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At least 235 records · Page 13

Key issues in space nuclear power challenges for the future

The future appears rich in missions that will extend the frontiers of knowledge, human presence in space, and opportunities for profitable commerce. Key to the success of these ventures is the availability of plentiful, cost effective electric power and assured, low cost access to space. While forecasts of space power needs are problematic, an assessment of future needs based on terrestrial experience has been made. These needs fall into three broad categories: survival, self sufficiency, and industrialization. The cost of delivering payloads to orbital locations from LEO to Mars has been determined and future launch cost reductions projected. From these factors, then, projections of the performance necessary for future solar and nuclear space power options has been made. These goals are largely dependent upon orbital location and energy storage needs. Finally the cost of present space power systems has been determined and projections made for future systems.

Brandhorst, Henry W., Jr.↗

US computer research networks: Current and future

During the last decade, NASA LeRC's Communication Program has conducted a series of telecommunications forecasting studies to project trends and requirements and to identify critical telecommunications technologies that must be developed to meet future requirements. The Government Networks Division of Contel Federal Systems has assisted NASA in these studies, and the current study builds upon these earlier efforts. The current major thrust of the NASA Communications Program is aimed at developing the high risk, advanced, communications satellite and terminal technologies required to significantly increase the capacity of future communications systems. Also, major new technological, economic, and social-political events and trends are now shaping the communications industry of the future. Therefore, a re-examination of future telecommunications needs and requirements is necessary to enable NASA to make management decisions in its Communications Program and to ensure the proper technologies and systems are addressed. This study, through a series of Task Orders, is helping NASA define the likely communication service needs and requirements of the future and thereby ensuring that the most appropriate technology developments are pursued.

Kratochvil, D.↗

Future Spacelift Requirements Study

This study addresses future space applications and the derived requirements these potential applications will have on future spacelift systems. This NASA sponsored activity is a comprehensive study of potential missions including those of the military, civil, and commercial users. The study objectively evaluated the key architectural requirements for future launch systems. The results of this study are technical, economic, and policy analyses of future spacelift systems. It is intended to assist NASA and DOD decision-makers in planning technical investments and establishing policy for future U.S. spacelift systems.

Source record↗

Future X Pathfinder: Quick, Low Cost Flight Testing for Tomorrow's Launch Vehicles

The DC-X and DC-XA Single Stage Technology flight program demonstrated the value of low cost rapid prototyping and flight testing of launch vehicle technology testbeds. NASA is continuing this important legacy through a program referred to as Future-X Pathfinder. This program is designed to field flight vehicle projects that cost around $100M each, with a new vehicle flying about every two years. Each vehicle project will develop and extensively flight test a launch vehicle technology testbed that will advance the state of the art in technologies directly relevant to future space transportation systems. There are currently two experimental, or "X" vehicle projects in the Pathfinder program, with additional projects expected to follow in the near future. The first Pathfinder project is X-34. X-34 is a suborbital rocket plane capable of flights to Mach 8 and 75 kilometers altitude. There are a number of reusable launch vehicle technologies embedded in the X-34 vehicle design, such as composite structures and propellant tanks, and advanced reusable thermal protection systems. In addition, X-34 is designed to carry experiments applicable to both the launch vehicle and hypersonic aeronautics community. X-34 is scheduled to fly later this year. The second Pathfinder project is the X-37. X-37 is an orbital space plane that is carried into orbit either by the Space Shuttle or by an expendable launch vehicle. X-37 provides NASA access to the orbital and orbital reentry flight regimes with an experimental testbed vehicle. The vehicle will expose embedded and carry-on advanced space transportation technologies to the extreme environments of orbit and reentry. Early atmospheric approach and landing tests of an unpowered version of the X-37 will begin next year, with orbital flights beginning in late 2001. Future-X Pathfinder is charting a course for the future with its growing fleet of low-cost X- vehicles. X-34 and X-37 are leading the assault on high launch costs and enabling the flight testing of technologies that will lead to affordable access to space.

