cropland, old-field, and forest habitats to link carbon mineralization dynamics with the dynamics of bacterial growth and carbon assimilation. We tracked the movement of 13 C derived from five distinct carbon sources as it was assimilated into bacterial DNA over time. We show that carbon mineralization, community composition, and carbon assimilation dynamics all differed with respect to land use. We also show that microbial community dynamics affect carbon assimilation dynamics and are associated with soil DNA content. Soil DNA yield is easy to measure and may be useful in predicting microbial community dynamics linked to soil carbon cycling. Soil dwelling microorganisms are key players in the terrestrial carbon cycle, driving both the degradation and stabilization of soil organic matter. Microbial communities vary with respect to land use, but we still have an incomplete understanding of how variation in community structure links to variation in community function. DNA stable isotope probing (DNA-SIP) is a high-resolution method that can identify specific microbial taxa that assimilate carbon in situ. We conducted a large-scale multi-substrate DNA-SIP experiment to explore differences in bacterial activity across land-use regimes. We show that microbial community dynamics vary with land use, that these dynamics are linked to soil carbon cycling, and that they are associated with easily measured soil properties.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Temporal nitrogen dynamics in intensively managed loblolly pine early stand development

Forest production is strongly dependent on nutrient uptake; however, sustainable management of intensively managed plantations requires an improved understanding of this relationship when fertilization occurs frequently across short rotations. Here, we studied temporal nitrogen (N) concentration ([N]) and content (Nc) dynamics under different silvicultural practices (herbicide, fertilization, and planting density) throughout early loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) stand development (5 years). We describe relationships of [N] and Nc of different stand components (foliage, branches, stem, roots, and competing vegetation) with carbon and biomass. Our results demonstrate that [N] of perennial loblolly tissues do not respond to silvicultural practices and progressively decrease through development. While foliar [N] was most responsive to resource availability, it was not consistent across time. Controlling competing vegetation was crucial to promote the use of site resources by the crop tree and increased loblolly Nc by >500%. However, increased N uptake and expedited growth is dependent upon fertilization early in stand development. At age 5, herbicide plus reduced and full fertilization rates exhibited similar aboveground Nc, which was 32% higher than with herbicide only. Increasing planting density resulted in increased above- and belowground loblolly Nc; however, increases in Nc were not proportional with increases in planting density. Net primary productivity and N uptake were linearly related, but age/development strongly controlled N use efficiency. Our study helps to understand complex relationships between N, biomass, and silvicultural practices during early stand development and demonstrates that temporal evaluation of nutrient dynamics is crucial to better understand loblolly pine growth, carbon sequestration potential, and to inform sustainable silvicultural practices across short rotations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dry Season Transpiration and Soil Water Dynamics in the Central Amazon

With current observations and future projections of more intense and frequent droughts in the tropics, understanding the impact that extensive dry periods may have on tree and ecosystem-level transpiration and concurrent carbon uptake has become increasingly important. Here, we investigate paired soil and tree water extraction dynamics in an old-growth upland forest in central Amazonia during the 2018 dry season. Tree water use was assessed via radial patterns of sap flow in eight dominant canopy trees, each a different species with a range in diameter, height, and wood density. Paired multi-sensor soil moisture probes used to quantify volumetric water content dynamics and soil water extraction within the upper 100 cm were installed adjacent to six of those trees. To link depth-specific water extraction patterns to root distribution, fine root biomass was assessed through the soil profile to 235 cm. To scale tree water use to the plot level (stand transpiration), basal area was measured for all trees within a 5 m radius around each soil moisture probe. The sensitivity of tree transpiration to reduced precipitation varied by tree, with some increasing and some decreasing in water use during the dry period. Tree-level water use scaled with sapwood area, from 11 to 190 L per day. Stand level water use, based on multiple plots encompassing sap flow and adjacent trees, varied from ∼1.7 to 3.3 mm per day, increasing linearly with plot basal area. Soil water extraction was dependent on root biomass, which was dense at the surface (i.e., 45% in the upper 5 cm) and declined dramatically with depth. As the dry season progressed and the upper soil dried, soil water extraction shifted to deeper levels and model projections suggest that much of the water used during the month-long dry-down could be extracted from the upper 2–3 m. Results indicate variation in rates of soil water extraction across the research area and, temporally, through the soil profile. These results provide key information on whole-tree contributions to transpiration by canopy trees as water availability changes. In addition, information on simultaneous stand level dynamics of soil water extraction that can inform mechanistic models that project tropical forest response to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