London, John, III↗

Projecting Future Scheduled Airline Demand, Schedules and NGATS Benefits Using TSAM

The Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) developed by Virginia Tech s Air Transportation Systems Lab and NASA Langley can provide detailed analysis of the effects on the demand for air travel of a full range of NASA and FAA aviation projects. TSAM has been used to project the passenger demand for very light jet (VLJ) air taxi service, scheduled airline demand growth and future schedules, Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) benefits, and future passenger revenues for the Airport and Airway Trust Fund. TSAM can project the resulting demand when new vehicles and/or technology is inserted into the long distance (100 or more miles one-way) transportation system, as well as, changes in demand as a result of fare yield increases or decreases, airport transit times, scheduled flight times, ticket taxes, reductions or increases in flight delays, and so on. TSAM models all long distance travel in the contiguous U.S. and determines the mode choice of the traveler based on detailed trip costs, travel time, schedule frequency, purpose of the trip (business or non-business), and household income level of the traveler. Demand is modeled at the county level, with an airport choice module providing up to three airports as part of the mode choice. Future enplanements at airports can be projected for different scenarios. A Fratar algorithm and a schedule generator are applied to generate future flight schedules. This paper presents the application of TSAM to modeling future scheduled air passenger demand and resulting airline schedules, the impact of NGATS goals and objectives on passenger demand, along with projections for passenger fee receipts for several scenarios for the FAA Airport and Airway Trust Fund.

Dollyhigh, Samuel↗

A Review of State-of-the-Art Separator Materials for Advanced Lithium-Based Batteries for Future Aerospace Missions

As NASA embarks on a renewed human presence in space, safe, human-rated, electrical energy storage and power generation technologies, which will be capable of demonstrating reliable performance in a variety of unique mission environments, will be required. To address the future performance and safety requirements for the energy storage technologies that will enhance and enable future NASA Constellation Program elements and other future aerospace missions, advanced rechargeable, lithium-ion battery technology development is being pursued with an emphasis on addressing performance technology gaps between state-of-the-art capabilities and critical future mission requirements. The material attributes and related performance of a lithium-ion cell's internal separator component are critical for achieving overall optimal performance, safety and reliability. This review provides an overview of the general types, material properties and the performance and safety characteristics of current separator materials employed in lithium-ion batteries, such as those materials that are being assessed and developed for future aerospace missions.

Bladwin, Richard S.↗

Be/X-ray Binary Science for Future X-ray Timing Missions

For future missions, the Be/X-ray binary community needs to clearly define our science priorities for the future to advocate for their inclusion in future missions. In this talk, I will describe current designs for two potential future missions and Be X-ray binary science enabled by these designs. The Large Observatory For X-ray Timing (LOFT) is an X-ray timing mission selected in February 2011 for the assessment phase from the 2010 ESA M3 call for proposals. The Advanced X-ray Timing ARray (AXTAR) is a NASA explorer concept X-ray timing mission. This talk is intended to initiate discussions of our science priorities for the future.

Wilson-Hodge, Colleen A.↗

Sensitivity of Air Quality to Potential Future Climate Change and Emissions in the United States and Major Cities

Simulated present and future air quality is compared for the years 2006e2010 and 2048e2052 over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Regionally downscaled present and future climate results are developed using GISS and the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. Present and future emissions are estimated using MARKAL 9R model. O3 and PM(sub 2.5) sensitivities to precursor emissions for the years 2010 and 2050 are calculated using CMAQDDM (Direct Decoupled Method). We find major improvements in future U.S. air quality including generally decreased MDA8 (maximum daily 8-hr average O3) mixing ratios and PM(sub 2.5) concentrations and reduced frequency of NAAQS O3 standard exceedances in most major U.S. cities. The Eastern and Pacific U.S. experience the largest reductions in summertime seasonal average MDA8 (up to 12 ppb) with localized decreases in the 4th highest MDA8 of the year, decreasing by up to 25 ppb. Results from a Climate Penalty (CP) scenario isolate the impact of climate change on air quality and show that future climate change tends to increase O3 mixing ratios in some regions of the U.S., with climate change causing increases of over 10 ppb in the annual 4th highest MDA8 in Los Angeles. Seasonal average PM(sub 2.5) decreases (2-4 microgram m(exp -3)) over the Eastern U.S. are accounted for by decreases in sulfate and nitrate concentrations resulting from reduced mobile and point source emissions of NO(sub x) and SO(sub x).