ITreeForeCast: An integrated modeling software to simulate tree level growth and forest carbon storage

Healthy trees in forest act as a natural carbon sink, capturing carbon. As they grow, they store carbon in their trunks, leaves and roots. Not all trees store carbon at the same rate, or in the same quantities, as it depends on a variety of biophysical and climatic factors. Furthermore, although carbon estimation in trees can be complex, the precision of estimates is tightly linked to trees growth, both in diameter and height. However, the simulation of carbon uptake by forest and forest growth has each been modeled separately, and independently at differing levels of detail and spatial resolution. In this paper, we introduce ITreeForeCast, a simulation model combining the two types of modeling on a unified platform, enabling the investigation of impacts of management strategies on carbon sequestration and wood products. ITreeForeCast is a user-extendable framework that offers new opportunities to model, simulate, and visualize the dynamics of individual trees in a forest, simulate management strategies over time, and carbon uptake.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS2013

Impacts of Disturbance History on Forest Carbon Stocks and Fluxes: Merging Satellite Disturbance Mapping with Forest Inventory Data in a Carbon Cycle Model Framework

Forest carbon stocks and fluxes are highly dynamic following stand-clearing disturbances from severe fire and harvest and this presents a significant challenge for continental carbon budget assessments. In this work we use forest inventory data to parameterize a carbon cycle model to represent post-disturbance carbon trajectories of carbon pools and fluxes for specific forest types growing in high and low site productivity class settings. We then apply these trajectories to landscapes and regions based on forest age distributions derived from either the FIA data or from Landsat time series stacks (1985-2006) for 54 representative scenes throughout most of the conterminous United States. We estimate the net carbon uptake in forests caused by post-disturbance growth and decomposition ("regrowth sink") for forested regions across the country. At the landscape scale, the prevailing condition of positive net ecosystem productivity (NEP) is in stark contrast to local patches with large sources, particularly in the west where fires and clear cuts create contiguous disturbed patches. At the continental scale, regional differences in disturbance rates reflect management patterns of high disturbance rates in the Southeastern and South Central states, and lower disturbance rates in the Northeast and Northern Lakes States. Despite low contemporary disturbance rates in the Northeast and Northern Lakes States (0.61 and 0.74% y(exp −1)), the regrowth sink there remains of moderate to large strength (88 and 57 g C m(exp −2) y(exp −1)) owing to the continued legacy from historical clearing. Large regrowth sinks are also found in the Southeast, South Central, and Pacific Southwest regions (85, 86, and 95 g C m(exp −2) y(exp −1)) where disturbance rates also tend to be higher (1.59, 1.38, and 0.93% y(exp −1)). Overall, the Landsat-derived disturbance rates are elevated relative to FIA-derived rates (1.19 versus 0.93% y(exp −1)) particularly for western regions. The differences only modestly adjust regional- and continental-scale carbon budgets, reducing NEP from forest regrowth by about 8%.

carbon↗

DOE OSTI2024

Methane dynamics described through vegetation-soil interactions in bald cypress and other bottomland hardwood forests

Past estimates of CH4 fluxes from forested swamps ranged from 10 to 106 mg C m-2 d-1 in temperate regions and 44 to144 mg C m-2 d-1 in subtropical and tropical regions. However, climate change could alter these rates in wetlands where efflux is predominantly controlled by water level, temperature, and plant composition. While the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley has experienced the largest loss of forested wetlands in the U.S, supporting 21 to 25 million acres of bottomland hardwoods before European settlement, an estimated 5 million acres remain. This landscapes remain under-studied from a CH4 flux perspective, particularly in determining woody vegetation contributions to landscape CH4 emissions. Our overarching objective are to (1) improve our understanding of the controls on CH4 fluxes in forested mineral soil wetlands, and (2) to better understand the effects of landscape position and forest composition on the CH4 fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. Our main goal is to elucidate the

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Forest responses to simulated elevated CO 2 under alternate hypotheses of size- and age-dependent mortality

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO 2 ) is predicted to increase growth rates of forest trees. The extent to which increased growth translates to changes in biomass is dependent on the turnover time of the carbon, and thus tree mortality rates. Size- or age-dependent mortality combined with increased growth rates could result in either decreased carbon turnover from a speeding up of tree life cycles, or increased biomass from trees reaching larger sizes, respectively. However, most vegetation models currently lack any representation of size- or age-dependent mortality and the effect of eCO 2 on changes in biomass and carbon turnover times is thus a major source of uncertainty in predictions of future vegetation dynamics. Using a reduced-complexity form of the vegetation demographic model the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator to simulate an idealised tropical forest, we find increases in biomass despite reductions in carbon turnover time in both size- and age-dependent mortality scenarios in response to a hypothetical eCO 2 -driven 25% increase in woody net primary productivity (wNPP). Carbon turnover times decreased by 9.6% in size-dependent mortality scenarios due to a speeding up of tree life cycles, but also by 2.0% when mortality was age-dependent, as larger crowns led to increased light competition. Increases in aboveground biomass (AGB) were much larger when mortality was age-dependent (24.3%) compared with size-dependent (13.4%) as trees reached larger sizes before death. In simulations with a constant background mortality rate, carbon turnover time decreased by 2.1% and AGB increased by 24.0%, however, absolute values of AGB and carbon turnover were higher than in either size- or age-dependent mortality scenario. The extent to which AGB increases and carbon turnover decreases will thus depend on the mechanisms of large tree mortality: if increased size itself results in elevated mortality rates, then this could reduce by about half the increase in AGB relative to the increase in wNPP.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

Ecosystem age-class dynamics and distribution in the LPJ-wsl v2.0 global ecosystem model

Forest ecosystem processes follow classic responses with age, peaking production around canopy closure and declining thereafter. Although age dynamics might be more dominant in certain regions over others, demographic effects on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) are bound to exist. Yet, explicit representation of ecosystem demography is notably absent in many global ecosystem models. This is concerning because the global community relies on these models to regularly update our collective understanding of the global carbon cycle. This paper aims to present the technical developments of a computationally efficient approach for representing age-class dynamics within a global ecosystem model, the Lund–Potsdam–Jena – Wald, Schnee, Landschaft version 2.0 (LPJ-wsl v2.0) dynamic global vegetation model and to determine if explicit representation of demography influenced ecosystem stocks and fluxes at global scales or at the level of a grid cell. The modeled age classes are initially created by simulated fire and prescribed wood harvesting or abandonment of managed land, otherwise aging naturally until an additional disturbance is simulated or prescribed. In this paper, we show that the age module can capture classic demographic patterns in stem density and tree height compared to inventory data, and that simulated patterns of ecosystem function follow classic responses with age. We also present two scientific applications of the model to assess the modeled age-class distribution over time and to determine the demographic effect on ecosystem fluxes relative to climate. Simulations show that, between 1860 and 2016, zonal age distribution on Earth was driven predominately by fire, causing a 45- to 60-year difference in ages between older boreal (50–90° N) and younger tropical (23° S–23° N) ecosystems. Between simulation years 1860 and 2016, land-use change and land management were responsible for a decrease in zonal age by −6 years in boreal and by −21 years in both temperate (23–50° N) and tropical latitudes, with the anthropogenic effect on zonal age distribution increasing over time. A statistical model helped to reduce LPJ-wsl v2.0 complexity by predicting per-grid-cell annual NPP and Rh fluxes by three terms: precipitation, temperature, and age class; at global scales, R2 was between 0.95 and 0.98. As determined by the statistical model, the demographic effect on ecosystem function was often less than 0.10 kg C/sq. myr but as high as 0.60 kg C/sq. myr where the effect was greatest. In the eastern forests of North America, the simulated demographic effect was of similar magnitude, or greater than, the effects of climate; simulated demographic effects were similarly important in large regions of every vegetated continent. Simulated spatial datasets are provided for global ecosystem ages and the estimated coefficients for effects of precipitation, temperature and demography on ecosystem function. The discussion focuses on our finding of an increasing role of demography in the global carbon cycle, the effect of demography on relaxation times (resilience) following a disturbance event and its implications at global scales, and a finding of a 40 Pg C increase in biomass turnover when including age dynamics at global scales. Whereas time is the only mechanism that increases ecosystem age, any additional disturbance not explicitly modeled will decrease age. The LPJ-wsl v2.0 age module represents another step forward towards understanding the role of demography in global ecosystems.