Projecting emissions↗

Future Exploration of the South Pole as Enabled by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter

The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) launched in 2009 to collect the dataset required for future surface missions and to answer key questions about the lunar surface environment. In the first seven years of operations, the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) acquired over a million images of the lunar surface and collected key stereo observations for the production of meter-scale digital terrain models. Due to the configuration of the LRO orbit, LROC and the other onboard instruments have the opportunity to acquire observations at or near the poles every two hours. The lunar south polar region is an area of interest for future surface missions due to the benign thermal environment and areas of near-continuous illumination. These persistently illuminated regions are also adjacent to permanently shadowed areas (e.g. floors of craters and local depressions) that are of interest to both scientists and engineers prospecting for cold-trapped volatiles on or near the surface for future in situ resource utilization. Using a terramechanics model based on surface properties derived during the Apollo and Luna missions, we evaluated the accessibility of different science targets and the optimal traverse paths for a given set of waypoints. Assuming a rover that relies primarily on solar power, we identified a traverse that would keep the rover illuminated for 94.43% of the year between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2021. Throughout this year-long period, the longest eclipse endured by the rover would last only 101 hours and the rover would move a total of 22.11 km with an average speed of 2.5 m/hr (max speed=30 m/hr). During this time the rover would be able to explore a variety of targets along the connecting ridge between Shackleton and de Gerlache craters. In addition to the southern polar regions, we are also examining traverses around other key exploration sites such as Marius Hills, Ina-D, Rima Parry, and the Mairan Domes in efforts to aid future mission planners and assess the requirements for future roving prospectors (e.g., maximum speed, maximum slope, etc.).

Speyerer, Emerson J.↗

Evolution of Requirements and Assumptions for Future Exploration Missions

NASA programs are maturing technologies, systems, and architectures to enabling future exploration missions. To increase fidelity as technologies mature, developers must make assumptions that represent the requirements of a future program. Multiple efforts have begun to define these requirements, including team internal assumptions, planning system integration for early demonstrations, and discussions between international partners planning future collaborations. For many detailed life support system requirements, existing NASA documents set limits of acceptable values, but a future vehicle may be constrained in other ways, and select a limited range of conditions. Other requirements are effectively set by interfaces or operations, and may be different for the same technology depending on whether the hard-ware is a demonstration system on the International Space Station, or a critical component of a future vehicle. This paper highlights key assumptions representing potential life support requirements and explanations of the driving scenarios, constraints, or other issues that drive them.

Anderson, Molly↗

Supportability Challenges, Metrics, and Key Decisions for Future Human Spaceflight

Future crewed missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) represent a logistical challenge that is unprecedented in human space flight. Astronauts will travel farther and stay in space for longer than any previous mission, far from timely abort or resupply from Earth. Under these conditions, supportability { defined as the set of system characteristics that influence the logistics and support required to enable safe and effective operations of systems { will be a much more significant driver of space system lifecycle properties than it has been in the past. This paper presents an overview of supportability for future human space flight. The particular challenges of future missions are discussed, with the differences between past, present, and future missions highlighted. The relationship between supportability metrics and mission cost, performance, schedule, and risk is also discussed. A set of pro- posed strategies for managing supportability is presented (including reliability growth, uncertainty reduction, level of repair, commonality, redundancy, In-Space Manufacturing (ISM) (including the use of material recycling and In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) for spares and maintenance items), reduced complexity, and spares inventory decisions such as the use of predeployed or cached spares - along with a discussion of the potential impacts of each of those strategies. References are provided to various sources that describe these supportability metrics and strategies, as well as associated modeling and optimization techniques, in greater detail. Overall, supportability is an emergent system characteristic and a holistic challenge for future system development. System designers and mission planners must carefully consider and balance the supportability metrics and decisions described in this paper in order to enable safe and effective beyond-LEO human space flight.