LPJ-wsl↗

DOE OSTI2022

Diurnal and Seasonal Dynamics of Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence, Vegetation Indices, and Gross Primary Productivity in the Boreal Forest

Remote sensing of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provides a powerful proxy for gross primary productivity (GPP). It is particularly promising in boreal ecosystems where seasonal downregulation of photosynthesis occurs without significant changes in canopy structure or chlorophyll content. The use of SIF as a proxy for GPP is complicated by inherent non-linearities due to both physical (illumination effects) and ecophysiological (light use efficiencies) controls at fine spatial (tower/leaf) and temporal (half-hourly) scales. Here, to study the SIF-GPP relationship, we investigated the diurnal and seasonal dynamics of continuous tower-based measurements of SIF, GPP, and common vegetation indices at the Southern Old Black Spruce Site (SOBS) in Saskatchewan, CA over the course of two years. We find that SIF outperforms other vegetation indices as a proxy for GPP at all temporal scales but shows a non-linear relationship with GPP at a half-hourly resolution. At small temporal scales, SIF and GPP are predominantly driven by light and non-linearity between SIF and GPP is due to the light saturation of GPP. Averaged over daily and monthly scales, the relationship between SIF and GPP is linear due to a reduction in the observed PAR range. Seasonal changes in the light responses of SIF and GPP are driven by changes in light use efficiency which co-vary with changes in temperature, while illumination and canopy structure partially linearize the SIF-GPP relationship. Additionally, we find that the SIF-GPP relationship has a seasonal dependency. Our results help clarify the utility of SIF for estimating carbon assimilation in boreal forests.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1994

(abstract) Monitoring the Freeze/Thaw Transitions in Taiga Forests Using ERS-1 SAR

Automated recording stations have been installed at the Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest, a Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site located near Fairbanks, Alaska, in a forest stand of the Tanana River floodplain underlain by discontinuous permafrost. These stations provide a continuous record of dielectric constant and temperature of tree trunks, and soil moisture and temperature profiles down to the root zone. Along with the weather stations deployed at the same location, these measurements provide a continuous record of the environmental and phenologic conditions of the forest during a complete seasonal cycle. At the same time, ERS-1 SAR imaged the study site repeatedly from space to provide radar backscatter measurements of the forest approximately three times a month. Here, we examine the temporal dynamic of ERS-1 SAR measurements in relation with the changing environmental and phenologic state of the forest canopy and of the forest ground layers during the winter/spring and fall/winter transitions of 1992 and 1993. During these transitions, we examine whether changes in radar backscatter observed by ERS-1 may be related to freezing or thawing of the soil and vegetation in order to determine the start and end of the growing season for the forest. The results of this analysis are used in turn to determine whether similar changes are observed over larger regions. Mosaics of SAR data generated along three different North-South Alaskan ERS-1 transects that intercept with our study site are used in combination with hourly air temperature and daily precipitation rates gathered at airport weather stations by the National Weather Service. Results obtained using ERS-1 data collected from January 1992 to mid-1993 will be discussed.

permafrost temporal dynamics Alaska ecology radar ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Tradeoffs in forest resilience to satellite-based estimates of water and productivity losses

Climate change is expected to intensify the global hydrological cycle via increased evapotranspiration (ET). Changes in ET have important consequences for water-related ecosystem services as well as for forest productivity. Forests play a critical role in ET: active trees sequester carbon at the expense of losing water, yet if they are not active, water remains in the trees, but productivity stalls. Here, we estimated the capacity of forests to recover (resilience) from extreme water or productivity losses based on modeled ET through remote sensing methods across the conterminous USA. Results show there is a spatial tradeoff in resilience to water or productivity losses. Forests were more resilient to water loss in the drier west, and more resilient to productivity loss in the wetter east. Still, resilience was highly heterogeneous across the continent. Projections under climate change indicate both declines and increases of up to 13% in forest resilience, with broad regional trends but high spatial heterogeneity within regions. This study brings crucial satellite-based insights on how water dynamics, and consequentially productivity and water provision in forests, might be impacted by climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) for Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery

Tropical cyclones are an important cause of forest disturbance, and major storms caused severe structural damage and elevated tree mortality in coastal tropical forests. Model capabilities that can be used to understand post-hurricane forest recovery are still limited. We use a vegetation demography model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES) to study the processes and the key factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery. We implemented hurricane-induced forest damage, including defoliation, structural biomass reduction, and tree mortality, performed ensemble model simulations, and used random forest feature importance. For the simulation in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico, we identified factors controlling the post-hurricane forest recovery, and quantified the sensitivity of key model parameters to the post-hurricane forest recovery. The results indicate a tendency for the Bisley forests to shift toward the light demanding plant functional type (PFT) when the pre-hurricane biomass between the light demanding and shade tolerant PFTs is nearly equal and forests experience hurricane disturbance with mortality >60% for both the two PFTs. Under more realistic conditions where the shade tolerant PFT is initially dominant, mortality >80% is required for a shift toward dominance of the light demanding PFT at Bisley. Hurricane mortality and background mortality are the two major factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery in simulations. This research improves understanding of the ELM-FATES model behavior associated with hurricane disturbance and provides guidance for dynamic vegetation model development in representing hurricane induced forest damage with varied intensities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Prediction of chronic kidney disease progression using recurrent neural network and electronic health records

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a progressive loss in kidney function. Early detection of patients who will progress to late-stage CKD is of paramount importance for patient care. To address this, we develop a pipeline to process longitudinal electronic heath records (EHRs) and construct recurrent neural network (RNN) models to predict CKD progression from stages II/III to stages IV/V. The RNN model generates predictions based on time-series records of patients, including repeated lab tests and other clinical variables. Our investigation reveals that using a single variable, the recorded estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over time, the RNN model achieves an average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.957 for predicting future CKD progression. When additional clinical variables, such as demographics, vital information, lab test results, and health behaviors, are incorporated, the average AUROC increases to 0.967. In both scenarios, the standard deviation of the AUROC across cross-validation trials is less than 0.01, indicating a stable and high prediction accuracy. Our analysis results demonstrate the proposed RNN model outperforms existing standard approaches, including static and dynamic Cox proportional hazards models, random forest, and LightGBM. The utilization of the RNN model and the time-series data of previous eGFR measurements underscores its potential as a straightforward and effective tool for assessing the clinical risk of CKD patients concerning their disease progression.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Detecting forest response to droughts with global observations of vegetation water content

Droughts in a warming climate have become more common and more extreme, making understanding forest responses to water stress increasingly pressing. Analysis of water stress in trees has long focused on water potential in xylem and leaves, which influences stomatal closure and water flow through the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. At the same time, changes of vegetation water content (VWC) are linked to a range of tree responses, including fluxes of water and carbon, mortality, flammability, and more. Unlike water potential, which requires demanding in situ measurements, VWC can be retrieved from remote sensing measurements, particularly at microwave frequencies using radar and radiometry. Here, we highlight key frontiers through which VWC has the potential to significantly increase our understanding of forest responses to water stress. To validate remote sensing observations of VWC at landscape scale and to better relate them to data assimilation model parameters, we introduce an ecosystem-scale analogue of the pressure-volume curve, the non-linear relationship between 44 average leaf or branch water potential and water content commonly used in plant hydraulics. The 45 sources of variability in these ecosystem-scale pressure-volume curves and their relationship to 46 forest response to water stress are discussed. We further show to what extent diel, seasonal, and 47 decadal dynamics of VWC reflect variations in different processes relating the tree response to 48 water stress. VWC can also be used for inferring belowground conditions – which are difficult to 49 impossible to observe directly. Lastly, we discuss how a dedicated geostationary spaceborne 50 observational system for VWC, when combined with existing datasets, can capture diel and 51 seasonal water dynamics to advance the science and applications of global forest vulnerability to 52 future droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