Owens, Andrew C.↗

Hyper-Spectral Networking Concept of Operations and Future Air Traffic Management Simulations

The NASA sponsored Hyper-Spectral Communications and Networking for Air Traffic Management (ATM) (HSCNA) project is conducting research to improve the operational efficiency of the future National Airspace System (NAS) through diverse and secure multi-band, multi-mode, and millimeter-wave (mmWave) wireless links. Worldwide growth of air transportation and the coming of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) will increase air traffic density and complexity. Safe coordination of aircraft will require more capable technologies for communications, navigation, and surveillance (CNS). The HSCNA project will provide a foundation for technology and operational concepts to accommodate a significantly greater number of networked aircraft. This paper describes two of the HSCNA projects technical challenges. The first technical challenge is to develop a multi-band networking concept of operations (ConOps) for use in multiple phases of flight and all communication link types. This ConOps will integrate the advanced technologies explored by the HSCNA project and future operational concepts into a harmonized vision of future NAS communications and networking. The second technical challenge discussed is to conduct simulations of future ATM operations using multi-bandmulti-mode networking and technologies. Large-scale simulations will assess the impact, compared to todays system, of the new and integrated networks and technologies under future air traffic demand.

communication link modeling↗

Past and Future Drought in Mongolia

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming.

drought projection↗

Curating NASA's Past, Present, and Future Extraterrestrial Sample Collections

As codified in NASA Policy Directive 7100.10F, the Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office at NASA Johnson Space Center (hereafter JSC Curation) is charged with curation of all extraterrestrial material under NASA control, including future NASA missions. JSC Curation curates all or part of nine astromaterial collections in seven clean room suites: (1) Apollo Samples (1969; ISO 6-7), (2) Luna Samples (from USSR; 1972; ISO 7), (3) Antarctic Meteorites (1976; ISO 7), (4) Cosmic Dust (1981; ISO 5), (5) Microparticle Impact Collection (formerly called Space Exposed Hardware; 1985; ISO 5), (6) Genesis Solar Wind Atoms (2004; ISO 4); (7) Stardust Comet Particles (2006; ISO 5), (8) Stardust Interstellar Particles (2006; ISO 5), (9) Hayabusa Asteroid Particles (from JAXA; 2010; ISO 5). In addition to the labs that house the samples, we have installed and maintained a wide variety of facilities and infrastructure required to support the clean-rooms: more than 10 different HEPA-filtered air-handling systems, ultrapure dry gaseous nitrogen systems, an ultrapure water system (UPW) and cleaning facilities to provide clean tools and equipment for the labs. We also have sample preparation facilities for making thin sections, microtome sections, and even focused ion-beam (FIB) sections to meet the research requirements of scientists. To ensure that we are keeping the samples as pristine as possible, we routinely monitor the cleanliness of our clean rooms and infrastructure systems. This monitoring includes: daily monitoring of the quality of our UPW, weekly airborne particle counts in the labs, monthly monitoring of the stable isotope composition of the gaseous N2 system, and annual measurements of inorganic or organic contamination in processing cabinets. We track within our databases the current and ever-changing characteristics of more than 250,000 individual samples across our various collections (including the 19,141 samples on loan to 433 Principal Investigators in 24 countries). The next sample return missions that NASA will participate in are Hayabusa2 and OSIRIS-REx (Origins Spectral Interpretation Resource Identification Security - Regolith Explorer). The designs for a new state-of-the-art suite of clean rooms to house these samples at JSC have been finalized. This includes separate ISO class 5 clean rooms to house each collection, a common ISO class 7 area for general use, an ISO class 7 microtome laboratory, and a separate thin section lab. Additionally, a new cleaning facility is being designed and procedures developed that will allow for enhanced cleaning of cabinets and tools in an inorganically, organically, and biologically clean manner. We are also designing a large multi-purpose Advanced Curation laboratory that will allow us to develop the techniques necessary to fully support the Hayabusa2 and OSIRIS-REx missions, as well as future possible sample return missions (e.g., Lunar Polar Volatiles, Mars, Comet Surface). A micro-CT (micro Computed Tomography) laboratory dedicated to the study of astromaterials has come online within JSC Curation, and we plan to add additional facilities that will enable non-destructive (or minimally-destructive) analyses of astromaterials in the near future (e.g., micro-XRF (micro X-Ray Fluorescence), confocal imaging Raman Spectroscopy). These facilities will be available to: (1) develop sample handling and storage techniques for future sample return missions, (2) be utilized by PET (Positron Emission Tomography) for future sample return missions, (3) for retroactive PET-style analyses of our existing collections, and (4) for periodic assessments of the existing sample collections.

Zeigler, Ryan A.↗

Future of the North American Carbon Cycle: Chapter - 19

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, primarily due to fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, are expected to continue to drive changes in both climate and the terrestrial and ocean carbon cycles. Over the past two-to-three decades, there has been considerable effort to understand how terrestrial and oceanic systems behave (in response to rising atmospheric CO2 and changing climate conditions), quantify the dynamics of system responses to environmental change, and project how the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycle will interact with, and influence, future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate. In this presentation, we will summarize key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and drivers and associated consequences of these changes, as reported in Chapter 19 of the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). The findings not only capture projections of emissions from fossil fuel and changes in land cover and land use, but also highlight the decline in future carbon uptake capacity of North American carbon reservoirs and soil carbon losses from the Northern high-latitudes. Such a discussion of future carbon cycle changes is new in SOCCR-2, yet timely. It underlines the progress made since the release of the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-1) in 2007 in identifying the vulnerability of key carbon pools and their co-evolution with changing climatic conditions. We will also discuss key knowledge gaps and outline a set of future research priorities, including both monitoring and modeling activities, that are necessary to improve projections of future changes to the North American carbon cycle and associated adaptation and resource-management decisions.

North America↗

Using X-Ray Computed Tomography as a Tool for Preliminary Examination Tool of Current and Future Extraterrestrial Sample Return Missions

The Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office at the Johnson Space Center is the past, present, and future home of all of NASA’s astromaterials sample collections. The primary goals of the curation office are to maintain the long-term integrity of the samples and ensure that the samples are distributed for scientific study in a fair, timely, and responsible manner, thus maximizing the return on each sample. Part of the curation process is planning for the future. To this end, we perform fundamental research in advanced curation initiatives to better prepared for future sample return missions. Advanced Curation is tasked with developing procedures, technology, and data sets necessary for curating new sample collections, or getting new results from existing sample collections. As part of these advanced curation efforts, we have installed and are operating a Nikon XTH 320 X-ray Computed Tomography(XCT) system in the JSC curation office with four interchangeable X-ray sources, a large-area detector, and a heavy-duty stage. These instrument characteristics allow us exceptional flexibility to analyze a wide range of sample sizes, from sub-mm soil particles to rocks >10 cm in diameter. The penetrative nature of the XCT scans allows for astromaterials samples to be analyzed within sealed low-density containers (e.g., Teflon bags), preserving the pristinity of the samples. We have begun scanning of the Apollo and Antarctic Meteorite sample suites in order to non-destructively map out lithic clasts (and other features) within the samples. The data from these scans will be made available to scientists via the JSC curation website and the Astromaterials Curation Newsletter. We anticipate sample requests from these “new” lithic clasts identified in these “old” samples. We also anticipate that XCT analyses like these would be useful for future sample return missions, like the OSIRIS REx mission, as well as future sample return missions.

Zeigler, Ryan↗

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

Krause, A.↗

Strategic Perspectives on the Future of Systems Engineering at NASA

NASA’s Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) Infusion and Modernization Initiative (MIAMI) chartered a strategy group comprising early to mid-career NASA subject matter experts with diverse experiences to look into the future of systems engineering at NASA. The purpose of the group was to provide a vision for the future state of systems engineering practices and to develop a strategic plan to enable the evolution of the art up to 20 years in the future. The group used a design thinking approach to gather ideas and obtained insight into current engineering processes and domain outlook by interviewing engineers of varying expertise and experiences who had worked on teams of different sizes for missions large and small. The group built a roadmap to highlight future needs, projected capabilities, and technology and competency gaps and developed a strategic plan to ensure the expedient introduction of these capabilities. The resulting strategic plan recommends capability development and workforce strategies and provides guidance for Agency-wide SE policy. Artifacts, details, and raw data from the strategy team’s work are contained in NASA/TM-20205002911/SUPPL, Strategic Perspectives on the Future of Systems Engineering at NASA: Supplemental Information: Appendixes A to K.

Anupa R Bajwa↗